3Q 2011 Earnings New brand positioning & improved efficiency 4 November 2011
Nov 4, 2011 | 1
Disclaimer This presentation does not constitute or form any part of an offer, invitation or inducement to sell or subscribe, or any solicitation of an offer to purchase or subscribe for any securities. This presentation does not purport to contain all information that a prospective investor might require, and neither this presentation nor any part of it nor the fact of its distribution shall form the basis of, or be relied on in connection with, any contract for the purchase or subscription of any securities. The forecasts and forward-looking statements contained in this presentation are necessarily based upon a number of assumptions and estimates that, while considered reasonable by us, are inherently subject to significant business, operational, economic and competitive uncertainties and contingencies, many of which are beyond our control, and upon assumptions with respect to future business decisions that are subject to change. Actual results may differ materially from those projected. Certain items of numerical information and other amounts and percentages set forth in this presentation may not add up to the correct total due to rounding.
Nov 4, 2011 | 2
Agenda
Nov 4, 2011 | 3
1
Overview
2
Macroeconomic Situation
3
Financial Performance
4
Summary
5
Appendix
Overview
Nov 4, 2011 | 4
Overview Performance
• Successful navigation through volatile economy ... 3.2% higher NII q/q and total net revenue plateaued q/q
Profitability
• NI of PLN 54 MM in Q3 … with PLN 158 MM YTD (vs. PLN 188 MM net loss in previous year)… interest margin of 3.6% maintained
Loans
• Robust new sales … PLN 503 MM of corporate loans … PLN 451 MM of new cash loans
Costs
• Base costs down on prior quarter and year
Losses
• Non-mortgage losses flat; recent FX volatility impacted mortgage losses and drove uptick in total losses by PLN 11 MM q/q … properly secured loan book … NPL down to 10.4% from 10.7% in Q2
Safety & Soundness
• CAR of 13.6% … adequate level of capital … ceased FX mortgage lending … no sovereign exposure outside Poland
Nov 4, 2011 | 5
Total net revenue = NII + Net F&C + Net trading income
Strategic execution Loans PLN B
31,126
29,984
Corporate
P-loans (PLN MM)
Go forward focus (Retail + Corporate + SME)
Originations
Receivables
10 798
1%
155
136
160
503 451 Jul'11 FX mtg ceased
Mortgages
17 483
7%
18 753
SF + Auto
1 702
12%
1 491
2Q'11
3Q'11
Aug'11 Sep'11
383 +31%
315 +43%
2Q'11
3Q'11
2Q'11
No increase in P-loans 30+ delinquencies y/y
Innovations • New products: current account Konto Maksymalne and cards: Visa payWave and MasterCard® Debit Gold & Visa Prepaid Launch; factoring services at pre-launch stage • Pilot of videoexpert extended for investment products • Distribution channels: 5 new branches in IDEO format, 8 branches modernized, 134 ATMs replaced • New contact management systems
Investing in growth platforms Nov 4, 2011 | 6
(PLN MM)
10 882
3Q'11
New brand positioning … Aided brand awareness
„We want to be recognized as #1 on trust & Fair Play”
Customers Stakeholders
Employees
80% 64%
Nov'09
Jul'11
TARGET
Trust Index
Communities
85 68
Reasons To Believe
Nov'09
Jul'11
TARGET
• Customers: One page summary added to loan contracts highlighting its key elements (payment schedules, benefits, cancellation) • Employees: HealthAhead initiative promoting healthy life style for
Brand consideration „If you were to choose a bank now, which banks would you consider?”
Top 5 bank
employees and their families • Stakeholders: Webcasting conferences for investors, analysts and media
BPH’s rank among banks
• Communities: GE Volunteers 700 employees engaged with their families in 40 cities this year
8th 12th Nov’09
Nov 4, 2011 | 7
Jul’11
TARGET
New brand positioning... Partnering with media: TVN and Onet.pl ACTION GOAL -> to be recognized as #1 on trust & Fair Play
Action results (Sep 30 – Oct 30) ~900 stories fulfilling regulations submitted (total submissions ~2.6 K) 12 programming entries in TVN (Dzień Dobry TVN, Uwaga, Co za Tydzień, O tym się mówi) Over 152 K unique users on www.zwyklybohater.pl 1,500 Facebook fans Over 400 bank spots / over 500 promo trailers
Nov 4, 2011 | 8
Macroeconomic Situation
Nov 4, 2011 | 9
Solid GDP in 3Q, but external-driven slowdown looms Worsening outlook for upcoming quarters
Still robust GDP figure expected in 3Q11 Unemployment
GDP 8 6 3,2
4 2
0,5
3,0
3,5
4,2
4,5
4,4
4,3
4,1
4,0 3,2
1,7
1,0
0 Q1-09
Q3-09
Q1-10
GDP (%, y/y), left axis
Q3-10
Q1-11
Q3-11F 2011F2012F 2012F
Unemployment (%, eop), right axis
14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0
Real GDP growth (%, y/y) - IMF October forecasts
3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0
2.7 1.7
1.4
1.6 1.1
1.3
1.6
2.0 1.8
1.1
1.7 1.4 0.6
EU27
Euro area Germany 2011 F
UK
Czech Rep.
France
0.3
Italy
2012 F
• Only moderate consumption slowdown in 3Q11 as retail sales growth still double-digit in Sep
• Consumption to be affected by worsening labor market situation
• Unemployment at relatively high level, despite favorable seasonal factors
• Companies reluctant to invest as economic uncertainty remains high
• Investments dynamics expected to increase again fuelled by public investments
• 2012 budget revenues might be at risk…fiscal consolidation might be a drag on growth
• Elevated inflation supported by weak zloty
• Inflation concerns might prevent interest rate cuts
Less supportive external environment and tight fiscal policy will take its toll on Polish economy Nov 4, 2011 | 10
Financial turmoil might impact economy, but risks to banking sector contained Credit portfolio quality of banks in 3Q
Investors’ confidence towards selected countries CDS 5Y USD (bp, November 2nd, 2011)
1039 730 501 218
224
250
374
NPL housing
NPL
545
378
10
5,0
9
4,0
8
3,0
7
2,0
6
1,0
5 4 Russia
Slovakia
Poland Romania
Spain
Italy
Hungary Ireland Portugal
0,0 03 09 06 09 09 09 12 09 03 10 06 10 09 10 12 10 3 11 NPL loans (%), LA
• Polish CDS rates higher due to sovereign debt concerns in euro zone…still indicate relative investors’ confidence • Polish bond market still solid - 10Y yield currently ~30 bp below Y/E level • Limited sovereign exposure among Polish banks… but parent companies might have broader issues
9 11
NPL housing loans (%), RA
• SNB set minimum exchange rate at 1.20/EUR, helping stabilize PLN vs. CHF • Increased tensions in interbank market and more difficult bank funding led to restrictions in FX mortgage lending... but overall lending conditions have so far remained favourable
Tensions in financial markets pose downside risks for real economy Nov 4, 2011 | 11
6 11
Financial Performance
Nov 4, 2011 | 12
Key financial performance Q3’11
VPQ (%)
YTD
VPY (%)
Net interest income
342
+3.2%
1,007
-1.8%
Net F&C
151
-3.1%
471
-17.5%
Total net revenue*
499
+0.5%
1,499
-9.6%
PLN MM
Net revenue after losses**
403
-2.1%
1,201
+25.6%
Costs
-338
+0.7%
992
-14.5%
Ex-restructuring & one-offs
-338
-2.6%
1,020
-2.7%
Impairment charges
-96
+13.1%
-297
-57.6%
Pre-tax profit
74
-2.2%
215
+200.6%
Net income
54
-3.9%
158
+184.4%
• Profitability maintained … 3Q’11 net income of PLN 54 MM • Net interest income up 3% q/q … F&C down 3% • 3% reduction of base costs … restructuring effects included
Declining total net revenue arrested … working on growth Nov 4, 2011 | 13
*/ Total net revenue = NII + Net F&C + Net trading income **/ Risk Adjusted Net Revenue = Total net revenue + Impairment charges
Retail business development PLN MM
Receivables
Interest income + Net F&C
Interest expenses
stable
down 19%
stable
25,709
3Q'10
25,970
518 417
3Q'11
3Q'10
3Q'11
189
191
3Q'10
3Q'11
Net revenue
Losses
Net revenue after losses
down 31%
improved 57%
down 13%
329 191
226
166
140 60 3Q'10
3Q'11
3Q'10
3Q'11
High quality originations Nov 4, 2011 | 14
3Q'10
3Q'11
Corporate business development PLN MM
Receivables
Interest + F&C income
Interest expenses
improved 37%
down 13%
improved 31%
2,247 1,635
38
33
31 21
3Q'10
3Q'11
3Q'10
3Q'11
3Q'10
3Q'11
Net revenue
Losses
Net revenue after losses
up 100%
stable
up 100%+
12 6
3Q'10
10 4
3Q'11
3Q'10
2
3
3Q'11
3Q'10
Y/Y lending growth driving overall improvement Nov 4, 2011 | 15
3Q'11
SME business development PLN MM
Receivables
Interest + F&C income
Interest expenses
down 6%
up 20%
up 16%
3,105
2,910
79 66
3Q'10
3Q'11
3Q'10
3Q'11
29
34
3Q'10
3Q'11
Net revenue
Losses
Net revenue after losses
up 25%
improved 26%
up 100%+
36
45
46 34
11 -9
3Q'10
3Q'11
3Q'10
3Q'11
Positive early signs of turnaround Nov 4, 2011 | 16
vv 3Q'10
vv 3Q'11
Deposits PLN MM
8 930
Retail
Commercial
down 4% y/y
down 8% y/y
9 168 8 549
5 509
5 496
5 074
3Q'10
2Q'11
3Q'10
3Q'11
2Q'11
3Q’10
2Q’11
3Q’11
Cost of deposits (%)
3.13
3.27
3.22
Average 3M WIBOR
3.82
4.43
4.72
3Q'11
Managing deposit base to lending book … surplus liquidity of PLN 2B Nov 4, 2011 | 17
Cost of business PLN MM
Base costs
CIR (%)
C/ RANR* (%)
down 1%
up 6 pp.
improved 10 pp.
342
338
94
3Q'10
3Q'11
62
68
3Q'10
3Q'11
3Q'10
84
3Q'11
Better base costs in spite of increased marketing spending Nov 4, 2011 | 18
*/ Risk Adjusted Net Revenue
Improved asset quality Impairment charges & cost of risk* 300
3,5%
NPL ratio 4,00%
3,4%
10,2
10,6
10,9
10,7
10,4
3,1
3,2
3,2
3,2
3,2
28,9
27,5
27,2
26,4
26,8
27,7
2Q'10
3Q'10
4Q'10
1Q'11
2Q'11
3Q'11
3,50%
250
2,7%
200 1,7%
150
1,7%
264
249
189 121
50
2,50%
9,4
2,00% 1,3%
1,2%
100
3,00%
3,0
1,50% 1,00%
116
85
96
2Q'11
3Q'11
0
0,50% 0,00%
1Q'10
2Q'10
3Q'10
4Q'10
Impairment charges
1Q'11
Cost of risk
Performing loans ** (PLN B)
30+ delinquency of CHF mortgages (%)
30+ delinquency 3 MOB of P-loans (%) 3,0 Crisis peak level
1,5
1Q'10
0,3
0,4
2Q'11
3Q'11
2Q'11
Robust portfolio quality Nov 4, 2011 | 19
*/ Cost of risk to avg. loan volumes; **/ Total loans and guarantees
Impaired loans ** (PLN B)
1,7
1,8
1,7
Jul'11
Aug'11
Sep'11
NPL
Capital ratios well above requirements Capital ratios (%) 12,7
12,1
10,5
12,9
13,2
13,6
13,6
13,6
10,6
11,0
11,2
11,3
11,3
• CAR at 13.6% vs. 8% regulatory minimum • No capital action necessary to meet proposed Basel 3 requirements
9,2
• Established back-up liquidity lines with parent 2009
Jun'10
Sep'10
2010 CAR
Mar'11
Jun'11
Sep'11
• FX assets largely funded by parent
Tier 1
Capital (PLN B) 2009
2Q’10
3Q’10
2010
1Q’11
2Q’11
3Q’11
Tier 1
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.2
3.2
3.2
3.3
Tier 2
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
Total
3.9
3.8
3.8
3.9
3.9
3.9
4.0
Strong capital and liquidity positions Nov 4, 2011 | 20
Summary
Nov 4, 2011 | 21
Summary 1
Robust growth in lending
2
High quality originations
3 Loan portfolio resistant in volatile environment 4 Strengthened services and distribution 5
Full year profitability on plan
Nov 4, 2011 | 22
Appendix
Nov 4, 2011 | 23
Net income development PLN MM
Quarterly trend 84 52 20
47
37
5
2
25
47
45
56
54
5
8
51
46
2Q
3Q
12 -27
-24
-27 -54
One-off items
-143
-170 1Q'09
Nov 4, 2011 | 24
2Q
3Q
4Q
1Q'10
2Q
3Q
4Q
1Q'11
Balance sheet structure improved PLN MM
Assets 3 36.1 B
37. B 37.7
Liabilities & Equity 3 38.6 B
27,808 ex. 2Q’11 FX impact
Net loans*
28 570
27 857
29 269
13,965
15,027
Investments GE lines Intangibles, property & equipment
Deposits 14,009
14,951
14,517
8,120
7,747
7,644
3Q'10
2Q'11
3Q'11
Cash & balance with Central Bank 2 047 1 526 2 558 1 393 3Q'10
Nov 4, 2011 | 25
16,401
2 985 1 446 3 826
2 187 1 439
1 610
1 527
2Q'11
3Q'11
Other
4 141
*/ Net loans and advances to customers
Equity & other
Mortgages Volume (PLN B)
18.7
17.2 ex. 2Q’11 FX impact
+11.5% 17.4
17.3 16.8
16.7
Data as of 30.09.11
Total
PLN
FX
Av. maturity* (years)
22.6
19.7
23.5
Av. Amount** (in PLN '000)
232
66
282
80%
54%
83%
11.5%
-8.9%
14.6%
Av. LTV*** Portfolio growth dynamics (Sep'11/Sep'10)
* / Contractual maturity; **/ Loans granted in 2011; ***/ Current LTV adjusted to mortgage collaterals revaluation
3Q’10
4Q’10
1Q’11
2Q’11
3Q’11
Impaired loans Ratio (%)
2.8
2Q'11
Volume (PLN MM) 30.09.11
V*
V* ex. FX impact
Total
540
+58
+28
PLN
207
+20
+20
FX
333
+38
+8
2.9
3Q'11
* / Q3’11 vs. Q2’11
Nov 4, 2011 | 26