Savills World Research Germany Investment
Market in Minutes Germany commercial investment market
Q4 2016
The market at a glance German investors become net vendors. Demand for commercial property remains high ■ Property in the German commercial investment market changed hands for a total of around €52.7bn in 2016. This represents a decline of 9% compared with the previous year but, nevertheless, the third highest transaction volume on record. ■ For the first time in the current investment cycle, German investors contributed a negative net investment volume of €4.3bn. In the previous years, their acquisition volume was at least hundreds of millions greater than their disposal volume. The fact that prime yields have reached fresh lows may be an indication that some
domestic investors have reached the limits of what they are willing to pay. In fact, conversely, they are using the highly-priced market to make disposals. German special funds increased their acquisition volume by 22% compared with 2015 while, at the same time, their disposal volume more than tripled. In total, 62% of the transaction volume was attributable to German vendors, the highest proportion in the current cycle, i.e. since 2009.
attractive in the prevailing low interest rate environment and, secondly, Germany continues to enjoy a safe haven status among investors. In view of the even more pronounced supply shortage, however, the transaction volume in 2017 is likely to show a moderate decline.
■ Demand for German commercial property is also set to remain very high this year. Firstly, real estate remains
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Market in Minutes | Germany Commercial Investment Market
Q4 2016
Commercial investment market Germany Transaction volume: -9% against last year | Forecast 2017: approx.€50bn TABLE 1
Key investment market figures Transaction volume (€m)
Share of domestic investors
Office prime net initial yield
High Street prime net initial yield
Q1 - Q4 16
against Q1 - Q4 15
against Q4 15 - Q3 16
Q1 16 Q4 16
against Q4 15 - Q3 16
Q4 16
against Q3-16
Q4 16
against Q3-16
Berlin
4,867
-40%
-27%
45%
-23%
3.5%
-20bps
3.0%
+/-0bps
Düsseldorf
2,310
-18%
+9%
40%
-33%
4.0%
-10bps
3.7%
-10bps
Frankfurt
6,341
+12%
+42%
50%
-2%
3.9%
-10bps
4.0%
+/-0bps
Hamburg
4,728
+11%
+26%
56%
-5%
3.6%
-30bps
4.0%
+/-0bps
Cologne
1,797
-18%
-13%
60%
-29%
3.9%
+/-0bps
4.0%
+/-0bps
Munich
5,855
+/-0%
+14%
47%
+14%
3.3%
-20bps
3.2%
-20bps
Stuttgart
1,814
+1%
+12%
25%
-68%
3.5%
-10bps
3.8%
-10bps
52,691
-9%
+4%
53%
-11%
3.7%
-14bps
3.5%
-6bps
Germany
*
Source: Savills / * prime yields = average of Top 7 markets
GRAPH 1
Regional distribution of rolling transaction volume of past 12 months
up to €10m up to €100m up to €1bn more than €1bn
Source: Savills / map source: BKG
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Market in Minutes | Germany Commercial Investment Market
Q4 2016
Commercial investment market Germany Retail transaction volume declined by 38% | Special funds by far most active buyers GRAPH 2
GRAPH 3
Transaction volume
Transaction volume by sector
2012 Q1
2012 Q3
2013 Q1
2013 Q3
2014 Q1
2014 Q3
2015 Q1
2016 Q1
20.09
14.28
9.21
18.05
2015 Q3
9.12
9.64
5.91
0
14.63
€bn
10
2
15.43
15
4 15.04
20
6
8.18
25
8
10.49
30
10
7.49
35
12
12.56
40
14
6.67
45
16
11.12
50
18
7.00
55
20
5.21
60
22
3.99
24
5.07
€bn
transaction volume, quarterly (left axis) transaction volume, past 12 months rolling (right axis)
5 0
2016 2017* Q3
Source: Savills / * forecast
Source: Savills
GRAPH 4
GRAPH 5
Transaction volume by type of investor Purchases, past 12 months Net investments, Ø past 5 years Open-ended special fund Other asset manager Listed property company Private-equity fund Insurance company / Pension fund Sovereign wealth fund Open-ended public fund Housing association Leasing company Public administration Other Bank Corporate Private investor / Family office Closed-ended fund Developer -15
-10
Prime yields**
Sales, past 12 months Net investments, past 12 months
Office
8%
Prime High Street
Logistics
7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -5
0 €bn
5
10
15
2007
Source: Savills
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017*
Source: Savills / * forecast / ** average of Top 7 markets
TABLE 2
The largest transactions in Q4 2016 at a glance* Property / Portfolio
Type of use
Location(s)
Volume
Buyer
Vendor
OfficeFirst Portfolio (97 properties)
Office
across Germany
approx. €3,300m
Blackstone Group Deutschland GmbH
IVG Immobilien AG
Portfolio (42 properties)
Cash & carry market
across Germany
approx. €780m
Aroundtown Property Holdings Plc.
Cerberus Group Beteiligungsberatung GmbH
Taunusturm
Office
Frankfurt am Main
undisclosed
Commerz Real AG
KanAm Grund
Portfolio (17 properties)
Office
across Germany
approx. €630m
WealthCap
Savills Investment Management
Highlight Towers
Office
Munich
undisclosed
Zurich Deutscher Herold Lebensversicherung
LIP, ABG Gruppe
Source: Savills / * only published transactions are shown
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Market in Minutes | Germany Commercial Investment Market
Q4 2016
Commercial portfolio investment market Germany Significant plus of industrial and logistics | Jump in sales with nursing homes TABLE 3
Key investment market figures Transaction volume (€m)
Number of transactions
Ø Deal size (€m)
Q1 - Q4 16
against Q1 - Q4 15
against Q4 15 Q3 16
Q1 16 Q4 16
against Q4 15 Q3 16
Q1 16 Q4 16
against Q4 15 Q3 16
Office
5,944
+12%
+29%
33
-13%
180
+48%
Retail
5,172
-48%
+3%
66
+/-0%
78
+3%
Industrial/Logistics
2,081
+37%
+6%
22
-12%
95
+20%
Other
4,872
+8%
-22%
52
-10%
94
-13%
Total
18,068
-15%
+1%
173
-7%
104
+8%
Source: Savills
GRAPH 6
GRAPH 7
Transaction volume
Transaction volume by sector
8
24
7
21
6
18
5
15
4
12
3
9
2
6
2012 Q1
2012 Q3
2013 Q1
2013 Q3
2014 Q1
2014 Q3
2015 Q1
2015 Q3
2016 Q1
8.46
4.63
2.83
2.14
8.28
3.51
6.47
2.93
5.32
1.91
1.90
5.44
3.99
1.10
2.34
4.01
0.95
0
0.84
1
€bn
27
0.73
9
1.29
€bn
transaction volume, quarterly (left axis) transaction volume, past 12 months rolling (right axis)
3 0
2016 2017* Q3
Source: Savills / * forecast
Source: Savills
GRAPH 8
GRAPH 9
Transaction volume by origin of buyer
Transaction volume by type of investor Purchases, past 12 months Net investments, Ø past 5 years Other asset manager Private-equity fund Listed property company Sovereign wealth fund Open-ended public fund Insurance company / Pension fund Bank Public administration Leasing company Housing association Other Corporate Developer Open-ended special fund Private investor / Family office Closed-ended fund -6
Source: Savills
-4
Sales, past 12 months Net investments, past 12 months
-2
0 €bn
2
4
6
Source: Savills
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Market in Minutes | Germany Commercial Investment Market
Q4 2016
Commercial investment market Berlin Turnover
decline
due
to
less
megadeals
GRAPH 10
|
Strong
start
2017
expected
GRAPH 11
Transaction volume
Transaction volume by sector
2011 Q4
2012 Q2
2012 Q4
2013 Q2
2013 Q4
2014 Q2
2014 Q4
2015 Q2
2015 Q4
2016 Q2
1.50
1.58
1.00
0.79
0.0
3.30
€bn
1.0
1.84
2.0
0.5
1.49
1.0 1.49
3.0
1.89
1.5
1.16
4.0
0.63
2.0
0.62
5.0
1.53
6.0
2.5
0.82
3.0
0.81
7.0
0.64
3.5
3.33
8.0
0.62
4.0
0.53
9.0
0.64
4.5
1.18
€bn
transaction volume, quarterly (left axis) transaction volume, past 12 months rolling (right axis)
0.0
2016 Q4
Source: Savills
Source: Savills
GRAPH 12
GRAPH 13
Transaction volume by origin of buyer
Transaction volume by type of investor Purchases, past 12 months Net investments, Ø past 5 years Other asset manager Insurance company / Pension fund Listed property company Open-ended special fund Corporate Open-ended public fund Leasing company Sovereign wealth fund Housing association Other Public administration Bank Private-equity fund Private investor / Family office Closed-ended fund Developer -1.5
Source: Savills
-1.0
Sales, past 12 months Net investments, past 12 months
-0.5
0.0 €bn
0.5
1.0
1.5
Source: Savills
Berlin market in minutes Rental growth expectations to remain the decisive factor in 2017 •
With a transaction volume of €4.9bn, activity in Berlin’s commercial property investment market was 40% lower than in the record year of 2015. However, rather than indicating weakening demand, this is primarily a consequence of the lack of (high-value) product. Furthermore, a number of large transactions could not be completed in 2016, promising a very buoyant start to 2017.
•
Commercial property in Berlin remains highly sought-after by domestic and foreign investors alike. Foreign purchasers accounted for approximately 55% of the transaction volume in 2016, which was in line with the five-year average.
•
A principal factor in many investment plans is and remains expectations of above-average rental growth. Such scenarios are also likely to result in increasing investor demand in 2017, particularly in B locations, which should lead to further yield compression in some of these locations.
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Market in Minutes | Germany Commercial Investment Market
Q4 2016
Commercial investment market Düsseldorf Transaction
volume
of
€2.3bn
|
GRAPH 14
Declining
size
of
transactions
GRAPH 15
Transaction volume
Transaction volume by sector
2011 Q4
2012 Q2
2012 Q4
2013 Q2
2013 Q4
2014 Q2
2014 Q4
2015 Q2
2015 Q4
2016 Q2
0.98
0.63
0.39
0.31
0.79
1.33
0.0
0.58
€bn
0.5 0.14
0.2 0.45
1.0
0.19
0.4
0.70
1.5
0.52
0.6
0.85
2.0
0.17
0.8
0.35
2.5
0.65
1.0
0.29
3.0
0.04
1.2
0.19
3.5
0.05
1.4
0.47
€bn
transaction volume, quarterly (left axis) transaction volume, past 12 months rolling (right axis)
0.0
2016 Q4
Source: Savills
Source: Savills
GRAPH 16
GRAPH 17
Transaction volume by origin of buyer
Transaction volume by type of investor Purchases, past 12 months Net investments, Ø past 5 years Open-ended special fund Private-equity fund Other asset manager Listed property company Closed-ended fund Leasing company Public administration Sovereign wealth fund Housing association Other Open-ended public fund Private investor / Family office Insurance company / Pension fund Bank Corporate Developer -1.0
Source: Savills
-0.5
Sales, past 12 months Net investments, past 12 months
0.0 €bn
0.5
1.0
Source: Savills
Düsseldorf market in minutes High investment activity on smaller properties •
Commercial property in Düsseldorf changed hands for approximately €2.3bn last year. While this meant an 18% decline in the transaction volume compared with the previous year, the number of assets sold fell by just 7%. The sustained high number of transactions reflected unabated high demand for property in Düsseldorf, leading us to expect continued high levels of investment activity in 2017.
•
Investment in 2016 was boosted in the fourth quarter by the acquisition of the future L’Oreal headquarters, which represented the largest transaction of the year. The acquisitions of the Karstadt department store and Hyatt Regency hotel followed in second and third places.
•
Faced with the lack of supply in the CBD, competition for properties in the immediate vicinity is intensifying. As a result, such assets are being purchased more frequently before undergoing a refurbishment or change of use. Consequently, such surrounding locations are expected to register increasing values.
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Market in Minutes | Germany Commercial Investment Market
Q4 2016
Commercial investment market Frankfurt Frankfurt again the capital of property investment | Biggest deal: Commerzbank Tower GRAPH 18
GRAPH 19
Transaction volume
Transaction volume by sector
2011 Q4
2012 Q2
2012 Q4
2013 Q2
2013 Q4
2014 Q2
2014 Q4
2015 Q2
2015 Q4
2016 Q2
3.42
1.46
0.78
0.68
1.53
0.57
0.0
1.38
€bn
1.0 1.78
0.5 0.97
2.0
2.40
1.0
1.14
3.0
0.38
1.5
0.72
4.0
1.05
2.0
0.60
5.0
0.93
2.5
0.86
6.0
1.61
3.0
0.09
7.0
0.46
3.5
0.81
€bn
transaction volume, quarterly (left axis) transaction volume, past 12 months rolling (right axis)
0.0
2016 Q4
Source: Savills
Source: Savills
GRAPH 20
GRAPH 21
Transaction volume by origin of buyer
Transaction volume by type of investor Purchases, past 12 months Net investments, Ø past 5 years Private-equity fund Insurance company / Pension fund Listed property company Other asset manager Sovereign wealth fund Open-ended special fund Other Public administration Housing association Leasing company Corporate Private investor / Family office Developer Open-ended public fund Closed-ended fund Bank -1.5
Source: Savills
-1.0
Sales, past 12 months Net investments, past 12 months
-0.5
0.0 0.5 €bn
1.0
1.5
2.0
Source: Savills
Frankfurt market in minutes Megadeals drive increase in transaction volume •
Frankfurt reclaimed its status as the German property investment capital in 2016. The transaction volume of €6.3bn represented an increase of 12% on the previous year’s total. The Frankfurt commercial investment market was particularly driven by a number of major transactions for landmark buildings, such as the Commerzbank Tower, the Taunusturm and the Squaire as part of the OfficeFirst portfolio.
•
Office property dominated investment activity in Frankfurt with 76% of the overall transaction volume. While the transaction volume for hotels rose significantly compared with the previous year (+116%), a lack of supply dictated that deals for retail property were scarce (-59% compared with 2015).
•
Investors also increasingly turned to properties in satellite and back-office locations last year, such as Eschborn and Neu-Isenburg (not included in the statistics for the Frankfurt market). As a result, properties in surrounding areas changed hands for around €1bn. These surrounding locations are also expected to remain in demand in 2017.
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Market in Minutes | Germany Commercial Investment Market
Q4 2016
Commercial investment market Hamburg Investment volume of €4.7bn | Private investors and family offices sell significantly more GRAPH 22
GRAPH 23
Transaction volume
Transaction volume by sector
2011 Q4
2012 Q2
2012 Q4
2013 Q2
2013 Q4
2014 Q2
2014 Q4
2015 Q2
2015 Q4
2016 Q2
1.88
0.90
1.03
0.92
0.91
1.38
€bn
0.5
0.0
1.05
0.2
0.90
1.0 1.47
1.5
0.4 0.63
2.0
0.6
0.75
0.8
0.53
2.5
1.26
3.0
1.0
0.48
1.2
0.58
3.5
0.49
4.0
1.4
0.75
4.5
1.6
0.40
1.8
0.19
5.0
0.52
2.0
0.46
€bn
transaction volume, quarterly (left axis) transaction volume, past 12 months rolling (right axis)
0.0
2016 Q4
Source: Savills
Source: Savills
GRAPH 24
GRAPH 25
Transaction volume by origin of buyer
Transaction volume by type of investor Purchases, past 12 months Net investments, Ø past 5 years Open-ended special fund Private-equity fund Other asset manager Listed property company Open-ended public fund Public administration Sovereign wealth fund Housing association Other Corporate Leasing company Bank Closed-ended fund Insurance company / Pension fund Developer Private investor / Family office -1.5
Source: Savills
-1.0
Sales, past 12 months Net investments, past 12 months
-0.5
0.0 €bn
0.5
1.0
1.5
Source: Savills
Hamburg market in minutes Highest transaction volume since 2007 •
The transaction volume in the Hamburg commercial investment market reached almost €4.7bn last year, representing the second highest total on record. Only in 2007 was a higher volume achieved. The Hamburg properties in the OfficeFirst portfolio alone contributed around half a billion euros to the total and ensured a very strong final quarter (approx. €1.9bn).
•
Office properties provided for the majority of the investment volume with a share of 65%. Retail properties and hotels followed in second and third places with 14% and 5% respectively.
•
Open-ended special funds represented by far the most active investor group, accounting for 39% of the acquisition volume. From the perspective of these funds, which normally invest for the long term, Hamburg offers a relatively safe haven owing to its diversified and stable occupier market. Consequently, special funds are also expected to be the largest purchasers of commercial property in Hamburg in 2017.
savills.de/research
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Market in Minutes | Germany Commercial Investment Market
Q4 2016
Commercial investment market Cologne Transaction volume again above average | Biggest deals outside the city GRAPH 26
GRAPH 27
Transaction volume
Transaction volume by sector
2011 Q4
2012 Q2
2012 Q4
2013 Q2
2013 Q4
2014 Q2
2014 Q4
2015 Q2
2015 Q4
2016 Q2
0.67
0.78
0.15
0.20
0.94
0.45
0.66
0.14
0.0
0.79
€bn
0.4 0.19
0.2
0.12
0.8
0.30
0.4
0.43
1.2
0.09
0.6
0.03
1.6
0.25
0.8
0.17
2.0
0.03
1.0
0.26
2.4
0.15
1.2
0.12
€bn
transaction volume, quarterly (left axis) transaction volume, past 12 months rolling (right axis)
0.0
2016 Q4
Source: Savills
Source: Savills
GRAPH 28
GRAPH 29
Transaction volume by origin of buyer
Transaction volume by type of investor Purchases, past 12 months Net investments, Ø past 5 years Private-equity fund Open-ended special fund Listed property company Insurance company / Pension fund Open-ended public fund Bank Housing association Leasing company Sovereign wealth fund Private investor / Family office Closed-ended fund Public administration Other asset manager Corporate Other Developer -0.6
Source: Savills
-0.4
Sales, past 12 months Net investments, past 12 months
-0.2
0.0 €bn
0.2
0.4
0.6
Source: Savills
Cologne market in minutes Transaction activity was predominantly outside the city centre •
Cologne’s commercial investment market achieved a high transaction volume once again last year with investment deals totalling around €1.8bn (five-year average: €1.4bn). In a repeat of the previous year, which included the sale of the Lanxess Arena, there was also an exceptional major deal in 2016 in the form of the acquisition of the Zurich headquarters. Demand from investors will continue to far exceed supply in 2017.
•
The Cologne market has retained its local character in terms of investment. Accordingly, German purchasers accounted for 60% of the transaction volume. Owing to the piecemeal ownership structure in the city centre, it is difficult for foreign investors to secure appropriate properties.
•
However, a large proportion of transaction activity last year took place outside the City submarket. Of the five largest disposals, three were in Deutz, while Niehl and Ehrenfeld each accounted for a single deal. All of these situated outside the city centre.
savills.de/research
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Market in Minutes | Germany Commercial Investment Market
Q4 2016
Commercial investment market Munich Investment turnover like last year | Price rally spreads to surrounding region GRAPH 30
GRAPH 31
Transaction volume
Transaction volume by sector
2011 Q4
2012 Q2
2012 Q4
2013 Q2
2013 Q4
2014 Q2
2014 Q4
2015 Q2
2015 Q4
2016 Q2
2.62
1.30
0.95
0.99
1.90
1.54
0.0
1.55
€bn
1.0 0.89
0.5 1.43
2.0
1.20
1.0
0.60
3.0
1.12
1.5
2.26
4.0
0.88
2.0
0.57
5.0
0.74
2.5
1.14
6.0
0.55
3.0
0.68
7.0
0.34
3.5
0.86
€bn
transaction volume, quarterly (left axis) transaction volume, past 12 months rolling (right axis)
0.0
2016 Q4
Source: Savills
Source: Savills
GRAPH 32
GRAPH 33
Transaction volume by origin of buyer
Transaction volume by type of investor Purchases, past 12 months Net investments, Ø past 5 years Open-ended public fund Insurance company / Pension fund Private-equity fund Other asset manager Other Bank Leasing company Sovereign wealth fund Housing association Listed property company Private investor / Family office Public administration Corporate Developer Open-ended special fund Closed-ended fund -2.0
Source: Savills
-1.5
-1.0
Sales, past 12 months Net investments, past 12 months
-0.5
0.0 €bn
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
savills.de/research
10
Source: Savills
Munich market in minutes Large transactions drive investment to previous year’s level •
Investment in Munich commercial property totalled more than €5.8bn last year, which was approximately in line with the previous year’s figure. A number of large transactions in particular ensured that the Bavarian capital posted the second highest volume across the top seven markets. The Highlight Tower, BayWa headquarters and the Karstadt at the main train station, for example, all changed hands.
•
Many investors are also anticipating rising rents and are pricing these into their purchase price bids accordingly. As a result, yields on assets with rental growth potential may harden further.
•
Faced with a shortage of space and product within the city boundaries, more and more investors are considering properties in surrounding locations, which are not included in the statistics for the Munich market. Consequently, yields in surrounding areas will continue to harden, allowing owners to benefit significantly from the spillover effects of the Munich price rally.
Market in Minutes | Germany Commercial Investment Market
Q4 2016
Commercial investment market Stuttgart Strongest decrease in yields of all top 7 markets | Satellite locations increasingly asked GRAPH 34
GRAPH 35
Transaction volume
Transaction volume by sector
transaction volume, quarterly (left axis) transaction volume, past 12 months rolling (right axis) 2.5
0.8
2.0
0.6
1.5
0.4
1.0
0.2
0.5
2011 Q4
2013 Q2
2013 Q4
2014 Q2
2014 Q4
2015 Q2
2015 Q4
2016 Q2
0.88
0.34
0.25
0.34
0.68
0.43
0.45
0.23
0.14
0.20
0.43
0.13
0.19
0.32
0.08
2012 Q4
0.17
0.21
0.05
2012 Q2
0.46
0.16
0.0
0.14
€bn
€bn
1.0
0.0
2016 Q4
Source: Savills
Source: Savills
GRAPH 36
GRAPH 37
Transaction volume by origin of buyer
Transaction volume by type of investor Purchases, past 12 months Net investments, Ø past 5 years Private-equity fund Listed property company Private investor / Family office Corporate Bank Leasing company Open-ended public fund Public administration Other Sovereign wealth fund Other asset manager Housing association Closed-ended fund Insurance company / Pension fund Developer Open-ended special fund -0.6
Source: Savills
-0.4
Sales, past 12 months Net investments, past 12 months
-0.2
0.0 €bn
0.2
0.4
0.6
Source: Savills
Stuttgart market in minutes New record investment volume as yields harden significantly •
Stuttgart’s commercial investment market saw properties change hands for more than €1.8bn last year. This represents a modest increase on the previous year’s total (+1% compared with 2015) and a new record transaction volume. The high demand for property in Stuttgart also resulted in appreciable yield compression. Prime yields on office property fell by 80 basis points from the end of 2015, which was higher than in any other top-seven market.
•
While interest from international purchasers has been primarily focused on Stuttgart itself to date, these are also increasingly considering satellite locations, such as Böblingen/Sindelfingen, Ludwigsburg and Esslingen, whose investment totals are not reflected in the transaction volume for Stuttgart.
•
For purchasers seeking investment opportunities in Stuttgart’s city centre, however, the existing supply is scarce. Accordingly, early acquisition of development projects represents an increasingly significant alternative.
savills.de/research
11
Market in Minutes | Germany Commercial Investment Market
Q4 2016
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Savills is a leading global real estate service provider listed on the London Stock Exchange. The company, established in 1855, has a rich heritage with unrivalled growth. It is a company that leads rather than follows and now has over 700 offices and associates throughout the Americas, Europe, Asia Pacific, Africa and the Middle East with more than 30,000 employees worldwide. Savills is present in Germany with around 200 employees with seven offices in the most important estate sites Berlin, Dusseldorf, Frankfurt, Hamburg, Cologne, Munich and Stuttgart. This bulletin is for general informative purposes only. Whilst every effort has been made to ensure its accuracy, Savills accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from its use. The bulletin is strictly copyright and reproduction of the whole or part of it in any form is prohibited without written permission from Savills Research. © Savills January 2017
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