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Future climate changes: from the global alert to the development of climate services and associated scientific uncertainties. Hervé Le Treut
Evora, 23 November 2012
IPSL = an association of 8 laboratories in the Paris area 6 Laboratories • LATMOS (CNRS/UVSQ/UPMC): Atmospheric chemistry, mesoscale processes • LISA(CNRS/U.Paris Est/U.Paris Diderot) : Atmospheric chemistry, air quality • LMD(CNRS/X/ENS/UPMC): Atmospheric dynamics, climate studies • LOCEAN(CNRS/IRD/UPMC): Physics and biogeochemistry of the ocean • LSCE (CNRS/CEA/UVSQ): Paleoclimatology, geochemical cycles, impacts • LPMAA (CNRS/UPMC): High altitude atmosphere …. With 2 recent additional Partners • IDES (CNRS / U-Paris-Sud): Hydrology and planetology • SISYPHE (CNRS/UPMC) : Hydrologu and climate impacts in total: about 1000 scientists and support scientists 11 participating institutions (CNRS / UPMC/ UVSQ / CEA / CNES ….)
Selected as a Labex (Laboratory of Excellency)
IPSL Climate Model Atmosphere and Continental surfaces (including 19 vert. levels comprehensive chemistry and biochemistry) (LMDZ - ORCHIDEE)
coupler (OASIS)
30 vert. levels
Low Résolution being used for CMIP5: Atm: 3.75°x2.5° (~350 km) Ocean: 2°x2°
Ocean and sea-ice (including biochemistry) (ORCA-LIM)
The climate simulations for the CMIP-5 / WCRP project, in preparation to the next IPCC report
Projects with IPSL (co)leadership: Climate-carbone
( C4MIP, P. Friedlingstein)
Clouds
(CFMIP, S. Bony)
Paleoclimate reconstruction (PMIP P. Braconnot)
Aérosol studies
(AEROCOM, M. Schultz)
Greenhouse emissions (GEIA, C. Granier)
Ozone studies
(CCMVal, S. Bekki)
Space missions with IPSL leadership and/or GIOTTO ULYSSE major involvment VEGA MSL PHOBOS GRUNT EXOMARS BEPI COLOMBO EJSM Géostationnaires météorologiques ADM/ AEOLUS ERS1-ERS2 (ATSRM, validation SAR – SCAT p ENVISAT AIRS MOPITT METOP/IASI- IASI NG
SOHO CASSINI HUYENS MARS EXPRESS VENUS EXPRESS ROSETTA
Station Mir/Alissa A- Train (Calipso/Cloudsat - IIR, Caliop, radar, Earthcare
ScaraB Megha - Tropiques TRMM GPM
CFOSAT T/P Jason1-3 Sentinelle 2 et 3 SWOT SMOS
PHOBOS DEMETER TARANIS SOLSPEC UARS ( WINDII, HALOE,..) POAM PICARD Odin ENVISAT ( GOMOS ) ACE ILAS
• GOSAT OCO MERLIN Microcarb SMOS FLEX MISTIGRI 5 BIOMASS
ESPRI Clouds, water vapour, aerosols Atmospheric chemistry
Model results
. Other(campaigns, in situ)
In-line data storage and computing facility to develop studies at the interface between models and observations (CNRS/ CNES/ UPMC /Polytechnique)
about 1000 To
La combustion des combustibles fossiles: 5 milliards de tonnes par an en plus entre 1945 et 1995
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International Energy Agency
GIEC, 1990 - CDIAC
Principaux constituants atmosphériques contribuant à l’effet de serre Halocarbons 12%
Water vapor 55% Other greenhouse gases 30%
Clouds 15%
Ozone 13%
CO2 53%
N2O 5% CH4 17%
Naturel
Additionnel
(155 W/m2)
(2.8 W/m2)
IPCC, WGI, 2007
L. Fairhead
Observed and Simulated Cloud Radiative Forcing: LW
IPSL CM4.1 Observed and Simulated Seasona Cycle of the SeaSurface Temperatures at the Equator (2°N-2°S)
Reynolds
Les scénarios du GIEC (SRES, 1999) Une première approche des interactions sociétés-climat
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Un exemple de communication mal comprise: GIEC 2001
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Changements observés
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Sea-level rise throughout the 20th century
Mesurements from space
Altimetry from space
Conventional data
Observed rise: 3.3 mm/year since 1993
1.8 mm/year
1993
Not uniform Yellow/red Blue
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2006
The response of NPP to climate
Increase in soil aridity
Extension of the growing Evora, 23 November 2012 season Berthelot et al., 200224
L’évolution du climat pour deux modèles et deux scénarios: les précipitations IPSL CNRM
A2
B1
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Precipitation changes AR4
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La première approche des changements climatiques: la sensibilité du cliamt
DT dans fourchette de 1.5°C à 4.5°C: presque inchangé depuis Charney (1979)
New observational devices are necessary: the example of the Aqua train: Aura, Parasol, Calipso, Cloudsat, Aqua, OCO. Crédits : CNES octobre 2004, illustration P. Carril Evora, 23 November 2012
Climate projections on regional and local scales Global
Performance of current AOGCMs (like those from CMIP3) deteriorate when looking at finer temporal and spatial scales which are needed for many impact assessment studies.
Continental
Regional
Local Evora, 23 November 2012
Giorgi 2007
Two French zoomed climate models
LMDZ-Mediterranean (IPSL, Paris)
Arpege-Mediterranean (Météo-France, Toulouse)
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IPCC, WG2
The difference between risks and vulnerability has been emphasized in the recent IPCC/SREX report on extreme events:
Feedbacks and climate sensitivity definition In absence of feedback 2xCO2 -> 1°C warming
Fossil fuel CO2
Volcanoes
Solar constant
Albedo from Land use
Land and ocean carbon sinks Land ice albedo Orbital
(a)
Charney sensitivity Fig. 1. 3°C per 2x CO2
(b)
Long term climate sensitivity 6°C per 2xCO2
A climate forcing F triggers a series of feedbacks (represented by the feedback parameter ) which determine the resulting equilibrium global mean surface temperature change, climate sensitivity, Delay in this equilibrium temperature response due to(represented by the feedback parameter λ) which determine Aorclimate forcingT.∆F triggers a series of feedbacks ocean and cryosphere inertia leads to a net planetary heat uptake Q. Figure1 (above): Traditional equilibrium framework. Climate sensitivity to an imposed external forcing depends change, or climate sensitivity, ∆T. Delay in this equilibrium the resulting global mean surface temperature solely on fast climate feedbacks occurring on timescales of decade/s or less, specifically changes in water vapor, clouds, and sea Processes regarded as forcings are (from top leads to a net planetary heat uptake ∆Q. (a) Traditional temperature response due toice. ocean and cryosphere inertia to bottom) anthropogenic perturbations of atmospheric composition (including greenhouse Climate gases and aerosols) due to fossil to fuel an burning, volcanic eruptions, variations framework: sensitivity imposed external forcing depends solely on fast climate feedbacks occurring in solar luminosity, changes in anthropogenic land use and land/ocean ecosystem management, changes in terrestrial carbon sequestration, changes in ocean carbon in water vapor, clouds, and sea ice. Processes regarded as on timescales of decade/s or less, specifically changes sequestration, surface albedo changes from land ice and vegetation, and variations in Figure2 (below): insolation solar radiation) due to changes in Earths orbit. perturbations forcings are(incoming (fromtop to bottom) anthropogenic of atmospheric composition (including greenhouse gases New framework. Several Earth system processes traditionally regarded as external forcings are now considered to be internal feedbacks contributing to climate sensitivity,
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A new challenge Climate is evolving in response to increasing greenhouse gases There is a need to mitigate the emissions of greenhouse gases. There is also a need to adapt to the inevitable component of climate change Adaptation is complex due to regional uncertainties about climate change, and to the interdisciplinary expertise which is required The final word is that of citizens or their representative
