Fossil Fuel Supply and Climate Policy: An International Conference

26–27 September 2016 The Queen’s College, Oxford fossilfuelsandclimate.org Twitter: #FFCC16

Conference programme overview Monday, 26 September 8:00–8:45

Registration

Foyer

8:45–11:00

Welcome 1. Supply-side climate policy: Setting the stage

Shulman Auditorium

11:00–11:20

Coffee

Foyer

11:20–12:30

Parallel sessions 2. Strategies and options for fossil fuel producers in a warming world 3. What does deep decarbonization mean for fossil fuels?

Shulman Auditorium Memorial Room

12:30–13:45

Lunch

13:45–14:45

4. Climate responsibilities, risks, and performance of fossil fuel producers Shulman Auditorium

The Hall

14:45–16:15

Parallel sessions 5. Reforming fossil fuel production subsidies 6. The role of norms and legal strategies in addressing fossil fuel supply

Shulman Auditorium Memorial Room

16:15–16:45

Coffee

Foyer

16:45–18:15

7. Equity and just transitions

Shulman Auditorium

18:15–19:30

Reception

Foyer

19:30–21:30

Dinner

The Hall

Tuesday, 27 September 9:00–10:00

8. Fossil fuel production pathways in a low-carbon world

Shulman Auditorium

10:00–11:15

9. Is a fossil fuels-led growth path still a viable choice for lowincome countries?

Shulman Auditorium

11:15–11:30

Coffee

Foyer

11:30–13:00

Parallel sessions 10. Challenges for the Norwegian oil industry 11. Aligning coal development and climate change mitigation goals

13:00–14:30

Lunch

14:30–16:00

Parallel sessions 12. Aligning oil development and climate change mitigation goals 13. Managing coal transitions

Shulman Auditorium Memorial Room The Hall Shulman Auditorium Memorial Room

16:00–16:30

Coffee

Foyer

16:30–17:30

14. Closing: Directions for research and policy

Shulman Auditorium

fossilfuelsandclimate.org

Welcome from the Conference Co-Chairs Dear participant, On behalf of the Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI) and our partner organizations, we warmly welcome you to The Queen’s College for the International Conference on Fossil Fuel Supply and Climate Policy. Last year’s Paris Agreement sent a strong message that world leaders are committed to transforming the global economy, moving away from fossil fuels and onto a low-carbon pathway. Yet much of the hard work still lies ahead. Climate change mitigation efforts need to be scaled up quickly and dramatically, combining proven approaches with new ideas for ways to accelerate the low-carbon transition. Against this background, researchers and policy-makers are increasingly looking at how climate policies designed to limit the supply of fossil fuels might supplement and enhance conventional demand-side policies. Scientists have shown that only a fraction of the world’s remaining fossil fuel reserves can be burnt if global warming is to be limited to 2°C or 1.5°C. But keeping the rest in the ground is a daunting challenge. For many countries, fossil fuel extraction and trade are central to energy security and economic development – which may help explain why the Paris Agreement makes no mention of fossil fuel supplies. And despite growing insights into the environmental impacts of fossil fuel extraction and the financial risks of continued investment in fossil fuel development, we know relatively little about the options for supply-side climate policies and actions, or their potential role and effectiveness. This two-day conference aims to fill that gap. It brings together academics and practitioners from all over the world and a range of disciplines and backgrounds to discuss how policies, plans and investment decisions on fossil fuel extraction and trade can be more consistent with long-term global climate and sustainability goals. We look forward to two stimulating and thought-provoking days here in Oxford. We hope the conference will foster new collaborations and networks, inspire innovative research inquiries and, ultimately, help us to more effectively inform decision-makers on whether and how supply-side climate policies can advance both climate and sustainable development objectives.

Michael Lazarus

Harro van Asselt

Twitter: @SEIclimate #FFCC16

Monday, 26 September 8:00–8:45 8:45–11:00

11:00–11:20 11:20–12:30

Registration Welcome Michael Lazarus and Harro van Asselt, Stockholm Environment Institute 1. Supply-side climate policy: Setting the stage Moderator: Michael Lazarus, Stockholm Environment Institute Keynote: Paul Ekins, Institute for Sustainable Resources, University College London Investment risk in an age of ‘unburnable’ fossil fuels Panel: • Frank Jotzo, Australian National University The case for coal supply-side policy: A coal tax • Richard Denniss, The Australia Institute Will the ugly duckling become a beautiful swan or a dead duck? The political and economic case for a global moratorium on building new coal mines • María Rosa Murmis, Universidad Andina Simón Bolívar Unburnable carbon and biodiversity: A global fund for keeping fossil fuels in the ground in biodiversity hotspots of developing countries • Jehan Sauvage, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development A question of balance: The world trading system and fossil fuels • Sivan Kartha, Stockholm Environment Institute Whose carbon is ‘burnable’? Equity considerations in the allocation of a ‘right to extract’ Coffee Parallel sessions 2. Strategies and options for fossil fuel producers in a warming world Moderator: Mark Jaccard, Simon Fraser University Panel: • Jenny Lieu, Science Policy Research Unit, University of Sussex, and Ashim Paun, HBSC plc Divestment and stranded fossil fuel assets: The return characteristics of divested index portfolios • Lucas Kruitwagen, Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment, University of Oxford Future pathways to 1.5°C/2°C-compatible oil and gas majors: Survey of energy outlooks and key uncertainties • Richard Heede, Climate Accountability Institute, and Paul Griffin, CDP Aligning an oil and gas company’s reserves and future emissions with a 2°C sciencebased target: A preliminary study of an oil and gas major

Oil refinery, Wyoming - © Sinclair Refinery

fossilfuelsandclimate.org

Coal barge, China © Rose Davies

11:20–12:30

3. What does deep decarbonization mean for fossil fuels? Moderator: Henri Waisman, Institute For Sustainable Development and International Relations

12:30–13:45 13:45–14:45

14:45–16:15

Panel: • Steve Pye, Energy Institute, University College London The implications of stringent national decarbonization pathways on global energy trade flows: A multi-scale analysis • Chris Bataille, Institute For Sustainable Development and International Relations Resilient and adaptive long-term decarbonization GHG policy for a major fossil fuel producer – the case of Alberta • Mark Fulton, Energy Transition Advisors Asian coal at the pivotal point Lunch 4. Climate responsibilities, risks, and performance of fossil fuel producers (panel discussion) Moderator: Peter Frumhoff, Union of Concerned Scientists Panel: • Kathy Mulvey, Union of Concerned Scientists • Myles Allen, Oxford Martin Net Zero Carbon Investment Initiative • Eniko Horvath, Business and Human Rights Resource Centre Parallel sessions 5. Reforming fossil fuel production subsidies Moderator: Laura Merrill, International Institute for Sustainable Development Panel: • Ivetta Gerasimchuk, International Institute for Sustainable Development Unlocking supply and locking in carbon: The paradox of determining which fossil fuel subsidies are the worst for the climate • Kennedy Mbeva, African Centre for Technology Studies Explaining variation in fossil fuel subsidy reforms between countries • Zuelclady Araujo Gutiérrez, Environment Ministry, Peru Measuring the impacts of eliminating subsidies and assigning taxes to energy products in Mexico through a general equilibrium model • Doug Koplow, Earth Track Fossil fuel subsidy reform in the United States: Impediments and opportunities

Twitter: @SEIclimate #FFCC16

14:45–16:15

16:15–16:45 16:45–18:15

18:15–19:30 19:30–21:30

6. The role of norms and legal strategies in addressing fossil fuel supply Moderator: Harro van Asselt, Stockholm Environment Institute Panel: • Mathieu Blondeel, Ghent Institute for International Studies, Ghent University Towards a global coal mining moratorium? A comparative analysis of coal mining policies in the U.S., China, Indonesia and Australia • Fergus Green, London School of Economics and Political Science Anti-fossil fuel norms: A proposal for Fossil Fuel Free Zones • Naomi Ages, Greenpeace USA New allies, new avenues: Legal strategies for accelerating the fossil fuel phase-out • Claire Stockwell, Centre for Socio-Legal Studies, University of Oxford Causation in Australian climate litigation • Keith Benes, Center on Global Energy Policy, Columbia University Sending a signal to the market: Assessing how the Paris Agreement impacts perceptions of risk of investing in fossil and clean energy projects Coffee 7. Equity and just transitions (panel discussion) Moderator: Sivan Kartha, Stockholm Environment Institute Panel: • Navroz Dubash, Centre for Policy Research • Nnimmo Bassey, Health of Mother Earth Foundation • Samantha Smith, Just Transition Centre • Simon Caney, University of Oxford • Greg Muttitt, Oil Change International Reception Dinner

Tuesday, 27 September 9:00–10:00

10:00–11:15

8. Fossil fuel production pathways in a low-carbon world Moderator: Shelagh Whitley, Overseas Development Institute Speakers: • Christophe McGlade, International Energy Agency Disentangling the risks of fossil fuel asset stranding • Alasdair Hamblin, GE Oil & Gas Managing investment risk in oil and gas 9. Is a fossil fuels-led growth path still a viable choice for low-income countries? (panel discussion) Moderator: Jon Marks, Cross-Border Information Panel: • Glada Lahn, Chatham House • Siân Bradley, Chatham House • Ekpen Omonbude, Commonwealth Secretariat • Nicola Barnfather, UK Department for International Development • Petter Stigset, Norwegian Agency for Development Cooperation

fossilfuelsandclimate.org

11:15–11:30 11:30–13:00

13:00–14:30 14:30–16:00

Coffee Parallel sessions 10. Challenges for the Norwegian oil industry (panel discussion) Moderator: Guri Bang, Centre for International Climate and Environmental Research – Oslo Panel: • Arne Eik, Statoil • Anders Bjartnes, Norsk Klimastiftelse/Energi og Klima • Bård Lahn, Centre for International Climate and Environmental Research – Oslo • Thina Saltvedt, Nordea Markets, Nordea Bank ASA 11. Aligning coal development and climate change mitigation goals Moderator: Harald Winkler, Energy Research Centre, University of Cape Town Panel: • Jan Steckel, Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change Climate policy, coal and the power of relative prices • Claudia Strambo, Stockholm Environment Institute Political economy of coal extraction in Colombia: Challenges and opportunities for supply-side mitigation strategies • Liese Dart, The Wilderness Society Energy development and greenhouse gas emissions on federal lands • Peter Erickson, Stockholm Environment Institute Impact of phasing out U.S. fossil fuel leases on CO2 emissions and the 2°C goal • Hongxia Duan, Global Subsidies Initiative, International Institute for Sustainable Development Windows of opportunity: Coal phase-out in China Lunch Parallel sessions 12. Aligning oil development and climate change mitigation goals Moderator: Roberto Schaeffer, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro Panel: • Mark Jaccard, Simon Fraser University Fossil fuel project approvals and climate commitments: Modelling tools for connecting the dots • Katya Pérez Guzmán, Facultad Latinoamericana de Ciencias Sociales, Mexico The intertwining and disparities between the political economy of oil supply and climate change mitigation policies: The cases of Mexico and Colombia (2000–2015) • Henrik Wachtmeister, Uppsala University Investment and production dynamics of conventional and unconventional oil: Implications for climate strategies • Tzeporah Berman, York University and Alberta Government ‘Greener oil’ or managed decline? A case study of the Alberta Climate Plan

Oil pump jacks, California © Arne Hückelheim

Twitter: @SEIclimate #FFCC16

14:30–16:00 13. Managing coal transitions Moderator: Ben Caldecott, Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment, University of Oxford Panel: • Jesse Burton, Energy Research Centre, University of Cape Town The emission implications of South Africa’s elite transition • Roman Mendelevitch, German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin) Testing supply-side climate policies for the global steam coal market: Can they curb coal consumption? • Christian von Hirschhausen, Technische Universität Berlin Organizing a German coal phase-out • Bettina Wittneben, Climactio (Climate-KIC) From coal levy to pay-the-polluter principle: Germany’s policy innovation to constrain lignite production 16:00–16:30 Coffee 16:30–17:30 14. Closing: Directions for research and policy Moderator: Marion Davis, Stockholm Environment Institute Panel: • Tzeporah Berman, York University and Alberta Government • Frank Convery, Environmental Defense Fund • Navroz Dubash, Centre for Policy Research • Claudia Strambo, Stockholm Environment Institute • Fernando Tudela Abad, Centro del Cambio Global y la Sustentabilidad en el Sureste

Conference organization Conference Co-Chairs Michael Lazarus, Stockholm Environment Institute, U.S. Center Harro van Asselt, Stockholm Environment Institute, Oxford Centre, and University of Eastern Finland

Conference Steering Group Guri Bang, Centre for International Climate and Environmental Research – Oslo (CICERO) Jesse Burton, Energy Research Centre, University of Cape Town Ben Caldecott, Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment, University of Oxford Paul Ekins, University College London Frank Jotzo, Australian National University Jehan Sauvage, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development Roberto Schaeffer, Federal University of Rio de Janeiro Shelagh Whitley, Overseas Development Institute Harald Winkler, Energy Research Centre, University of Cape Town

fossilfuelsandclimate.org

Conference participants Naomi Ages, Attorney and Climate Liability Project Lead, Greenpeace USA

Siân Bradley, Research Associate, Energy, Environment and Resources, Chatham House

Myles Allen, Professor of Geosystem Science, Environmental Change Institute, School of Geography and the Environment and Department of Physics, University of Oxford, and Co-Director, Oxford Martin Net Zero Carbon Investment Initiative

Becky Buell, Co-Founder and Partner, Meteos

Zuelclady Araujo Gutiérrez, Specialist on REDD+ Distribution of Benefits, Environment Ministry, Peru

Ben Caldecott, Director, Sustainable Finance Programme, Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment, University of Oxford

Nathan Argent, Programme Officer, Oak Foundation

Simon Caney, Professor in Political Theory, University of Oxford, and Fellow and Tutor, Magdalen College

Harro van Asselt, Senior Research Fellow, Stockholm Environment Institute, Oxford Centre Tom Athanasiou, Executive Director, EcoEquity May Thazin Aung, Research Assistant, Stockholm Environment Institute, Asia Centre Guri Bang, Research Director, Centre for International Climate and Environmental Research – Oslo (CICERO) Nicola Barnfather, Extractives Industries Adviser, UK Department for International Development Nnimmo Bassey, Director, Health of Mother Earth Foundation (HOMEF), Nigeria Andrea Marcello Bassi, Founder and CEO, KnowlEdge Srl Chris Bataille, Associate Researcher, Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations (IDDRI)

Laurie van der Burg, Research Officer, Overseas Development Institute Jesse Burton, Researcher, Energy Research Centre, University of Cape Town

Alexandra Carr, Programme and Marketing Officer, Climate Strategies Han Chen, International Climate Advocate, Natural Resources Defense Council Kuni Chen, Director, The Nature Conservancy Frank Convery, Chief Economist, Environmental Defense Fund Megan Darby, News Editor, Climate Home Liese Dart, Senior Energy Advisor and Director of the President’s Office, The Wilderness Society Marion Davis, Senior Communications Officer, Stockholm Environment Institute, U.S. Center Richard Denniss, Chief Economist, The Australia Institute Alexander Doukas, Senior Campaigner, Oil Change International

Keith Benes, Fellow, Center on Global Energy Policy, Columbia University

Adrian Down, Staff Scientist, Stockholm Environment Institute, U.S. Center

Noam Bergman, Research Fellow, Science Policy Research Unit, University of Sussex

Hongxia Duan, Senior Advisor, Global Subsidies Initiative, International Institute for Sustainable Development (Beijing)

Tzeporah Berman, Co-Chair, Oilsands Advisory Working Group, Alberta Government, and Adjunct Professor, Environmental Studies, York University Anders Bjartnes, Editor, Energi og Klima, Norsk Klimastiftelse Mathieu Blondeel, PhD Candidate, Ghent University Stefan Bößner, Research Fellow, Stockholm Environment Institute, Oxford Centre

Navroz Dubash, Senior Fellow, Centre for Policy Research Alexander Ege, Program Manager, KR Foundation Arne Eik, Leading Advisor, Corporate Sustainability Unit, Statoil Paul Ekins, Professor of Resources and Environmental Policy, and Director, Institute for Sustainable Resources, University College London

Twitter: @SEIclimate #FFCC16

Peter Erickson, Senior Scientist, Stockholm Environment Institute, U.S. Center Mark Fulton, Founder, Energy Transition Advisors Peter Frumhoff, Director of Science and Policy, Union of Concerned Scientists Ivetta Gerasimchuk, Senior Researcher, Global Subsidies Initiative, International Institute for Sustainable Development (Geneva) Thijs Van de Graaf, Assistant Professor of International Politics, Ghent University Fergus Green, PhD Candidate, London School of Economics and Political Science Daniel Horen Greenford, Graduate Student, Concordia University

Lucas Kruitwagen, Research Assistant, Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment, University of Oxford Kjell Kühne, Founder, Leave it in the Ground Initiative (LINGO) Bård Lahn, Researcher, Centre for International Climate and Environmental Research – Oslo (CICERO) Glada Lahn, Senior Research Fellow, Energy, Environment and Resources, Chatham House Michael Lazarus, Senior Scientist, U.S. Center Director, and Co-Leader of SEI Initiative on Fossil Fuels and Climate Change, Stockholm Environment Institute

Paul Griffin, Energy Data Analyst, CDP

Carlos Larrea, Professor, Universidad Andina Simón Bolívar, Quito, Ecuador

Alasdair Hamblin, Strategic Marketing Director, GE Oil & Gas

Niel Lawrence, Alaska Director and Senior Attorney, Natural Resources Defense Council

Richard Heede, Director and Co-Founder, Climate Accountability Institute

Hugh Lee, Chairman, The Ebico Trust for Sustainable Development

Seb Henbest, Head, EMEA, and Lead Author, New Energy Outlook, Bloomberg New Energy Finance

Jenny Lieu, Research Fellow, Science Policy Research Unit, University of Sussex

Christian von Hirschhausen, Professor, Workgroup for Infrastructure Policy, Technische Universität Berlin Eniko Horvath, Senior Researcher, Business & Human Rights Resource Centre Mark Jaccard, Professor, Simon Fraser University Frank Jotzo, Director, Centre for Climate Economics and Policy, Associate Professor and Deputy Director, Crawford School of Public Policy, and Public Policy Fellow, Australian National University Sivan Kartha, Senior Scientist, Stockholm Environment Institute, U.S. Center Joel Kenrick, Senior Associate, Economics and Finance, European Climate Foundation Doug Koplow, Founder, Earth Track Inc. Gert Jan Kramer, Professor of Sustainable Energy Supply, Utrecht University Stephen Kretzmann, Executive Director, Oil Change International Ingunn Kroksnes, Senior Advisor, Norwegian Agency for Development Cooperation (Norad) Charlie Kronick, Senior Programme Advisor, Greenpeace UK

fossilfuelsandclimate.org

Eric Love, Senior Director of Conservation Transactions, NatureVest, The Nature Conservancy Jon Marks, Chairman and Founder, Cross-Border Information Ltd. Robert Massie, Executive Director, Sustainable Solutions Lab, University of Massachusetts, Boston Franz Matzner, Director, Beyond Oil Initiative, Natural Resources Defense Council Kennedy Mbeva, Research Fellow, African Centre for Technology Studies (ACTS) Neil McCulloch, Principal Economist, Oxford Policy Management Christophe McGlade, Oil and Gas Analyst, World Energy Outlook, International Energy Agency Maeve McLynn, Policy Coordinator – Finance and Subsidies, Climate Action Network Europe Roman Mendelevitch, Research Associate, German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin) Laura Merrill, Senior Researcher and Operations Manager, Global Subsidies Initiative, International Institute for Sustainable Development (Geneva)

Kathy Mulvey, Climate Accountability Campaign Manager and Advocate, Union of Concerned Scientists

Susan Shaw, EU Energy and Coal Project Lawyer, ClientEarth

María Rosa Murmis, Associate Researcher, Universidad Andina Simón Bolivar, Quito, Ecuador

Jan Steckel, Head of Working Group, Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change

Greg Muttitt, Senior Advisor, Oil Change International Michael Northrop, Program Director, Rockefeller Brothers Fund Ekpen Omonbude, Economic Adviser, Oceans and Natural Resources Advisory Division, Commonwealth Secretariat Ashim Paun, Climate Change Analyst, HSBC Bank plc Anna Pegels, Senior Researcher, German Development Institute Katya Pérez Guzmán, Researcher, Cluster Institute Alexander Pfeiffer, PhD Student, Smith School for Enterprise and the Environment,| Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET) at the Oxford Martin School Alicia Puyana, Professor and Researcher, Facultad Latinoamericana de Ciencias Sociales (FLACSO), Mexico Steve Pye, Senior Research Associate, Energy Institute, University College London Michael Ross, Professor of Political Science, University of California, Los Angeles Umit Sahin, Senior Research Scholar, Coordinator of the Climate Policy Cluster, Sabanci University, Istanbul Policy Center Thina Margrethe Saltvedt, Chief Analyst, Macro/ Oil, Nordea Markets, Nordea Bank ASA Jehan Sauvage, Policy Analyst, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development Roberto Schaeffer, Professor of Energy Economics, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro

Samantha Smith, Director, Just Transition Centre

Radoslaw Stefanski, Lecturer, University of St. Andrews Petter Stigset, Director, Oil for Development Programme, Norwegian Agency for Development Cooperation (Norad) Claire Stockwell, PhD Candidate, Centre for Socio-Legal Studies, University of Oxford Claudia Strambo, Research Associate, Stockholm Environment Institute, Stockholm Bronwen Tucker, MSc Student, Oxford University, and Greenpeace Canada Fernando Tudela, Professor and Climate Change Advisor, Centro del Cambio Global y la Sustentabilidad en el Sureste Amy Vernon-Jones, Program Analyst, Robertson Foundation Henrik Wachtmeister, Doctoral Student, Uppsala University Henri Waisman, Coordinator, Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project (DDPP), Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations Shelagh Whitley, Research Fellow, Overseas Development Institute Bettina Wittneben, Chair, Steering Group, Climactio (Climate-KIC) Harald Winkler, Director, Energy Research Centre, University of Cape Town Lindee Wong, Consultant, Ecofys Gerard Wynn, Consultant, Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis Sophie Yeo, Reporter, Carbon Brief

Oil train, California © Russ Allison Loar

Twitter: @SEIclimate #FFCC16

Conference sponsors:

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