End-Use Energy Efficiency and Demand Response Research Program Nicaraguan Energy Institute (INE) NARUC September 18, 2009
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EPRI End-Use Energy Efficiency Program Advancing EE & DR as Reliable Resources • Infuse technology pipeline for EE/DR programs through testing & demonstration • Lead efficiency development in electronics and “infotainment” technology • Advance technology to enable automated, ubiquitous DR • Provide analytical frameworks on EE/DR – Potential magnitude – Environmental impact (CO2) – Valuation/economic impact – Measurement & verification – Feedback and price effects © 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
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EPRI’s EE & DR Living Laboratory Recently Featured in TIME
Evaluating and testing energy efficiency technology © 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
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Program Structure, 2009-2010
Program 170 End-Use Energy Efficiency & Demand Response 170A Analytical Frameworks
© 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
170B Demand Response Systems
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170C Energy-Efficient Technologies
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P170 2009 Portfolio of Projects 170A Analytical Frameworks EE Æ CO2 Modeling Energy-Use Feedback DR Valuation Framework Plug Load Analysis
170B DR Systems DR-Ready Appliance Designation Thermal Energy Storage Integrated Controls for Smart Home Intelligent Building Control Systems 170C EE Technologies Industrial Energy Management Tool Efficient Data Centers Heat Pumps Appliances & Commercial Equipment Advanced Lighting Electronics Power Supplies Advanced Motors
© 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
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2009 Prism: Energy Efficiency and Electrotechnologies figure prominently
U.S. Electric Sector CO2 Emissions (million metric tons)
3500
Technically feasible for U.S. electric sector to reduce net CO2 in 2030 to 41% of 2005 level with full tech portfolio
3000
EIA Base Case 2009 = 0.95% growth through 2030
Efficiency
2500
Renewables 2000
Nuclear Coal, CCS
1500 1000 500 0 1990
1016987 1995
Efficiency
Electro-tech
PEV
• Maximum Achievable Potential case
• Electricity replaces ~ 4.5% of direct fossil fuel use by 2030
Electro‐ Technologies
• 8% reduction in 2030 2000
© 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
2005
1018871 2010 6
2015
2020
2025
2030 6
Energy Efficiency Potential Study Potential U.S. Energy Efficiency Savings – Now to 2030 • Detailed micro-economic model • Calibrated with input from industry experts • Database of energy efficiency technologies Latest Research Results from EPRI’s Living Laboratory © 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
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Segmentation of Analysis
Distinction between existing and new homes/buildings
Multiple equipment efficiency options per technology category © 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
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Stock Turnover – Residential Refrigerators
=
© 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
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Stock Turnover – Residential Refrigerators
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Technology Choices Standard Efficiency ENERGY STAR Tier 1 ENERGY STAR Tier 2
Economic Screening Benefit/Cost Analysis
Adoption Rates
Inverter-Driven
© 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
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Energy Efficiency Potential Analysis Does it create positive net present value for customers?
Behavioral barriers; supply constraints
Program budget realities and learning curves
Maximum Achievable Potential
Economic Potential
Market Screen
Realistic Achievable Potential Program Screen
Economic Screen © 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
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U.S. Electricity Consumption Impact of Utility Programs 5,000 Growth Rate
Electricity (Billion kWh)
Potential
4,500
Growth Avoided Rate kWh [1 2030[1] Reduction ]
Realistic Achievable
0.8%
5%
22%
Maximum Achievable
0.7%
8%
36%
Economic
0.5%
11%
49%
ne i l se .07% a B ~1 8 0 20 R a t e Achievable O h E A wt tic Potential s i l o a Gr Re m u xim a M Economic Potential [3]
4,000
3,500
2000
In 2030, Realistic Achievable Potential savings of 236 billion kWh…equivalent to 5X the electricity consumed today in New York City 2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
[1] Relative to AEO 2008 Reference Case [2] Includes embedded impact of EE programs implicit in AEO 2008 [3] Consumers adopt all available technologies with positive net present value © 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
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Opportunities for Energy Efficiency Savings Top 10 Energy Efficiency Achievable Potential Opportunities Commercial Lighting Industrial 1-5 hp motors Residential Color TV Residential Programmable Thermostat Commercial Central AC Residential Lighting Commercial Monitors 2030 Commercial Personal Computers
2020 2010
Residential Refrigerators Residential Reduce Standby Wattage -
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30
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60
70
80
90
100
Realistic Achievable Potential* (Billion kWh) * Savings reflect total EE program savings potential, inclusive of savings implicit in AEO 2008 © 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
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Heat Pump Technology
Assessment, Testing, Demonstration Integrated Heat Pump – Space Conditioning & Water Heating System and instrumentation installed; testing commencing
Heat Pump Water Heater Testing GE, AO Smith, Eco Cute
Advanced Dehumidification Lab tests using thermal chambers
Geothermal Heat Pump Evaluation of hybrid applications
© 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Variable Refrigerant Flow Field testing Daikin VRV system
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Advanced Efficient Lighting LED Signage • Efficient, yes, but… • Potential massive growth • Power quality questions • Each module has own power supply, fan, data connection • Lab testing sample power supplies
14 x 56 ft LED billboard = 2,162 CFLs (20-Watts)
= 13 homes
© 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
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Simulation of High Concentration CFL Impact on Distribution System
Selected variety of CFLs
Test current, phase angle, power factor in lab Defined CFL Selection & Usage for 3 Living Scenarios
Documented Results Compute simulations using PQ model © 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
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Selected distribution circuits for modeling 16
Efficient Data Centers •Data centers hitting thermal limits •Can’t remove enough heat Æ can’t build to capacity •Need credible data on innovative heat reduction and efficiency strategies •Helped draft DOE road map for data center efficiency •Helping write specification for DC power distribution •Testing UPS efficiency © 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
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Consumer Electronic Plug Loads: Efficient Power Supplies & Load Research • Advance power supply efficiencies of HDTVs, gaming consoles, laptops, home theater systems – Similar model as “80+” for desktop PCs – Game console ~ 1/3 of a refrigerator – Designers only beginning to think about efficiency • Updating standard test procedures • Quantifying losses in device power supplies • Distributed measurement plan to characterize plug load usage
© 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
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Modeling CO2 Impacts of Energy Efficiency CO2 Intensity for Selected Commercial EE Programs (Tons / MWh) ECAR 0.9
ERCOT Cooling
Int. Lighting
Ext. Lighting
0.9
0.8
0.8
0.7
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
‐
‐ 2010
2020
Cooling
2010
2030
Int. Lighting
2020
Ext. Lighting
2030
19 © 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
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Residential Electricity Use Feedback
SDG&E TXU WPS*
Puget Sound SMUD
• Feedback EM&V (back-end protocols) • Supplemental – Pilot design (front-end protocols) • SRP M-Power program review • Monitoring Feedback pilots, programs, initiatives • New market entrants: Google and Microsoft © 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
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AEP AEP Ameren* Ameren* CPS Energy BG&E SDG&E ComEd Energie Baden- VEIC* Württemberg (Germany) Hydro One* LGIS (Australia)* SCL SDG&E Interview/update SMUD completed TXU WPS* 20
New EPRI Findings
•EPRI has recently released a study on “The Potential to Reduce CO2 Emissions by Expanding End-Use Applications of Electricity” •EPRI Report TR-1018871, March 2009
© 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
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Total System Efficiency of Many Electric End Uses Have Far Less Overall CO2 Impact Requires less energy to produce equal or greater results! Electric Device
Fossil-Fueled Device © 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
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Electricity’s Advantage: A Refined Energy Form
Quantity
© 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Control
Precision
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Intensity
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Example: Total System Efficiency of Electric vs. Gas Efficiency 31-50%
Loss ≈7%
Electric Device
1.0 Efficiency 100%
Fossil-Fueled Device
Efficiency 84-90% © 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
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Total System Efficiency – Freeze Concentration Example 31-50%
≈7% Freeze Concentration 144 Btu/lb Heat Recovery -30 Btu/lb
2.5-4.0 lbs Water Extracted per 1000 Btu
100% 100% Evaporation 1000 Btu/lb
84-90%
Heat Recovery -300 Btu/lb
© 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
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1.2-1.3 lbs Water Extracted per 1000 Btu
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Potential CO2 Reductions
Cumulative Decrease in Energy-Related C02 Emissions Between 2009 and 2030 by Sector and Efficient Electric End-Use Technology © 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
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Other Studies – Japan
© 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
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Change in Demand Relative to EIA (TWh)
Prism Changes in Electricity Demand 600 400 200 0 2015
2020
2025
2030
-200
Efficiency Smart Grid/T&D Electric Trans Electrotech Net
-400 Electricity demand growth (2009 – 2030) = 1.05%
-600
Net incremental growth of electricity = 0.10% Prism vs. AEO 2009 Base Case
© 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
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© from 2009 Electric Power Research Image NASA Visible Earth Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
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