History of floods on the River Vistula

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Hydrological Sciences Journal

ISSN: 0262-6667 (Print) 2150-3435 (Online) Journal homepage: http://www.tandfonline.com/loi/thsj20

History of floods on the River Vistula JERZY CYBERSKI , MAREK GRZEŚ , MAŁGORZATA GUTRY-KORYCKA , ELŻBIETA NACHLIK & ZBIGNIEW W. KUNDZEWICZ To cite this article: JERZY CYBERSKI , MAREK GRZEŚ , MAŁGORZATA GUTRY-KORYCKA , ELŻBIETA NACHLIK & ZBIGNIEW W. KUNDZEWICZ (2006) History of floods on the River Vistula, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 51:5, 799-817, DOI: 10.1623/hysj.51.5.799 To link to this article: http://dx.doi.org/10.1623/hysj.51.5.799

Published online: 19 Jan 2010.

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Hydrological Sciences–Journal–des Sciences Hydrologiques, 51(5) October 2006 Special issue: Historical Hydrology

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History of floods on the River Vistula JERZY CYBERSKI1, MAREK GRZEĝ2, MAàGORZATA GUTRY-KORYCKA3, ELĩBIETA NACHLIK4 & ZBIGNIEW W. KUNDZEWICZ5,6 1 Institute of Oceanography, University of GdaĔsk, GdaĔsk, Poland [email protected] 2 Institute of Geography, Nicolaus Copernicus University, ToruĔ, Poland [email protected] 3 Faculty of Geography and Regional Studies, University of Warsaw, Warsaw, Poland [email protected] 4 Institute of Water Engineering and Water Management, Technical University of Cracow, Cracow, Poland [email protected] 5 Research Centre for Agricultural and Forest Environment, Polish Academy of Sciences, Bukowska 19, 60-809 PoznaĔ, Poland [email protected] 6 Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Telegrafenberg, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany [email protected]

Abstract The history of floods on the River Vistula in Poland, covering the period from AD 988 to the present is reviewed. General information is given on the River Vistula, its basin and its floods, for the Upper, Middle, Lower Vistula and the Vistula Delta. Information on floods in the pre-instrumental period is derived from documentary sources. It is only since the re-establishment of Polish independence in 1945 that instrumental data make it possible to analyse floods on relatively homogeneous, uniform and gap-free observational material. In order to extend the flood-related records, recourse must be made to historical hydrology. Sources of flood-related information are examined and the particularities of the situation, driven by the history of Poland, are explained. Interpretation is offered of changes in flooding, caused by land use, river training and climate change. Changing characteristics of floods of different generation mechanisms (convective or advective rainfall, snowmelt, ice-jam) are discussed. Key words floods; historical hydrology; Poland; pre-instrumental records; River Vistula

Histoire des crues de la Vistule Résumé On passe en revue l’histoire des crues de la Vistule en Pologne de l’année 988 à nos jours. On donnera d’abord des informations générales concernant la haute, la moyenne et la basse Vistule ainsi que son delta. L’information sur les crues avant la pratique de la mesure provient de sources documentaires. Ce n’est que depuis le retour à l’indépendance en 1945 que des mesures permettent d’analyser les crues à partir de séries d’observations relativement homogènes, uniformes et continues. Afin d’étendre les séries relatives aux crues il est nécessaire de faire appel à l’hydrologie historique. On examinera les sources d’information relatives aux crues et on expliquera les particularités de la situation, dues à l’histoire de la Pologne. On peut imaginer des modifications du régime des crues en raison du changement de l’occupation des sols, de l’aménagement hydraulique ou de changements climatiques. On s ‘intéressera enfin à la modification des caractéristiques des crues selon leur mécanisme générateur (précipitations convectives ou stratiformes, fonte des neiges, embâcle de glaces). Mots clefs crues, hydrologie historique, Pologne, enregistrements pré-instrumentaux, Rivière Vistule

INTRODUCTION Poland, a country covered by two large river basins, the Vistula and the Odra, has frequently suffered from three water-related problems: having too little water, too much water, or polluted water (Kundzewicz, 2001). Floods, the destructive abundance of water, have occurred many times, from the earliest days of documented history until the present, leading to fatalities and high material losses. There have been a number of Open for discussion until 1 April 2007

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large floods in Poland in the last hundred years, such as the events in March 1924, July 1934, March 1947, July 1960, January 1982, July 1997 (the record-holding flood on the Odra, but also on the Vistula) and July 2001. In the present paper, an attempt is undertaken to synthesize the available information on the history of floods on the Vistula and its tributaries since AD 988 to the present. Floods still remain the main natural disaster in Poland, raising considerable concern. The material losses in recent severe floods were very high, up to the level of US$2.3–3.5 billion in the particularly dramatic flood in the summer of 1997 (Kundzewicz et al., 1999). Beyond direct and indirect material damage and fatalities, floods can lead to serious social damage – ill health, stress and social disruption. GENERAL INFORMATION ON THE VISTULA AND ITS FLOODS The River Vistula (Wisáa in Polish), flowing entirely on the territory of Poland (Fig. 1), is the longest river draining to the Baltic Sea and, at 1024 km, the longest Polish river. The drainage basin of the Vistula has an area of 193 866 km2 (of which 168 775 km2 is in Poland). The largest right-hand tributaries of the Vistula are the Narew (74 627 km2, therein the Bug, the left tributary to the Narew – 38 712 km2), and the San (16 876 km2) (cf. Czarnecka, 2005). The Vistula flows north from its source on the Barania Góra in the Beskidy Mountains in the Carpathian range to its mouth in the Baltic Sea. Flowing through a basin of largely variable form, the river is conceptually subdivided into more homogeneous reaches. In this paper, a simple approach has been assumed, wherein the Vistula basin is divided into three regions with distinctly different river flow regimes: the highland-dominated Upper Vistula basin from the source downstream to the San confluence; the Middle Vistula from the San to the Narew confluence; and the Lower Vistula. Throughout the course of the Vistula, there have been natural channel changes superimposed on strong man-made river regulations and transformations of the landscape (land-use and land-cover changes) in the river basin. The annual rainfall in the Vistula basin is about 600 mm year-1, with a summer maximum. In the mountains, precipitation is higher than downstream, where the Great Polish Lowland and Pomerania are drained by the Middle and Lower Vistula. There are large towns located on the Vistula, such as Cracow, Warsaw, Páock, Wáocáawek, ToruĔ, Tczew and GdaĔsk (until the 19th century); hence, there has been a large damage potential related to urban flooding. In the light of the 1997 flood, the flood protection system for large towns is found to be in need of re-assessment, overhaul and strengthening. Floods on the Vistula and its tributaries can be caused by a number of generating mechanisms, determined by the time of flood occurrence, location and territorial range. Four principal classes of flood generation mechanisms can be distinguished, namely: intense and/or long-lasting rain, snowmelt, ice-related phenomena and storm surge. The sub-division of rain-induced floods into those generated by convective rains, occurring locally on small areas, typically in the summer, particularly from late June to the end of July, and advective precipitation, which can cover the whole river basin of the Upper Vistula is important. Snowmelt-induced floods result from rapid melting of the snow pack, sometimes amplified by rainfall. Such floods, which mostly occur in March and Copyright ” 2006 IAHS Press

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Fig. 1 Map of the Vistula River basin.

April, but can occur during the whole winter, can have a very extensive territorial range. Ice-jam floods, related to the freeze-up and break-up periods, have frequently caused winter and spring floods. Floods caused by advective and frontal precipitation covering large areas are typical in most of the Upper Vistula basin. Floods caused by torrential rainfall are common over much of the left basin of the Lower Vistula and the delta region. However, the largest part of the Vistula and its drainage basin features snowmelt-induced floods, most commonly occurring in the eastern part of the Middle and Lower Vistula basin. Storm floods in the Vistula Delta region are caused by storm winds from the Baltic Sea; most frequently in winter. On the Upper Vistula, flood levels can be up to 5-6 m above the low-water level; on the Middle and Lower Vistula up to 7-9 m, and at Tczew over 10 m. There are two seasons when floods on the Vistula are unlikely; they have been very rare in the second half of April and during the whole of May and also in October–November. The flood defences in the Vistula basin include embankments of approx. 4700 km in length, protecting approx. 530 000 ha. There are several storage reservoirs playing a role in flood protection on the mountain tributaries of the Vistula, including Porąbka and Copyright ” 2006 IAHS Press

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Tresna on the Soáa, Czorsztyn and RoĪnów on the Dunajec and, the largest, Solina (460 u 106 m3) on the San. There are also reservoirs on the Vistula itself, such as Goczaákowice on the Maáa Wisáa (Small Vistula) and Wáocáawek on the Lower Vistula. SOURCES OF INFORMATION ON VISTULA FLOODS The Vistula is deeply rooted in the Polish tradition, being a subject of particular reverence to the Polish nation. It played a considerable role in the turbulent history of Poland. Over many centuries, Poland was a large and flourishing kingdom. In its less fortunate period (1772–1795) it was partitioned between three powerful neighbours and incorporated into Austria, Prussia (later Germany) and Russia. From 1795 to 1918, when Poland did not exist as an independent country, the Vistula flowed through the Austrian partition (with Cracow), and the Russian partition (with Warsaw), down to the Prussian (later German) partition (with ToruĔ and GdaĔsk), being in fact an international water course. In 1918, Poland regained its independence, while GdaĔsk (Danzig) was given the status of a free town. During the Second World War (1939– 1945), the Vistula basin was under both German and Soviet occupation. The history of the country has had a bearing on information about historical river floods. The three countries which partitioned Poland and the Vistula basin did not have common measurement units, e.g. in the Russian Empire, unique units of length were used, as well as the Julian calendar. These cross-boundary effects have to be taken into account, as observations on the Vistula were carried out by the hydrological services of three different countries. Due to the complex history of the Polish state, and destruction during both World Wars, only flood records since the 1950s can be interpreted reliably. This adds to the problem of short instrumental records in general. Indeed, extending the instrumental records of river stage with the help of other data is necessary. Two classes of approaches can be used: proxy data (indices linked indirectly to water flow/stage including tree scars caused by ice-jam floods and palaeohydrology), or documentary information (written documents and flood boards). The present paper explores the latter category. Documentary records are indeed very important for improving understanding, and extending the instrumental observation records. However, it is difficult to harmonize flood-related information originating from different sources possessing different credibility and accuracy. Having recognized the caveats, one can state that there exists a pool of information on the history of the Vistula floods. Since the early Middle Ages until the late 16th century, flood data on the Vistula were available only as narrative, hand-written documentary records, mostly in Latin. Those descriptions included only the most dramatic natural disasters and were often based on casual sources. A common entry was an impact-related statement that a flood in a given year caused “huge damage and destruction”, “flooding fields, poor harvest”; sometimes further characterization of the event was given. Less common are statements on flood water stage and the extent of inundated areas. However, sometimes water levels can be estimated from statements referring to existing topographic points or structures, such as information on damaged churches and destroyed bridges. There is much documentary information which describes floods on the Vistula in the region of Cracow, but information on the largest Copyright ” 2006 IAHS Press

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floods is available for the whole Vistula, including ToruĔ, GdaĔsk and ĩuáawy. Primary sources of data in this period are old chronicles, archives, annals and diaries by Dáugosz, Bielski, Kromer and others. Studies in this area, carried out at the Jan Kazimierz University in Lwów before World War II, led to pioneering publications (Walawender, 1932; NamaczyĔska, 1937; Werchacki, 1938; Szewczuk, 1938). A wealth of historical flood-related information can be found in Mikulski (1955), GirguĞ & Strupczewski (1965) and Makowski & Tomczak (2002). However, the historical material typically concerns only the high-impact events recorded in places with high damage potential (towns, ports and river crossings). That is, only patchy information is available, while, in contrast, ice jams were likely to occur over long sections of rivers. Furthermore, the homogeneity of the information is distorted by the many natural and anthropogenic changes in the river regime, land use and river regulation. Later, in the 16th and 17th centuries, with the wide dissemination of printed material, the number of commentaries about floods increased, written by direct observers in numerous diaries and notes. Signs of high waters survived on walls of churches and secular buildings. The oldest authentic flood board, built in the year of occurrence of the flood it marks, and dating back to 1671, is located on the monastery of St Agnes Church in Cracow. Other flood boards were usually erected years after the flood events they commemorate (cf. Fig. 2(a) and (b)). Many flood marks have deteriorated, and many of them have disappeared. A landmark in the collection of floodrelated information was one of the largest floods on the Vistula, in August 1813, after which more systematic observations of water levels were started in the Austrian partition. Observations on the Vistula were carried out by the hydrological services of the three countries sharing Poland. How these should be related to the hydrographic state of rivers and hydrotechnical constructions is difficult to verify at present. In the 19th century, intense regulation of the Vistula started and subsequently influenced the time series of floods. Since the end of the 19th century, photographic and cartographic documentation has become an indispensable source of information about flood magnitude and damage. Soon after Poland regained independence, in 1919, the Institute of Hydrology and Meteorology (State Hydrometeorological Service) was founded, which gave rise, in 1945, to the Polish Hydrometeorological Institute, later the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management. This institution has subsequently been responsible for measurements of precipitation and river stage. The accuracy, homogeneity and uniformity of the data have only been sufficient for objective analysis of floods since the 1950s. Estimates of earlier floods have to be treated with caution, due to non-uniformity and non-homogeneity of the available source material and the small number of observations on floods. Information on older floods is typically restricted to stage, without any attempt to compute the corresponding river flow (due to the lack of past rating curves). For many historical floods, however, information is qualitative, so the water level is not known. Even if the number of floods, e.g. mentioned on record, is typically used as indicator, it is not a representative, robust and reliable aggregate characteristic, due to inherent limitations. For instance, in the case of ice-related flooding, the number of registered floods depends on the location of the ice-jam flood with regard to settlements, because events far away from larger settlements remain unnoticed.

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(b)

(a) Fig. 2 (a) Contemporary flood marks commemorating historical flood events in Wilanów Park, Warsaw, surrounding the Royal Palace (on the left bank of the Vistula). Even if these marks have no historical value, they play an important public awareness role, reminding the visitors about the flood risk and visualizing water levels from the past. Photograph: Piotr Korycki. (b) Flood board on the cloister of Norbertanki Convent, in Cracow, putting the recent (1813) flood in perspective, by comparing it with the 1593 and 1697 floods. The board bears an inscription in old Polish: “For information, in the year 1593 in the month of July and in the year 1697 in the month of August the water flooding was by 20 inches [508 mm] greater than the inundation which occurred on 26 August 1813, and is commemorated by the monument below”. Copyright ” 2006 IAHS Press

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FLOODS IN THE VISTULA RIVER BASIN: UPPER, MIDDLE, AND LOWER VISTULA In this section, information is given on each of the three parts of the river and on historical floods in the sub-basins. Upper Vistula (from the source to the San confluence) The relatively high runoff from the Upper Vistula basin is a result of the hypsometric, geological and climatic conditions. This is an area of mainly mountainous and piedmont terrains with a dense river network. The 16th century map in Fig. 4 illustrates the features of flood generation. The map clearly shows the topographic characteristics: mountains and highlands dominating in the south, forest in the north, and the

Fig. 4 A 16th century map illustrating development of a part of the Upper Vistula basin (sub-basins of large right-hand Carpathian tributaries, Soáa and Skawa). Source: Atlas of Abraham Ortelius, Theatrum Orbis Terrarum, Antwerp, 1575. Copyright ” 2006 IAHS Press

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many settlements. Mountains with high precipitation, steep slopes, thin permeable layers, low storage, high runoff coefficients, and also numerous settlements with low infiltration capacity and water storage, have played an important role in flood generation. The network of right-bank Carpathian tributaries of the Upper Vistula has been a source of threat for the whole basin. It is estimated that the River Soáa makes, on average, the largest contribution to the generation of floods on the Upper Vistula (in approx. 50% of all flood events), followed by the Dunajec (40%), the Skawa (30%) and the Raba (25%). The topography, geology and precipitation conditions in drainage basins render these rivers the main sources of the largest floods in the Upper Vistula basin. However, this does not mean that other tributaries can be neglected. Information on past floods focused on events affecting large settlements located along the main course of the Vistula, usually Cracow and adjacent towns. Systematic documentation for Carpathian tributaries of the Vistula is limited and dates back to the end of 19th century. Documents referring to earlier events are rather sporadic. There have been many anthropogenic factors that have influenced flood risk in the Upper Vistula basin throughout the centuries. Up to the end of the 10th century, accelerated human settlement fostered movement of solid material from the slopes towards the river valleys. This process of transport and accumulation triggered changes in river valleys and beds and increase in the range of inundation during intense summer rainfall (Starkel, 2000). From the 11th to the 18th centuries, increases in population led to massive deforestation. From the 14th to the 16th centuries, the cultivated areas increased from 35% to 60% of the basin area (Gieysztor, 1982). Population growth prompted anthropogenic interference with the hydrological cycle. For example, a large flood in 1270 in Cracow triggered construction of the first river regulation structures on the Vistula (Trafas, 1992). In the western part of the basin, in Upper Silesia, expansion of coal mining since the 14th century caused adverse changes in the hydrological regime, resulting from changes in landscape – mass forest clearance, construction of coal and metal ore flushing machines and construction of drainage drifts in mines (Czaja, 1994). Many settlements were established, as can be seen in the 16th century map covering the Soáa and Skawa watersheds (Fig. 4). However, settlements respected the river's right to flood the valley. After the end of the 18th century, the population grew further, which amplified the vulnerability to flooding. In the 19th and 20th centuries, river regulation and the transformation of the Upper Vistula system (bypasses shortening the rivers course) were undertaken and further urbanization took place, which intensified the speed of water movement. Water engineering responded to the needs of both the use of the river for transportation of products, and flood protection of the areas in the vicinity of the river, which were reclaimed for urbanization. There were no regulations to guide site planning for river valleys (flood risk areas). The most serious changes in the river hydraulics of the Vistula included the shortening of the river course by 40% and the narrowing of the natural valley by river embankments. In the Carpathian part of the Upper Vistula, training walls were built for river and mountain streams. They served and still serve as protection against damage from river bed washout and erosion of river banks during floods. The consistent development of flood protection systems dates back to the end of World War I. Earlier works were performed irregularly since 1830 and included cleaning of the Vistula riverbed, elimination of meanders and river branches and translocation of some tributaries, for example, the River Rudawa. Based on records Copyright ” 2006 IAHS Press

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and data about floods since 1813, at the beginning of the 1920s, a plan of works was developed, also utilizing previous projects, such as the concept of the Vistula bypass in Cracow, dating back to 1900. After the large flood of 1934, design works and construction accelerated (KĊdzior, 1934). These included extensions of retaining walls and construction of river embankments, storage reservoirs and dams and river training in mountain areas. World War II stopped these construction activities, which were continued from the 1950s. However, at present, flood risk is high, resulting from population increase, subsequent urbanization and insufficient investment. The total length of embankments on the Upper Vistula and its tributaries is 2200 km, protecting an area of 240 000 ha. The chronology of floods goes back to the early days of the Polish statehood. GirguĞ & Strupczewski (1965) mention, among others, the following large events: 1118, with inundations caused by long-lasting rain in spring and summer; 1221, with multiple inundations between Easter and autumn; 1253, with period of long-lasting and intense rain between Easter (20 April) and St Jacob’s Day (25 July); 1270, with wet period and flooding on St Mary Magdalene’s Day (22 July), with many fatalities; 1427, with rain from St Bartholomeo Day (24 August) until the onset of frost. Documents mention many historic floods, caused by intense and/or long-lasting, precipitation in summer, which occurred on the days of Roman Catholic saints such as St John (24 June), St Margaret (13 July), St Mary Magdalene (22 July), St Jacob (25 July), St Ann (26 July) and St Bartholomeo (24 August). The chronology of great floods in the Upper Vistula basin from the 10th century until 1960, was prepared from documentary sources, and presented in the monograph of BielaĔski (1997). The chronology is not uniform, since the principal interest was in floods in last two centuries. The coincidence of major floods on the Upper Vistula and its Carpathian tributaries leads to disastrous floods. For, example, in 1934, the coincidence of flood waves on the Upper Vistula and Dunajec caused a large-scale inundation in the Vistula basin. Middle Vistula (between the confluences of the San and the Narew) The Middle Vistula basin extends from the Polish highlands to the lowlands, where the river cut a valley 12–20 km wide in glacial and Holocene deposits. In the early Holocene, floods in the Middle Vistula were frequent (Starkel, 2001a,b). The river frequently changed its channel within the river valley, especially during ice-jam floods, when the jammed water changed its course. Starkel (2000, 2001a,b) stressed the higher frequency of floods in the Little Ice Age (mostly snowmelt and ice-jam floods). The flood in the summer of 1813 had a huge spatial range – the inundated area included two left-bank terraces from Wilanów to KazuĔ. The maximum 1813 stage of the Vistula in Puáawy (848 cm) has not been reached since. An earlier flood, in 1635, had a huge spatial range, inundating right-bank areas, from Praga terrace to Radzymin. For centuries, flood boards have been placed on walls, trees and gauges in the towns on the Middle Vistula and, in particular, in Warsaw. The first observations of the level of the Vistula, carried out by Magier, date back to 1799. However, there is a considerable non-uniformity in observations since the location of the Warsaw gauge changed many times (àopata & Gutry-Korycka, 2002). Copyright ” 2006 IAHS Press

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Figure 5 illustrates the chronology of high flows of the Vistula in Warsaw between 1813 and 2005, with marked levels of catastrophic and very high floods. Between 1799 and 2005, there were 15 occasions when the water level was above 750 cm in Warsaw (adjusted values to reflect the present location of the zero of the gauge), cf. Fal & Dąbrowski (2001a). Between 1813 and 1900, there were ten such floods (six in summer and four in winter), while in the 20th century, the number of floods was much lower (five, three in summer and two in winter) (Fal & Dąbrowski, 2001a,b). This observation corroborates the finding of more numerous floods in the 19th century (late phase of the Little Ice Age) as compared to the 20th century. The highest stages, 855 cm in July 1844 and 808 cm in August 1813, corresponded to rain-induced summer floods. The last large (above 750 cm) winter half-year flood in Warsaw took place in March of 1947 and the last two floods in the summer half-year occurred in 1960 and 1962. Recently, the stage in Warsaw reached 706 cm in July 1997 (intense and long-lasting rainfall) and 658 cm in March 2005 (snowmelt-induced flood caused by sudden warming). According to Fal & Dąbrowski (2001a,b), snowmelt-induced floods have constituted 64% of all floods on the Middle Vistula. Snowmelt-induced floods occur most frequently in March (44% of snowmelt floods), April (28%) and February (16%), while the rain-induced floods are most frequent in July, August and June (29%, 24% and 20%, respectively). In the Polish bibliography, Kolberg (1861) was the first to analyse the causes of the formation of ice jams, which led to catastrophic floods in the winters of 1828/29, 1839/40 and 1844/45. One of the important observations made by Kolberg (1861) was: “The most dangerous condition was manifested … when the freeze lasted for a long time and when the water level during the freeze was unusually high”. In the section between Warsaw and Wyszogród, Kolberg noted several ice jam floods in the spring 1000 900 800

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Fig. 5 Annual maximum water level (in cm) of the Vistula River in Warsaw (1813– 2005) according to data from Bogdanowicz et al. (2000) and Fal & Dąbrowski (2001a). The level of 750 cm is marked; CF: catastrophic flood.

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of 1817, 1839, 1845, 1846 and 1855, when ice destroyed all the bridges, mainly as the distances between the supports were too small. The greatest known ice-jam (break-up flood) on the Middle and Lower Vistula occurred in March 1855. The dikes were broken in 66 places from Warsaw to the mouth of the river, 126 villages were completely destroyed and 102 people drowned (Tyszka, 1954; Kobendzina, 1954). Severe snowmelt floods occurred downstream of Warsaw – in 1958 and in 1979 snowmelt in the Narew basin produced a water equivalent of 200–300 mm. Between 1817 and 1864, 14 large floods were recorded in the Warsaw region, half of which were ice-jam floods (Sáowikowski, 1881, 1892; OrleaĔski, 1934; Kobendzina, 1954). It was found that the elevation of the water level caused by the ice jam does not have to be higher than the crown of the dike in order to cause dike breaching; the pressure of the ice floes on the dike may lead to the formation of the initial breach. As the construction of old dikes was not as resistant as the contemporary ones, large numbers of dike breaches and flooding of the adjacent lands were noted. Lower Vistula (downstream of the Narew confluence) The reach of the Lower Vistula has very different patterns; from a braided river, through a large reservoir-regulated river (limited meandering or straight channel) to a river regulated by embankments. Wáocáawek Dam and Reservoir are located between km 618 and km 674.5. The reach between km 674.85 and km 718 is a partially regulated section of the river, being under a considerable influence of the Wáocáawek Hydropower Plant work. Further down, from km 718 to km 941 (mouth), the river is regulated. In the Lower Vistula Valley, 68 530 ha of land is protected by embankments. The position of the crest of the embankment above the 1% high water stage (March 1924) ranges from 0.5 to 3.0 m. The total length of the embankments from the River Narew to the River Nogat is 642 km. However, 60 700 ha can still potentially be flooded. The most common flood danger on the Lower Vistula in the history has been due to freezeup in winter and break-up of the ice jams in spring (GrzeĞ, 1991; GrzeĞ et al., 1997). The maximum water stages on the Vistula between Modlin and Grudziądz are considerably higher in the winter half-year than in the summer half-year. In Grudziądz, the difference was 178 cm (1053 cm in March 1877 and 875 cm in June 1962). In Korzeniewo, in the last 150 years, the difference was even higher (230 cm), with the winter half-year record and the summer half-year record being, respectively 1106 cm in March 1877 and 876 cm in June 1962. Figure 6, based on decadal data compiled by Pawáowski (2003), illustrates the number of floods on the Lower Vistula, observed in consecutive 50-year periods from AD 988 to 2000. It is clear that the information present in this figure should be treated with caution. The chronology before the 14th century is certainly less complete. The increase in the number of floods from the mid-14th to the mid-16th century, when floods occurred every two years or even more frequently, can be linked to the construction of the first, poorly-built dikes, which gave a false feeling of security to the inhabitants of the river valley and stimulated an increase in population density. When improved dikes were built, the number of floods decreased. The increase in the number of floods in the mid-17th and early 18th centuries, and also the rise of ice-jam floods, Copyright ” 2006 IAHS Press

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Fig. 6 Number of floods in the Lower Vistula over the last millennium, using compilation of data after Pawáowski (2003).

can be linked to the climatic effects due to the Little Ice Age, with a particularly high increase in the number of floods observed in the first half of the 19th century. Largescale land-use change and, in particular, the deforestation in the Upper Vistula basin, led to increase in runoff. A partial regulation of the Lower Vistula also affected the occurrence of floods. Many of the patterns associated with the ice-jam floods had already been discovered in the 19th century (GrzeĞ, 1991). Sáowikowski (1881, 1892) was one of the first who tried to explain the formation of frazil and anchor ice, and who pointed out the connections between the formation of ice jams and the regulation of the river. Of special interest are his observations on the effect of ice jams on the main course of the Vistula, and on the deepening of parts of the channel outside the main course. Dangerous situations arise when, as a result of changes in the conditions of flow, the main current finds itself at the base of a dike. Such situations occurred in the region of Nieszawa and Ciechocinek in 1868 and 1892, where wash-outs of dikes occurred in the course of a few hours (RaczyĔski, 1935). The history of systematic studies of ice-jam phenomena on the Vistula is over 110 years old (Puciata, 1894). At the end of the 19th century, a comprehensive study of ice jams was undertaken on the upper section of the Lower Vistula, which was one of the first such attempts in the World. This occurred after a series of catastrophic floods, recurring almost every winter within the borders of the Russian partition, led to the appointment of an imperial commission under the leadership of a Polish engineer M. Puciata, carrying out a critical evaluation of the flood mitigation provisions. The dikes were recognized as being too weak and of faulty configuration: the varying width of the spacing of the dikes was often the cause of the formation of ice jams. A system of early warning of ice-jam flooding was initiated, and the measurements were communicated to Warsaw by telegraph. In his report, Puciata (1894) presented the first classification of ice jams in the world, taking into account the time of formation of the ice jam and its duration and many of his conclusions remain valid to date. Copyright ” 2006 IAHS Press

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The state of the flood control measures on the Vistula within the boundaries of the German partition was acknowledged as adequate at the turn of the 20th century, but this did not apply to the ice-jam flooding. According to Wojtkiewicz (1926), almost all the major floods in the 19th century were caused by ice jams. During the 1855 ice-jam flood, 42 breaches occurred in the dikes in the region of ToruĔ and 29 at Cheámno. Especially dangerous were the floods in March 1888 and in March 1891. In the former, the break-up of the ice cover commenced first in the upper section of the Lower Vistula. The ice that drifted downstream was jammed at km 887, forming enormous obstructions to flow. The irregularity of the occurrence of ice-jam floods, in terms not only of time but also location, is the main reason that ice jams and ice-jam floods are generally treated as incidental or even as extraordinary phenomena. This is also related to the fact that only those ice-jam floods which caused considerable material losses have been recorded and noted. It is most frequently the case that the level of damage is the fundamental criterion of an ice-jam flood record. On the basis of the historical material and the results of contemporary observations, it has been shown that ice jams and the floods caused by them, despite their transitory character, have been an important and, as yet, poorly known element of the hydrological regime of the Lower Vistula. The complexity of the causes of their origin, the complicated mechanisms of their formation and the break-up, the short duration of their existence, as well as other characteristics make them difficult to study (GrzeĞ, 1991). A further division of the Lower Vistula, which also included a differentiation of its ice regime, occurred after damming the river at Wáocáawek, the most troublesome icejam location in Poland in last decades, noted for a large ice-jam flood in January 1982, which caused the inundation of over 100 km2. Collected photographic material demonstrated that the height of the rise in water level due to ice jams on the Lower Vistula may range between 2 and 3 m. Occasionally, it exceeds 4 m, as happened in the region of Cheámno in March 1937. Most dangerous are the ice jams that are formed at a high water level (March 1924). Even the present network of river gauging stations, which are located at distances of up to 50 km, does not permit the recording of all ice-jam induced rises in water level. The Vistula Delta The Vistula Delta, known as ĩuáawy WiĞlane, is a clearly delineated regional geomorphological unit, shaped like a slightly deformed triangle. The base of the triangle, forming its northern border, is the Vistula Spit stretching along the sea coast of the Bay of GdaĔsk. The southern border on the top of the delta is at the fork of the Vistula near Biaáa Góra into two main historical arms, Leniwka and Nogat. GdaĔsk is located in the northwestern corner of the delta. The area of the delta, outlined by the 10 m a.s.l. contour, is slightly over 1700 km2, of which nearly one-third is situated below the mean sea level and over a half is in areas below 5 m a.s.l. There is a very high density of water-courses (about 12 km km-2). The sea-level changes in the Holocene moved the coast line of the Baltic to the southern part of GdaĔsk Bay. The conditions then became favourable to the forming of a sandbar, behind which a large lagoon (in the past encompassing a considerable part of Copyright ” 2006 IAHS Press

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(a)

(b)

Fig. 7 The Vistula Delta: (a) reconstruction c. 1300, after Bertram et al. (1924) with amendments by Cyberski; (b) changes of the location of the Vistula mouth until 1724, in 1724–1840, 1840–1895 and after 1895, after UĞcinowicz et al. (2001) with amendments by Cyberski.

the present Vistula Delta) formed on the land side and gradually filled with alluvia. The thickness of the deposits accumulated in the Vistula Delta ranges from a few to 60 m. There have been many major hydrographic changes in the Vistula Delta in the last millennium (cf. Cyberski, 1995; Cyberski & Mikulski, 1976). In 1242, Stara Wisáa (Old Vistula) cut an outlet to the sea through the barrier near Mikoszewo. In the 13th and 14th centuries, the Nogat, formerly a separate stream, joined the Vistula Copyright ” 2006 IAHS Press

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(cf. Fig. 7(a)). In the early 14th century, major hydraulic construction started in the Vistula Delta. By 1380, the Teutonic Knights had completed embankments and dikes in GdaĔsk ĩuáawy. Major changes were related to the division of the water outflow between the two principal arms – the Nogat and the Leniwka. In 1553, upon the initiative of two towns – GdaĔsk and Elbląg – regulation works were undertaken and a channel was dug under Biaáa Góra, between the Vistula and the Nogat. As a result of these works, most of the Vistula waters flowed down the Nogat and navigation problems appeared on the Vistula flowing to GdaĔsk (Leniwka). This had led to a long-lasting dispute over the “Vistula water” between GdaĔsk on the one part and Elbląg and Malbork on the other – due to the water shortage in the Leniwka and the water excess in the Nogat. After the great flood in 1611 near Malbork, a royal decree was issued in 1613 to build a dam regulating the division of the Vistula waters into the Leniwka and the Nogat in a ratio of 2:1. The devices installed under Biaáa Góra worked quite well until the Swedish wars in mid-17th century, when their destruction disrupted the flow arrangement. By the late 18th century, the Nogat had taken almost all of the high flows of the Vistula. Subsequent attempts at regulating the flow were taken up shortly after the tragic flood of 1829. Based on a design from 1848, the fork of the Nogat off the Vistula was transferred to a location 4 km below Biaáa Góra. Numerous hydrotechnical operations led to division of waters between the Vistula and the Nogat in a ratio of 4:1. A flood in 1888 with breaches in the flood bank and flooding of most of ĩuáawy Elbląskie, prompted the decision to regulate the mouth of the Vistula (cf. Fig. 7(b)). Then, in 1914–1917 the Elbląg Vistula (Szkarpawa) and GdaĔsk Vistula (Dead Vistula) were cut off from the main river bed with the help of locks. In the final stage of World War II, the retreating German army intentionally destroyed almost the entire drainage system and flood protection in the Vistula Delta; the delta system reconstructed by the Poles was very costly and took more than a decade to complete. As a result of works in the lower reaches of the Vistula, the river almost does not drain its delta any more. The left Vistula floodbank protects ĩuáawy GdaĔskie, while the right one protects ĩuáawy Wielkie and ĩuáawy Elbląskie. The swollen waters of the Vistula are carried away by the embanked river into the Bay of GdaĔsk. Since the cutting was made and the outlet arms were closed, the local flood systems have become autonomous and independent of the Vistula. The measures taken at the turn of the 19th and 20th centuries, to improve the security of the inhabitants of the delta of the Vistula and GdaĔsk could be regarded as quite effective, although they do not fully protect the region in the long term, especially against complex floods of diverse origin (Makowski, 2003). Table 1 shows a chronology of flood-related information for the Vistula Delta. From the 16th to the 19th centuries, there were approximately 150 dangerous floods in the Vistula Delta, which means that they happened every few years, some leading to depopulation and fall of the economy in the delta (Cyberski, 1982). Danielewicz (1983) mentions that, during the years 1328–1896, in the region of the mouth of the Vistula, 174 cases of dike breaches were recorded as a result of ice-jam floods. The first (unsuccessful) attempts to control ice formation on the Vistula were undertaken at the end of the 18th century. These were based on directing the ice flows, which were drifting downstream, into the Nogat. Great ice-jam floods on the Lower Vistula occurred, on average, every 3–5 years on the same section of the river. The Copyright ” 2006 IAHS Press

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Table 1 A chronicle of more important floods in the Vistula Delta, 1328–2001 (based on Majewski 1969, 1993; Cyberski & Mikulski, 1976; Cyberski, 1995; extended). Year 1328 1540, 1543 1611 1655–1660 1747 1813 1813–1815 1829 1840 1855 1888 1924 1955 1956 1983 9/10 July 2001

Description of flood event Breach in the left dike of the Vistula below Biaáa Góra; inundation of GdaĔsk ĩuáawy and part of the town of GdaĔsk Huge floods; depopulation of ĩuáawy; followed by arrival of new Mennonite settlers and economic development Large flood strikes Malbork; the Malbork voivode puts forward a proposal for flow regulation Polish–Swedish war; settlement in the Vistula Delta discontinued; intentional breaching the embankments by order of the Swedish king Carolus Gustavus and inundation of ĩuáawy Huge flood, during which the Vistula waters overtopped the banks, flowed across the separating strip of land and into the Nogat Large flood in the lower course of the Vistula (flooding throughout the course of the Vistula) Breaching of embankments and inundation of ĩuáawy during a siege of GdaĔsk by Russians and Prussians Huge ice-break flood in GdaĔsk ĩuáawy; 10 hours after dike breach the whole of GdaĔsk ĩuáawy was inundated; the authorities decided on river regulation Ice jam on the GdaĔsk Vistula causing the formation of a new channel of the ĝmiaáa Wisáa at Górki (31 January–1 February) Large ice-jam flood. The area of land flooded as a result of the breaching of a dike in the Tczew region comprised 440 km2 (Maksimowicz, 1904). A large flood in Great (Malbork) ĩuáawy leading to intensification of regulatory work Large flood in ĩuáawy; a law was passed ordering an artificial channel to be dug at ĝwibno Huge snowmelt- and rainfall-induced flood (the most severe in the 20th century) Strong storm surge at the Vistula mouth Ice jam at the Vistula mouth at ĝwibno; the left pier breached The embankment screening the Nowakowo polder from the Vistula Haff damaged; a catastrophic flood Destructive flood in GdaĔsk caused by torrential rainfall

largest known ice-jam flood took place in the region of Tczew in 1855 and led to the inundation of 440 km2 of the valley and 126 villages. Among the best known is the ice jam which occurred near Pleniewo (Górki) in January 1840, when ice phenomena played a role in the shaping of the channel. Water dammed by the ice jam broke a sandbar and formed a new estuary for the Vistula into the Gulf of GdaĔsk. The new branch of the river was given the name of ĝmiaáa Wisáa (Brave Vistula). During one night, a channel of 300 m width was formed, and over the next few days it widened to 750 m. The further shortening of the course of the river was accomplished by man. In 1895, the excavation was completed near ĝwibno, with the main purpose of shortening the course of the river for conveyance of the ice into the Gulf of GdaĔsk (Matakiewicz, 1920; Kowalczyk, 1954). CONCLUDING REMARKS The history of floods of the Vistula is an important research area, yet it is a difficult one to study. Several projects on historical hydrology have been undertaken in Poland and, as a result, much qualitative information on historical floods has become available. Over a long time in the history of Poland, observations of Vistula floods were carried out by the services of three countries that partitioned the Polish Kingdom. Copyright ” 2006 IAHS Press

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Floods on the Vistula are a complex phenomenon, caused by several generating mechanisms, with a relative frequency of occurrence specific for the different parts of the basin. Different flood types have been subject to various changes throughout the centuries. Finally, using various types of data (instrumental records, documentary information, indirect and proxy data) of largely differing accuracy and reliability is not a trivial matter. Floods on the Vistula show a multi-factor dependence: juxtaposition of changes in climate, geomorphological evolution, land use (runoff generation), sea level, development of dams and embankments and their maintenance. There is a clear nonstationarity, but the course of the climate may have been overshadowed by immense land-use and land-cover changes: deforestation, urbanization and river regulation. However, there is a strong Little-Ice-Age track in winter flood records. Winter floods seem to have exhibited a decreasing frequency of snowmelt and icejam floods in the warming climate over much of the Vistula basin. Yet, from time to time a severe winter occurs, with cold spells and high snow cover. Shifted timing of high flows (snowmelt floods shifted towards winter) has been also observed. The history of Vistula floods indicates that inundations (caused by intentional breaking of embankments) have been weapons in wars (e.g. 1655–1660, 1813–1815 and 1945). Despite all the developments in different areas of technology, the flood risk continues to threaten riparian areas in the Vistula basin. A look at the history of floods places the recent events in a broader perspective covering a period of over a thousand years. The analysis of documentary information for the Vistula is a contribution to the growing pool of material on pre-instrumental floods in Central and Eastern Europe. It helps find area-covering events caused by the same weather patterns, and verify the dating. Acknowledgements The work of Jerzy Cyberski, Marek GrzeĞ, Maágorzata Gutry-Korycka and Zbigniew Kundzewicz has been accomplished within the research project “Extreme meteorological and hydrological events in Poland” (PBZ-KBN086/PO4/2003), financed by the Ministry of Education and Science of the Republic of Poland. The contribution of ElĪbieta Nachlik results from two research projects financed by the Committee of Scientific Research of the Republic of Poland. Useful suggestions by Dr John C. Rodda and Dr Vincent Kotwicki, which helped the authors improve this contribution, are gratefully acknowledged. REFERENCES Bertram, H., La Baume, W. & Kloeppel, O. (1924) Das Weichsel–Nogat–Delta, Danzig. BielaĔski, A. K. (1997) Materiaáy do historii powodzi w dorzeczu górnej Wisáy (Materials on the history of floods in the Upper Vistula Basin, in Polish). Monografia Politechniki Krakowskiej im. T. KoĞciuszki no 217, Kraków. Bogdanowicz, E., Fal., B. & DobrzyĔska, I. (2000) Wisáa w Warszawie, Wyd. Biuro Zarządu Miasta st. Warszawy, Wydz. Planowania Przestrzennegro i Architektury, Warszawa. Cyberski, J. (1982) Charakterystyka hydrologiczna (Hydrological characteristics, in Polish). In: Dolina Dolnej Wisáy (Lower Vistula Valley) (ed. by B. Augustowski), 103–153. Ossolineum, GdaĔsk. Cyberski, J. (1995) Hydrography of ĩuáawy WiĞlane (Vistula Delta) and its changes over the historical period. In: Polish Coast: Past Present and Future (ed. by K. Rotnicki), Special Issue no. 22 of J. Coastal Res. 151–159. Cyberski, J. & Mikulski, Z. (1976) Stosunki hydrologiczne ĩuáaw (Hydrological conditions of ĩuáawy, in Polish). In: ĩuáawy WiĞlane (ed. by B. Augustowski), 239–288. Ossolineum, GdaĔsk.

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Czaja, S. (1994) Przemiany stosunków wodnych w przestrzeni cywilizacyjnej Górnego ĝląska od wieku XIV do wieku XVIII (Transformations of water conditions in the civilization space of Upper Silesia from the 14th to the 18th centuries, in Polish). Rzeki – kultura, cywilizacja, historia, 3. Czarnecka, H. (ed.) (2005) Atlas podziaáu hydrograficznego Polski, czĊĞü 2. Zestawienie zlewni, Instytut Meteorologii i Gospodarki Wodnej, Warszawa. Danielewicz, W. (1983) Sto lat wiĞlanych lodoáamaczy (Hundred years of icebreakers on the Vistula, in Polish). Morze 2 (624), 3 (625). Fal, B. & Dąbrowski, P. (2001a) DwieĞcie lat obserwacji i pomiarów hydrologicznych Wisáy w Warszawie: Obserwacje stanów wody (Two hundred years of observations and hydrological measurements of the Vistula in Warsaw: water level observations, in Polish). Gospodarka Wodna 11, 461–467. Fal, B. & Dąbrowski, P. (2001b) DwieĞcie lat obserwacji i pomiarów hydrologicznych Wisáy w Warszawie: Przepáywy Wisáy w Warszawie (Two hundred years of observations and hydrological measurements of the Vistula in Warsaw: Vistula discharge in Warsaw, in Polish). Gospodarka Wodna 12, 503–510. Gieysztor, A. (1982) Wisáa w Ğredniowieczu (The Vistula in the Middle Ages, in Polish). In: Wisáa – Monografia rzeki (Vistula – Monograph of the River) (ed. by A. Piskozub). Wydawnictwa Komunikacji i àącznoĞci, Warszawa. GirguĞ, S. & Strupczewski, W. (1965) Wyjątki ze Ĩródeá historycznych o nadzwyczajnych zjawiskach hydrologicznometeorologicznych na ziemiach polskich w wiekach od X do XVI (Excerpts from historical sources on unusual hydrological and meteorological phenomena on Polish territories from the 10th to the 16th centuries, in Polish), WKià, Instrukcje i PodrĊczniki PIHM 87, Warszawa. GrzeĞ, M. (1991) Zatory i powodzie zatorowe na dolnej WiĞle. Mechanizmy i warunki (Ice-jams and floods on the Lower Vistula. Mechanisms and Conditions, in Polish). Instytut Geografii i Przestrzennego Zagospodarowania PAN, Warszawa. GrzeĞ, M., Rachocki, A. H. & Rolka, A.-M. (1997) Poland. In: Geomorphological Hazards of Europe (ed. by C. Embleton & Ch. Embleton-Hamann), 367–389. Elsevier, Amsterdam, The Netherlands. KĊdzior, A. (1934) W sprawie trwaáego zabezpieczenia doliny Wisáy i jej dopáywów przed powodzią (On a durable flood protection of the Vistula valley and its tributaries, in Polish). Kraków. Kobendzina, J. (1954) Powodzie na WiĞle w okolicach Warszawy (Floods on the Vistula in the vicinity of Warsaw, in Polish). Gospodarka Wodna 5, 156–158. Kolberg, W. (1861) Wisáa; jej bieg, wáasnoĞci i spáawnoĞü (The Vistula; its course, properties and navigability, in Polish), cz. 2, Warszawa. Kowalczyk, A. (1954) Zagadnienie ujĞcia Wisáy w Ğwietle bezpieczeĔstwa doliny (The problem of the Vistula estuary in the light of the safety of the valley, in Polish). Gospodarka Wodna 4, 158–160. Kundzewicz, Z. W. (2001) Water problems of Central and Eastern Europe – a region in transition. Hydrol. Sci. J. 46(6), 896–909. Kundzewicz, Z. W., Szamaáek, K. & Kowalczak, P. (1999) The Great Flood of 1997 in Poland. Hydrol. Sci. J, 44(6), 855–870. àopata, K. & Gutry-Korycka, M. (2002) The search for the periodicity and the tendencies in the extreme water stage of Vistula river during the last century. Miscelanea Geographica 10, Warsaw University Press. Majewski, A. (1969) Rozwój hydrograficzny delty Wisáy w okresie historycznym (Hydrographic development of the Vistula Delta in the historical period, in Polish). Przegląd Geofizyczny 14(22), 1. Majewski, A. (1993) Kronika powodzi w delcie Wisáy (Chronicle of floods in the Vistula Delta, in Polish). In: Uwarunkowania przyrodnicze i spoáeczno-ekonomiczne zagospodarowania dolnej Wisáy (ed. by Z. Churski), 13–28. Instytut Geografii UMK, ToruĔ. Makowski, J. (1993) Waáy przeciwpowodziowe dolnej Wisáy, historyczne ksztaátowanie, obecny stan i zachowanie w czasie znacznych wezbraĔ (Flood levees of Lower Vistula, historical evolution, present status and performance during larger flows, in Polish). Instytut Budownictwa Wodnego PAN,GdaĔsk. Makowski, J. (1998) Waáy przeciwpowodziowe dolnej Wisáy, historyczne ksztaátowanie, obecny stan i zachowanie w czasie znacznych wezbraĔ. (Flood levees of Lower Vistula, historical evolution, present status and performance during larger flows, in Polish). Part Two. Instytut Budownictwa Wodnego PAN, GdaĔsk. Makowski, J. (2003) Powodzie i zagroĪenie powodziowe w rejonie GdaĔska w przeszáoĞci (Floods and flood danger in the GdaĔsk region in the past, in Polish). In: PowódĨ w GdaĔsku 2001 (ed. by J. Cyberski), 13–30. Wydawnictwo GdaĔskie. Makowski, J. & Tomczak, A. (2002) Stany wody Wisáy w Toruniu w Ğwietle pomiarów z ostatnich dwóch stuleci. (Water stages of the Vistula in ToruĔ in the light of measurements in the last two centuries, in Polish) ToruĔskie Tow. Nauk., ToruĔ. Maksimovich, N. I. (1904) Uslowija ledochoda i borba s zatorami lda na riekie Wisle (The conditions of ice break-up and the control of ice jams on the Vistula river, in Polish). In: Trudy X Sjesda Russkich Diejtielej po Vodnim Putiam, Petersburg, 1–34. Matakiewicz, M. (1920) Regulacja Wisáy (Regulation of the Vistula, in Polish). Wyd. PTK, Warszawa. Mikulski, Z. (1955) Katastrofalne powodzie w Polsce (Catastrophic floods in Poland, in Polish), Czas. Geogr. 4, 380–396. Nachlik, E. (ed.) (2002) Historia powodzi w dorzeczu Soáy w powiecie Īywieckim (History of floods in the Soáa catchment in the ĩywiec country, in Polish). In: Lokalny plan ochrony przed powodzią dla powiatu Īywieckiego. Report of World Bank Project. Politechnika Krakowska. NamaczyĔska, S. (1937) Kronika klĊsk elementarnych w Polsce i w krajach sąsiednich w latach 1648–1696. Zjawiska meteorologiczne i pomory (Chronicle of elemental disasters in Poland and neighbouring countries in 1648–1696. Meteorological phenomena and blights, in Polish). Badania z Dziejów Spoáecznych i Gospodarczych, nr. 23, Lwów. OrleaĔski, H. (1934) Powodzie w Warszawie (Floods in Warsaw, in Polish). Kronika Warszawy 1(2), 1–8. Pawáowski, B. (2003) PiĊtrzenia zatorowe na Dolnej WiĞle w Ğwietle blizn lodowych na drzewach poziomu zalewowego (Ice-jam floods on the Lower Vistula in the light of ice scars on river of the inundation level, in Polish). Doctoral Dissertation, IG UMK, ToruĔ.

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Puciata, M. A. (1894) O zatorach na rzece WiĞle (Ice jams on the Vistula River, in Polish). Trudy I Sjezda Russkich Diejtielej po Vodnim Putiam, Petersburg, 247–261. RaczyĔski, M. (1935) Materiaáy do historyi Ciechocinka. Od zapoczątkowania budowy warzelniów soli do wybuchu wielkiej wojny (Information on the history of Ciechocinek. From the start of the construction of the salt-works until the Great War, in Polish), 400–408. Warszawa. Sáowikowski, J. (1881) Stany wody na WiĞle pod Warszawą od 1860 do r. 1880 z oznaczeniem peryjodów stawania i puszczania lodów (Water levels on the Vistula near Warsaw from 1860 to 1880 with an indication of the periods of the formation and break-up of the ice, in Polish), Pam. Fizjogr., 55–73. Sáowikowski, J. (1892) Charakterystyka Wisáy i o zjawiskach towarzyszących zamarzaniu rzek (Characteristics of the Vistula and concerning phenomena accompanying the freezing of rivers, in Polish). Pam. Fizjogr. 22, 181–214. Starkel, L. (2000) Heavy rains and floods in Europe during Last Millennium, Prace Geograficzne UJ 107, 55–62. Kraków. Starkel, L. (2001a) Historia doliny Wisáy od ostatniego zlodowacenia do dziĞ (Evolution of the Vistula River Valley since the last glaciation till present, in Polish) Monografia Instytutu Geografii i Przestrzennego Zagospodarowania im. St Leszczyckiego, no 2. PAN, Warszawa. Starkel, L. (2001b) Extreme rainfalls and river floods in Europe during the Last Millennium, Geographia Polonica, series: Papers in Global Change IGBP 8, 69–79. Szewczuk, I. (1938) Kronika klĊsk elementarnych w Galicji w latach 1772–1848 (Chronicle of elemental disasters in Galicia in 1772–1848, in Polish). Badania z Dziejów Spoáecznych i Gospodarczych, nr. 35, Lwów. Trafas, K. (1992) Zmiany biegu koryta Wisáy pomiĊdzy ujĞciem Przemszy a Sandomierzem (Changes of the course of the Vistula channel between the confluence of Przemsza and Sandomierz, in Polish). In: Wisáa w dziejach i kulturze Polski. Zmiany biegu górnej Wisáy i ich skutki. Wydawnictwa Uniwersytetu Warszawskiego. Tyszka, Z. (1954) Powodzie w Polsce i ochrona przed nimi w zarysie historycznym (Floods in Poland and flood protection in a historical outline, in Polish). Gospodarka Wodna 14(4), 144–146. UĞcinowicz, S., Koszka-Maron, D., Zachowicz, J. & Graniczny, M. (2001) The recent outlet area of Vistula River. First Annual IGCP-464 Meeting (Hong Kong, 25–28 October 2001) (poster). Walawender, A. (1932) Kronika klĊsk elementarnych w Polsce i w krajach sąsiednich w latach 1450–1586. I. Zjawiska meteorologiczne i pomory (z wykresami) (Chronicle of elemental disasters in Poland and in neighbouring countries in the years 1450–1586. I. Meteorological phenomena and blights (with graphs), in Polish). Badania z Dziejów Spoáecznych i Gospodarczych, nr. 10, Lwów. Werchacki, R. (1938) KlĊski elementarne w Polsce w latach 1587–1647. I Zjawiska meteorologiczne, stan urodzajów i pomory bydáa. II Mory (Chronicle of elemental disasters in Poland in the years 1587–1647. I Meteorological phenomena, status of crops and blights in animal husbandry. II Blights, in Polish). Sprawozdanie Towarzystwa Naukowego XVIII, 3, Lwów. Wojtkiewicz, M. (1926) Wisáa Pomorska (The Vistula in Pomerania, in Polish), Ser. Drogi wodne w Polsce, Warszawa.

Received 23 March 2006; accepted 26 June 2006

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