1
Employment Forecasts Historic & Projected Employment Olmsted County 1990-2040
165,900 Health & Social Serv
149,015
Other Services Retail trade
128,410
Lodging & restaurants
F.I.R.E.
108,457
Manufacturing
101,468
Construction Local Government/Education
79,801
Business Serv Information Federal & State Gov
Transp/Warehsg/Util. Wholesale trade Farm employment
79,801 1990
2000
2010
101,468 2020
108,457 2030
128,410
165,900 Ag Serv / Nat. Res. 149,015 Mining Total Employment
H
O
2040
L
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
Health & Social Serv
21,622
30,739
40,373
48,780
58,190
65,980
Other Services
8,076
10,800
11,190
14,030
17,180
19,750
Retail trade
9,750
11,850
11,613
13,400
15,100
16,160
Lodging & restaurants
4,750
6,433
6,912
8,525
10,390
11,790
F.I.R.E.
3,319
4,683
5,939
6,850
7,850
8,750
Manufacturing
12,147
12,780
7,889
8,300
8,500
8,650
Construction
3,183
5,034
4,162
5,450
6,500
7,400
Local Government/Education
4,901
5,488
5,749
6,200
6,550
6,800
F
Business Serv
3,082
3,924
4,219
5,200
6,010
6,750
T
800
1,050
1,632
2,275
2,850
3,550
Federal & State Gov
2,628
2,697
2,849
2,950
3,100
3,245
Transp/Warehsg/Util.
1,654
2,311
2,402
2,650
2,900
3,150
Wholesale trade
1,540
1,713
1,815
2,130
2,325
2,480
Farm employment
2,078
1,804
1,458
1,375
1,250
1,100
Ag Serv / Nat. Res.
101
101
196
230
250
270
100
61
59
65
70
75
79,801
101,468
108,457
128,410
149,015
165,900
Information
Mining Total Employment
F
L
B
T
2
DMC Job Impact Info (for reference)
3
Employment Change Historic & Projected Employment Olmsted County 149,015 101,468
108,457
2000
2010
165,900
128,410
79,801
61,258
1980
1990
2020
2030
2040
Historic / Projected Change in Total Employment by Decade 1970-2040 19,657
21,667
19,953
18,543
20,605 16,885
6,989
1970-1980
1980-1990
1990-2000
2000-2010
2010-2020
2020-2030
2030-2040
Impact of Recession on Total Non-Farm Employment 11,083 2007 Peak to 2011 Bottom 2000 to 2007 Peak
4,628
2011 Trough to Fall 2013 (6,661)
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Population Projection - 2040 Historic and Projected Population Olmsted County 215,200 194,650 167,450 144,248
92,006
1980
Age Group 0 to 4 5 to 9 10 to 14 15 to 19 20 to 24 25 to 29 30 to 34 35 to 39 40 to 44 45 to 49 50 to 54 55 to 59 60 to 64 65 to 69 70 to 74 75 to 79 80 to 84 85+
106,470
1990
124,277
2000
2010
2020
2010 Census Males Females Total
2040 Projection Males Females Total
144,248 10,783 10,337 9,562 8,826 8,239 11,456 10,562 9,090 9,092 10,976 11,190 9,098 6,904 5,400 4,187 3,207 2,588 2,751
215,200 14,599 13,649 13,306 12,151 11,060 14,117 13,573 13,322 11,723 11,251 10,966 12,074 11,075 9,804 9,900 11,647 11,350 9,631
70,485 5,554 5,237 4,865 4,531 3,898 5,514 5,360 4,570 4,528 5,407 5,380 4,457 3,269 2,528 1,946 1,470 1,092 879
73,763 5,229 5,100 4,697 4,295 4,341 5,942 5,202 4,520 4,564 5,569 5,810 4,641 3,635 2,872 2,241 1,737 1,496 1,872
103,732 7,487 7,001 6,803 6,287 5,379 6,834 6,711 6,438 5,613 5,349 5,029 5,603 5,328 4,467 4,599 5,318 5,135 4,351
111,468 7,112 6,648 6,503 5,864 5,681 7,283 6,862 6,884 6,110 5,902 5,938 6,472 5,747 5,337 5,300 6,329 6,215 5,281
2030
2040
Age Group Change Males Females Total 70,952 3,816 3,312 3,744 3,325 2,821 2,661 3,011 4,232 2,631 275 -224 2,976 4,171 4,404 5,713 8,440 8,762 6,880
33,247 1,933 1,764 1,938 1,756 1,481 1,320 1,351 1,868 1,085 -58 -351 1,146 2,059 1,939 2,653 3,848 4,043 3,472
37,705 1,883 1,548 1,806 1,569 1,340 1,341 1,660 2,364 1,546 333 128 1,831 2,112 2,465 3,059 4,592 4,719 5 3,409
Projected Population by Place 1980
Historic / Census Count 1990 2000 2010
ROCOG Projection
Change by Decade
2020
2030
2040
125,776 6,064 1,435 897 2,258 1,711 1,139 6,896
148,046 7,270 1,711 1,099 2,582 2,244 1,637 8,030
164,633 8,851 1,921 1,274 2,849 2,612 2,040 9,067
19,007 1,150 229 162 281 411 436 980
22,270 1,206 276 202 325 533 498 1,134
16,587 1,581 211 175 267 368 403 1,037
2010-2020 2020-2030
2030-2040
Cities Rochester Byron Chatfield (Olm) Dover (city) Eyota (city) Oronoco (city) Pine Island (Olm) Stewartville Townships Cascade Dover Elmira Eyota Farmington Haverhill High Forest Kalmar Marion New Haven Orion Oronoco Pleasant Grove Quincy Rochester Rock Dell Salem Viola
57,890 1,715
Township total City Total Township % City % Rochester % Pi ne Is l a nd (Good) Cha tfi el d (Fi l l ) Pi ne Is l a nd (tota l ) Cha tfi el d (tota l ) Tota l wi th Adj Ci ti es
9 3,925
71,590 2,495 1,012 396 1,492 761 3 4,563
2,384 491 408 523 626 1,295 1,545 1,209 5,299 1,122 602 1,696 776 435 4,598 706 1,153 574
2,644 533 289 442 539 1,366 973 1,281 5,933 1,190 611 2,031 709 363 2,987 641 984 642
3,183 440 352 448 516 1,601 1,085 1,196 6,159 1,205 614 2,239 787 356 2,916 627 1,061 555
2,815 389 354 464 444 1,495 976 1,046 3,653 1,184 592 2,220 806 339 1,629 647 1,086 589
2,831 377 354 469 433 1,575 1,039 1,055 3,936 1,173 586 2,305 812 326 1,781 642 1,072 553
2,924 370 341 468 416 1,676 1,111 1,072 4,483 1,169 604 2,406 819 308 1,871 624 1,091 526
2,936 356 335 432 410 1,749 1,144 1,015 4,879 1,123 583 2,483 777 281 1,943 604 1,079 497
16 -12 0 5 -11 80 63 9 283 -12 -6 85 6 -13 152 -5 -14 -36
93 -7 -14 -1 -16 102 72 17 546 -3 18 102 6 -19 90 -18 19 -27
12 -14 -6 -36 -6 72 33 -57 396 -47 -21 76 -41 -27 72 -19 -12 -30
25,442 66,564
24,158 82,312
25,340 98,937
20,728 123,520
21,318 146,175
22,279 172,619
22,623 193,247
590 22,655
960 26,444
344 20,628
28% 72% 63%
23% 77% 67%
20% 80% 69%
14% 86% 74%
13% 87% 75%
11% 89% 76%
10% 90% 76%
1,977 1,160
2,129 1,403
2,271 1,258
2,560 1,573
2,760 1,600
2,980 1,670
3,190 1,740
1,986 2,055
2,132 2,415
2,389 2,395
3,263 2,779
3,899 3,035
4,617 3,381
5,230 3,661
895 312 1,244 574
85,806 106,769 3,500 4,914 1,137 1,206 438 735 1,644 1,977 883 1,300 118 703 5,411 5,916
95,143 110,002 127,806 148,381
171,854
199,548
220,800
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Population Change Population Change by Decade - Olmsted County 27,200 23,202
18,572
17,807
20,550
19,971
14,464 7,902
1960 - 1970
1970 - 1980
1980 - 1990
1990 - 2000
2000 - 2010
2010 - 2020
2020 - 2030
2030 - 2040
Annual Population Growth Rate - Olmsted County 2.53% 1.56%
1.47%
1.52%
1.50%
1.50%
1.01%
0.90%
1960 - 1970
1970 - 1980
1980 - 1990
1990 - 2000
2000 - 2010
2010 - 2020
2020 - 2030
2030 - 2040
Population Change by Decade - Rochester 20,963
22,270 19,007 16,587
14,216
13,103
4,124
1960-1970
1970-1980
1990-2000
2000-2010
2010-2020
2020-2030
2030-2040
Annual Population Growth Rate - Rochester 2.83%
2.15%
2.21% 1.65%
1.64% 1.07%
0.74%
1960-1970
1970-1980
1990-2000
2000-2010
2010-2020
2020-2030
2030-2040
7
Key Takeaway: One of the main challenges employers in Olmsted County / Rochester will face in future is finding enough workers to fill job replacement needs due to retirement of Baby Boomers + new job openings that will be created
LABOR FORCE INFORMATION
8
9
9
2010 2030 39,508 49,529 79,703 90,656 25,037 52,178 144,248 192,364
Growth 10,021 10,953 27,141 48,116
LFPR 10% 90% 24% 36%
From Staff Presentation to City Council and County Board / Summer 2013
labor force growth need labor force gap
Age Group 0 to 19 20-59 60+ total
37,000 19,762
Labor Force Growth 1,002 7,104 6,378 17,238
Olmsted County Labor Force Gap
Current Regional Labor Force Info Source: CTPP-ACS
Source of Olmsted County workers Olmsted Commuter County Counties Rest of MN 1990 53,630 10,900 871 2000 62,262 15,805 1,291 2010 69,909 17,495 1,736
Wis. 227 269 433
Iowa 223 397 536
Other 187 231 290
**Commuter Counties include 7 Adjacent counties of Dodge, Goodhue, Wabasha, Winona Fillmore, Mower, Freeborn, which account for 85% of all commuters (in 2010)
% of Olmsted and "Commuter Counties" Employed Residents working in Olmsted County Olmsted 1990 89.2% 2000 88.1% 2010 91.7%
Dodge Fillmore Freeborn Goodhue Mower Wabasha Winona 37.8% 16.5% 0.4% 7.1% 8.9% 24.2% 4.2% 38.5% 23.0% 0.9% 8.9% 10.3% 26.3% 6.8% 44.3% 26.7% 0.8% 10.1% 10.7% 29.9% 6.5%
COMMUTING TO ROCHESTER within Olmsted County Number of Commuters to Rochester
1990 BYRON 645 Cascade Township CHATFIELD 133 DOVER 81 DOVER TWP 44 ELMIRA TWP 54 EYOTA 319 EYOTA TWP 92 FARMINGTON 109 Haverhill Twp HIGH FOREST TWP 56 KALMAR TWP 346 Marion Twp New Haven Twp 404 ORION TWP 149 ORONOCO 244 ORONOCO TWP 620 PLEASANT GROVE TWP 190 QUINCY TWP 39 Rochester Twp ROCK DELL TWP 245 SALEM TWP 281 STEWARTVILLE 1,102 VIOLA TWP 132 Total* * w/o 4 townships 4 Townships
5,285 5,285 0
Percentage of Local Labor Force Working in Rochester
2000 1,396 1,392 301 148 105 86 618 149 159 736 395 493 3,029 421 173 387 976 333 61 1,228 231 388 1,824 180
2010 1,850 1,300 365 255 80 90 845 205 165 720 110 350 1,675 480 180 435 935 280 90 755 175 385 1,960 175
2000 71% 82% 25% 64% 38% 42% 69% 63% 56% 80% 66% 70% 79% 62% 54% 81% 73% 32% 82% 60% 65% 65% 54%
2010 71% 81% 55% 70% 42% 48% 70% 72% 62% 81% 21% 62% 80% 65% 61% 78% 75% 69% 46% 79% 58% 65% 64% 57%
15,244 8,859 6,385
14,705 10,255 4,450
67% 59% 80%
67% 63% 80%
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11
Mayo Employee / Residence ZipCode
Commuters Key Takeaway: To help fill Labor Force Gap ROCOG estimates Share of resident labor force in Commuter Counties working in Olmsted County & # of Workers from Areas beyond Commuter Counties will increase Share of Resident Labor Force working in Olmsted County 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Dodge Fillmore Freeborn Goodhue Mower Wabasha Winona 37.8% 16.5% 0.4% 7.1% 8.9% 24.2% 4.2% 38.5% 23.0% 0.9% 8.9% 10.3% 26.3% 6.8% 44.3% 26.7% 0.8% 10.1% 10.7% 29.9% 6.5% 46.7% 32.3% 1.1% 11.7% 11.7% 32.5% 8.2% 49.96% 37.44% 1.26% 13.25% 12.59% 35.37% 9.36% 53.21% 42.55% 1.44% 14.76% 13.47% 38.23% 10.53%
Share of Jobs Filled by Workers from.. Rest of MN 1.32% 1.61% 1.92% 2.22% 2.52% 2.82%
Wisc 0.34% 0.34% 0.48% 0.52% 0.59% 0.66%
Iowa 0.34% 0.49% 0.59% 0.73% 0.86% 0.99%
Other 0.28% 0.29% 0.32% 0.33% 0.35% 0.37%
Key Concern: In 2000’s the growth in commuters slowed dramatically from the Commuter Counties (1st chart), and State Demographer projects limited growth in Labor Force in these counties going forward (2nd chart) % Change in Commuters by Decade 140% 120% 100% 80% 1980-1990
60%
1990-2000
40%
2000-2010
20% 0%
-20%
Projected Labor Force SE Minnesota 250,000 206,990
234,916
200,000 150,000 116,734 100,000
116,890
2020
118,182
2030
90,100
2040 50,000
12
Olmsted
7 Commuter Counties
Eight County totals
Commuters Key Takeaway: ROCOG assumes the labor force participation rates will increase among older workers in particular to help close some of the labor force gap. **Labor Force Participation Rates assumptions provided by State Demographer’s Office
Assumed Labor Force Participation Rates
Male
2010 2020 2030 2040 Female
2010 2020 2030 2040
Age16 to 19
48.50% 73.89% 84.96% 89.97% 91.83% 92.76% 91.16% 83.61% 73.89% 57.49% 35.37% 22.44% 9.03%
53.63% 79.94% 83.87% 85.39% 83.43% 82.71% 84.88% 77.34% 67.20% 51.14% 28.86% 15.50% 3.70%
Age20 to 21 Age22 to 24 Age25 to 29 Age30 to 34 Age35 to 44 Age45 to 54 Age55 to 59 Age60 to 61 Age62 to 64 Age65 to 69 Age70 to 74 Age 75 plus
44.36% 71.81% 83.62% 89.26% 91.55% 92.29% 91.54% 85.37% 74.48% 59.83% 38.56% 24.27% 8.69%
40.57% 69.79% 82.31% 88.91% 91.26% 91.83% 91.93% 87.17% 75.07% 62.26% 41.76% 26.26% 8.37%
37.11% 67.83% 81.01% 88.94% 90.98% 91.36% 92.31% 89.01% 75.66% 64.79% 44.95% 28.40% 8.05%
Age16 to 19 Age20 to 21 Age22 to 24 Age25 to 29 Age30 to 34 Age35 to 44 Age45 to 54 Age55 to 59 Age60 to 61 Age62 to 64 Age65 to 69 Age70 to 74 Age 75 plus
49.66% 78.27% 85.07% 86.78% 85.20% 82.94% 85.90% 82.92% 76.81% 58.11% 33.16% 18.24% 4.07%
45.99% 76.63% 86.26% 88.18% 86.97% 83.18% 86.92% 87.05% 83.33% 65.08% 37.47% 20.99% 4.43%
42.59% 75.02% 87.45% 89.58% 88.74% 83.41% 87.97% 89.73% 86.75% 72.04% 41.78% 23.73% 4.80%
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Labor Force Factors / Migration Trends Key Takeaway: ROCOG estimates that Net Migration needs to increase by a factor of 2x-3x above historic level to meet labor force needs Olmsted County Net Migration 2000-2012
Contribution of Migration to
Components of Change Population Change 2000-2012 2000-2012
1500 1300
1100
2000-01 2001-02
900
2002-03
2003-04
700
2004-05
500 300
2007-08
100
Births
26,627
Deaths
10,406
Natural Increase International net migration (97% of net migration)
16,221 6,258
Domestic net migration
2005-06 2006-07
Olmsted County
Total Net Migration
178 6,436
2008-09 2009-10
(100)
2010-11 2011-12
(300) (500)
Olmsted County Net Migration
MN
Net Migration to Olmsted County by Geographic Region US
Foreign
800 2000 600 400
2001 2002 2003
200 0
2004 2005 2006
-200 -400
2007 2008 2009
-600 -800
2010
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