HAB forecasting
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Shelly Tomlinson NOAA/NOS Center for Coastal Monitoring and Assessment
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What are Forecasts? •
Nowcast: There is a HAB, where is it today? This is usually where it was yesterday. A location (detection/extent) and a transport problem
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Forecast: There is a HAB, where will it be in the next few days? What will be the likely impact? A location (detection/extent) and a transport modeling problem *ONLY AS GOOD AS BLOOM DELINEATION ESTIMATES
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Prediction:
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What kind of HAB When and where will HAB initiate or dissipate? Will the HAB still be here next month? How severe? No HAB today, but HAB next week/month? These are ecological modeling problems
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HABIOS Workshop (St. Petersburg, FL)
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What is operational? • Scheduled During active bloom, comprehensive analysis and graphics e-mailed at least twice a week (subscription only) Public information updated twice-weekly Web-based Current conditions and expected conditions for next 1-3 days Bulletins available to the public after minimum 1 week delay
• Reliable Operational on a 5-day week (analysts available every day). Analysts available at
[email protected] and by cell phone to bulletin subscribers
• Institutional
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NOAA Operational Office Standard operational procedures User training Annual assessment
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HABIOS Workshop (St. Petersburg, FL)
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NOAA HAB Forecast System Operational since 2004
Observations
Model output
(satellite imagery, buoys, field samples, respiratory irritation)
(heuristic, empirical)
Synthesis and Analysis
A harmful algal bloom has been identified in patches from southern Lee to central Collier County. Patchy very low impacts are possible from southern Lee County to central Collier County today through Thursday. No other impacts are expected.
Conditions Report (public)
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HAB Bulletin (managers) D
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HAB-Operational Forecast System a Success http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/hab/
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HAB-OFS has been in place for over 4 years
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NOAA has issued nearly 400 bulletins in that time in response to HABs that have impacted over 1000 km of coast
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90% weekly utilization* by over 190 resource managers representing more than 50 organizations
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Integration with Public Health (e.g., Collier County Pollution Control and Prevention, Florida Aquatic Toxins Hotline, Florida DOH, CDC)
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*Usage based on reference in weekly reports (state or county) Samples in blooms D
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HABIOS Workshop (St. Petersburg, FL)
21 April 2009
Rule-based models for analysis (Scientific SOP) •
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Established rules for development of a bloom Timing of blooms (seasonality) Location of blooms (identify hot spots, areas where blooms do not occur) Once established at the coast, a series of rules for forecasts Transport: where is bloom going Extent: will bloom expand its region of impact Intensification: will bloom get bigger (higher cell counts/larger area) Impact: what conditions will beaches experience, e.g., fish kills, respiratory irritation Needed improvements: Conditions for bloom initiation and demise Sea breeze model for respiratory impacts
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Evaluation of forecasts important part of operational system From Oct 2004-Apr 2006 Accuracy was high because of low resolution forecasts Efforts underway to improve resolution
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Stumpf et al., 2009 Journal of Marine Systems
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HABIOS Workshop (St. Petersburg, FL)
21 April 2009
Public Advisory – new with operational system
Current conditions and forecast of beach impacts over the next few days
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Precision/Accuracy only as good as ability to identify bloom field
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HABIOS Workshop (St. Petersburg, FL)
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FL Beach Impact (Lifeguard)
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HABIOS Workshop (St. Petersburg, FL)
21 April 2009
Annual Skill Assessment • Provides better understanding of respiratory irritation forecasts County-wide Forecast of moderate/high impact Correct County- 73% wide (at least one beach) Correct against 21% individual reports from 6 beaches
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Stumpf et al., 2008, J.Marine Systems
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Importance of Resolution on Forecast Accuracy Resolution at the Coast (Florida) Consistent with the initial HAB “field”
30 km per day
Forecast Resolution
30-60 km per day
Accuracy at 30-60 km
73% correct
Accuracy at 10 km
21% correct
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Resolution is only as good as the resolution of the initialization data. (1 km satellite pixels do not produce 1 km/day resolution in the HAB Field) D
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HABIOS Workshop (St. Petersburg, FL)
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Efforts to fill data gaps • Take advantage of public health
Poison control hotline Beach reports from lifeguards FWRI fish kill database (for respiratory irritation reports) Turtle Patrol reports HABISS
• Addition of brevebuster on NOAA NWLON Naples Pier, FL • Brevebusters to be added to NOAA CMAN (3 in Veracruz; Venice, FL). • Purchase of two gliders under research $$
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However, funds unavailable to run operationally
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Assimilation strategy for analysis in Google Maps
Example analyst page for Florida cell counts lifeguard obs, fixed sensors
glider (not operational)
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satellite D
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Data Type
Source
Format
Cell Counts (FL, AL, MS)
Direct, also FWRI database
Manual, Excel, PDF (parsed), DBF
Cell Counts (TX)
TexHAB (integrated by TPWD)
Manual, Excel
Alerts/Warnings of Problems
Direct
Email lists and direct email
Respiratory Impact Data (Lifeguard program)
Mote Marine Lab
CSV, ftp/email (automated process)
AUV/Moored brevebuster detection
Mote Marine
ftp of csv (automated process)
Poison Hotline
U.Miami
Automated ftp
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Data sources critical to identifying a HAB field: needs for standardized formats/data delivery
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Texas: Demonstration since 2006
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HABIOS Workshop (St. Petersburg, FL)
21 April 2009
Expanded monitoring in TX
Volunteer Phytoplankton Monitoring Network • Established by NOAA’s Marine Biotoxins Program, 2001 in SC • Unites volunteers and NOAA scientists • Sampling takes place on a weekly or bimonthly basis • Equipment provided • Results enable researchers to identify problem areas
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•Expanded to TX in 2007 D
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Texas: A coordinated success story
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Texas, TexHAB averted a disaster: March 2008: Dinophysis in Corpus Christi Bay, never reported before as a HAB in the GOM First spotted by TAMU experimental video sensor Linkage across Texas community through TexHAB Support by various groups: sampling by PMN, modeling support by NOAA and TGLO/TAMU. Week of major oyster festival. Oyster recall; fresh oysters for festival; no cases of DSP. D
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Other U.S. Gulf States
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• Ad hoc event response when unusual event occurs • No system for LA/MS/AL • If event originates in FL, the operational system will continue to support
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HABIOS Workshop (St. Petersburg, FL)
21 April 2009
Need for US/Mexico communication Dead fish wash up on Nassau beaches (Florida Times Union, 25/9/2007) Thousands of dead fish have washed up on Nassau County beaches, and beachgoers have reported scratchy throats, irritated eyes and coughs while exposed to the air and water.
SeaWiFS Chl (13/9/2007)
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Naval Research Laboratory HYCOM Model Output (15/9/2007) D
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HABIOS Workshop (St. Petersburg, FL)
21 April 2009
Forecast needs from HABIOS • Priority: Location/Validation data at appropriate (14 km/d) resolution
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HAB field currently based on satellite/cell counts (1km satellite, obscured by clouds, 50 cells counts/week for 200 km of coastline) Respiratory irritation data (increased errors to
