Equipment failure forecast in a semiconductor production line
GENUA Caterina Maria, PAPPALARDO Maria Vittoria STMicroelectronics
0
Purpose Improve the data model of the mathematical simulator used in STMicroelectronics fabs, predicting equipment failures (unscheduled down or preventative maintenance), through the application of non-parametric inferential statistics techniques on historical equipment data. Obtainable benefits: Equipment failure prediction can improve STAP simulator data model accuracy, thus providing better indications to the shop floor for dispatching, and giving more reliable commitment to customers. 1
Catania STMicroelectronics production lines
M5
Catania site aerial view
2
Catania STMicroelectronics shop floor
Diffusion Furnace
Grey area equipment Diffusion area
25-wafers lot
Photolithography area
Clean room operator
Etching area
Production software tools COBOL extracts
Workstream DB
STAP toolbox
Production data extracts
STAP engine
Simulator input
Fab Performance Viewer framework
Simulator output
STAP toolbox
APF reporting system
FPV repository
Reports 4
Production software tools used in this project Production control Group uses Shop Floor Scheduling tools for data analysis and for production process dispatching indications. Among those tools, the following have been used in this project: STAP (ST Autosched Accelerated Processing) : mathematical simulator produced by Amat, which, through fab data model, reproduces the whole production process and generates reports, such as production targets. FPV (Fab Performance Viewer): framework for graphical and statistical analysis of production data related to process flows, shop floor equipment, operators. 5
Reliability theory (1/2) Availability: proportion of time a system is in a functioning condition Availability indicators MTBF – Mean Time Between Fail MTTF – Mean Time To Fail MTTR – Mean Time To Repair
up
down MTTR
MTTF MTBF
Reliability theory (2/2) Probability distributions mainly used in reliability theory Exponential distribution, if the system has a constant failure rate, i.e. the rate does not vary over the life cycle of the system with aging Weibull distribution, if the failure rate of the system grows as the system grows older, due to aging and use, so the older the system is, the more it tends to fail
7
STAP data model Product file
Route files Generic resources file
Order files
Calendar files STAP simulator engine
Stations file
Reports
STAP calendar files (1/3) Equipment down (unscheduled failure) calendar Association of down calendar file to single station Equipment PM (Preventative Maintenance) calendar Association of PM calendar file to single station
9
STAP calendar files
(2/3)
up
down MTTF
MTTR
Equipment down (unscheduled failure) calendar DOWNCALNAME
DOWNCALTYPE
MTTFDIST
MTTF
DN_LAM4520
mttf_by_cal
exponential
144.86
MTTF2
MTTF3
MTTFUNITS
MTTRDIST
MTTR
hr
exponential
15.5
MTTR2
MTTR3
hrs
Association of down calendar file to single station RESTYPE
RESNAME
CALTYPE
CALNAME
FOADIST
FOA
FOA2
stn
LAM4520O207
down
DN_LAM4520
weibull
0.571429
10.26469
FOA3
MTTRUNITS
FOAUNITS hr
10
STAP calendar files (3/3)
up
down MTTR MTBPM
Equipment PM (Preventative Maintenance) calendar PMCALNAME
PMCALTYPE
MTBPMDIST
MTBPM
PM_LAM4520O207
mtbpm_by_cal
exponential
27.06
MTBPM2
MTBPMUNITS
MTTRDIST
MTTR
MTTR2
MTTRUNITS
hr
weibull
0.425532
1.009563
hr
Association of PM calendar file to single station RESTYPE
RESNAME
CALTYPE
CALNAME
FOADIST
FOA
FOA2
stn
LAM4520O207
pm
PM_LAM4520O207
weibull
0.571429
10.26469
FOA3
FOAUNITS hr
11
Exponential distribution (1/2) Probability density function: ⎧ 1 − x β se x ≥ 0 ⎪ e f ( x) = ⎨ β altrimenti ⎪⎩ 0
Cumulative distribution function: ⎧⎪1 − e − x β se x ≥ 0 F ( x) = ⎨ altrimenti ⎪⎩ 0
Mean:
μ=β Variance:
σ2 = β2
12
Exponential distribution (2/2) Properties: Skewed distribution Used for events with high variability (e.g. equipment MTTF)
STAP exponential distribution data model MTTFDIST Æ exponential MTTF Æ 10 MTTFUNIT Æ hr 13
Weibull distribution (1/2) Probability density function: ⎧ −α α −1 − ⎛⎜⎝ x β ⎞⎟⎠ se x ≥ 0 ⎪ f ( x ) = ⎨αβ x e altrimenti ⎪⎩ 0 α
Cumulative distribution function: ⎛ x ⎞α ⎧ ⎪1 − e −⎜⎝ β ⎟⎠ se x ≥ 0 F ( x) = ⎨ altrimenti ⎪⎩ 0
Mean:
μ=
β ⎛1⎞ Γ⎜ ⎟ α ⎝α ⎠
Variance: β2 σ = α 2
⎧⎪ ⎛ 2 ⎞ 1 ⎨2Γ⎜ ⎟ − ⎪⎩ ⎝ α ⎠ α
⎡ ⎛ 1 ⎞⎤ ⎢Γ ⎜ α ⎟ ⎥ ⎣ ⎝ ⎠⎦
∞
2
⎫⎪ ⎬ ⎪⎭
where: Γ( z ) = t z −1e −t dt (gamma function)
∫ 0
14
Weibull distribution (2/2) Properties: Distribution family including exponential Widely used in reliability theory to analyze system life cycle Unimodal and skewed when α=1, it’s an exponential with mean β when α 0 ⎪ f ( x) = ⎨ Γ(α ) ⎪⎩
altrimenti
0
Cumulative distribution function: α −1 ⎧ ( βx ) j se x > 0 − βx ⎪ 1− e F ( x) = ⎨ ⎪ ⎩
∑ j =1
0
j!
altrimenti
Mean:
μ=
α β
Variance: σ2 =
α β2 ∞
where: Γ( z ) = t z −1e −t dt (gamma function)
∫ 0
16
Gamma distribution (2/2) Properties: Distribution family including exponential Unimodal, can be skewed or almost symmetric when α=1, it’s an exponential with mean 1/β when α>10, can be approximated by a normal with mean μ and variance σ2
Gamma distribution STAP data model MTTFDIST Æ gamma MTTF Æ 1 MTTF2 Æ 17 MTTFUNIT Æ hr 17
STAP data model improvement golden tools selection PM and down calendar files update, applying inferential statistics to historical data of golden tools what-if analysis: compare two simulation runs sim_before: calendar files updated with deterministic approach sim_after: calendar files updated with probabilistic approach
Simulation results comparison Benefits 18
Calendar files update Deterministic approach Calendar manual update Periodical (e.g. every three months) Exponential distribution MTTF, MTBPM, MTTR values extracted from production reports and communicated by production people to production control people in charge of updating STAP data model
19
Deterministic approach sim_before (1/2) Equipment down calendar
DOWNCALNAME
DOWNCALTYPE
MTTFDIST
MTTF
MTTFUNITS
MTTRDIST
MTTR
MTTRUNITS
DN_LAM4520
mttf_by_cal
exponential
144.86
hrs
exponential
15.5
hrs
Association of down calendar file to single station
RESTYPE
RESNAME
CALTYPE
CALNAME
FOA
FOAUNITS
stn
LAM4520O207
down
DN_LAM4520
122676
sec
stn
LAM4520O303
down
DN_LAM4520
57458.9
sec
stn
LAM4520O208
down
DN_LAM4520
418386
sec
stn
LAM4520O213
down
DN_LAM4520
284171
sec
stn
LAM4520O209
down
DN_LAM4520
499481
sec
stn
LAM4520O210
down
DN_LAM4520
27500.5
sec
stn
LAM4520O306
down
DN_LAM4520
481997
sec
stn
ALLIAN112
down
DN_LAM4520
245064
sec
NOTE: The same calendar is associated to more than one station.
20
Deterministic approach sim_before (2/2) Equipment PM calendar
PMCALNAME
PMCALTYPE
MTBPMDIST
PM_LAM4520
mtbpm_by_cal
exponential
MTBPM 300
MTBPMUNITS
MTTRDIST
MTTR
hrs
exponential
11.7
Association of PM calendar file to single station
RESTYPE
RESNAME
CALTYPE
CALNAME
FOA
stn
LAM4520O207
pm
PM_LAM4520
254057
sec
stn
LAM4520O303
pm
PM_LAM4520
118995
sec
stn
LAM4520O208
pm
PM_LAM4520
866463
sec
stn
LAM4520O213
pm
PM_LAM4520
588507
sec
stn
LAM4520O209
pm
PM_LAM4520
1.03E+06
sec
stn
LAM4520O210
pm
PM_LAM4520
56952.7
sec
stn
LAM4520O306
pm
PM_LAM4520
998199
sec
stn
ALLIAN112
pm
PM_LAM4520
507520
sec
NOTE: The same calendar is associated to more than one station.
FOAUNITS
MTTRUNITS hrs
Calendar files update Probabilistic approach Calendar update based on inferential statistics techniques on equipment data found in hystorical repository Extraction of golden tools data related to failures and preventative maintenance, from Fab Performance Viewer, FPV framework archive Application of Kolmogorov- Smirnov test to golden tools data, to determine probability distribution related and associated parameters Update STAP calendars with the calculated parameters
22
Probabilistic approach Data extraction from FPV archive EQP_ID
EQP_NAME
EQP_ID
OLD_STATE
NEW_STATE
TRANSACTION_INSTANT
STATUS
1070
ALLIAN112
482
DOWN
UP
27-Nov-2010 03:26:45 PM
STAND-BY
482
LAM4520O207
482
UP
DOWN
27-Nov-2010 01:54:49 PM
UNSCHEDULED
715
LAM4520O208
485
UP
DOWN
28-Nov-2010 06:25:50 PM
SCHEDULED
1069
LAM4520O209
485
DOWN
UP
27-Nov-2010 04:47:22 PM
STAND-BY
624
LAM4520O210
485
UP
DOWN
27-Nov-2010 12:46:16 PM
UNSCHEDULED
1068
LAM4520O213
485
DOWN
UP
27-Nov-2010 09:43:47 AM
STAND-BY
892
LAM4520O303
895
LAM4520O306
Stations table
up_down_transaction table EQP_ID
DAY
MTBF
MTTR
DOWN_PERCENT
482
25-Nov-2010 12:00:12 AM
33.2769
1.5875
.0477
UNSCHEDULED
876
25-Nov-2010 12:12:51 AM
11.5636
3.1258
.2703
SCHEDULED
626
25-Nov-2010 12:35:28 AM
18.7222
4.3786
.2339
SCHEDULED
728
25-Nov-2010 12:44:10 AM
7.1517
.1236
.0173
UNSCHEDULED
1030
25-Nov-2010 12:48:53 AM
83.9725
2.0039
.0239
UNSCHEDULED
987
25-Nov-2010 12:59:56 AM
16.5936
.465
.028
UNSCHEDULED
820
25-Nov-2010 01:09:35 AM
48.0644
1.2867
.0268
SCHEDULED
1140
25-Nov-2010 01:23:17 AM
54.0175
1.4156
.0262
SCHEDULED
down_data table
STATUS
Probabilistic approach Kolmogorov-Smirnov test (1/4) “goodness-of-fit” test, proposed by Kolmogorov in 1933 and developed by Smirnov compare a sample with a reference probability distribution The Kolmogorov–Smirnov statistic quantifies the distance between the empirical distribution function of the sample and the cumulative distribution function of the reference distribution The computed distance will be compared to a threshold value to verify the null hypothesis that the samples are drawn from the reference distribution. 24
Probabilistic approach Kolmogorov-Smirnov test (2/4) X1,...,XN – N Independent and identically-distributed random variables Empirical distribution function SN for N iid observations Xi is defined as SN (X i ) =
1 Fi N
Where Fi is the number of observations ≤ Xi
F0(.) - completely specified cumulative distribution function F0(Xi) – expresses the expected value of samples observed ) = QKS
([
])
N + 0.12 + 0.11 / N D
Where QKS is defined as: ∞
Q KS (λ ) = 2∑ (− 1)
j −1
e
− 2 j 2 λ2
j =1
is a monotonic function with: QKS(0)=1
QKS(∞)=0
27
Probabilistic approach Application of K-S test to data extracted from FPV (1/4) MTTR results for golden tools failures Test significance
Distribution type
Distribution parameters
Station
# data
Avg
Standard deviation
D gamma
D exponential
D Weibull
threshold
Gamma
Exponentia l
Weibull
Gamma
Exponentia l
Weibull
α
β
LAM4520O207
78
3.49
8.88
0.987179
0.433173
0.20363
0.153763
0
0
0.002552
no
no
no
0.454545
1.439969
LAM4520O303
108
6.32
34.78
0.990741
0.529611
0.401984
0.130674
0
0
0
no
no
no
0.298507
0.667273
LAM4520O208
102
5.46
9.94
0.990196
0.317283
0.167916
0.134462
0
0
0.005468
no
no
no
0.588235
3.535006
LAM4520O213
123
5.55
33.07
0.99187
0.548473
0.351509
0.122447
0
0
0
no
no
no
0.285714
0.476918
LAM4520O209
116
2.91
14.12
0.991379
0.507595
0.435371
0.126087
0
0
0
no
no
no
0.31746
0.40053
LAM4520O210
135
3.57
9.16
0.992593
0.328891
0.229257
0.116878
0
0
0.000001
no
no
no
0.454545
1.472084
LAM4520O306
111
7
54.42
0.990991
0.676216
0.495541
0.128896
0
0
0
no
no
no
0.25641
0.339019
ALLIAN112
59
1.75
2.77
0.983051
0.28751
0.253574
0.176797
0
0.000082
0.000776
no
no
no
0.645161
1.268947
Lowest K-S test
28
Probabilistic approach Application of K-S test to data extracted from FPV (2/4) MTTF results for golden tools failures
Test significance
Distribution type
Distribution parameters
Station
# data
Avg
Standard deviation
D gamma
D exponential
D Weibull
threshold
Gamma
Exponential
Weibull
Gamma
Exponential
Weibull
α
β
LAM4520O207
78
16.51
31.38
0.987179
0.190428
0.083977
0.153763
0
0.005888
0.622476
no
no
yes
0.571429
10.26469
LAM4520O303
108
17.07
53.34
0.990741
0.178551
0.280952
0.130674
0
0.001717
0
no
no
no
-
17.07
LAM4520O208
102
28.54
53.24
0.990196
0.186742
0.094751
0.134462
0
0.001352
0.304325
no
no
yes
0.571429
17.74648
LAM4520O213
123
12.65
21.51
0.99187
0.169067
0.086951
0.122447
0
0.001497
0.297043
no
no
yes
0.625
8.847901
LAM4520O209
116
11.46
33.31
0.991379
0.140527
0.26001
0.126087
0
0.01832
0
no
no
no
-
11.46
LAM4520O210
135
9.28
10.44
0.140484
0.106748
0.09012
0.116878
0
0.086074
0.212239
no
no
yes
0.909091
8.867484
LAM4520O306
111
11.31
20.61
0.990991
0.109366
0.136451
0.128896
0
0.131517
0.028919
no
yes
no
-
11.31
ALLIAN112
59
21.36
54.01
0.983051
0.221482
0.21944
0.176797
0
0.004994
0.005575
no
no
no
0.454545
0.81333
Lowest K-S test
29
Probabilistic approach Application of K-S test to data extracted from FPV (3/4) MTTR results for golden tools PMs Test significance Station
# data
Avg
Standard deviation
D gamma
Distribution type
Distribution parameters
D exponential
D Weibull
threshold
Gamma
Exponential
Weibull
Gamma
Exponential
Weibull
α
β
LAM4520O207
194
2.85
8.22
0.994845
0.464547
0.280585
0.097499
0
0
0
no
no
no
0.425532
1.009563
LAM4520O303
197
3
9.95
0.994924
0.472284
0.320832
0.096753
0
0
0
no
no
no
0.384615
0.809296
LAM4520O208
118
3.64
6.98
0.991525
0.360658
0.216121
0.125014
0
0
0.000025
no
no
no
0.555556
2.169273
LAM4520O213
276
2.73
7.64
0.996377
0.454566
0.178707
0.081742
0
0
0
no
no
no
0.425532
0.964051
LAM4520O209
285
2.55
6.78
0.996491
0.495555
0.204094
0.080441
0
0
0
no
no
no
0.444444
0.999823
LAM4520O210
227
4.65
26.78
0.995595
0.456195
0.456734
0.090134
0
0
0
no
no
no
-
4.65
LAM4520O306
233
2.68
7.27
0.995708
0.380725
0.251248
0.088966
0
0
0
no
no
no
0.434783
0.998243
ALLIAN112
184
3.76
28.83
0.994565
0.52887
0.622604
0.100113
0
0
0
no
no
no
-
3.76
Lowest K-S test
30
Probabilistic approach Application of K-S test to data extracted from FPV (4/4) MTBPM results for golden tools PMs
Test significance
Distribution parameters
Distribution type
Station
# data
Avg
Standard deviation
D gamma
D exponential
D Weibull
threshold
Gamma
Exponenti al
Weibull
Gamma
Exponential
Weibull
α
β
LAM4520O207
194
27.06
33.74
0.310447
0.165252
0.243772
0.097499
0
0.000041
0
no
no
no
-
27.06
LAM4520O303
197
21.30
20.8
0.163803
0.149983
0.149983
0.096753
0.00042
0.000241
0.000241
no
no
no
1
21.296
LAM4520O208
118
28.3
30.57
0.161027
0.104668
0.118599
0.125014
0.003796
0.141556
0.066777
no
yes
no
-
28.3
LAM4520O213
276
16.5
18.78
0.186568
0.155111
0.141913
0.081742
0
0.000003
0.00025
no
no
no
0.869565
15.382
LAM4520O209
285
17.44
16.96
0.170783
0.151519
0.148993
0.080441
0
0.000003
0.000005
no
no
no
1.052632
17.794
LAM4520O210
227
22.31
29.35
0.366045
0.167081
0.21617
0.090134
0
0.000005
0
no
no
no
-
22.31
LAM4520O306
233
20.33
18.86
0.211389
0.156893
0.150686
0.088966
0
0.000017
0.000043
no
no
no
1.052632
20.750
ALLIAN112
184
29.47
32.5
0.22515
0.250833
0.277687
0.100113
0
0
0
no
no
no
0.822394
0.027
Lowest K-S test
31
Probabilistic approach STAP calendars update (1/2) Equipment failures calendar DOWNCALNAME
DOWNCALTYPE
MTTFDIST
MTTF
MTTF2
MTTFUNITS
MTTRDIST
MTTR
MTTR2
MTTRUNITS
DN_LAM4520O207
mttf_by_cal
weibull
0.571429
10.26469
hr
weibull
0.454545
1.439969
hr
DN_LAM4520O303
mttf_by_cal
exponential
17.07
hr
weibull
0.298507
0.667273
hr
DN_LAM4520O208
mttf_by_cal
weibull
0.571429
17.74648
hr
weibull
0.588235
3.535006
hr
DN_LAM4520O213
mttf_by_cal
weibull
0.625
8.847901
hr
weibull
0.285714
0.476918
hr
DN_LAM4520O209
mttf_by_cal
exponential
11.46
hr
weibull
0.31746
0.40053
hr
DN_LAM4520O210
mttf_by_cal
weibull
0.909091
hr
weibull
0.454545
1.472084
hr
DN_LAM4520O306
mttf_by_cal
exponential
11.31
hr
weibull
0.25641
0.339019
hr
DN_ALLIAN112
mttf_by_cal
weibull
0.454545
hr
weibull
0.645161
1.268947
hr
8.867484
0.81333
Association of calendar file to single stations RESTYPE
RESNAME
CALTYPE
CALNAME
FOADIST
FOA
FOA2
FOAUNITS
stn
LAM4520O207
down
DN_LAM4520O207
weibull
0.571429
10.26469
hr
stn
LAM4520O303
down
DN_LAM4520O303
exponential
stn
LAM4520O208
down
DN_LAM4520O208
weibull
0.571429
17.74648
hr
stn
LAM4520O213
down
DN_LAM4520O213
weibull
0.625
8.847901
hr
stn
LAM4520O209
down
DN_LAM4520O209
exponential
11.46
stn
LAM4520O210
down
DN_LAM4520O210
weibull
stn
LAM4520O306
down
DN_LAM4520O306
exponential
stn
ALLIAN112
down
DN_ALLIAN112
weibull
17.07
0.909091
hr
hr 8.867484
11.31 0.454545
hr hr
0.81333
hr
32 NOTE: Each station has its own calendar
Probabilistic approach STAP calendars update (2/2) Equipment PM calendar PMCALNAME
PMCALTYPE
MTBPMDIST
MTBPM
PM_LAM4520O207
mtbpm_by_cal
exponential
27.06
PM_LAM4520O303
mtbpm_by_cal
weibull
1
PM_LAM4520O208
mtbpm_by_cal
exponential
28.3
PM_LAM4520O213
mtbpm_by_cal
weibull
0.869565
PM_LAM4520O209
mtbpm_by_cal
weibull
1.052632
PM_LAM4520O210
mtbpm_by_cal
exponential
22.31
PM_LAM4520O306
mtbpm_by_cal
weibull
1.052632
PM_ALLIAN112
mtbpm_by_cal
gamma
0.822394
MTBPM2
MTBPMUNITS
MTTRDIST
MTTR
MTTR2
MTTRUNITS
hr
weibull
0.425532
1.009563
hr
hr
weibull
0.384615
0.809296
hr
hr
weibull
0.555556
2.169273
hr
15.38174
hr
weibull
0.425532
0.964051
hr
17.79451
hr
weibull
0.444444
0.999823
hr
hr
exponential
4.65
20.75067
hr
weibull
0.434783
0.027905
hr
exponential
3.76
21.296
hr 0.998243
hr
Association of calendar file to single stations RESTYPE
RESNAME
CALTYPE
CALNAME
FOADIST
stn
LAM4520O207
pm
PM_LAM4520O207
exponential
stn
LAM4520O303
pm
PM_LAM4520O303
weibull
stn
LAM4520O208
pm
PM_LAM4520O208
exponential
stn
LAM4520O213
pm
PM_LAM4520O213
weibull
0.869565
15.38174
hr
stn
LAM4520O209
pm
PM_LAM4520O209
weibull
1.052632
17.79451
hr
stn
LAM4520O210
pm
PM_LAM4520O210
exponential
stn
LAM4520O306
pm
PM_LAM4520O306
weibull
1.052632
20.75067
hr
stn
ALLIAN112
pm
PM_ALLIAN112
gamma
0.822394
0.027905
hr
NOTE: Each station has its own calendar
FOA
FOA2
27.06 1
FOAUNITS hr
21.296
28.3
hr hr
22.31
hr
hr
33
Results – application of KS-TEST to golden tools 4 days run horizon 8 Golden tools in ETCHING area Parameters used as reference for comparison Transactions up-down and viceversa (occurrence and duration) Moves – transition of a wafer from one operation to the next one
34
Results – golden tools (1/2) 30 25 20 15 10 1600
5
1400
0
1200
down %
1000
fails #
800 600
6000
400 200
5000
0 Average MTTR (hrs)
4000
Actual 3000
Sim_before Sim_after
2000 1000 0 Total MTTR (hrs)
Total MTTF (hrs)
Results – golden tools (2/2) 1500
18000
1450
17500
1400
17000
1350
16500
Moves simul_beforemoves actual
1300 1250
Moves simul_aftermoves actual
1200
Actual
16000
sim_before sim_after
15500
1150
15000
1100
14500
1050 1000
14000 1
1
140
95
120
94.5
100 80 60
94 93.5
92.5
40
92
20
91.5
0
91
25 /0 1/ 20 25 08 /0 1 1/ 20 25 08 /0 2 1/ 20 26 08 /0 3 1/ 20 26 08 /0 1 1/ 20 26 08 /0 2 1/ 27 200 8 /0 3 1/ 20 27 08 /0 1 1/ 20 28 08 /0 2 1/ 20 28 08 /0 1 1/ 20 28 08 /0 2 1/ 20 08 3
Adherence sim_before
93
Adherence sim_after
90.5 90 1
Results – application of KS-TEST to whole simulation model 4 days run horizon ~ 500 stations in 10 homogeneous areas Parameters used as reference for comparison By station PCCOMPS – number of wafers processed by station Down and PM % per shift
Moves by area
37
Results – whole model % stations adherent to reality, by area
FOTOATT
FOTOSVI
DIFF
METAL
Sim_before
36%
27%
8%
36%
Sim_after
64%
73%
92%
64%
Results – whole model moves by area and by shift
Shift 1
Shift 2
FOTOATT
FOTOSVI
METAL
FOTOATT
FOTOSVI
METAL
Sim_before
14640
8370
8730
15112
8193
9341
Sim_after
14625
8330
8551
13754
7856
7932
Actual
17052
9491
10887
12902
7824
7629
Results – whole model PCCOMPS by station - figures
Results – whole model DOWN and PM % by station - figures
Benefits Simulation nearer to reality Number and frequency of transitions and up and down times are next to reality Moves target better estimated (not over-estimated) Better Adherence
Deterministic approach drawbacks Data manual update is not always based on correct data and executed at right times Does not consider products mix variability
Probabilistic approach advantages Weekly data update based on historical equipment behavior Real-time data Better usage of simulator potential 42