Governing power in South Africa South Africa
FFrom coal crunch... l h to wind rush? to wind rush?
ESRC climate change fellowship on the governance of clean development f l d l
Analytical framework This research fuses a political economy Thi hf liti l approach with socio‐technical transitions in pp order to gain insights into electricity governance and policy‐making in South Africa d li ki i S h Af i
Case studies Case studies • Integrated resource plan for electricity • Medupi coal Medupi coal‐fired fired power plant power plant
South Africa electricity sector y • • • •
National grid Electricity sector: 90% coal 50% of CO2 emissions 50% of CO2 emissions 70% access
Minerals‐energy complex gy p • Fine and Rustomjee (1996) “core site of accumulation in the South African economy” l i i h S h Af i ” • historical dependence on cheap coal + cheap p p p labour= cheap electricity for minerals export‐ oriented industry oriented industry • Energy Intensive Users’ Group (36 members) consumes 44% of SA’s electricity • SA SA’ss major international mining and energy major international mining and energy conglomerates e.g BHP Billiton, Anglo‐ American
“uniquely dependent on electricity and uniquely electricity‐intensive” l i i i i ”
Source: IBRD 2010:10
South Africa electricity South Africa electricity • Supply side crisis in 2006/8‐ load shedding • No longer cheapest electricity in world • Climate change: Copenhagen: 34% below Climate change: Copenhagen: 34% below current emissions baseline by 2020 & 42% by 2025 2025
Eskom monopoly Eskom monopoly • Generates 96% of national electricity • Sole transmitter of electricity via high‐voltage g transmission grid. • Strategic position within the MEC is th t threatened by: electricity supply shortages, d b l t i it l h t rising coal costs from private coal suppliers, funding crisis • Legislative changes to allow the introduction Legislative changes to allow the introduction of independent power producers in renewable energy
Southern Africa grid g
Source: Eskom 2008
Knowledge gap 1 Knowledge gap 1 Inadequate analysis of politics and political economy in socio‐technical transitions
Knowledge gap 2 Knowledge gap 2 A paucity of analysis of South Africa A paucity of analysis of South Africa’ss power power sector from a critical political economy perspective in post apartheid era perspective in post‐apartheid era (Büscher 2009:2)
Political economy perspective Political economy perspective • Analysis of historical power relations, structural change & vested interests ( (Söderbaum 2004, Moe 2010). , ) • Looks beyond the role of the state • Dynamics of global economic expansion, f l b l transnational corporations and multilateral institutions in governance. • Avoids Avoids ‘techno techno fix fix’ (Paterson 2005) and (Paterson 2005) and ‘policy policy fix’ (Büscher 2009)
Socio‐technical transitions: Multi‐level perspective
Research questions Research questions • How can perspectives from political economy p p f p y contribute to a socio‐technical transitions framework in order to generate insights into framework in order to generate insights into governance and policy making in South Af i ’ l t i it Africa’s electricity sector? t ? • To what extent do recent developments in South Africa’ss electricity sector represent a South Africa electricity sector represent a genuine shift in its minerals‐energy complex?
New Renewables, more coal New Renewables, more coal • Integrated Resource Plan for electricity, approved May 2011. • Doubling of generation capacity Doubling of generation capacity
New renewables, more coal ,
IRP 2010: demand forecast
New renewables, more coal New renewables, more coal • ‘Technical advisory group’ on modelling process: coal miners, energy intensive users, Eskom and government. No renewable energy Eskom and government. No renewable energy or civil society • Meetings and minutes confidential M i d i fid i l • Reveals the influential role that regime g incumbents have over electricity governance • Technical electricity modelling can be Technical electricity modelling can be inherently political
Medupi: ‘clean coal’
April, 2009
July, 2009 Source: www.eskom.co.za
•4.8 GW (Drax 4GW). In top 10 largest in world •4 8 GW (Drax 4GW) In top 10 largest in world •‘clean coal’: super‐critical, FGD, ‘ccs‐ready’ •world’ss largest dry‐cooled coal‐fired power plant •world largest dry cooled coal fired power plant •Will emit 30 million tonnes of CO2 p.a
World Bank loan to Eskom World Bank loan to Eskom • $3,040 million to Medupi • $260 million for the 100 MW Sere Wind Farm and 100 MW Upington CSP plant and 100 MW Upington CSP plant • $440 million for “low carbon energy efficiency components” including the Majuba Rail ” l d h b l Project
Medupi: ‘clean Medupi: clean coal coal’ Eskom’s finance director said, that World Bank loan finance is... “Catalytic for South Africa’s commitment to y renewable energy and lower carbon technologies such as large‐scale technologies such as large scale solar thermal solar thermal and wind power” • Clean Development Mechanism credits Clean Development Mechanism credits
Findings g Some gains made by renewable energy niches Increase in coal, though cheap abundant coal‐ based trajectory no longer sustainable Vested interests in MEC are still strong WB f di t M d i “ i f i l d WB funding to Medupi: “reinforcing landscape development” (Geels and Schot 2007) Technological modifications and discourse in the form of “incremental the form of incremental innovations innovations” (Scrase (Scrase and Smith 2009) to preserve regime interests
Findings g CDM‐ landscape pressure serving regime i interests rather than supporting niches h h i i h Limited structural changes in regime’s g g architecture
Methods • 60 semi‐structured interviews with: key government departments; wind IPPs; EIUG; government departments; wind IPPs; EIUG; technology manufacturers; national banks; lawyers; energy analysts; civil society; unions; gy g Eskom; and energy regulator. • National policy documents, media articles, national law national law • Informal/ off‐record leading to formal sources
Methods • Participant observation at business and civil society forums e.g Wind Energy Africa, IRP i f Wi d E Af i IRP 2020 hearings, civil society Energy Caucus, Africa Energy, Parliamentary portfolio committee meetings, media briefings, union committee meetings, media briefings, union meetings... • Site visits to Darling Wind Farm Sit i it t D li Wi d F • Visit to Eskom’s Mega Watt Park g
A political economy perspective p yp p A critical political economy of energy in South Africa, “studies and challenges the political and economic power structures that influence economic power structures that influence How (global and local) actors make energy decisions, how energy debates are framed more generall and e plores the deeper str ct res generally and explores the deeper structures behind energy production and consumption among different actors on different scales” (Bü h 2009 2) (Büscher 2009:2).