04-02-2014

Forecasting future demand and supply of rare earth elements (REE) … with some focus on issues related to recycling

Per Kalvig

The raw materials supply chain

Mineral exploration

Processing raw materials

Mining

Transport

Manufacture of components

Recycling

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04-02-2014

Myth #1: ”Rare earth elements are soil”! No! They are metals (*): Critical REO = CREO

REE is a group of elements, with rather simillar chemical and physical characteristics.

Yttrium

La

Lanthan

Ce

Cerium

Pr

Praseodym

Nd(*)

Neodym

Pm

Promethium

Sm

Samarium

Eu(*)

Eurobium

Gd

Gadolinium

Tb (*)

Terbium

Dy(*)

Dysprosium

Ho

Holmium

Er

Erbium

Tm

Thulium

Yb

Yterbium

Lu

Lutetium

Heavy REE = HREE

Scandium

Y(*)

Light REE = LREE

Sc

Myth #2: ”Rare earth’s are rare”!

Kilde: Gordon Haxel, USGS.

No! – more common than gold and platinum!

REE are rare in the solar system! But in the crust of the Earth they are as commen as nickel, chromium, tin, tungsten, titanium and lead. Not common in the the rockforming minerals. Occurs in special geological environments.

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04-02-2014

Some REEminerals are more economic

More than 300 minerals are known to carry REE.

REE-composition varies from mineral to mineral. Different treatment required to extract the REE from the minerals.

Source: Industrial Minerals and Rocks, USGS, Modified by GEUS

REE-grade varies from mineral to mineral.

Max % REO

Mineralisation Chemical composition (approx.)

Type

Ancylite

SrREE(CO3)2(OH).H2O

Carbonate

46

Bastnaesite

(Ce,La,Y)(CO3)F

Carbonate

75

Hydroxylbastna. Parisite Yttrosynchisite Fluocerite Brannerite Cerianite Euxenite Fergusonite Loparite Pyrochlore Samarskite Apatite Florencite Monazite Xenotime Steenstrupine Allanite (orthite) Britholite Catapleite Cerite Eudialyte Gadolinite Kainosite Mosandrite Thalenite Zircon Lovozerite

REECO3(OH,F) CaREE2(CO3)3F2 (Ce,Y)FCO3 (La, Ce)F3 (U,Ca,Y,Ce)(Ti,Fe)2O6 (Ce,Th)O2 (Y,Ca,Ce,U,Th)(Nb,Ta,Ti)2O6 (Y,Er,U,Th)(Nb,Ta,Ti)O4 (Na,Ca,Y,Ce)(Nb,Ti)O3 (Na,Ca,Ce)2Nb2O6F (Y,Ce,Fe,U,Th,Ca)(Nb,Ta,Ti)O4 (Ca,Ce)5{(P,Si)O4}3 (F, Cl, OH) CeAl3(PO4)2(OH)6 (Ce,La,Pr,Nd,Th,Y)PO4 YPO4 Na14Ce6Mn2Fe2(Zr,Th)(Si6O18)2(PO4)7.3H2O (Ce,Ca,Y)2(Al,Fe)3(SiO4)3OH (Ce, Ca)5(SiO4, PO4)3(OH,F) Na2ZrSi3O9.2H2O (Ce,La,Ca)9(Mg,Fe)(SiO4)6(SiO3OH)(OH)3 Na15Ca6(Fe,Mn)3Zr3(Si,Nb)Si25O73(OH,Cl,H2O)5 (La,Nd,Y,Ce)2FeBe2Si2O10 Ca2(Y,REE)2Si4O12CO3.H2O (Ca,Na,REE)12(Ti,Zr)2Si7O31H6F4 Y3Si3O10(OH) (Zr,Th,Y,Ce)SiO4 H4Na2Ca(Zr,Ti)[Si6O18].

Carbonate Carbonate Carbonate Fluoride Oxide Oxide Oxide Oxide Oxide Oxide Oxide Phosphate Phosphate Phosphate Phosphate Phosphosilic. Silicate Silicate Silicate Silicate Silicate Silicate Silicate Silicate Silicate Silicate Silicate

75 64 50 70 6 81 30 46 34 6 22 12 32 71 62 31 28 62 65 10 52 38 33 63 4

REO production and development projects

Modified by GEUS from BGS, 2010

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04-02-2014

The REE grade and –ratio is a function of the mineral Longnan, Kina (%REO) Ion-adsorption clay

Mt. Weld, Australia Monazite (%REO)

Kvanefjeld, Greenland Steenstrupine (%REO)

Kringlerne, Greenland Eudialyte (%REO)

The most important industry sectors for REE

(22 vol%) Permanent magnets (22 vol%) Catalytical processes (20 vol%) Metallurgical sector incl. batteries (13 vol%)Tecnical ceramics ( 8 vol%) Polishing powders ( 8 vol%) Glass additives ( 4 vol%) Phosphors

( 3%) Other Weapons- and defense industries Water treatment Pigments Fertilizers Pharmaceutical Coating Laser Fiber optical sector

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04-02-2014

REO consumption related to various sectors (2008) X% expected annual growth

(NdFeB)-magnets Phosphorescence 22 vol% / 37 value% 4 vol% /31 value% %

10-16%

Metallurgical industry and batteries 20 vol% / 14 value%

15-20%

7-10%

Technical ceramics 13 vol%/ 7 value%

Catalyst market 22 vol%/ 5 value%

Polishing powders 8 vol% / 4 value%

Glass industries industrien 8 vol%/ 2 value%

~%

0-7%

6-8%

REO consumption (tREO) varies between regions (2011) Japan and rest of Asia (27.9 kt/y) 1.700 300 700

USA (7.0 kt/y)

5.300

500

250

3.000

100 200

450 500

500

Permanent magnets

4.600

Metallurgical sectors

8.500 3.800

Catalytical sectors

4.500

Polishing processes Glass additionals

Advanced ceramic materials

China (87 kt/y

Other (3.1 kt/y)

Phosphorescense and pigments 100

200

4.000 500

6.400

27.000

5.500

300

Other applications 400 500

7.750 6.350

400

700

11.500

18.500

Based on Roskill, 2012

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04-02-2014

Annual REO production (t) Country

Production 2012 (tons REO)

-

7,000

2,200

4,000

Brazil

250

300

China

105,000

95,000

2,800

2,800

Malaysia

280

350

Other

NA

NA

Total

111,000

110,000

USA Australia

India

From: USGS, 2013

Source: Roskill, 2013

Forecast 2013: ROW 24,000 t REO China 96,000 t REO Total 120,000 t REO

UralKali Sumitomo/ KAZatomProm Great Western Lynäs Molycorp Indian Rare Earth Ltd.

Production 2011 (tons REO)

Annual REO production (t)

Source: Roskill, 2013

Source: Roskill, 2012

ROW 24,000 t REO China 96,000 t REO Total 120,000 t REO

UralKali Sumitomo/ KAZatomProm Great Western Lynäs Molycorp Indian Rare Earth Ltd.

Forecast 2013:

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04-02-2014

China: REO production- and quota 2007-2011

Ion-adsorbed clay Monazite Ion-adsorbed clay Ion-adsorbed clay Baestnaesite Ion-adsorbed clay Baestnaesite Monazite Ion-adsorbed clay

China – export quota

60.200

47.500

50.200

30.300

30.300

Myth #3: ”China has monopolized the REE value chain!” Partly correct! But many efforts to break the monopoly

REE resource c. 30% in China

?

REE ressource ROW New producers

?

RE mining and processessing

80% in China

From ore to til REoxides/carbonates

86% in China

Refinary of oxides to metals

c. 100% in China

Production of alloys 75-80% in China for magnets based 20-25% in Japan on RE-metals Manufacture of NdFeB magnet

75-80% in China 17-25% in Japan 3- 5% in Europe

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04-02-2014

Myth #3: ”China has monopolized the value chain of the REE!” Partly correct! But huge REE resources excists outside China REE resource c. 30% in China

?

REE ressource ROW New producers

?

RE mining and processessing

80% in China Chinese production quota

From ore to til REoxides/carbonates

86% in China

Refinary of oxides to metals

c. 100% in China

Production of alloys 75-80% in China for magnets based 20-25% in Japan Chinese export quota on RE-metals Manufacture of NdFeB magnet

75-80% in China 17-25% in Japan 3- 5% in Europe

China’s rare earth’s export markets (2011)

Europe: c. 18% (equivalent to c. 5,500 t REO/y (2011)

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04-02-2014

Total share of RE-compounds imported by the EU-27

Europe: c. 5,500 t REO/y (2011) + REO from ROW

Total share of RE-compounds imported by the EU-27

Europe: c. 5,500 t REO/y (2011) + REO from ROW

…. in addition to imported REE-containing components

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04-02-2014

Selected industrial REE activities in Europe (2011)

Country

Selected companies

Products

France

- Rhodia

Automotive catalysts, phosphors

Austria

- Treibacher Industries AG

Catalysts, glass polishign powder, glass fusion, pigments and ceramic glazed, pharmaceutical products

Netherlands

- Walker Europe - Goudsmit Magnetic Systems

Magnet production Magnet production

UK

- Magnet Applications Magnet production - Arnold Magnetic Technologies Magnet production - Less Common Metals Ltd. Alloys

Germany

- Vacuumschmeltze

Magnet production

Estonia

- Silmet Rare Metals

REE separation; RE-metal production

Forecast: Rare earth market demand (2012 - 2018) Nd, Pr Dy, Gd, Tb Ce Dy, La La, Ce

Y, Ce, La Nd, Pr

Ce, La Pr, Nd

Y, Ce La, Eu, Tb

Ce, La Nd, Pr

La, Ce, Nd Pr, Sm

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04-02-2014

REO and –metal prices 2011 (99% purity) REE

Metal

Oxide

Price (US$/kg

Price (US$/kg)

Europium

6,600

5,860

Terbium

5,100

4,500

Dysprosium

3,400

2,580

Neodymium

470

335

Praseodymium

280

247

Gadolinium

225

200

Yttrium

210

185

Samarium

190

130

Cerium

165

180

Lanthanum

165

150

Prices FOB China.

Source: Metal-pages, 2011

Forecast on REE prices 2012-2018

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04-02-2014

Myth #4: ”The World is running short of REE!” No! The excisting reserves are sufficient for 800 years Country

Production 2011 (tons REO) Source: USGS, 2013

USA

Production 2012 (tons REO) Source: USGS, 2013

Reserves (tons REO)

Source: USGS, 2013

Reserver (tons REO) Source: Chinese Society of Rare Earth, 2010

-

7,000

13,000,000

11,800,000

2,200

4,000

1,600,000

13,400,000

Brazil

250

300

36,000

52,600,000

China

105,000

95,000

55,000,000

36,000,000

2,800

2,800

3,100,000

3,100,000

Malaysia

280

350

30,000

Other

NA

NA

41,000,000

52,000,000

Total

111,000

110,000

110,000,000

168,900,000

Australia

India

+ resourcer related to about 700 known occurrences which are not yet messured.

Supply and demand forecast (t REO +/- 20%) in 2016 Demand

Supply 257 kt

Supply - min

163 kt

Demand – max 210 kt Demand - min

190 kt

Supply ballance: +67 kt to -53 kt

A supply deficit of 50 kt/y leaves room for about 5 new mines. Who is likely to supply the ballance?

Source: Deutsche Bank, 2013

Producers

Estim. REO (kt) 2016

Source: K.R. Long, USGS, 2011

2016 Supply – max

Estim. REO (kt) 2018

Mountain Pass

19.0

19.0

Mt. Weld

22.0

22.0

Kina

93.8

93.8

Indien

2.8

2.8

Malaysia

0.4

0.4

Brasilien

0.0

0.0

Rycycling

5.0

5.0

143.0

143.0

Total

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04-02-2014

Forecasted supply in 2014 (estimated in 2010) Company

Kingsnorth (t REO)

China

Lynas (tREO)

80-100,000

60,000

Bayan Obo

20-40,000

20,000

Ion adsorption clays

40-50,000

30,000

8-12,000

-

-

4,000

160-170,000

114,000

Mountain Pass

20,000

20,000

Mt. Weld

21,000

22,000

India & Russia

-

12,000

Recycling outside China

0

1,800

42,000

64,800

Monazite Recycling in China China total

ROW total

Supply forecast for 2014 (estimated in 2010) Element

Kingsnorth (supply) (t REO)

Lynas (supply) (tREO)

Kingsnorth Lynas (balance) (balance) (tREO) (tREO)

Cerium

80-85,000

66,500

Up to 25,000

+7,500

Lanthanum

52-57,000

43,400 -3,000 to +7,000

-13,700

31,200

-1,900

-14,200

9,500 -5,000 to +3,000

-1,200

10,000

9,100

+2,100

-7,000

Samarium

4,000

3,500

+2,600

+2,300

Gadolinium

3,000

2,300

+700

+900

Dysprosium

1,800-2,000

1,700

-500 to +100

-1,100

1,000

n.d.

+60

n.d.

850

450

+10

-110

1,300

n.d.

400-500

330

190-210,000

167,980

Neodymium Yttrium Praseodymium

Erbium Europium Ho-Tm-Yb-Lu Terbium Total

33,000 9-13,000

n.d. -100 to +100

-290 Based on Öko-Institut 2011

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04-02-2014

Recycling of REE - part of a sustainable strategy

(22 vol%) Permanent magnets (22 vol%) Catalytical processes (20 vol%) Metallurgical sector incl. batteries (13 vol%)Tecnical ceramics (8 vol%) Polishing powders (8 vol%) Glass additives (4 vol%) Phosphorescense

Total recovery depends on a number of factors: e.g.: Collection f.x.: 30% Dismantling & pre-processing f.x 60% Smelting & refining: 95% f.x. Total: 17% Recovery will vary from element to element

Recycling – likely to recover only some of the REE X% expected annual growth

(NdFeB)-magnets Phosphorescence 22 vol% / 37 value% 4 vol% /31 value% %

10-16%

Catalyst market 22 vol%/ 5 value%

0-7%

Metallurgical industry and batteries 20 vol% / 14 value%

15-20%

7-10%

Technical ceramics 13 vol%/ 7 value%

Glass industries industrien 8 vol%/ 2 value%

~%

Polishing powders 8 vol% / 4 value%

6-8%

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04-02-2014

Rare earth magnet demand by key growth market (2012-2018)

Rare earth magnet demand by key growth market (2012-2018)

Scrap source

Service life

Hard disk drives

5-10 years

Loud speakers

5-10 years

Mixed electronics

5-10 years

Motors and generators in hybrid & electric vehicles

15 years

Generators in wind turbines

20 years

MRI scanners

15 years

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04-02-2014

Recycling – How is it impacting new mining projects? Distribution of value in Kvanefjeld Project (Source: GME, 2013)

Proportion of Value Contribution 1% 1% 0%

0%

1%

2% 3%

7%

U

La

Ce

Pr

Nd

Sm

Eu

Gd

Tb

Dy

Ho

Er

Tm

Yb

Lu

Y

4% 8%

13%

4% 1%

18% 4%

0%

32%

Zn

31

Thank you!

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