Foreword January 2014 Dear CCIM Institute members, Welcome to the fourth-quarter 2013 edition of CCIM Institute’s Quarterly Market Trends. The report provides timely insight into major commercial real estate indicators for core income-producing properties. It is produced by the National Association of Realtors® in conjunction with and for members of the CCIM Institute, the commercial real estate industry’s global standard for professional achievement. The fourth-quarter 2013 report features commentary from Lawrence Yun, Ph.D., NAR chief economist, and George Ratiu, director of NAR’s quantitative and commercial research. It also includes market data collected from CCIM members that illustrate regional economic and transactional trends across the U.S. I’d like to thank the CCIM members who participated in the survey and shared insights on their local markets. I hope that the information provided in CCIM’s Quarterly Market Trends report provides both economic and commercial real estate market information that will assist you in your business strategies in 2014 and beyond.
Sincerely,
Karl Landreneau, CCIM 2014 CCIM Institute President
[email protected]
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Table of Contents
U.S. Economic Overview p. 4 Commercial Real Estate Forecast p. 8 CCIM Market and Transaction Highlights p. 16 Commercial Property Sector Analysis p. 17 CCIM Survey Results p. 20 U.S. Metropolitan Economic Outlook p. 24 Sponsors p. 29 Contributors p. 30
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U.S. Economic Overview The U.S. economy is expected to continue its slow upward trajectory through 2015. A wide variety of economic variables can impact commercial real estate sales, but trends in three key variables — gross domestic product, employment, and interest rates— generally summarize the outlook for commercial real estate in the near term. GDP and employment are in
coupled with a normal economic slowdown,
a slow growth mode, and interest rates are projected
resulting in a sharp recession, significantly lower
to continue to be favorable to sales. Accordingly, the
levels of consumer confidence, and high levels
commercial real estate sales outlook is positive, but
of unemployment. Annual real GDP growth has
at the same time mediocre.
averaged 2.3 percent since the end of the Great Recession in second-quarter 2009, and historically
The slower than expected economic expansion and
growth above 3 percent has followed recessions
lingering uncertainties from the Great Recession
in the 1970s-2000s. Lower than normal levels of
are slowing job creation. The real level of economic
household formation, decreased state and local
expansion continues to be forecasted at less than 3
government expenditures, a mediocre level of
percent, a rate that would signify a normal expansion
consumer confidence, and significant losses in
economy.
household wealth have contributed to the relatively low level of economic growth.
GDP Growth The Great Recession appears to have been caused
Wealth effects initially held back the economic
by the confluence of excessive financial speculation
expansion: Approximately $6.5 trillion of housing
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U.S. Economic Overview wealth was eliminated from fourth-quarter 2006
Job Growth
to fourth-quarter 2011 as home prices declined,
The economy needs to create an average of 125,000
according to Federal Reserve Bank data. Coupled
additional jobs per month just to stay even with
with major declines in the stock markets, this
population growth. Since the end of the Great
deleveraging
consumer
Recession job growth has averaged 124,000 new
confidence and spending decisions by corporations,
jobs per month, according to the Bureau of Labor
consumers, and governments.
Statistics. As of October 2013, approximately 20
negatively
impacted
million people were unemployed or employed part Uncertainties about the economy were also illustrated
time for economic reasons, according to a BLS
by unusually low levels of consumer confidence. The
Household Survey, and the monthly job creation rate
Economic Policy Uncertainty Index, which measures
reported through October 2013 was 186,000 per
the level of economic uncertainty, reached historical
month.
highs in August 2011. At current job creation rates, it will take 58 months Finally, weak consumer demand, increasing economic
to get unemployment down to 5 percent with no
inequality, and the growth of low-pay part-time jobs
improvement in part-time workers who would
continue to be causative factors in the economy’s
like full-time jobs. In addition, the labor force has
slowness. Income flows are circular in the economy.
dropped from 65.7 percent in January 2009 to 62.8
As such, the significant growth of the number of
percent in 2013, which accounts for the elimination
consumers with lower incomes has been cited as a
of approximately 7 million jobs. Some of the labor
major negative impact on consumer expenditures.
force dropouts probably represent discouraged workers leaving the labor force.
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U.S. Economic Overview Job creation is a major driver of the demand for
debt solvency issues can be resolved at the national
commercial real estate, and currently this driver is
level, that major European economies will continue
weaker than it should be under normal conditions.
to improve, and that major political risks do not
As such, slow job creation appears to be the result of
generate economic disasters. The current forecast is
a weak recovery from the Great Recession coupled
based on a continuation of current economic trends
with ongoing economic uncertainty.
absent exceptional economic drama.
Interest Rates
Assuming that there are no surprises or shocks
Most economists expect the Federal Reserve
to the economy, no major tax increases, and that
System to end quantitative easing at some point
government spending continues at current levels,
in 2014. Interest rates are expected to rise, but
the economy is projected to grow moderately for the
are projected to continue to be relatively low by
next three years. Both monetary and fiscal policy have
historic standards. In addition, the Fed is expected
been relatively expansionary, although tempered
to continue to support an expanding economy
by sequestration and modestly rising interest
through relatively easy monetary policy. This
rates. Despite sequestration and government belt
is good news for commercial sales prospects.
tightening, the federal government continues to run at a substantial deficit. State and local governments
Subpar Expansion— Is It the New Normal?
as a whole do not appear to be in a mode for
All forecasts are based on a myriad of economic
additional cutbacks.
assumptions, i.e., that there will be no unforeseen changes in Federal budgets, that a monetary crisis
The economic forecast is based largely on the
will not freeze financial markets, that taxation and
assumption of repeated historical relationships in
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U.S. Economic Overview terms of consumer behavior, asset prices, and domestic
consumer confidence is well below the 100 level that
and international transactions. Trends in asset prices (e.g.,
one would expect during an expanding economy
stocks, housing prices, oil prices, international exchange
and the monthly economic policy uncertainty index,
rates) are essentially unpredictable, but are assumed to
which is based on newspaper coverage, federal tax
be favorable. The assumption of the absence of surprises
code provisions, and disagreements among economic
or shocks to the economy means that the economy will
forecasters, continues to be relatively unfavorable.
continue to grow.
The bottom line is: There continues to be substantial economic uncertainty.
Both economic and non-economic factors coupled with the lingering wealth effects from the Great Recession
In short, the combination of uncertainties and the
appear to be holding the economy back. The National
lingering effects of the Great Recession appear to
Federation of Independent Businesses has reported both
continue to hold back GDP and job growth potential.
demand/poor sales (the economic factor) and government
Consequently, both a recession and robust growth
regulatory requirements (the non-economic factor) as
appear to be unlikely in the next few years. While the
problems holding back the economy.
outlook is positive, it remains mediocre as it is strongly influenced by uncertainties and perceptions about
Uncertainties about quantitative easing, fundamental
current government policies. If these exogenous
budgetary and sequestration disagreements in Congress,
factors were to change unexpectedly (and this is a
hiring concerns reported to be a result of changes in medical
distinct upside possibility given that we are dealing to
insurance programs, and general business concerns appear
a significant degree with political and psychological
to be keeping business optimism at lower than normal
issues), the forecast could become significantly more
levels and negatively impacting hiring decisions. In addition,
positive in 2014.
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Commercial Real Estate Forecast Fundamentals Third-quarter 2013 economic activity—as measured by GDP—witnessed a solid 3.6 percent growth. Some of that positive growth spilled over into commercial real estate markets. Net absorption figures were positive, and modest new construction led to steady vacancy declines.
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Commercial Real Estate Forecast Commercial Property Sector Overview
Nashville, Tenn. (12.7 percent). Asking rents advanced 0.3 percent in the third quarter based on data from
Office
Reis. Rents are projected to rise 2.4 percent by the
The office sector remained bound to modest
end of the year.
employment gains in office-using industries. After staying flat for the previous two quarters, office
Industrial
vacancies declined 10 basis points in the third quarter.
International trade increased in the third quarter,
Compared with a year ago, availability rates were
leading to a positive trade balance. Port and
30 basis points lower. Demand for office properties
intermodal markets reaped most of the benefits
remained moderate, with net absorption totaling
from the activity, posting stronger occupancy and
5.4 million square feet, according to Reis. For the
rent rates. However, on a national level, demand
fourth quarter, net absorption is projected to reach
for industrial space was moderate. Third-quarter
13.4 million sf. The best performing markets during
absorption totaled 14.5 million square feet, according
the quarter were those clustered in technology and
to Reis. On the other hand, the supply of new
energy industries, including Houston, Austin, Texas,
industrial buildings reached its post-2009 peak,
Dallas, Boston, Denver, San Francisco, and Seattle.
totaling 7.4 million sf. Due to the supply increase, vacancy rates declined 10 basis points from second
Office vacancy rates are estimated to close the year
quarter, and 70 basis points on a yearly basis.
at an average 15.7 percent. Regionally, the markets with the lowest projected vacancy rates in the fourth
Availability rates are projected to decline to an
quarter are New York (9.8 percent), Washington, D.C.
average 9.3 percent for the year. Markets with the
(9.9 percent), Little Rock, Ark., (12.0 percent), and
lowest fourth quarter estimated vacancy rates include
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Commercial Real Estate Forecast Orange County, Calif. (3.9 percent), Los Angeles
Retail vacancy is expected to drop to 10.5 percent
(4.0 percent), Miami (6.0 percent), and Seattle (6.3
by the end of the fourth quarter. Coastal markets
percent). Asking rents for industrial space rose 0.4
retain their supremacy in terms of vacancies and rent
percent in the third quarter and are projected to
growth, with California, New York City suburbs, and
gain 2.3 percent for the year.
Washington, D.C., and its suburbs at the top. Two markets offer projected vacancy rates below 5.0
Retail
percent, including Fairfield County, Conn., and San
Political uncertainty in Washington, D.C., and the
Francisco. Asking rents rose 0.3 percent in the third
threat of government shutdown loomed large in
quarter, and are estimated to increase 1.4 percent by
the third quarter. Though GDP during the quarter
the end of 2013.
was solid, it is expected to have slowed drastically to about 1.5 percent in the fourth quarter. Consumer
Multifamily
confidence remained muted, leading to soft spending
Despite investor concerns about the apartment
at the retail level. As a result, demand for retail space
market’s performance, demand for multifamily
was weak, with absorption totaling 2.3 million square
properties remained strong in the third quarter.
feet according to Reis. Meanwhile, the volume of
According to Reis, net absorption totaled 41,283
new construction hit a yearly peak, with 1.5 million
units during the quarter. The supply of apartments
square feet coming online. The combination kept
also grew, adding 36,269 new units on the market.
vacancy rates flat in the third quarter compared with
In turn, the vacancy rate slid 10 basis points during
the second. On a yearly basis, availability was down
the third quarter. Availability rates are expected to
30 basis points.
close the year at 4.1 percent. Metro markets with the lowest projected vacancies are topped by New
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Commercial Real Estate Forecast Haven, Conn., with a rate of 1.9 percent, followed by Syracuse, N.Y., Minneapolis, and San Diego. Asking apartment rents increased 1.0 percent in the third quarter and are expected to rise at a 4.0 percent yearly rate during 2013.
Investment Conditions Commercial real estate investments posted an upbeat third quarter. Sales of major properties (greater than $2.5 million) advanced 26 percent on a yearly basis during the quarter, totaling $89.7 billion, according to Real Capital Analytics. Investors were drawn to a few specific property types, leading to double- or triple-digit growth rates: Sales of retail properties rose 104 percent on a yearly basis, while industrial sales volume jumped 70 percent. Sales of properties at the lower end of the price range (less than $2.5 million) increased 11 percent on a yearly basis. Based on three quarters of data and fourth quarter projections, total sales volume is expected to surpass 2012’s $300 billion.
CCIM QUARTERLY MARKET TRENDS
Source: Real Capital Analytics
A major portion of total sales volume during the third quarter was made up of portfolio sales, which totaled $30.2 billion. Blackstone was involved in two major portfolio sales transactions – an apartment portfolio
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Commercial Real Estate Forecast and an industrial portfolio -- totaling more than $3.1 billion. Sprint Realty Capital spent $7.7 billion on a portfolio of mixed properties. On the individual property side, office transactions dominated the market for top properties. The building at 650 Madison Ave. in New York sold for $1.3 billion in the third quarter, taking the top spot. It was followed by several office properties including City National Plaza and One Wilshire in Los Angeles, which traded for $858 million and $439 million, respectively.
With sales volume on the rise, 23 metropolitan markets surpassed the $1 billion sales volume in the
Property Price Index. Apartments continued to
third quarter alone. Manhattan retained the top
outperform the other sectors, with prices gaining 14
spot, followed closely by Los Angeles and Houston.
percent. The average apartment unit price reached
Investor interest in secondary and tertiary markets
$107,240. Retail properties witnessed a 12 percent
also remained a strong trend in the third quarter.
price appreciation, trading for an average $170 psf.
Markets such as Nashville, Tenn., Phoenix, Seattle,
Prices for office buildings rose 9 percent, changing
and Denver closed sales in excess of $1.0 billion.
hands for an average of $233 psf. Finally, industrial properties posted average prices of $65 psf, a 1
With rising demand, prices advanced 9.3 percent in
percent decline from one year ago.
the third quarter according to RCA’s Commercial
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Commercial Real Estate Forecast Commercial property capitalization rates increased 7 basis points to an average 6.8 percent nationally across all property types, based on RCA data. For properties under $2.5 million, prices increased 4 percent year over year, based on survey data from the National Association of REALTORS®, while cap rates increased 50 basis points to an average 9.2 percent.
As asset values rose, new commercial distress continued on a downward trend. New distress in the third quarter accounted for $2.5 billion, a 30 percent decline from the same period in 2012. Workouts stayed constant during the quarter, averaging $9 to $10 billion, according to RCA.
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Capital Markets Diversification in lending sources continued, and capital availability increased as values of underlying assets rose. Even in the face of rising mortgage rates, spreads for commercial properties stayed even, due to increased lender competition.
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Commercial Real Estate Forecast Commercial mortgage-backed securities were a strong
markets had a bevy of financing choices, secondary
contender in the market, accounting for 24 percent of
markets found CMBS, government agencies, and
funding during the first half of the year. National banks
national banks to play the lead role in transaction
and government agencies accounted for 16 percent
financing. In tertiary markets, CMBS covered over
and 18 percent, respectively.
one-third of all financing, followed by government agencies. Capital availability for transactions under
However, the financing picture was not evenly focused
$2.5 million remained constrained, with cash as
across property types or markets. Based on RCA
the main source of financing for 33 percent of all
data, CMBS issuance made up the bulk of retail and
transactions, according to data from the National
hotel deals, representing 45 percent and 42 percent
Association of REALTORS®.
respectively of total volume. In the apartment sector, government agencies provided 54 percent of funding, dwarfing the next closest source, regional/local banks (11 percent). For office and industrial deals, the capital sources proved to be more evenly represented by the major lending groups. Meanwhile, while major
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Commercial Real Estate Forecast Commercial Real Estate Outlook In general, commercial sales and employment vary together. Given that the economy is currently expanding and producing additional jobs, the outlook for the commercial sector is positive, although possibly modest. The outlook for 2014 calls for continuing growth in commercial investments as commercial fundamentals ride an upward trajectory. With economic growth projected at 2.5 percent annual rate (swings in quarterly data notwithstanding), commercial markets will find absorption rising and lifting rents along with it. Although uncertainties remain about the federal budget and how businesses will absorb the Affordable Care Act, other segments of the economy are rising and as such it will likely mean stronger spending on the business and consumer sides.
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CCIM Market and Transaction Highlights CCIM members provided insights into their markets in a November 2013 survey. • 57% of CCIM members indicated more deals in 4Q13 compared to same period the year before. • Deals were a function of buyer demand: 61% of respondents indicated more inquiries related to buying, while 8% had more inquiries about wanting to sell. • Property prices continued to firm in 4Q13—32% of respondents reported prices similar to last year, while
46% reported higher prices. • Rents increased, with 48% of CCIMs indicating higher rents versus the prior year; 35% of respondents indicated similar rents year over year. • Cap rates were reported to be stable, with 56% of practitioners indicating rates in line with last year; 34% dealt with lower rates. • 45% of respondents expect rents and prices to move together in the next one to three years. 23% said rent growth will outpace price growth, while 32% indicated the opposite, with prices expected to outperform rents. • Interest rate increases tempered in 4Q13—47% of members think that Treasury yields will remain about the same; 23% of respondents indicated that Treasury yields will rise, but will only minimally impact cap rates due to the current spreads; and 11% of CCIMs said that Treasury yields will rise and force cap rates upward. • 27% of respondents indicated meaningful improvement in credit availability in the third quarter compared to last year, while 59% reported marginal improvement. • Current credit conditions are expected to improve, according to 51% of CCIM respondents, while 41% consider the current tightness to be the new normal.
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Commercial Property Sector Analysis The following highlights reflect CCIM members’ local and regional economic, transaction, and property market activity as measured in a November 2013 intelligence survey.
National Office Markets • Deal flow was higher in the third quarter for 64 percent of CCIM members. • Property prices were higher for 46 percent of CCIM, while 33 percent found them to be flat. • Cap rates were even for 64 percent of CCIMs, and lower for 28 percent of respondents. • Rental income was at similar levels for 41 percent of respondents; higher for 44 percent of CCIMs. • 62 percent of respondents had more serious inquiries related to buying.
Source: Real Capital Analytics
National Industrial Markets • Industrial deal flow was higher on a yearly basis for 56 percent of respondents. • Prices were even for 34 percent of CCIMs, and higher for 51 percent. • Cap rates were even for 62 percent, while 28 percent reported lower cap rates. • 53 percent of CCIM members reported higher rents.
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Commercial Property Sector Analysis
Source: Real Capital Analytics
National Retail Markets • Retail deals moved upwards for 51 percent of CCIMs. • Prices were unchanged for 36 percent of respondents, and higher for 42 percent. • Cap rates were the same for 51 percent of CCIMs, and lower for 37 percent. • Rental income increased for 46 percent of CCIM members.
Source: Real Capital Analytics
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Commercial Property Sector Analysis National Apartment Markets • 56 percent of CCIM members reported more deals in the second quarter than last year. • Prices were higher for 55 percent of respondents. • Cap rates stayed the same for 46 percent of members and lower for 42 percent. • Rental income rose for 53 percent of CCIMs.
Source: Real Capital Analytics
National Hotel Markets • Sales of hotels were higher for 75 percent of CCIMs. • Prices increased for 75 percent of respondents.
• Cap rates were the same for 50 percent of CCIMs and lower for 38 percent of members. • 88 percent reported more serious inquiries related to buying hotel properties.
Source: Real Capital Analytics
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CCIM Survey Results % 1. Compared to this time last year, how is your deal flow? > More deals than this time last year
56.9%
> About the same as this time last year
32.9%
> Fewer deals than this time last year
10.2%
2. Property price compared with prices one year ago. > The property price is higher now than if sold last year
46.2%
> About the same as last year
31.7%
> The property price is lower now than if sold last year
7.4%
> Cannot say because it is difficult to compare, or had no transaction this year
14.7%
3. Level of rental income (net rent after all concessions) compared with one year ago. > Rents are higher by more than 5%
11.9%
> Rents are higher by 1% to 5%
36.2%
> About the same as last year
34.6%
> Rents are lower by 1% to 5%
5.8%
> Rents are lower by more than 5%
2.7%
> Don’t know
8.8%
4. Cap rates compared with one year ago. > Higher cap rates
10.8%
> About the same
55.7%
> Lower cap rates
33.5%
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CCIM Survey Results % 5. Cap rates in your current market. > Apartment/Multifamily
6.6%
> Office CBD
7.7%
> Office Suburban
8.0%
> Industrial Warehouse
7.8%
> Industrial Flex
7.9%
> Retail
7.5%
> Hotel/Lodging
7.7%
> Development
9.1%
> Land
8.8%
6. Compared to this time last year, how would you qualify buyer interest? > More serious inquiries related to buying
61.3%
> Fewer serious inquiries related to buying
9.6%
> More serious inquiries related to selling
8.3%
> Fewer serious inquiries related to selling
2.9%
> About the same number of serious inquiries
17.9%
7. Current difference in perception (that is, the gap in cap rates) compared to one year ago. > The gap is narrowing with a better chance of completing a deal
45.6%
> The gap is about the same
43.1%
> The gap is widening with less chance of completing a deal
11.3%
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CCIM Survey Results % 8. Current financing conditions compared to conditions one year ago. > Credit availability has meaningfully improved from last year
27.1%
> Credit availability has only marginally improved
58.6%
> Credit availability is just as tight as last year with no improvement
11.4%
> Credit availability has turned for the worse and is even tighter than last year
2.9%
9. Expectation regarding financing over next 2 to 3 years. > The current tight conditions are the new normal because of new financial market regulations
40.8%
> Credit will be more readily accessible over time
50.9%
> Credit will become even more difficult to access over time
8.3%
10. Clients’ expectation related to future spread outlook over next 2 to 3 years. > Treasury yields will rise and force cap rates upward by roughly the same magnitude
10.8%
> Treasury yields will rise, but it will only minimally impact cap rates because of the current
22.7%
wide buffer zone (the gap between cap rate and Treasury yield) > Treasury yields will remain about the same for an extended period and cap rates will also
47.1%
remain about the same as now > Treasury yields will remain low for an extended period and cap rates will fall closer to
12.2%
historical spreads (from the current wide gap) > Cap rates will fall, independent of how Treasury yields move
5.3%
> Both Treasury yields and cap rates will fall
2.0%
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CCIM Survey Results % 11. Expectation regarding rent growth and property prices over the next 2 to 3 years. > Rent growth will outpace price growth
23.2%
> Rent growth will lag behind price growth
31.8%
> Both rent growth and price growth will move roughly the same amount
45.0%
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U.S. Metropolitan Economic Outlook City
State Score
Leading Indicator
Bankruptcy Filings (2013 vs. 2012)*
Unemployment Claims (2013 vs. 2012)**
Employed (Oct. 2013 vs. Oct. 2012)
Total Permits (2013 vs. 2012)**
Phoenix
AZ
B
75.00
-20%
-7%
2%
23%
Tucson
AZ
B
84.38
-20%
-7%
1%
26%
Los Angeles
CA
B
84.38
-25%
-8%
2%
31%
San Bernardino/ Riverside
CA
B
84.38
-25%
-8%
1%
57%
Sacramento
CA
B
84.38
-25%
-8%
1%
49%
San Diego
CA
A
87.50
-25%
-8%
2%
9%
San Francisco
CA
B
78.13
-25%
-8%
1%
23%
San Jose
CA
B
75.00
-25%
-8%
2%
13%
Colorado Springs
CO
A
90.63
-13%
-5%
1%
19%
Denver
CO
C
71.88
-13%
-5%
3%
45%
Hartford
CT
A
93.75
-14%
-4%
1%
12%
Washington
DC
C
68.75
-6%
17%
1%
20%
Jacksonville
FL
C
68.75
-7%
-10%
2%
6%
Miami
FL
C
68.75
-7%
-10%
2%
65%
Orlando
FL
C
65.63
-7%
-10%
3%
42%
Tampa-St.
FL
C
68.75
-7%
-10%
3%
30%
GA
C
65.63
-10%
-14%
3%
68%
Petersburg Atlanta
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U.S. Metropolitan Economic Outlook City
State Score
Leading Indicator
Bankruptcy Filings (2013 vs. 2012)*
Unemployment Claims (2013 vs. 2012)**
Employed (Oct. 2013 vs. Oct. 2012)
Total Permits (2013 vs. 2012)**
Chicago
IL
B
75.00
-3%
-1%
1%
34%
Indianapolis
IN
B
84.38
-5%
-13%
1%
38%
Lexington
KY
C
68.75
-9%
-9%
2%
56%
Louisville
KY
B
75.00
-9%
-9%
2%
1%
New Orleans
LA
B
81.25
-2%
-20%
1%
16%
Boston
MA
A
87.50
-26%
-5%
2%
32%
Baltimore
MD
C
68.75
-4%
-6%
1%
25%
Detroit
MI
A
87.50
-14%
-9%
1%
39%
Minneapolis
MN
B
75.00
-15%
-7%
2%
29%
St. Louis
MO
B
81.25
-5%
-9%
0%
4%
Kansas City
MO
C
68.75
-5%
-9%
1%
55%
Greensboro/ Winston-Salem
NC
A
87.50
-12%
-18%
2%
-7%
Raleigh-Durham
NC
B
75.00
-12%
-18%
2%
7%
Charlotte
NC
B
75.00
-12%
-18%
3%
23%
Omaha
NE
A
87.50
-9%
-11%
1%
27%
Albuquerque
NM
A
87.50
-9%
-25%
1%
19%
Las Vegas
NV
B
78.13
-25%
-7%
2%
23%
Buffalo
NY
B
84.38
-15%
-3%
1%
91%
CCIM QUARTERLY MARKET TRENDS
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® AND CCIM INSTITUTE
25
U.S. Metropolitan Economic Outlook City
State Score
Leading Indicator
Bankruptcy Filings (2013 vs. 2012)*
Unemployment Claims (2013 vs. 2012)**
Employed (Oct. 2013 vs. Oct. 2012)
Total Permits (2013 vs. 2012)**
New York
NY
B
84.38
-15%
-3%
2%
35%
Cleveland
OH
B
81.25
-7%
-11%
-1%
42%
Columbus
OH
B
78.13
-7%
-11%
1%
40%
Cincinnati
OH
B
84.38
-7%
-11%
1%
36%
Oklahoma City
OK
B
75.00
-11%
-20%
2%
41%
Tulsa
OK
A
90.63
-11%
-20%
2%
0%
Portland
OR
B
81.25
-15%
-13%
2%
40%
Pittsburgh
PA
B
84.38
-9%
-3%
2%
29%
Philadelphia
PA
B
84.38
-9%
-3%
1%
18%
Providence
RI
A
96.88
-16%
-7%
1%
21%
Charleston
SC
C
71.88
-6%
-11%
1%
-2%
Columbia
SC
A
87.50
-6%
-11%
1%
8%
Greenville
SC
B
81.25
-6%
-11%
1%
38%
Knoxville
TN
B
75.00
-4%
-8%
1%
55%
Nashville
TN
D
62.50
-4%
-8%
3%
40%
Chattanooga
TN
B
81.25
-4%
-8%
0%
16%
Memphis
TN
C
71.88
-4%
-8%
0%
6%
Austin
TX
C
68.75
-13%
0%
3%
19%
Dallas
TX
B
75.00
-13%
0%
3%
18%
CCIM QUARTERLY MARKET TRENDS
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® AND CCIM INSTITUTE
26
U.S. Metropolitan Economic Outlook City
State Score
Leading Indicator
Bankruptcy Filings (2013 vs. 2012)*
Unemployment Claims (2013 vs. 2012)**
Employed (Oct. 2013 vs. Oct. 2012)
Total Permits (2013 vs. 2012)**
Houston
TX
B
75.00
-13%
0%
3%
26%
San Antonio
TX
B
81.25
-13%
0%
1%
5%
Salt Lake City
UT
B
78.13
-10%
-8%
2%
33%
Richmond
VA
B
81.25
-13%
-8%
1%
32%
Seattle
WA
B
78.13
-10%
-10%
2%
5%
Milwaukee
WI
B
84.38
-10%
-10%
0%
8%
Birmingham
AL
D
62.50
-3%
-10%
-1%
-6%
Little Rock
AR
B
75.00
-4%
-10%
1%
-35%
New Haven
CT
B
84.38
-14%
-4%
0%
13%
Wichita
KS
B
84.38
-8%
-2%
0%
24%
Rochester
NY
B
84.38
-15%
-3%
1%
-4%
Syracuse
NY
A
87.50
-15%
-3%
1%
-11%
Dayton
OH
B
81.25
-7%
-11%
-1%
28%
Ventura County
CA
A
87.50
-25%
-8%
2%
8%
Westchester
NY
A
87.50
-15%
-3%
0%
-5%
Norfolk/Hampton Roads
VA
B
84.38
-13%
-8%
2%
26%
Tacoma
WA
B
84.38
-10%
-10%
0%
5%
Orange County
CA
B
78.13
-25%
-8%
0%
73%
CCIM QUARTERLY MARKET TRENDS
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® AND CCIM INSTITUTE
27
U.S. Metropolitan Economic Outlook City
State Score
Leading Indicator
Bankruptcy Filings (2013 vs. 2012)*
Unemployment Claims (2013 vs. 2012)**
Employed (Oct. 2013 vs. Oct. 2012)
Total Permits (2013 vs. 2012)**
Palm Beach
FL
C
68.75
-7%
-10%
2%
17%
Fairfield County
CT
A
87.50
-14%
-4%
-1%
10%
Fort Lauderdale
FL
C
68.75
-7%
-10%
3%
65%
Fort Worth
TX
B
75.00
-13%
0%
4%
18%
Long Island
NY
B
84.38
-15%
-3%
2%
35%
Northern New Jersey
NJ
C
68.75
-14%
20%
2%
33%
Oakland-East Bay
CA
B
84.38
-25%
-8%
1%
23%
Suburban Maryland
MD
C
71.88
-4%
-6%
2%
20%
Suburban Virginia
VA
B
84.38
-13%
-8%
0%
20%
Durham
NC
C
71.88
-12%
-18%
3%
0%
Raleigh-Cary
NC
B
75.00
-12%
-18%
2%
7%
Central New Jersey
NJ
C
65.63
-14%
20%
-1%
54%
* October 2012 through September 2013 vs. October 2011 through September 2012 **November 2012 through October 2013 vs. November 2011 through October 2012
CCIM QUARTERLY MARKET TRENDS
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® AND CCIM INSTITUTE
28
Sponsors CCIM INSTITUTE Since 1969, the Chicago-based CCIM Institute has conferred the Certified Commercial Investment Member (CCIM) designation to commercial real estate and allied professionals through an extensive curriculum of 200 classroom hours and professional experiential requirements. Currently, there are 9,000 CCIMs in 1,000 markets in the U.S. and 31 countries worldwide. Another 3,000 practitioners are pursuing the designation, making the Institute one of the largest commercial real estate networks in the world. An affiliate of the National Association of REALTORS®, the CCIM Institute’s recognized curriculum, networking programs, and the powerful technology tool, Site To Do Business (site analysis and demographics resource), positively impact and influence the commercial real estate industry. Visit www.ccim.com for more information. CCIM INSTITUTE 2014 EXECUTIVE LEADERSHIP B.K. Allen, CCIM Interim Executive Vice President/CEO
[email protected]
Karl Landreneau, CCIM President
Mark Macek, CCIM President-Elect
Steven W. Moreira, CCIM First Vice President
Craig Blorstad, CCIM Treasurer
CCIM Institute 430 North Michigan Ave., Suite 800 Chicago, IL 60611 312-321-4460 www.ccim.com
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® The Mission of the National Association of REALTORS® Research Division is to collect and disseminate timely, accurate and comprehensive real estate data and to conduct economic analysis in order to inform and engage members, consumers, and policy makers and the media in a professional and accessible manner. The Research Division monitors and analyzes economic indicators, including gross domestic product, retail sales, industrial production, producer price index, and employment data that impact commercial markets over time. Additionally, NAR Research examines how changes in the economy affect the commercial real estate business, and evaluates regulatory and legislative policy proposals for their impact on REALTORS®, their clients and America’s property owners. The Research Division provides several products covering commercial real estate including: • Commercial Real Estate Outlook • Commercial Real Estate Quarterly Market Survey • Commercial Real Estate Lending Survey • Commercial Member Profile To find out about other products from NAR’s Research Division, visit www.realtor.org/research-and-statistics. NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® RESEARCH DIVISION National Association of REALTORS® 500 New Jersey Ave. N.W. Washington, D.C. 20001 800-874-6500 www.realtors.org ©2014 The CCIM Institute and National Association of REALTORS®. All rights reserved. Lawrence Yun, PhD Sr. Vice President, Chief Economist
[email protected]
George Ratiu Director, Quantitative & Commercial Research
[email protected]
CCIM QUARTERLY MARKET TRENDS
Ken Fears Director, Regional Economics & Housing Finance Policy
[email protected]
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® AND CCIM INSTITUTE
29
Contributors Lisa Sands
VIP Realty-Commercial
Fort Myers
FL
Randy Summers
Davis Equity Realty
Weslaco
TX
Mike Foster
Coldwell Banker Commercial
Grand Junction
CO
Ralph Duarte
Sperry Van Ness
Bethesda
MD
Robert W. Drayton
City of Charlotte
Charlotte
NC
Christopher M. Gibbons Venture Commercial
Dallas
TX
Charles A Larkin
Diversified Real Estate, LLC
Watertown
SD
Vladimir Golik
Keller Williams Realty
Miami
FL
Gary Tang
Hannah Investment, Inc.
Albany
CA
Aaron Banard
Cushman & Wakefield Northmarq
Mendota Heights
MN
Michael Wax
Industrial Park Associates
Oxnard
CA
Brad Cooper
Nai Brannen Goddard
Atlanta
GA
John Quinn
McEnearney Commercial
Alexandria
VA
Kenneth Kujawa
CENTURY 21 Signature Realty
Saginaw
MI
James Conklin
7D Commercial Real Estate
Floyds Knobs
IN
Maria Palmar
Jolie Powell Realty
Port Jefferson
NY
Angie Sumner
Fowler Commercial, LLC
Prescott Valley
AZ
Andie Edmonds
ARIS Group
Bend
OR
Craig Evans
Cassidy Turley
New York
NY
Heidi Ho
Century 21 All Islands
Honolulu
HI
Dan Stauffer
McCoy Corporation
San Marcos
TX
Mark Rykovich
Clarity Strategic Opportunities, LLC
Naperville
IL
Kenneth Krawczyk
K.S.K. Services, Inc.
Pewaukee
WI
Pam Rushing
Coldwell Banker Commercial
Salem
OR
Ann Samuelson
Suntree Inc., Realtors
Seaside
OR
Sharon Carz
REO Property Specialists
Los Angeles
CA
Paul Mader
Michael Tanzillo & Company
Castro Valley
CA
Larry Goldman
Remax Commercial
Overland Park
KS
Bogumila Kowalec
All Connect Realty
Port Saint Lucie
FL
Dale Dockins
North Bay Commercial Real Estate
Santa Rosa
CA
David Brooks
Lawler-Wood, LLC
Knoxville
TN
Robert Phillips
Nevada Real Estate LLC
Las Vegas
NV
Janet Robinson
Coldwell Banker Commercial NRT
Sarasota
FL
Lydia Bennett
CRE West Coast, LLC
Bellingham
WA
Eugene Heathman
Garland Realty and Investment
Ruidoso
NM
Scott Perkins
NAI James E.Hanson
Hackensack
NJ
David Boyd
Boyd Commercial/CORFAC International Houston
Michael Connors
CORT Business Services Corporation
Chantilly
VA
Donald A Ruizzo
Assist 2 Sell Ace Full Service Realty
St. Cloud
FL
Jim Otis
The Otis Company
Omaha
NE
George S. Tate Jr.
NAI Knoxville
Knoxville
TN
TX
Paul Lepine
James P McCrory Co., Inc.
Fort Lauderdale
FL
Herb Tousley
Shenehon Company
Minneapolis
MN
Alberto Jauregui
Nevada Land
Las Vegas
NV
Brandon Brown
T.L. Brown Properties
Jackson
MS
Jan A. Sell
Sell & Associates, Inc.
Tempe
AZ
Elgin Weaver
First community credit union
Houston
TX
Mel Bernstein
RE/MAX Optima
Oviedo
FL
Dave Winder
Cushman & Wakefield | Commerce
Boise
ID
Ryan Marn
Colliers International
Honolulu
HI
Chris Schreiber
Kiemle & Hagood
Spokane
WA
Rene' Nelson
Pacwest Commercial Real Estate
Eugene
OR
Lloyd "Skip" Miller
Morris Realty Group
Memphis
TN
Petra Della Valle
Loewe-Adler International, Inc.
Addison
TX
Jeff Hays
RB Murray Company
Springfield
MO
Hassan Jadali
Cassidy Turley
St. Louis
MO
Buddy Rancese
Mutual Trust Corporate Real Estate
Austin
TX
Aziz Khatri
KW Commercial
CA
Linda Cinelli
LC Realty
North Branch
NJ
Patrick Wilcox
Colliers International
NJ
D'Arcy Browning
RE/MAX Real Estate (Central)
Calgary
AK
Steve Eisenshtadt
Friedman Integrated Real Estate Solutions Farmington Hills
MI
Wes Hallmark
Sperry Van Ness / Hallmark & Assoc.
Lubbock
TX
Noel Andress
Sunmsrk Realty Inc.
Fort Mers
FL
Parsippany
John P. Garruto
Capital Realty Consultants
Marlton
NJ
Brian Resendez
Sperry Van Ness
Portland
OR
Shannon Mar
Guarantee Real Estate
Fresno
CA
Melanie Wollenberg
Equity
Columbus
OH
Gary Cornelssen
Marcor Investment Properties, Inc.
San Diego
CA
Jeff Fritz
Ellis-Gibson Development Group
Virginia Beach
VA
Paul Bell
Prudential Americana Group
Las Vegas
NV
Steve Jacquemin
S.J. Financial Group
St. Louis
MO
Nick Nicketakis
CBSRE
Waukegan
IL
Joe Milkes
Milkes Realty Valuation
Dallas
TX
Greg Ogin
Clark Commercial Group
Kailua Kona
HI
Michael Shaffer
Skogman commercial
Cedar Rapids
IA
Claude Boiron
Coldwell Banker Terrequity Realty
Toronto
OH
Junko Masubayashi
Newmark Grubb Knight Frank
El Segundo
CA
Sica Nacu
Southern Realty Enterprises
Longwood
FL
Brett McDermott
Latitude Commercial Realty
Schererville
IN
Mark Howe
Triangle Real Estate Group
Raleigh
NC
Bob Swain
NAI
Seattle
WA
Anne Sieg
KW Commercial
Indep.,
MO
Amanda Reeves
Lee & Asspciates
Charleston
SC
Mat Kolding
Kolding Commercial Brokerage & Invest- Parker
CO
John McLaughlin
McLaughlin Investments, Inc.
Boston
MA
Darolyn Wall
KW Commercial
Phoenix
AZ
ments, Inc. David Jackson
The Jackson Company
Frisco
TX
Tony Baldwin
Baldwin Realty Group
Carver
MA
Brian Rosteck
Skogman Commercial Group
Cedar Rapids
IA
Philip Corriher
Chambers Group
Charlotte
NC
James Barse
NAI Latter & Blum
New Orleans
LA
Anthony Alan Tapie
Grandbridge
Atlanta
GA
Aida Yeghiazarian
RE/MAX Optima
Glendale
CA
Kathie Bahman
Gorman & Company, Inc.
Oregon
WI
Nick Probst+
Corporate Realty Advisers, LLC
Tulsa
OK
Daniel Zelonker
Real Miami Commercial RE LLC
Miami/Coral Gables FL
Roger A. Delisle Jr.
Island Associates Real Estate Inc.
Smithtown
NY
Barry Bounds
KW Commercial Real Estate, LLC
Denver
Richard Miranda
KW Commercial
Houston
TX
Dan Stiebel
Coldwell Banker Schmidt
Traverse City
MI
Howard Wolf
Wolf Group Properties, LLC
Tulsa
OK
John Levinsohn
Levi Investment Realty, Inc.
Indianapolis
IN
George Spirrison
Adelphia Properties
Oak Brook
IL
Ara Karapetian
Dilbeck Commercial
La Canada
CA
Ben Cherry
Manor Real Estate
St. Louis
MO
Greg Herbert
Sperry Van Ness
Eugene
OR
Perry Horton
REOC Austin
Austin
TX
Jen Hudson
WRE/M2
Everett
WA
CCIM QUARTERLY MARKET TRENDS
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® AND CCIM INSTITUTE
CO
30
Contributors Max Finkle
ReMax Renaissance Realtors
Chattanooga
TN
Edison Vasquez
ComReal Miami
Miami
FL
Adam Von Romer
Fitzgerald Group
Fort Lauderdale
FL
Patrick Bell
Dunes Properties of Charleston, Inc.
Charleston
SC
Bill Early
Copaken Brooks
Kansas City
MO
Kelly Keesee
KW Commercial
Lubbock
TX
Steven Cohen
Nautilus Capital
Greenville,SC
SC
Bob Rourke
Premises Group
Chicago
IL
Lester Liao
Kennedy Heights Shopping Centre
Delta
WA
Peter Cotsirilos
National Realty Network
Arlington Heights
IL
Gerilyn Gleason
NAI Daus
Cleveland
OH
Scott McClave
The Bascom Group
Irvine
CA
Mark Phillips
Newmark Grubb Levy Strange Beffort
Fountain Hills
AZ
Jordan Wang
Asia Pacific Capital
Tony Puente
Fairchild Partners, Inc
Miami
FL
Brian Phillips
Randall Commercial Group, LLC
Oxford
MS
Colleen Berthelot
Corporate Realty
New Orleans
LA
John McClure
McClure Partners
Dallas
TX
Don Wallace
Callander Commercial
Portage
MI
Mike Oliver
Prudential Commercial Properties
Billings
MT
Anthony Strauss
Colliers
Minneapolis
MN
Russ Wehner
Russ Wehner Realty Co.
Denver
CO
Gary Brown
Gary Brown & Associates, Inc.
Houston
TX
Richard Stern
Midwest Commercial Real Estate, LLC
Madison
WI
Steve Tyrrell
NAI Aguer Havelock
Sacramento
CA
Laura Hagan
H4
Fort Worth
TX
George Tanghongs
Lee & Associates
Dallas
TX
Dewey Struble
Dewey Struble CCIM
Reno
NV
John Gilbert
Gilbert & Ezelle Real Estate Services
Savannah
GA
Walt Clements
Clements Realty Advisors
Glenview
IL
Jason Richards
Novi Real Estate
Carlsbad
CA
Greg Clauson
Coldwell Banker Commercial
Destin
FL
Martin Blum
CBRE
Richmond
VA
Peter Rasmusson
Lee & Associates
Elmwood Park
NJ
Neil Warshafsky
Royal LePage Real Estate Services Ltd.,
Toronto
ON
David Dunn
Sperry Van Ness / Dunn Commercial
Arlington
TX
John Khami
Parkwood Properties
Troy
MI
Stephen M. Soble
Ernest Soble Commercial Properties, Inc. San Antonio
TX
Nick Eyhorn
Coldwell Banker Commmercial Rick
Lubbock
TX
David Victorio
Coldwell Banker Commercial NRT
Mansfield
TX
Brokerage
CA
Canup Realtors
Bob Strzalka
Coldwell Banker Commercial
Haddonfield
NJ
Michael Armanious
Keller Williams
University Place
WA
Skip Rosenstock
USFP
Kansas City
MO
Justin Clark
Caldwell Companies
Houston
TX
Kasey Rohde
JR Fulton & Associates, Inc.
Norman
OK
Randy Atkin
Cushman Wakefield Commerce
Salt Lake City
UT
Jennifer Long
Re/Max Bastrop Area
Bastrop
TX
Andy Bell
Anderson Bell, Inc.
Atlanta
GA
Monica Rafferty
Coldwell Banker Commercial
Salt lake City
UT
Hector Martinez
River Oaks Properties
El Paso
TX
Andy Levy
The Meg Companies
Londonderry
NH
Alan Stamm
Century 21 Consolidated
Las Vegas
NV
Julian Rotnofsky
United Commercial Realty
San Antonio
TX
Brian Wolford
Paradigm Tax Group
Houston
TX
Nancy Reimann
Realty USA
Buffalo
NY
Shawn Massey
The Shopping Center Group
Memphis
TN
Bismarck
ND
Stanley Watson
Watson Real Estate
Ann Arbor
MI
Cheryl Dixon
Dixon Commercial Properties
Southfield
MI
Jeffrey Bentz
Cassidy Turley
Kansas City
MO
Gerald LaHay
Levin Commercial Real Estate, LLC
Atlantic CIty
NJ
Mark Howe
Triangle Real Estate Group
Raleigh
NC
Andrew Joyner
The Simpson Company
Gainesville
GA
W. J. Cotter
Absolute Investment & Realty Services
Tampa
FL
Hal Alpert
Alpert Commercial Real Estate
Vacaville
CA
Paul Fetscher
Great American Brokerage
Long Beach
NY
Thomas Mertens
Omni Development
Albany
NY
Rick Gonzalez
Crosby & Associates
Tavares
FL
Louise Frazier
Blue Ridge Realty, Inc.
Knoxville
TN
Anthony Marshall
VIP Properties
Rapid City
SD
Chris Grear
Colliers
Nashville
TN
Soozi Jones Walker
Commercial Executives Real Estate
Las Vegas
NV
Gregg Waller
Long & Foster Commercial
Vienna
VA
Sam Perlman
Adams & Company
Sandy Springs
GA
Michael R. Bradley
Bradley Commercial Real Estate
Kirkland
WA
Samuel Zonfrillo
KW Commercial
Plainville
MA
Ricky Paradise
NorthPoint Development
Kansas City
MO
Phil Rose
Twin Rivers Capital
Charleston
SC
Jay Steinberg
Block Hawley Commercial Real Estate
Chesterfield
MO
Stephen Luta
Stephen Luta, CCIM
Cape Coral
FL
Jon Matta
MGM Realty Group
Bedford
NH
Brian D Harris
REOC San Antonio
San Antonio
TX
Beverly Keith
Trinity Partners
Raleigh
NC
George Polydoros
George Polydoros Co., Inc
Houston
TX
Michael Hui
HMA Global
Brea
CA
Ashley Elkin
Studley
Washington
DC
John Floyd
Crye-Leike Commercial Property
Brentwood
TN
Thomas Miller
Miller Industrial properties
Reno
NV
Bob Hasan
GE Capital Real Estate
Philadelphia
PA
Jorge L. Pagan
Management
Services
Services
Chris Wallace
RC Commercial Realty
Plymouth Meeting
PA
Chris Spear
ComReal Miami, Inc
Doral
FL
Bradford
Madrona Real Estate Srvs, LLC
Seattle
WA
Marc Barlow
Philip M. Barlow & Assoc. LLC
Gilbert
AZ
CJ Snyder
Ozarks Realty
Flippin
AR
Lorin Schultz
NAI Cummins
Akron
OH
Maire Herron
AIC
Jackson
WY
Josh Randolph
Colliers International
Birmingham
AL
Leon Titus
CBRE
Tacoma
WA
Brian T. Barson
Cornerstone Company
Las Vegas
NV
Jeff Foster
Newmark Grubb Knight Frank
Newport Beach
CA
Ross Hedlund
Frauenshuh
Minneapolis
MN
Le Anne Thomas
Paradigm Tax Group
Woodland Hills
CA
Alan Darner
Kellogg Company
Battle Creek
MI
Aaron McDermott
Latitude Commercial
Schererville
IN
Bob Kane
Bull Realty
Atlanta
GA
Howard Meier
High Peak
Toronto
UT
Todd Hamilton
Cutler Commercial
Scottsdale
AZ
William Ellis
Camden Commercial Real Estate Services San Antonio
TX
David Ashford
Southpace Properties Inc.
Bimringham
AL
James Weld
Value Property LLC
NV
Dana Coronado
KW Commercial
Studio City
CA
CCIM QUARTERLY MARKET TRENDS
Las Vegas
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® AND CCIM INSTITUTE
31
Contributors Tim Churchwell
Exit Realty Central Commercial and
Norfolk
VA
Special Markets
Mike Stuhlmiller
Stuhlmiller Realty
Hayden
ID
John Haney
Trotter & Company
Knoxville
TN
Lee Greer, Jr
Sperry Van Ness Lexington
Lexington
KY
Robert DiPietrae
Hendricks-Berkadia
Seattle
WA
Karen Higgins
WestMark Commercial
Lubbock
TX
Ben Walin
Commercial properties of maui
Wailuku
HI
Rob Borny
HFF
Florham Park
NJ
Kevin McGowan
Violet Tiger Corporate Real Estate
Philadelphia
PA
Mike Carroll
Sealy Realty Co., Inc.
Tuscaloosa
AL
David P. Ellermann
Ellermann Commercial Brokerage
Chicago
IL
Jim Helsel
Helsel, Inc., Realtors
Harrisburg
PA
John Leonard
Marcus & Millichap
Atlanta
GA
Juan Teran
Chapman Lindsey Commercial Real Estate Tucson
Patrick Doherty
Carolina Commercial Investment
Wilmington
NC
Anthony Rosetta
Fenway Properties
San Diego
CA
Alex Rodriguez
Commercial Realty Solutions
Miami
Jeff Tompkins
CBRE
Denver
Tony Carlson
Grandbridge Real Estate Capital
Minneapolis
Mike Milovick
Royal LePage Grand Valley Realty
Kitchener
Bill Kutsogiannis
Janus Realty
Regina
SD
Lily Seymour
Gershman Commercial Real Estate
st Louis
MO
Charles Wiercinski
McLennan Commercial Properties
Park Ridge
James Schutter
Newmark Grubb Knight Frank
Chandra Wright
KW Commercial
Michael Martz
Hayes Commercial Group
Beth Chappel Mike King
Properties
Services
AZ
Services LLC Paul Sipp
Turkey Run, Inc.
Columbus
Jeffrey W. Eales
Birtcher Anderson Realty, LLC
San Juan Capistrano CA
FL
Eric Higgins
Colliers International
Birmingham
AL
CO
Lee Ehlers
Investors Realty, Inc
Omaha
NE
MN
Travis Newton
Florida Blue (BCBS)
Jacksonville
FL
Melissa Molyneaux
Colliers International
Reno
NV
Edward Herbert
HCR Associates Realtors
Nashville
TN
Stanley Watson
Watson Real Estate
Ann Arbor
MI
IL
Bradley Alton
NAI Commercial
Edmonton
Chicago
IL
Michael Schout
Cushman & Wakefield Waterloo Region Ltd. Waterloo
Vienna
MD
Nick Miner
Orion Investments
Scottsdale
AZ
Santa Barbara
CA
Todd Clarke
NM Apartment Advisors Inc.
Albuquerque
NM
CBRE
Stamford
CT
Jeff Tompkins
CBRE
Denver
CO
Kidder Mathews
Seattle
WA
Marc Veras
RE Commercial LLC
Green Bay/Appleton WI
Gary Catterton
Catterton General, LLC
Charleston
SC
Lisa Engel
CBRE
Camarillo
CA
Robert Riddle
Riddle Associates, Inc.
Chesapeake
VA
Nancy Fish
Park Place Real Estate
Kalamazoo
MI
Mary Martin Miller
Miller Consulting Group, LLC
Portland;Salem
OR
Tom Schmidt
Colliers International
Redwood City
CA
Rosalie Keszler
The Stone Group
Austin
TX
PJ Behr
CNL Commercial Real Estate
Orlando
FL
Robin Civish
Voit
Las Vegas
NV
David Schnitzer
Venture
Dallas
TX
Simeon Spirrison
Adelphia Properties
Oak Brook
IL
Sherry Palermo
Zann Commercial Brokerage
Houston
TX
Bruce Kahn
The Foundation Group
Seattle
WA
Zachary Fleming
Ryan, LLC
San Antonio
TX
Dave Worden
Windward Commercial Real Estate
Half Moon Bay
CA
Chase Collier
Highwoods Properties
Tampa
FL
Gary Hunter
Westlake Associates, Inc.
Seattle
WA
Realty House Commercial Properties, Inc. Fort Walton Beach FL
Seervices Jennifer Pollock
Synovus Bank
Margaret Larsen David Aikens
OH
CA
Orlando
FL
Kevin Bethea
Larsen Baker LLC
Tucson
AZ
Bob Rosenberg
Inve$tnet Inc.
Sacramento
CA
KW Commercial
Louisville
KY
John Khami
Parkwood Properties
Troy
MI
Dan Dowd
Cole Taylor Bank
Chicago
IL
Christy DeVinaspre
Western Idaho Realty
Nampa
ID
Gayle Berkbigler
KW Commercial
Austin
TX
Edward Schmidt
NAI MIAMI
MIAMI
FL
Jay Pittard
Jordan REA
Southern Pines
NC
Holly Coats
KW Commercial
Amarillo
TX
Joe Awad
RE/MAX Leaders
Denver
CO
Brian Sorrentino
ROI Commercial Real Estate, Inc.
Las Vegas
NV
David Dunn
Hike Real Estate PC
Bellevue
NE
David Gleason
Van Eaton & Romero
Lafayette
LA
Dan Messina
KW Commercial
Concord
MA
Brad Welborn
Colonial Square Realty, Inc.
Fort Myers
FL
Kent Taylor
Taylor Commercial Real Estate
Austin
TX
Matt MacCaughelty
Cardinal Real Estate Partners
Charlotte
NC
Keith Thomas
RE/MAX Parkside
Olympia
WA
Dalerie Wu
STC Management
Whittier
CA
Thomas Knaub
Colliers International
Phoenix
AZ
Kevin Lynch
Sperry Van Ness Commercial Real Estate Chicago
Kim Reagan
Priority One
El Paso
TX
IL
Advisors
Rob Millman
Prudential Indiana Realty
Seymour
IN
Matt Eaton
RE/MAX Commercial Brokers Inc
Metairie
LA
Lee Wagner
Site Selection Group, LLC
Dallas
TX
David Ford
CBRE
Cleveland
OH
Jim Tucker
NetWorks Commercial Real Estate
Richmond
VA
Eric Rehn
Kennedy Wilson Properties Group
Vallejo
CA
Jennifer Martin
Sperry Van Ness Commercial Advisors
Salem
OR
Pam Rushing
Coldwell Banker Commercail Mt West
Salem
OR
D. Scott Smith
Prudential
Baltimore
MD
Topher Thompson
CBC Thompson Realty Group
Lincoln
NE
Jose Maria Serrano
New Miami Realty Corp.
Miami
FL
James Roscoe High
Southeast Venture, LLC
Nashville
TN
Shane Hoey
Neil Walter Co
Kent
WA
Ben Cherry
Manor Real Estate
St. Louis
MO
Heidi Adams
Sperry Van Ness | R M Moore
Knoxville
TN
Edward Bowden
Virginia Land Ventures, LLC
Richmond
VA
Brian Erickson
NAI Optimum
West Des Moines
IA
Robert Avary
Alta Commercial Real Estate
Houston
TX
Susan Cerone
Realtyusa
Albany
NY
Trent Grothues
Pollan Hausman Real Estate Services, LLC Houston
TX
Lang Motes
ICO Commercial
Houston
TX
Beth DuPont
Winkler & DuPont
Portland
OR
Allison Thompson
Cedar Hill EDC
Cedar Hill
TX
Rick Clark
Integrity Bank
Houston
TX
CCIM QUARTERLY MARKET TRENDS
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® AND CCIM INSTITUTE
32
Contributors Andrew Joyner
The Simpson Company
Gainesville
GA
Hema Virani
DJK Commercial
New York
NY
Dietrich Brandt
Dietrich Realty
Santa Cruz
CA
Lawrence L. Davis
Benson and Mangold Commercial
Easton
MD
Kathleen Boswell
Coldwell Banker Commercial
Charleston
SC
Roger Gray
Capital Asset Properties, LC
San Antonio
TX
James Palmer
Re/Max Metro-city Realty Ltd
Ottawa
Casey Keitchen
Bull Realty
Atlanta
GA
Daren Hebold
Lux Realty Group
Portland
ME
Blair Gilbert
KW Commercial
Exton
PA
Dan Robinson
Lidstrom Commercial Realtors
Mankato
MN
Will Barden
Colliers International | Memphis
Memphis, TN
TN
Columbia
SC
Tatum Moore
iCORE Global - Austin
Austin
TX
Julie Teague Charles Parmelli
Cassidy Turley
Chatham
NJ
William Robinette
Select Properties Company
Hayden Lake
ID
Alger LaHood
LaHood Realty
Grosse Pointe
MI
Kevin Geraghty
Windermere Whatcom Inc
Bellingham
WA
William Butler
Engel Realty Company, LLC
Birmingham
AL
Justin Neal
The Viking Team Realty
Longood
FL
John Simpson Jr.
Prudential Simpson & Assoc.
Fredericksburg
VA
Gregory C. Cassel
High Real Estate Group LLC
Lancaster
PA
Michael Houge
Transwestern
Minneapolis
MN
Steven Martens
NAI Martens
wichita
KS
David Jackson
The Jackson Company
Frisco
TX
Jim Williams
REMAX Capital Inc
Windsor
Ralph Pace
U.S. Bank
Denver
CO
Homer W Hines
HWH Properties
Chesnee
AJ Dugal
Century 21 Clemens & Sons
Rocky Hill
CT
Frank Weiskopf
Realty Executives
Maryville/Knoxville TN
Rich Rhatigan
Atherton & Associates
Shelton
CT
Bobbie Mastracci
Phoenix West Commercial
Litchfield Park
Ryan Johnson
Johnson Group
Reno
NV
Robin Santiago
Kidder Mathews
San Jose
CA
Drew Basham
RE/MAX Affiliates Realty Commercial
Little Rock
AR
Alejandra Matthes
Re/Max Masters
Glendora
CA
James Marian
Chapman Lindsey
Tucson
AZ
Woods
SC
James Kirby
Walmart Realty
Bentonville
AR
Hal Alpert
Alpert Copmmercial Real Estate
Vacaville
CA
Darrell Robb
Encon Commercial
Santa Fe Springs
CA
David Roth
Remax Alliance Group
Sarasota
FL
Wes Schollenberg
Avison Young
Winnipeg
Deb Stevens
The Stevens Group
Boston
MA
Harvey Kolin
Corporate Commercial Realty
Melville
NY
Chad Heer
RE/MAX Commercial
St Paul
MN
Cindy Feinberg
Feinberg Real Estate Advisors, LLC
Allentown
PA
Michele Dugan
Roundy's Supermarkets, Inc.
Milwaukee
WI
Amy Mills
Steve Fineberg & Associates, Inc.
Bentonville
AR
Steve Mitchell
KW Commercial
Jacksonville
NC
Dale Donovan
KW Commercial
Orlando
FL
Vicki Hodge
Walgreens
Wauwatosa
WI
Angela Harwell
Lakeland Commercial Realty, LLC
Lakeland
FL
Lauren Rodes
Colliers International
Phoenix
AZ
Joe P. Rickett
Douglas Advisory
Dallas
TX
Paul Rosado
Commercial Real Estate Broker
Tucson
AZ
Eric Wang
Yuanta Asset Management Co.
Taipei
Rob Lukemeyer III
Baseline, Inc.
Carmel
IN
Michael Sorrentino
Century 21 Franklin Street
Lenox
MA
Matt Boehlke
Regus
Maple Grove
MN
S. Susan Self
Ritter Management, Inc.
Irving
TX
James Mangas
Best Corporate Real Estate
Upper Arlington
OH
Raisa Galper
Gardner, Realtors
New Orleans
LA
Robert Powell
Powell Realty Advisors, LLC
Dallas
TX
Burt Polson
ACRES Real Estate Services, Inc.
Napa
CA
Zach Schwarzmiller
Coast Sperry Van Ness
Everett
WA
Carrie Spradling
Walker Alley and Associates
Shreveport
LA
Jacob Grieser
HC REIT
TOLEDO
OH
Dave Denton
DAR Development
Grand Rapids
MI
Rodney Gustafson
Case Commercial Real Estate, Inc.
Denver
CO
Thomas Miller
Miller Industrial Properties
Reno
NV
Lauren Nasser
Arthur Kowitz Realty
Daytona Beach
FL
Patty Burns
Fickling & Company
Macon
GA
Lois Williams
The Rosemyr Corporation
Henderson
NC
Bruce Pearson
John Hancock Financial
Boston
MA
Heather Trower
RED Legacy, LLC
Kansas City
MO
Mez Birdie
NAI Global
Orlando
FL
George Polydoros
Polydoros & Associates
Houston
TX
Jason Wilcox
Raven Commercial Real Estate
Kent
WA
Clarissa V. Willis
CBRE
Miami
FL
Michael Armanious
KW Commercial
Tacoma
WA
Aaron Goldmeier
Hampton Roads Management
Virginia Beach
VA
Laurens Nicholson
Lee & Associates
Greenville
SC
M.E. (Mike) Eurchuk
Realty Executives Meridian
Edmonton
Jeff Franklin
J.W. Franklin Co.
Warrensburg
MO
Bill Whitlatch
The Whitlatch Company
Visalia
CA
Gary J. Drechsel
Eagle Realty USA
Ledgewood
NJ
Michael Roy
Neil Walter Company
Kent
WA
Ed Kiesa
CBRE | Syracuse
Syracuse
NY
Scott Pollom
Cassidy Turley
Indianapolis
IN
Frank Thomasson
Cassidy Turley
Nashville
TN
Stephen Brown
CBRE Limited
Toronto
Ashley Chertkof
Sperry Van Ness/RealSite Commercial
Baltimore
MD
Todd Hamilton
Cutler Commercial
Phoenix
AZ
Douglas K. Smith
NAI Puget Sound Properties
Tacoma
WA
Group Tom Larson
RE/MAX Commercial Property Solutions La Porte
IN
John M. Stone
John M. Stone Company
Dallas
TX
Erik Schwetje
EWS Advisors
Winter Park
FL
Jerry Holdner
Voit Real Estate Services
Newport Beach
CA
Mark Klein
Klein & Heuchan
clearwater
FL
James T. Saint
Halo Realty & Investments Corporation
Las Vegas
NV
George Spirrison
Adelphia Properties
Oak Brook
IL
Don Gabriel
Ameribid
Overland Park
KS
Brett McDermott
Latitude Commercial Realty
Schererville
IN
Bobbi Miracle
Commercial Executives
Las Vegas
NV
Dan Smith
Millridge Real Estate LLC
Wake Forest
NC
Doug McKinnon
BankPlus
Jackson
MS
Rick McGraw
Coldwell Banker/Tomlinson Group
Boise
ID
Patrick Gallagher
Siegel-Gallagher
Milwaukee
WI
Dale DeBoer
DeBoer Commercial Real Estate
Modesto
CA
Arielle Dorman
Kidder Mathews
Bellevue
WA
Macy Ritter
NorthPoint Development
Kansas City
MO
Tony Fluhr
NTS Development Company
Louisville
KY
CCIM QUARTERLY MARKET TRENDS
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® AND CCIM INSTITUTE
33
Contributors Brian Collins
Post Office Realty
New Braunfels
Bob Droubi
Keller Williams
Houston
TX
Jim Tamblyn
Colliers Internatinoal Southwest Florida
Fort Myers
FL
Derrick Stricker
NAI Tri-Cities
Kennewick
WA
Jim Kirkpatrick
CBRE Capital Markets of Texas
Houston
TX
David Johnson
Mortgage Capital Investments, Inc.
Nashville
TN
Alon Hilton Price
Price-CO Realty Partners
Atlanta
GA
Tom Norton
FedEx Trade Networks
Memphis
TN
Jay Verro
NAI Platform
Albany
NY
Geoffrey Faulkner
NNNet Advisors
San Francisco
CA
Ben Fazendin
Grandbridge Real Estate Capital
Minneapolis
MN
William Lewis
The Lewis Group/CORFAC International Raleigh
NC
Tarit Chaudhuri
KW Commercial Txas Gulf
Houston
TX
Randall B. Boughton
NAI Latter & Blum
Baton Rouge
LA
Tom Shelly
Sunshine Commercial Brokerage, LLC
St. Peteersburg
FL
Tony Witt
Cassidy Turley
Dayton
OH
Jerry Hempenius
Com-Spec Properties, Inc.
San Luis Obispo
CA
Ricky Paradise
NorthPoint Development
Kansas City
MO
John Rees
Rees Commercial
Little Rock
AR
Andy Manthei
KW Commercial Midwest
Eagan
MN
Darby Craddock
CFO Real Estate Services LLC
Winter Haven
FL
Stasiu Geleszinski
Sperry Van Ness
Cincinnati
OH
Glen Rickett
SBC Realty Partners
Billings
MT
Vince Elder
Coldwell Banker Commercial United
Houston
TX
Bobby Pittenger
Pittenger Land
Charlotte
NC
Andrew Scearce
Chodrow Realty Advisors
Houston
TX
Zachary Harrell
Scott F. Harrell & Associates, Inc.
Springfield
MO
Danny Morales,
Hartman Income REIT
Houston
TX
Thomas
Brian Properties, Inc.
Arlington Heights
IL
Jeff Wilke
Graham & Company
Huntsville
AL
Darrell Okada
NAI Puget Sound Properties
Bellevue
WA
Tim Mills
CBRE
San Diego
CA
Anthony Clayton
Century 21 King
Rancho Cucamonga CA
Stephen Bean
HBCRE
Lexington
CCIM QUARTERLY MARKET TRENDS
TX
Thank you to the industry experts who contributed to CCIM Institute’s 4Q13 Quarterly Market Trends.
KY
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® AND CCIM INSTITUTE
34