INEMI TECHNOLOGY ROADMAPS 2015 Foreword Acknowledgments Introduction Executive Summary Technology/Market Drivers Product Emulator Groups Portable & Wireless Product Sector Consumer Stationary & Office Systems Product Sector High-End Systems Product Sector Medical Products Sector Automotive Product Sector Aerospace & Defense Product Sector Design Technologies Modeling, Simulation, and Design Tools Thermal Management Environmentally Sustainable Electronics Manufacturing Technologies Board Assembly Test, Inspection, and Measurement Final Assembly Component/Subsystem Technologies Semiconductor Technology Photovoltaics Interconnect PCB – Organic Interconnect Substrates – Ceramic Passive Components RF Components and Subsystems Microelectromechanical Systems (MEMS) Optoelectronics Mass Data Storage Electronic Connectors Large Area, Flexible Electronics Solid State Illumination Energy Storage Systems Power Conversion Systems

© 2015 by iNEMI

iNEMI Technology Roadmaps

January 2015

FOREWORD As we celebrate our twentieth year of creating and exploiting technology roadmaps for the electronics industry, this is the eleventh edition of the industry’s most comprehensive set of technology roadmaps by the International Electronics Manufacturing Initiative (iNEMI). During this roadmap cycle, we continued our quest for true global representation with the addition of key Asian and European firms and organizations, helping to insure the validity and breadth of the technology projections. In addition, we strengthened our relationships with other roadmaps – such as the ITRS, PSMA and OIDA– to provide a more contiguous view of the future. What remains constant is our focus on leadership of the electronics manufacturing supply infrastructure. While our industry has enjoyed reasonable growth over the past 12 months, the landscape is very different from the past. Major restructuring continues, driven by the incessant need to respond rapidly to global markets, while at the same time, driving cost and inefficiencies out of the system. The complexity of the design/supply chain continues to increase as we witness the ongoing trends toward distributed design and manufacturing and the expansion of services to meet customer needs. Environmental regulations and awareness is multiplying at an increasing pace around the world, adding new requirements, complexity, challenges and opportunities to the supply equation. New products and services continue to come to market, addressing the expanding business opportunities and productivity improvements in high-growth areas such as mobile consumer applications, medical/wearable electronics, energy, safety, automotive, security and cloud computing. We believe that the electronics industry – coupled with the creative and cost-effective services that its products facilitate – will continue to be a major enabler in maintaining this trend. Further, we are convinced that this will help our fundamentally strong global economy maintain long-term sustainable growth. As specific products mature and get cost optimized rapidly in the market, new innovative products come forward. The competitive drive and sophistication in the electronics industry does in fact continuously create opportunities for companies to both emerge as new players, and to secure positions of significance in the industry. The collaborative focus in the early days of iNEMI was based on the belief that there was ample research being conducted and that the challenge was to foster investment in manufacturing infrastructure/volume capability. We have come full circle with today’s need to help identify key collaborative research needs and then work the communication linkages with key research institutes on top priorities. A notable output that supports this need from the iNEMI roadmaps is the Research Priority document. Just as roadmaps can focus the industry on technology deployment, so too can they help lay the foundation for a research agenda. We are actively working to grow the collaborative research agenda with industry, academia, and government to create real gap closing activities – using this latest roadmap as a critical resource.

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FOREWORD

The 2015 iNEMI Roadmap builds on the processes of, and lessons learned from, previous editions. In spite of the fact that most companies and individuals are “oversubscribed” in their day jobs, approximately 500 individuals from (at least) 20 countries, representing more than 280 organizations came together to create this product. Through sharing, analyzing, debating and reviewing, this diverse team developed the 2015 Roadmap. The credibility gained by previous roadmaps, and their subsequent global use, have made the roadmap self-fulfilling. It balances market needs against future technology capabilities, and through this creative tension, the industry has created a highly useful and relevant roadmap. Work has been specifically applied to make the top 5 development and top 5 research needs and gaps in each technology area clear such that a cross section of industry and academic resources can focus in on the areas of highest need. This is a unique deliverable of the iNEMI roadmap. With the growth of the global inputs, this iNEMI Roadmap will prove to be highly useful to industry, government, and academia in helping set the future direction of electronics manufacturing. It is a valuable snapshot of our industry in the third millennium. The challenge now shifts to leveraging these findings for the good of the electronics manufacturing supply infrastructure. While we work hard to improve this document on each successive cycle, there is always room for improvement. We welcome your thoughts and comments as you use this important reference document in your planning processes. Dr. Marc Benowitz

Senior Director, Bell Labs/CTO, Alcatel-Lucent Chairman, iNEMI Board of Directors Bill Bader

Executive Director & CEO, International Electronics Manufacturing Initiative, Inc.

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PORTABLE & WIRELESS PRODUCT SECTOR Contents Portable Wireless Product Sector ............................................................................................... 1 Executive Summary ................................................................................................................ 1 Introduction ............................................................................................................................. 3 Situation Analysis ................................................................................................................... 4 Market Growth .................................................................................................................... 4 Cost Constraints ................................................................................................................ 12 Semiconductor Growth ..................................................................................................... 12 Memory Growth................................................................................................................ 12 Wireless Growth ............................................................................................................... 13 Machine to Machine, Cloud Computing, Security And Trust .......................................... 13 Outsourced Design & Manufacturing, and the Supply Chain .......................................... 14 Roadmap of Quantified Key Attribute Needs ....................................................................... 15 Critical Issues (Infrastructure) .............................................................................................. 19 Supply Chain ..................................................................................................................... 19 Environmental Compliance .............................................................................................. 20 IC Device Shrink............................................................................................................... 21 Wireless Integration .......................................................................................................... 21 Prioritized Technology Requirements and Trends: Research, Development, Implementation .................................................................. 22 Design for Environment .................................................................................................... 22 Increased Modularization.................................................................................................. 22 Recommendations on Priorities and Alternative Technologies ............................................ 23 Display .............................................................................................................................. 23 Sensors, Mechanical and Electromechanical Design........................................................ 24 Component Integration ..................................................................................................... 24 Component Adoption, Package Development, and New Material Requirements ............ 28 Contributors .......................................................................................................................... 29

Tables Table 1. Key Parameters for Hand Held Product Sector .............................................................. 16

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CONSUMER STATIONARY & OFFICE SYSTEMS PRODUCT SECTOR Contents Consumer Stationary & Office Systems Product Sector .............................................................1 Executive Summary .................................................................................................................1 Situational Analysis .................................................................................................................1 Consumer Stationary/Office System Key Technology Drivers ...............................................5 Contributors ...........................................................................................................................12 References ..............................................................................................................................12 Glossary .................................................................................................................................12

Tables Table 1. Consumer/Office Emulator Table .................................................................................8

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HIGH-END SYSTEMS PRODUCT SECTOR Contents High End Product Sector .............................................................................................................1 Executive Summary .................................................................................................................1 Introduction ..............................................................................................................................2 State of the Markets .................................................................................................................5 Situation Analysis ....................................................................................................................5 HPC and Mainframes ...........................................................................................................6 Data Centers .........................................................................................................................7 Service Provider Equipment ................................................................................................7 Enterprise Communication Equipment ................................................................................8 Critical Infrastructure Issues ..................................................................................................13 Technology Requirements and Trends ..................................................................................14 Technology Challenges ......................................................................................................15 The Diversity of High-End Systems ..................................................................................16 Conclusions ............................................................................................................................18 References ..............................................................................................................................18 Contributors ...........................................................................................................................19 Tables Table 1: High-End Systems OEM revenues ...........................................................................6 Table 2: High-End Systems OEM revenues by geography ....................................................6 Table 3: Key Attributes Product Emulator ...........................................................................10 Figures Figure 1: The Internet of Things was “born” sometime between 2008/9 and the number of interconnect devices is growing. .........................................3 Figure 2: The amount of data that is produced is rapidly increasing. .....................................3 Figure 3: High-End Systems Equipment ................................................................................5

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MEDICAL PRODUCTS SECTOR Contents Medical Products Sector ..............................................................................................................1 Executive Summary .................................................................................................................1 Situation Analysis ....................................................................................................................2 Market Size Prediction .............................................................................................................4 Market Analysis: ......................................................................................................................7 Key Attribute Needs ..............................................................................................................12 Critical Issues and Gaps .........................................................................................................15 Technology Needs: Research, Development .........................................................................17 Gaps and Showstoppers .........................................................................................................19 Contributors ...........................................................................................................................21 Tables Table 1: Companies used in Market Analysis .............................................................................5 Table 2: Key Circuit Board Attributes .......................................................................................12 Table 3: Business cost attributes ................................................................................................13 Table 4: Key reliability requirements ........................................................................................14 Table 5: Key Component Requirements ....................................................................................15 Figures Figure 1: #People over 65 between 1960 to 2050 for Top 10 countries by population...............2 Figure 2: Population pyramid from year 2000 and 2050 projection............................................3 Figure 3: Projected # of cancer cases through 2035 ....................................................................3 Figure 4: Past and projected rate of overweight people USA, EU and Korea. ............................4 Figure 5: IHS Technology projection of Medical Electronics revenues through 2025. ..............6 Figure 6: Regional distribution of Medical Electronics Market ..................................................6

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AEROSPACE & DEFENSE PRODUCT SECTOR

Due to the loss of leadership priority late in the roadmap process, this PEG did not supply a final chapter at the time of publication. The TWGs did have the input from IHS Technology market forecast data and reports (during the roadmap process) from the Chair to formulate their chapters’ comparisons against PEG requirements and address them in their chapters. The editor therefore decided to keep the updated Aerospace & Defense forecast business information in the roadmap executive summary.

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DESIGN TECHNOLOGIES

MODELING, SIMULATION, AND DESIGN TOOLS Contents Modeling, Simulation, and Design tools .....................................................................................1 Introduction ..............................................................................................................................1 Key Roadmap Attributes ..........................................................................................................1 Focus Area Roadmaps .............................................................................................................2 System & Component Thermo-Mechanical Reliability ......................................................2 Thermal and Thermo-fluids .................................................................................................3 Electricals .............................................................................................................................4 Materials Characterization Correlation ................................................................................5 MEMS Related.....................................................................................................................6 Design Tools ........................................................................................................................7 High Temperature Electronics .............................................................................................8 MS&DT Technical Working Group Contributors ...................................................................9

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THERMAL MANAGEMENT Contents Thermal Management ..................................................................................................................1 Executive Summary .................................................................................................................1 Introduction & Situation Analysis ...........................................................................................2 Roadmap of Quantified Key Attribute Needs ..........................................................................4 High-End Systems ...............................................................................................................7 Liquid (Water) Cooling of Data Centers: ..........................................................................28 Consumer/Office Systems .................................................................................................44 Portable/ Wireless: .............................................................................................................57 Medical Devices and Systems ...........................................................................................58 LED Light Emitting Diodes ...............................................................................................61 Critical Issues in Thermal Management ................................................................................71 Technology Needs .................................................................................................................73 Thermal Materials ..............................................................................................................73 Thermal Spreaders - Heatsinks ..........................................................................................75 Thermal Interfaces .............................................................................................................76 Heat Pipes ..........................................................................................................................77 Air Cooling ........................................................................................................................79 Liquid (Water) Cooling......................................................................................................80 Direct Immersion Cooling .................................................................................................95 Refrigeration Cooling ........................................................................................................96 Thermoelectric Cooling .....................................................................................................97 Thermal Design Modeling and Tools ................................................................................98 Gaps and Showstoppers .......................................................................................................107 High-end Systems ............................................................................................................107 Netcom .............................................................................................................................107 Consumer/Office Systems ...............................................................................................107 Portable/ Wireless ............................................................................................................108 Automotive Electronics ...................................................................................................108 Medical Devices...............................................................................................................108 Power Electronics ............................................................................................................108 LEDs ................................................................................................................................110 Gaps and Show Stopper Summary ..................................................................................110 Research Needs ....................................................................................................................111 Research needs in thermal management (power electronics) ..........................................111 Thermal Spreaders ...........................................................................................................112 Thermal Interfaces ...........................................................................................................112 Heat Pipes ........................................................................................................................113 Air Cooling ......................................................................................................................113 Water Cooling ..................................................................................................................113 Direct Liquid Immersion..................................................................................................114

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Sub-Ambient and Refrigeration Cooling .........................................................................114 Low Temperature Refrigeration ......................................................................................114 Electro-thermal Co-design Tools .....................................................................................114 Recommendations ..................................................................................................................115 References ..............................................................................................................................115 Glossary .................................................................................................................................117 Contributors ...........................................................................................................................118

Tables Table 1: Single-chip Packages Technology Requirements * .....................................................5 Table 2: Thermo physical Property Comparison: Water vs Air ............................................30 Table 3: ©ASHRAE Liquid Cooling Guidelines (reprinted with permission).......................41 Table 4: Part of the iNEMI Automotive Electronics Roadmap 2013 which is relevant for power electronics and the Thermal Management Roadmap.................................49 Table 5: Properties of Traditional and Selected Advanced Thermal Management Materials ( xy – In-plane; z – Through-plane) ......................................................................75 Table 6: Thermal Improvements Needed by Product Sector .................................................110

Figures Figure 1: Cooling Cost vs. Thermal Dissipation ......................................................................3 Figure 2a: Power Dissipation in W ...........................................................................................6 Figure 2b: Heat Flux of µPs in W/m2 ........................................................................................7 Figure 3a: Maximum Chip Power Trend in Netcom Applications (ref: 1)...............................9 Figure 3b: Maximum Chip Heat Flux Trend in Netcom Applications (ref: 1) .........................9 Figure 4: Thermal Conductivity and CTE of Various Materials (ref: 1) ................................11 Figure 5: Thermal Loading at the Facility Level for Various Product Families ....................12 Figure 6: Thermal Technology Requirements and Choices (ref: Huawei Technologies) ......13 Figure 7a: Cascade Effect of Energy Savings from Equipment to Data Center .....................14 Figure 7b: Cascade Effect of Energy Savings from Equipment to Data Center .....................15 Figure 8: Example of Passive Solutions for Noise Reduction (ref: 5) ...................................17 Figure 9: IBM Water-Air Heat Exchangers in Cabinets .........................................................17 Figure 10: IBM Rear Door Heat Exchanger ...........................................................................18 Figure 11: IBM Power 6 Water Cooled Cluster (ref: 6) .........................................................18 Figure 12: Fujitsu High End Server GS8900 (ref: 7) .............................................................19 Figure 13: General Liquid Cooling Loop in Equipment .........................................................20 Figure 14: Active Liquid Cooled Rack ...................................................................................20 Figure 15: Active Dielectric Liquid Cooled Rack ..................................................................21 Figure 16: Typical Outdoor Enclosures ..................................................................................22 Figure 17: Basic Thermal Configurations in Outdoor Enclosure ...........................................22 Figure 18: Outdoor Geo-Thermal Cabinet (ref: 4) .................................................................23 Figure 19: Natural Convection for OSP Cabinet (ref: 4)........................................................24 Figure 20: Typical Remote Radio Head (RRH) (ref: 4) .........................................................24 Figure 21: Light Weight Heat Sink with RRH Power Amplifier (ref: 4) ...............................25 Figure 22: Evolution of Processor Module Level Heat Flux in High-End Servers ................29

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Figure 23: Figure 24: Figure 25: Figure 26: Figure 27:

Liquid (Water) Cooling Implementations .............................................................32 External Water Cooling Utilizing an External Coolant Distribution Unit (CDU) 33 Schematic: (Internal) Closed Loop Cooling.........................................................33 Apple Power Mac G5 Internal Liquid Cooling System ........................................34 Commercially Available Desktop Internal Liquid Cooling Systems: (a) CoolIT Systems, (b) Asetek, Inc. .................................................................34 Figure 28: IBM zEnterprise EC12 Processor (Internal Liquid) Cooling System ...................35 Figure 29: IBM Water Cooled Processor - Thermal Conduction Module (TCM) .................36 Figure 30: IBM Power 775 Supercomputer – Water Cooled Processors [7] ..........................36 Figure 31: Fujitsu K Supercomputer – Modular Liquid Cooling Unit (LCU) .......................37 Figure 32: Aluminum Plate with Embedded Copper Tube Cold Plate...................................38 Figure 33: IBM Power 775 Supercomputer – Water Cooled Memory...................................39 Figure 34: IBM System 360 – Indirect (Hybrid) Air / Water Cooling ...................................39 Figure 35: Rear Door Heat Exchanger....................................................................................40 Figure 36: ©ASHRAE Liquid Cooling Classification – Typical Infrastructure Design Schematics (reprinted with permission) ...........................................................42 Figure 37: Desktop PC Second Level Thermal Solution Requirement Trends (ref: 2) ..........45 Figure 38: Notebook Computer CPU Power Trend (ref: 2) ...................................................46 Figure 39: Range of power electronics applications ...............................................................48 Figure 40: Potential ‘ideal’ selections matching CTEs and high thermal conductivity .........50 Figure 41: Technology roadmap for Si-MOSFETs and GaN devices (International Rectifier, IEEE APEC 2010), showing the increase of the Figure of Merit ......................52 Figure 42a: Power semiconductor module: Cu metallization of IGBTs, diode chips, thick Cu bond wires ...........................................................................................53 Figure 42b: Improved reliability due to Cu technology..........................................................53 Figure 43: Power module using a planar interconnect technology .........................................54 Figure 44: Spreading/high current tracks and fine pitch for SMT ..........................................55 Figure 45: SMD-Pads of 1mm copper inlay ...........................................................................55 Figure 46: Build Up of a High Current PCB "X-Cool SMT" .................................................56 Figure 47: Integrated Power Board with Water Cooling ........................................................56 Figure 48: Moving heat through heat pipes into a finned heat sink........................................60 Figure 49: Packaged LED heat flux as a function of package size. ........................................62 Figure 50: Thermal management impact on solid-state lighting product design....................63 Figure 51: Sources of heat generation in an LED lighting system. ........................................65 Figure 52: Relative Cooling Potential Of Various Modes Of Cooling ...................................72 Figure 53: Vapor Chamber Heat Spreader..............................................................................76 Figure 54: Examples Of Heat Pipes Used For Electronics Cooling .......................................78 Figure 55: Heat pipe for wind energy, solar energy, automotive, railway and aircraft applications (-55°C to 175°C) ..........................................................................78 Figure 56: Example Of A Large Air-Cooled Heat Sink For A High Performance Processor Module ..............................................................................................79 Figure 57: Closed Loop Water-Cooling System With Heat Rejection To Air .......................80 Figure 58: Water Cooled Rack For Server And Netcom Applications ..................................81 Figure 59: Speed Distribution Profile for free flow streams with various degrees of swirling applied .............................................................................................83 Figure 60: Hydrodynamic jet-streams flow ............................................................................84

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Figure 61: Thermal Performance (based on Thermal resistance) ...........................................86 Figure 62: Hydraulic Performance (based on pressure drop) .................................................87 Figure 63: Max Thermal Performance for Max Heat Flux based on Local Thermal Resistance .............................................................................................................88 Figure 64: Temperature field simulation with micro channel Structure for cooling IGBT module ..................................................................................................................89 Figure 65: Temperature field simulation Swirling Jet-Streams Structure for cooling the same IGBT Module........................................................................................................90 Figure 66: (a) Cold plate CTS-V-series for cooling microprocessors ..................................91 (b) Cold Plate CTS – W- series for cooling IGBT modules.................................91 Figure 67: Exploded view and cross section of the PINFin cooler.........................................92 Figure 68: Shower Power relative to the pin-fin design .........................................................93 Figure 69: Shower Power, power module...............................................................................93 Figure 70: Components and relative positioning of VDF system components. .....................94 Figure 71: Functioning of the pumpless water cooling system ..............................................95 Figure 72: Outstanding performance ......................................................................................95 Figure 73: Liquid Jet Impingement And Spray Cooling ........................................................96 Figure 74: Refrigeration Loop And Components For Cooling A High Performance Processor .........................................................................96 Figure 75: Cooling Enhancement Of An Electronic Module .................................................97 Figure 76: Typical multi-material assembly for a high-power electronic module .................99 Figure 77: Examples of stresses: Thermal cycle profile, shock profile, and vibration profile ........................................................................................102 Figure 78: Cross section of PowerPAD Package on a PCB, showing Heat Transfer paths .104 Figure 79: State of the Art for Power Electronics (ref 9) .....................................................109

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ENVIRONMENTALLY SUSTAINABLE ELECTRONICS Contents Environmentally Sustainable Electronics ....................................................................................1 Overall Executive Summary ....................................................................................................1 Key recommendations and issues raised in the five sections...................................................1 Eco-Design Executive Summary .............................................................................................4 Introduction ..........................................................................................................................4 Situation Analysis ................................................................................................................5 Changes Since 2013 Roadmap.............................................................................................8 Critical Issues .......................................................................................................................8 Market Drivers for EcoDesign ...........................................................................................12 EcoDesign Tools and Resources ........................................................................................14 Technology and Business Needs .......................................................................................19 Gaps and Showstoppers .....................................................................................................21 Recommendations ..............................................................................................................21 Eco-Design Sustainability vision .......................................................................................22 Sustainability Executive Summary ........................................................................................23 Introduction ........................................................................................................................23 Situation Analysis ..............................................................................................................24 Critical Issues .....................................................................................................................40 Critical issues / activities: ..................................................................................................43 Technology and Business Needs .......................................................................................45 Gaps and Showstoppers .....................................................................................................49 Recommendations ..............................................................................................................51 Recycling Executive Summary ..............................................................................................55 Introduction ........................................................................................................................55 Situation Analysis ..............................................................................................................55 Business/Technical Issues ..................................................................................................60 Roadmap of Quantified Key Attribute Needs ....................................................................61 Critical Issues (Prioritized) ................................................................................................61 Technology Needs .............................................................................................................61 Gaps and Showstoppers .....................................................................................................62 Recommendations ..............................................................................................................62 Materials Executive Summary ...............................................................................................62 Situation Analysis ..............................................................................................................62 Critical Issues .....................................................................................................................64 Technology and Business Needs .......................................................................................65 Gaps and Showstoppers .....................................................................................................66 Recommendations ..............................................................................................................67 Energy Executive Summary ..................................................................................................69 Energy – Introduction ........................................................................................................69

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ENVIRONMENTALLY SUSTAINABLE ELECTRONICS

Situational Analysis ...........................................................................................................74 Critical Issues .....................................................................................................................80 Technology and Business Needs .......................................................................................81 Gaps and Show Stoppers ...................................................................................................86 Recommendations ..............................................................................................................87 Contributors ...........................................................................................................................89 Glossary .................................................................................................................................91

Tables Table 1: iNEMI Environmentally Sustainable Electronics: Roadmap and Vision ................53

Figures Figure 1. Predicted Internet traffic for 2017. .........................................................................40 Figure 2. Projected total mobile network data traffic. ..........................................................41

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BOARD ASSEMBLY Contents Board Assembly ...........................................................................................................................1 Executive Summary .................................................................................................................1 Introduction ..............................................................................................................................3 Situational (Infrastructure) Analysis ........................................................................................4 Business Trends ...................................................................................................................4 Component Trends ...............................................................................................................7 PCB Trends ..........................................................................................................................7 Assembly Materials .............................................................................................................8 SMT Process ........................................................................................................................8 Part Placement .....................................................................................................................9 Wave and Selective Soldering .............................................................................................9 Rework and Repair ............................................................................................................10 Impact of Miniaturization on Assembly Technology ........................................................11 Roadmap of Quantified Key Attribute Needs ........................................................................11 Cross Cutting Technologies ...............................................................................................12 New Product Introduction ............................................................................................. 12 Introduction ............................................................................................................... 12 Situational Analysis .................................................................................................. 13 Key Attributes ........................................................................................................... 17 Critical Issues ............................................................................................................ 18 Technology Needs .................................................................................................... 18 Business Issues.......................................................................................................... 20 Assembly Materials ...................................................................................................... 20 Assembly Materials Forecast .................................................................................... 22 Assembly Materials Technology Needs ................................................................... 25 Business Issues, Gaps and Showstoppers ................................................................. 34 Cross Cutting Issues, Gaps and Showstoppers ......................................................... 35 Prioritized Research & Development ....................................................................... 36 Process Technologies .........................................................................................................38 Process Technology: SMT and DCA............................................................................ 38 Interconnect Material Application: Printing ............................................................. 40 Reflow ....................................................................................................................... 43 Cleaning .................................................................................................................... 45 Dispense Interconnect Process .................................................................................. 46 Direct Chip Attach .................................................................................................... 47 Part Placement .............................................................................................................. 48 Situational Analysis .................................................................................................. 48 Equipment Trends ..................................................................................................... 49 Future needs .............................................................................................................. 49 Roadmap of Quantified Key Attribute Needs ........................................................... 50 Wave and Selective Soldering ...................................................................................... 51

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Situational (Infrastructure) Analysis ......................................................................... 51 Roadmap of Quantified Key Attribute Needs ........................................................... 52 Critical Infrastructure and Technology Issues .......................................................... 54 Gaps and Showstoppers ............................................................................................ 56 Press-Fit ........................................................................................................................ 57 Introduction ............................................................................................................... 57 Placement & Insertion............................................................................................... 59 Inspection .................................................................................................................. 61 Testing Challenges .................................................................................................... 63 Orthogonal Systems .................................................................................................. 63 Connector Compliant Pin Continuity and Resistance ............................................... 63 Repair ........................................................................................................................ 63 Finished Holes Sizes ................................................................................................. 64 Challenges and Issues ............................................................................................... 64 Prioritized Research & Development ....................................................................... 69 Process Technology: Repair and Rework ..................................................................... 69 Situational (Infrastructure) Analysis ......................................................................... 69 Rework and Repair Technology Forecast ................................................................. 71 Critical Infrastructure and Technology Issues .......................................................... 78 Process Technology Gaps and Showstoppers ........................................................... 93 Process Technology-Advanced ESD Process Capability* ....................................... 95 Gaps and Showstoppers .........................................................................................................98 Disruptive Technologies and Events .....................................................................................99 Prioritized Research & Development ....................................................................................99 Recommendations ............................................................................................................100 Contributors .........................................................................................................................101 Participants ...........................................................................................................................102 Glossary ...............................................................................................................................103 Tables Table 1: Impacts of embedded passive implementation at various assembly levels ................ 6 Table 2: Attributes of NPI....................................................................................................... 17 Table 3: Assembly Materials Technology Needs ................................................................... 32 Table 4: Interconnect Materials Deposition Technology Forecast ......................................... 38 Table 5: Reflow Technology Forecast .................................................................................... 39 Table 6: Printing Process Application Technology Needs ..................................................... 42 Table 7: Reflow Technology Needs ....................................................................................... 45 Table 8: Omitted ........................................................................................................................ Table 9: Omitted ......................................................................................................................... Table 10: Pick-and-Place Technology Forecast ..................................................................... 50 Table 11: Wave and Selective Soldering Technology Forecast in Asia ................................. 52 Table 12: Wave and Selective Soldering Technology Forecast in Europe ............................. 53 Table 13: Wave and Selective Soldering Technology Forecast in North America ................ 53 Table 14: Wave and Selective Soldering Technology Global Forecast ................................. 54 Table 15: Wave and Selective Soldering Technology Needs ................................................. 56 Table 16: Press Fit Connector Key Attribute Roadmap ........................................................ 59 iNEMI Technology Roadmaps

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Table 17: Examples of Reduced Finished PTH Size, Tail Length and Higher Speed........... 64 Table 18a: Hand Solder Rework SnPb .................................................................................. 71 Table 18b: Hand Solder Pb-free ............................................................................................ 71 Table 19a: Pin-Through-Hole Rework SnPb ......................................................................... 73 Table 19b: Pin-Through-Hole Rework Pb-free ..................................................................... 74 Table 20a: Area Array and Non-Standard Package Rework ................................................. 75 Table 20b: Area Array and Non-Standard Package Rework ................................................. 77 Table 21: Hand Solder Rework – Pitch and Components ..................................................... 79 Table 22: Convection Connector Rework Temperatures (Ref: VJ Electronix) ..................... 83 Table 23: Pin-Through-Hole Rework .................................................................................... 84 Table 24a: Area Array and Non-Standard Package Rework SnPb ........................................ 86 Table 24b: Area Array and Non-Standard Package Rework Pb-free .................................... 87 Figures Figure 1: EON (Eye of the Needle) Style Compliant Pin and Cross Sectional View within PCB. Press Fit Connectors Installed on PCB ......................................... 58 Figure 2: Typical Press-fit Compliant Pin Faults ................................................................... 61 Figure 3: typical connector with no failure (top) and failing pins (bottom) .......................... 62 Figure 4: X-ray of bent-under and crushed EON pins on a backplane .................................. 62 Figure 5: Cross Cutting: Press Fit Pin Testing Forecast High speed communication and signal integrity............................................................................................ 66 Figure 6: Example of Bent Pin With TDR Data .................................................................... 67 Figure 7: Automatic Connector / Pin placement and Pin Tail inspection.............................. 68 Figure 8: Missing solder in TH barrel pin to rework. Ref: VJ Electronix ............................. 81 Figure 9: PTH Connector Removal using Convection Heat. Reference: VJ Electronix ....... 82 Figure 10: Copper Dissolution and Insufficient Hole fill (Ref: Celestica 2007) ................... 83 Figure 11: Plastic Connector Housing deformation from PTH rework heat (Ref: IBM 2007) .............................................................................................. 83 Figure 12: Ref: Sjoberg, J., et al, Flextronics, “Process Development and Reliability Evaluation for Inline Package on Package (PoP) Assembly”, SMTAI, 2007 88 Figure 13: Low Viscosity Solder Paste Transfer on PoP Components ................................. 90 Figure 14: Rework Process Temperature Range Corresponding to Tin-Lead and Lead-Free SnAgCu Solder Alloys .......................................................... 91 Figure 15: Failure Pareto of semiconductor component ........................................................ 95 Figure 16: HBM (left) and CDM (Charged-Device Model - right) roadmaps ...................... 96 Figure 17: Measure connector charging by field meter ......................................................... 97 Figure 18: Plastic casing charging measurement ................................................................... 98

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TEST, INSPECTION, AND MEASUREMENT Contents Test, Inspection, and Measurement .............................................................................................1 Executive Summary .................................................................................................................1 Introduction ..............................................................................................................................2 Situation Analysis ....................................................................................................................5 Roadmap of Quantified Key Attribute Needs ........................................................................13 Electrical Test Pad Size .....................................................................................................13 Product Internal Data Transfer Rate ..................................................................................14 External Serial Bus Data Rate............................................................................................15 Built in Self Test / Boundary Scan ....................................................................................15 Minimum Electrical Test Pad Access ................................................................................17 Critical Issues .........................................................................................................................19 Test Economics ..................................................................................................................19 Test Coverage, Defect Detection / Prevention ...................................................................20 Impact Of The Switch to Environmentally Friendly Materials On TIM ...........................21 Global Test Development / Implementation ......................................................................24 Technology Needs .................................................................................................................24 Mfg. Processes ...................................................................................................................24 Environmental Sustainability .............................................................................................24 Energy Management ..........................................................................................................25 Medical Standards & Technology .....................................................................................25 Packaging/Miniaturization .................................................................................................25 Enterprise Systems .............................................................................................................25 Materials ............................................................................................................................25 Test Inspection Measurement Research Priorities .................................................................25 Cross Cutting Technology Issues...........................................................................................27 Interconnection Substrates .................................................................................................27 Digital Silicon Technology ................................................................................................29 Printed Circuit Board Assembly ........................................................................................29 Final Assembly ..................................................................................................................29 Modeling, Simulation & Design Tools ..............................................................................29 RF Components & Subsystems .........................................................................................30 Information Management...................................................................................................30 Gaps and Showstoppers .........................................................................................................31 Recommendations ..................................................................................................................32 iNEMI Test TIG Project Efforts ............................................................................................32 Glossary .................................................................................................................................34 Contributors ...........................................................................................................................35

Tables Table 1. Global Electronics Production by Region* .................................................................... 10 Table 2. Board Level Testing and TIM Look-Across................................................................... 10

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DESIGN TECHNOLOGIES

TEST, INSPECTION, AND MEASUREMENT

Table 3. System Level Testing TIM Look-Across ....................................................................... 11 Table 4. Testpad (min) size in mils............................................................................................... 13 Table 5. Boundary Scan Standards and Initiatives ....................................................................... 18 Table 6. Test Gap Analysis ........................................................................................................... 31

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FINAL ASSEMBLY Contents Final Assembly ........................................................................................................................... 1 Executive Summary .................................................................................................................1 Introduction ..............................................................................................................................4 Situation Analysis ....................................................................................................................5 Key Drivers for Final Assembly ......................................................................................... 5 Impact to Product and Final Assembly ............................................................................... 8 Product Sector Analysis ...................................................................................................... 9 Regional Analysis ............................................................................................................. 20 Roadmap of Quantified Key Attribute Needs ........................................................................22 Critical Issues .........................................................................................................................27 Lack of Common Industry Strategies and Solutions for Final Assembly ........................ 27 Use of Design for Assembly/ Manufacturability Tools .................................................... 27 Advancements in Human Centered Automation .............................................................. 28 Increasing Product Traceability Requirements ................................................................. 28 Development of Product Design Standards ...................................................................... 28 Quality Improvement - Test and Performance Metrics .................................................... 29 Product Customization and Design Postponement ........................................................... 29 Assembly Process and Technology Divergence ............................................................... 29 Pressure to Reduce Final Assembly Costs ........................................................................ 29 Technology Needs .................................................................................................................30 Gaps and Showstoppers .........................................................................................................30 Lack of Definitions / Standards ........................................................................................ 30 Lack of Standard Process Metrics..................................................................................... 30 Extended Deployment Time ............................................................................................. 30 Process Monitoring and Verification Gaps ....................................................................... 31 Recommendations ..................................................................................................................31 Appendix ................................................................................................................................32 Common Final Assembly Processes ................................................................................. 32 Glossary .................................................................................................................................35 Contributors ...........................................................................................................................36 References ..............................................................................................................................36

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MANUFACTURING TECHNOLOGIES Figures Figure 1: Figure 2: Figure 3: Figure 4: Figure 5: Figure 6: Figure 7: Figure 8:

FINAL ASSEMBLY

Product Drivers..........................................................................................................6 Projected Global Electronics Production by Sector ................................................18 Trends by Product Sector ........................................................................................19 Regional Electronics Production by Product Sector ...............................................20 2013 Regional Electronics Production by Product Sector ($ Billion).....................21 2013 Production by Region .....................................................................................22 Final Product Assembly Cost Projections (Normalized Data) ................................23 Projected Reduction in Program Cycle Time ..........................................................24

Tables Table 1: Table of Quantified Key Attribute Needs .................................................................25 Table 2: Assembly Process Matrix .........................................................................................32

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SEMICONDUCTOR TECHNOLOGY Contents Semiconductor Technology ..........................................................................................................1 Executive Summary .................................................................................................................1 UPDATED FOR 2015 - the iNTRS Chapter Special Applications and Business Environment Topics: ........................................................................................................8 Introduction to the iNEMI Semiconductor Technology Roadmap (iNSTR) History; Business and Technical Environment; and Chapter Content .........................................14 Situation Analysis ..................................................................................................................15 Gaps and Showstoppers .........................................................................................................15 Overview ............................................................................................................................15 In the Near Term (through ~ 2020)—Enhancing Performance .........................................15 In the Near Term (through ~ 2020)—Cost-Effective Manufacturing ...............................23 In The Long Term (2021 through 2028) —Enhancing Performance ................................27 In The Long Term (2021 through 2028) —Cost-Effective Manufacturing .......................30 Roadmap of Quantified Key Attribute Needs (RQKAN) for Semiconductor Technology ...31 Background ........................................................................................................................31 2014 ITRS Update Work in Progress Status ca. 3Q14 ......................................................37 Glossary: ................................................................................................................................48 Contributors ...........................................................................................................................57 Appendix A: 2013 iNEMI Roadmap of Quantified Key Attribute Needs for Semiconductor Technology Tables .........................................................................................................64 Figures Figure 1: Figure 2: Figure 3: Figure 4: Figure 5:

Moore’s Law and More................................................................................................5 iNEMI Emulator / ITRS System Drivers Conceptual Domain-Space Diagram ..........9 iNEMI Emulator Market Application “Matrix Alignment” ........................................9 Scenario for End-Market mapping approach between iNEMI and ITRS roadmaps .10 SD2 Application Needs Driver: Integrated Power Amplifier and RF/AMS and PA Scenario Study Concept ............................................................................12 Figure 6: SD3 Application Needs Driver: Integrated Power Amplifier Scenario ....................12 Figure 7: SD4 Alternative Application Needs Driver: Integrated Tuner/Demodulator Scenario .................................................................................................................13 Figure 8: (Figure 1a) A Typical Technology Production “Ramp” Curve (within an established wafer generation) ...............................................................36 Figure 9: (Figure 1b) A Typical Technology Production “Ramp” Curve for ERD/ERM Research and PIDS Transfer .................................................................................37 Figure 10: (ORTC1) 2013 ITRS—DRAM and Flash Memory Half Pitch Trends ...................43 Figure 11: (ORTC2) 2011 ITRS—MPU/ASIC Half Pitch and Gate Length Trends ................43

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SEMICONDUCTOR TECHNOLOGY

Figure 12: (ORTC3) 2013 ITRS—Logic SRAM Cell Area Trends .........................................44 Figure 13: (ORTC4) 2013 ITRS—Logic Gate Density Trends ................................................45 Tables Table A Improvement Trends for ICs Enabled by Feature Scaling ...........................................2 Table 1: (SD 2) Illustration of potential references between iNEMI and ITRS roadmaps .......10 Table 2: (ORTC1) Summary of 2013 ORTC Technology Trend Targets–2013-2020 .............46

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PHOTOVOLTAICS Contents Overview ......................................................................................................................................1 Crystalline Silicon........................................................................................................................3 Overview ..................................................................................................................................3 PV cell interconnect Technology .............................................................................................5 Materials & Substrates .............................................................................................................7 Emerging Technology ..............................................................................................................7 Processes, Equipment & Metrology ........................................................................................7 Module Assembly ....................................................................................................................8 Market Outlook ........................................................................................................................9 Concentrating Photovoltaics ......................................................................................................17 Overview ................................................................................................................................17 Materials & Substrates ...........................................................................................................19 Processes, Equipment & Metrology ......................................................................................19 Packaging ...............................................................................................................................19 Market Outlook ......................................................................................................................20 Thin-Film Amorphous Silicon ...................................................................................................23 Addressing the Efficiency Challenge for Thin Film Silicon..................................................24 Manufacturing Process for Thin Film Silicon (on glass substrate)........................................24 Front End Manufacturing Processes ......................................................................................25 Back End Manufacturing Processes .......................................................................................25 Critical Materials & Substrates Needed for Manufacture ......................................................26 Quantified Key Attributes ......................................................................................................26 Gaps & Showstoppers ............................................................................................................26 Prioritized List of Technology Requirements & Trends ........................................................26 Emerging Technology ............................................................................................................27 Summary ................................................................................................................................27 Thin-Film Cadmium Telluride Photovoltaics ............................................................................28 Technology Overview ............................................................................................................28 Materials and Substrates ........................................................................................................30 Equipment and Metrology .....................................................................................................31 Policy .....................................................................................................................................31 Technology Advancement .....................................................................................................32 Thin-Film CIGS .........................................................................................................................33 Overview ................................................................................................................................33 Manufacture ...........................................................................................................................33 Materials & Substrates ...........................................................................................................34 Processes, Equipment & Metrology ......................................................................................35 Technology Roadmap: Quantified Key Attributes ................................................................36 Gaps & Showstoppers ............................................................................................................37 Packaging ...............................................................................................................................38

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PHOTOVOLTAICS

Recommendations ..................................................................................................................38 Thin-Film Organic Photovoltaics ..............................................................................................39 Balance-of-System: Solar PV Inverters .....................................................................................43 Technology Overview ............................................................................................................43 Critical Materials ...................................................................................................................45 Power Semiconductors ...........................................................................................................45 Gaps & Showstoppers ............................................................................................................47 Technology Requirements & Trends .....................................................................................47 Materials ....................................................................................................................................48 Crystalline Silicon PV............................................................................................................48 Silicon Supply ........................................................................................................................48 Outlook ..................................................................................................................................49 Contact Materials – Silver and Aluminum Paste ...................................................................49 Protective and Structural Materials ........................................................................................50 CIGS PV ................................................................................................................................50 Indium and Gallium Supplies ................................................................................................50 Indium ....................................................................................................................................51 Gallium ..................................................................................................................................52 CdTe .......................................................................................................................................54 PV Quality Assurance ................................................................................................................56 Policy & Photovoltaics ..............................................................................................................57 The SEMI PV Group’s Position on Incentives ......................................................................57 Feed-In Tariffs .......................................................................................................................58 Current Status.........................................................................................................................59 About the Semi PV Group .....................................................................................................61 Glossary .....................................................................................................................................62 Contributors ...............................................................................................................................64 Tables Table 1. Efficiency of Crystalline Silicon Technologies ........................................................ 5 Table 2. Crystalline Cell Overview....................................................................................... 11 Table 3. Roadmap of Key Technology needs for Multicrystalline Silicon Cells ................. 12 Table 4. Roadmap of Key Technology needs for Multicrystalline Silicon Modules ........... 12 Table 5. CPV Overview ........................................................................................................ 21 Table 6. Roadmap of Key Technology Needs for CPV Systems ......................................... 22 Table 7. Roadmap of Key Technology Needs for CIGS PV ................................................ 37 Table 8. Solar PV Cells ......................................................................................................... 42 Table 9. Inverter Efficiency Roadmap .................................................................................. 44 Table 10. Inverter Warranty Roadmap ................................................................................. 44 Figures Figure 1. Photovoltaic Technologies ...................................................................................... 2 Figure 2. Example Crystalline Module Structure ................................................................... 4 Figure 3. Standard H-type pattern solar cell ........................................................................... 6 Figure 4. ECN's special pattern MWT cell ............................................................................. 7 Figure 5. Typical Polycrystalline Silicon Solar Cell Production Process ............................... 9

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PHOTOVOLTAICS

Figure 6. ITRPV Wafer Thickness Reduction Forecast ....................................................... 13 Figure 7. Cell Emitter Sheet Resistance Forecast ................................................................. 14 Figure 8. Cell Finger Width .................................................................................................. 15 Figure 9. Forecast c-Si Market Share by Cell Type.............................................................. 16 Figure 10. Sketch of an Elementary HCPV Module............................................................. 18 Figure 11. Photo of an HCPV Module with 200 Small (4 x 4cm²) Fresnel Lenses.............. 18 Figure 12. CPV Installation from 2008 at the ISFOC Site Near Puertollano, Spain ............ 19 Figure 13. Forecast Annual Power of CPV Installations ...................................................... 20 Figure 14. Schematic of a-Si and Micromorph Technologies .............................................. 24 Figure 15. Thin-Film Silicon Manufacturing Flow .............................................................. 24 Figure 16. Typical CdTe Solar Module Structure. ............................................................... 30 Figure 17. CIGS PV Cell Cross Section ............................................................................... 34 Figure 18. Schematic structure of a polymer PV cell (left) and a PLED display (right) ...... 40 Figure 19. The AIST Organic Photovoltaic Cell .................................................................. 41 Figure 20. Polysilicon Supply Trend .................................................................................... 49 Figure 21. Indium Sources .................................................................................................... 51 Figure 22. Sources of Virgin & Reclaimed Indium .............................................................. 52 Figure 23. Gallium Sources .................................................................................................. 53 Figure 24. Sources of Virgin & Reclaimed Gallium ............................................................ 53 Figure 25. Breakdown of the Uses of Tellurium .................................................................. 55 Figure 26. PV Prices Decrease Proportional to Volume Shipped......................................... 60

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INTERCONNECT PCB - ORGANIC Contents Interconnect PCB - Organic...................................................................................................... 1 Executive Summary............................................................................................................... 1 Introduction .......................................................................................................................... 2 Situation Analysis ................................................................................................................... 4 Rigid Substrates .................................................................................................................. 4 Flexible Substrates .............................................................................................................. 4 Optoelectronic Substrates ................................................................................................... 6 Manufacturing Equipment (All Substrate Types) ........................................................... 8 Manufacturing Processes (Rigid Substrates) ...................................................................... 9 Manufacturing Processes (Optoelectronic Substrates) .......................................................... 12 Types of Waveguide Technology .................................................................................. 13 Materials (Rigid Substrates) ............................................................................................. 14 Materials (Flexible Substrates) ......................................................................................... 20 Metal Substrates ................................................................................................................ 22 Materials (Optoelectronic Substrates) ................................................................................... 25 Quality/Reliability ........................................................................................................... 27 Environmental .................................................................................................................. 28 Test, Inspection, and Measurement ................................................................................ 29 Backplane Testing ........................................................................................................... 31 Roadmap of Quantified Key Attributes ............................................................................. 32 Critical Issues ........................................................................................................................ 36 Components ..................................................................................................................... 36 Embedded Components .................................................................................................. 39 Frequency Drivers ........................................................................................................... 41 Computer Buses (Main Buses) ......................................................................................... 41 Board Flatness.................................................................................................................. 46 Liquid Coolants and Heat Sink Requirements .................................................................. 49 Optoelectronic Technologies .......................................................................................... 53 Technology Needs ............................................................................................................... 54 Technology Needs for Rigid Circuits ............................................................................ 54 Technology Need for Flexible Circuits.......................................................................... 55 Technology Needs for Optical Circuits ......................................................................... 55 Research Needs ..................................................................................................................... 56 Development Needs .............................................................................................................. 57 University and Government ............................................................................................ 58 Technical Cooperation .................................................................................................... 58 Design ............................................................................................................................... 58 Material Consistency ........................................................................................................ 58 Gaps and Showstoppers ........................................................................................................ 58 Recommendations ............................................................................................................... 62 Paradigm Shifts ................................................................................................................. 62 iNEMI Technology Roadmaps

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INTERCONNECT PCB – ORGANIC

Acronyms .............................................................................................................................. 64 Contributors .......................................................................................................................... 64

Tables Table 1: Current State of Rigid Board Substrate Technology (Product Boards) ..................4 Table 2: Consideration on Surface Finish Criteria ...................................................................18 Table 3: Flexible Design Process Description Matrix ..............................................................21 Table 4: Thermal Conductivity Classifications .....................................................................24 Table 5: Material Classifications for LED Boards ................................................................25 Table 6: Waveguide Performance Requirements ..................................................................25 Table 7: Test Condition Comparison Table ...........................................................................28 Table 8: Forecast of Rigid Board Technology (Product Boards) .........................................32 Table 9: HDI Category Descriptions .......................................................................................33 Table 10: HDI Technology Roadmap Portable Board Platforms (2015 Roadmap Table) .34 Table 11: HDI Technology Roadmap Product Board Platforms 2015 Roadmap Table ....35 Table 12: Data Rate Increasing over Time (Wikipedia.org/wiki) ..........................................41 Table 13: On Board Frequency (GHz) - Data from IPC Market Research 2014......................42 Table 14: Semiconductor and organic substrate technology gap .........................................43 Table 15: Chip and IC package expected operational life conditions.......................................50 Table 16: Emerging OE Technologies ....................................................................................53

Figures Figure 1: Flexible Circuit Hierarchy of Product and Technology Choices ...........................5 Figure 2: Optical Interconnection Integration from Network into System, MCM and Chip ....................................................................................................6 Figure 3: Optical Polymer Embedded into HDI Products ......................................................8 Figure 4: Film to Direct Laser Imaging Exposure Comparison .............................................9 Figure 5: Example of Rigid Printed Board Production Flow Manufacturing Processes ....10 Figure 6: Potential for Process Step Reduction in Conductor Formation ............................11 Figure 7: Double-Sided Flexible Printed Board Process with Stiffeners ............................12 Figure 8: Generic Etching, Molding, Embossing Waveguide Creation Processes ...................14 Figure 9: Laminate Cost of Ownership ..................................................................................16 Figure 10: Material Thermal Transfer Comparisons .............................................................23 Figure 11: Coupling to an embedded waveguide Courtesy: Martin Tarr ...........................26 Figure 12: Optimization of Waveguide Material and PCB Technology ..................................27 Figure 13: Test Fixture Density Comparison .........................................................................30 Figure 14: Via-in-Pad Structure ...............................................................................................38 Figure 15: Multilayer Interconnection for High Pin Count BGA ........................................44 Figure 16: Electrical Performance Challenges for some High Speed HDI Designs ...........45 Figure 17: Micro via traversing down to layer 3 of a multilayer structure ..........................46 Figure 18: QFN with Heat Spreader and Land Grid Array BTC Packages .........................47 Figure 19: Mounting Substrate Warpage Analysis ................................................................48 Figure 20: Glue Dot Solutions to BGA Warpage ..................................................................48 Figure 21: Symmetrical Constraining Core Board with a Copper-Invar-Copper Center Core ........................................................................................................49 Figure 22: BGA Component with Built–in Heat Sink ..............................................................51 iNEMI Technology Roadmaps

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COMPONENT/SUBSYSTEM TECHNOLOGIES Figure 23: Figure 24: Figure 25: Figure 26: Figure 27: Figure 28:

INTERCONNECT PCB – ORGANIC

Solder Paste Positioning Strategy—Segment vs. Dot Shapes ............................52 Projected Growth in Embedded Technology Usage ..........................................55 Six Layer Build Multilayer with any Layer Via Construction ................................60 Projected Increase in On-Board Frequency (GHz) .............................................61 One Prediction of Cost Impact of Higher Electrical Performance Materials .....61 Electronic Packaging Level Hierarchy ....................................................................62

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INTERCONNECT SUBSTRATES – CERAMIC AND

CRYSTALLINE PHOTOVOLTAIC CELL & MODULE TECHNOLOGY Contents Interconnection Substrates – Ceramic .........................................................................................1 Executive Summary .................................................................................................................1 Introduction ..............................................................................................................................3 Situation Analysis ....................................................................................................................7 Substrates .............................................................................................................................8 Thick Film Technology......................................................................................................10 High and Low Temperature Co-fired Ceramic Technology ..............................................12 Technology Trend ..............................................................................................................21 The Future Direction ..........................................................................................................28 Process Trends ...................................................................................................................31 Paradigm Shifts ..................................................................................................................36 Roadmap ............................................................................................................................40 Potential Disrupters ............................................................................................................40 Cost Drivers .......................................................................................................................42 Pure Copper Metallization on Ceramic..................................................................................44 Plated and Bonded Copper (PBC) .....................................................................................45 Direct Bond Copper (DBC) ...............................................................................................46 Current Applications ..........................................................................................................47 Needs Assessment ..............................................................................................................48 Current Status.....................................................................................................................49 RoHS and Ceramic Technologies ..........................................................................................49 Lead Free Thick Film Materials ........................................................................................51 Critical Infrastructure Issues and Paradigm Shifts .................................................................55 Substrates ...........................................................................................................................55 Thick Film ..........................................................................................................................56 High and Low Temperature Co-fired Ceramic Technology ..............................................56 Thin Films and Thin Film Multi-layers .............................................................................57 Pure Copper Metallization on Ceramic..............................................................................57 Emerging Material Systems ...................................................................................................58 Aluminum Nitride Substrates for Thermal Management ..................................................58 Thick Film AlN Interconnection Materials........................................................................60 RF and High Frequency Applications................................................................................61 Ceramic Technology Needs ...................................................................................................62 Technology Drivers ...........................................................................................................62 Business Issues .......................................................................................................................64 Global Growth Forecasts: 2010- 2016 ...............................................................................65

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INTERCONNECT SUBSTRATES – CERAMIC CRYSTALLINE PVC AND MODULE TECHNOLOGY

Gaps and Showstoppers .........................................................................................................67 Crystalline Photovoltaic Technology.........................................................................................69 Introduction ............................................................................................................................69 Market Drivers .......................................................................................................................69 PV Technology ..................................................................................................................69 New Crystalline Silicon Cell Concepts..............................................................................72 Back Contact Module Assembly Technology ...................................................................74 Thin Film PV cells .............................................................................................................75 Crystalline PV Cell metallization ......................................................................................76 Pastes..................................................................................................................................76 Market Outlook (crystalline silicon PV modules) .................................................................76 Recommendations ..................................................................................................................77 Priorities and Alternative Technologies.............................................................................77 IMAPS-CICMT Cooperation ............................................................................................78 Appendix 1: IBC Cell and Back Contact Module Assembly ...............................................79 Appendix 2: Design Trends & Tools ....................................................................................85 Glossary .................................................................................................................................89 Relevant Electronics Manufacturing Education Programs ....................................................90 Contributors ...........................................................................................................................91 Tables Table 1: Principal Substrate Material Options ..........................................................................8 Table 2: Comparative Typical Material Properties, Ceramic Substrates ..................................9 Table 3: Price Comparisons of Bare Ceramic Substrates .........................................................9 Table 4: Co-Fired Capability Comparisons ............................................................................19 Table 5: Co-fired Technology Capabilities.............................................................................19 Table 6: Feature – Benefit comparison ...................................................................................34 Table 7: Process comparisons .................................................................................................35 Table 8: 2D versus 3D benefits ...............................................................................................36 Table 9: Roadmap of Quantified Key Attributes for LTCC as ceramic example ..................40 Table 10: Thin Film Technology Capability ..........................................................................43 Table 11: Thin Film Multilayer Roadmap ..............................................................................44 Table 12: Trends for power requirements ...............................................................................45 Table 13: Bonded Coppers Needs Assessment .......................................................................48 Table 14: Metallization Process Evaluations ..........................................................................49 Table 15: Critical Issues and Paradigm Shifts for Bare Substrates ........................................55 Table 16: Critical Issues and Paradigm Shifts for Thick Film and LTCC Technology .........56 Table 17: General and Specific Needs for Copper Metalized Ceramic ..................................57 Table 18: Applications for Aluminum Nitride ceramics substrates........................................59 Table 19: Thick Film Materials for Aluminum Nitride ..........................................................60 Table 20: Properties of AlN, BeO and Al2O3 ........................................................................61 Table 21: Range of Properties of Materials used in LTCC and HTCC ..................................64 Table 22: The RF and Microwave market forecast ................................................................66 Table 23: LTCC components and modules market growth ....................................................67 Table 24: Gaps and Potential Showstoppers Related to iNEMI Product Sectors ...................68 Table 25: ZEBRA cell results .................................................................................................82

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INTERCONNECT SUBSTRATES – CERAMIC CRYSTALLINE PVC AND MODULE TECHNOLOGY

Table 26: ZEBRA module results ...........................................................................................84 Figures Figure 1: Passives integration over time ...................................................................................5 Figure 2: Ceramic Substrate interconnection technologies ......................................................7 Figure 3: The multilayer co-fired ceramic process .................................................................13 Figure 4: Cross-section of a ceramic ball grid array (CBGA) package ..................................14 Figure 5: Cross-section of a ceramic pin grid array (CPGA) package ...................................14 Figure 6: Cavity structures in zero shrink LTCC....................................................................16 Figure 7: Automotive module made from a zero shrink LTCC process.................................16 Figure 8: Loss Comparisons of LTCC vs Organic Substrates ................................................17 Figure 9: Low Loss LTCC to 40GHz and beyond ..................................................................18 Figure 10: LTCC Dielectric Constant and Loss Tangent to 95 GHz ......................................18 Figure 11: BFEM = Barry Front End Module (courtesy of Barry Industries) ......................20 Figure 12: Microwave MPA (Medium Power Amp), LNA (Low Noise Amp), and Mixer module at 20 GHz (courtesy of IMST GmbH) .....................................................20 Figure 13: SiGe fractional-N synthesizer at 20 GHz in hermetic sealed housing with Kovar frame for satellite applications (LGA interconnects) (courtesy of IMST GmbH)21 Figure 14: 3-D Image of the Chebychev filter ........................................................................24 Figure 15: Measurement results vs. Simulation results ..........................................................24 Figure 16: Electric field at pass band frequency.....................................................................25 Figure 17: Electric field at Stop band frequency ....................................................................25 Figure 18: Plastic BGA (Chip on LTCC Board) ....................................................................26 Figure 19: Cutaway model of a 30 GHz 8x8 elements TX antenna array ..............................26 Figure 20: 3D model of a 30 GHz 8x8 elements TX antenna array .......................................27 Figure 21: A typical design cycle for multilayer circuits with embedded passives................29 Figure 22: LTCC Antenna array with near and far field simulation.......................................31 Figure 23: A master sintering curve........................................................................................33 Figure 24: Process cost for different processes.......................................................................35 Figure 25: System in Package, SiP .........................................................................................37 Figure 26: Strip Line, line losses in various LTCC materials.................................................38 Figure 27: 50 Ohm Microstrip Attenuation for Various Interconnection Technologies ........47 Figure 28: Lead free HMC interconnect .................................................................................50 Figure 29: Test board with 100% lead and Cd free conductors, dielectrics, over glazes and solders ...................................................................................................................52 Figure 30: Adhesion comparisons ..........................................................................................52 Figure 31: Thermal shock stability .........................................................................................53 Figure 32: Pb free Ag/Pt conductor adhesion .........................................................................53 Figure 33: Aluminum wire bonding .......................................................................................54 Figure 34: Pb free aluminum wire testing...............................................................................54 Figure 35: Chip power requirements over time ......................................................................58 Figure 36: (Top right) an LTCC cooler prior to assembly (Bottom Left) a partially assembled cooler without the laser diode .............................................................63 Figure 37: LTCC Component and Module End-Use Market Segment ..................................66 Figure 38: Cell concepts and their limitations (source SolarPraxis Ag / PV Magazine) ........71 Figure 39: The poly-silicon PV cell production process (courtesy of Sierratherm) ...............71

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Figure 40: Figure 41: Figure 42: Figure 43:

Figure 44: Figure 45: Figure 46: Figure 47: Figure 48: Figure 49: Figure 50: Figure 51: Figure 52: Figure 53:

INTERCONNECT SUBSTRATES – CERAMIC CRYSTALLINE PVC AND MODULE TECHNOLOGY

PV cell concepts (Courtesy ISC Konstanz)...........................................................73 ZEBRA IBC cell by ISC Konstanz .......................................................................73 Crystalline PV cell and module production projection .........................................74 Back Contact module assembly with back contact sheet and electrically conductive adhesive. Top is an assembly with MWT cells and bottom is an assembly with IBC cells. ......................................................................................75 The ZEBRA IBC Cell ...........................................................................................79 Base resistivity 'as is' vs pitch of the back side 'fingers' ........................................80 Efficiency of the ZEBRA IBC cell dependent on minority carrier lifetime .........80 ZEBRA cell manufacturing process steps .............................................................81 ZEBRA Cell layout ...............................................................................................82 ZEBRA IBC cell ...................................................................................................82 Cross section of the ZEBRA IBC module.............................................................83 IBC modules with ZEBRA cells and the module assembly with a back contact sheet and electrically conductive adhesive ...........................................................83 Plastic ball grid array (Chip on LTCC board) (Courtesy of IMST GmbH) ..........87 LTCC Antenna array with near and far field animation (Courtesy of IMST GmbH) ..................................................................................................................88

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PASSIVE COMPONENTS Contents Passive Components ................................................................................................................... 1 1 Executive Summary .................................................................................................... 1 2 Introduction ................................................................................................................. 3 2.1 Definition of Passive Configurations ........................................................................ 3 2.2 Types of Passive Components .................................................................................. 5 3 Situation Analysis ....................................................................................................... 8 3.1 World Market Sizes For Passive Components.......................................................... 8 3.2 Business Issues.......................................................................................................... 9 4 Roadmap of Quantified Key Attribute Needs ........................................................... 11 4.1 Cross-Cutting Issues ............................................................................................... 11 4.2 Requirements for Portable Products ....................................................................... 19 4.3 Requirements for Office / Large Business Systems ............................................... 20 4.4 Requirements for Netcom Products ........................................................................ 26 4.5 Requirements for Automotive Products.................................................................. 27 4.6 Requirements for Medical Products........................................................................ 31 4.7 Requirements for System In Package (SiP) ............................................................ 32 4.8 Assembly of Small Footprint Components ............................................................. 33 4.9 Design, Procurement, and Manufacturing Channels .............................................. 34 5 Technology Trends and Needs.................................................................................. 35 5.1 Capacitors ............................................................................................................... 35 5.2 Resistors .................................................................................................................. 64 5.3 Magnetics ................................................................................................................ 67 5.4 Circuit Protection Components ............................................................................... 68 5.5 Integrated Passives .................................................................................................. 69 6 Gaps and Showstoppers ............................................................................................ 69 7 Recommendations on Potential Alternative Technologies ....................................... 73 7.1 Embedded Passives ................................................................................................. 73 7.2 Embedded Capacitors ............................................................................................. 74 7.3 Embedded Resistors ................................................................................................ 80 7.4 Embedded Magnetics .............................................................................................. 80 8 Contributors .............................................................................................................. 82 9 Glossary .................................................................................................................... 82 10 Terminology.............................................................................................................. 86 11 Bibliography ............................................................................................................. 87 Tables Table 4-1: Base wave solder process exceptions ...................................................................14 Table 4-2: Ceramic capacitors for wave-soldering ................................................................15 Table 4-3: Base reflow solder process exceptions .................................................................15 Table 4-4: Projections from the hand-held/portable emulator ...............................................19 Table 4-5: Projections from the office systems emulator ......................................................20 Table 4-6: Projections from the NETCOM systems emulator...............................................26

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Table 4-7: Projections from the automotive sector emulator.................................................27 Table 4-8: Automotive grade parts and standard parts differences .......................................29 Table 4-9: Projections from the medical sector emulator ......................................................31 Table 4-10: Projected needs for SiP emulator .......................................................................33 Table 5-1: Film dielectric properties. .....................................................................................58 Table 5-2: Resistor technologies ............................................................................................65 Figures Figure 3-1: Figure 3-2: Figure 4-1: Figure 5-1: Figure 5-2: Figure 5-3: Figure 5-4: Figure 5-5: Figure 5-6:

World passives market in $billions ......................................................................9 World capacitor market in $billions.....................................................................9 Height requirements for on-package capacitors .................................................22 Screw Terminal Types .......................................................................................39 Facedown construction to improve volumetric efficiency .................................41 Volumetric efficiency for small case standard vs. facedown. ............................41 Advancement in MLCC VE over time...............................................................45 EIA 1206 case size X5R/X7R dielectric parameters .........................................46 Voltage and temperature effect on capacitance of a typical class 2 High VE MLCC (1.3 micrometer dielectric thickness) ................................48 Figure 5-7: Active volume as a function of case size for MLCCs........................................49 Figure 5-8: PME C0G vs. BME C0G; maximum capacitance offering ...............................51 Figure 5-9: Schematic of a flex crack ...................................................................................52 Figure 5-10: Fail open ceramic configuration ......................................................................52 Figure 5-11: Flex or strain limits based on projected failure rates (KEMET Corp.) ............54 Figure 5-12: Reduction of ESL in ceramic capacitors ..........................................................55 Figure 5-13: Limitations of top-side decoupling ..................................................................55 Figure 5-14: Low-ESL power feed-through capacitor..........................................................56 Figure 5-15: 3-D full interposer (FI) high-speed decoupling array (FID-pack) ...................56 Figure 5-16: Q vs. f comparison of mica and porcelain........................................................64 Figure 5-17: Thin film integrated passives offer precision and more material choices ........69 Figure 6-1: Gap analysis of component size .........................................................................70 Figure 6-2: Product conformance/being environmentally green/meet lead-free soldering profiles...........................................................................................71 Figure 7-1: Materials options for embedded capacitors........................................................75 Figure 7-2: Size requirements to achieve various capacitance values using embeddable materials ....................................................................................76 Figure 7-3: Comparison of materials for embedded capacitors ............................................77 Figure 7-4: Distribution of capacitance values in a portable device .....................................78

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RF COMPONENTS AND SUBSYSTEMS Contents RF Components and Subsystems .................................................................................................1 Executive Summary .................................................................................................................1 Introduction ..............................................................................................................................2 Scope ....................................................................................................................................2 Salient Technology Changes Since the 2011 Chapter .........................................................3 Comparison to Previous Forecasts ...........................................................................................4 Potential Disruptive Technologies ...........................................................................................6 RF Technology Situation .........................................................................................................7 RF Integrated Circuit Design and Fabrication Trends .............................................................8 RF SiPs (Radio Frequency System In a Package) .................................................................11 Introduction ........................................................................................................................11 Major Gaps in SiP development ........................................................................................12 RF PAs, FEMs and Integrated PA / Transceivers ..................................................................15 Introduction ........................................................................................................................15 Gaps and Technologies ......................................................................................................17 RF Antennas ...........................................................................................................................17 Introduction ........................................................................................................................17 Special Applications ..........................................................................................................19 Special Technologies .........................................................................................................22 Multi-Antenna Systems .....................................................................................................23 RF Test .................................................................................................................................24 Introduction ........................................................................................................................24 RF ATE and Workcell Testing ..........................................................................................24 RF Subsystem / Product Test .............................................................................................26 Mobile Handset Manufacturing Test .................................................................................27 Future Challenges in RF Test ............................................................................................29 Probe requirements ............................................................................................................31 References ..............................................................................................................................32 Appendix 1 Wireless Network Technologies ........................................................................33 Appendix 2: U.S. Regulatory Considerations .......................................................................38 Appendix 3: System in a Package Description .....................................................................41 Appendix 4: Overview of RF testing .....................................................................................44 Introduction ........................................................................................................................44 User Equipment (UE) R&D Test .......................................................................................50 Mobile Handset Design Validation and Conformance Test ..............................................51 Glossary .................................................................................................................................52 Contributors ...........................................................................................................................54

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Tables Table 1: Table 2: Table 3: Table 4:

RF COMPONENTS AND SUBSYSTEMS

Performance Targets for RF ICs ................................................................................. 9 Antenna Types and Technical Trade-offs ................................................................. 21 Forecasted trends in RF Test2. .................................................................................. 25 Comparisons of Popular WLAN Data Communications Standards ......................... 35

Figures Figure 1: Figure 2: Figure 3: Figure 4: Figure 5:

An example of a modern Wireless Communications Test Set ................................ 28 An example of a testing time sequnece developed using testing software. ............. 28 Wireless PAN, LAN, and MAN/RAN formats ....................................................... 33 Visual diagram showing a wireless metropolitan area network (WMAN) ............. 34 An example of integrating discrete components and two ICs into a single, System in Package (SiP), for a typical cellular phone, receiver section. ........... 41 Figure 6: An example of a modern, vector network analyzer ................................................. 46 Figure 7: An example of an ECal module............................................................................... 46 Figure 8: A screenshot from commonly used analysis software. ........................................... 47 Figure 9: An example of a vector spectrum analyzer. ............................................................ 47 Figure 10: An example of a vector signal generator. .............................................................. 47 Figure 11: A screenshot from software commonly used to measure the ACPR of a DUT. ... 48 Figure 12: A block diagram of the closed loop test. ............................................................... 49 Figure 13: An example of a conformance test system. ........................................................... 51

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MICROELECTROMECHANICAL SYSTEMS (MEMS) Contents Microelectromechanical Systems (MEMS) .................................................................................1 Executive Summary .................................................................................................................1 Introduction ..............................................................................................................................3 What are MEMS? ................................................................................................................3 History..................................................................................................................................4 Roadmapping MEMS Technology ..........................................................................................6 Situation Analysis ....................................................................................................................7 Markets ................................................................................................................................9 Manufacturers ......................................................................................................................9 Applications .......................................................................................................................10 Automotive ........................................................................................................................10 Consumer Portable .............................................................................................................12 Consumer Wearable ...........................................................................................................17 Integration Path ..................................................................................................................19 Roadmap of Quantified Key Attributes .................................................................................22 Inertial Sensors...................................................................................................................22 Accelerometers ................................................................................................................. 22 Gyroscopes ........................................................................................................................ 22 Inertial Measurement Units............................................................................................... 23 Microphones ..................................................................................................................... 23 RF MEMS ......................................................................................................................... 24 Resonators ......................................................................................................................... 24 Switches ............................................................................................................................ 24 Varactors ........................................................................................................................... 25 Technology Needs .................................................................................................................25 Modeling and Design .........................................................................................................25 Fabrication .........................................................................................................................27 Standardizing Process Modules .........................................................................................30 Assembly and Packaging ...................................................................................................31 Packaging as differentiator for MEMS product performance............................................32 Pressing Needs and Possible Solutions for MEMS Packaging Technology......................34 Testing................................................................................................................................36 MEMS Critical Issues ............................................................................................................38 Co-Design Environments ...................................................................................................38 Standardizing Process Modules .........................................................................................38 MEMS Packaging and Integration .....................................................................................38 Standard Testing Protocols ................................................................................................39 Accelerated reliability test methods ...................................................................................39 MEMS Technology Working Group .....................................................................................40 References ..............................................................................................................................40

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MICROELECTROMECHANICAL SYSTEMS (MEMS)

Figures Figure 1: Block diagram of the functionality of a MEMS device (left), and a MEMS microphone by Akustica as an example of one (right)........................................ 3 Figure 2: The resonant gate transistor reported by Nathanson et. al. in 1964 (left) and the polysilicon cantilever reported by Howe and Muller in 1993 (right).................. 4 Figure 3: Analog Devices ADXL 50 from 1993 (left), fabricated by surface micromachining, and pillars in silicon for a micro fluidic device fabricated at IMEC using the deep reactive ion etch Bosch process (right). ...................................................... 5 Figure 4: The digital light projector (DLP) by Texas Instruments used in video projectors (left) and the Knowles MEMS microphone used in smart phones and tablet computers (right). ................................................................................................ 6 Figure 5: The MEMS market shown by application area. ....................................................... 8 Figure 6: The MEMS market is forecasted to grow at 13% CAGR over the next several years. ................................................................................................................... 8 Figure 7: Top manufacturers of MEMS devices by sales and type. From Yole Development, “What are the Market, Business and Industrial Issues that have to be Solved to Allow a Higher Growth of the MEMS Business?,” Semicon West, July 2014. . 9 Figure 8: Illustration of the many inertial sensors used in a fully featured car today............ 10 Figure 9: Illustration depicting how consumer portable devices free us from the desk, allowing us to interact with the world while still remaining connected with each other and the Internet. ........................................................................................ 12 Figure 10: Nintendo's annual revenue from 1991 to 2008 (top left) revealing the explosive impact of Wii sales. ........................................................................................... 13 Figure 11: Sensors trends for handsets, adapted from a presentation by Len Sheynblat, Vice President of Technology, Qualcomm CDMS Technologies, at MIG’s M2M 2012 Workshop, Pittsburg PA. .......................................................................... 14 Figure 12: Example of the continuous incremental improvement of MEMS devices. The MEMS microphone chip size from Akustica saw an 80% reduction between 2006 and 2011. .................................................................................................. 16 Figure 13: Distribution of worried-wells with market size estimation. ................................. 18 Figure 14: Sensors trends for “Wearable” technologies. ....................................................... 19 Figure 15: The concept of sensor Integration Path illustrated by the evolution of the inertial measurement unit. ............................................................................................. 21 Figure 16: The diverging MEMS market driven by performance and cost. .......................... 31 Figure 17: How a package can differentiate MEMS product performance. .......................... 33 Figure 18: MEMS package selection driven by cost versus performance. ............................ 34 Figure 19: 3D integration: (a) illustration of heterogeneous integration using various bonding methods and TSV, (b) STMicroelectronics 3-axis accelerometer (LIS331DLH), the ASIC is stacked on top of the MEMS die. .................................................. 36

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OPTOELECTRONICS Contents Optoelectronics ............................................................................................................................1 Executive Summary .................................................................................................................1 Introduction ............................................................................................................................12 Situation (Infrastructure) Analysis .........................................................................................16 The Copper to Optical Transition ......................................................................................16 Telecommunications Situation...........................................................................................18 The Telecommunications Sector vs Data Communications Sector ...................................25 FTTX Situation ..................................................................................................................26 Local Area Network (LAN) Situation ...............................................................................30 Plastic Optical Fiber (POF) (Automotive) Situation .........................................................41 Active Optical Cable Situation ..........................................................................................46 Backplane Situation ...........................................................................................................50 On-Card Data Transmission Situation ...............................................................................56 In-to and Out-of Package Data Transmission Situation ....................................................59 On-Chip Optical Interconnect Situation ............................................................................63 BER (Bit Error Rates) ........................................................................................................64 Financial and Business Status ............................................................................................65 Status Summary .................................................................................................................72 Manufacturing Issues .............................................................................................................73 Manufacturing Equipment Availability .............................................................................73 Data Communication Manufacturing Process Issues ........................................................74 Designing for Manufacturing.............................................................................................78 Quality Requirements ........................................................................................................79 Environmental Issues .........................................................................................................80 Supply Chain Issues ...........................................................................................................80 Roadmap of Quantified Key Attribute Needs ........................................................................81 Critical (Infrastructure) Issues ...............................................................................................97 Technology Needs ...............................................................................................................100 Prioritized Research & Development Needs .......................................................................101 Gaps and Show Stoppers .....................................................................................................103 Recommendations on Potential Alternative Technologies ..................................................104 Black Swans2 .......................................................................................................................105 Appendix A ..........................................................................................................................106 Graphical Roadmap Representation ................................................................................106 Appendix B ..........................................................................................................................108 Electrons vs Photons for Data Communication ...............................................................108 Appendix C ..........................................................................................................................110 Contributors/Acknowledgments ......................................................................................110 Appendix D ..........................................................................................................................111 Glossary ...........................................................................................................................111 Appendix E ..........................................................................................................................115 iNEMI Technology Roadmaps

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OPTOELECTRONICS

Optoelectronic Internet Links to Items of Interest. ..........................................................115 Tables Table 1: Summary of Critical issues, Gaps and Show Stoppers, and Technical Needs ...........11 Table 2: Market and Application Mapping: Product status matrix ..........................................15 Table 3: Optical Data Transmission Technology Improvements and Potential Future Improvements .....................................................................24 Table 4: FTTH Deployment in 2014 ........................................................................................30 Table 5: Distinct LAN Applications .........................................................................................32 Table 6: MSA Standards Overview ..........................................................................................37 Table 7: Examples of short range, commercial POF based systems. .......................................44 Table 8: Some of the Active Optical Cable Suppliers ..............................................................47 Table 9: Recent Financial Results of Some Industry Firms .....................................................65 Table 10: Manufacturing Processes for Optical Products with Those Unique to Optical Products Highlighted .........................................75 Table 11: Communications – Key Attribute Needs ..................................................................83 Table 12: FTTX (X = curb, house, desk, antenna, etc.) – Key Attribute Needs ......................84 Table 13: LANs -- Key Attribute Needs ...................................................................................86 Table 14: Plastic Optical Fiber (POF) (Automotive) – Key Attribute Needs ..........................88 Table 15: Active Optical Cables (AOC) – Key Attribute Needs ..............................................89 Table 16: Backplane – Key Attribute Needs ............................................................................91 Table 17: On-card – Key Attribute Needs ................................................................................93 Table 18: In-to and Out-of Package – Key Attribute Needs.....................................................94 Table 19: On-Chip – Key Attribute Needs ...............................................................................96 Table 20: Critical Infrastructure Issues .....................................................................................97 Table 21: Technology Needs ..................................................................................................100 Table 22: Prioritized Research & Development Needs ..........................................................101 Table 23: Gaps and Show Stoppers ........................................................................................103 Table 24: Potential Alternate Technologies ............................................................................104 Table 25: Black Swans ...........................................................................................................105 Figures Figure 1: Data rates vs distance with media as a parameter illustrating optical dominance when distance x data rate exceeds 100 Gb/s meters. ...............1 Figure 2: The Impact of High Performance Computing on the Demand for Optical Links .......4 Figure 3: The Interior of Several Data Centers showing the Interconnect Density, Some Optical, Some Electrical. .............................................................................4 Figure 4: Conventional BGA Packaged Device Mounted on an Optical Interposer to Enable Optical IO to Interface to a Circuit Board Containing Waveguides ..........7 Figure 5: Traffic by data content vs. year, both actual and forecast. ........................................12 iNEMI Technology Roadmaps

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Figure 6: The overview Graphic of the Optical Electronic TWG Roadmap ............................14 Figure 7: Generic Data Transmission Environment .................................................................16 Figure 8: Application of Copper vs. Optical by Distance and Bandwidth ...............................17 Figure 9: Telecommunication System Capacity and Traffic over 5 decades. ..........................19 Figure 10: Evolution of Telecommunications (>10Km) OE Structure ....................................20 Figure 11: The Shannon Limit and Current Results of Data Transmission Rates Utilizing Optical Technologies .........................................................................22 Figure 12: Illustrating the Loss in db/Km vs Wavelength of Single Mode Fiber and showing the “C” band in which the Erbium Doped Fiber Amplifier provides amplification. ....................................................................................23 Figure 13: An Upstream CATV architecture that modulates light sent from the Central office and returns it with information impressed on it.` ......................28 Figure 14: An FTTX architecture that transmits many wavelengths and then sends one wavelength to a customer or, more often, sends each of the wavelengths to multiple customers. .......................................................................................29 Figure 15: From Cisco, Gary Nicholl. The 25%/yr anticipated growth of Data Center Traffic is not as great as the ~40% growth rate of internet traffic. .............................31 Figure 16: Interior of Several Data Centers Illustrating the Density of Interconnections, some Electrical and some Optical ...................................................................32 Figure 17: Some Discrete Multi Tone Modulation Method Characteristics ............................34 Figure 18: Some Advantages of Discrete Multi Tone Technology for 100G ..........................35 Figure 19: Illustrates the developing split between Single Mode and MultimodeTechnologies that is somewhat driven by the transition from 10 Gbs to 100 Gbs data rates 36 Figure 20: Evolution of Common Transceivers and Transponders. .........................................39 Figure 21: The Evolution of Transceiver Size to Increase Panel Data Density .......................40 Figure 22: Improvements in Density (Gb/s/inch), Power Use and Bandwidth Density for Various Form Factors in The Order of Their Introduction .......................41 Figure 23: Low Cost Connectorless Package for POF, From POF Trade Organization ........43 Figure 24: POF Market Chart from IGI. “Plastic Optical Fiber Market & Technology Assessment Study – 2011” ...............................................................................45 Figure 25: Worldwide POF Market Chart from IGI “Plastic Optical Fiber Market & Technology Assessment Study – 2011” .......................................................46 Figure 26: Typical Active Optical Cable ..................................................................................48 Figure 27: A series of Charts with Data on Active Optical Cables. From IGI ........................49 Figure 28: An Optical Backplane Concept with Both Electrical and Optical connectors between the cards and backplane containing a flex circuit with optical media .51 Figure 29: “FlexPlane” Optical Backplane by Molex ..............................................................51 Figure 30: Reflex Photonics Implementation of Optical Interconnect to supplement an Electrical Backplane ...................................................................................53 Figure 31: A Drawer from the IBM Blue Waters Super Computer..........................................53 Figure 32: The BlueWaters Rack Structure that holds Drawers. ..............................................54 iNEMI Technology Roadmaps

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Figure 33: The Expanded Beam Connector Concept ...............................................................54 Figure 34: Proposed reconfigurable optical interconnect architecture with broadcasting capability Santa Fe 2013. Wang, et al. ..........................................................55 Figure 35: A Basic Method to Implement On-Card Optical IO. ..............................................56 Figure 36: Typical Optical Engines intended for On-Card Applications .................................57 Figure 37: On-card Optical Interface Approach by Ultracom from a paper at the Santa Fe 2013 IEEE Optical Interconnect Conference ........................59 Figure 38: 8-Inch eAOC for Next Generation Ultrabooks, Tablets and Smartphones. ............58 Figure 39: Hyper Dense Optical Module from Reflex Photonics. ...........................................59 Figure 40: Optical On-Card using In-to & Out-of Package Technology .................................60 Figure 41: Two Concepts and Some Details to Interface Optical Connections to Packages ....60 Figure 42: Two Approaches for Waveguide Coupling .............................................................61 Figure 43: Graphic illustrating the optical interposer concept. ................................................62 Figure 44: One Current View of the Place for Optical vs Copper On-Chip Interconnect ........64 Figure 45: Transceiver Shipments in units/year .......................................................................66 Figure 46: Illustrates the size of the component vendors and the overall market for Transceivers. ................................................................................................67 Figure 47: Overview of the Optical Industry Financial Situation Highlighting the Limited R&D Investment Available. ...........................................................68 Figure 48: Transceiver Revenue by Major Market Segments Historically and as Forecast by Light Counting ..................................................................69 Figure 49: FTTX Transceiver Revenue historically and forecast by Standard from Light Counting ....................................................................69 Figure 50: The decline in transceiver prices over the decade ending in 2009. .........................70 Figure 51: Annual AOC Revenue .............................................................................................70 Figure 52: Silicon Photonics Application Revenue ..................................................................72 Figure 53: A Planar Lightwave Circuit, A Passive Device that Requires No Power ...............76 Figure 54: A Photonic Integrated Circuit Built with a Technology That Is Compatible with CMOS Fabrication .....................................................................................77 Figure 55: Typical Manufacturing Process for an Optical Product ..........................................78 Figure 56: Subu Subrahmanyan LAN Summary 6-14-2014 ....................................................87

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MASS DATA STORAGE

Optical Data Storage ........................................................................................................................... 89

Situation Analysis ....................................................................................................................................................... 89 Business/Technical Issues ...................................................................................................................................... 96 Roadmap of Quantified Key Attribute Needs ............................................................................................... 117 Critical Issues ............................................................................................................................................................. 129 Technology Needs: Research, Development, Implementation.............................................................. 129 Gaps and Showstoppers ........................................................................................................................................ 135 Recommendations on Priorities & Alternative Technologies ............................................................... 136

Contributors ........................................................................................................................................ 139 Glossary ................................................................................................................................................ 140

List of Tables Table 1. ITRS NAND Flash Chip Roadmap .........................................................................................12 Table 2. Current status of MRAM commercialization. ..................................................................35 Table 3. A snapshot of the IP situation in 2012 ...............................................................................38 Table 4. Nonvolatile Magnetic Random Access Memory Roadmap .........................................39 Table 5. Summary of MRAM specific tool manufacturers ...........................................................42 Table 6. Attributes of Different Memory Technologies ................................................................48 Table 7. Magnetic Mass Data Storage Technology Roadmap - HDD ........................................61 Table 8. Magnetic Mass Data Storage Technology Roadmap - Tape .......................................83 Table 9. Historical Examples of Optical Disc Storage Products .................................................91 Table 10. ASTI UDO Optical Drive Specifications for 60 GB Optical Discs (source: ASTI) .................................................................................................................. 102 Table 11. Projected Optical Media Sales 2011-2014 .................................................................. 116 Table 12. Roadmap for Key Optical Disc Products – Next Generation (2015-2024) ..... 118 Table 13. Optical Storage Component/Subsystem Attributes ................................................. 127 List of Figures Figure 1: Relative Cost per Gigabyte of Flash & Other Storage Media versus Time .............. 3 Figure 2: Typical Computer Memory/Storage Hierarchy................................................................ 3 Figure 3: Cross-Section of planar floating-gate flash memory cell . ........................................... 6 Figure 4: Toshiba's BiCS Vertical NAND Structure............................................................................. 7 Figure 5: Node-to-Node Transition Cost Broken Down by Tool Type........................................ 8 Figure 6: NAND Cost Accelerated Declines from MLC and Wafer Migration .........................15 Figure 7: How Alternative Technologies may Surpass Flash Costs ...........................................17 Figure 8: Timeline of magnetic storage technology and magnetic device research accomplishments. ........................................................20 Figure 9: Schematic drawing of an MTJ storage element ..............................................................22 Figure 10: General design and operation of a FIMS MRAM device ............................................23 Figure 11: FIMS astroid write selection method, and error rate plot. ......................................24 Figure 12: Toggle writing bit selection method and error rate plot .........................................25 Figure 13: General design and operation of a STT MRAM cell. ...................................................26 iNEMI Technology Roadmaps

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Figure 14: STT writing technique ...........................................................................................................27 Figure 15: Schematic of the principle of spin transport in a magnetic tunnel junction ....28 Figure 16A: STT writing technique for programming a low resistance state........................29 Figure 16B: STT writing technique for programming a high resistance state ......................29 Figure 17: Schematic representation of ST MRAM ..........................................................................31 Figure 18: Write current as a function of cell size ............................................................................31 Figure 19A: FIMS-TAS concept. ...............................................................................................................32 Figure 19B: STT-TAS concept. ..................................................................................................................32 Figure 21: Cross-section of an MRAM device .....................................................................................40 Figure 22: Some representative processing tools ............................................................................41 Figure 23: MRAM compared to other mass storage technologies..............................................43 Figure 24: Cost breakdown of mass storage technologies. ...........................................................44 Figure 25: Radar Chart of Memory Technical Attributes ..............................................................49 Figure 26: Cell Area vs Lithography node ..........................................................................................50 Figure 27: Shipped Disk Drive Volumes vs. Time, by Application ............................................52 Figure 28: Storage Average Retail Price vs. Time ............................................................................53 Figure 29: Hard Disk Drive Head Manufacturing Process.............................................................54 Figure 30: Typical Hard Disk Drive with Key Components Identified .....................................56 Figure 31: Close-up of Actuator Positioning a Head Suspension (HGA) on a Disk ..............56 Figure 32: Relationship of Head and Disk Including "Flying Height" of the "Slider" ..........57 Figure 33: Basic Structure of a TMR Head Transducer ..................................................................59 Figure 34: Example of a Piezo-Based Head Micro Actuator .........................................................60 Figure 35: Schematic Illustration of Magnetic Recording ............................................................60 Figure 36: Disk Drive Access Density Is Decreasing ........................................................................66 Figure 37: Comparison of Magnetic Head & Patterned Media Feature Requirements .....66 Figure 38: Shingled Recording and Head Magnetics ......................................................................67 Figure 39: HGST a Western Digital Company - 6TB Sealed Helium Drive .............................68 Figure 40: Curie Point Writing Using Head Assisted Magnetic Recording .............................70 Figure 41: Sketch of basic proposed HAMR recording ...................................................................71 Figure 42: HAMR head with the laser source built into the head...............................................71 Figure 43: Media surface is a two dimensional environment. ....................................................71 Figure 44: Dual reader TDMR concept.................................................................................................72 Figure 45: Comparison of conventional magnetic media to patterned media ......................73 Figure 46: SEM images of self-assembled patterned magnetic recording media ................74 Figure 47: Block Co-polymer Self Assembly .......................................................................................75 Figure 48: Nano-imprinting Working Copy Production Process ................................................76 Figure 49: Patterned Media Defects .......................................................................................................77 Figure 50: Possible Patterned Media Production Pprocess..........................................................77 Figure 51: LTO Tape Drive........................................................................................................................80 Figure 52: Oracle Tape Cartridge Libraries ........................................................................................81 Figure 53: Graphical Illustration of LTO Tape Storage Roadmap .............................................84 Figure 54: Tape Areal Density Demonstrations, Productions and Roadmap ........................84 Figure 55: Tape Data Rate Roadmap .....................................................................................................85 Figure 56: Differences Between Linear And Helical Scan Tape ..................................................87 Figure 57: Illustration of The Content of Aftermarket External BD Subsystems .................93 Figure 58: Summary of The Key Features of The Shipping BD Drive Subsystems ..............93 iNEMI Technology Roadmaps

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Figure 59: Sony Optical Disc Archive That Provides Up to 1.5 TB of Near-line Storage....94 Figure 60: Summary of The Key Features of ArXtor Automated BD Libraries ....................94 Figure 61: Illustration of Concept and Possible Digital Information Flow .............................96 Figure 62: Alliance UDO Archive Media ...............................................................................................99 Figure 63: Alliance UDO Archive Media ............................................................................................ 100 Figure 64: UDO2 60 GB Optical Disc Cartridge ............................................................................... 101 Figure 65: ASTI UDO2 Optical Drives ................................................................................................. 101 Figure 66: Decrease In Laser Wavelength And Spot Size ........................................................... 103 Figure 67: Summary of BD Characteristics And Parameters .................................................... 104 Figure 68: Summary of BD Format Specifications......................................................................... 105 Figure 69: BD Physical Format Comparison .................................................................................... 105 Figure 70: BD Physical Format Comparison .................................................................................... 106 Figure 71: BD Unformatted Capacity Comparison ........................................................................ 106 Figure 72: Packaging of the Panasonic BD-R XL 100 GB disc.................................................... 107 Figure 73: Panasonic BD-R XL 100 GB disc player ........................................................................ 107 Figure 74: InPhase Technologies Tapestry HDS ............................................................................ 111 Figure 75: InPhase Technologies Tapestry HDS alpha-prototype drive and disc............. 111 Figure 76: An Estimate of BD Market Penetration ........................................................................ 116 Figure 77: Technical Achievements for Optical Data Storage (1982-2014). ...................... 119 Figure 78: A Roadmap for BD Optical Storage ................................................................................ 120 Figure 79: Optical Data Storage – Past and Future ....................................................................... 120 Figure 80:. The Panasonic+Sony 300GB Archival Optical Disc (source: Panasonic). ...... 121 Figure 81: The Panasonic+Sony Archival Optical Disc Capacity Roadmap (Sony)........... 121 Figure 82: General Assumptions for BD Model for Panasonic+Sony Archival ODS ......... 123 Figure 83: Technology Design Parameters for the Panasonic+Sony Archiving ODS ....... 123 Figure 84: Technology Parameters for the Panasonic+Sony Archiving ODS (Part1) ...... 124 Figure 85: Technology Parameters for the Panasonic+Sony Archiving ODS (Part2) ...... 124 Figure 86: The Quality of Marks and Spaces Achieved by EB Mastering.............................. 125 Figure 87: Eye Pattern Quality for a 6-Layer, Single Surface BD ............................................. 125 Figure 88: Example of an OPU ............................................................................................................... 126 Figure 89: TDK Exhibition of a 16-layer, 1 TB capacity BD-type Optical Disc.................... 131 Figure 90: Quad-layer BD Discs for Advanced Cinema Applications ..................................... 131 Figure 91-a: Background on the Photonic Sieve ............................................................................ 135 Figure 91-b: The Spot Forming Capability of the Photonic Sieve ............................................ 135 Figure 92: Details of a Proposed Plasmonic Optical Head ......................................................... 136 Figure 93: Summary of Conclusions Regarding the Evolution of Optical Data Storage in the 2015-2025 Time Frame .............................................................................. 138 Figure 94: Summary of Recommendations Regarding the Evolution of Optical Data Storage in the 2015-2025 Time Frame ................................................... 138

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ELECTRONIC CONNECTORS Contents Electronic Connectors ..............................................................................................................................1 Executive Summary .............................................................................................................................1 Roadmap Findings: ..........................................................................................................................2 Situation Analysis ............................................................................................................................3 Roadmap of Quantified Key Attribute Needs ......................................................................................4 Key Parameters ................................................................................................................................5 Manufacturing Infrastructure ...........................................................................................................8 Technical Barriers, Gaps, Showstoppers .........................................................................................8 2015-25 Connector Technology Trends ..............................................................................................9 Business Cycle Impact on Technology: .............................................................................................10 Core and New Technologies of the Connector Industry:...............................................................11 Electronic Industry Technology Shifts Impacting Connector Technology Portfolios: .................11 Connectors Evolutionary Design: ..................................................................................................12 Market Assessment ............................................................................................................................13 OEM Customer Trends: .................................................................................................................13 Market Dynamics Impacting 2015-25 Connector Roadmap .........................................................15 Manufacturing Equipment & Processes.........................................................................................16 Environmental Technology............................................................................................................17 Connector Applications .................................................................................................................19 Critical Infrastructure Issues ..............................................................................................................20 Developed World Manufacturing ..................................................................................................20 Regional Connector Markets (mfg. and consumption) .................................................................21 General Roadmap Discussion ............................................................................................................26 Key areas for Development ...........................................................................................................26 Gaps and Showstoppers .....................................................................................................................27 Product Roadmaps .............................................................................................................................28 Photovoltaic Systems and Interconnect ........................................................................................28 Wire to Board Connectors (WTB) .................................................................................................31 Automotive Batteries and Connectors ...........................................................................................36 USB Connectors.............................................................................................................................38 Fiber Optic Connectors ..................................................................................................................43 Cable Assemblies ...........................................................................................................................51 Communication Cable Roadmap ...................................................................................................52 Video Interface Connectors ...........................................................................................................54 Thunderbolt/Lightpeak Connectors ...............................................................................................55 Test & Burn-In Sockets .................................................................................................................56 LED Lighting Connector Products ................................................................................................61 Recommendations ..............................................................................................................................63 Connector Industry Research & Development Needs ...................................................................63 Longer Term Needs .......................................................................................................................65 Some Possible Industry/Gov’t Connector Roadmap Recommendations: .....................................65 Source of Input for this and/or Previous Roadmaps: .........................................................................67 iNEMI Technology Roadmaps

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CONNECTORS

Tables Table 1: Connector Levels of Packaging ................................................................................................2 Table 2: Key Attributes 2014-2025 ........................................................................................................5 Table 3: Summary by Major Connector Type ........................................................................................8 Table 4: Connector Usage Trends by Market Segment, 2015- 25 Source: Bishop & Assoc. .................9 Table 5: Forbes List of Top 20 R&D Spenders $ x Bn Source Forbes Magazine (data: 2011) ........15 Table 6: Tonnes of Recycled Electrical/Electronic Equipment 2006-14 .............................................18 Table 7: US Shipments of Electrical & Electronic Products 1995-2023 ..............................................24 Table 8: World Wide Solar Module Forecast 2008-23 .........................................................................30 Table 9: Miniature Wire-to-Board (WTB) Connectors – 2000-2025 Roadmap...................................32 Table 10: Processor Sockets 2000-2925 Roadmap PCs, Laptops, Servers, Mainframes, Scientific Computers (Applications where CPUs need to be socketed) ............................................................34 Table 11: Dual In-Line Memory Sockets (JEDEC DIMM) 2000-2025 ...............................................35 Table 12: World Unit % and Volume Passenger Cars 2008-2025 .......................................................36 Table 13: Related Battery Pack Volumes (Mn) ....................................................................................36 Table 14: Battery Applications, Connector Projections 2000-2025 .....................................................38 Table 15: Universal Serial Bus (USB) Connectors...............................................................................39 Table 16: PCB Connectors (PCI Express example) .............................................................................40 Table 17: Generic PCB Connectors ......................................................................................................41 Table 18: 2mm Backplane Connectors (Compact PCI Example) ........................................................42 Table 19: High Performance Backplane Connectors (Various OEM/Licensed Designs) ....................42 Table 20: FO Deployment: ...................................................................................................................43 Table 21: Fiber Optic Connector Roadmap ..........................................................................................45 Table 22: Some Types of Cables ..........................................................................................................52 Table 23: TIA Part 568 Cat 5-7 Cable ..................................................................................................52 Table 24: Industrial Ethernet Cable ......................................................................................................53 Table 25: Plenum/Riser Cable – Commercial Buildings ......................................................................53 Table 26: Video Interface Connectors ..................................................................................................55 Table 27: Thunderbolt/Lightpeak – Display Port Connector ...............................................................56 Table 28: Test & Burn-In Sockets ........................................................................................................60 Table 29: Test-in-Tray Automation ......................................................................................................61 Table 30: LED Lighting Penetration 2000-2030 ..................................................................................62

Figures Figure 1: Molex Optical Cables: Connector.com ..................................................................................46 Figure 2: Molex Illustration: Optical Card Cage for Storage App ........................................................46

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LARGE AREA FLEXIBLE ELECTRONICS Contents Large Area, Flexible Electronics .................................................................................................1 Executive Summary .................................................................................................................1 Business Issues.....................................................................................................................1 Introduction ..............................................................................................................................5 Scope ....................................................................................................................................5 Large Area, Flexible Electronics Systems ...........................................................................5 Product Emulators for iNEMI 2013 Roadmap ....................................................................6 Situation Analysis ....................................................................................................................9 Business Issues.....................................................................................................................9 Functional Inks...................................................................................................................10 Substrates ...........................................................................................................................16 Packaging/Barriers .............................................................................................................31 Manufacturing Platforms and Processing Equipment........................................................34 Testing and Quality Control Tools ....................................................................................54 Large Area Flexible Electronics ........................................................................................57 Reliability...........................................................................................................................68 Standards ............................................................................................................................69 Roadmap of Quantified Key Attribute Needs, Gaps, and Showstoppers ..............................71 Introduction ........................................................................................................................71 Functional Inks: Technology Requirements ......................................................................71 Substrates: Technology Requirements ...............................................................................73 Packaging/Barriers: Technology Requirements ................................................................79 Manufacturing Platforms and Processing Equipment: Technology Requirements ...........80 In-line Characterization Tools: Technology Requirements ...............................................97 Off-line Characterization Tools: Technology Requirements .............................................98 Devices and Circuits: Technology Requirements ..............................................................99 Flexible Electronics: Technology Requirements .............................................................104 Reliability: Technology Requirements ............................................................................114 Standards: Technology Requirements .............................................................................115 System Level Definitions For Large Area Flexible Electronics ..........................................116 European Union Government Sponsored Activities ............................................................119 Activities in Japan ................................................................................................................123 Critical Infrastructure Issues and Paradigm Shifts ...............................................................125 Technology Needs and Potential Solutions .........................................................................126 Concluding Remarks and Recommendations on Priorities .................................................133 Glossary ...............................................................................................................................135 Contributors .........................................................................................................................136 References ............................................................................................................................138

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Tables Table 1 Total available market (TAM) for several opportunities in 2020 ................................ 5 Table 2 iNEMI Product Emulators and potential application opportunities ............................. 6 Table 3 Potential display-based applications ............................................................................ 7 Table 4 Non-display applications.............................................................................................. 7 Table 5 RF product components ............................................................................................... 8 Table 6 Devices necessary for display backplane, sensors, photovoltaics, and RF modules ... 9 Table 7 Classes of functional inks and critical attributes ........................................................ 11 Table 8 Ink requirements and restrictions for various printing methods ................................ 12 Table 9 Families of solution processable organic and inorganic semiconducting inks .......... 14 Table 10 Substrate requirements depending on application .................................................... 17 Table 11 Key polyester film attributes .................................................................................... 18 Table 12 Common formats of polyimide based substrates ..................................................... 20 Table 13 Typical properties of Kapton® polyimide film ....................................................... 21 Table 14 Key polyimide film attributes .................................................................................. 21 Table 15 Common formats of polyimide based substrates ..................................................... 23 Table 16 Materials properties for glass substrates .................................................................. 27 Table 17 Comparative typical material properties, ceramic substrates................................... 29 Table 18 Co-fired capability comparisons .............................................................................. 30 Table 19 Barrier properties of flexible packaging material .................................................... 32 Table 20 Common software for microelectroinics, graphic arts, and printing ....................... 35 Table 21 Properties of R2R printing platforms with master ................................................... 39 Table 22 Properties of R2R printing platforms without master .............................................. 40 Table 23 Thin Film Deposition Technologies ........................................................................ 49 Table 24 In-line characterization ............................................................................................ 55 Table 25 Off-line characterization tools ................................................................................. 57 Table 26 Common reliability tests and parameters ................................................................. 68 Table 27 Example relaibility tests for large area flexible electronics ..................................... 69 Table 28 Published and potential areas for future standards .................................................. 70 Table 29 Several critical technology requirements for functional inks .................................. 71 Table 30 Roadmap of key technology needs for functional inks ............................................ 72 Table 31 Roadmap of key technology needs for polyimide film substrates ........................... 74 Table 32 Roadmap of key technology needs for metal substrates .......................................... 75 Table 33 Roadmap of key technology needs for paper substrates .......................................... 76 Table 34 Roadmap of key technology needs for nonwovens substrates ................................. 77 Table 35 Roadmap of key technology needs for glass substrates ........................................... 77 Table 36 Roadmap of key technology needs for ceramic substrates ...................................... 79 Table 37 Roadmap of key technology needs for pre-press ..................................................... 81 Table 38 Roadmap of key technology needs for printing workflow ...................................... 84 Table 39 Electronic device/circuit dimensional requirements for various applications ......... 85 Table 40 Parameters of thick film and thin film technologies ................................................ 85 Table 41 Roadmap for printing technology key technology needs ........................................ 87 Table 42 Technology needs and potential solutions for printing platforms............................ 88 Table 43 Key technology needs for thin film deposition ........................................................ 90 Table 44 Roadmap of key technology needs for solution processed blanket deposition methods ............................................................................................................... 91

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Table 45 Table 46 Table 47 Table 48 Table 49 Table 50 Table 51 Table 52 Table 53 Table 54 Table 55 Table 56 Table 57

Key technology needs for imaging system .............................................................. 94 Key technology needs for handler system ............................................................... 95 Key technology needs for inspection system ........................................................... 96 Example wet processing equipment parameters ...................................................... 96 Example principal parameters for R2R process ....................................................... 97 Key figures of merit for passive devices ................................................................ 101 Key figures of merit for active devices .................................................................. 102 Application dependent transistor performance for displays .................................. 103 Application dependent transistor performance for a RF applications.................... 103 Roadmap of key technology needs for large area flexible displays ....................... 106 Roadmap of key technology needs for photovoltaics ............................................ 109 Roadmap of key technology needs for sensors ...................................................... 113 Reliability tests and testing parameters for two printed electronics based products ............................................................................................................. 115 Table 58 EU funded projects.................................................................................................. 120 Table 59 Projects underway in Japan .................................................................................... 123 Table 60 Paradigm shifts for the technology ........................................................................ 126 Table 61 Technology needs and potential solutions for functional inks ............................... 127 Table 62 Technology needs and potential solutions for packaging/barriers ......................... 128 Table 63 Technology needs and potential solutions for printing platforms........................... 129 Table 64 Technology needs and potential solutions for in-line characterization tools ......... 130 Table 65 Technology needs and potential solutions for flexible electronics ........................ 131 Table 66 Technology needs and potential solutions for standards ....................................... 132 Table 67 Technology needs and potential solutions for devices, circuits, and components . 133

Figures Figure 1 PET and PEN properties ........................................................................................... 19 Figure 2 Requirement of water vapor transmission rate (WVTR) and oxygen transmission rate (OTR). ........................................................................ 31 Figure 3 Barrier performance lower detection limits for OTR and WVTR ............................. 33 Figure 4 Potential flow processes for circuit layout data conversion to printing manufacturing ..................................................................................................... 36 Figure 5 Conventional (contact) and non-Impact printing technologies ................................ 38 Figure 6 Schematic of gravure printing unit ........................................................................... 41 Figure 7 Schematic of flexography printing unit .................................................................... 42 Figure 8 Schematic of offset litho printing unit ...................................................................... 44 Figure 9 Schematic of screen printing unit ............................................................................. 45 Figure 10 Drop-on-Demand schematic diagrams ................................................................... 46 Figure 11 Active compensation architecture........................................................................... 51 Figure 12 Transistors produced by SAIL (left) and a 10x10 active matrix pixel backplane (right) ............................................ 52 Figure 13 Roll-to-Roll defect inspection system .................................................................... 53 Figure 14 Flexible displays for E-media applications (Left: Plastic Logic, Right: Polymer Vision) .............................................................................................................................. 58

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Figure 15 An intelligent medicine blister for monitoring patient medicine dosage compliance ........................................................................................... 67 Figure 16 Workflow for electroluminescence signage with 4/C image .................................. 82 Figure 17 Workflow for inkjet photovoltaic process ............................................................... 82 Figure 18 Cause and effect diagram for R2R photolithography ............................................. 95 Figure 19 SMT System hierarchy .......................................................................................... 117 Figure 20 SMT versus PET hierarchy.................................................................................... 119

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SOLID STATE ILLUMINATION Contents Solid State Illumination ...............................................................................................................1 Executive Summary .................................................................................................................1 Prioritized Gaps and Recommendations ..................................................................................7 Introduction ..............................................................................................................................8 Scope ....................................................................................................................................8 Solid State Illumination .....................................................................................................10 Product Emulators for iNEMI 2013 Roadmap ..................................................................24 Situation Analysis ..................................................................................................................25 Business Issues...................................................................................................................25 Product Level 0 Assembly–Materials ................................................................................25 Product Level 1 Assembly .................................................................................................36 Product Level 2 Assembly .................................................................................................51 Test and Measurement .......................................................................................................55 Devices and Circuits ..........................................................................................................59 Reliability...........................................................................................................................61 Standards ............................................................................................................................63 Thermal Management ........................................................................................................68 Roadmap of Quantified Key Attribute Needs, Gaps, and Showstoppers ..............................73 Introduction ........................................................................................................................73 Product Level 0 Assembly-Materials.................................................................................73 Product Level 1 Assembly .................................................................................................79 Product Level 2 Assembly .................................................................................................82 Test and Measurement .......................................................................................................83 Devices and Circuits ..........................................................................................................84 Reliability: Technology Requirements ..............................................................................85 Standards: Technology Requirements ...............................................................................86 Thermal Management Requirements .................................................................................87 Critical Infrastructure Issues and Paradigm Shifts .................................................................89 Solid State Illumination Electronics Technology Needs and Potential Solutions .................93 Concluding Remarks and Recommendations on Priorities ...................................................96 Glossary .................................................................................................................................98 Contributors .........................................................................................................................100 References ............................................................................................................................100

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SOLID STATE ILLUMINATION

Tables Table 1: Prioritized Gaps and Recommendations .......................................................................... 7 Table 2: LED and OLED Assembly Hierarchy ............................................................................ 16 Table 3: iNEMI Product Emulators, TWG, and Potential SSI Opportunities .............................. 24 Table 4: Efficiencies & Efficacies Phosphor Converted LED CCT 3000K and CRI 85 .......... 32 Table 5: of Color Mixed LED - CCT 3000K & CRI 85 .............................................................. 33 Table 6: Summary of Hybrid LED with - CCT 3000K & CRI 85 .............................................. 33 Table 7: Progress Projections for OLED Commercial Panel Efficacy (LM/W) .......................... 35 Table 8: OLED Panel and Luminaire Milestones ......................................................................... 36 Table 9: Classification of LED Power Levels .............................................................................. 37 Table 10: Materials Choices for Die and Package Attach ............................................................ 40 Table 11: Materials choices for thermal attach ............................................................................. 41 Table 12: Roadmap of Key Technology needs for Silicone materials ......................................... 44 Table 13: Roadmap of Key Technology needs for Electrical Connections .................................. 54 Table 14: In-line Testing for Materials Quality ............................................................................ 59 Table 15: Example reliability tests for SSI Products .................................................................... 62 Table 16: SSI Standards Bodies .................................................................................................... 64 Table 17: SSI Standards and Publications .................................................................................... 65 Table 18: New definitions for SSI components ............................................................................ 66 Table 19: Commercially Available LED Phosphor Materials and their Characteristics .............. 79 Table 20: LED Level 1 Assembly Challenges .............................................................................. 81 Table 21: Cross Cutting TWG Issues with PEGS ........................................................................ 95

Figures Figure 1: Energy Savings Potential by SSL in General Illumination Applications ................. 10 Figure 2: 2025 Projected Savings from Solid State Lighting [18] ........................................... 11 Figure 3: LED Efficacy compared to other light sources in 2013 (US DOE) ......................... 12 Figure 4: 2010 version of Haitz's Law (US DOE) ................................................................... 12 Figure 5: Installed base of lighting sockets by technology, Strategies Unlimited, 2014 ......... 14 Figure 6: Packaged LED revenue, by application, Yole, Status of the LED Industry, May, 2014. ........................................................................................................ 15 Figure 7: LED Assembly levels as part of a retrofit bulb ........................................................ 16 Figure 8: Cross section through an LED .................................................................................. 17 Figure 9: Level 1 Assembly Schematic ................................................................................... 17 Figure 10: Left: The TSMC TRx-module (left) is equipped with Phosphor-on-Die (PoD) LEDs . Right: Warm White SMD LED Packages on a Board ............. 18 Figure 11: Left: Philips bulb. Middle: Cree 6 inch LR6 downlight module . Right: Lighting Sciences Group Luminaire ...................................................... 18 Figure 12: Seoul Semiconductor 17W ACrich 2 module ........................................................ 19 Figure 13: Acuity OLED Panel (Kindred™) ........................................................................... 20 Figure 14: : Lighting Efficiency Comparison, OMS Lighting 2014 ........................................ 26 Figure 15: Common LED Chip Structures............................................................................... 28 Figure 16: State-of-the-art thin-film flip-chip (TFFC) InGaN-GaN light-emitting diode ....... 29 Figure 17: EQE of different wavelength LEDs........................................................................ 30 Figure 18: LED White Light Creation Options ....................................................................... 31

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Figure 19: Assembly structure for SSL OLED-based devices................................................. 34 Figure 20: Classification of LED Package Types Associated with Common Applications .... 37 Figure 21: Typical LED Package ............................................................................................. 38 Figure 22: Discrete LED package assembly ............................................................................ 39 Figure 23: Flip-Chip LED package .......................................................................................... 39 Figure 24: Points of Silicone usage in an LED device ............................................................ 42 Figure 25: Key Research Areas in Phosphor Technology ....................................................... 45 Figure 26: (a) Broad Emission Phosphors on Alumina Substrate for Warm White LEDs and (b) Phosphor Excitation and Emission Spectra ........................................ 47 Figure 27: Phosphor converted LEDs (top) fabricated with Glareless, YAG:Ce3+ and RGB phosphor mix along with their respective emission color distributions . 48 Figure 28: Cross-section of Phillips Lumiblade OLED device ............................................... 50 Figure 29: Cross-section of GE OLED printing process ......................................................... 50 Figure 30: Edge-lit panel dimensions ...................................................................................... 53 Figure 31: Cree Filament Tower inside conventional “bulb” .................................................. 58 Figure 32: Philips Slim Style LED bulb .................................................................................. 58 Figure 33: LED driver schemes and dimmable driver ICs (Ref. www.national.com)............. 60 Figure 34: Light module and sockets developed by Ideal, Molex and TE .............................. 71 Figure 35: The Ledtronics DEC-A19-5X1W DécorLED Series uses a unique grill-style ...... 72 Figure 36: Transmission electron microscope images showing multiple dislocations in conventional GaN material (left), and dislocationfree GaN-on-GaN crystals (right). ................................................................... 74 Figure 37: System reliability is a function of component reliability ....................................... 86 Figure 38: Philips M16 retrofit LED lamp with plastic heatsink using DSM’s....................... 87 Figure 39: White Light Integrated LED Lamp Price Projection .............................................. 90

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ENERGY STORAGE SYSTEMS Contents Energy Storage Systems ..............................................................................................................1 Executive Summary ................................................................................................................ 1 Introduction ......................................................................................................................... 3 Structure of Report .............................................................................................................. 4 Lexicon of Key Terms ........................................................................................................ 4 Why Storage? ...................................................................................................................... 6 Market Summary ................................................................................................................ 7 Is There Enough Lithium? ................................................................................................ 10 Technology and Material Section References .................................................................. 12 Consumer Electronics Battery Storage and Power Conversion Roadmap ................................13 Landscape: Situation Analysis and Trends ........................................................................... 13 Attributes and Drivers ....................................................................................................... 13 Government Policy and Legislation.................................................................................. 24 Roadmap of Key Attributes .............................................................................................. 27 Critical Infrastructure Issues ............................................................................................. 27 Gaps and Business/Technology and Policy Needs ........................................................... 30 Recommendations ............................................................................................................. 30 Consumer Section References .......................................................................................... 31 Automotive Battery Storage and Power Conversion Roadmap.................................................32 Landscape: Situation Analysis and Trends .......................................................................... 32 Drivers for Adoption of Battery Technology and Penetration of Hybrids, EVs and PHEVs ................................................. 32 Government Policy ........................................................................................................... 33 Technology and Economics Status ................................................................................... 34 Manufacturing and Deployment Infrastructure ................................................................ 42 EV Charger Categories ..................................................................................................... 46 Lithium Ion battery Roadmap ............................................................................................... 46 Critical Infrastructure Issues ................................................................................................. 48 Gaps and Business/Technology and Policy Needs ............................................................... 48 Market Development and Policy ...................................................................................... 48 Technology Development ................................................................................................. 49 Cost Modeling................................................................................................................... 49 Supply Chain Infrastructure and Post-Purchase Infrastructure ......................................... 49 Grid Infrastructure Development ...................................................................................... 50 Recommendations to iNEMI ............................................................................................ 50 Power Conversion Cost Reduction and Efficiency Improvement in Energy Storage Systems .52 Overview of Emerging Energy Storage Technologies For Grid Applications ..................... 53 Introduction ....................................................................................................................... 53 Technical benefits of energy storage ................................................................................ 56 Information on recent U.S. initiatives ............................................................................... 60 Advanced Research Projects Agency – Energy (ARPA-E).................................................. 64 iNEMI Technology Roadmaps

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Non-Federal Support for Energy Storage ......................................................................... 68 Opportunities for EES integration in deregulated electricity markets .............................. 69 Recent Changes that facilitate integrating Energy Storage in electricity markets ............ 71 International opportunities ................................................................................................ 77 Reuse, Recycle and Disposal of Battery Systems for Energy Storage and Power Conversion .79 Roadmap of Key Attributes .......................................................................................................83 Gaps and Business/Technology Needs and Policy Needs .................................................... 84 Recommendations to iNEMI ................................................................................................ 86 References for Energy Storage Systems ....................................................................................87 Contributors ...............................................................................................................................88 Appendix 1-A: Summary of EES Technologies ........................................................................88 Tables Table 1: Comparison of Large Scale Battery Systems ............................................................ 7 Table 2: Comparison of Flow Battery Technologies ............................................................... 9 Table 3: In the United States, the batteries are categorized on the basis of equivalent lithium content (ELC). If they exceed a maximum ELC, they are classified by the U.S. Department of Transportation as hazardous materials. .............................................................................................................. 24 Table 4: Summary of laws in the United States and Europe that require the collection and recycling of used phones and batteries. Source: Inform Inc., Brooklyn, New York. .......................................................... 26 Table 5: Roadmap of key attributes for consumer applications. ....................................... 27 Table 6: Types of Energy Conversion Technology ............................................................... 35 Table 7: Cost-Performance Comparison of Battery Technologies ........................................ 36 Table 8: Key Automotive Battery Chemistries, Suppliers and OEMs ................................. 43 Table 9: Key Attribute Roadmap – USABC EV 2020 Battery Goals ................................... 47 Table 10: Key Economic and Performance Attributes for Grid-Connected Storage Applications ...................................................... 83

Figures Figure 1: Illustration of power peak shaving using energy storage for the electric grid. Source: Regenesys Ltd. .................................................... 9 Figure 2: Abundance (atom fraction) of the chemical elements in Earth’s upper continental crust as a function of atomic number. ................................... 11 Figure 3: Energy storage potential based on annual production of the elements (6). ............ 12 Figure 4a: Worldwide demand for rechargeable batteries................................................ 14 Figure 4b: World Markets Potential for Lithium Ion in Consumer Electronics and all Segments (Navigant 2013) .................................................................. 14 Figure 5: The capacity of a lithium-ion battery fades with each charge and discharge cycle. ............................................................................ 15 Figure 6: Pricing in US dollars per Wh for 18650, prismatic and polymer cells............... 17 iNEMI Technology Roadmaps

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Figure 7: (a) A typical 18650 lithium-ion cell; (b) a typical polymer lithium-ion cell. ... 18 Figure 8: Gain of polymer form factor over cylendrical and prismatic for mobile electronics ...................................................................................... 19 Figure 9: Market share of the major lithium ion battery manufacturers. ........................ 20 Figure 10: Future Potential Replacements for Lithium Ion Batteries............................... 21 Figure 11: Simplified block diagram of a battery management unit in a notebook, tablet or smartphone. ........................................................... 22 Figure 12: Lithium Ion Battery investments 2009-2015, $10-12B Worldwide, > 50GWh in 2015. (8) .................................................................................... 28 Figure 13: McKinsey estimates that the cost of batteries can drop by 2025 to $160 per kWh making electric vehicles competitive. This could drive a rapid adoption of electric vehicles and accelerate the demand of lithium ion batteries. ................................................................................ 29 Figure 14: Electric Powertrain Matrix (Roland Berger 2012). ............................................. 36 Figure 15: Silicon leads Anode Capacity............................................................................... 39 Figure 16: Component Costs in a Full Hybrid Architecture (1,4) ............................................ 42 Figure 17: Automotive Battery Cost Estimates, *100,000 packs/year (10) ......................... 44 Figure 18: High Energy Li Ion Battery Estimated Cost Comparison (1,6) .............................. 45 Figure 19: Lithium Ion Battery Roadmap (10) ...................................................................... 47 Figure 20: Rates Power of US Grid Connected Energy Storage (Includes Announced Projects) ...................................................................... 54 Figure 21: Discharge Time at Rated Power vs. System Power Ratings ................................ 56 Figure 22: Regime & Scale of Storage Applications ............................................................. 59 Figure 23: Geographical location of DOE sponsored “ARRA” Storage Demonstration Projects ...................................................................... 62 Figure 24: International Energy Storage Projects .................................................................. 64 Figure 25: Average Ancillary Services Prices -- 2012-2013 ............................................... 71

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POWER CONVERSION SYSTEMS Contents Power Conversion Systems .........................................................................................................1 Executive Summary ................................................................................................................ 1 Introduction ............................................................................................................................. 3 Structure of Report .............................................................................................................. 4 Lexicon of Key Terms ........................................................................................................ 4 Why Switching Power Conversion? ................................................................................... 7 Market Summary ................................................................................................................ 8 Foreword on Application Overviews ................................................................................ 10 Automotive Segment ............................................................................................................ 11 Communications Segment .................................................................................................... 17 Computing Segment.............................................................................................................. 22 Consumer Segment ............................................................................................................... 26 Industrial Segment ................................................................................................................ 29 Lighting Segment .................................................................................................................. 32 Medical Segment .................................................................................................................. 38 Military Segment .................................................................................................................. 42 Technology Trends ............................................................................................................... 49 DC Power Distribution ......................................................................................................... 51 DC Power for Interiors and Occupied Space .................................................................... 58 DC Power Distribution Summary ..................................................................................... 61 Digital Power Management .................................................................................................. 63 Nanotechnology .................................................................................................................... 68 Power Supply on a Chip (PwrSoC) ...................................................................................... 71 Introduction ....................................................................................................................... 71 Wireless Power Transfer ....................................................................................................... 75 Government Policy and Legislation...................................................................................... 80 Roadmap of Key Attributes .................................................................................................. 81 Critical Infrastructure Issues ............................................................................................. 81 Gaps and Business/Technology and Policy Needs ........................................................... 82 Recommendations ................................................................................................................. 82 Recommendations to iNEMI ............................................................................................ 82 Tables Table 1: Status and approximate technical targets for power electronics in electric and hybrid electric vehicles .................................................................................. 12 Table 2: Systematic Approach – Energy Savings Opportunities ........................................... 58 Table 3: International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC) Safety Data that IEC 23E WG 2 Analyzed; 380 Vdc distributed at ±190 Vdc is as safe as ac voltages from 208Vac up to 250 Vac........................................................... 62 Table 4: Roadmap of key attributes for Power Converter applications. ........................... 81 iNEMI Technology Roadmaps

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Figures Figure 1: Industry Power Density Roadmap for Power Supply and Motor Drives ................. 8 Figure 2: Application-dependent IGBT device design is required to address various systems in a modern hybrid or electric vehicle .................................... 13 Figure 3: Top: Comparison of automotive diode switching behavior vs. an EPI-based diode . Bottom: recovery waveforms of new power silicon devices .............................. 15 Figure 4: Automotive sub-system building blocks for HEV solutions .............................. 16 Figure 5: Consumer Trends ................................................................................................... 27 Figure 6: . Pictogram of Macrogrid to Microgrid Interconnection ......................................... 54 Figure 7: Block Diagram of a Typical Dc Microgrid ............................................................ 55 Figure 8: Key Dc Microgrid Building Application Segments ............................................... 56 Figure 9: Net-Zero Energy Design Strategies ..................................................................... 57 Figure 10: Pictogram of Dc Standard Implemented in the Building Interior ........................ 59 Figure 11: Lighting & Controls on Solar-Powered Dc Microgrid at UCSD ......................... 59 Figure 12: Enernet, the power network .............................................................................. 63 Figure 13: Charging surface, tightly coupled single coil .................................................... 77 Figure 14: Charging surface, flexibly coupled..................................................................... 77 Figure 15: Wireless charging solutions in the 100s of kHz range generate approximately 10x the amount of induced power in metallic foreign objects as that of a 6.78 MHz system ............................................................ 78

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