04-02-2014
Forecasting future demand and supply of rare earth elements (REE) … with some focus on issues related to recycling
Per Kalvig
The raw materials supply chain
Mineral exploration
Processing raw materials
Mining
Transport
Manufacture of components
Recycling
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04-02-2014
Myth #1: ”Rare earth elements are soil”! No! They are metals (*): Critical REO = CREO
REE is a group of elements, with rather simillar chemical and physical characteristics.
Yttrium
La
Lanthan
Ce
Cerium
Pr
Praseodym
Nd(*)
Neodym
Pm
Promethium
Sm
Samarium
Eu(*)
Eurobium
Gd
Gadolinium
Tb (*)
Terbium
Dy(*)
Dysprosium
Ho
Holmium
Er
Erbium
Tm
Thulium
Yb
Yterbium
Lu
Lutetium
Heavy REE = HREE
Scandium
Y(*)
Light REE = LREE
Sc
Myth #2: ”Rare earth’s are rare”!
Kilde: Gordon Haxel, USGS.
No! – more common than gold and platinum!
REE are rare in the solar system! But in the crust of the Earth they are as commen as nickel, chromium, tin, tungsten, titanium and lead. Not common in the the rockforming minerals. Occurs in special geological environments.
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04-02-2014
Some REEminerals are more economic
More than 300 minerals are known to carry REE.
REE-composition varies from mineral to mineral. Different treatment required to extract the REE from the minerals.
Source: Industrial Minerals and Rocks, USGS, Modified by GEUS
REE-grade varies from mineral to mineral.
Max % REO
Mineralisation Chemical composition (approx.)
Type
Ancylite
SrREE(CO3)2(OH).H2O
Carbonate
46
Bastnaesite
(Ce,La,Y)(CO3)F
Carbonate
75
Hydroxylbastna. Parisite Yttrosynchisite Fluocerite Brannerite Cerianite Euxenite Fergusonite Loparite Pyrochlore Samarskite Apatite Florencite Monazite Xenotime Steenstrupine Allanite (orthite) Britholite Catapleite Cerite Eudialyte Gadolinite Kainosite Mosandrite Thalenite Zircon Lovozerite
REECO3(OH,F) CaREE2(CO3)3F2 (Ce,Y)FCO3 (La, Ce)F3 (U,Ca,Y,Ce)(Ti,Fe)2O6 (Ce,Th)O2 (Y,Ca,Ce,U,Th)(Nb,Ta,Ti)2O6 (Y,Er,U,Th)(Nb,Ta,Ti)O4 (Na,Ca,Y,Ce)(Nb,Ti)O3 (Na,Ca,Ce)2Nb2O6F (Y,Ce,Fe,U,Th,Ca)(Nb,Ta,Ti)O4 (Ca,Ce)5{(P,Si)O4}3 (F, Cl, OH) CeAl3(PO4)2(OH)6 (Ce,La,Pr,Nd,Th,Y)PO4 YPO4 Na14Ce6Mn2Fe2(Zr,Th)(Si6O18)2(PO4)7.3H2O (Ce,Ca,Y)2(Al,Fe)3(SiO4)3OH (Ce, Ca)5(SiO4, PO4)3(OH,F) Na2ZrSi3O9.2H2O (Ce,La,Ca)9(Mg,Fe)(SiO4)6(SiO3OH)(OH)3 Na15Ca6(Fe,Mn)3Zr3(Si,Nb)Si25O73(OH,Cl,H2O)5 (La,Nd,Y,Ce)2FeBe2Si2O10 Ca2(Y,REE)2Si4O12CO3.H2O (Ca,Na,REE)12(Ti,Zr)2Si7O31H6F4 Y3Si3O10(OH) (Zr,Th,Y,Ce)SiO4 H4Na2Ca(Zr,Ti)[Si6O18].
Carbonate Carbonate Carbonate Fluoride Oxide Oxide Oxide Oxide Oxide Oxide Oxide Phosphate Phosphate Phosphate Phosphate Phosphosilic. Silicate Silicate Silicate Silicate Silicate Silicate Silicate Silicate Silicate Silicate Silicate
75 64 50 70 6 81 30 46 34 6 22 12 32 71 62 31 28 62 65 10 52 38 33 63 4
REO production and development projects
Modified by GEUS from BGS, 2010
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04-02-2014
The REE grade and –ratio is a function of the mineral Longnan, Kina (%REO) Ion-adsorption clay
Mt. Weld, Australia Monazite (%REO)
Kvanefjeld, Greenland Steenstrupine (%REO)
Kringlerne, Greenland Eudialyte (%REO)
The most important industry sectors for REE
(22 vol%) Permanent magnets (22 vol%) Catalytical processes (20 vol%) Metallurgical sector incl. batteries (13 vol%)Tecnical ceramics ( 8 vol%) Polishing powders ( 8 vol%) Glass additives ( 4 vol%) Phosphors
( 3%) Other Weapons- and defense industries Water treatment Pigments Fertilizers Pharmaceutical Coating Laser Fiber optical sector
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04-02-2014
REO consumption related to various sectors (2008) X% expected annual growth
(NdFeB)-magnets Phosphorescence 22 vol% / 37 value% 4 vol% /31 value% %
10-16%
Metallurgical industry and batteries 20 vol% / 14 value%
15-20%
7-10%
Technical ceramics 13 vol%/ 7 value%
Catalyst market 22 vol%/ 5 value%
Polishing powders 8 vol% / 4 value%
Glass industries industrien 8 vol%/ 2 value%
~%
0-7%
6-8%
REO consumption (tREO) varies between regions (2011) Japan and rest of Asia (27.9 kt/y) 1.700 300 700
USA (7.0 kt/y)
5.300
500
250
3.000
100 200
450 500
500
Permanent magnets
4.600
Metallurgical sectors
8.500 3.800
Catalytical sectors
4.500
Polishing processes Glass additionals
Advanced ceramic materials
China (87 kt/y
Other (3.1 kt/y)
Phosphorescense and pigments 100
200
4.000 500
6.400
27.000
5.500
300
Other applications 400 500
7.750 6.350
400
700
11.500
18.500
Based on Roskill, 2012
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04-02-2014
Annual REO production (t) Country
Production 2012 (tons REO)
-
7,000
2,200
4,000
Brazil
250
300
China
105,000
95,000
2,800
2,800
Malaysia
280
350
Other
NA
NA
Total
111,000
110,000
USA Australia
India
From: USGS, 2013
Source: Roskill, 2013
Forecast 2013: ROW 24,000 t REO China 96,000 t REO Total 120,000 t REO
UralKali Sumitomo/ KAZatomProm Great Western Lynäs Molycorp Indian Rare Earth Ltd.
Production 2011 (tons REO)
Annual REO production (t)
Source: Roskill, 2013
Source: Roskill, 2012
ROW 24,000 t REO China 96,000 t REO Total 120,000 t REO
UralKali Sumitomo/ KAZatomProm Great Western Lynäs Molycorp Indian Rare Earth Ltd.
Forecast 2013:
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04-02-2014
China: REO production- and quota 2007-2011
Ion-adsorbed clay Monazite Ion-adsorbed clay Ion-adsorbed clay Baestnaesite Ion-adsorbed clay Baestnaesite Monazite Ion-adsorbed clay
China – export quota
60.200
47.500
50.200
30.300
30.300
Myth #3: ”China has monopolized the REE value chain!” Partly correct! But many efforts to break the monopoly
REE resource c. 30% in China
?
REE ressource ROW New producers
?
RE mining and processessing
80% in China
From ore to til REoxides/carbonates
86% in China
Refinary of oxides to metals
c. 100% in China
Production of alloys 75-80% in China for magnets based 20-25% in Japan on RE-metals Manufacture of NdFeB magnet
75-80% in China 17-25% in Japan 3- 5% in Europe
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04-02-2014
Myth #3: ”China has monopolized the value chain of the REE!” Partly correct! But huge REE resources excists outside China REE resource c. 30% in China
?
REE ressource ROW New producers
?
RE mining and processessing
80% in China Chinese production quota
From ore to til REoxides/carbonates
86% in China
Refinary of oxides to metals
c. 100% in China
Production of alloys 75-80% in China for magnets based 20-25% in Japan Chinese export quota on RE-metals Manufacture of NdFeB magnet
75-80% in China 17-25% in Japan 3- 5% in Europe
China’s rare earth’s export markets (2011)
Europe: c. 18% (equivalent to c. 5,500 t REO/y (2011)
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04-02-2014
Total share of RE-compounds imported by the EU-27
Europe: c. 5,500 t REO/y (2011) + REO from ROW
Total share of RE-compounds imported by the EU-27
Europe: c. 5,500 t REO/y (2011) + REO from ROW
…. in addition to imported REE-containing components
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04-02-2014
Selected industrial REE activities in Europe (2011)
Country
Selected companies
Products
France
- Rhodia
Automotive catalysts, phosphors
Austria
- Treibacher Industries AG
Catalysts, glass polishign powder, glass fusion, pigments and ceramic glazed, pharmaceutical products
Netherlands
- Walker Europe - Goudsmit Magnetic Systems
Magnet production Magnet production
UK
- Magnet Applications Magnet production - Arnold Magnetic Technologies Magnet production - Less Common Metals Ltd. Alloys
Germany
- Vacuumschmeltze
Magnet production
Estonia
- Silmet Rare Metals
REE separation; RE-metal production
Forecast: Rare earth market demand (2012 - 2018) Nd, Pr Dy, Gd, Tb Ce Dy, La La, Ce
Y, Ce, La Nd, Pr
Ce, La Pr, Nd
Y, Ce La, Eu, Tb
Ce, La Nd, Pr
La, Ce, Nd Pr, Sm
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04-02-2014
REO and –metal prices 2011 (99% purity) REE
Metal
Oxide
Price (US$/kg
Price (US$/kg)
Europium
6,600
5,860
Terbium
5,100
4,500
Dysprosium
3,400
2,580
Neodymium
470
335
Praseodymium
280
247
Gadolinium
225
200
Yttrium
210
185
Samarium
190
130
Cerium
165
180
Lanthanum
165
150
Prices FOB China.
Source: Metal-pages, 2011
Forecast on REE prices 2012-2018
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04-02-2014
Myth #4: ”The World is running short of REE!” No! The excisting reserves are sufficient for 800 years Country
Production 2011 (tons REO) Source: USGS, 2013
USA
Production 2012 (tons REO) Source: USGS, 2013
Reserves (tons REO)
Source: USGS, 2013
Reserver (tons REO) Source: Chinese Society of Rare Earth, 2010
-
7,000
13,000,000
11,800,000
2,200
4,000
1,600,000
13,400,000
Brazil
250
300
36,000
52,600,000
China
105,000
95,000
55,000,000
36,000,000
2,800
2,800
3,100,000
3,100,000
Malaysia
280
350
30,000
Other
NA
NA
41,000,000
52,000,000
Total
111,000
110,000
110,000,000
168,900,000
Australia
India
+ resourcer related to about 700 known occurrences which are not yet messured.
Supply and demand forecast (t REO +/- 20%) in 2016 Demand
Supply 257 kt
Supply - min
163 kt
Demand – max 210 kt Demand - min
190 kt
Supply ballance: +67 kt to -53 kt
A supply deficit of 50 kt/y leaves room for about 5 new mines. Who is likely to supply the ballance?
Source: Deutsche Bank, 2013
Producers
Estim. REO (kt) 2016
Source: K.R. Long, USGS, 2011
2016 Supply – max
Estim. REO (kt) 2018
Mountain Pass
19.0
19.0
Mt. Weld
22.0
22.0
Kina
93.8
93.8
Indien
2.8
2.8
Malaysia
0.4
0.4
Brasilien
0.0
0.0
Rycycling
5.0
5.0
143.0
143.0
Total
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04-02-2014
Forecasted supply in 2014 (estimated in 2010) Company
Kingsnorth (t REO)
China
Lynas (tREO)
80-100,000
60,000
Bayan Obo
20-40,000
20,000
Ion adsorption clays
40-50,000
30,000
8-12,000
-
-
4,000
160-170,000
114,000
Mountain Pass
20,000
20,000
Mt. Weld
21,000
22,000
India & Russia
-
12,000
Recycling outside China
0
1,800
42,000
64,800
Monazite Recycling in China China total
ROW total
Supply forecast for 2014 (estimated in 2010) Element
Kingsnorth (supply) (t REO)
Lynas (supply) (tREO)
Kingsnorth Lynas (balance) (balance) (tREO) (tREO)
Cerium
80-85,000
66,500
Up to 25,000
+7,500
Lanthanum
52-57,000
43,400 -3,000 to +7,000
-13,700
31,200
-1,900
-14,200
9,500 -5,000 to +3,000
-1,200
10,000
9,100
+2,100
-7,000
Samarium
4,000
3,500
+2,600
+2,300
Gadolinium
3,000
2,300
+700
+900
Dysprosium
1,800-2,000
1,700
-500 to +100
-1,100
1,000
n.d.
+60
n.d.
850
450
+10
-110
1,300
n.d.
400-500
330
190-210,000
167,980
Neodymium Yttrium Praseodymium
Erbium Europium Ho-Tm-Yb-Lu Terbium Total
33,000 9-13,000
n.d. -100 to +100
-290 Based on Öko-Institut 2011
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04-02-2014
Recycling of REE - part of a sustainable strategy
(22 vol%) Permanent magnets (22 vol%) Catalytical processes (20 vol%) Metallurgical sector incl. batteries (13 vol%)Tecnical ceramics (8 vol%) Polishing powders (8 vol%) Glass additives (4 vol%) Phosphorescense
Total recovery depends on a number of factors: e.g.: Collection f.x.: 30% Dismantling & pre-processing f.x 60% Smelting & refining: 95% f.x. Total: 17% Recovery will vary from element to element
Recycling – likely to recover only some of the REE X% expected annual growth
(NdFeB)-magnets Phosphorescence 22 vol% / 37 value% 4 vol% /31 value% %
10-16%
Catalyst market 22 vol%/ 5 value%
0-7%
Metallurgical industry and batteries 20 vol% / 14 value%
15-20%
7-10%
Technical ceramics 13 vol%/ 7 value%
Glass industries industrien 8 vol%/ 2 value%
~%
Polishing powders 8 vol% / 4 value%
6-8%
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04-02-2014
Rare earth magnet demand by key growth market (2012-2018)
Rare earth magnet demand by key growth market (2012-2018)
Scrap source
Service life
Hard disk drives
5-10 years
Loud speakers
5-10 years
Mixed electronics
5-10 years
Motors and generators in hybrid & electric vehicles
15 years
Generators in wind turbines
20 years
MRI scanners
15 years
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04-02-2014
Recycling – How is it impacting new mining projects? Distribution of value in Kvanefjeld Project (Source: GME, 2013)
Proportion of Value Contribution 1% 1% 0%
0%
1%
2% 3%
7%
U
La
Ce
Pr
Nd
Sm
Eu
Gd
Tb
Dy
Ho
Er
Tm
Yb
Lu
Y
4% 8%
13%
4% 1%
18% 4%
0%
32%
Zn
31
Thank you!
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