Jumbo Company update

Greece/ General Retailers

Investment Research

4 October 2011

Buy

Still resilient in the crisis – Macro issues remain a challenge

Recommendation unchanged

3.89

Share price: EUR closing price as of 03/10/2011

Target price: EUR

5.90 6.60

from Target Price: EUR Reuters/Bloomberg

BABr.AT/BELA GA

Daily avg. no. trad. sh. 12 mth Daily avg. trad. vol. 12 mth (m) Price high 12 mth (EUR) Price low 12 mth (EUR) Abs. perf. 1 mth Abs. perf. 3 mth Abs. perf. 12 mth

190,204 0.96 5.90 3.60 -0.3% -24.3% -20.9%

Market capitalisation (EURm) Current N° of shares (m) Free float

505 130 39%

Key financials (EUR) Sales (m) EBITDA (m) EBITDA margin EBIT (m) EBIT margin Net Profit (adj.)(m) ROCE Net debt/(cash) (m) Net Debt Equity Net Debt/EBITDA Int. cover(EBITDA/Fin.int) EV/Sales EV/EBITDA EV/EBITDA (adj.) EV/EBIT P/E (adj.) P/BV OpFCF yield Dividend yield EPS (adj.) BVPS DPS

06/11 490 135 27.6% 120 24.5% 95 17.1% (2) 0.0 0.0 (94.3) 1.3 4.9 4.9 5.5 7.1 1.3 18.3% 0.0% 0.73 4.02 0.00

06/12e 492 125 25.5% 109 22.2% 87 12.8% (10) 0.0 -0.1 (101.7) 1.0 3.8 3.8 4.4 5.8 0.9 16.8% 4.6% 0.67 4.45 0.18

06/13e 492 125 25.4% 108 21.9% 87 11.9% (18) 0.0 -0.1 (80.9) 1.0 3.8 3.8 4.4 5.8 0.8 16.2% 4.6% 0.67 4.86 0.18

Jumbo reported a strong set of FY10-11 results given the dismal trading conditions in the country. The company is set to continue its expansionary plans, scheduling the opening of 6 new stores in FY11-12 and aiming to grow its top line between 0% to 2%. We have factored in our forecasts the updated store rollout plans on however more conservative sales growth forecasts for both Greece and Cyprus. We have also adjusted our margin and net financials forecasts to better reflect current trends. Moreover, we include an extraordinary tax (also assumed for FY09-10 but not recorded until June 2011), as well as a new tax, which is announced and will be applied on owned property. Our FY11-12 our EPS forecasts is seen 1.2% above our earlier forecasts. Going forward though we have assumed a sustained challenging environment also through 2013, where we have downward revised our forecasts as a result of a weaker top line and a different timing of the payment of the windfall tax, keeping also a conservative view on the following years. 

FY:10-11 sales came in at EUR 490m (+0.5% YoY), EBITDA stood at EUR 135m (6.6% YoY), and net earnings reached EUR 94.6m (+19% YoY). Note that net earnings are not directly comparable as a special contribution tax amounting to EUR 20.7m was recorded in FY09-10 results. On a comparable basis, net earnings were down by 5% YoY.



Sales from the Greek operations retreated by 3% YoY, while Cyprus and Bulgaria exhibited impressive sales growth of 22.6% YoY and 35.8% YoY, respectively. Jumbo toy’s and baby products continue to represent a declining stake to total sales, in FY10-11, while seasonal products’ share was also affected negatively. Home products sales advanced by an impressive 15% YoY and stationary sales rose by 7% YoY.



Management will propose a capital return of EUR 0.17 per share and no dividend payment in the AGM to be held November 3. The ex-capital return date is set for rd December 23 , 2011.



Management stated recently that the two first months of the year, i.e. July and August were running at an above 2% top line growth rate, counting the opening of one new store in Bulgaria in July.



We have updated our store roll out assumptions to include 6 new stores in FY1112, as we had previously assumed 5 new stores. Nevertheless, we have trimmed our overall sales estimate as consumer sentiment is expected to further deteriorate in Greece, while we expect it to remain at low levels throughout 2012 and 2013.



Profitability in the current year should be aided by a lower than we had expected gross margin erosion, as well as positive financials. However we assume a fairly constant weak picture also in 2013. Current year EPS is seen above our earlier forecasts (by 1.2%), but next year EPS is now seen 18% lower vs. earlier forecasts.



Note that we have included a windfall tax in both years of c. EUR 9m and also a new tax to be applied in both years on owned property, which should weigh on Jumbo’s owned stores (estimated c. 35% of total square meters in Greece).



Our valuation returns a lower target price of EUR 5.90 per share, still quite higher compared to current price levels. We believe in Jumbo’s resilient model and future prospects coming from its expansion in the Balkans. Nevertheless, high uncertainty in the local environment and weakness in the retail sector remain an issue which enhances volatility. We reiterate our Buy rating.

6.5

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6.0 5.5 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 Σεπ 10

Οκτ 10

Νοε 10

Source: Factset

∆εκ 10

Ιαν 11

Φεβ 11

JUMBO

Μαρ 11

Απρ 11

Μαϊ 11

Ιουν 11

Ιουλ 11

Αυγ 11

Σεπ 11

Οκτ 11

Stoxx General Retailers (Rebased)

Shareholders: Vakakis Apostolos-Evangelos 27%; FMR

LLC 10%; Capital Research & Management Co 9%; For company description please see summary table footnote

Analyst(s):

Produced by:

Distributed by the Members of ESN (see last page of this report)

Natalia Svyrou-Svyriadi

+30 210 81 73 384 [email protected]

All ESN research is available on Bloomberg (“ESNR”), Thomson-Reuters, Capital IQ, TheMarkets.com, FactSet

Jumbo

CONTENTS Forecasts Revision ................................................................................................... 3 Revenues supported by roll-out plans – consumer sentiment expected to further deteriorate

3

Profitability aided by lower than expected gross margin erosion as well positive financials

3

Valuation & Rating .................................................................................................... 5 Target price settles at EUR 5.90/share

5

FY:10-11 Results Review ......................................................................................... 7 Sales ended flat despite the negative Greece impact

7

Profitability shows resilience

7

ESN Recommendation System............................................................................. 12 Stock Ratings........................................................................................................... 13

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Jumbo

Forecasts Revision Despite the dismal local economic conditions, the deteriorating consumer sentiment and the tumbling retail activity, Jumbo managed to retain a flat YoY top line performance, through its continuing store roll-outs, while also maintaining strong profitability. Overall, we have factored in our forecasts lower sales performance vs. previously anticipated, almost at flat levels despite the scheduled store openings, as we believe the local economic activity will remain under pressure throughout 2012 and 2013. We have slightly improved our gross margin assumptions, to mirror a higher than previously expected currency parity, while we have also pinned in positive net financials, as the group has turned to negative net debt levels and is enjoying high deposit rates in this tight banking environment. Our FY11-12 EPS forecast is seen at EUR 0.60 (from EUR 0.58 previously). Going forward though we have assumed a sustained challenging environment through 2013, where we have downward revised our forecasts, keeping also a conservative view on the following years. We believe in Jumbo’s resilient business model and efficient management, while the long term growth prospects of the group remain promising.

Revenues supported by roll-out plans – consumer sentiment expected to further deteriorate Management updated its store roll out plans, announcing the opening of 6 stores in FY1112 (vs. 5 announced previously). Two stores, one in Elefsina (of total surface 12.000sq.m) and one in Burgas, Bulgaria (of total surface 18.000sq.m) are already operating, two more, one in Giannitsa in N. Greece (of total surface 9.000sq.m) and one in Spata (of total surface 9.000sq.m) are expected by December, and two more are anticipated in 2H:11-12 in Bulgaria. Accordingly, we have updated our store roll out assumptions, as we had previously assumed 5 new stores. Nevertheless, we have trimmed our overall sales estimate as we have assumed higher negative like-for-like growth for both the current and the following year. Consumer sentiment is expected to further deteriorate in Greece, given the current circumstances, while we expect it to remain at low levels throughout 2012 and early 2013. We now expect FY11-12 top line growth in Greece of -2% YoY, in Cyprus of +7% YoY and in Bulgaria of +32% YoY. On the whole we estimate FY11-12 sales of EUR 492.5m, up by a marginal 0.5% YoY, calculating sales per effective selling capacity of -15% YoY, on our forecasts. For the following financial year (FY12-13), revenues are seen flat at EUR 492.5m. Going forward we keep our expansionary plans unchanged, expecting a total of 11 stores in Bulgaria (now 6), 4 in Cyprus (now 3) and 48 in Greece (now 45), by June 2014, as we see no significant expansion opportunities in Greece looking ahead.

Profitability aided by lower than expected gross margin erosion as well positive financials On the profitability front, we adjusted our gross margin estimate slightly higher at 52,1% (110bps YoY), as we assume a stronger currency EUR-USD than we previously expected. Still it remains lower vs. last year, driven by the persistence of challenging market conditions in Greece and the uncertainty surrounding the ‘new’ measures. Moreover, we still wee a rise in operating expenses due to the acceleration of the store roll-out plans. Our FY11-12 EBITDA forecast stands at EUR 125m, down 7% YoY and 0.5% above our earlier forecasts, on a respective margin of 25.5%. Further down, we have raised our financial income forecasts, now seeing positive net financials. Note that in our forecasts we have incorporated a windfall social contribution tax estimated at c. EUR 9m in the current year and the following year respectively. We have also added an extraordinary tax to be applied on owned property based on the square meters owned and the vicinity of the property. Though the details on the tax calculation and the owners to be burdened are not yet final, we estimate a cost of c. EUR 0.7m, assuming the average tax at EUR 4 per sq.m. (as defined by the government). Consequently, we see FY11-12 reported net profit at EUR Page 3

Jumbo

77m, indicating a 19% YoY drop (1.2% above our earlier forecasts) and FY12-13 net profit at EUR 77.6m (+1% YoY). Table 1. IBG 2012-14 forecasts

# of Stores year end # of Stores Greece # of Stores Cyprus # of Stores Bulgaria New selling capacity (sq.m.) Closed selling capacity (sq.m.) Net selling capacity (sq.m.) Effective selling capacity (sq.m.) Sales per effective Selling capacity (EUR) YoY Greece Sales Cyprus Sales Bulgaria Sales Sales YoY Gross Profit Gross margin Other Income SGA Expenses Greece EBITDA Cyprus EBITDA Bulgaria EBITDA EBITDA YoY EBITDA margin EBIT YoY EBIT margin Net Earnings YoY Net margin

2010

2011

2012f

2013f

2014f

45 41 2 2 10,000 0 228,767 224,600 2,170 -1.4% 430.4 42.3 14.6 487.3 4.2% 263.6 54.1% 2.7 121.6 122.0 17.4 5.3 144.7 3.7% 29.7% 131.8 2.8% 27.0% 79.2 -17.2% 16.3%

52 44 3 5 49,000 0 277,767 257,017 1,906 -12.1% 418.3 51.9 19.8 490.0 0.5% 260.7 53.2% 2.8 128.3 108.6 20.0 6.6 135.1 -6.6% 27.6% 119.9 -9.1% 24.5% 94.6 19.4% 19.3%

58 47 3 8 46,500 0 324,267 306,142 1,609 -15.6% 410.9 55.5 26.1 492.5 0.5% 256.6 52.1% 2.8 134.0 94.5 21.3 9.5 125.4 -7.2% 25.5% 109.1 -8.9% 22.2% 77.3 -18.2% 15.7%

61 47 4 10 10,200 0 334,467 330,375 1,491 -7.3% 400.4 63.3 28.8 492.5 0.0% 256.6 52.1% 2.8 134.3 90.7 24.2 10.2 125.0 -0.3% 25.4% 107.7 -1.4% 21.9% 77.9 0.8% 15.8%

63 48 4 11 13,500 0 347,967 342,821 1,449 -2.8% 398.9 65.0 33.0 496.9 0.9% 258.9 52.1% 3.0 134.4 91.8 24.4 11.3 127.5 2.0% 25.7% 109.3 1.5% 22.0% 86.5 11.0% 17.4%

Source: The Company, IBG

Table 2. P&L Forecasts Revision

Revenues Gross Profit Gross Margin

487.3 263.6 54.1%

2011 Actual 490.0 260.7 53.2%

EBITDA EBITDA Margin

144.7 29.7%

135.1 27.6%

-6.6%

4.1%

125.4 25.5%

-7.2%

-0.5%

Net Profit Net Margin

79.2 16.3%

94.6 19.3%

19.4%

21.7%

77.3 15.7%

-18.2%

1.9%

2010

0.5% -1.1%

Actual vs. Exp. 0.1% 0.9%

2012f New 492.5 256.6 52.1%

YoY

0.5% -1.6%

New vs. Old -3.7% -1.2%

2013f New 492.5 256.6 52.1%

YoY

0.0% 0.0%

New vs. Old -9.0% -7.6%

125.0 25.4%

-0.3%

-9.1%

77.9 15.8%

0.8%

-17.6%

YoY

Source: The Company, IBG

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Jumbo

Valuation & Rating Target price settles at EUR 5.90/share We keep our cautious stance, as we strongly believe that the local environment will remain challenging throughout 2012 and 2013, on sustained uncertainty, continuous implementation of new tightening measures and a continuously weakening consumption environment. At this time, we remain positive only on the long-term prospects from the development of the Balkans’ operations. Should the tide turn, Jumbo could benefit, capitalising on its larger network. We have fine-tuned our 10-year DCF valuation model rolling over our valuation to FY12. We have assumed a cost of equity equal to 12.3%, reflecting the uncertainty surrounding the Greek economic environment and the deterioration of the local retail sector. We have retained our cost of debt assumption equal to 6.0% (after tax) as the cost of the new loans will be higher in general, while we stick to our assumption for 5% cost of debt for the years 2016-2021. Finally, we have assigned a perpetuity growth of 0.5%, and assumed optimal gearing at 20%. Our WACC stands at 11.0% in the first stage, falling to 10.8% in the second stage. Our DCF model returns a target price of EUR 5.90 per share (vs. EUR 6.60/share previously), indicating a 51% upside potential from current price levels. We retain our Buy rating. However, we cannot rule out further volatility driven by the uncertainty in the local market.

Table 3. Key financial assumptions of our 10-year period DCF model

Sales EBITDA EBITDA margin (-) taxes (-) Capital Expenditure (-) Working Capital Needs Free Cash Flow to the Firm (FCFF)

2012f

2013f

2014f

2015f

2016f

2017f

2018f

2019f

2020f

2021f

492.5 125.4 25.5% -33.4 -55.0 -8.5 28.5

492.5 125.0 25.4% -32.1 -50.0 -13.5 29.5

496.9 127.5 25.7% -22.2 -40.0 -8.2 57.1 1st stage

502.9 130.9 26.0% -22.6 -36.4 -9.2 62.6

515.4 134.6 26.1% -22.9 -21.5 -8.4 81.8

528.3 138.1 26.1% -23.6 -22.6 -11.6 80.3 2nd stage

541.5 141.7 26.2% -24.3 -23.9 -9.1 84.5

555.1 145.5 26.2% -25.0 -22.5 -9.4 88.5

568.9 149.2 26.2% -25.8 -23.9 -9.7 89.8

583.2 153.1 26.3% -26.6 -25.5 -13.9 87.2

Cost of Equity Cost of Debt Target Capital Gearing WACC Perpetuity Growth Sum of FCF’s (11e-15f) Sum of FCF’s 2nd stage (16f-21f) FCF to perpetuity Total FCF (+) cash & market value of investments (-) minorities: (-) current borrowings Value to Firm (EUR m) Value Per Share (EUR) Upside / (Downside) potential

12.3% 6.0% 20% 11.0%

12.3% 5.0% 20% 10.8% 0.5%

200.9 210.6 335.8 747.2 171.6 -155.7 763.1 5.9 51%

Source: IBG

Jumbo trades 6.6x its FY:11-12 expected reported earnings, while at target price it trades 9.8x P/E vs. a historical average of 11x. The stock has lost 21.3% YtD, outperforming the General Index by 43%. Page 5

Jumbo

Table 4. Peer Group Valuation Country Mkt Cap P/E 11 P/E 12 Value Retailers Sears Holdings Corp. Target Corp. Big Lots Inc. Family Dollar Stores Inc. Dollar Tree Inc. Game Retailers Games Workshop Group PLC GAME Group PLC Mattel Inc. Hasbro Inc. Total Weighted Average Euro STOXX / Retail - SS Jumbo (IBG) Premium/Discount vs. weighted peer group Premium/Discount vs. benchmark index

US US US US US

4,611 24,315 1,646 4,530 6,772

GB GB US US

154 90 6,476 3,238

EU GR

EBITDA EPS CAGR EV/EBITDA EV/EBITDA Margins 10-12e 11 12 11-12e

-31.7 11.3 11.7 16.0 18.7

-39.3 11.1 10.1 13.7 16.0

6.1% 8.5% 18.7% 20.1%

11.1 6.7 11.7 10.6 12.9 111,615 13.2 505,5 7.1

10.5 4.3 10.6 9.1 11.8 11.7 6.6

-44% -46%

YtD %

9.5 6.3 4.9 7.6 9.3

9.8 6.1 4.3 6.9 8.2

2.1% 10.5% 8.5% 9.7% 14.5%

-21.5% -19.7% 10.6% 1.7% 32.8%

6.2% -21.3% 13.5% 16.9% 11.1% 2.4% -2.1%

4.9 -1.0 7.1 6.2 7.1

4.4 -1.0 6.5 5.6 6.8

18.0% 3.5% 19.4% 18.8% 11.8%

-0.1% -68.2% -0.4% -31.5%

5.0

4.0

26.5%

-45%

-13.3%

-30%

-42%

14.7%

-44%

-4.6%

-15.8% -21.3%

Source: Factset, IBG

Page 6

Jumbo

FY:10-11 Results Review Jumbo released a strong set of FY:10-11 results despite the challenging local macroeconomic environment. Results were above consensus and our forecasts on the profitability front. Specifically, sales came in at EUR 490m (+0.5% YoY, 1% above consensus), EBITDA stood at EUR 135m (-6.6% YoY, 5% above consensus), and net earnings reached EUR 94.6m (+19% YoY, 11% above consensus). Note that net profits are not directly comparable as a special tax contribution amounting to EUR 20.7m was recorded in FY:09-10 results. On a comparable basis, net profits were down by 5% YoY. Management also stated recently that the two first months of the year, i.e. July and August were running at an above 2% top line growth rate, counting the opening of one new store in Bulgaria in July. For the current financial year (FY11-12) management is estimating top line growth between 0-2%.

Sales ended flat despite the negative Greece impact Sales from the Greek operations retreated by 3% YoY, while Cyprus and Bulgaria exhibited impressive sales growth of 22.6% YoY and 35.8% YoY respectively. Quarterly revenues in Greece were up 23% YoY, driven by the later Easter period sales (in 4Q:10-11 compared to 3Q:09-10). Revenues from Cyprus and Bulgaria in the quarter stood at +41% YoY and +52% YoY respectively. On our numbers Greece posted negative like-for-like growth in FY:10-11, weighing on the group’s sales growth per effective selling capacity, which stood at a negative c. 12% YoY. Group sales stood at EUR 490m, up by 0.5% YoY. Jumbo toy’s and baby products continue to represent a declining stake to total sales, in FY:10-11, while seasonal products’ share was also affected negatively. Home products sales advance by an impressive 15% YoY and stationary sales also rose by 7% YoY. Table 5. Jumbo FY:10-11 sales per product category

Toys % of total Baby apparel % of total

FY:11

ΥοΥ

FY:10

156.7

-4.3%

163.8

-6.8%

62.6

32.0% 58.4 11.9%

Stationary

37.2

% of total

7.6%

Seasonal / Other % of total Home products

33.6%

124.0

12.9% 6.9%

7.1% -2.6%

25.3% 113.7

% of total

23.2%

Total Sales

490.0

34.8 127.3 26.1%

15.0%

98.9 20.3%

0.5%

487.3

Source: The Company, IBG

Profitability shows resilience Gross profits settled at EUR 260.7m (-1.1% YoY) on a gross margin of 53.2% vs. 54.1% last year (90bps drop). The drop in the gross margin was much less than initially expected aided by a stronger than expected currency and lower transportation costs. It is worth noting that Jumbo did not pass on the higher prices from the VAT increases in Greece to consumers. Furthermore, operating expenses surged by 5.5%, reflecting the increased costs related to the new stores. The EBITDA dropped 6.6% YoY at EUR 135m, mirroring a decline in Greece’s profitability (-11%), while Cyprus and Bulgaria recorded a YoY increase (15% and 23% respectively) in their EBITDA levels. Moreover, profitability was enhanced by positive

Page 7

Jumbo

net financials, stemming from high interest income from group time deposits, as well as no extraordinary taxes recorded in the year. Group net profit stood at EUR 94.6m, up by 19.4% YoY. Recall though that FY:09-10 was burdened by one-off taxes of EUR 20.7m, imposed by the government on the companies’ profits. On a comparable basis, i.e. adjusting for the one-off taxes, FY:10-11 net profit dropped by 5.4% YoY. Table 6. Jumbo quarterly P&L evolution 4Q:10-11

3Q:10-11

2Q:10-11

1Q:10-11

4Q:09-10

3Q: 09-10

2Q:09-10

1Q:09-10

Greece Sales

100.3

69.8

146.6

101.6

81.1

91.4

153.5

104.5

Cyprus Sales Bulgaria Sales

12.4 4.6

9.6 3.2

18.9 8.2

11.1 3.8

8.7 3.0

8.2 2.9

16.0 6.1

9.4 2.6

Group Sales YoY

117.3 26.3%

82.5 -19.4%

173.7 -1.1%

116.5 -0.1%

92.8 -16.5%

102.4 27.1%

175.6 4.2%

116.5 8.4%

Greece COGS Cyprus COGS

40.9 6.0

30.0 4.4

68.6 9.7

54.5 5.7

31.2 4.3

40.5 4.0

70.3 7.6

53.7 4.9

Bulgaria COGS Gross Profit

2.2 68.2

1.5 46.7

3.8 91.6

1.9 54.3

1.5 55.7

1.5 56.4

2.8 94.8

1.3 56.6

YoY Gross margin

22.4% 58.1%

-17.3% 56.5%

-3.5% 52.7%

-4.0% 46.7%

-15.6% 60.0%

23.7% 55.1%

5.4% 54.0%

7.5% 48.6%

Other income Greece & Other SGA's

0.9 24.7

0.5 27.6

0.9 37.4

0.5 28.9

0.7 22.0

0.7 35.2

0.9 37.8

0.5 31.7

Cyprus SGA's Bulgaria SGA's

1.2 1.2

1.2 0.8

2.7 1.1

1.0 0.7

0.1 0.4

1.2 1.2

2.5 0.9

1.2 0.4

SGA's on sales

27.1 23.1%

29.5 35.8%

41.2 23.7%

30.6 26.2%

22.6 24.3%

37.5 36.7%

41.2 23.5%

33.2 28.5%

Greece & Other EBITDA 35.6 Cyprus EBITDA 5.2

12.8 4.0

41.5 6.5

18.7 4.3

31.6 4.4

19.3 3.2

48.9 6.1

22.2 3.6

Bulgaria EBITDA EBITDA

1.2 42.0

0.9 17.7

3.3 51.3

1.2 24.3

1.3 37.4

0.4 22.9

2.5 57.5

1.0 26.9

YoY EBITDA margin

12.4% 35.8%

-22.9% 21.4%

-10.9% 29.5%

-9.8% 20.8%

-7.3% 40.2%

11.5% 22.4%

6.4% 32.8%

8.9% 23.1%

D&A Greece & Other D&A Cyprus

3.1 0.4

3.1 0.3

3.0 0.4

3.0 0.2

3.0 0.2

2.9 0.2

2.6 0.2

2.7 0.2

D&A Bulgaria Total D&A

0.5 4.0

0.5 3.9

0.4 3.9

0.3 3.5

0.2 3.5

0.2 3.4

0.2 3.0

0.1 3.0

EBIT YoY

38.0 12.1%

13.7 -29.8%

47.4 -13.1%

20.8 -13.0%

33.9 -9.1%

19.5 10.9%

54.5 6.4%

23.9 8.2%

EBIT margin Net Financials +/(-)

32.4% 1.3

16.6% -0.7

27.3% 0.5

17.8% 0.3

36.5% -0.3

19.1% -0.2

31.0% -0.3

20.5% -1.3

EBT YoY

39.3 16.8%

13.0 -32.6%

47.9 -11.6%

21.1 -6.6%

33.6 -8.2%

19.4 17.8%

54.2 8.7%

22.6 11.0%

EBT margin Tax Expenses

33.5% 8.9

15.8% 2.7

27.6% 10.6

18.1% 4.5

36.2% 18.8

18.9% 4.4

30.9% 22.3

19.4% 5.0

Net Earnings YoY

30.3 103.9%

10.3 -31.0%

37.3 17.2%

16.6 -5.1%

14.9 -46.3%

15.0 18.5%

31.9 -19.9%

17.5 12.0%

Net margin

25.8%

12.5%

21.5%

14.3%

16.0%

14.6%

18.1%

15.0%

Source: The Company, IBG * Note that 2Q:09-10 includes windfall taxes of EUR 9.8m and 4Q:09-10 includes windfall tax of EUR 10.9m

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Jumbo

Table 7. FY:10-11 / 4Q:10-11 P&L FY:10-11

YoY

Greece & Other

418.3

Cyprus Bulgaria

51.9 19.8

Group Revenues Greece & Other

490.0 108.7

0.5% -11.0%

Cyprus Bulgaria

19.9 6.5

15.2% 22.9%

Group EBITDA EBITDA Margin

135.1 27.6%

-6.6%

Net Profit * Net Profit Margin

94.6 19.3%

19.4%

Actual vs. IBG

Actual vs. IBG

4Q:10-11

YoY

-2.8%

100.3

23.7%

22.6% 35.8%

12.4 4.6

41.8% 52.3%

117.3 35.7

26.3% 12.7%

5.1 1.2

16.6% -8.6%

4.1%

42.0 8.6%

12.4%

14.7%

9.1%

30.3 6.2%

103.9%

35.0%

0.1%

0.5%

Source: The Company, IBG * Note that FY:09-10 results include windfall taxes of EUR 20.7m

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Jumbo: Summary tables PROFIT & LOSS (EURm) Sales Cost of Sales & Operating Costs Non Recurrent Expenses/Income EBITDA EBITDA (adj.)* Depreciation EBITA EBITA (adj)* Amortisations and Write Downs EBIT EBIT (adj.)* Net Financial Interest Other Financials Associates Other Non Recurrent Items Earnings Before Tax (EBT) Tax Tax rate Discontinued Operations Minorities Net Profit (reported) Net Profit (adj.)

06/2008 404 -278 0.0 126 126 -9.5 116 116 0.0 116 116 -5.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 111 -28.2 25.5% 0.0 0.0 83 83

06/2009 468 -328 0.0 140 140 -11.4 128 128 0.0 128 128 -4.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 123 -27.5 22.3% 0.0 0.0 96 96

06/2010 487 -343 0.0 145 145 -12.9 132 132 0.0 132 132 -2.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 130 -50.5 38.9% 0.0 0.0 79 100

06/2011 490 -355 0.0 135 135 -15.3 120 120 0.0 120 120 1.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 121 -26.7 22.0% 0.0 0.0 95 95

06/2012e 492 -367 0.0 125 125 -16.2 109 109 0.0 109 109 1.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 110 -33.4 30.3% 0.0 0.0 77 87

06/2013e 492 -367 0.0 125 125 -17.4 108 108 0.0 108 108 1.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 109 -32.1 29.4% 0.0 0.0 77 87

CASH FLOW (EURm) Cash Flow from Operations before change in NWC Change in Net Working Capital Cash Flow from Operations Capex Net Financial Investments Free Cash Flow Dividends Other (incl. Capital Increase & share buy backs) Change in Net Debt NOPLAT

06/2008 92.0 -42.3 49.8 -51.8 -0.2 -2.2 -19.4 -0.4 -22 87

06/2009 107 -22.8 84.4 -53.8 -0.1 30.4 -24.2 7.8 14 100

06/2010 92.2 8.1 100 -70.5 0.1 29.8 -27.9 55.9 58 80

06/2011 110 13.7 124 -55.1 -10.6 57.9 -24.5 -14.5 19 93

06/2012e 93.2 -8.5 84.7 -55.0 0.0 29.7 0.0 -22.1 8 76

06/2013e 94.5 -13.5 81.0 -50.0 0.0 31.0 -23.1 0.0 8 76

BALANCE SHEET & OTHER ITEMS (EURm) Net Tangible Assets Net Intangible Assets (incl.Goodwill) Net Financial Assets & Other Total Fixed Assets Net Working Capital Net Capital Invested Group Shareholders Equity o/w own Shareholders Equity Net Debt Provisions Other Net Liabilities or Assets Net Capital Employed

06/2008 237 8.8 2.9 249 158 407 285 285 88.2 0 35 407

06/2009 280 8.4 3.0 292 180 472 356 356 74.3 0 42 472

06/2010 338 8.0 2.9 349 175 524 452 452 16.5 0 55 524

06/2011 378 7.6 13.5 400 162 562 523 523 -2.4 0 41 562

06/2012e 418 7.2 13.5 438 171 609 578 578 -10.0 0 41 609

06/2013e 451 6.8 13.5 471 184 655 632 632 -17.9 0 41 655

GROWTH & MARGINS Sales growth EBITDA (adj.)* growth EBITA (adj.)* growth EBIT (adj)*growth Net Profit growth EPS adj. growth DPS adj. growth EBITDA margin EBITDA (adj)* margin EBITA margin EBITA (adj)* margin EBIT margin EBIT (adj)* margin

06/2008 17.9% 19.0% 20.0% 20.0% 21.5% 21.5% 25.0% 31.1% 31.1% 28.7% 28.7% 28.7% 28.7%

06/2009 15.8% 11.1% 10.4% 10.4% 16.0% 16.0% 15.0% 29.8% 29.8% 27.4% 27.4% 27.4% 27.4%

06/2010 4.2% 3.7% 2.8% 2.8% 4.4% -1.2% -17.8% 29.7% 29.7% 27.0% 27.0% 27.0% 27.0%

06/2011 0.5% -6.6% -9.1% -9.1% -5.4% -6.6% -chg 27.6% 27.6% 24.5% 24.5% 24.5% 24.5%

06/2012e 0.5% -7.2% -8.9% -8.9% -8.4% -8.4% +chg 25.5% 25.5% 22.2% 22.2% 22.2% 22.2%

06/2013e 0.0% -0.3% -1.4% -1.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 25.4% 25.4% 21.9% 21.9% 21.9% 21.9%

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Jumbo: Summary tables RATIOS Net Debt/Equity

06/2008 0.3

06/2009 0.2

06/2010 0.0

06/2011 0.0

06/2012e 0.0

06/2013e 0.0

0.7 23.4

0.5 28.5

0.1 70.5

0.0 nm

-0.1 nm

-0.1 nm

Capex/D&A

543.6%

471.4%

546.5%

360.3%

339.1%

288.1%

Capex/Sales

12.8%

11.5%

14.5%

11.2%

11.2%

10.2%

NWC/Sales

39.2%

38.6%

35.9%

33.1%

34.7%

37.4%

ROE (average)

32.6%

29.9%

24.7%

19.4%

15.7%

14.4%

ROCE (adj.) WACC

21.4% 11.0%

21.2% 11.0%

15.4% 11.0%

17.1% 11.0%

12.8% 11.0%

11.9% 11.0%

1.9

1.9

1.4

1.5

1.2

1.1

06/2008 121.2

06/2009 121.2

06/2010 128.2

06/2011 129.9

06/2012e 129.9

06/2013e 129.9

EPS (reported) EPS (adj.)

0.68 0.68

0.79 0.79

0.62 0.78

0.73 0.73

0.59 0.67

0.59 0.67

BVPS

2.35

2.93

3.48

4.02

4.45

4.86

DPS

0.20

0.23

0.19

0.00

0.18

0.18

06/2008 2.9 9.3

06/2009 2.0 6.6

06/2010 1.4 4.6

06/2011 1.3 4.9

06/2012e 1.0 3.8

06/2013e 1.0 3.8

Net Debt/EBITDA Interest cover (EBITDA/Fin.interest)

ROCE (adj.)/WACC PER SHARE DATA (EUR)*** Average diluted number of shares

VALUATION EV/Sales EV/EBITDA EV/EBITDA (adj.)*

9.3

6.6

4.6

4.9

3.8

3.8

EV/EBITA

10.0

7.2

5.0

5.5

4.4

4.4

EV/EBITA (adj.)*

10.0

7.2

5.0

5.5

4.4

4.4

EV/EBIT EV/EBIT (adj.)*

10.0 10.0

7.2 7.2

5.0 5.0

5.5 5.5

4.4 4.4

4.4 4.4

P/E (adj.)

13.1

8.8

6.4

7.1

5.8

5.8

3.8

2.4

1.4

1.3

0.9

0.8

Total Yield Ratio

2.2%

3.3%

3.8%

0.0%

4.6%

EV/CE OpFCF yield

2.9 4.6%

2.0 10.0%

1.3 15.4%

1.2 18.3%

0.8 16.8%

0.7 16.2%

P/BV

OpFCF/EV

4.3%

9.2%

15.1%

18.7%

17.6%

17.3%

Payout ratio

29.4%

29.1%

30.6%

0.0%

30.0%

30.0%

2.2%

3.3%

3.8%

0.0%

4.6%

4.6%

06/2008 8.9

06/2009 7.0

06/2010 5.0

06/2011 5.2

06/2012e 3.9

06/2013e 3.9

Dividend yield (gross) EV AND MKT CAP (EURm) Price** (EUR) Outstanding number of shares for main stock Total Market Cap Net Debt o/w Cash & Marketable Securities (-) o/w Gross Debt (+) Other EV components Enterprise Value (EV adj.) Source: Company, Marfin Analysis estimates.

121

121

130

130

130

130

1,081

846

649

676

505

505

88.2

74.3

16.5

-2.4

-10.0

-17.9

-30.5 119 -3 1,167

-110 184 -3 917

-141 158 -3 663

-158 156 -13 660

-159 149 -13 482

-162 144 -13 474

Notes * Where EBITDA (adj.) or EBITA (adj) or EBIT (adj.)= EBITDA (or EBITA or EBIT) +/- Non Recurrent Expenses/Income **Price (in local currency): Fiscal year end price for Historical Years and Current Price for current and forecasted years ***EPS (adj.) diluted= Net Profit (adj.)/Avg DIL. Ord. (+ Ord. equivalent) Shs. EPS (reported) = Net Profit reported/Avg DIL. Ord. (+ Ord. equivalent) Shs. Sector: General Retailers/Broadline Retailers Company Description: Jumbo is the largest toys/babies apparel/bookstore/seasonal products retailer in the Greek market. The company generates strong growth rates, above sector averages, based on its geographical sales network expansion strategy, wide assortment of products and competitive pricing policy, within pleasing shopping environments. Jumbo continuously enriches its product range, capitalising on its experience and excellent market positioning in order to smooth out seasonality, as well as coping with the stability in the toy market and increasing clientele. The management has communicated expansion in its network targeting 63-65 stores in Greece, Cyprus and Bulgaria in the medium term.

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ESN Recommendation System The ESN Recommendation System is Absolute. It means that each stock is rated on the basis of a total return, measured by the upside potential (including dividends and capital reimbursement) over a 12 month time horizon. The ESN spectrum of recommendations (or ratings) for each stock comprises 5 categories: Buy, Accumulate (or Add), Hold, Reduce and Sell (in short: B, A, H, R, S). Furthermore, in specific cases and for a limited period of time, the analysts are allowed to rate the stocks as Rating Suspended (RS) or Not Rated (NR), as explained below. Meaning of each recommendation or rating: •

Buy: the stock is expected to generate total return of over 20% during the next 12 months time horizon



Accumulate: the stock is expected to generate total return of 10% to 20% during the next 12 months time horizon



Hold: the stock is expected to generate total return of 0% to 10% during the next 12 months time horizon.



Reduce: the stock is expected to generate total return of 0% to -10% during the next 12 months time horizon



Sell: the stock is expected to generate total return under -10% during the next 12 months time horizon



Rating Suspended: the rating is suspended due to a capital operation (takeover bid, SPO, …) where the issuer of the document (a partner of ESN) or a related party of the issuer is or could be involved or to a change of analyst covering the stock



Not Rated: there is no rating for a company being floated (IPO) by the issuer of the document (a partner of ESN) or a related party of the issuer

History of ESN Recommendation System Since 18 October 2004, the Members of ESN are using an Absolute Recommendation System (before was a Relative Rec. System) to rate any single stock under coverage. Since 4 August 2008, the ESN Rec. System has been amended as follow. •

Time horizon changed to 12 months (it was 6 months)



Recommendations Total Return Range changed as below: TODAY SELL

REDUCE

-10%

HOLD

0%

ACCUMULATE

10%

BUY

20%

BEFORE SELL

-15%

REDUCE

HOLD

0%

ACCUMULATE

5%

BUY

15%

Disclosure Appendix The information and opinions in this report were prepared by Investment Bank of Greece, which is regulated by the Bank of Greece (License No: 52/2/17.12.99) and by the Hellenic Capital Market Commission. Investment Bank of Greece has not entered any agreement with the subject companies for the execution of this analysis. This report is for informative purposes only. Under no circumstances is it to be used or considered as an offer to sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy, any security. While the information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. In producing its research reports, members of Investment Bank of Greece research department may have received assistance from the subject company(ies) referred to in this report. Any such assistance may have included access to sites of the issuers, visits to certain operations of the subject company(ies), meetings with management, employees or other parties associated with the subject company(ies) and the handing by them of historical data regarding the subject company(ies) (financial statements and other financial data), as well as of all publicly available information regarding strategy and financial targets. Investment Bank of Greece research

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personnel are prohibited from accepting payment or reimbursement of travel expenses from site visits to subject companies. It should be presumed that the author(s) of this report, in most cases, has had discussions with the subject company(ies) to ensure factual accuracy prior to publication. All opinions, projections and estimates constitute the judgment of the author as of the date of the report and are given in good faith, but are subject to change without notice. Prices and availability of financial instruments also are subject to change without notice. Investment Bank of Greece or one of its affiliates or persons connected with it may from time to time buy and sell securities referred herein. Although Investment Bank of Greece does not set a predetermined frequency for publication, if this is a fundamental research report, it is the intention of Investment Bank of Greece to provide research coverage of the subject company(ies), including in response to news affecting this issuer, subject to applicable quiet periods and capacity constraints. Investment Bank of Greece may from time to time perform investment banking or other services for, or solicit investment banking or other business from, any company mentioned in this report. Investment Bank of Greece does and seeks to do business with companies covered in their research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firms may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Securities referred to in this research report are subject to investment risks, including the possible loss of the principal amount invested. This report is intended for professional investors only and it is not to be reproduced or copied or reprinted or transmitted for any purpose without permission. We certify that this report has been published in accordance with our conflict management policy and guidelines. According to Investment Bank of Greece policies, the Analysis Department of Investment Bank of Greece is bound by confidentiality, with the exception of data allowed to be published in accordance with the applicable laws. Investment Bank of Greece relies on information barriers to control the flow of information in one or more areas within Investment Bank of Greece organization. The communication between the Analysis Department of Investment Bank of Greece and the other departments of the aforementioned company is restricted by Chinese Walls set between the different departments, so that Investment Bank of Greece can abide by the provisions regarding confidential information and market abuse.

Analyst Certification The following analysts: Natalia Svyrou-Svyriadi hereby certify that the views about the companies and securities contained in this report accurately reflect their personal views and that no part of their compensation was or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views in this report. The analysts mentioned above who prepared this report have the below mentioned financial interests in the companies covered in this report……none……

Important Regulatory Disclosures on Subject Company The information and opinions in this report were prepared by INVESTMENT BANK of GREECE, which is member of the Athens Exchange S.A. and regulated by the Bank of Greece (License No: 52/2/17.12.99) and by the Hellenic Capital Market Commission. The compensation of the research analysts, strategists, or research associates principally responsible for the preparation of this research report may depend on various factors such as quality of work, stock picking, client feedback and overall firm profitability.

Stock Ratings You should carefully read the definitions of all ratings used in the research report. Moreover, you should carefully read the entire research report to obtain a clear view of the analyst’s opinions and not infer its contents from the rating alone.

Marfin Analysis Research Rating Distribution Data current as of 30/09/2011 Marfin Analysis Total Coverage % of companies in each rating category that are investment banking clients Note that we have suspended our rating on 2 companies Retail % of companies in each rating category that are investment banking clients

Buy 39% 4%

Accumulate 22% 0%

Hold 39% 4%

Reduce 0% 0%

Sell 0% 0%

67% 0%

0% 0%

33% 0%

0% 0%

0% 0%

Regulatory Disclosures on Subject Companies 1. As of the date mentioned on the first page of this report, Investment Bank of Greece (or any of its affiliated companies) owns 5% or more of a class of common equity securities in the following companies mentioned in this report: Vivartia, Attica Group, Blue Star Ferries, Hygeia Group, SingularLogic 2. As of the date mentioned on the first page of this report, the following subject companies mentioned in this report own 5% or more of a class of common equity securities of Investment Bank of Greece (or any of its affiliated companies): Marfin Popular Bank 3. Investment Bank of Greece acts as a market maker for the following securities of the subject companies mentioned in this report: Alpha Bank, ATEbank, Bank of Cyprus, Coca Cola Hellenic, EFG Eurobank, Ellaktor, GEK TERNA, Hellenic Exchanges, Hellenic Postbank, Intralot, Mytilineos, National Bank, OPAP, OTE, Piraeus Bank, PPC 4. Within the last 12 months, Investment Bank of Greece has provided advisory services to the following companies mention in this report: Hellenic Postbank 5. Within the last 12 months, Investment Bank of Greece had a contractual relationship or have received compensation for financial advisory services from the following subject companies mentioned in this report: Vivartia, GEK TERNA, Hellenic Postbank, Motor Oil, Euroline, Interinvest, Vivere, Hygeia Group

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Rating History 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14.

09/09/2011 Buy, Target Price EUR 6.60 08/06/2011 Buy, Target Price EUR 6.60 02/05/2011 Accumulate, Target Price EUR 6.20 16/02/2011 Accumulate, Target Price EUR 6.20 26/01/2011 Accumulate, Target Price EUR 6.20 16/11/2010 Accumulate, Target Price EUR 6.20 12/10/2010 Accumulate, Target Price EUR 6.20 30/09/2010 Hold, Target Price EUR 5.90 16/09/2010 Hold, Target Price EUR 5.90 25/05/2010 Hold, Target Price EUR 5.90 14/05/2010 Hold, Target Price EUR 7.00 08/04/2010 Hold, Target Price EUR 7.00 03/03/2010 Hold, Target Price EUR 7.90 24/02/2010 Accumulate, Target Price EUR 10.80 7.0 6.5 6.0 5.5 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 Σεπ 10 Οκτ 10 Νοε 10 ∆εκ 10 Ιαν 11 Φεβ 11 Μαρ 11

Price history Buy

Απρ 11

Μαϊ 11

Ιουν 11

Ιουλ 11

Αυγ 11 Σεπ 11 Οκτ 11

Target price history Accumulate

Hold

Reduce

Sell

Not rated

Source: Factset & ESN, price data adjusted for stock splits. This chart shows Marfin Analysis continuing coverage of this stock; the current analyst may or may not have covered it over the entire period.

Risks to our forecasts and valuation •

FX risks due to high dependence on purchases from Asia. Recall that the company will seek to adjust the product mix in order to offset any possible negative impact in profitability in case of adverse FX movements.



Unfavourable macroeconomic trends that may have a negative impact in the company’s financial performance, since as a retail company Jumbo is affected by factors that influence consumer behaviour.



Difficult business conditions and a stricter competitive environment that could negatively affect the cash flow discipline of previous years.



Possible delays in shipments of toys in China on the back of stricter safety controls.



The high dependence of the company’s structure from the Chairman & CEO and major shareholder of the group.



Oil price fluctuations that in turn affect the cost of toys manufacturing and freight costs, increasing input prices for the company.



Stock overhang concerns: Jumbo’s major shareholder, Mr. Vakakis, has proceeded in various placements in the past. However, all stock sales have taken place at substantially lower stock prices and do not seem to have an overhang impact over time. We would not exclude further placements in the future.

Additional disclosures 1. Additional note to our U.S. readers: This document may be distributed in the United States solely to “major US institutional investors” as defined in Rule 15a-6 under the US Securities Exchange Act of 1934. Each person that receives a copy, by acceptance thereof, represents and agrees that he/she will not distribute or otherwise make available this document to any other person. 2. All prices and valuation multiples are based on the closing of ATHEX’s last session prior to the issue of this report, unless otherwise indicated. 3. Our research reports are available upon request at www.ibg.gr, on Bloomberg’s IBGR and ESNR functions and on Thomson Reuters website. 4. Additional information is available upon request.

Page 14

Disclaimer: These reports have been prepared and issued by the Members of European Securities Network LLP (‘ESN’). ESN, its Members and their affiliates (and any director, officer or employee thereof), are neither liable for the proper and complete transmission of these reports nor for any delay in their receipt. Any unauthorised use, disclosure, copying, distribution, or taking of any action in reliance on these reports is strictly prohibited. The views and expressions in the reports are expressions of opinion and are given in good faith, but are subject to change without notice. These reports may not be reproduced in whole or in part or passed to third parties without permission. The information herein was obtained from various sources. ESN, its Members and their affiliates (and any director, officer or employee thereof) do not guarantee their accuracy or completeness, and neither ESN, nor its Members, nor its Members’ affiliates (nor any director, officer or employee thereof) shall be liable in respect of any errors or omissions or for any losses or consequential losses arising from such errors or omissions. Neither the information contained in these reports nor any opinion expressed constitutes an offer, or an invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any securities or any options, futures or other derivatives related to such securities (‘related investments’). These reports are prepared for the clients of the Members of ESN only. They do not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific person who may receive any of these reports. 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Any investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to relevant persons and will be engaged in only with relevant persons. The distribution of this document in other jurisdictions or to residents of other jurisdictions may also be restricted by law, and persons into whose possession this document comes should inform themselves about, and observe, any such restrictions. By accepting this report you agree to be bound by the foregoing instructions. You shall indemnify ESN, its Members and their affiliates (and any director, officer or employee thereof) against any damages, claims, losses, and detriments resulting from or in connection with the unauthorized use of this document. For disclosure upon “conflicts of interest” on the companies under coverage by all the ESN Members and on each “company recommendation history”, please visit the ESN website (www.esnpartnership.eu) For additional information and individual disclaimer please refer to www.esnpartnership.eu and to each ESN Member websites: www.bancaakros.it www.bankiabolsa.es www.caixabi.pt www.cmcics.com www.degroof.be www.equinet-ag.de www.ibg.gr www.ncb.ie www.pohjola.com www.snssecurities.nl

Jumbo Greece General Retailers

Banca Akros S.p.A. Viale Eginardo, 29 20149 Milano Italy Phone: +39 02 43 444 389 Fax: +39 02 43 444 302

Bank Degroof Rue de I’Industrie 44 1040 Brussels Belgium Phone: +32 2 287 91 16 Fax: +32 2 231 09 04

Bankia Bolsa Serrano, 39 28001 Madrid Spain Phone: +34 91 436 7813 Fax: +34 91 577 3770

Caixa-Banco de Investimento Rua Barata Salgueiro, 33-5 1269-050 Lisboa Portugal Phone: +351 21 389 68 00 Fax: +351 21 389 68 98

CM - CIC Securities 6, avenue de Provence 75441 Paris Cedex 09 France Phone: +33 1 4016 2692 Fax: +33 1 4596 7788

Equinet Bank AG Gräfstraße 97 60487 Frankfurt am Main Germany Phone:+49 69 – 58997 – 410 Fax:+49 69 – 58997 – 299

Investment Bank of Greece 24B, Kifisias Avenue 151 25 Marousi Greece Phone: +30 210 81 73 000 Fax: +30 210 68 96 325

NCB Stockbrokers Ltd. 3 George Dock, Dublin 1 Ireland Phone: +353 1 611 5611 Fax: +353 1 611 5781

Pohjola Bank plc P.O.Box 308 FI- 00013 Pohjola Finland Phone: +358 10 252 011 Fax: +358 10 252 2703

SNS Securities N.V. Nieuwezijds Voorburgwal 162 P.O.Box 235 1000 AE Amsterdam The Netherlands Phone: +31 20 550 8500 Fax: +31 20 626 8064