OVERVIEW

REAL SECTOR

1

2

3

FISCAL OPERATIONS

4

5

6

7

MONEY, CREDIT AND INTEREST RATES

8

9

10

11

12

13

CAPITAL MARKETS DEVELOPMENTS

INTERNATIONAL TRADE AND PAYMENTS

14

INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS

15

16

17

18

TABLE 1 FINANCIAL SURVEY Period

2012

2013

2015

2014

Mar.

Jun.

2016 Sept.

Dec.

Mar.

Jun.

(B$ Millions) Net foreign assets Central Bank Domestic Banks Net domestic assets Domestic credit Public sector Government (net) Rest of public sector Private sector Other items (net) Monetary liabilities Money Currency Demand deposits Quasi-money Fixed deposits Savings deposits Foreign currency

209.2 810.2 (600.9)

46.7 741.6 (694.9)

286.4 787.7 (501.2)

364.5 829.1 (464.6)

482.1 953.1 (471.1)

300.9 826.8 (525.8)

280.2 811.9 (531.7)

482.6 994.9 (512.4)

656.2 1,052.1 (395.9)

6,094.6 8,691.3 2,062.9 1,594.8 468.2 6,628.4 (2,596.7)

6,270.6 8,957.1 2,406.0 1,946.6 459.4 6,551.1 (2,686.5)

6,103.7 8,870.5 2,503.6 2,024.0 479.7 6,366.9 (2,766.8)

6,087.1 8,840.9 2,512.1 2,017.7 494.5 6,328.8 (2,753.9)

5,988.1 8,808.9 2,500.9 2,007.6 493.3 6,308.0 (2,820.8)

6,152.4 8,987.6 2,673.6 2,172.6 500.9 6,314.1 (2,835.2)

6,093.7 8,966.2 2,666.4 2,198.0 468.4 6,299.7 (2,872.4)

6,016.4 8,903.0 2,617.1 2,153.5 463.5 6,285.9 (2,886.6)

5,921.1 8,810.8 2,574.4 2,100.9 473.5 6,236.4 (2,889.6)

6,303.7 1,574.9 216.5 1,358.4 4,728.8 3,444.1 1,069.0 215.7

6,317.2 1,641.2 214.4 1,426.8 4,676.0 3,288.0 1,114.0 274.0

6,390.0 1,995.7 232.8 1,762.9 4,394.3 3,101.9 1,067.5 224.8

6,451.4 2,054.5 232.9 1,821.5 4,397.0 3,026.5 1,099.3 271.2

6,470.0 2,109.9 232.3 1,877.6 4,360.2 3,006.0 1,128.4 225.8

6,453.2 2,087.3 225.8 1,861.5 4,365.8 3,006.7 1,144.8 214.3

6,373.8 2,071.2 246.6 1,824.7 4,302.6 2,966.5 1,148.3 187.8

6,498.8 2,143.1 246.9 1,896.1 4,355.8 2,970.9 1,178.5 206.4

6,577.2 2,198.0 247.6 1,950.4 4,379.2 2,931.2 1,217.3 230.7

(percentage changes) Total domestic credit Public sector Government (net) Rest of public sector Private sector

1.7 8.8 10.6 2.9 (0.3)

3.1 16.6 22.1 (1.9) (1.2)

(1.0) 4.1 4.0 4.4 (2.8)

(0.3) 0.3 (0.3) 3.1 (0.6)

(0.4) (0.4) (0.5) (0.2) (0.3)

2.0 6.9 8.2 1.6 0.1

(0.2) (0.3) 1.2 (6.5) (0.2)

(0.7) (1.9) (2.0) (1.0) (0.2)

(1.0) (1.6) (2.4) 2.2 (0.8)

Monetary liabilities Money Currency Demand deposits Quasi-money

(0.1) 9.7 9.8 9.7 (3.0)

0.2 4.2 (0.9) 5.0 (1.1)

1.2 21.6 8.6 23.6 (6.0)

1.0 2.9 0.0 3.3 0.1

0.3 2.7 (0.3) 3.1 (0.8)

(0.3) (1.1) (2.8) (0.9) 0.1

(1.2) (0.8) 9.2 (2.0) (1.4)

2.0 3.5 0.1 3.9 1.2

1.2 2.6 0.3 2.9 0.5

Source: The Central Bank of The Bahamas

19

TABLE 2 MONETARY SURVEY Period

2012

2013

2015

2014

Mar.

Jun.

2016 Sept.

Dec.

Mar.

Jun.

(B$ Millions) Net foreign assets Central Bank Commercial banks Net domestic assets Domestic credit Public sector Government (net) Rest of public sector Private sector Other items (net) Monetary liabilities Money Currency Demand deposits Quasi-money Savings deposits Fixed deposits Foreign currency deposits

215.1 810.2 (595.1)

76.4 741.6 (665.2)

334.2 787.7 (453.5)

414.6 829.1 (414.5)

538.3 953.1 (414.9)

376.7 826.8 (450.0)

360.1 811.9 (451.8)

571.6 994.9 (423.4)

750.1 1,052.1 (302.0)

6,034.1 8,661.9 2,050.1 1,582.4 467.7 6,611.8 (2,627.8)

6,189.3 8,929.8 2,396.6 1,937.7 458.9 6,533.2 (2,740.5)

6,002.0 8,837.0 2,492.5 2,013.2 479.3 6,344.5 (2,834.9)

5,973.3 8,795.6 2,500.9 2,006.8 494.1 6,294.7 (2,822.3)

5,863.7 8,766.4 2,480.5 1,987.6 492.9 6,285.9 (2,902.7)

6,014.2 8,954.7 2,662.9 2,162.3 500.6 6,291.8 (2,940.5)

5,956.8 8,926.2 2,653.2 2,187.2 466.0 6,273.0 (2,969.4)

5,874.7 8,858.2 2,607.2 2,146.0 461.2 6,251.0 (2,983.5)

5,769.9 8,767.1 2,563.5 2,092.4 471.2 6,203.5 (2,997.2)

6,249.0 1,541.9 216.5 1,325.4 4,707.1 1,069.0 3,428.4 209.7

6,265.6 1,610.9 214.4 1,396.5 4,654.7 1,114.0 3,266.7 274.0

6,336.1 1,955.0 232.8 1,722.2 4,381.1 1,067.5 3,088.8 224.8

6,387.7 2,014.8 232.9 1,781.8 4,372.9 1,099.3 3,013.7 259.9

6,401.9 2,053.7 232.3 1,821.5 4,348.1 1,128.4 2,994.0 225.8

6,390.8 2,037.4 225.8 1,811.6 4,353.5 1,144.8 2,994.3 214.3

6,316.8 2,024.9 246.6 1,778.3 4,291.9 1,148.3 2,955.9 187.8

6,446.1 2,101.0 246.9 1,854.0 4,345.1 1,178.5 2,960.2 206.4

6,519.9 2,155.6 247.6 1,908.0 4,364.3 1,216.5 2,917.1 230.7

(percentage change) Total domestic credit Public sector Government (net) Rest of public sector Private sector

1.7 8.6 10.5 2.9 (0.3)

3.1 16.9 22.5 (1.9) (1.2)

(1.0) 4.0 3.9 4.4 (2.9)

(0.5) 0.3 (0.3) 3.1 (0.8)

(0.3) (0.8) (1.0) (0.2) (0.1)

2.1 7.4 8.8 1.6 0.1

(0.3) (0.4) 1.2 (6.9) (0.3)

(0.8) (1.7) (1.9) (1.0) (0.4)

(1.0) (1.7) (2.5) 2.2 (0.8)

Monetary liabilities Money Currency Demand deposits Quasi-money

(0.3) 9.5 9.9 9.4 (3.1)

0.3 4.5 (0.9) 5.4 (1.1)

1.1 21.4 8.6 23.3 (5.9)

0.8 3.1 0.0 3.5 (0.2)

0.2 1.9 (0.3) 2.2 (0.6)

(0.2) (0.8) (2.8) (0.5) 0.1

(1.2) (0.6) 9.2 (1.8) (1.4)

2.0 3.8 0.1 4.3 1.2

1.1 2.6 0.3 2.9 0.4

Source: The Central Bank of The Bahamas

20

TABLE 3 CENTRAL BANK BALANCE SHEET Period Net foreign assets Balances with banks abroad Foreign securities Reserve position in the Fund SDR holdings Net domestic assets Net claims on Government Claims Treasury bills Bahamas registered stock Loans and advances Deposits In local currency In foreign currency Deposits of rest of public sector Credit to commercial banks Official capital and surplus Net unclassified assets Loans to rest of public sector Public Corp Bonds/Securities Liabilities To Domestic Banks Notes and coins Deposits SDR allocation Currency held by the private sector

2012 810.2 216.5 555.6 9.6 28.4 280.1 397.3 407.4 129.7 171.3 106.3 (10.1) (10.1) (14.8) (135.7) 23.0 4.8 5.6 (682.6) (127.4) (555.2) (191.2) (216.5)

2013 741.6 122.4 551.0 9.6 58.6 374.7 493.1 545.3 186.6 223.5 135.2 (52.1) (52.1) (11.7) (140.0) 23.0 4.6 5.7 (710.3) (138.1) (572.2) (191.6) (214.4)

2014 787.7 155.2 544.9 9.1 78.5 375.6 523.4 571.4 119.7 316.5 135.2 (48.0) (48.0) (26.0) (152.3) 21.1 4.2 5.2 (750.2) (142.5) (607.7) (180.3) (232.8)

2015 Mar. 829.1 186.1 559.6 8.6 74.7 304.8 458.7 485.3 76.7 273.1 135.4 (26.6) (26.6) (14.5) (156.7) 7.9 4.2 5.2 (729.3) (112.5) (616.9) (171.6) (232.9)

Source: The Central Bank of The Bahamas

21

Jun. 953.1 308.1 560.1 8.8 76.1 245.3 402.7 429.0 22.9 270.5 135.6 (26.3) (26.3) (17.6) (155.0) 5.9 4.1 5.2 (791.2) (109.8) (681.4) (175.0) (232.3)

Sept. 826.8 212.3 529.7 8.8 76.0 277.8 436.0 457.2 54.7 266.7 135.8 (21.2) (21.2) (20.8) (155.4) 8.9 3.9 5.2 (704.1) (108.5) (595.6) (174.7) (225.8)

Dec. 811.9 206.6 521.7 8.7 75.0 340.6 493.7 523.1 126.6 261.1 135.4 (29.4) (29.4) (17.3) (163.7) 19.0 3.7 5.2 (733.5) (142.4) (591.1) (172.4) (246.6)

(B$ Millions) 2016 Mar. Jun. 994.9 380.1 511.5 27.2 76.2 333.1 490.1 511.3 114.2 261.5 135.5 (21.2) (21.2) (13.6) (162.4) 10.2 3.7 5.2 (905.8) (113.9) (791.9) (175.3) (246.9)

1,052.1 389.6 559.9 27.0 75.7 387.3 546.4 568.9 171.7 261.5 135.7 (22.5) (22.5) (17.8) (162.9) 12.9 3.6 5.2 (1,017.8) (96.9) (920.9) (174.0) (247.6)

TABLE 4 DOMESTIC BANKS BALANCE SHEET Period Net foreign assets Net claims on Central Bank Notes and Coins Balances Less Central Bank credit Net domestic assets Net claims on Government Treasury bills Other securities Loans and advances Less: deposits Net claims on rest of public sector Securities Loans and advances Less: deposits Other net claims Credit to the private sector Securities Mortgages Loans and advances Private capital and surplus Net unclassified assets Liabilities to private sector Demand deposits Savings deposits Fixed deposits

2012

2013

2014

2015 Mar.

Jun.

Sept.

Dec.

(B$ Millions) 2016 Mar. Jun.

(600.9)

(694.9)

(501.2)

(464.6)

(471.1)

(525.8)

(531.7)

(512.4)

690.7 127.4 563.3 -

651.7 138.1 513.6 -

749.2 142.5 606.7 -

729.9 112.5 617.4 -

792.1 109.8 682.3 -

704.8 108.5 596.2 -

730.0 142.4 587.5 -

906.5 113.9 792.6 -

(395.9) 1,018.7 96.9 921.8 -

5,586.1 1,197.5 219.3 961.1 152.4 135.3 61.2 119.4 338.5 396.6 14.7 6,628.4 14.1 3,275.4 3,338.9 (2,523.4) 207.7

5,803.7 1,453.5 392.4 962.2 253.6 154.7 118.6 119.4 329.8 330.6 56.4 6,551.1 16.6 3,310.3 3,224.2 (2,586.4) 210.6

5,537.6 1,500.5 454.5 907.0 352.1 213.1 124.6 219.0 251.3 345.7 24.8 6,366.9 16.8 3,211.4 3,138.7 (2,499.2) 20.0

5,564.0 1,559.0 502.5 923.4 356.5 223.5 110.3 219.0 266.0 374.7 50.7 6,328.8 16.7 3,187.9 3,124.2 (2,509.0) 24.1

5,543.1 1,604.9 556.3 940.0 362.2 253.6 128.0 219.0 264.9 356.0 11.0 6,308.0 16.8 3,179.9 3,111.3 (2,551.6) 42.8

5,670.9 1,736.6 699.6 922.4 371.4 256.7 135.1 219.0 272.8 356.7 15.8 6,314.1 18.1 3,171.2 3,124.8 (2,556.6) 25.9

5,569.8 1,704.4 662.6 895.4 416.8 270.5 117.6 221.0 238.4 341.8 43.9 6,299.7 24.4 3,164.7 3,110.7 (2,651.2) 55.5

5,499.6 1,663.5 680.0 892.3 419.2 328.1 110.1 221.2 233.6 344.6 25.7 6,285.9 25.8 3,165.8 3,094.4 (2,600.8) 15.2

5,325.1 1,554.5 627.8 889.6 404.9 367.8 100.9 218.9 245.8 363.9 18.6 6,236.4 26.7 3,139.8 3,069.9 (2,601.5) 16.3

5,675.8 1,442.7 1,074.2 3,159.0

5,760.6 1,593.5 1,119.9 3,047.1

5,785.5 1,830.6 1,074.1 2,880.8

5,829.3 1,932.4 1,106.2 2,790.6

5,864.2 1,957.7 1,136.5 2,770.0

5,849.9 1,922.4 1,158.5 2,768.9

5,768.1 1,868.3 1,162.0 2,737.8

5,893.7 1,949.9 1,195.6 2,748.3

5,948.0 1,998.5 1,234.7 2,714.8

Source: The Central Bank of The Bahamas

22

TABLE 5 PROFIT AND LOSS ACCOUNTS OF BANKS IN THE BAHAMAS* (B$'000s)

Period

2012

2013

2014

2014 Qtr. I

Qtr. II

2015

Qtr. III

Qtr. IV

Qtr. I

Qtr. II

Qtr. III

Qtr. IV

Qtr. I

1. Interest Income

667,055

646,083

617,808

153,222

154,951

154,028

155,607

148,510

156,468

160,233

161,209

158,211

2. Interest Expense

144,897

117,811

98,321

25,101

24,729

24,845

23,646

21,307

21,850

21,273

20,984

20,807

3. Interest Margin (1-2)

522,158

528,272

519,487

128,121

130,222

129,183

131,961

127,203

134,618

138,960

140,225

137,404

23,005

23,278

22,484

3,445

6,267

6,291

6,481

5,657

11,373

5,590

6,910

5,756

5. Gross Earnings Margin (3+4)

545,163

551,550

541,971

131,566

136,489

135,474

138,442

132,860

145,991

144,550

147,135

143,160

6. 7. 8. 9.

162,348 29,744 111,914 304,006

181,910 30,120 132,475 344,505

171,579 27,797 279,278 478,654

43,140 6,341 41,325 90,806

43,367 6,836 155,190 205,393

42,484 6,714 40,715 89,913

42,588 7,906 42,048 92,542

42,852 7,043 38,156 88,051

45,619 7,235 39,715 92,569

41,628 6,944 34,005 82,577

40,297 5,796 38,753 84,846

40,906

10. Net Earnings Margin (5-9)

241,157

207,045

63,317

40,760

(68,904)

45,561

45,900

44,809

53,422

61,973

62,289

56,135

11. Depreciation Costs 12. Provisions for Bad Debt 13. Other Income

13,364 168,098 88,284

16,969 149,114 98,023

14,637 266,624 103,893

3,677 27,392 23,592

3,556 149,450 25,032

3,633 32,720 27,297

3,771 57,062 27,972

4,005 42,791 27,284

4,021 36,705 24,456

4,231 25,659 27,866

3,512 27,419 31,657

20,347

14. Other Income (Net) (13-11-12)

(93,178) (68,060)

(177,368)

(7,477)

(127,974)

(9,056)

(32,861)

(19,512)

(16,270)

(2,024)

726

8,780

15. Net Income (10+14)

147,979

(114,051)

33,283

(196,878)

36,505

13,039

25,297

37,152

59,949

63,015

64,915

6.83

6.80

6.96

6.68

6.88

6.92

7.28

7.20

7.12

7.24

5.21 0.23 5.44 3.61 1.84 1.04

5.35 0.45 5.81 3.68 2.12 1.48

5.56 0.22 5.78 3.30 2.48 2.40

5.63 0.28 5.91 3.41 2.50 2.53

5.44 0.23 5.67 3.45 2.22 2.57

4. Commission & Forex Income

Staff Costs Occupancy Costs Other Operating Costs Operating Costs (6+7+8)

16. Effective Interest Rate Spread (%)

6.41

138,985 6.85

6,883 39,236

87,025

3,632 32,759

(Ratios To Average Assets) Interest Margin Commission & Forex Income Gross Earnings Margin Operating Costs Net Earnings Margin Net Income/Loss

5.41 0.24 5.65 3.15 2.50 1.53

5.42 0.22 5.64 3.68 1.96 1.43

5.31 0.23 5.54 4.89 0.65 -1.16

5.24 0.14 5.39 3.72 1.67 1.36

*Commercial Banks and OLFIs with domestic operations

Source: The Central Bank of The Bahamas

23

5.32 0.26 5.58 8.39 (2.81) (8.04)

5.27 0.26 5.53 3.67 1.86 1.49

5.40 0.27 5.67 3.79 1.88 0.53

TABLE 6 MONEY SUPPLY (B$ Millions) End of Period

2012

2013

2014

1,574.9

1,641.2

216.5

2015

2016

Mar.

Jun.

Sept.

Dec.

Mar.

Jun.

1,995.7

2,054.5

2,109.9

2,087.3

2,071.2

2,143.1

2,198.0

214.4

232.8

232.9

232.3

225.8

246.6

246.9

247.6

1,358.4 14.8 1,343.6

1,426.8 11.7 1,415.1

1,762.9 26.0 1,736.9

1,821.5 14.5 1,807.0

1,877.6 17.6 1,860.0

1,861.5 20.8 1,840.8

1,824.7 17.3 1,807.3

1,896.1 13.6 1,882.6

1,950.4 17.8 1,932.7

1) Net credit to Government Central Bank Domestic banks

1,594.8 397.3 1,197.5

1,946.6 493.1 1,453.5

2,024.0 523.4 1,500.5

2,017.7 458.7 1,559.0

2,007.6 402.7 1,604.9

2,172.6 436.0 1,736.6

2,198.0 493.7 1,704.4

2,153.5 490.1 1,663.5

2,100.9 546.4 1,554.5

2) Other credit Rest of public sector Private sector

7,096.6 468.2 6,628.4

7,010.5 459.4 6,551.1

6,846.5 479.7 6,366.9

6,823.3 494.5 6,328.8

6,801.3 493.3 6,308.0

6,815.0 500.9 6,314.1

6,768.1 468.4 6,299.7

6,749.5 463.5 6,285.9

6,709.9 473.5 6,236.4

810.2

741.6

787.7

829.1

953.1

826.8

811.9

994.9

1,052.1

(600.9)

(694.9)

(501.2)

(464.6)

(471.1)

(525.8)

(531.7)

(512.4)

Money Supply (M1) 1) Currency in active circulation 2) Demand deposits Central Bank Domestic Banks Factors affecting money (M1)

3) External reserves 4) Other external liabilities (net) 5) Quasi money 6) Other items (net)

(395.9)

4,728.8

4,676.0

4,394.3

4,397.0

4,360.2

4,365.8

4,302.6

4,355.8

4,379.2

(2,596.7)

(2,686.5)

(2,766.8)

(2,753.9)

(2,820.8)

(2,835.2)

(2,872.4)

(2,886.6)

(2,889.6)

Source: The Central Bank of The Bahamas

24

TABLE 7 CONSUMER INSTALMENT CREDIT*

End of Period

* Includes both demand and add-on loans

25

TABLE 8 SELECTED AVERAGE INTEREST RATES (%) Period DOMESTIC BANKS Deposit rates Savings deposits Fixed deposits Up to 3 months Up to 6 months Up to 12 months Over 12 months Weighted average rate Lending rates Residential mortgages Commercial mortgages Consumer loans Overdrafts Weighted average rate Other rates Prime rate Treasury bill (90 days) Treasury bill re-discount rate Bank rate (discount rate)

2012

2013

2014

2015 Qtr. I

Qtr. II

2016 Qtr. III

Qtr. IV

Qtr. I

Qtr. II

1.53

0.97

0.89

0.96

0.82

0.83

0.72

0.80

0.87

1.60 1.95 2.54 2.65 2.02

1.37 1.35 2.15 2.20 1.68

1.16 1.22 1.76 1.64 1.42

1.07 1.02 1.90 1.55 1.46

1.20 1.03 1.71 1.42 1.40

1.17 1.09 1.69 1.72 1.49

1.10 1.20 1.53 1.57 1.27

1.05 1.05 1.87 1.64 1.36

0.98 1.03 1.44 1.66 1.25

7.50 8.29 13.43 9.81 10.88

7.27 8.21 13.65 9.32 11.10

7.16 8.02 13.91 9.76 11.81

6.89 7.61 14.05 10.48 11.94

6.45 7.68 14.08 10.20 12.35

6.36 7.40 14.43 10.17 12.55

6.20 9.09 14.49 10.60 12.32

6.32 7.42 13.65 10.78 11.83

6.21 7.00 14.14 11.04 12.54

4.75 0.20 0.70 4.50

4.75 0.30 0.80 4.50

4.75 0.53 1.03 4.50

4.75 0.58 1.08 4.50

4.75 0.69 1.19 4.50

4.75 0.68 1.18 4.50

4.75 0.76 1.26 4.50

4.75 1.03 1.53 4.50

4.75 1.48 1.98 4.50

Source: The Central Bank of The Bahamas

26

TABLE 9 SELECTED CREDIT QUALITY INDICATORS OF DOMESTIC BANKS (%) Period Loan Portfolio Current Loans (as a % of total loans) Arrears (% by loan type) Consumer Mortgage Commercial Public Total Arrears Total B$ Loan Portfolio

2012

2013

2014

2015 Qtr. I

Qtr. II

2016 Qtr. III

Qtr. IV

Qtr. I

Qtr. II

80.3

78.4

79.7

80.9

81.2

81.5

80.9

81.1

82.6

4.4 11.0 4.3 0.1 19.7 100.0

5.0 11.0 5.5 0.1 21.6 100.0

5.2 11.0 4.1 0.0 20.3 100.0

4.8 10.3 4.0 19.1 100.0

4.6 10.4 3.8 18.8 100.0

4.9 10.4 3.2 0.0 18.5 100.0

4.7 10.9 3.5 19.1 100.0

4.5 10.8 3.6 18.9 100.0

4.3 9.6 3.6 17.4 100.0

Loan Portfolio Current Loans (as a % of total loans) Arrears (% by days outstanding) 30 - 60 days 61 - 90 days 90 - 179 days over 180 days Total Arrears Total B$ Loan Portfolio

80.3

78.4

79.7

80.9

81.2

81.5

80.9

81.1

82.6

3.7 2.3 2.5 11.3 19.7 100.0

3.6 2.5 2.1 13.3 21.6 100.0

2.9 2.0 2.0 13.3 20.3 100.0

2.7 1.6 1.6 13.2 19.1 100.0

2.6 1.8 1.7 12.7 18.8 100.0

2.8 1.7 1.6 12.4 18.5 100.0

3.1 1.8 1.6 12.6 19.1 100.0

3.0 1.6 1.7 12.6 18.9 100.0

2.5 1.7 1.6 11.7 17.4 100.0

Non Accrual Loans (% by loan type) Consumer Mortgage Other Private Public Total Non Accrual Loans

20.5 57.0 21.9 0.6 100.0

21.5 50.7 27.2 0.6 100.0

23.6 53.8 22.6 100.0

23.6 54.0 22.4 100.0

22.8 55.7 21.6 100.0

23.3 56.0 20.7 0.0 100.0

22.2 57.4 20.4 100.0

21.7 56.3 22.0 100.0

22.8 54.0 23.2 100.0

5.4 5.5 8.3 -

6.1 5.6 7.9 -

6.5 8.9 11.4 -

7.1 8.9 9.8 -

7.2 9.2 10.0 -

7.2 9.8 9.8 -

7.1 9.9 10.2 -

7.4 10.0 10.6 -

7.3 10.1 11.9 -

5.9 42.7 13.7

6.0 39.0 15.4

7.9 51.2 15.3

7.9 53.2 14.8

8.1 55.9 14.4

8.3 59.3 14.0

8.3 58.5 14.2

8.6 60.0 14.3

8.6 65.1 13.2

Provisions to Loan Portfolio Consumer Mortgage Other Private Public Total Provisions to Total Loans Total Provisions to Non-performing Loans Total Non-performing Loans to Total Loans Source: The Central Bank of The Bahamas Figures may not sum to total due to rounding.

27

TABLE 10 SUMMARY OF BANK LIQUIDITY Period I. Statutory Reserves Required reserves Average Till Cash Average balance with central bank Free cash reserves (period ended)

2012

2013

2014

2015 Mar.

Jun.

Sept.

Dec.

(B$ Millions) 2016 Mar. Jun.

301.9 108.9 515.8 322.8

303.3 117.4 593.3 407.4

311.2 122.7 676.6 488.0

313.6 109.9 688.6 484.8

318.5 110.0 696.2 487.6

319.7 108.7 639.4 428.4

316.9 123.0 598.7 404.9

319.0 115.3 782.8 579.2

324.3 96.9 895.5 668.1

971.1

988.3

1,025.5

1,038.1

1,052.2

1,054.8

1,044.6

1,078.4

1,085.5

1,938.2 563.3 127.9 219.3 957.6 56.9 13.2 -

2,126.1 513.6 138.6 392.4 962.2 56.6 62.7 -

2,182.2 606.7 143.0 454.5 907.0 56.0 15.1 -

2,250.3 617.4 113.0 502.5 923.4 55.9 38.1 -

2,367.9 682.3 110.3 556.3 940.0 55.9 23.1 -

2,389.8 596.2 109.0 699.6 922.4 55.7 6.9 -

2,361.6 587.5 142.9 662.6 895.4 55.6 17.4 -

2,547.7 792.6 114.4 680.0 892.3 55.6 12.8 -

2,603.4 921.8 97.4 627.8 889.6 53.5 13.3 -

967.1

1,137.7

1,156.8

1,212.2

1,315.8

1,334.9

1,316.9

1,469.3

1,518.0

II. Liquid Assets (period) A. Minimum Required Liquid Assets B. Net Eligible Liquid Assets i) Balance with Central Bank ii) Notes and Coins iii) Treasury Bills iv) Government registered stocks v) Specified assets vi) Net Inter-bank dem/call deposits vii) Less: borrowings from central bank C. Surplus/(Deficit) Source: The Central Bank of The Bahamas Figures may not sum to total due to rounding.

28

TABLE 11 GOVERNMENT OPERATIONS AND FINANCING (B$ Millions) Period Total Revenue & Grants Current expenditure Capital expenditure Net lending Overall balance

2013/14p

2014/15p

Budget 2015/16 2016/17

1,450.8 1,596.8 252.4 81.7 (480.0)

1,701.5 1,711.3 280.3 92.0 (382.0)

2,039.8 1,935.7 243.2 (0.1) (139.1)

FINANCING (I+II-III+IV+V)

480.0

382.0

139.1

I. Foreign currency borrowing External Domestic

633.2 442.2 191.0

148.2 148.2 -

II. Bahamian dollar borrowing i)Treasury bills ii)Long-term securities iii)Loans and Advances

340.0 81.0 115.0 144.0

III. Debt repayment Domestic Bahamian dollars Internal foreign currency External IV.Net Sale of Shares & Other Equity V.Cash balance change VI.Other Financing

2014/15p Qtr. II Qtr. III

Qtr. I 316.5 388.0 60.3 20.1 (151.9)

369.5 424.0 33.5 20.3 (108.3)

97.6

151.9

108.3

103.6 103.6 -

85.1 85.1 -

0.4 0.4 -

580.0 30.0 275.0 275.0

182.4 -

299.5 -

505.7 491.8 366.8 125.0 13.9

221.4 206.0 140.0 66.0 15.4

145.7 125.0 125.0 20.7

-

-

(50.8)

(76.8)

63.2

(47.9)

488.5 413.0 46.6 20.3 8.6

Qtr. I

Qtr. IV*

527.1 486.3 139.8 31.4 (130.4)

437.6 460.9 39.7 (0.0) (62.9)

458.6 488.3 49.7 2.4 (81.7)

488.3 521.1 49.0 0.8 (82.6)

356.2 319.8 26.3 (3.1) 13.3

(8.6)

130.4

62.9

81.7

82.6

(13.3)

118.6 118.6 -

10.7 10.7 -

18.5 18.5 -

28.1 14.9 13.3

95.4 72.1 23.4

126.3 112.9 13.4

4.6 4.6 -

239.0 30.0 209.0

216.0 150.0 66.0

70.0 70.0 -

55.0 55.0 -

222.8 212.8 10.0 -

127.1 47.3 77.3 2.5

38.4 28.3 10.1

10.8 0.8 10.0

287.1 258.9 258.9 28.2

51.5 50.0 50.0 1.5

71.5 66.0 66.0 5.5

82.2 80.0 80.0 2.2

16.2 10.0 10.0 6.2

104.2 97.9 97.9 6.3

76.8 70.0 70.0 6.8

34.4 26.2 26.2 8.2

94.9 90.1 40.1 50.0 4.8

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

18.5

(74.8)

9.3

(29.9)

2.0

(22.0)

(49.4)

8.4

-

(54.4)

(80.1)

(16.4)

103.0

(85.9)

(42.0)

1.7

57.8

(1.3)

2,168.8 2,024.4 242.1 (0.1) (97.6)

Qtr. IV

2015/16p Qtr. II Qtr. III

Source: Treasury Monthly Printouts. Data compiled according to the International Monetary Fund's Government Finance Statistics format. *Quarter IV includes April & May only

29

TABLE 12 NATIONAL DEBT Period

2013

2014

2015

TOTAL EXTERNAL DEBT By Instrument Government Securities Loans By Holder Commercial Banks Offshore Financial Institutions Multilateral Institutions Bilateral Institutions Private Capital Markets Other Financial Institutions

1,190,109

1,572,394

600,000 590,109

2015

(B$ '000s) 2016 Mar. Jun.

Mar.

Jun.

Sept.

Dec.

1,634,853

1,580,921

1,593,203

1,601,847

1,634,853

1,739,582

1,741,452

900,000 672,394

900,000 734,853

900,000 680,921

900,000 693,203

900,000 701,847

900,000 734,853

900,000 839,582

900,000 841,452

239,927 67,103 600,000 283,079

237,002 70,731 900,000 364,661

221,339 68,371 900,000 445,143

234,323 70,561 900,000 376,037

228,162 70,561 900,000 394,480

227,875 70,395 900,000 403,577

221,339 68,371 900,000 445,143

220,252 67,511 900,000 551,820

214,889 67,511 900,000 559,052

TOTAL INTERNAL DEBT By Instrument Foreign Currency Government Securities Loans Bahamian Dollars Advances Treasury Bills Government Securities Loans By Holder Foreign Currency Commercial Banks Other Local Financial Institutions Bahamian Dollars The Central Bank Commercial Banks Other Local Financial Iinstitutions Public Corporations Other

3,795,658

4,009,658

4,263,352

3,999,658

4,044,658

4,182,841

4,263,352

4,288,905

4,211,490

125,000 125,000 3,670,658 134,657 579,282 2,956,473 246

4,009,658 134,657 579,282 3,025,473 270,246

36,615 36,615 4,226,737 134,657 816,513 3,072,783 202,784

3,999,658 134,657 579,282 3,040,473 245,246

4,044,658 134,657 579,282 3,085,473 245,246

13,250 13,250 4,169,591 134,657 769,215 3,065,473 200,246

36,615 36,615 4,226,737 134,657 816,513 3,072,783 202,784

50,000 50,000 4,238,905 134,657 843,606 3,057,783 202,859

4,211,490 134,657 856,336 3,047,783 172,714

125,000 125,000 3,670,658 542,419 1,345,740 9,357 684,911 1,088,231

4,009,658 567,399 1,585,768 10,217 665,267 1,181,007

36,615 36,615 4,226,737 519,533 1,708,532 26,395 650,289 1,321,988

3,999,658 481,154 1,619,069 12,174 661,167 1,226,094

4,044,658 424,900 1,680,410 21,084 655,034 1,263,230

13,250 13,250 4,169,591 452,711 1,770,711 11,402 650,269 1,284,498

36,615 36,615 4,226,737 519,533 1,708,532 26,395 650,289 1,321,988

50,000 50,000 4,238,905 507,299 1,727,174 9,857 637,789 1,356,786

4,211,490 565,484 1,641,247 9,857 632,020 1,362,882

TOTAL FOREIGN CURRENCY DEBT TOTAL DIRECT CHARGE TOTAL CONTINGENT LIABILITIES TOTAL NATIONAL DEBT

1,315,109 4,985,767 604,385 5,590,152

1,572,394 5,582,052 702,454 6,284,506

1,671,468 5,898,205 755,183 6,653,388

1,580,921 5,580,579 719,962 6,300,541

1,593,203 5,637,861 726,890 6,364,751

1,615,097 5,784,688 729,334 6,514,022

1,671,468 5,898,205 755,183 6,653,388

1,789,582 6,028,487 751,287 6,779,774

1,741,452 5,952,942 742,497 6,695,439

Source: Treasury Accounts & Treasury Statistical Summary Printouts Public Corporation Reports Creditor Statements, Central Bank of The Bahamas

30

TABLE 13 PUBLIC SECTOR FOREIGN CURRENCY DEBT OPERATIONS (B$ '000s) Period

2013

2014

2015

1,894,039 1,042,746 851,293

2,139,513 1,315,109 824,404

Plus: New Drawings Government Public corporations

309,225 282,868 26,357

Less: Amortization Government Public corporations

Outstanding Debt at Beginning of Period Government Public Corporations

Other Changes in Debt Stock Government Public corporations Outstanding Debt at End of Period Government Public corporations

2015

2016

Mar.

Jun.

Sept.

Dec.

Mar.

Jun.

2,452,857 1,572,394 880,463

2,452,857 1,572,394 880,463

2,477,876 1,580,921 896,955

2,491,904 1,593,203 898,701

2,517,600 1,615,097 902,503

2,567,517 1,671,468 896,049

2,677,031 1,789,582 887,449

787,151 491,378 295,773

198,339 152,729 45,610

31,788 10,698 21,090

28,892 18,463 10,429

36,489 28,149 8,340

101,170 95,419 5,751

129,232 126,316 2,916

110,721 9,035 101,686

66,970 13,724 53,246

444,774 205,060 239,714

51,472 21,448 30,024

6,769 2,171 4,598

14,864 6,181 8,683

10,793 6,255 4,538

19,046 6,841 12,205

19,718 8,202 11,516

77,226 57,165 20,061

3,219 3,219 -

(29,033) (29,033) -

(32,207) (32,207) -

-

-

-

-

-

(32,207) (32,207) -

2,139,513 1,315,109 824,404

2,452,857 1,572,394 880,463

2,567,517 1,671,468 896,049

2,477,876 1,580,921 896,955

2,491,904 1,593,203 898,701

2,517,600 1,615,097 902,503

2,567,517 1,671,468 896,049

2,677,031 1,789,582 887,449

2,710,526 1,741,452 969,074

Interest Charges Government Public corporations

109,931 57,758 52,173

125,009 75,372 49,637

133,152 79,998 53,154

29,767 17,835 11,932

35,879 21,495 14,384

26,661 14,513 12,148

40,845 26,155 14,690

27,926 15,038 12,888

43,182 28,354 14,828

Debt Service Government Public corporations

176,901 71,482 105,419

569,783 280,432 289,351

184,624 101,446 83,178

36,536 20,006 16,530

50,743 27,676 23,067

37,454 20,768 16,686

59,891 32,996 26,895

47,644 23,240 24,404

120,408 85,519 34,889

Debt Service ratio

4.9

16.0

5.6

4.2

5.3

5.0

8.5

5.6

13.7

Government debt Service/ Government revenue (%)

5.3

19.0

5.3

4.1

5.3

4.7

7.2

4.8

-

451.9 273.2 67.1 747.3 600.0

276.8 288.7 70.7 916.6 900.0

319.1 281.8 68.4 998.2 900.0

292.3 285.6 70.6 929.4 900.0

288.9 286.5 70.6 945.9 900.0

304.9 286.0 70.4 956.3 900.0

319.1 281.8 68.4 998.2 900.0

326.7 280.5 67.5 1,102.3 900.0

357.0 278.9 67.5 1,107.1 900.0

MEMORANDUM Holder distribution (B$ Mil): Commercial banks Offshore Financial Institutions Multilateral Institutions Bilateral Institutions Other Private Capital Markets

Source: Treasury Accounts, Treasury Statistical Printouts and Quarterly Reports from Public Corporations, Central Bank of The Bahamas.

31

TABLE 14 BALANCE OF PAYMENTS SUMMARY* (B$ Millions) 2013p

2014p

2015p

2014 Qtr.IVp

Qtr.Ip

2015 Qtr.IIp Qtr.IIIp

Qtr.IVp

2016 Qtr.Ip Qtr.IIp

A. Current Account Balance (I+II+III+IV)

(1,493.9)

(1,959.5)

(2,000.3)

(664.6)

(445.9)

(298.9)

(245.1)

(431.5)

(263.5)

(157.7)

I. Merchandise (Net) Exports Imports II. Services (Net) Transportation Travel Insurance Services Offshore Companies Local Expenses Other Government Other Services III. Income (Net) 1. Compensation of Employees 2. Investment Income IV. Current Transfers (Net) 1. General Government 2. Private Sector

(2,211.0)

(2,510.3)

(3,793.0)

(697.0)

(666.8)

(668.5)

(536.7)

(560.0)

(504.4)

(428.3)

B. Capital and Financial Account (I+II)

954.9

833.9

904.6

197.6

125.9

156.1

117.7

120.9

95.8

144.2

3,165.9

3,344.2

4,697.7

894.7

792.7

824.6

654.4

680.9

600.2

572.5

1,043.0

988.9

2,628.1

154.4

368.6

494.8

348.0

248.1

355.5

406.5

(73.9)

(62.1)

(70.3)

(59.7)

(65.5)

(60.7)

(69.0)

447.1

613.4

649.1

454.7

423.3

620.0

639.7 (44.7)

(244.8) 2,022.2

(288.0) 2,096.7

(456.3) 4,039.9

(158.0)

(143.8)

(263.7)

(27.1)

(30.7)

(37.6)

(39.7)

(33.8)

(32.4)

180.3

200.9

309.5

45.3

22.5

57.0

46.8

39.4

35.2

54.3

27.6

33.1

(131.0)

7.1

8.6

5.9

9.3

6.1

(75.6)

(42.6)

(784.3)

(910.0)

(870.4)

(244.1)

(183.1)

(109.1)

(63.4)

(121.5)

(131.0)

(131.1)

(329.1)

(438.1)

(708.1)

(134.8)

(142.2)

(115.4)

(53.8)

(91.2)

(70.0)

(117.7)

(35.8)

(64.4)

(94.1)

(15.0)

(20.5)

(11.9)

(15.2)

(18.9)

(11.1)

(8.2)

(293.3)

(373.8)

(614.0)

(119.8)

(121.7)

(103.5)

(38.6)

(72.3)

(58.9)

(109.5) (18.1)

3.2

0.0

(127.2)

12.8

(5.4)

(9.9)

(2.7)

(28.5)

(44.6)

122.5

118.3

231.5

29.9

41.1

33.2

29.0

26.7

29.4

36.0

(119.3)

(118.3)

(358.7)

(17.1)

(46.5)

(43.1)

(31.6)

(55.2)

(74.0)

(54.1)

429.2

453.3

113.7

56.6

81.4

96.8

(21.7)

51.2

996.0

1,509.9

(excl. Reserves)

I. Capital Account (Net Transfers) II. Financial Account (Net) 1. Direct Investment 2. Portfolio Investment 3. Other Investments Central Gov't Long Term Capital Other Public Sector Capital Banks Other

(9.6)

(8.9)

(29.1)

(0.8)

(7.4)

(1.6)

(3.5)

(6.4)

(4.4)

(2.9)

1,005.6 382.3 (34.0)

1,518.8 251.3 (26.9)

458.2 114.7 (27.0)

454.1 (0.7) (5.2)

121.0 9.7 (4.2)

58.2 43.6 (3.4)

84.8 9.9 (3.1)

103.2 13.0 (1.8)

(17.3) (16.3) (4.2)

54.1 27.4 (5.2)

657.4

1,294.4

370.6

460.0

115.5

18.0

78.1

92.0

3.2

31.9

139.7

411.3

202.0

113.1

8.5

12.3

8.6

65.2

103.6

4.1

93.8

195.4

83.1

(0.2)

5.7

(0.3)

1.3

(2.6)

95.7 (116.5)

1.9

62.2

(161.9)

(222.8)

(124.3)

(33.4)

2.4

54.8

5.9

(19.3)

451.4 0.0

951.2 0.0

195.9 0.0

388.1

140.6

(2.4)

15.0

19.6

(78.5)

50.8

C. Net Errors and Omissions

429.4

495.7

1,097.3

196.4

373.6

366.4

37.4

319.9

468.1

163.6

D. Overall Balance (A+B+C) E. Financing (Net) Change in SDR holdings Change in Reserve Position with the IMF Change in Ext. Foreign Assets ( ) = Increase

(68.5) 0.0

46.0 0.0

321.6 0.0

(14.9)

41.4

124.0

(126.4)

(14.8)

183.0

57.2

(321.6)

(57.2)

68.5

(46.0)

14.9

(41.4)

(124.0)

126.4

14.8

(183.0)

(30.1)

(19.9)

3.3

1.8

3.8

(1.4)

0.2

1.0

(1.2)

(0.0)

0.6

(17.7)

0.2

0.4

(0.2)

0.0

0.1

(18.5)

0.2

98.7

(26.7)

(307.2)

12.8

(45.6)

(122.4)

126.2

13.7

(163.3)

(57.9)

Source: The Central Bank of the Bahamas * Figures may not sum to total due to rounding

32

0.6

TABLE 15 EXTERNAL TRADE (B$ '000s) Period

2013

2014

2015

I. OIL TRADE i) Exports ii) Imports

237,808 726,901

165,337 868,460

70,350 535,306

2014 Qtr. III

Qtr. II

2015 Qtr. IV

Qtr. I

Qtr. II

Qtr. III

Qtr. IV

48,123 205,244

32,626 263,155

34,070 201,724

22,530 67,629

27,073 106,870

12,511 243,845

8,236 116,962

74,368 53,070 127,438 692,436 639,366 (564,999)

90,826 48,970 139,796 756,416 707,446 (616,619)

97,863 36,224 134,087 818,691 782,467 (684,604)

57,503 27,116 84,619 674,050 646,934 (589,431)

44,702 68,078 112,780 694,289 626,211 (581,509)

58,931 24,518 83,449 575,844 551,326 (492,395)

68,938 28,904 97,842 682,553 653,649 (584,711)

II. OTHER MERCHANDISE Domestic Exports Crawfish Fish Conch & other Crustacea Other cordials &Similar Materials/Sponge Fruits & Vegs. Aragonite Other Natural Sands Rum/Beverages/Spirits & Vinegar Crude Salt Polystrene Products Other i) Total Domestic Exports ii) Re-Exports iii) Total Exports (i+ii) iv) Imports v) Retained Imports (iv-ii) vi) Trade Balance (i-v)

19,902 3,079 157 805 70 9,084 85,288 33,436 364,424 209,479 573,902 2,639,003 2,429,524 (2,065,100)

353,216 170,627 523,843 2,921,525 2,750,898 (2,397,682)

230,074 148,616 378,690 2,626,736 2,478,120 (2,248,046)

Source: Department of Statistics Quarterly Statistical Summaries

33

TABLE 16 SELECTED TOURISM STATISTICS Period

Visitor Arrivals

2013

2014

2014

2015

2015

2016

Qtr. III

Qtr. IV

Qtr. I

Qtr. II

Qtr. III

Qtr. IV

Qtr. I

Qtr. II

6,150,784

6,320,188

6,114,337

1,385,359

1,619,786

1,772,202

1,506,445

1,334,600

1,501,090

1,764,730

1,571,231

Air

1,280,736

1,343,093

1,391,782

318,083

300,005

375,962

385,016

330,722

300,082

384,324

397,446

Sea

4,870,048

4,977,095

4,722,555

1,067,276

1,319,781

1,396,240

1,121,429

1,003,878

1,201,008

1,380,406

1,173,785

Stopover

1,363,496

1,305,402

1,471,808

343,485

301,826

391,033

418,156

365,014

297,605

-

-

Cruise

4,709,236

4,804,701

4,513,456

1,014,353

1,293,971

1,358,623

1,051,437

939,688

1,163,708

1,338,961

1,112,983

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

2,285

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

1,884

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

398

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

3

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Number of Hotel Nights

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Average Length of Stay

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

New Providence

58.1

60.6

-

39.3

58.1

-

-

-

-

-

-

Grand Bahama

42.1

48.1

-

39.3

40.8

-

-

-

-

-

-

Other Family Islands

39.8

42.8

-

26.2

41.6

-

-

-

-

-

-

226.7

230.6

-

143.1

292.9

-

-

-

-

-

-

82.9

100.3

-

143.1

60.2

-

-

-

-

-

-

161.5

202.3

-

184.1

225.3

-

-

-

-

-

-

Visitor Type

Day/Transit

Tourist Expenditure(B$ 000's) Stopover Cruise Day

Average Hotel Occupancy Rates (%)

Average Nightly Room Rates ($) New Providence Grand Bahama Other Family Islands

Source: The Ministry of Tourism: Average Hotel Occupancy and Nightly Room Rates were amended for Quarter II, 2014

34