Future Challenges in Transport 1) Global Trends in Transportation 2) Potential for Public Transport 3) Potential for Non-motorised Transport 4) ITDP‘s Future Program for Urban Africa
BAQ Meeting Nairobi October 21st-23rd 2008
OUR PARTNERS
The World Bank (Washington /USA)
ITDP New York -
GTZ -
Institute for Transport and Development Policy (USA)
German Technical Agency
ITDP Europe – Country Offices Uganda, Senegal
Gtkp – Global Transport Knowledge Partnership
ECF
I-CE - Interface for
European Cyclist Federation
Cycling Expertise (The Netherlands)
UNDP / UNEP / UNHABITAT
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Global Trends in Transportation
Oil Dependence 500.0
° ÍÙ ¶ ò ÖMillion tons
400.0
Oil Demand from Transportation Oil de m a nd
300.0
Supply Gap 200.0
100.0
0.0 2000
2010
2020
2030
2050
Domestic Production Capacity
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Global Trends in Transportation
PETERSEN, Rudolf, 2008: „Transport Demand Reduction“, 5
Global Trends in Transportation
Source: GTZ Sourcebook Sustainable Transport 2004
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Global Trends in Transportation
Urbanisation:
How to move billions of citizens?
Global Trends in Transportation
Congestion is serious
Average speed less than 15km/hour Big percentage of idling
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Global Trends in Transportation
Relation between urban density and car use
Source: Newman/ Kenworthy Courve in Petersen, Rudolf, 2008: „Transport Demand Reduction“, p.15
Global Trends in Transportation
How Road Capacity Expansion Generates Traffic
(Litman, 2001)
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Global Trends in Transportation
Unprecedented road investments
View form the World Bank Office in Beijing / China
(Source: GTZ Urban Transport 2007)
Global Trends in Transportation >>>Cities with more highways tend to have more congestion >>>Congestion costs are significantly lower in cities with multi-modal transport systems (Litman, 2001)
Congestion costs compared (USA, Litman 2004)
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Global Trends in Transportation
Land Use Characteristics
(Kenworthy/Laube 2001) in Petersen, 2008: „Transport Demand Reduction“
Global Trends in Transportation
Integrated Transport & Land Use Planning... ...to utilize the optimum use of each mode of transport ...to reduce transport costs ...to make transport more social ...to reduce green house gas emissions ...to reduce the dependancy on the automobile
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Global Trends in Transportation
Africa - Urbanisation: (a) Uganda’s population - growth: 3 % - From 27 million today to 37 million in 15 years – reaching 64 million in 2030 (b) Urbanisation & Suburbanisation*: - GKMA contains 2,3 million inh., expected to grow to 3,6 million in 15 y. - 4,5%: among the highest rates worldwide - highest growth within the poor part of the urban population - suburbanisation will increase distances for low-income earners *Source: The State of East Africa Report, Society for Intern. Development 2006 and National Transport Master Plan MoWHC, Kampala 2005
Global Trends in Transportation
Africa - Urbanisation: Urban population in slums (in %; The State of East Africa Report, Society for Intern. Development 2006) 100 80
73
71
SSA
Kenya
92
93
Tanzania
Uganda
60 40
32
20 0 World
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Global Trends in Transportation
Africa – Facts •The region has had relatively good growth and there is a rising middle class – who want to buy cars •Car ownership and status are a big issue •Very weak institutional arrangements – especially local government •Very weak tax base •Planning is nonexistent
Huge opportunity to intervene before cities get locked into an unsustainable urban form
Global Trends in Transportation
The 5 key ways to achieve sustainable transport Transport Demand Reduction
Modal Shift
-Focus landuse on reducing transport Distances
-Better public transport ( BRT)
-Parking Reform -Road/Congestion Charging, Incentives, taxes Carsharing, homebased work
-Increased cycling and walking -Improved interfaces NMT/PT -hinder urban car use, removing highways
Urban Revitali -sation
-Develop liveable and prioductive cities -„Cities for people cot cars“
Freight & Logistics
Technological Options
- Change -Fuel efficient production, engines Distribution and Consumption -Alternative patterns; fuels increase transport cost -„Re-inventing the car“
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Global Trends in Transportation
Public Transport Systems Pedestrians
Taxis Travel always takes place in a
Cyclists/ Bicycles
E
„Transport Chain“
Private Automobiles
Integration in Land Use Planning
Potential for Public Transport
Mass Rapid Transit: Bus, Rail, Light Rail, Subway, Trolleybus, Tram, BRT, Paratransit
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Potential for Public Transport Paratransit Services Services are usually unscheduled Vehicles are typically small and very simple
Dar Es Salaam current transit system
In some cities like Damascus, Syria, small vehicles totally dominate the market The vehicles used are often old, having been retired from other countries Small capital investment necessary to enter the business Paratransit vehicles have a high accident rate
Potential for Public Transport
High efficiency of Buses
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Potential for Public Transport
High efficiency of Buses CO2 Emissions of various transportation mode (g/person-km) 150 120 90 60 30 0 Normal CarOther Other Taxi CarMinibuses Bus BRT BRT Rail Rail TaxiBike Taxi Bike Bike Car Bus
Potential for Public Transport
Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) Coordination with paratransit to create new services to the bus stations
Segregated bus ways
Clean bus technologies
Modal integration at stations
LOGIT
Excellence in customer service
Rapid boarding through multidoor buses Transit priorisation at intersections
Former paratransit operators to operate the buses / higher profits with less work
Source:
Efficient preboard fare collection
Clean, secure and comfortable stations Sophisticated marketing identity
Clear and prominent signage and real-time information displays
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Potential for Public Transport
Types of Bus Rapid Transit (BRT)
Source: BRT Planning Guide 2007
Potential for Public Transport
Values of the investment Comparison Rail-BRT
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Potential for Public Transport
Passenger Capacities of different MRTs Line
Type
Peak Capacity (Passengers / hour / direction)
Hong Kong
Subway
81,000
Sao Paulo East Line
60,000
Santiago La Moneda
36,000
London Victoria Line Sao Paulo 9 de julho
25,000 Busway
61,000
Bogota Transmilenio
53,000
Porto Alegre
33,000
Curitiba Eixo Sul
15,100
Bangkok BTS
Rail
Mexico Line B Kuala Lumpur Putra
50,000 39,300
Light rail
30,000
Potential for Public Transport
Cost-Effectiveness of various transportation modes
Source: GTZ Sourcebook Sustainable Transport, Module 3b: Bus Rapid Transit
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Potential for Non-motorised Transport
Potential for Non-motorised Transport (Focus: Cycling)
Potential for Non-motorised Transport
Global Role of Cycling Nairobi
Dar Es Salaa Ougadougou( Morogoro (TanTamale (GhanJinja (Uganda 0,5Urban Bicycle 3 20 African Cities 45 27 Share17in selected
O
ug ad ou M or go og Ta u( D Ji or ar Bu m nj o al Es a rk (T e (U i n an (G Sa N a ga ai z h Fa la an nd a ro a n so m ia bi a) a ) ) )
(Source: Rwenbangira 2003 et.al.)
0
10
20
30
40
50
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Potential for Non-motorised Transport
Cycling in Europe 1920
1790
1860
Potential for Non-motorised Transport
Cycling in Europe: History and recent renaissance
Trendline of bicycle share in urban traffic in Europe 1920–2000
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Potential for Non-motorised Transport
NMT in Europe: Cycling Rates
Source: EEA, 2008
Potential for Non-motorised Transport
What are the strengths and weaknesses of NMT (Cycling)?
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Potential for Non-motorised Transport
(1) Cycling and walking are the most affordable ways of being mobile in a city
Unit costs of travel per passengerkilometre (RWEBANGIRA 2000) Mode of transport
US$-cts per passengerkm
Bicycle
2
Walking
3
Public transport (bus)
4
Individual motorised transport (car)
30
Potential for Non-motorised Transport
(2) Bicycles & pedestrians are efficient users of scarce road space, helping to avoid congestion
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Potential for Non-motorised Transport
(3) NMT fills the gap in the urban transport chain: The mayority of urban and rural trips are within a radius of 6 km and trips are combined with the transport of relatively small quantities.
Potential for Non-motorised Transport
(4) The Bicycle-sector offers various job opportunities
Boda-Boda Bike Taxis in Uganda
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Potential for Non-motorised Transport
The Five Pro‘s of Cycling
Potential for Non-motorised Transport
Bogota‘s „Bicycle Masterplan“ Bogota Best Practice Example -400 km Bicycle –LaneNetwork -Feeder to BRT Terminals -Increase of modal share of cycling from 0 to 5,5% -significant increase in the 9perception of air quality 9social security 9road safety and 9individual health
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ITDP‘s Future Program for Urban Africa
ITDP‘s Future Program for Urban Africa
BRT AFRICA The most critical issue for Africa is to get a successful BRT system running in South Africa and Tanzania – to prove that mass transit (publicly organized; privately operated) can work in Africa and give the rest of the sub-continent an example
ITDP‘s Future Program for Urban Africa
Improving Mass Transit z
To get Dar and Johannesburg / Cape Town BRT open and running
z
Documenting those processes for best practices
z
To have at least 4 more cities pursuing BRT and NMT projects (Kampala)
Improving Non-Motorized Transport z
To get 3 high quality NMT projects completed
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ITDP‘s Future Program for Urban Africa
Managing Traffic Demand z
Pursue congestion charging in South Africa
Improving Urban Accessibility z
To get one innovative urban design project built
Cross Cutting Issues z z z z
Institutionalize ITDP – create regional office / country office To foster more regional sharing and capacity building Communications To have an African city win the Sustainable Transport Award
ITDP‘s Future Program for Urban Africa
Regional Sharing & Capacity Building Partners: Rockefeller Foundation, DfiD, GTZ, ICE, GAEM, UNEP… Regional: work with SSATP and other regional bodies on drafting a sustainable urban transportation policy for SSA South Africa: Work on national policy setting Uganda: Work on BRT and NMT in GKMA …..
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Thank you for your attention !
Marienburger Str.20, 10405 Berlin / Germany Tel. +49-(0)4104-996060 Email.
[email protected], www.itdp-europe.org
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