1

Employment Forecasts Historic & Projected Employment Olmsted County 1990-2040

165,900 Health & Social Serv

149,015

Other Services Retail trade

128,410

Lodging & restaurants

F.I.R.E.

108,457

Manufacturing

101,468

Construction Local Government/Education

79,801

Business Serv Information Federal & State Gov

Transp/Warehsg/Util. Wholesale trade Farm employment

79,801 1990

2000

2010

101,468 2020

108,457 2030

128,410

165,900 Ag Serv / Nat. Res. 149,015 Mining Total Employment

H

O

2040

L

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

Health & Social Serv

21,622

30,739

40,373

48,780

58,190

65,980

Other Services

8,076

10,800

11,190

14,030

17,180

19,750

Retail trade

9,750

11,850

11,613

13,400

15,100

16,160

Lodging & restaurants

4,750

6,433

6,912

8,525

10,390

11,790

F.I.R.E.

3,319

4,683

5,939

6,850

7,850

8,750

Manufacturing

12,147

12,780

7,889

8,300

8,500

8,650

Construction

3,183

5,034

4,162

5,450

6,500

7,400

Local Government/Education

4,901

5,488

5,749

6,200

6,550

6,800

F

Business Serv

3,082

3,924

4,219

5,200

6,010

6,750

T

800

1,050

1,632

2,275

2,850

3,550

Federal & State Gov

2,628

2,697

2,849

2,950

3,100

3,245

Transp/Warehsg/Util.

1,654

2,311

2,402

2,650

2,900

3,150

Wholesale trade

1,540

1,713

1,815

2,130

2,325

2,480

Farm employment

2,078

1,804

1,458

1,375

1,250

1,100

Ag Serv / Nat. Res.

101

101

196

230

250

270

100

61

59

65

70

75

79,801

101,468

108,457

128,410

149,015

165,900

Information

Mining Total Employment

F

L

B

T

2

DMC Job Impact Info (for reference)

3

Employment Change Historic & Projected Employment Olmsted County 149,015 101,468

108,457

2000

2010

165,900

128,410

79,801

61,258

1980

1990

2020

2030

2040

Historic / Projected Change in Total Employment by Decade 1970-2040 19,657

21,667

19,953

18,543

20,605 16,885

6,989

1970-1980

1980-1990

1990-2000

2000-2010

2010-2020

2020-2030

2030-2040

Impact of Recession on Total Non-Farm Employment 11,083 2007 Peak to 2011 Bottom 2000 to 2007 Peak

4,628

2011 Trough to Fall 2013 (6,661)

4

Population Projection - 2040 Historic and Projected Population Olmsted County 215,200 194,650 167,450 144,248

92,006

1980

Age Group 0 to 4 5 to 9 10 to 14 15 to 19 20 to 24 25 to 29 30 to 34 35 to 39 40 to 44 45 to 49 50 to 54 55 to 59 60 to 64 65 to 69 70 to 74 75 to 79 80 to 84 85+

106,470

1990

124,277

2000

2010

2020

2010 Census Males Females Total

2040 Projection Males Females Total

144,248 10,783 10,337 9,562 8,826 8,239 11,456 10,562 9,090 9,092 10,976 11,190 9,098 6,904 5,400 4,187 3,207 2,588 2,751

215,200 14,599 13,649 13,306 12,151 11,060 14,117 13,573 13,322 11,723 11,251 10,966 12,074 11,075 9,804 9,900 11,647 11,350 9,631

70,485 5,554 5,237 4,865 4,531 3,898 5,514 5,360 4,570 4,528 5,407 5,380 4,457 3,269 2,528 1,946 1,470 1,092 879

73,763 5,229 5,100 4,697 4,295 4,341 5,942 5,202 4,520 4,564 5,569 5,810 4,641 3,635 2,872 2,241 1,737 1,496 1,872

103,732 7,487 7,001 6,803 6,287 5,379 6,834 6,711 6,438 5,613 5,349 5,029 5,603 5,328 4,467 4,599 5,318 5,135 4,351

111,468 7,112 6,648 6,503 5,864 5,681 7,283 6,862 6,884 6,110 5,902 5,938 6,472 5,747 5,337 5,300 6,329 6,215 5,281

2030

2040

Age Group Change Males Females Total 70,952 3,816 3,312 3,744 3,325 2,821 2,661 3,011 4,232 2,631 275 -224 2,976 4,171 4,404 5,713 8,440 8,762 6,880

33,247 1,933 1,764 1,938 1,756 1,481 1,320 1,351 1,868 1,085 -58 -351 1,146 2,059 1,939 2,653 3,848 4,043 3,472

37,705 1,883 1,548 1,806 1,569 1,340 1,341 1,660 2,364 1,546 333 128 1,831 2,112 2,465 3,059 4,592 4,719 5 3,409

Projected Population by Place 1980

Historic / Census Count 1990 2000 2010

ROCOG Projection

Change by Decade

2020

2030

2040

125,776 6,064 1,435 897 2,258 1,711 1,139 6,896

148,046 7,270 1,711 1,099 2,582 2,244 1,637 8,030

164,633 8,851 1,921 1,274 2,849 2,612 2,040 9,067

19,007 1,150 229 162 281 411 436 980

22,270 1,206 276 202 325 533 498 1,134

16,587 1,581 211 175 267 368 403 1,037

2010-2020 2020-2030

2030-2040

Cities Rochester Byron Chatfield (Olm) Dover (city) Eyota (city) Oronoco (city) Pine Island (Olm) Stewartville Townships Cascade Dover Elmira Eyota Farmington Haverhill High Forest Kalmar Marion New Haven Orion Oronoco Pleasant Grove Quincy Rochester Rock Dell Salem Viola

57,890 1,715

Township total City Total Township % City % Rochester % Pi ne Is l a nd (Good) Cha tfi el d (Fi l l ) Pi ne Is l a nd (tota l ) Cha tfi el d (tota l ) Tota l wi th Adj Ci ti es

9 3,925

71,590 2,495 1,012 396 1,492 761 3 4,563

2,384 491 408 523 626 1,295 1,545 1,209 5,299 1,122 602 1,696 776 435 4,598 706 1,153 574

2,644 533 289 442 539 1,366 973 1,281 5,933 1,190 611 2,031 709 363 2,987 641 984 642

3,183 440 352 448 516 1,601 1,085 1,196 6,159 1,205 614 2,239 787 356 2,916 627 1,061 555

2,815 389 354 464 444 1,495 976 1,046 3,653 1,184 592 2,220 806 339 1,629 647 1,086 589

2,831 377 354 469 433 1,575 1,039 1,055 3,936 1,173 586 2,305 812 326 1,781 642 1,072 553

2,924 370 341 468 416 1,676 1,111 1,072 4,483 1,169 604 2,406 819 308 1,871 624 1,091 526

2,936 356 335 432 410 1,749 1,144 1,015 4,879 1,123 583 2,483 777 281 1,943 604 1,079 497

16 -12 0 5 -11 80 63 9 283 -12 -6 85 6 -13 152 -5 -14 -36

93 -7 -14 -1 -16 102 72 17 546 -3 18 102 6 -19 90 -18 19 -27

12 -14 -6 -36 -6 72 33 -57 396 -47 -21 76 -41 -27 72 -19 -12 -30

25,442 66,564

24,158 82,312

25,340 98,937

20,728 123,520

21,318 146,175

22,279 172,619

22,623 193,247

590 22,655

960 26,444

344 20,628

28% 72% 63%

23% 77% 67%

20% 80% 69%

14% 86% 74%

13% 87% 75%

11% 89% 76%

10% 90% 76%

1,977 1,160

2,129 1,403

2,271 1,258

2,560 1,573

2,760 1,600

2,980 1,670

3,190 1,740

1,986 2,055

2,132 2,415

2,389 2,395

3,263 2,779

3,899 3,035

4,617 3,381

5,230 3,661

895 312 1,244 574

85,806 106,769 3,500 4,914 1,137 1,206 438 735 1,644 1,977 883 1,300 118 703 5,411 5,916

95,143 110,002 127,806 148,381

171,854

199,548

220,800

6

Population Change Population Change by Decade - Olmsted County 27,200 23,202

18,572

17,807

20,550

19,971

14,464 7,902

1960 - 1970

1970 - 1980

1980 - 1990

1990 - 2000

2000 - 2010

2010 - 2020

2020 - 2030

2030 - 2040

Annual Population Growth Rate - Olmsted County 2.53% 1.56%

1.47%

1.52%

1.50%

1.50%

1.01%

0.90%

1960 - 1970

1970 - 1980

1980 - 1990

1990 - 2000

2000 - 2010

2010 - 2020

2020 - 2030

2030 - 2040

Population Change by Decade - Rochester 20,963

22,270 19,007 16,587

14,216

13,103

4,124

1960-1970

1970-1980

1990-2000

2000-2010

2010-2020

2020-2030

2030-2040

Annual Population Growth Rate - Rochester 2.83%

2.15%

2.21% 1.65%

1.64% 1.07%

0.74%

1960-1970

1970-1980

1990-2000

2000-2010

2010-2020

2020-2030

2030-2040

7

Key Takeaway: One of the main challenges employers in Olmsted County / Rochester will face in future is finding enough workers to fill job replacement needs due to retirement of Baby Boomers + new job openings that will be created

LABOR FORCE INFORMATION

8

9

9

2010 2030 39,508 49,529 79,703 90,656 25,037 52,178 144,248 192,364

Growth 10,021 10,953 27,141 48,116

LFPR 10% 90% 24% 36%

From Staff Presentation to City Council and County Board / Summer 2013

labor force growth need labor force gap

Age Group 0 to 19 20-59 60+ total

37,000 19,762

Labor Force Growth 1,002 7,104 6,378 17,238

Olmsted County Labor Force Gap

Current Regional Labor Force Info Source: CTPP-ACS

Source of Olmsted County workers Olmsted Commuter County Counties Rest of MN 1990 53,630 10,900 871 2000 62,262 15,805 1,291 2010 69,909 17,495 1,736

Wis. 227 269 433

Iowa 223 397 536

Other 187 231 290

**Commuter Counties include 7 Adjacent counties of Dodge, Goodhue, Wabasha, Winona Fillmore, Mower, Freeborn, which account for 85% of all commuters (in 2010)

% of Olmsted and "Commuter Counties" Employed Residents working in Olmsted County Olmsted 1990 89.2% 2000 88.1% 2010 91.7%

Dodge Fillmore Freeborn Goodhue Mower Wabasha Winona 37.8% 16.5% 0.4% 7.1% 8.9% 24.2% 4.2% 38.5% 23.0% 0.9% 8.9% 10.3% 26.3% 6.8% 44.3% 26.7% 0.8% 10.1% 10.7% 29.9% 6.5%

COMMUTING TO ROCHESTER within Olmsted County Number of Commuters to Rochester

1990 BYRON 645 Cascade Township CHATFIELD 133 DOVER 81 DOVER TWP 44 ELMIRA TWP 54 EYOTA 319 EYOTA TWP 92 FARMINGTON 109 Haverhill Twp HIGH FOREST TWP 56 KALMAR TWP 346 Marion Twp New Haven Twp 404 ORION TWP 149 ORONOCO 244 ORONOCO TWP 620 PLEASANT GROVE TWP 190 QUINCY TWP 39 Rochester Twp ROCK DELL TWP 245 SALEM TWP 281 STEWARTVILLE 1,102 VIOLA TWP 132 Total* * w/o 4 townships 4 Townships

5,285 5,285 0

Percentage of Local Labor Force Working in Rochester

2000 1,396 1,392 301 148 105 86 618 149 159 736 395 493 3,029 421 173 387 976 333 61 1,228 231 388 1,824 180

2010 1,850 1,300 365 255 80 90 845 205 165 720 110 350 1,675 480 180 435 935 280 90 755 175 385 1,960 175

2000 71% 82% 25% 64% 38% 42% 69% 63% 56% 80% 66% 70% 79% 62% 54% 81% 73% 32% 82% 60% 65% 65% 54%

2010 71% 81% 55% 70% 42% 48% 70% 72% 62% 81% 21% 62% 80% 65% 61% 78% 75% 69% 46% 79% 58% 65% 64% 57%

15,244 8,859 6,385

14,705 10,255 4,450

67% 59% 80%

67% 63% 80%

10

11

Mayo Employee / Residence ZipCode

Commuters Key Takeaway: To help fill Labor Force Gap ROCOG estimates Share of resident labor force in Commuter Counties working in Olmsted County & # of Workers from Areas beyond Commuter Counties will increase Share of Resident Labor Force working in Olmsted County 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Dodge Fillmore Freeborn Goodhue Mower Wabasha Winona 37.8% 16.5% 0.4% 7.1% 8.9% 24.2% 4.2% 38.5% 23.0% 0.9% 8.9% 10.3% 26.3% 6.8% 44.3% 26.7% 0.8% 10.1% 10.7% 29.9% 6.5% 46.7% 32.3% 1.1% 11.7% 11.7% 32.5% 8.2% 49.96% 37.44% 1.26% 13.25% 12.59% 35.37% 9.36% 53.21% 42.55% 1.44% 14.76% 13.47% 38.23% 10.53%

Share of Jobs Filled by Workers from.. Rest of MN 1.32% 1.61% 1.92% 2.22% 2.52% 2.82%

Wisc 0.34% 0.34% 0.48% 0.52% 0.59% 0.66%

Iowa 0.34% 0.49% 0.59% 0.73% 0.86% 0.99%

Other 0.28% 0.29% 0.32% 0.33% 0.35% 0.37%

Key Concern: In 2000’s the growth in commuters slowed dramatically from the Commuter Counties (1st chart), and State Demographer projects limited growth in Labor Force in these counties going forward (2nd chart) % Change in Commuters by Decade 140% 120% 100% 80% 1980-1990

60%

1990-2000

40%

2000-2010

20% 0%

-20%

Projected Labor Force SE Minnesota 250,000 206,990

234,916

200,000 150,000 116,734 100,000

116,890

2020

118,182

2030

90,100

2040 50,000

12

Olmsted

7 Commuter Counties

Eight County totals

Commuters Key Takeaway: ROCOG assumes the labor force participation rates will increase among older workers in particular to help close some of the labor force gap. **Labor Force Participation Rates assumptions provided by State Demographer’s Office

Assumed Labor Force Participation Rates

Male

2010 2020 2030 2040 Female

2010 2020 2030 2040

Age16 to 19

48.50% 73.89% 84.96% 89.97% 91.83% 92.76% 91.16% 83.61% 73.89% 57.49% 35.37% 22.44% 9.03%

53.63% 79.94% 83.87% 85.39% 83.43% 82.71% 84.88% 77.34% 67.20% 51.14% 28.86% 15.50% 3.70%

Age20 to 21 Age22 to 24 Age25 to 29 Age30 to 34 Age35 to 44 Age45 to 54 Age55 to 59 Age60 to 61 Age62 to 64 Age65 to 69 Age70 to 74 Age 75 plus

44.36% 71.81% 83.62% 89.26% 91.55% 92.29% 91.54% 85.37% 74.48% 59.83% 38.56% 24.27% 8.69%

40.57% 69.79% 82.31% 88.91% 91.26% 91.83% 91.93% 87.17% 75.07% 62.26% 41.76% 26.26% 8.37%

37.11% 67.83% 81.01% 88.94% 90.98% 91.36% 92.31% 89.01% 75.66% 64.79% 44.95% 28.40% 8.05%

Age16 to 19 Age20 to 21 Age22 to 24 Age25 to 29 Age30 to 34 Age35 to 44 Age45 to 54 Age55 to 59 Age60 to 61 Age62 to 64 Age65 to 69 Age70 to 74 Age 75 plus

49.66% 78.27% 85.07% 86.78% 85.20% 82.94% 85.90% 82.92% 76.81% 58.11% 33.16% 18.24% 4.07%

45.99% 76.63% 86.26% 88.18% 86.97% 83.18% 86.92% 87.05% 83.33% 65.08% 37.47% 20.99% 4.43%

42.59% 75.02% 87.45% 89.58% 88.74% 83.41% 87.97% 89.73% 86.75% 72.04% 41.78% 23.73% 4.80%

13

Labor Force Factors / Migration Trends Key Takeaway: ROCOG estimates that Net Migration needs to increase by a factor of 2x-3x above historic level to meet labor force needs Olmsted County Net Migration 2000-2012

Contribution of Migration to

Components of Change Population Change 2000-2012 2000-2012

1500 1300

1100

2000-01 2001-02

900

2002-03

2003-04

700

2004-05

500 300

2007-08

100

Births

26,627

Deaths

10,406

Natural Increase International net migration (97% of net migration)

16,221 6,258

Domestic net migration

2005-06 2006-07

Olmsted County

Total Net Migration

178 6,436

2008-09 2009-10

(100)

2010-11 2011-12

(300) (500)

Olmsted County Net Migration

MN

Net Migration to Olmsted County by Geographic Region US

Foreign

800 2000 600 400

2001 2002 2003

200 0

2004 2005 2006

-200 -400

2007 2008 2009

-600 -800

2010

14