Climate change on the local governments agenda – How to cope with uncertainties in climate knowledge? Anna Bratt, Ph. D. Coordinator Climate Adaptation County Administrative Board, Östergötland, Sweden

Presentation outline What is adaptation? County presentation County approach Risk and vulnerability analysis • Adaptive capacity and management • Constraints and conclusions • • • •

Photo montage: Robert Graves and Didier Madoc-Jones

Extreme weather related events have always created problems in society

What is climate change adaptation? ”Measures to adapt society to climate changes already observed and those that can not be prevented in the future”, in order to minimize negative impacts IPCC, 2007 Photo montage

Climate adaptation is a 2009 government commission for County Administrative Boards The responsibility to coordinate climate change adaptation • within the Board • with all actors of the County

21 Counties in Sweden …with their respective County Administrative Board and County Governor. Östergötland has 13 Municipalities within the County. Close to 500 000 people live here.

Responsibilities of the Board • It is a governmental authority and acts as the Government’s representative in the county • Implements governmental and parliamentary decisions • Looks after the interests of the county and promotes development • Provides services for the county’s residents, businesses and organisations • Processes general matters, e.g permits and registrations, and ensures that the rule of law is not infringed

Regional Strategy • integrate perspective of climate change into all governance routines, starting from landuse and spatial planning • increase knowledge base • develop planning documentation

b) Structured decision making a) Production of knowledge

Set targets for adaptation efforts

Continuos monitoring and evaluation

c) Measures

POLICY: Support adaptation efforts

POLICY: remove obstacles

Targets fullfilled

UKCIP, 2010

What do we have to base our targets on? • Laws and regulations • Government Authorities • Regional Strategy for Climate and Energy • County characteristics

Regional Climate scenario

What can be influenced by climate change? • • • • • • • • • • •

Human health Bio-diversity Cultural heritage Agricultural and forestry production Infrastructure and communication Existing buildings Technical service systems Coastal line Natural resources Disaster occurence ?

What is specific for the county of Östergötland? •Demography? •Commercial and industrial life? •Natural resources? •Communications? •Urban areas? •Tourism?

Where do we start to set our targets? Tasks • • • •

Assess alternatives and possible outcomes Prioritize Carry out measures Evaluate

Tools • •

• •

•

Regional climate change scenario Risk and vulnerability analysis, geographically and sectorally Cost/benefit analysis Studies, investigations, government decisions and reports Actor involvement!

What do we have and what do we need to do? •

•

Identify, map (but not only maps!) and analyze Actor involvement – visit municipalities

…or request from other authorities, research inst., legislators

Project: Risk assessment – Östergötland 2004 - 2012

Combined risk analysis – natural disaster and socio-economic values

”Background Summer came early this year. Already in May temperatures of 25 degrees were observed. Since end of May until mid July there has only been very limited rainfall. Land is dry, irrigation as well as fire is prohibited in the region. Groundwaterlevels have decreased to the lowest ever measured. Since July 5 the daily maximum temperatures have constantly kept above 25°C.”

• Description of event • Example of effects and consequences • Support for analysis of event • Facts • Method and ref.

Recommendations for new urban developments

Adaptive management

+ 2.66 m. Eldslund, Strängnäs municipality

Cooperation at regional and local level important!

Activities to raise awareness and spread information Politicians Actors in general Actors per sector

Seminars and discussions Conference Thematic workshops and seminars

2085

Hickler et al. in prep. Se även Sykes et al. 1996, Bradshaw et al. 2000, Smith et al. 2007 (Climate and vulnerability investigation)

• Significant local variations on impact from changes in temperature and precipitation • Land use may change • Lack of habitat lead to trivialisation of species • Growing season increase with 60 days in Östergötland • How will spruce produce? • ?

What will the consequences of these changes be for forestry production in Östergötland?

Human health – Extreme temperatures Government Commission Report on Climate and Vulnerability: ”Periods with high temperatures become more common and the highest temperatures higher than today, which leads to increased mortality especially for vulnerable sectors of society. Future heath waves can become a significant problem demanding counter measures.” Relevance for Kristianstad municipality: In the southern parts of the country the temperature during the warmest days increase proportionally more than average temperature. As other municipalities Kristianstad will have older people as a large part of the population and they are especially vulnerable to extreme temperatures.

Positive consequences • Cold related mortality decrease Negative consequences • more heat waves lead to risk for increased mortality, especially among vulnerable sectors • Less cold spells can lead to increased survival of ticks and other parasites • Higher temperatures increase the risk for food to go bad Measures • Warning system for heat waves • Installation of shades, shading trees etc around elder homes including support for such installations. •Improve ventilation and A/C in buildings • Increased control to secure cold management of food

Local Government Office: Measures

Time

Financing

Check alternative communikations or routines for sensitive activities in connection with breaks in electricity supply

Within a few years

Within budget

Advice on measures to manage cooling in alternate ways

Immediately

Within budget

Measures

Time

Financing

Warning system for heat waves

Within a few years

Apply for funds

Check municipal vulnerability in case of increased frequency of storms, floods, erosion, electricity cuts, and other weather related incidents

Within a few years

Own

Measures

Time

Financing

Assess need of shade and cooling when planning new or renovation of existing buildings

Immediately

Own

Rescue service:

Building companies:

Plan of Action • What does the background information tell us? • What do our historic records tell us? • What is relevant for our region? • Positive consequences? • Negative consequences? • Screen and appraise alternatives • Decide measures, time plan, finance and accountable body in charge • Implement measures! • Evaluate

Identified targets and tools • Secure water supplies • Close cooperation with municipalities

• • • •

New PBL law New regulation on Risk and vulnerability Sectorized workshops within Board Initiate municipal cooperation

Problems encountered within or beyond management? • • • • • •

No Swedish National strategy Few National sectoral guidelines Conflicting interests within authority Conflicting interests within municipality Lack of concrete tools for governance proceedures Accountable level?

Photo: SMHI

Plan for a changing climate! • Important to participate in process at national level to have impact on both policy and practice • Clear coordination with targets and planning for Sustainable Development • Strive for all relevant actors to participate • Provide concrete tools and manuals, based on local conditions, ongoing activities and functions • Use a long term perspective in planning - We have to both learn from past climate and take the future climate into consideration • Adaptive management necessary

Thank you for your attention! • Please feel free to contact me for ideas, comments and questions: [email protected]