Growth in energy demand
Fossil fuel prices
CO2 emissions + climate change
Security of energy supply
1
MEETING ENERGY NEEDS IN HUNGARY BY EFFICIENT CO2 EMISSION REDUCTION PÁL KOVÁCS UNDERSECRETARY OF STATE FOR ENERGY
MINISTRY FOR NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT
2
Content • Challenges • Responses • Domestic potential
3
Challenges
4
Trends 1.
CO2 emissions are globally increasing Consequence: Global warming
5
Business as usual to 2050 Population up by 50%... Energy demand up by 100%... Electricity demand up by 150%...
CO2 emissions per unit of energy consumption must be reduce reduced d by a factor of 4 OECD/NEA: Nuclear Energy Outlook '08
6
Trends 2.
National economies want development
Energy needs and CO2 emissions are increasing 0,9
China CO2/GDP (kg per USD'2008 PPP)
0,8
Russia 0,7
Middle-East 0,6 0,5
USA
World
India
0,4
Japan 0,3
EU 0,2
Relationship between UN Human Development Index and electricity use in 60 countries in 1997
0,1
CO2 emissions and GDP in 2007
0 0
10 000
20 000
30 000
40 000
50 000
GDP/person (USD'2008, PPP)
Source: IEA: World Energy Outlook (WEO), 2009., p. 179.
Source: Pasternak; OECD NEA – Nuclear Energy Outlook7
Projected increase in global TPES
Trends 3. Projected increase in global TPES 18 000
Mtoe
16 000
WEO 2008
14 000
other
12 000
bio
10 000
hydro
8 000
nuclea r gas
6 000 4 000
oil
2 000 0
1980
1990
2000
Source: IEA: World Energy Outlook (WEO), 2009., p. 75.
2010
2020
2030
Source: OECD NEA: Nuclear Energy Outlook '08
8
Trends 4.
Sources of global anthropogenic CO2 emissions
Carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fossil--fired power plants and road transport by far the biggest and fastest fastest--growing sources of CO2 9
9
Trends 4. Energy consumption in the EU-27 countries by 2030 – reference scenario
10
Responses
11
Responses 1. – Global (IEA) What are the key technologies for reducing global CO2 emissions under the BLUE Map scenario? A wide range of technologies will be necessary to reduce related CO2 emissions substantially
World energy-related CO2 emissions abatement by region In the blue map scenario most of the reductions in energy-related CO2 emissions are in non-OECD countries
12
Responses 2. – Global (IEA) Average annual electricity capacity additions to 2050 needed to achieve the BLUE Map scenario 2008
2010
Annual rates of investment in many low-carbon electricity generating technologies must be massively increased from today’s levels 13
Responses 3. – EU Key elements of the EU strategy by 2020…
14
Responses 4. – EU
5000
Szén-dioxid-kibocsátás az EU-27-ben
CO2-emisszió, millió tonna
4500 4000
nem ETS EU-ETS-Cap lineáris folytatás EU-ETS-Cap összes emisszió
bázis -20%
3500 3000
bázis -80%
2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0
bázis 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 ETS = Emission Trading System (Kibocsátás-kereskedelmi rendszer)
Forrás: Energiewirtschaftliche Tagesfragen, 60. k. 3. sz. 2010. p. 45-49.
15
Responses 5. – EU Total GHG emission - EU-27
Areas: Power plants Road transport Air and water transport Industry Buildings Waste Agriculture Forestry 16
Responses 6. – EU Comparison of engines – Need for a technologycal revolution
17
Responses 7. – EU A CO2CO2-free development scenario, scenario, billion km1) 7000 6000
fosszilis
5000
hibrid
4000 3000 2000 1000 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
dugaszolós hibrid akkumulátoros villany bioüzemanyag hidrogén
1) Heavy duty trucks consume 4 times more for 1 km than cars. Source: ROADMAP 2050 (www.roadmap2050.eu) 2010. April
18
Domestic potential
19
Domestic potential 1. There is no official official,, consensual, consensual, long term energy strategy in Hungary beyond 2030; A new long term energy strategy should : - Respond to the future economic growth; - Analyse different scenarios (min. 3); - Provide different solutions for the internal structure of energy sources and technologies; - Respond to the requirements of sustainability; - Efficiently manage/reduce CO2 emissions; - Not endanger electricity grid stabililty; - Provide a larger variety of applicability for the key energy technologies (e.g.: electricity, heat, H2 production, etc.); - Find the right balance between centralised and decentralised ways of energy production; - Provide a chance to improve the industrial potential for domestic companies by this way increasing employment; 20
Domestic potential 2. One alternative solution by 2030 (GKI) 1400
BAU -20% GHG (but 13% RES is not included)
1200 1000
A climate-proof scenario -30% GHG (13% RES + Energy Intensity) >> 2030: 1030 PJ
800 600 400 200 0 -200
1990
Sz én
2000
Kőolaj
2002
Földgáz
2004
A tom
2006
2008
2010
V illamos energia import s z aldó
2020
Egy éb, megújuló
2030
• Expected outcome of climate-friendly action plans: •energy efficiency of households increases (expected saving:100,8 PJ/year), • energy efficiency improvements for public offices (expected saving: 10,8 PJ/year), • energy efficient technologies in the transport sector (55 PJ/year), • modern biomass technologies/biofuels (69 PJ/year).
21
Domestic potential 3. 6000
1
National Ation Plan scenarios - 2030
5000
elkerült CO2 [kt/év]
1. Least cost 2. Highest employment 3. Less GHG emission
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Év
6000
9000
5000
2
8000
Biomassza (szilárd)
Biogáz
Geotermikus energia
Szélenergia
Napenergia
Vízenergia
Hőszivatttyú
3
4000
6000 elkerült CO2 [kt/év]
e lk erü lt C O 2 [kt/év]
7000
3000
2000
5000
4000
3000
2000 1000
1000
0
0
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Biomassza (szilárd)
Biogáz
Geotermikus energia
2016
2017
2018
2019
Év
Év
Szélenergia
Napenergia
Vízenergia
Hőszivatttyú
Biomassza (szilárd)
Biogáz
Geotermikus energia
2020
22 Szélenergia
Napenergia
Vízenergia
Hőszivatttyú
Thank you for your attention
