China/HK Pork Imports MAY 2014 Prepared Exclusively for Clients of Global AgriTrends Current Situation:
4
Chinese pig farming losses are mounting. Not only are live pig prices still moving lower, Chinese corn prices moved higher in April (to 2,255 RMB/ton, US$9.21/bu). Live pig prices averaged 10.8 RMB/kg in late April, the lowest level in almost 4 years (since July 2010). These weak prices are likely near seasonal lows, but may remain at these levels through May. By our calculations, the pig-to-corn ratio fell to 4.8 in late April. That level is in the "red" category suggesting more government intervention in the markets. While the Chinese government committed to a round of pork intervention purchases last month, no other purchases have been announced. The market for fresh pork is obvioulsy abundantly-supplied currently. However, the imported frozen pork market is somewhat differentiated from the domestic markets; March saw frozen pork imports above the levels of a year ago. Frozen imported pork is filling niche processed products and will likely continue near historical levels.
4
In a rare occurrence, the falling Chinese pig/pork prices are running below U.S. pig/pork prices for the first time in our dataset's history (5 years). U.S. carcass prices are now $5/cwt over the Chinese price; in mid-December Chinese carcass price eqivalents were $88/cwt (!) above U.S. levels. If we add freight+duties+VAT taxes to U.S. pork, U.S. carcasses would land in China at US$168/cwt while Chinese carcass equivalents are at US$109/cwt. Economics would say the pork will stop flowing, but keep in mind that this spread analysis does not correlate well at all with import volumes. Nonetheless, we expect Chinese interest in U.S. pork to wane over the summer.
4
The mounting losses in the Chinese pig sector have led to some liquidation. As of mid-April commercial pig producers in China were losing around 358 RMB/head (US$57/head). And this is after 15 weeks of losses. Backyard production still accounts for 30% of production in China and backyard producers lack access to capital; when losses accrue, most sell pigs. The extent of liquidation is difficult to determine. China's Ministry of Agriculture reported that commerical pig producers processed 6% more pigs in Q1 versus a year ago, but they do not track backyard inventories. We know that losses in China lead to liquidation liquidation leads to tight supplies and higher prices in the future. The losses are extreme at this point and we expect liquidation in March/April to be strong. This will likely lead to tighter supplies into fall/winter of 2014 (a key demand period). The Chinese pork market roller coaster continues.
4
Overall we are forecasting a decline in U.S. pork exports to China due to higher prices and tight supplies. Offal will keep moving as China provides a singular outlet. EU suppliers will likely see growth in exports as the Russian ban will displace EU pork to third markets. We are forecasting 1% growth overall in 2014. Due to the porous nature of meat traded between Hong Kong and China, this report shows total imports to the region. While total import volumes are shown by country on page 1 and page 8, all other data combines Hong Kong and China import data. Chinese Import data from Hong Kong data is exluded, as is Hong Kong import data from China. This allows the report to show a "regional" picture of pork imports. While Global AgriTrends believes that the data/information provided is accurate and complete, no warranty is made with respect thereto. Global AgriTrends shall not be liable for decisions or actions taken by the user based on the data/information.
Reproduction of this information without written authorization is strictly prohibited. Copyright 2014
[email protected] 303-803-8716
CHINA / H. KONG PORK IMPORTS -- BY COUNTRY --
Page 1
Amounts include offal/variety meats Oct 13 28%
MONTHLY TREND
Metric Tons
300,000
U.S.
23%
Germany
250,000
5%
Denmark
200,000
Spain
150,000
Canada
100,000
Brazil
50,000
7% 10%
Others
15%
12%
Nov 13
23%
29%
13%
7%
7%
China/H. Kong Pork/PVM Imports 80,000
Dec 13 21%
70,000 Metric Tons
12%
9%
30%
60,000
316,132
U.S.
50,000
Denmark
8%
Spain
30,000
Canada
10%
22%
Others
10,000
11%
Jan 14
Brazil
20,000
14%
6%
Germany
40,000
30%
5%
12%
8%
F Feb 14
TOTAL PORK/PVM IMPORTS, BY SUPPLIER - METRIC TONS 2014 (1-3)
20%
29%
Mar 13
Mar 14
Chg
%
181,545
178,444
-3,101
-2%
508,390
494,695
-13,695
-3%
U.S.
38,746
42,264
3,518
9%
122,316
109,078
-13,239
-11%
Germany
32,032
29,385
-2,647
-8%
80,460
72,967
-7,493
-9%
-5,087
-8% M Mar 14
TOTAL
2013 (1-3)
12% 11%
Chg
%
Denmark
21,439
19,236
-2,202
-10%
60,560
55,473
Spain
15,878
17,952
2,074
13%
46,231
50,895
4,665
10%
Canada
14,586
11,023
-3,563
-24%
39,978
35,019
-4,959
-12%
Brazil
11,815
11,651
-164
-1%
30,602
31,606
1,004
3%
Others
47,050
46,934
-116
0%
128,244
139,657
11,413
9%
16%
7% 8%
9%
11%
24%
26%
7%
Hong Kong China
57,853
65,038
7,185
12%
159,434
177,352
17,918
11%
123,692
113,406
-10,287
-8%
348,956
317,343
-31,613
-9%
6% 10%
16% 11%
Data source: Global Trade Information Services
Page 2
CHINA / H. KONG PORK IMPORTS -- BY CATEGORY -Oct 13
Mar 06
MONTHLY TREND - IMPORT VALUE (CIF)
6%
$1.30 $1.20
Offal
Prep, prsvd
$1.10
55%
Frozen
$1.00
US $/lb
39%
Prep, prsvd
Frozen
$0.90 Offal
$0.80
Nov 13
$0.70
8%
$0.60 35% 57%
Dec 13
FROZEN PORK IMPORTS - MONTHLY
9%
40,000 35,000
37%
Metric Tons
30,000
54%
25,000
U.S.
20,000
Brazil
15,000
Spain
10,000
Others
Jan 14
9%
Germany 35%
5,000
56%
-
Feb 14
7%
38%
FROZEN PORK IMPORTS, BY SUPPLIER - METRIC TONS
55%
Mar 13 TOTAL U.S.
Mar 14
65,002
67,846
Chg 2,844
%
2013 (1-3) 2014 (1-3)
4%
172,618
186,604
Chg
%
13,986
8%
9,923
15,279
5,356
54%
27,309
35,998
8,688
32%
13,149
10,883
-2,266
-17%
33,843
27,190
-6,652
-20%
Brazil
6,899
7,399
500
7%
18,833
18,884
51
0%
Spain
6,285
8,349
2,064
33%
19,571
23,956
4,385
22%
Canada
5,667
5,281
-386
-7%
15,817
15,653
-164
-1%
23,079
20,656
-2,424
-11%
57,245
64,923
7,678
13%
Germany
Others
Mar 14
7%
38% 55%
Data source: Global Trade Information Services
Page 3
CHINA / H. KONG PORK IMPORTS -- BY CATEGORY AND SUPPLIER -All prices are C.I.F. 12-Month Totals $1.40
MONTHLY TREND - FROZEN IMPORT VALUE US$ Per Pound
Thousand Metric Tons
Brazil
$1.30
-
$1.20
US $/lb
100
150
U.S.
$1.10
U.S.
$1.00 $0.90
Germany
Germany
$0.80 $0.70
Brazil
Spain
$0.60 $0.50 Jun 13
Jul 13
Aug 13
Sep 13
Oct 13
Nov 13
Dec 13
Jan 14
Feb 14
Mar 14
Spain
MONTHLY TREND - OFFAL IMPORT VALUE US$ Per Pound $1.10
Thousand Metric Tons -
$0.90
100
200
300
U.S.
$1.00
US $/lb
50
U.S. Germany Canada
Germany
$0.80 $0.70
Denmark
Denmark
$0.60
Canada
$0.50 Jun 13
Jul 13
Aug 13
Sep 13
Oct 13
Nov 13
Dec 13
Jan 14
Feb 14
Mar 14
Over the past 6 months, frozen pork and offal have comprised 93% of total pork imports.
Data source: Global Trade Information Services
Page 4
CHINA / H. KONG PORK IMPORTS -- SUPPLIER EXCHANGE RATES -Rates indexed at 100
Prior 6 Years
Less Competitive
More Competitive
Prior 6 Months
Less
More Competitive
Both the Chinese renminbi and the Hong Kong dollar are pegged to a U.S. dollar range. The Chinese government most recently began to allow the range to expand In May 2010. © 2006 by Prof. Werner Antweiler, University of British Columbia, Vancouver BC, Canada.
Page 5
CHINA / H. KONG PORK IMPORTS -- MONTHLY AND YTD DATA TABLES -TOTAL PORK IMPORTS (Metric Tons) Mar 13 Offal Frozen Prep, prsvd Cured Chilled TOTAL
103,053 65,002 13,326 129 35 181,545
COUNTRY 1 2 3 4 5 6
Mar 14 98,435 67,846 11,734 187 243 178,444
Mar 13
U.S. Germany Denmark Spain Canada Brazil Others TOTAL
Mar 14
38,746 32,032 21,439 15,878 14,586 11,815 73,451 181,545
42,264 29,385 19,236 17,952 11,023 11,651 69,608 178,444
Chg
%
(4,618) 2,844 (1,592) 58 207 (3,101)
-4% 4% -12% 45% 589% -2%
Chg
%
3,518 (2,647) (2,202) 2,074 (3,563) (164) (3,843) (3,101)
9% -8% -10% 13% -24% -1% -5% -2%
2013 (1-3)
2014 (1-3)
301,225 172,618 34,074 340 133 508,390
273,604 186,604 33,602 351 535 494,695
2013 (1-3)
2014 (1-3)
122,316 80,460 60,560 46,231 39,978 30,602 128,244 508,390
109,078 72,967 55,473 50,895 35,019 31,606 139,657 494,695
Chg
%
(27,621) 13,986 (472) 11 401 (13,695)
-9% 8% -1% 3% 302% -3%
Chg
%
(13,239) (7,493) (5,087) 4,665 (4,959) 1,004 11,413 (13,695)
-11% -9% -8% 10% -12% 3% 9% -3%
TOTAL PORK IMPORTS (Million US$) CATEGORY Offal Frozen Prep, prsvd Cured Chilled TOTAL
Mar 13 $
$
COUNTRY 1 2 3 4 5 6
U.S. Germany Denmark Spain Canada Brazil Others TOTAL
197 139 32 2 0 370
Mar 14 $
$
Mar 13 $
$
84 60 39 29 27 31 158 370
184 138 30 2 1 355
$
$
Mar 14 $
$
97 49 33 33 20 32 144 355
$
$
Chg
%
(13) (1) (2) 1 1 (14)
-7% 0% -5% 43% 140% -4%
Chg
%
13 (11) (6) 4 (7) 1 (14) (14)
15% -19% -15% 15% -27% 4% -9% -4%
2013 (1-3) $
$
595 365 83 4 1 1,048
2014 (1-3) $
$
2013 (1-3) $
$
265 155 114 87 77 81 269 1,048
520 381 85 5 2 993
$
$
2014 (1-3) $
$
246 126 100 96 63 86 276 993
$
$
Chg
%
(75) 16 2 0 1 (56)
-13% 4% 2% 10% 98% -5%
Chg
%
(19) (29) (15) 9 (14) 5 7 (56)
-7% -19% -13% 10% -19% 6% 2% -5%
Data source: Global Trade Information Services
Page 6
CHINA / H. KONG PORK IMPORTS -- 6 MONTH DATA TABLES -TOTAL PORK IMPORTS (Metric Tons) CATEGORY Offal Frozen Prep, prsvd Chilled Cured TOTAL
COUNTRY 1 2 3 4 5 6
U.S. Germany Denmark Spain Canada Brazil Others TOTAL
Oct 13
Nov 13
Dec 13
Jan 14
Feb 14
Mar 14
TOTAL
% chg prior year*
103,571 63,438 15,309 111 54 182,484
100,479 68,176 16,501 120 45 185,322
116,020 71,856 18,351 134 60 206,421
102,691 69,804 12,715 106 246 185,561
72,478 48,954 9,153 59 46 130,690
98,435 67,846 11,734 187 243 178,444
593,674 390,074 83,764 716 694 1,068,922
-1% 13% 28% -2% 165% 6%
Oct 13
Nov 13
Dec 13
Jan 14
Feb 14
Mar 14
TOTAL
% chg prior year*
41,527 27,150 22,119 18,648 12,148 8,612 52,281 182,484
41,505 24,296 22,090 17,012 12,994 13,574 53,851 185,322
43,961 29,722 21,224 22,192 16,062 11,277 61,983 206,421
40,490 23,172 21,534 21,056 13,981 10,221 55,106 185,561
26,324 20,410 14,703 11,887 10,015 9,734 37,617 130,690
42,264 29,385 19,236 17,952 11,023 11,651 46,934 178,444
236,071 154,135 120,906 108,747 76,223 65,069 307,771 1,068,922
-5% -3% -7% 27% -6% -2% 28% 6%
TOTAL
% chg prior year*
TOTAL PORK IMPORTS (Million US$) CATEGORY Offal Frozen Prep, prsvd Chilled Cured TOTAL
Oct 13 $
$
COUNTRY 1 2 3 4 5 6
U.S. Germany Denmark Spain Canada Brazil Others TOTAL
198 130 36 2 0 366
Oct 13 $
$
94 51 39 34 22 21 105 366
Nov 13 $
$
200 144 43 2 0 389
Nov 13 $
$
98 45 41 33 25 36 111 389
Dec 13 $
$
230 150 49 2 1 432
Jan 14 $
$
Dec 13 $
$
99 57 39 44 30 31 131 432
201 140 32 1 1 375
Jan 14 $
$
90 44 40 40 25 27 109 375
Feb 14 $
$
136 102 23 1 0 263
Feb 14 $
$
60 34 27 23 18 26 75 263
Mar 14 $
$
184 138 30 2 1 355
$
$
Mar 14 $
$
97 49 33 33 20 32 91 355
1,148 805 214 10 4 2,180
TOTAL $
$
538 279 219 208 139 174 623 2,180
-2% 10% 30% 12% 56% 5%
% chg prior year* 0% -8% -8% 30% -10% -2% 23% 5%
* Change from same 6 months of the prior year
Data source: Global Trade Information Services
Page 7
CHINA / H. KONG PORK IMPORTS -- Composition by Supplier -Year-to-date TOTAL PORK IMPORTS (Metric Tons) and % of Total Supplier 1 2 3 4 5 6
Offal
U.S. Germany Denmark Spain Canada Brazil Others Total
68,760 44,469 39,714 20,708 19,129 10,612 80,824 273,604 55%
% 25% 16% 15% 8% 7% 4% 30%
Frozen 35,998 27,190 15,603 23,956 15,653 18,884 68,204 186,604 38%
% 19% 15% 8% 13% 8% 10% 37%
Prep, prsvd 3,783 1,293 154 6,177 210 2,110 21,985 33,602 7%
%
Chilled
11% 4% 0% 18% 1% 6% 65%
417 1 26 90 535 0%
%
Cured
%
78%
119 14 2 53 2 0 161 351 0%
34% 4% 1% 15% 0% 0% 46%
0% 5% 17%
TOTAL 2014 (1-3) 109,078 72,967 55,473 50,895 35,019 31,606 171,264 494,695 100%
% 22% 15% 11% 10% 7% 6% 35%
TOTAL PORK IMPORTS (Mil US$) and % of Total Supplier 1 2 3 4 5 6
U.S. Germany Denmark Spain Brazil Canada Others Total
Offal $
$
156.7 74.1 64.8 37.0 25.6 33.6 128 519.8 52%
% 30% $ 14% 12% 7% 5% 6% 25% $
Frozen 76.0 48.5 34.4 43.8 53.1 28.1 97 380.9 38%
% 20% $ 13% 9% 11% 14% 7% 25% $
Prep, prsvd 11.6 3.3 0.6 13.7 7.5 0.7 48 85.2 9%
% 14% 4% 1% 16% 9% 1% 56%
Chilled $
$
1.1 0.0 0.2 1 2.2 0%
% 49% $
2% 11% 39% $
Cured
%
0.9 0.1 0.0 1.6 0.0 0.0 2 4.6 0%
19% 3% 0% 35% 0% 0% 43%
TOTAL 2014 (1-3) $
$
246.2 125.9 99.8 96.2 86.2 62.7 276 992.7 100%
Data source: Global Trade Information Services
% 25% 13% 10% 10% 9% 6% 28%
Page 8
CHINA / H. KONG PORK IMPORTS -- Composition by Supplier and Importer -Year-to-date CHINA TOTAL PORK IMPORTS (Metric Tons) and % of Total Supplier 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
U.S. Denmark Spain Canada Germany Poland France Chile U.K.
Offal 53,290 37,979 16,708 17,118 10,689 9,127 13,559 5,128 3,650
Others
8,031
Total
175,278
% 30% 22% 10% 10% 6% 5% 8% 3% 2% 5%
Frozen 32,775 15,090 22,845 14,075 16,945 12,154 7,521 6,404 6,712 7,096
% 23% 11% 16% 10% 12% 9% 5% 5% 5%
Prep, prsvd 0 13 0 0
5%
21
141,616
55%
%
1% 38% 0% 1% 60%
35
45%
Chilled 399 -
% 100%
13 -
-
2
399
0%
Cured
%
87%
13%
15
0%
TOTAL 2014 (1-3)
%
86,463 53,068 39,566 31,193 27,648 21,281 21,081 11,532 10,362
27% 17% 12% 10% 9% 7% 7% 4% 3%
15,150
5%
317,343
0%
100%
HONG KONG TOTAL PORK IMPORTS (Metric Tons) and % of Total Supplier 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Germany Brazil U.S. Netherlands Spain Poland Italy U.K. Belgium Canada Russia France Denmark Vietnam Australia Hungary Ireland Argentina Sweden Finland Others Total
Offal 33,780 10,612 15,470 12,761 4,000 1,989 2,521 3,920 2,936 2,011 1,402 901 1,735 755 174 433 779 570 81 1,494 98,326 55%
% 34% 11% 16% 13% 4% 2% 3% 4% 3% 2% 1% 1% 2% 1% 0% 0% 1% 1% 0% 2%
Frozen 10,245 18,596 3,223 4,572 1,111 469 472 622 1,578 128 470 513 1,975 198 92 126 37 104 456 44,987 25%
% 23% 41% 7% 10% 2% 1% 1% 1% 4% 0% 1% 1% 4% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1%
Prep, prsvd 1,280 2,110 3,783 1,077 6,177 3,843 3,448 634 279 210 2,256 2,272 154 31 62 773 477 125 87 582 3,907 33,567 19%
%
Chilled
4% 6% 11% 3% 18% 11% 10% 2% 1% 1% 7% 7% 0% 0% 0% 2% 1% 0% 0% 2% 12%
19 0 1 7 26 8 42 0 32 136 0%
%
14% 0% 1%
5% 19% 6%
31% 0%
24%
Cured
%
14 0 119 6 39 76 56 1 2 10 2 0 6 3 335 0%
4% 0% 36% 2% 12% 23% 17% 0% 0% 3% 1% 0% 2%
1%
TOTAL 2014 (1-3) 45,319 31,318 22,614 18,416 11,329 6,301 6,045 5,089 3,837 3,826 3,786 3,662 2,405 2,006 1,064 1,040 1,037 941 761 663 5,893 177,352 100%
% 26% 18% 13% 10% 6% 4% 3% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% 3%
Data source: Global Trade Information Services
Page 9
CHINA / H. KONG PORK & PVM IMPORTS -- Global AgriTrends' Forecasts -PROJECTED PORK IMPORTS (Metric Tons) MONTHLY CATEGORY Offal Frozen Prep, prsvd Cured Chilled
Apr 14
May 14
ANNUALLY
Jun 14
Jul 14
2013
2014 F
14/13
85,852 58,613 11,737 95 74
91,278 62,318 12,479 101 79
89,631 61,193 12,254 99 77
90,722 61,939 12,403 100 78
1,170,928 766,582 156,775 1,250 583
1,211,564 739,309 159,011 1,332 1,096
3% -4% 1% 6% 88%
TOTAL
156,371
166,254
163,254
165,242
2,096,118
2,112,312
1%
COUNTRY
Apr 14
MONTHLY U.S. Germany Denmark Spain Canada Others TOTAL
May 14
ANNUALLY
Jun 14
Jul 14
2013
2014 F
19,671 30,168 20,607 17,552 12,304 56,069
20,914 33,411 21,909 19,439 13,082 57,498
20,537 31,496 21,514 18,325 12,846 58,537
34,645 26,566 18,936 15,457 13,687 55,952
449,846 342,285 243,719 190,123 177,440 692,705
382,135 373,565 260,097 207,066 156,186 733,263
156,371
166,254
163,254
165,242
2,096,118
2,112,312
14/13 -15% 9% 7% 9% -12% 6% 1%
China/HK Pork Imports and Forecasts 225,000
Metric Tons
200,000
2013
3 Yr Avg
2014
175,000 150,000
Forecasts
2012
125,000
100,000 75,000
J
F
Includes variety meats
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
MONTH
Key Forecast Assumptions: ● High U.S. prices will reduce demand for U.S. pork over the summer. EU suppliers will likely have supply to back-fill due to the Russian ban. Offal demand should remain intact from the U.S. as China is the singular demand for key offal products. ● Abundant pork supplies to weigh on domestic prices and profits into 2014. Imports remain competitive for processing and variety meat utilization. ● Market demand for frozen pork and offal will trend higher long-term. "Average" import volumes moving higher into the future. While Global AgriTrends believes that the data/information provided is accurate and complete, no warranty is made with respect thereto. Global AgriTrends shall not be liable for decisions or actions taken by the user based on the data/information.
China/Hong Kong Pork Imports
Supplemental Charts & Analysis
CHINA/HONG KONG PORK IMPORTS Pork Only (no variety meats)
Pork and Variety Meats
2014
Pork/PVM Imports 250,000
2013
2014
2013
200,000
2012
mt
mt
TOTAL
Pork Imports 100,000 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0
150,000
2012
100,000 50,000 0
Pork/PVM Imports
Pork Imports (Less U.S.)
80,000
2013
2014
50,000
2012
40,000
mt
60,000 mt
All (less U.S.)
70,000
30,000
20,000 10,000 0
180,000 160,000 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0
45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0
2012 2014
2014
2013
2012
Pork/PVM Imports
(U.S. Only)
mt
mt
U.S. Only
Pork Imports
(Less U.S.)
2013
90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0
(U.S. Only)
2012
2013 2014
Data source: Global Trade Information Services
Chinese Weekly Live Hog Prices 20
2011
RMB/kg
18
2013
16
2012 14 12
2014 10 8
Source: Average of Various Regional Reported Prices, USDA
2010
$140
Spread: China Carcass Price less U.S. Carcass Price, weekly
$120 $100
$80 $60 $40 $20 Apr 18 -$5
$0 -$20 Weekly Source: Average of Various Regional Reported Prices, USDA
$120
Spread: China Carcass Price less U.S. Carcass Price, monthly
$100
US $/CWT
$80
$60 $40 $20 Apr: $(9)
$0 -$20
-$40
Monthly through 3rd week of Apr 2014 Source: USDA, Average of various regional Chinese hog prices, converted to carcass basis
China/HK Pork Imports (US only) and China/US Price Spread 50,000
China/HK pork Imports (from the U.S.) Spread (CH$ less US$)
$120
$100 $80
40,000 30,000 20,000
$60 $40
US$/CWT
Metric Tons (Imported)
60,000
$20 $0
10,000
0
Monthly thru Mar 2014, prices through 3rd week of Apr 2014 Source: USDA, Average of various regional Chinese hog prices, converted to carcass basis
-$20 -$40
China/HK Pork Imports and China Pig Prices
120,000
China/HK pork Imports (All Sources)
100,000
China Pig Price, (US$/cwt, carc, equiv)
80,000
$200
$180 $160 $140 $120 $100
60,000 40,000
$80 $60
$40 20,000 0
Monthly thru Mar 2014, prices through 3rd week of Apr 2014 Source: China/H. Kong Customs, Average of Various Chinese hog price reportings, no variety meats incl.
$20 $0
US$/lb, equiv.
Metric Tons
140,000
(US$/lb carcass wt. equivalent)
U.S. and China Pig Prices (US$/cwt, carcass equiv) $200 $180 $160 $140 $120 $100 $80 $60 $40 $20 $0
U.S. Price, IA/MN carcass basis + 12% duty, 13% VAT, and $0.15/lb freight
$168
$109
China pig price (converted to carcass basis)
Monthly through 3rd week of Apr 2014 Source: USDA, Average of various regional Chinese hog prices, converted to carcass basis
$200 $180 $160 $140 $120 $100 $80 $60 $40 $20 $0
China/HK Pork Imports & Food Inflation
Pork Imports, MT
120,000
25% China Food Inflation (vs. prior year)
20%
100,000
15%
80,000
10% 60,000 5%
40,000
0%
20,000 China/HK Pork Imports
-
Monthly through Mar 2014 Source: Average of regional reported prices, China National Bureau of Statistics
-5%
Food Inflation, y/y chg
140,000
140,000
Pork Imports, MT
120,000 100,000 80,000
China/H. Kong Pork Imports Pork Imports: All sources Pork Imports: from the U.S.
60,000 40,000 20,000 Monthly through Mar 2014
Source: China/HK Customs
