(Illegal) Immigration: Global and National Context and Prospects for Reform

Presented by

Judith Gans Immigration Policy Project Director

Topics † Global and national context † Illegal Immigration „ Economic impacts „ Fiscal Costs and contributions „ National security

† Policy debates and prospects for reform

Immigration: A World-Wide Phenomenon † Cause and consequence of global economic integration † UN estimates 190 to 200 million immigrants … ≈ 3.3% of the world's population † Global remittances estimated at $150 billion per year Source: Papademetriou, Demetrios G., “The Global Struggle with Illegal Immigration: No End in Sight”, Washington DC: Migration Policy Institute, September 1, 2005.

16.0

35,000

14.0

30,000

12.0

25,000

10.0

20,000

8.0

15,000

6.0

10,000

4.0

5,000

2.0

0

0.0

Percent

40,000

18 50 18 60 18 70 18 80 18 90 19 00 19 10 19 20 19 30 19 40 19 50 19 60 19 70 19 80 19 90 20 00 20 04

Number (000s)

Foreign-Born Population

Number

% of Total Population

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Categories of Foreign Born

Naturalized Citizens 11.3 million (32%)

(2004)

Legal Permanent Residents 10.4 million (29%)

Refugee Arrivals 2.5 million (7%) Temporary Legal Residents 1.2 million (3%)

* Estimates based on 2004 Current Population Survey.

Unauthorized Immigrants 10.3 million (29%)

Published in Passel, Jeffrey, “Unauthorized Migrants: Numbers and Characteristics”, Pew Hispanic Center, Washington, DC, June 2005. www.pewhispanic.org

U.S. Laws Limit Economic Migration † Architecture of family reunification † Economic migration laws seek to: „ Minimize competition with U.S. workers „ Provide for scarce labor

Demographic Realities † Native-born population growing slowly and ageing † 20% of U.S. births occur to foreign-born mothers † Directly and indirectly, immigration accounts for ≈ 60% of U.S. population growth † Between 1990-2004, immigrants accounted for over 50% of growth in the civilian labor force

Demographic Realities Example: Between 1996 and 2000 (Economic boom) „ U.S. economy generated 14.3 million new jobs „ U.S. population increased by 12.3 million people including immigration

Strong ‘pull’ factor

Political Challenge ‘Immigration’ increasingly equated with ‘Illegal Immigration’

Causes of Illegal Immigration… 1. Global economic integration 2. Inadequate provision for legal economic immigration 3. Failure to sanction employers for hiring unauthorized immigrants due to: i. No reliable means for verifying employment eligibility ii. Limited funding of interior enforcement; iii. Limited political will due to U.S. labor needs

Most Unauthorized Immigrants From Latin America (Share of estimated 10.3 unauthorized immigrants)

Europe & Canada 0.6 million (6%)

Africa & Other 0.4 million (4%)

Asia 1 million (10%)

Other Latin America 2.5 million (24%)

Mexico 5.9 million (56%)

* Estimates based on 2004 Current Population Survey. Published in Passel, Jeffrey, “Unauthorized Migrants: Numbers and Characteristics”, Pew Hispanic Center, Washington, DC, June 2005. www.pewhispanic.org

Illegal Immigration Matters… - To immigrants themselves - To the United States

Immigration Status Matters to Employment 40% 35% 33%

35% 30%

27%

25% 20%

17%

15%

16% 13%

15%

10%

10%

10%

8%

6%

6% 3%

5%

1%

0% Service Occupations

Construction & Extractive

Production, Repair & Installation

Native-born Workers

Sales & Adm inistration

Managem ent, Transportation & Moving Business & Industries Professional

Farm ing

Unauthorized Workers

Estimates based on 2004 Current Population Survey. Published in Passel, Jeffrey, “Unauthorized Migrants: Numbers and Characteristics”, Pew Hispanic Center, Washington, DC, June 2005. www.pewhispanic.org

Immigration Status Matters to Income (Incomes, 2003 Family Size 2004)

$47,700 $47,800

$27,400 2.34

$24,300

2.29

$20,400

1.96

$12,000

Average Family Income Native-born Families

Average Family Size

Income Per Person

Legal Immigrant Families

Unauthorized Families

Estimates based on 2004 Current Population Survey. Published in Passel, Jeffrey, “Unauthorized Migrants: Numbers and Characteristics”, Pew Hispanic Center, Washington, DC, June 2005. www.pewhispanic.org

Immigration Status Matters to Educational Attainment of Children (Share of each group’s 18-24 year old population, 2004)

70%

80%

73%

70% 60%

49%

48%

50% 40% 21%

30% 20%

11%

10% 0%

High School Dropouts

Native-Born

High School Graduates with Some College

Legal Immigrants

Unauthorized Immigrants

Estimates based on 2004 Current Population Survey. Published in Passel, Jeffrey, “Unauthorized Migrants: Numbers and Characteristics”, Pew Hispanic Center, Washington, DC, June 2005. www.pewhispanic.org

Immigration Status Matters to Net Fiscal Impacts † Illegal immigrants tend to be low-skilled † Low-skilled immigrants: „ Earn relatively low wages „ Contribute relatively little in taxes

† Net fiscal impacts depend both on: „ Size and mix of immigrant population „ Generosity of state public services

† Illegal status compounds impacts

Immigration Status Matters to National Security † Failure to control borders: „ „ „ „

Undermines sovereignty & rule of law Creates national security risks Undermines formulation of coherent policy Makes the border a dangerous place “It is difficult to open the front door without closing the back door.”

Enforcement Has Focused on the Border Spending by Type of Enforcement: 1985 - 2002 3,000,000

2,842,000

Dollars (000s)

2,500,000

2,000,000

1,633,000 1,500,000

1,000,000

700,000 458,000

500,000

192,000 0

109,000 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

Border Control

Interior Investigations

Detention & Removal/Intelligence

Source: Migration Policy Institute analysis of data from US Department of Justice Immigration and Naturalization Service, Budget Requests to Congress, 1985-2002; and Budget of the United States Government, Appendix, 1985-2003.

Enforcement Challenge † Ambivalence about enforcement „ Focus at border while interior enforcement is minimal „ No reliable system for verifying immigration

† Ambivalence about controlling immigration – control modulated through „ Limits to visible categories „ Adjustments to numbers of temporary visas „ Adjustments to enforcement intensity

Politics of Reform † System understood to be broken † Political stalemate: „ “Enforcement before reform” vs. “Reform in order to enforce”

† What to do with 11 million unauthorized immigrants? „ “Earned regularization” vs. “Amnesty”

Temporary Worker Program † One mechanism for economic immigration † Debates over existing unauthorized population † Limited provision for permanent economic immigration

‘Importing’ Temporary Labor is Complicated † Workers vs. citizens † Facilitates: „ Limiting rights „ Social divisions „ Inherent power imbalance

Politics of Immigration Debates

Immigrant Admission Should Be Immigrant Rights Should Be Expansive

Expanded or Maintained

Cosmopolitans Edward Kennedy (D-MA)

Restrictive

Free-Market Expansionists Jeff Flake (R-AZ)

Restricted

Nationalist Egalitarians Diane Feinstein (D-CA)

Classic Exclusionists Tom Tancredo (R-CO)

*From Tichenor, Daniel, Dividing Lines: The Politics of Immigration Control in America, Princeton University Press, Princeton University, 2002.

Major Themes and Conclusions † Today’s immigration reflects a global economy † Economic and fiscal impacts are complex † Current laws reflects complex political cross-currents and interests † Reform will be difficult and political voice is uneven