LATIN AMERICAN CONSENSUS FORECASTS® %
GDP
€
CPI
FX
C/A
A Digest of Economic Forecasts $
%
GDP
€
CPI
Survey Date December 14, 2015 Every month, Consensus Economics surveys around 120 prominent Latin American economic and financial forecasters for their estimates of a range of variables including future growth, inflation, foreign trade, interest rates and exchange rates. More than a dozen countries are covered and the reference data, together with analysis and polls on topical issues, is rushed to subscribers by express mail and e-mail. Survey Highlights
Contents Page Significant Changes in the Consensus ......................................... 2 Quarterly Forecasts (continued on page 30) ..................... 3 Individual Country Forecasts Argentina ............................................ 4 Brazil .................................................. 8 Chile ................................................. 12 Mexico .............................................. 16 Venezuela ......................................... 20 Colombia ........................................... 24 Peru .................................................. 25 Bolivia ............................................... 26 Costa Rica ........................................ 26 Dominican Republic .......................... 26 Ecuador ............................................ 26 El Salvador ....................................... 26 Guatemala ........................................ 27 Honduras .......................................... 27 Nicaragua .......................................... 27 Panama ............................................ 27 Paraguay .......................................... 27 Uruguay ............................................ 27
² Election results in Argentina and Venezuela signal a possible turning point for policy. In Argentina, the election of centreright Mauricio Macri ends 12 years of left-leaning KirchnerFernández rule. Meanwhile, prolonged economic and institutional collapse in Venezuela led to sanction of President Maduro’s socialist party in legislative elections. Both countries face pressing challenges, not least Venezuela where hyperinflation is soaring, and shortages and violent crime are rife. Observers are waiting to see how the loosening of distortive currency and capital controls in Argentina will impact the economic picture. For both countries, this might initially bring more economic pain if their currencies go into free-fall. ² This month’s special survey is a repeat of our regular poll for Quarterly Forecasts in the seven largest Latin American countries, with projections stretching out to mid-2017 (see pages 3, 30 and 31, and the chart below). We also compare our latest Quarterly Projections for the five largest countries with those made in June 2015 and December 2014 (page 2). Our next issue of Latin American Consensus Forecasts will be available at the end of the day on January 20, 2016.
Foreign Exchange Policies and Forecasts ............................ 28-29 Oil Price Forecasts .......................... 29 Quarterly Forecasts (continued from page 3) ............ 30-31 Latin American Economic Activity Table ................................... 32
Latin American Consensus Forecasts (ISSN: 0968-4972) is published by Consensus Economics Inc., 53 Upper Brook Street, London, W1K 2LT, United Kingdom Tel: (44 20) 7491 3211 Fax: (44 20) 7409 2331 Web: www.consensuseconomics.com
Editors: Suyin Kan and Claire V.M. Hubbard Assistant Editor: Robert Hunt Publisher: Philip M. Hubbard
© Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2015. All rights reserved. The contents of this publication, either in whole or in part, may not be reproduced, stored or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, photocopying, digitalization or otherwise without the prior written permission of the publishers. The Editor and Consensus Economics Inc., do not guarantee or provide any warranties or take any responsibility for the information set forth herein, including the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the forecasts or written analysis.
FX
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES INTHE QUARTERLY CONSENSUS Significant Changes in Quarterly Forecast Trends for GDP contrasts this month’s quarterly projections for the five largest Latin American economies (available in full on pages 3, 30 and 31) with those from December 2014 and June 2015. As the charts illustrate, the outlook has worsened for all countries surveyed. Our Argentine panel is now expecting outright recession once again starting in Q1 2016, in response to the unwinding of distortive currency and capital controls and an expected plunge in the peso. Brazil’s ongoing recession is forecast to deepen and extend over the next six quarters at least, while the ballooning budget deficit recently led to a credit rating downgrade to junk status by Fitch Ratings. Collapsing commodity prices (plus the withdrawal of US QE last year) have also adversely affected our panellists’ quarterly expectations, particularly for copperexporting Chile and oil-rich (but cash-poor) Venezuela. % change, Brazil GDP Growth – Quarterly Forecasts y-o-y in December 2014 and June and December 2015 2.0
(% change y-o-y)
December 2014
1.0
% change, y-o-y
Argentina GDP Growth – Quarterly Forecasts in December 2014 and June and December 2015 (% change y-o-y)
4 .0
Outturn
0 .6
0.0
3 .5
June 2015
3 .0
2.9
2 .0
1 .8 1.3
1 .0 0 .0
-0 . 2 -0 . 8
-1 . 0
-1 . 5
December 2014
-2 . 0 -3 . 0
1Q '1 5
2Q '1 5
December 2015
3Q '1 5
4Q '1 5
1Q '1 6
2Q '1 6
3Q '1 6
4Q '1 6
1Q '1 7
Chile GDP Growth – Quarterly Forecasts in December 2014 and June and December 2015 (% change y-o-y) December 2014
3 .5
Outturn
-0 . 1 -1 . 0
June 2015
3 .0
-2 . 0
2.7
-2 . 5
2 .5
-3 . 0
December 2015
-4 . 6
Outturn
-5 . 0
2 .0
2Q '1 5
3Q '1 5
4Q '1 5
1Q '1 6
2Q '1 6
3Q '1 6
4Q '1 6
1Q '1 7
2Q '1 7
Mexico GDP Growth – Quarterly Forecasts in December 2014 and June and December 2015
% change, y-o-y
4 .0
(% change y-o-y) December 2014 June 2015
Outturn
3 .5
1Q '1 5
2Q '1 5
3.0
3 .0
3 .0
3 .0
December 2015
2Q '1 5
3Q '1 5
4Q '1 5
1Q '1 6
2Q '1 6
3Q '1 6
4Q '1 6
1Q '1 7
2
4Q '1 6
-1 . 0
2Q '1 7
-2 . 7 -2 . 8
-4 . 0
-4 . 2
June 2015
-4 . 3
-6 . 5 -6 . 7
December 2015
-8 . 0 -9 . 0
2Q '1 7
1Q '1 7
(% change y-o-y)
-9 . 1
-1 0 . 0 1Q '1 5
2Q '1 5
NOTES AND ABBREVIATIONS ❒
3Q '1 6
December 2014
-7 . 0
2 .2
1Q '1 5
2Q '1 6
0 .0
-6 . 0
1 .5
1Q '1 6
Venezuela GDP Growth – Quarterly Forecasts in December 2014 and June and December 2015
-5 . 0
2 .3 2 .0
4Q '1 5
-3 . 0
2 .7
2 .5
3Q '1 5
December 2015
% change, y-o-y
-2 . 0
3.2
1 .7
1 .7
1 .5 1Q '1 5
2 .3
2 .3
-5 . 2 -6 . 0
2.7
2 .5
-3 . 3 -4 . 0
2Q '1 7
% change, y-o-y
4 .0
June 2015
-1 . 0
DECEMBER 2015
GDP - Gross Domestic Product; na - not available; OECD - Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development y-o-y - year-on-year q-o-q - quarter-on-quarter
3Q '1 5
-1 0 . 0 4Q '1 5
1Q '1 6
2Q '1 6
3Q '1 6
4Q '1 6
1Q '1 7
2Q '1 7
DECEMBER 2015 IMF - International Monetary Fund m-o-m - month-on-month
❒
Growth rates of GDP, consumption, investment and industrial production are expressed in real (i.e. inflation-adjusted) terms. Unless otherwise noted, these and certain other variables (see Historical Data tables) are expressed as average percentage changes over the previous calendar year.
❒
Measures of consumer prices are December-on-December percentage changes. Most salary measures (unless noted as "real") are average nominal percentage changes over the previous calendar year.
❒
Measures of trade, current account and foreign currency reserves are expressed as nominal amounts in US dollars (billions).
❒
All individual country forecasters on pages 4-25 are listed in descending order of their 2015 real GDP estimates. Consensus forecasts are arithmetic averages of the listed individual estimates. © Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2015
QUARTERLY FORECASTS
DECEMBER 2015
In addition to their regular forecasts, panellists were asked to provide forecasts for individual quarters covering the period through to Q2 2017. Figures in normal type are official published data, while consensus forecasts – based on the arithmetic averages of our panels' forecasts – are shown in bold italics. Unless otherwise noted, all definitions correspond to those used on the individual country pages, and figures represent percentage changes over the same quarter of the previous year. Readers should note that the four quarterly consensus forecasts covering a year may not equate to the annual consensus forecast shown for that same variable on pages 4-25, since the groups of survey respondents may be different, or because of rounding.
Argentina * % change over same quarter of
2014
2015
2016
2017
previous year Gross Dom estic P roduct*
Qtr 3 -0.2
Industrial P roduction (E M I)*
-2.1
Consum er P rices*
na
1
Qtr4 0.5
Qtr 1 2.1
Qtr 2 2.3
Qtr 3 2.7
Qtr4 1.3
Qtr 1 -0.8
Qtr 2 -1.5
Qtr 3 -0.2
Qtr4 1.8
Qtr 1 2.9
Qtr 2 3.5
-1.1
-1.7
0.9
1.9
0.9
0.8
0.5
2.2
3.2
4.5
4.8
1
18.5
15.4
14.7
14.4
19.6
23.3
26.2
28.0
23.9
19.6
na
2.3
1.0
0.2
1.1
0.3
0.2
0.9
2.3
0.7
-0.1
0.4
1.5
Current Account (US $bn)
-0.8
-1.7
-3.7
-2.1
-2.9
-3.1
-3.2
0.1
-1.9
-2.7
-4.5
-0.3
Foreign Currency Reserves (US $bn)
22.4
26.0
26.3
28.6
28.1
23.5
25.8
27.3
27.8
28.0
25.9
27.5
Trade Balance (US $bn)
1
Because of a change in the CPI index in January 2014, and the fact that the government is only releasing m-o-m figures for the new CPI, we are unable to calculate a y-o-y outturn for Q1-Q4 2014 consumer price inflation.
Argentine GDP looks to have undergone a stable, if modest, few quarters of growth this year, averaging 2.4% (yo-y) in Q1-Q3 2015. Unofficially, though, many economists continue to question the veracity of government statistics. Last year’s default and renewed tightening of currency and capital controls triggered recession, and industrial production (both actual data and our panel’s forecasts) illustrates how difficult it has been for activity to extract itself from this latest economic crisis. Tumbling world agricultural prices (soybeans are Argentina’s major export) and neighbouring Brazil’s deepening recession have not helped either the government coffers or forex reserves which have noticeably eroded. The inauguration of a new centre-right government has paved the way for the lifting of exchange controls, which is expected to trigger devaluation and renewed recession in Q1-Q3 2016. Inflation is also likely to soar (due in part to hopefully more accurate statistics).
y-o-y % change
Quarterly Forecasts - Argentina
5.0 Real GDP Growth
4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 -1.0 -2.0
Industrial Production
-3.0 -4.0 Q3 14
Q4
Q1 15
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1 16
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1 17
Q2
Brazil *
% change over same quarter of previous year
2014 Qtr4 Qtr 1 Qtr 2
2016
2017
Qtr 3
Qtr4
Qtr 1
Qtr 2
Qtr 3
Qtr4
Qtr 1
Gross Domestic Product*
-1.1
-0.7
-2.0
-3.0
-4.5
-5.2
-4.6
-3.3
-2.5
-1.0
-0.1
0.6
I nd ustri al P rodu cti on *
-3. 4
-3. 9
-5. 8
-6. 5
-9. 5
-10. 4
-8. 9
-6. 4
-3.9
-1. 3
1. 9
2. 0
6.6
6.5
7.7
8.5
9.5
10.5
8.9
7.9
7.6
6.8
6.5
6.1
Consumer Prices*
Qtr 3
2015
Qtr 2
1.1
-4.1
-5.8
7.0
7.6
5.7
3.3
9.7
9.5
8.2
5.5
8.8
Current Account (US$bn)
-24.7
-30.0
-25.1
-12.8
-11.4
-16.5
-14.5
-9.6
-9.3
-9.2
-8.8
-5.9
Foreign Currency Reserves (US$bn)
366.2 354.8 354.7 360.6
353.6
368.1
368.0
367.6
367.7
367.7 362.5
362.1
Trade Balance (US$bn)
Brazil’s economy plunged deeper into recession in Q3 after output shrank by -4.5% (y-o-y), and the recession looks set to become even more severe judging by our panellists’ prediction for Q4 (-5.2%). The country’s political woes are exacerbating the economic crisis and the consensus is now predicting that Brazil will not return to positive growth until Q2 2017 at the earliest. Besides a severe downturn in economic activity, the political gridlock in Congress is holding back the passage of fiscal reforms. Moreover, a huge corruption scandal at Petrobas, the state-run oil company, has complicated matters, ensnaring many top lawmakers. President Dilma Rousseff is now battling impeachment proceedings. Against this political backdrop, investment has dropped, sentiment remains weak and inflation has continued to soar in spite of high interest rates. continued on page 30 © Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2015
Quarterly Forecasts - Brazil
y-o-y % change
Cons umer Pric e Inflation (% y -o-y )
11.0 10.0 9.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 -1.0 -2.0 -3.0 -4.0 -5.0 -6.0
R eal G D P G ro w th
Q3 14
Q4
Q1 15
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1 16
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1 17
Q2
3
ARGENTINA - 1
DECEMBER 2015 Average
% Change, Dec-on-Dec
% Change on Previous Calendar Year
Annual Total
Gross Domestic Product
Final Consumption
Gross Fixed Investment
Industrial Production (EMI)
Consumer Nominal Average Non-financial Prices Wages per Public Sector (National Industrial Worker Budget Balance, Urban Index) (INDEC) (% of GDP)
Producto Bruto Interno
Consumo Final
Inversión Bruta Fija
Producción Industrial (EMI)
Salarios Medios Balanza de Precios al Consumidor Nominales por Presupuesto del Obrero Sector Público (Indice Industrial No Financiero, Naciónal (INDEC) (% de PBI) Urbano) 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016
2015 2.3 EXANTE 2.0 Citigroup 2.0 JP Morgan Chase 1.7 Morgan Stanley 1.6 IHS Economics 1.5 Estudio Bein & Asoc 1.4 BBVA Banco Frances 1.3 Oxford Economics 1.2 BofA - Merrill Lynch 1.2 Ecolatina Orlando Ferreres & Asoc 1.0 1.0 Banco Galicia 1.0 Elypsis 1.0 FIEL 1.0 Fundacion Capital 1.0 HSBC 1.0 XP Securities 1.0 ACM 0.9 Econometrica 0.5 Abeceb.com 0.5 ALPHA 0.5 Capital Economics 0.5 Econviews 0.5 Overdata -1.0 Espert & Asociados
2016
2015
2016
2015
2016
0.1 -1.7 0.6 -1.4 1.0 -2.4 1.4 0.8 0.7 -1.4 -0.5 0.7 0.0 0.2 na -0.2 3.0 -1.2 -1.7 -0.3 -0.5 -1.5 1.0 na na
1.9 2.7 1.6 1.1 -0.1 2.0 1.7 0.8 2.4 1.3 -0.1 0.7 na na 0.6 1.5 2.5 0.6 na 0.7 0.2 na 1.0 0.0 1.0
0.7 -1.9 -0.5 -1.7 1.0 -4.5 1.6 0.5 -1.1 -1.6 -1.1 0.6 na na na 0.3 3.5 -3.7 na -0.4 -0.6 na 1.0 na na
-0.5 0.1 0.6 2.1 4.4 -1.0 0.5 4.1 -4.0 1.4 3.5 1.4 na na 3.5 -0.6 1.0 3.5 na -4.3 -2.0 na -2.5 -1.0 -8.0
0.2 -2.2 1.0 0.4 0.9 7.0 2.5 -0.2 4.0 -4.2 -0.2 3.5 na na na 2.9 6.0 11.0 na 4.4 4.0 na 10.5 na na
na na -1.0 na 0.2 0.2 0.6 -0.4 na -0.6 0.4 0.0 na na na 0.8 0.0 -0.8 -0.1 -0.6 -2.0 na 0.5 -1.0 na
na na 3.2 na 0.1 -2.5 1.3 1.1 na -0.8 -0.4 1.4 na na na 3.0 4.0 2.4 -0.9 0.3 1.0 na 0.5 na na
13.5 13.5 15.0 16.9 20.9 16.5 14.3 na 17.2 na na 15.0 na na na na 22.0 15.5 27.0 na 15.0 35.0 na na 28.0
36.1 34.7 25.0 39.2 30.4 38.0 17.1 na 33.1 na na 25.0 33.0 na na na 20.0 36.2 36.0 na 33.0 40.0 na na na
na 29.6 na na na 30.0 na 31.0 32.0 31.0 29.5 30.1 28.0 na na 26.1 28.0 29.5 28.0 na 29.0 na 28.0 30.0 33.0
na 29.5 na na na 28.0 na 30.4 28.0 34.0 39.9 28.5 32.0 na na 30.0 20.0 29.0 29.0 na 30.0 na 33.0 na na
-6.0 -5.1 -6.0 -6.1 na -4.8 -5.5 -3.9 -5.2 -4.9 -6.4 -5.5 -4.0 -5.2 -6.3 -4.7 -5.5 -3.9 -4.7 -5.1 -5.0 -6.5 -5.1 -7.0 -7.8
-5.5 -4.9 -5.5 -3.6 na -5.9 -5.0 -4.0 -3.6 -5.7 -3.6 -5.0 -3.5 na na -6.5 -4.5 -2.3 -4.0 -3.8 -3.5 -4.5 -4.9 na na
Consensus (Mean)
1.1
-0.2
1.1
-0.4
0.1
2.9
-0.2
0.9
19.0
31.8
29.5
30.1
-5.4
-4.5
Last Month's Mean 3 Months Ago High Low Standard Deviation
1.0 0.7 2.3 -1.0 0.7
0.4 0.9 3.0 -2.4 1.3
1.1 0.9 2.7 -0.1 0.8
0.2 0.6 3.5 -4.5 1.9
-0.2 -1.0 4.4 -8.0 3.1
3.6 3.1 11.0 -4.2 4.0
-0.3 -0.5 0.8 -2.0 0.7
1.3 1.7 4.0 -2.5 1.7
17.0 16.5 35.0 13.5 6.4
26.7 26.0 40.0 17.1 7.0
30.3 29.9 33.0 26.1 1.7
30.3 28.1 39.9 20.0 4.3
-5.4 -5.3 -3.9 -7.8 1.0
-4.3 -4.1 -2.3 -6.5 1.0
0.4 1.6
-0.7 1.6
19.3
26.4
-4.9
-4.8
Economic Forecasters
Comparison Forecasts IMF (Oct. '15) ECLAC (Nov. '15)
2016
2015
Government President - Mr. Mauricio Macri [Propuesta Republicana (PRO) Party]. The president was elected for a four-year term ending in December 2019.
Historical Data 2011 2012 2013 2014 8.4
0.8
2.9
Final Consumption*
10.1
4.5
4.3 -0.1
Gross Fixed Investment*
19.4 -7.0
3.1 -5.5
6.5 -7.8
0.0 -1.8
Gross Domestic Product*
Government - Half of the Chamber of Deputies (lower house) is directly elected every two years, with members serving four-year terms. One-third of the Senate (upper house) is elected by provincial legislatures every two years, with members serving six-year terms.
Industrial Production, EMI*
Next Elections - October 2017 (legislative).
* average % change on previous year
Background Data (see page 7)
0.5
Consumer Prices, Buenos Aires (Dec/Dec)
9.5 10.8 10.9 23.9
Nominal Average Wages Per Industrial Worker, INDEC*
30.9 29.0 27.0 29.5
Non-financial Public Sector Budget
Balance, including privatisation proceeds (% of GDP)
4
Average Annual % change
-1.3 -2.0 -1.9 -2.5
© Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2015
ARGENTINA - 2
DECEMBER 2015
Election of Macri Brings Hope of Policy Rebalancing Economic news has been largely overshadowed by the inauguration of new centre-right president Mauricio Macri. This signals an end to 12 years of Kirchner-Fernández leadership and a likely ‘inflection point’ in economic policy according to observers. The new administration faces some pressing challenges. While officially at 15.3% (y-o-y) in November, true inflation is likely above 25% (see box below). On top of this, currency and capital controls have asphyxiated activity and eroded central bank foreign reserves to dangerously low levels. First order of business will be to rebuild reserves in a bid to support the peso. Mr. Macri removed strict exchange controls late on December 16 (after our survey deadline) which in turn will put strong downward pressure on the currency. The government will also have to wrestle with rebalancing the monetary and fiscal environment. Some economists suggest that fiscal consolidation will take time. Observers are hopeful that statistics will become more trustworthy (currently, inflation and the fiscal accounts are being under-reported while GDP and production likely over-reported). Meanwhile, farmers finally got their wish of export tariffs on their agricultural output being eliminated. This, coupled with the lifting of forex restrictions, will probably prompt farmers to sell the grain stock they have been hoarding in anticipation of a better exchange rate. Our panel’s forecasts, however, underscore the near-term pain that the unwinding of some of these macro imbalances will entail. The 2016 GDP forecast has dropped into recession while inflation has soared on the back of an expected peso devaluation.
Real GDP Growth and Inflation
%
36
Inflation 2002 = 40.9%
Forecast
32 28
Consumer Prices (% Change, Dec/Dec)
24 20 16 12 8 4 0 -4
GDP Growth (% Change yoy)
-8 -12
'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16
%, Dec/ Dec
GDP Growth and Inflation Forecasts %
Consensus Forecasts from Survey of:
34.0
2.5
2016 GDP Growth (% Change yoy) – right scale
32.0
2.0
30.0
1.5
28.0
1.0
26.0
0.5
24.0
2016 Consumer Prices (% Change, Dec/Dec) – left scale
Despite September’s official economic activity indicator at +2.8% (y-o-y), production contracted by -2.6% (y-o-y) in October. Moreover, auto output has been steadily declining, by -16.6% in November, with exports falling sharply, mainly on the back of Brazil’s deepening recession. Q: What is the “True” Rate of Argentine Inflation?
0.0
22.0
Year-on-year inflation for November 2015: Consensus estimated true rate: 26.7% (y-o-y) December/December inflation: Consensus forecast true rate (end-2015): 27.4% (y-o-y) Consensus forecast true rate (end-2016): 34.1% (y-o-y)
-0.5 2015 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jan
Jul
Aug Sep Oct
Nov Dec
Monthly Inflation Forecasts * Consumer prices, Buenos Aires Index, not seasonally adjusted -- up to December 2013 ** Consumer prices, National Urban Index, not seasonally adjusted -- From January 2014 onwards Consensus forecasts % change on shown in bold italics previous month ** 2015
2016
J une J u ly A ug Sep Oct N ov D ec Jan Fe b M ar A pr M ay
1 .0 1 .3 1 .2 1 .2 1 .1 2 .0 3 .2 5 .8 4 .4 3 .4 2 .4 2 .3
D e c e m be r 2 0 1 5 D e c e m be r 2 0 1 6
7.5 7.0
% change on same month in previous year 1 5 .0 1 4 .8 1 4 .7 1 4 .4 1 4 .3 1 5 .3 1 7 .8 2 3 .2 2 7 .4 3 0 .1 3 1 .7 3 3 .3
6.5 6.0 5.5 5.0
1 9 .0 3 1 .8
Readers should note that the December y-o-y figure for the current year may not equate to the Dec/Dec consensus forecast shown on the main table, since the number of survey respondents may be different, or because of rounding. © Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2015
4.5
% 4.0 3.5 3.0
The introduction of a new “National urban” CPI index in January 2014 came without any historical data. Only the m-o-m inflation rate is available between January to December 2014. We illustrate the break between the old (historical) and new (forecast) m-o-m series on the chart here.
Forecast
New Series
2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0
Old
0.5 Series 0.0 Jan 10 Jul 10 Jan 11 Jul 11 Jan 12 Jul 12 Jan 13 Jul 13 Jan 14 Jul 14 Jan 15 Jul 15 Jan 16
----- Consensus plus 1 Standard Deviation Actual and Consensus ----- Consensus minus 1 Standard Deviation 5
ARGENTINA - 3
DECEMBER 2015 Rate on Survey Date: 23.8%
Annual Total Merchandise Trade Balance (fob-cif US$bn) ImportaExportaBalanza ciones de ciones de Comercial Mercancías Mercancías (fab-cif, (fab, US$bn) (cif, US$bn) US$bn) Merchandise Merchandise Exports Imports (fob, US$bn) (cif, US$bn)
Current Account Balance (US$bn)
30-Day Peso Certificates of Deposit (%)
Saldo en Cuenta Corriente (US$bn)
Certificados de Depósitos en Pesos a 30 días (%)
Economic Forecasters
2015
End End 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 Mar ’16 Dec ’16
EXANTE Citigroup JP Morgan Chase Morgan Stanley IHS Economics Estudio Bein & Asoc BBVA Banco Frances Oxford Economics BofA - Merrill Lynch Ecolatina Orlando Ferreres & Asoc Banco Galicia Elypsis FIEL Fundacion Capital HSBC XP Securities ACM Econometrica Abeceb.com ALPHA Capital Economics Econviews Overdata Espert & Asociados
60.7 57.9 59.5 60.0 61.6 57.3 60.2 62.4 61.5 57.1 62.1 62.0 62.1 60.9 62.3 57.2 63.0 61.5 60.5 61.0 62.5 na 60.5 61.0 58.0
61.0 61.0 60.6 62.0 59.3 63.0 59.5 65.0 59.5 61.2 68.4 63.1 na 56.3 na 57.1 69.0 70.4 61.6 63.0 72.0 na 65.4 na na
59.1 54.3 55.7 57.9 56.4 60.4 58.3 59.8 58.0 59.4 60.9 59.5 60.6 59.2 60.0 57.3 59.0 59.8 59.1 59.1 59.0 na 53.5 59.5 56.0
58.7 53.8 54.0 55.0 53.7 56.0 59.0 60.7 52.2 57.9 61.4 60.7 na 56.8 na 61.0 59.0 64.8 53.6 58.7 68.0 na 62.2 na na
1.6 3.6 3.8 2.1 5.2 -3.1 1.9 2.6 3.5 -2.3 1.2 2.5 1.5 1.7 2.3 0.0 4.0 1.7 1.4 1.9 3.5 na 7.0 1.5 2.0
Consensus (Mean)
60.5
62.9
58.4
58.4
2.1
Last Month's Mean 3 Months Ago High Low Standard Deviation
60.6 61.4 63.0 57.1 1.8
63.6 63.7 72.0 56.3 4.3
58.3 58.7 60.9 53.5 2.0
60.0 61.3 68.0 52.2 4.1
2.3 2.8 7.0 -3.1 2.1
2.3 7.2 6.6 7.0 5.5 6.9 0.5 4.3 7.3 3.3 7.1 2.4 na -0.5 na -4.0 10.0 5.5 8.0 4.3 4.0 na 3.2 na na
-11.5 -12.2 -10.2 -12.7 -9.4 -13.7 -11.1 -12.1 -11.6 -15.9 -14.2 -10.1 na -12.3 -12.4 -16.1 -10.0 -10.8 -12.0 -11.6 na na -12.1 -10.0 -10.0
-11.1 -8.0 -6.6 -2.9 -8.0 -3.3 -11.9 -6.2 -6.2 -10.6 -6.3 -6.7 na na na -18.5 -8.0 -5.8 -3.4 -7.0 na na -16.0 na na
na na na 45.0 na 31.4 35.0 22.6 na 31.0 34.2 34.5 45.0 34.0 na 25.0 na 29.4 36.0 34.7 33.0 na 35.0 26.0 na
na na na 35.0 na 30.9 28.0 22.0 na 25.0 30.3 23.0 25.0 33.5 na 34.0 na 24.3 34.0 30.9 22.0 na 32.2 na na
4.6 -11.9
-8.1
33.2
28.7
3.6 -11.7 -10.3 2.4 -11.1 -10.3 10.0 -9.4 -2.9 -4.0 -16.1 -18.5 3.3 1.8 4.2
Comparison Forecasts IMF (Oct. '15) ECLAC (Nov. '15)
Historical Trade Data
35.0 22.0 4.7
Major Export Markets (% of Total)
2014 20.4 6.9 5.6 3.8 2.6
Brazil China USA Chile Netherlands
Major Import Suppliers (% of Total)
2014 23.4 17.8 12.6 5.1 2.2
Brazil USA China Germany Italy Major Exports (% of Total)
Agro-Industrial Products Manufactures Primary Products Fuel and Energy
2014 39.1 33.6 20.8 6.5
Major Imports (% of Total)
Intermediate Goods Capital Goods Parts Fuel and Energy Consumer Goods Passenger Vehicles
2014 28.7 19.3 19.1 16.7 10.2 5.5
Interest Rate Forecasts
(US$ billion) Merchandise Exports, fob Merchandise Imports, cif (-) Trade Balance, fob-cif
45.0 22.6 6.1
Trade Structure
2011 84.1 74.3 9.7
2012 2013 2014 80.2 81.7 72.0 68.0 73.7 65.3 12.2 8.0 6.7
15.6 17.9
15.2 18.3
% 35
Rate on 30-day Peso Certificates of Deposit, annualised, %, end period Forecast
30
Services Exports Services Imports (-) Interest, Profits and Dividends (net) Transfers (net)
6
14.8 18.6
14.0 17.2
-13.8 -12.9 -11.0 -12.0 -0.5 -0.5 -0.9 -0.2
-1.3
-4.5
25 20
Current Account Balance
-3.7
-5.9
15
30-Day Peso Certificates of Deposit (%), end year
13.3 12.4 17.8 19.6
10
Foreign Currency Reserves, excl. Gold & SDRs, end year
40.1 36.8 25.0 26.0
5 Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul 10 10 11 11 12 12 13 13 14 14 15 15 16 16
© Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2015
ARGENTINA - 4
DECEMBER 2015
Background Data 2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
New GDP base starting 183.3 from 2004 535.8
222.9
264.7
331.9
408.3
380.5
464.8
562.5
609.6
623.9
545.7
647.3
808.6 1027.3 1283.9 1411.5
1810.8
2312.0
2765.6 3406.3
4425.7
20.8
24.9
27.1
25.0
9.9
28.3
27.7
19.6
23.2
29.9
4785
5767
6790
8438 10291
9507
11512
13811
14835
15053
13056
38.0
38.3
38.7
39.0
39.3
39.7
40.0
40.4
40.7
41.1
41.5
41.8
End-year
2.905
2.959
3.012
3.042
3.129
3.433
3.780
3.956
4.284
4.898
6.501
8.465
Average
2.901
2.923
2.904
3.054
3.096
3.144
3.710
3.896
4.110
4.537
5.459
8.110
Nominal GDP US$bn Pesos bn Peso - % Change GDP per Head (US$) Population (millions) Peso per US$
Sentiment Indicators
13700 12900 Stock Market - Argentine Mercado de Valores 12100 MERCAL index 11300 10500 price-weighted in Argentine pesos 9700 8900 8100 7300 6500 5700 4900 4100 3300 2500 1700 900 100 Dec-01 Dec-02 Dec -03 Dec -04 Dec -05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec -08 Dec -09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec -12 Dec -13 Dec -14 Dec-15 Dec-16
Argentine Exports of Primary Products (FOB, by month) US$ mn
2500 2250 2000 1750 1500
1250 1000 750 500 250 0 Dec-01 Dec-02 Dec-03 Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16
Merchandise Trade US$ Billion
Forecast
90 80
Exports
70 60
Imports
50 40 30 20 10 0 -10
Trade Balance
'92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 © Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2015
US$ Billion
50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15
Foreign Currency Reserves and Current Account Balance Foreign Currency Reserves (US$bn) Consensus Forecasts for: End-2015 23.0 End-2016 28.8
Forecast
Current Account Balance
'92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 7
BRAZIL - 1
DECEMBER 2015 Average % Change on Previous Calendar Year
Economic Forecasters
Gross Domestic Product
Household Consumption
Gross Fixed Investment
Industrial Production (IBGE)
Produto Interno Bruto
Consumo das Famílias
Formação Bruta de Capital Fixo
Produção Industrial (IBGE)
2015
2016
2015
2016
2015
% Change, Average Annual Annual Total Dec-on-Dec % change Nominal Consumer Nominal Average Income Public Sector Prices (Private Sector), IPCA Borrowing Monthly Requirement, (IBGE) Employment Survey (PME) inc. privatization (% of GDP) (IBGE) Necessidades de Rendimento Preços ao Médio Nominal Financiamento Consumidor (Setor Privado), Nominal do Setor IPCA Publico (PME) (IBGE) (IBGE) (% do PIB)
2016
2015
2016
2015
2016
2015
2016
2015
2016
Oxford Economics BBVA Timetric BofA - Merrill Lynch Datalynk SILCON/C.R. Contador Grupo Bursatil Mex Capital Economics LCA Consultores Banco Bradesco HSBC IHS Economics Citigroup ING MCM Consultores Rosenberg Consultoria Itau BBA JP Morgan Barclays Tendencias Eaton
-2.4 -2.5 -2.7 -3.3 -3.3 -3.3 -3.4 -3.5 -3.5 -3.6 -3.6 -3.6 -3.6 -3.7 -3.7 -3.7 -3.7 -3.8 -3.8 -3.8 -3.9
-0.3 -0.5 -0.9 -3.5 -1.5 -1.6 -2.4 0.0 -2.0 -2.8 -2.8 -2.6 -2.4 -2.5 -2.8 -3.0 -2.8 -3.7 -2.8 -3.0 -2.9
-3.5 -3.0 -2.8 -3.4 -3.0 -3.5 -3.5 -2.0 -3.8 -3.8 -3.8 -4.1 -4.1 -3.7 -3.2 -3.7 -4.0 -3.7 -4.0 -4.0 -4.5
-1.8 -1.4 -1.5 -4.7 -1.5 -2.6 -4.3 -0.5 -3.2 -3.0 -3.5 -2.8 -3.5 -3.5 -1.6 -2.9 -3.8 -4.0 -3.4 -2.6 -3.4
-12.0 -11.6 -10.8 -9.4 -12.0 -11.5 -13.3 -10.0 -12.9 -14.5 -13.7 -13.6 -13.6 -14.0 -15.3 -13.4 -13.7 -15.5 -13.5 -14.5 -14.6
-5.8 -4.2 -3.2 -7.6 -3.0 -6.0 -10.6 1.5 -5.4 -10.0 -11.0 -8.4 -9.2 -10.0 -13.1 -4.8 -8.0 -10.0 -7.4 -9.0 -7.9
-7.8 na -6.3 na -6.0 -6.8 -8.5 na -8.1 -7.5 -7.8 -8.3 -7.3 -7.0 -8.5 -7.5 -7.9 -7.4 -7.7 -8.0 -8.2
-3.5 na -0.9 na 1.0 -2.0 -7.6 na -2.8 -3.0 -5.0 -4.1 -1.0 -1.5 -8.1 -3.5 -4.4 -2.4 -3.6 -3.0 -5.8
na 10.5 9.1 10.7 10.0 10.0 10.4 10.2 10.6 10.6 10.3 10.2 10.6 10.2 10.7 10.8 10.5 10.7 10.7 10.6 9.8
na 5.5 6.0 6.4 6.5 6.8 7.1 7.0 6.7 6.4 6.0 5.9 6.8 6.6 7.4 8.0 6.8 6.5 6.5 6.5 7.0
6.3 na na 7.8 8.5 6.7 na na 5.6 na 6.5 na 8.0 na 7.7 na na na na na na
6.4 na na 4.0 8.5 6.0 na na 6.0 na 3.0 na 4.3 na 4.3 na na na na na na
10.5 9.0 7.6 11.1 10.0 8.7 na 9.0 9.4 10.0 10.4 9.0 na 9.6 9.8 10.6 9.9 9.6 9.7 9.5 na
7.8 7.6 6.5 8.8 8.0 7.7 na 6.5 6.8 8.0 7.3 8.7 na 7.6 9.6 7.3 8.8 6.9 8.6 7.6 na
Consensus (Mean)
-3.5
-2.2
-3.6
-2.8
-13.0
-7.3
-7.6
-3.4
10.4
6.6
7.1
5.3
9.6
7.8
Last Month's Mean 3 Months Ago High Low Standard Deviation
-3.0 -2.6 -2.4 -3.9 0.4
-1.6 -0.6 0.0 -3.7 1.0
-3.3 -2.8 -2.0 -4.5 0.5
-2.4 -1.2 -0.5 -4.7 1.1
-12.0 -10.6 -9.4 -15.5 1.7
-5.7 -2.6 1.5 -13.1 3.4
-7.2 -6.2 -6.0 -8.5 0.7
-2.3 -0.6 1.0 -8.1 2.3
9.9 9.3 10.8 9.1 0.4
6.4 5.8 8.0 5.5 0.6
6.8 7.5 8.5 5.6 1.0
5.4 6.7 8.5 3.0 1.8
8.8 7.4 11.1 7.6 0.8
7.4 6.6 9.6 6.5 0.9
Comparison Forecasts Corp Andina de Fomento (Dec. '15) IMF (Oct. '15) OECD (Jun. '15) ECLAC (Nov. '15)
-3.3 -3.0 -0.8 -2.8
-1.9 -1.0 1.1 -1.0
10.5 9.3
7.0 5.5
9.5
7.9
Government
Historical Data 2011 2012 2013 2014
President - Ms. Dilma Rousseff (PT). The president was reelected for a second four-year term in October 2014. Government - Senators (upper house) are elected for eightyear terms; the Chamber of Deputies (lower house) is elected every four years. Next Elections - Presidential 2018. Senate - Two-thirds will be elected in 2018. Chamber of Deputies - 2018.
Gross Domestic Product*
3.9
1.8
2.7
0.1
Household Consumption*
4.1
3.2
2.6
0.9
Gross Fixed Investment*
4.7
-4.0
5.2
-4.4
Industrial Production, IBGE*
0.4
-2.3
2.1
-3.1
6.5
5.8
5.9
6.4
9.7
9.8
8.1
8.9
3.3
6.7
Consumer Prices, IPCA, IBGE Index (Dec/Dec) Nominal Average Income, (Private Sector), (IBGE)* * average % change on previous year
Background Data (see page 11)
Operational Public Sector Borrowing Requirement, including privatisation proceeds (% of GDP, - = budget surplus)
8
2.6
2.5
© Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2015
BRAZIL - 2
DECEMBER 2015
Brazil Plunges Deeper into Recession Latin America’s largest economy plunged deeper into recession in the third quarter after economic output shrank by a hefty -4.5% (y-o-y), up from -3.0% in the prior three months. The latest GDP figure represents a contraction in growth for the sixth straight quarter in a row, with many observers now believing that the country is experiencing its worst crisis since the Great Depression. A breakdown of the Q3 GDP report revealed a broad-based contraction across all the major sectors, while household consumption (-4.5%) and gross fixed investment (-15.0%) continued to contract. The recession predicted for this year and next is now expected to be much deeper at -3.5% and -2.2%, respectively. Against a backdrop of weak global commodity prices and a waning consumer credit boom, growth in what was once one of the world’s fastest-growing countries has tanked in recent years. Furthermore, the economic downturn is being exacerbated by a political crisis fuelled by a corruption scandal at state-run oil company, Petrobas. Cutbacks in investment by Petrobas, which accounts for a huge chunk of total investment in the economy, along with curbs in government spending to shrink a growing budget gap, have undermined the country’s recovery prospects. Both business and consumer confidence have plummeted, and consumers paring back spending have contributed to heavy layoffs, resulting in the unemployment rate rising to 7.9% in October. President Dilma Rousseff is struggling to convince lawmakers to back austerity measures needed to shore up fast-deteriorating fiscal accounts after the nominal PSBR hit 9.5% of GDP in October. The current political and economic woes have seen the president’s popularity rating plummet, and following months of speculation impeachment proceedings were finally launched against Ms. Rousseff on the grounds of ‘fiscal mismanagement’ earlier this month, although the process has now been delayed until mid-December.
Real GDP Growth and Inflation % Forecast
13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -4
Consumer Prices (% Change, Dec/Dec)
GDP Growth (% Change yoy) '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16
GDP Growth and Inflation Forecasts %
Consensus Forecasts from Survey of:
2015 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 7.0 6.0
2016 Consumer Prices (% Change, Dec/Dec)
5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0
On the inflation front, consumer prices entered double-digit territory in November to come in at 10.48% (y-o-y), a 12-year high, and rose by 1.0% over October. The increase was led by a rise in fuel prices, as well as higher costs for food and beverages. Inflation now looks set to end this year at 10.4%, followed by 6.6% in December 2016.
2016 GDP Growth (% Change yoy)
-1.0 -2.0 -3.0
Monthly Inflation Forecasts Consensus forecasts shown in bold italics
2015
2016
% change on previous month
June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May
0.8 0.6 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.4
December 2015 December 2016
IPCA (IBGE) Index, not seasonally adjusted % change on 1.4 same month in 1.3 previous year
8.9 9.6 9.5 9.5 9.9 10.5 10.5 10.0 9.5 8.6 8.5 8.2
1.2 1.1 1.0
%
10.4 6.6
The December y-o-y figure for the current year may not equate to the Dec/ Dec consensus forecast shown on the main table, since the number of survey respondents may be different, or because of rounding. © Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2015
Forecast
0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 Jan 10 Jul 10 Jan 11 Jul 11 Jan 12 Jul 12 Jan 13 Jul 13 Jan 14 Jul 14 Jan 15 Jul 15 Jan 16
----- Consensus plus 1 Standard Deviation Actual and Consensus ----- Consensus minus 1 Standard Deviation 9
BRAZIL - 3
DECEMBER 2015 Rate on Survey Date: 14.3%
Annual Total Merchandise Merchandise Merchandise Exports Imports Trade (fob, US$bn) (fob, US$bn) Balance (fob-fob, US$bn) Exportação Importação Saldo de de Comercial Mercadorias Mercadorias (US$bn) (US$bn) (US$bn)
Saldo em Conta Corrente (US$bn)
Overnight Interbank Interest Rate, SELIC (%) Taxa de juros (overnight), SELIC (%) End End Mar’16 Dec’16
Economic Forecasters
2015
Oxford Economics BBVA Timetric BofA - Merrill Lynch Datalynk SILCON/C.R. Contador Grupo Bursatil Mex Capital Economics LCA Consultores Banco Bradesco HSBC IHS Economics Citigroup ING MCM Consultores Rosenberg Consultoria Itau BBA JP Morgan Barclays Tendencias Eaton
185.7 210.0 192.3 192.3 200.0 194.0 188.2 na 184.4 188.7 188.9 188.1 195.1 192.1 189.4 187.3 189.0 191.1 192.9 191.8 237.6
153.6 193.0 171.9 157.3 185.0 170.0 150.2 na 136.7 153.9 160.8 154.4 174.8 159.5 165.0 173.2 143.1 176.4 176.3 165.6 190.1
10.8 15.0 11.4 15.5 10.0 16.0 14.6 na 13.2 16.8 14.9 14.2 15.1 13.5 16.2 14.6 13.5 12.6 12.9 14.5 35.0
20.0 28.0 28.2 37.9 25.0 29.0 24.9 na 38.8 46.9 28.2 20.0 28.5 38.4 30.0 19.7 31.0 19.8 26.3 31.4 51.8
-66.9 -66.0 -68.8 -62.1 -65.0 -63.0 -72.8 na -65.8 -58.4 -63.7 -65.0 -66.4 -65.9 -63.8 -60.0 -66.5 -63.4 -64.1 -64.2 na
-48.0 -41.0 -50.4 -29.3 -45.0 -46.0 -64.0 na -39.3 -14.9 -43.6 -51.0 -51.8 -33.8 -40.7 -50.1 -35.0 -29.0 -45.2 -44.1 na
na 14.3 na 14.3 14.3 14.5 14.8 14.3 15.3 14.3 15.3 14.3 na 15.3 14.3 14.8 14.3 na 14.3 15.3 15.0
na 11.5 na 12.8 12.5 14.3 14.8 13.3 15.8 13.0 14.8 14.3 na 15.3 14.3 16.0 14.3 na 13.0 14.8 15.8
Consensus (Mean)
193.9 195.7 178.9 165.5
15.0
30.2
-64.8 -42.2
14.6
14.1
Last Month's Mean 3 Months Ago High Low Standard Deviation
194.4 197.3 237.6 184.4 11.7
13.7 11.2 35.0 10.0 5.0
27.9 21.3 51.8 19.7 8.8
-65.6 -71.5 -58.4 -72.8 3.1
1.6
2.5
2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016
173.6 221.0 200.1 195.2 210.0 199.0 175.1 na 175.4 200.9 189.0 174.3 203.4 197.9 195.0 192.9 174.1 196.2 202.6 197.0 241.9
198.3 204.6 241.9 173.6 16.9
174.9 195.0 180.9 176.8 190.0 178.0 173.5 na 171.2 171.9 174.0 173.8 180.0 178.6 173.2 172.7 175.5 178.5 180.0 177.3 202.6
180.7 186.1 202.6 171.2 8.1
170.4 183.3 193.0 136.7 15.0
Comparison Forecasts Corp Andina de 212.0 220.5 183.6 176.4 Fomento (Dec. '15) IMF (Oct. '15) OECD (Jun. '15) ECLAC (Nov. '15)
Historical Trade Data (US$ billion) Merchandise Exports, fob Merchandise Imports, fob (-) Trade Balance, fob-fob
2011 255.4 227.9 27.6
2012 2013 2014 242.1 241.5 224.1 224.9 241.2 230.6 17.3 0.3 -6.5
Services Exports Services Imports (-) Interest, Profits and Dividends (net) Transfers (net)
-70.5 -54.3 -32.5 -52.2 3.0 2.8 3.7 2.7
Current Account Balance
-77.0 -74.1 -74.8 -104.1
Overnight Interbank Interest Rate, SELIC (%), end year Foreign Currency Reserves, excl. Gold & SDRs, end year 10
Current Account Balance (US$bn)
37.1 39.1 38.2 74.1 79.0 84.4
40.0 88.1
-45.8 -58.8 -14.9 -64.0 10.7
-71.7 -44.8 -72.8 -63.2 -69.6 -63.4
Trade Structure Major Export Markets (% of Total)
2014 18.0 12.1 6.3 5.8 2.9
China USA Argentina Netherlands Germany
Major Import Suppliers (% of Total)
2014 16.3 15.4 6.2 6.0 2.6
China USA Argentina Germany Japan Major Exports (% of Total)
Primary Products Manufactured Products Semimanufactured Prod.
2014 48.7 38.4 12.9
Major Imports (% of Total)
2014 15.3 14.3 0.4
16.0 11.5 1.3
15.3
15.3
Intermediate Products and Raw Materials Capital Goods Fuels and Lubricants Consumer Goods
44.9 20.8 17.3 16.9
Likelihood of an Interest Rate Change The panel's estimated average probability of a change in Banco Central do Brazil’s SELIC Rate Target (currently 14.25%) between the survey date and January 21, 2016 % probability of: was: INCREASE NO CHANGE DECREASE 50.8 + 48.8 + 0.4 = 100% Most likely rate change mentioned was: +0.50% % 16
Interest Rate Forecasts Overnight Interest Rate, SELIC, annualized, %, end period
Forecast
14 12 10
11.0
7.3 10.0
11.8
343.4 362.1 349.0 354.8
8 6 Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul 10 10 11 11 12 12 13 13 14 14 15 15 16 16
© Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2015
BRAZIL - 4
DECEMBER 2015
Background Data 2003
2004
558.9
669.6
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
892.1 1107.8 1395.9 1694.6 1664.6
2209.4
2615.2
2413.6
2393.1
2349.3
1720.1 1958.7 2171.7 2409.8 2718.0 3107.5 3328.2
Nominal GDP US$bn Reals bn Real - % Change
15.0
13.9
10.9
11.0
12.8
14.3
3886.8
4374.8
4713.1
5157.6
5521.3
7.1
16.8
12.6
7.7
9.4
7.1
GDP per Head (US$)
3075
3639
4793
5888
7347
8837
8603
11318
13279
12150
11944
11629
Population (millions)
181.8
184.0
186.1
188.1
190.0
191.8
193.5
195.2
196.9
198.7
200.4
202.0
End-year
2.888
2.654
2.340
2.137
1.771
2.336
1.740
1.686
1.859
2.043
2.354
2.658
Average
3.078
2.925
2.434
2.175
1.947
1.834
1.999
1.759
1.673
1.953
2.155
2.350
Real per US$
Sentiment Indicators
80000 70000 60000 50000 40000 30000
Stock Market - Brazil Bolsa de Valores, Mercadorias & Futuros de São Paulo BOVESPA Index in Reals (total return)
20000 10000
0 Dec-01 Dec-02 Dec-03 Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 180
160 140
Price of Brazilian Exit Bonds, C Bonds and New Bonds on Secondary Debt Market, % of Par Value
120 100
C Bond 8.0% Bond due 15/01/2018 ----- 12.75% Bond due 01/2020 8.0% Bond due 15/05/2027
80 60 40
20 Dec -01 D ec -02 D ec -03 Dec -04 Dec -05 D ec -06 D ec -07 Dec -08 D ec -09 D ec -10 D ec -11 Dec -12 D ec -13 Dec -14 D ec -15 Dec -16
Merchandise Trade US$ Billion
US$ Billion
Forecast
300 Exports
250 200 150 100
Imports
50 0 -50
Trade Balance
'92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 © Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2015
400 360 320 280 240 200 160 120 80 40 0 -40 -80 -120
Foreign Currency Reserves and Current Account Balance Forecast
Foreign Currency Reserves (US$bn) Consensus Forecasts for: End-2015 364.5 End-2016 365.3
Current Account Balance
'92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 11
CHILE - 1
DECEMBER 2015 % Change, Dec-on-Dec
Average % Change on Previous Calendar Year
Annual Average Annual Total % change General Government Budget Balance, accrual basis (% of GDP)
Gross Domestic Product
Private Consumption
Gross Fixed Investment
Manufacturing Production (INE, General Index)
Consumer Prices (INE, General Index)
Producto Geográfico Bruto
Consumo Privado
Formación Bruta de Capital Fijo
Producción Manufacturera (INE, Indice General)
Economic Forecasters
2015
2016
2015
2016
2015
2016
2015
2016
Indice de Costo Balance del Precios al Consumidor de la Mano de Gobierno (INE, Indice Obra por Hora, General Nominal General) (% de PGB) (INE) 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016
Citigroup Capital Economics C. Comercio Santiago Banchile Inversiones Banco Security BofA - Merrill Lynch Gemines Grupo Bursatil Mex Larrain Vial Pontifica Univ Catolica Oxford Economics JP Morgan Chase IHS Economics Banco BICE BBVA BTG Pactual Corp Research Santander Chile
2.2 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0
2.0 3.0 2.3 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.4 2.3 2.0 2.5 2.0 2.2 2.6 2.0
1.8 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.8 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.8 1.6 2.3 1.7 1.9 2.0 1.6 2.2 1.8
2.0 3.0 2.0 1.8 1.3 1.1 2.0 2.0 1.9 2.2 2.2 2.3 1.8 2.0 1.9 2.0 2.5 1.6
na 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.1 -2.8 -1.4 1.3 0.7 0.0 -2.0 -0.5 0.4 -0.2 -1.0 -1.2 -0.3 1.3
na 2.0 2.0 -0.3 -0.1 1.0 2.4 2.2 1.5 1.9 -0.3 1.3 0.5 1.5 0.3 1.7 2.8 1.4
na na -0.3 -0.7 -0.4 na -0.3 -0.2 -0.4 -0.2 0.2 -0.1 na 1.6 -0.5 na -0.3 0.8
na na 1.5 2.0 0.9 na 1.0 0.2 1.0 1.7 5.9 1.6 na na 0.5 na 1.5 1.1
4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.3 4.4 4.0 4.5 4.3 na 4.7 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.6
3.4 3.7 3.3 4.2 2.8 3.7 3.5 3.5 3.2 3.4 na 3.8 3.4 3.3 3.1 3.5 3.4 3.0
6.1 na 6.3 6.0 6.2 5.0 6.2 na 6.3 6.3 6.3 na na 5.5 6.2 6.2 5.8 5.9
4.5 na 5.7 5.2 5.2 5.0 5.1 na 5.5 5.8 5.6 na na 4.5 5.2 5.4 4.3 4.9
-3.3 -3.9 -2.5 -3.7 -3.5 -3.0 -3.3 -1.3 -3.6 -3.3 -2.5 -3.3 na -3.4 -2.4 -3.4 -2.7 -2.5
-3.5 -3.1 -2.6 -3.6 -3.6 -2.8 -3.5 -1.1 -4.0 -3.3 -2.5 -3.0 na na -3.4 -3.5 -2.8 -1.5
Consensus (Mean)
2.1
2.2
1.8
2.0
-0.3
1.3
-0.1
1.6
4.4
3.4
6.0
5.1
-3.0
-3.0
Last Month's Mean 3 Months Ago High Low Standard Deviation
2.1 2.2 2.2 2.0 0.1
2.4 2.6 3.0 2.0 0.3
1.9 1.9 2.3 1.6 0.2
2.2 2.3 3.0 1.1 0.4
-1.3 -1.2 1.3 -2.8 1.1
1.3 1.7 2.8 -0.3 1.0
0.2 0.5 1.6 -0.7 0.6
1.6 1.8 5.9 0.2 1.5
4.5 4.5 4.7 4.0 0.1
3.4 3.3 4.2 2.8 0.3
6.1 6.2 6.3 5.0 0.4
5.2 5.3 5.8 4.3 0.5
-3.2 -3.0 -1.3 -3.9 0.6
-3.0 -2.7 -1.1 -4.0 0.8
Comparison Forecasts Banco Central de Chile (Sep. '15) IMF (Oct. '15) OECD (Jun. '15) ECLAC (Nov. '15)
2.3 2.3 2.9 2.1
3.0 2.5 3.7 2.5
-1.2
1.9
4.6 4.2
3.7 3.5
-3.3
-2.3
1.2
1.2
2.2
3.3
Government
Nominal Hourly Wages (INE, General Index)
Historical Data 2011 2012 2013 2014
President - Ms. Michelle Bachelet (Socialist Party of Chile). The President was elected for a four-year term in December 2013. Government - Bachelet’s Nueva Mayoría coalition won a majority in both chambers: 67 out of 120 seats in the Chamber of Deputies, and 21 out of 38 in the Senate. The Chamber of Deputies (lower house) is elected for four-year terms, members of the senate (upper house) serve eightyear terms. Next Elections - 2017 (Presidential, Senate and Chamber of Deputies).
Gross Domestic Product*
5.8
5.5
4.2
1.9
Private Consumption*
8.9
6.1
5.9
2.2
15.0
11.6
2.1
-6.1
8.0
2.2
0.2
-1.0
4.4
1.5
3.0
4.6
6.9
7.2
6.2
7.0
1.4
0.6
-0.7
-1.6
Gross Fixed Investment* Manufacturing Production, INE General Index* Consumer Prices, INE, General Index (Dec/Dec) Nominal Hourly Wages, INE, General Index* * average % change on previous year
General Government Budget
Background Data
Balance, accrual basis (% of GDP)
(see page 15) 12
© Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2015
CHILE - 2
DECEMBER 2015 %
GDP Growth (% Change yoy)
8
Modest Revival in Q3 But Economy Still Sluggish After stagnating in the second quarter, Chile’s economy has witnessed a modest rebound in activity in the three months to September, bolstered by a pickup in both government spending and investment. The headline GDP number came in at 2.2% (y-o-y), up from 1.9% in the prior quarter, and in qo-q terms advanced by 0.4%. The economy’s Q3 performance benefited from a recovery in domestic demand, which expanded by 3.6% (y-o-y), thanks to a sharp rebound in gross fixed investment of 7.1% (y-o-y) and 2.5% growth in total consumption. A breakdown of the consumption component showed that consumer spending was up 1.8% while government consumption soared by 5.9% in the quarter. Real GDP growth for the first three quarters of 2015 has now averaged 2.2% and our panel reckons that the full-year figure will come in just shy of this at 2.1%. Although the economy has not shown much dynamism this year, nevertheless, growth is still expected to beat the 1.9% posted in 2014 which was a 5-year low. Next year the economy is expected to grow by a similar amount (2.2%). After kick-starting its monetary tightening cycle in October with a quarter percentage-point rate hike, borrowing costs have remained at 3.25% at the subsequent monetary policy meeting in November. Policymakers have indicated their desire to keep monetary conditions expansionary, especially since the economic recovery is still sluggish at best. Indeed, the central bank’s IMACEC economic activity indicator points to a soft start to the fourth quarter after output decelerated from 2.7% (y-o-y) in September to 1.5% in October. And in m-o-m terms, activity was flat versus an increase of 1.1% in September. Softness was also evident in other leading indicators for October as manufacturing shrank by -3.0% (y-o-y), registering its fastest pace of decline in five months. In addition, growth in retail sales moderated in the same month to 1.7% (y-o-y), decelerating from 3.1% in September.
Real GDP Growth and Inflation Forecast
7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 -1
Consumer Prices (% Change, Dec/Dec)
-2
'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16
GDP Growth and Inflation Forecasts %
Consensus Forecasts from Survey of:
2015 Jan Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
3.7
Aug Sep
Oct
Nov Dec
2016 Consumer Prices (% Change, Dec/Dec)
3.5 3.3 3.1 2.9 2.7
Following three straight months of trade deficits, Chile posted a surplus of US$0.4bn in November. A breakdown showed that exports fell by -10.4% (y-o-y) to register US$5.14bn while imports were down by a similar figure (10.0%) to come in at US$4.74bn. Our panel reckons that the trade surplus for the year will register a modest US$+5.2bn.
2.5
2016 GDP Growth (% Change yoy)
2.3 2.1
Monthly Inflation Forecasts Consumer prices, INE, General Index, not seasonally adjusted Consensus forecasts shown in bold italics 2015 June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2016 Jan Feb Mar Apr May
% change on previous month
0.5 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.2
% change on same month in previous year
4.4 4.6 5.0 4.6 4.0 3.9 4.5 4.7 4.5 4.4 4.1 4.1
0.7
%
December 2015 4.4 December 2016 3.4 The December y-o-y figure for the current year may not equate to the Dec/ Dec consensus forecast shown on the main table, since the number of survey respondents may be different, or because of rounding. © Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2015
Forecast
1.1
0.3
-0.1
-0.5 Jan 10 Jul 10 Jan 11 Jul 11 Jan 12 Jul 12 Jan 13 Jul 13 Jan 14 Jul 14 Jan 15 Jul 15 Jan 16
----- Consensus plus 1 Standard Deviation Actual and Consensus ----- Consensus minus 1 Standard Deviation
13
CHILE - 3
DECEMBER 2015 Rate on Survey Date: 3.3%
Annual Total Current Account Balance (US$bn)
ExportaImportaciones de ciones de Bienes Bienes (fab, US$ bn) (fab, US$bn)
Saldo en Tasa de Cuenta Interes de Corriente Politica (US$bn) Monetaria (%)
Balanza Comercial (fab-fab, US$bn)
Central Bank Monetary Policy Rate (%)
End
End
Economic Forecasters
2015
2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 Mar’16 Dec ’16
Citigroup Capital Economics C. Comercio Santiago Banchile Inversiones Banco Security BofA - Merrill Lynch Gemines Grupo Bursatil Mex Larrain Vial Pontifica Univ Catolica Oxford Economics JP Morgan Chase IHS Economics Banco BICE BBVA BTG Pactual Corp Research Santander Chile
64.3 na 65.2 72.3 62.7 66.5 64.0 63.1 64.0 64.6 64.0 64.9 64.9 64.0 63.2 65.8 68.0 63.1
62.4 na 66.3 68.4 63.0 66.7 63.0 55.1 62.4 68.0 63.6 66.5 71.7 na 64.0 63.7 69.5 57.2
58.4 na 60.4 68.1 59.1 58.4 59.0 58.9 60.1 60.5 58.0 58.8 61.3 56.0 58.7 59.8 61.0 58.9
57.3 na 63.6 61.4 60.5 59.6 61.0 56.3 61.5 64.0 58.2 62.0 68.0 na 60.0 59.8 63.0 58.6
6.0 na 4.9 4.2 3.6 8.1 5.0 4.2 3.9 4.1 6.0 6.0 3.6 8.0 4.5 6.0 7.0 4.2
5.1 na 2.7 7.0 2.5 7.1 2.0 -1.2 0.9 4.0 5.4 4.4 3.7 na 4.0 3.9 6.5 -1.4
-1.9 na -2.6 -1.3 -3.5 -0.5 -3.0 -4.4 -3.5 -3.9 -1.8 -3.7 -3.7 -0.7 -0.5 -0.3 -2.5 -1.4
-3.9 na -5.8 -0.3 -0.9 -1.0 -4.3 -5.2 -6.6 -3.3 -2.6 -5.6 -2.2 na -0.7 -0.9 -1.0 -1.7
na 3.5 3.3 3.5 3.5 3.8 3.8 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.3 na 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5
na 3.8 3.5 3.8 3.5 4.0 3.8 3.5 4.0 3.8 3.8 na 3.8 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.8
Consensus (Mean)
65.0
64.5
59.7
60.9
5.2
3.5
-2.3
-2.9
3.5
3.7
Last Month's Mean 3 Months Ago High Low Standard Deviation
67.1 69.5 72.3 62.7 2.3
68.4 71.6 71.7 55.1 4.3
60.9 62.2 68.1 56.0 2.5
63.1 65.1 68.0 56.3 2.9
6.2 7.3 8.1 3.6 1.5
5.3 6.5 7.1 -1.4 2.6
-1.7 -1.0 -0.3 -4.4 1.4
-2.5 -1.7 -0.3 -6.6 2.1
3.8 3.3 0.1
4.0 3.5 0.2
Comparison Forecasts Banco Central de 64.8 Chile (Sep. '15) IMF (Oct. '15) OECD (Jun. '15) ECLAC (Nov. '15)
64.5
58.8
60.6
6.0
3.9
Historical Trade Data (US$ billion) 2011 2012 2013 2014 Merchandise Exports, fob Merchandise Imports, fob (-) Trade Balance, fob-fob
81.4 70.4 11.0
77.8 75.5 2.3
76.5 75.7 74.7 67.9 1.8 7.8
Services Exports Services Imports (-) Interest, Profits and Dividends (net) Transfers (net)
13.1 16.2
12.4 15.1
12.5 11.0 15.9 14.7
-13.9 -11.3 -10.7 2.9 2.1 2.2
-1.8
-3.7
-2.1
-0.1
-3.1
Real Central Bank 90-Day Bill Rate (%), end year
5.3
5.0
40.1
39.7
-9.6 -10.1
-8.9 1.9
4.5
-3.0
3.0
39.3 38.9
Major Export Markets (% of Total)
2014 24.6 12.2 10.0 6.2 5.4
China United States Japan South Korea Brazil
Major Import Suppliers (% of Total)
2014 20.9 19.8 7.8 4.0 3.3
China United States Brazil Argentina Japan Major Exports (% of Total)
2014 54.2 38.2 7.6
Copper Industrial Products Agricultural Products Major Imports (% of Total)
Intermediate Goods Consumer Goods Fuels and Lubricants Capital Goods
2014 38.8 29.5 20.0 18.0
Likelihood of an Interest Rate Change The panel's estimated average probability of a change in Banco Central de Chile’s Monetary Policy Rate (currently 3.25%) between the survey date and January 15, 2016, was: % probability of: INCREASE NO CHANGE DECREASE 42.0 + 57.9 + 0.0 = 100% Most likely rate change mentioned was: +0.25%
Interest Rate Forecasts %
Current Account Balance
Foreign Currency Reserves, excl. Gold & SDRs, end year
14
Trade Structure
Merchandise Merchandise Merchandise Trade Exports Imports Balance (fob, US$bn) (fob, US$bn) (fob-fob, US$bn)
6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0
Monetary Policy Rate annualised, %, end period
Forecast
Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul 10 10 11 11 12 12 13 13 14 14 15 15 16 16
© Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2015
CHILE - 4
DECEMBER 2015
Background Data 2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
99.33 123.06 154.67 173.08 179.63 171.96
217.54
2011
2012
2013
2014
250.83
265.23
276.93
257.79
121319 129028 137029
147185
Nominal GDP US$bn
76.14
Pesos bn
52643 60547 68883 82018 90429 93848 96444 110999
Peso - % Change
13.6
15.0
13.8
19.1
2.8
15.1
9.3
6.4
6.2
7.4
GDP per Head (US$)
4759
6143
7531
9374 10383 10673 10121
10.3
3.8
12684
14491
15191
15717
14507
Population (millions)
16.0
16.2
16.3
16.5
16.7
16.8
17.0
17.2
17.3
17.5
17.6
17.8
End-year
599.4
559.8
514.2
534.4
495.8
629.1
506.4
468.4
521.5
478.6
523.8
606.9
Average
691.4
609.5
559.8
530.3
522.5
522.5
560.9
510.2
483.7
486.5
494.8
570.9
Peso per US$
23500 21500 19500 17500
Sentiment Indicators Stock Market - Chile Bolsa de Comercio de Santiago IGPA (Índice General de Precios de Acciones) Index (price index)
15500 13500 11500 9500 7500 5500 3500 Dec-01 Dec-02 Dec-03 Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16
Copper Prices - Grade A Cash 480 US cents per pound 440 400 360 320 280 240 200 ----- Consensus Forecasts 160 (Source: Energy & Metals Consensus Forecasts – 120 converted from US$/metric tonne to US cents/pound) 80 40 Dec-01 Dec-02 Dec-03 Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17
Merchandise Trade US$ Billion
Forecast
90 80 Exports
70 60 50 40
Imports
30 20 10 0 -10
Trade Balance
'92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 © Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2015
US$ Billion
45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10
Foreign Currency Reserves and Current Account Balance
Forecast
Foreign Currency Reserves (US$bn) Consensus Forecasts for: End-2015 38.2 End-2016 38.3
Current Account Balance
'92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16
15
MEXICO - 1
DECEMBER 2015 % Change, Dec-on-Dec
Average % Change on Previous Calendar Year Gross Domestic Product
Private Consumption
Gross Fixed Investment
Consumo Privado
Inversión Fija Bruta
Producto Interno Bruto
Consumer Public Sector Average Prices Budget Industrial Wages (Banco de Balance, incl. (Banco de Mexico Index) Mexico Index) privatization (% of GDP) Balance Salarios en la Precios al Producción Economico del Industria Consumidor Manufacturera Manufacturera Sector Público, (Banco de (INEGI) incl. Privatizac(Banco de México) iones (% de PIB) México) 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 Manufacturing Production (INEGI)
2015
2016
2015
2016
2015
2016
Jonathan Heath & Assoc ING Action Economics Barclays Capital Economics Consultores Econ Grupo Bursatil Mexicano IHS Economics JP Morgan Chase Mex XP Securities Oxford Economics Banamex-Citi Grupo Bursametrica CAIE-ITAM BofA - Merrill Lynch HSBC Morgan Stanley Ve Por Mas Vector Casa de Bolsa
2.6 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.1
2.8 2.9 2.8 2.5 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.5 2.8 3.5 2.7 2.8 3.2 3.2 2.5 2.6 2.5 2.6 1.8
3.3 2.7 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.8 3.0 2.8 2.9 2.8 2.8 3.2 2.7 2.8 3.5 3.2 3.2 3.1 2.7
3.0 2.9 3.0 2.6 3.2 3.1 3.3 2.2 2.9 4.0 3.1 3.4 2.8 2.6 3.1 3.1 2.7 3.3 2.8
5.0 4.4 4.6 4.5 4.0 5.6 5.0 4.3 2.7 3.5 4.1 5.0 4.6 3.4 3.5 3.5 4.0 4.6 3.4
7.3 4.6 6.0 5.0 4.5 5.9 4.5 3.0 3.1 7.0 3.8 5.8 5.0 2.6 0.2 4.5 2.5 3.4 3.7
1.9 1.3 3.0 na na 3.1 2.9 3.0 2.9 2.0 1.2 na 3.1 2.8 na 2.7 na 2.8 3.1
2.9 2.4 3.2 na na 3.5 1.5 2.9 3.3 4.0 2.6 na 3.9 3.8 na 2.7 na 1.7 3.8
2.2 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.8 2.3 2.3 2.1 2.3 2.7 na 2.6 2.4 2.0 2.2 2.9 2.8 2.0 2.3
3.3 3.1 3.5 3.0 3.3 3.9 3.0 2.7 3.5 3.8 na 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.1 3.5 3.0 3.4
na na 4.4 na na 4.3 4.0 na na 4.2 4.3 na 2.7 na 4.2 4.1 na na 4.6
na na 3.5 na na 4.2 4.0 na na 4.0 4.0 na 3.6 na 4.5 4.0 na na 4.6
-3.5 -3.5 -3.5 -2.9 -4.0 -3.6 -3.9 -3.5 -3.5 -3.6 -3.4 -3.5 -3.4 -3.5 -3.5 -3.5 -3.5 -3.5 -3.8
-3.0 -3.3 -3.2 -3.0 -3.5 -3.0 -3.5 -3.1 -3.0 -3.3 -3.4 -3.0 -3.5 -3.0 -3.0 -3.0 -3.5 -3.0 -4.6
Consensus (Mean)
2.4
2.8
3.0
3.0
4.2
4.3
2.6
3.0
2.4
3.3
4.1
4.0
-3.5
-3.3
Last Month's Mean 3 Months Ago High Low Standard Deviation
2.3 2.4 2.6 2.1 0.1
2.8 3.0 3.5 1.8 0.4
2.9 2.9 3.5 2.7 0.2
3.1 3.1 4.0 2.2 0.4
4.3 3.9 5.6 2.7 0.7
4.7 4.5 7.3 0.2 1.7
2.4 2.7 3.1 1.2 0.7
3.1 3.5 4.0 1.5 0.8
2.7 2.8 2.9 2.0 0.3
3.4 3.4 3.9 2.7 0.3
4.2 4.3 4.6 2.7 0.5
4.2 4.2 4.6 3.5 0.4
-3.5 -3.5 -2.9 -4.0 0.2
-3.1 -3.3 -3.0 -4.6 0.4
Comparison Forecasts IMF (Oct. '15) OECD (Nov. '15) ECLAC (Nov. '15)
2.3 2.3 2.2
2.8 3.1 2.5
2.6
3.0
-4.0
-3.5
2.8
2.9
5.5
3.2
Economic Forecasters
Government President-Elect - Mr. Enrique Peña Nieto (PRI). The President was elected for a six-year term in July 2012. Government - The Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) won 226 of the 500 seats in the Chamber of Deputies (lower house) in the July 2012 legislative elections, pushing the PAN (National Action Party) into third place with 122 seats and the PRD (Party of the Democratic Revolution) rose to second, with 141. The lower house is elected partly by proportional representation and partly "first past the post", with elections held every 3 years. Next Elections - July 2015 (legislative); July 2018 (presidential and legislative).
Background Data (see page 19) 16
Average Annual Annual Total % change
Historical Data 2011 2012 2013 2014 Gross Domestic Product*
4.0
4.0
1.3
2.3
Private Consumption*
4.8
4.9
2.3
2.0
Gross Fixed Investment*
7.8
4.8
-1.6
2.3
4.6
4.1
1.1
3.9
3.8
3.6
4.0
4.1
3.7
4.2
4.0
4.6
Public Sector Budget Balance, including privatisation -2.4 proceeds (% of GDP)
-2.6
-2.3
-3.2
Manufacturing Production, INEGI* Consumer Prices, Banco de Mexico (Dec/Dec) Average Industrial Wages, Banco de Mexico* * average % change on previous year
© Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2015
MEXICO - 2
DECEMBER 2015 %
6 5
Banxico Poised to Act Despite Modest Near-Term Growth After a muted Q2, output-based GDP growth accelerated from 2.3% (y-o-y) to 2.6% in Q3. In seasonally-adjusted q-oq terms, GDP was up by 0.8%, lifted by a 2.3% surge in agriculture and 0.8% pace in both services and industry. The relatively upbeat industrial outturn was good news considering Q2 had been held down by the slump in oil output and US exports. With the US recovering, the hope is that industry is picking up. Mexican manufacturing is expanding more strongly than industrial production as a whole since it is not reined in by weak oil and mining. However, after accelerating by 3.3% (y-o-y) in August and 3.6% in September, manufacturing slowed to 1.2% while m-o-m production gains were negligeable. Moreover, uncertainty over the external outlook is weighing on manufacturing in Q4, especially while the closelylinked US sector is performing weakly. However, our panel’s 2016 manufacturing forecast suggests a pick-up as US industry is expected to shake off recent weakness next year. November’s IMEF PMI points to gradually improving manufacturing activity. Meanwhile, GDP growth is being lifted by domestic demand. Even though retail sales performed weakly in September (declining by 1.1% (m-o-m) following a 1.5% rise in August), private consumption has been underpinned by easier consumer credit which helped to lift auto purchases. The 2015 consumption forecast has risen.
Real GDP Growth and Inflation
Forecast
GDP Growth (% Change yoy) - left scale
10
4 8
3 2 1
6
0 -1 -2
4
-3 -4 -5
Consumer Prices (% Change, Dec/Dec) - right scale
2
'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16
GDP Growth and Inflation Forecasts %
Consensus Forecasts from Survey of:
2015 Jan Feb Mar
Apr May Jun
Jul
Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
3.8 3.7
November inflation came in lower than expected at 2.2% (yo-y), down from 2.5% in September and October. Declines in telecoms, gasoline, services and raw food prices helped to moderate headline inflation; ‘Black Friday’ discounts also reduced non-food merchandise prices. Domestic energy prices also continued to weigh on the CPI. Despite the soft inflation/growth environment, Banxico has signalled its intent to raise the policy rate on December 17, one day after the US Federal Reserve did the same. Banxico’s priority with this move would be to preserve financial stability, particularly with the peso under pressure at the moment. The central bank wants to stay closely aligned with its biggest trading partner even though the muted economy would benefit from central bank support. Going forward, Banxico is not expected to follow the Fed’s every move as this initial rate hike will hopefully send a stabilizing message to the markets.
2016 Consumer Prices (% Change, Dec/Dec)
3.6 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.1 3.0 2.9
2016 GDP Growth (% Change yoy)
2.8 2.7
Monthly Inflation Forecasts Consumer prices, Banco de Mexico index, not seasonally adjusted Consensus forecasts shown in bold italics
2015 June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2016 Jan Feb Mar Apr May
% change on previous month
0.2 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 -0.1 -0.4
% change on same month in previous year
2.9 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.2 2.2 2.7 2.8 2.7 2.9 3.1
1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6
%
Decem ber 2015 2.4 Decem ber 2016 3.3 The December y-o-y figure for the current year may not equate to the Dec/ Dec consensus forecast shown on the main table, since the number of survey respondents may be different, or because of rounding. © Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2015
Forecast
0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6 -0.8 Jan 10 Jul 10 Jan 11 Jul 11 Jan 12 Jul 12 Jan 13 Jul 13 Jan 14 Jul 14 Jan 15 Jul 15 Jan 16
----- Consensus plus 1 Standard Deviation Actual and Consensus ----- Consensus minus 1 Standard Deviation 17
MEXICO - 3
DECEMBER 2015 Rate on Survey Date: 3.2%
Annual Total Merchandise Merchandise Merchandise Imports Trade Exports (fob, US$bn) (fob, US$bn) Balance (fob-fob, US$bn) Balanza ImportaExportaComercial ciones de ciones de (fab-fab, Mercancías Mercancías US$bn) (fab, US$ bn) (fab, US$bn) Economic Forecasters
Saldo en Tasa de Cuenta Interés Corriente CETES (US$bn) a 28 días (%) End
End
2016
2015
Jonathan Heath & Assoc ING Action Economics Barclays Capital Economics Consultores Econ Grupo Bursatil Mexicano IHS Economics JP Morgan Chase Mex XP Securities Oxford Economics Banamex-Citi Grupo Bursametrica CAIE-ITAM BofA - Merrill Lynch HSBC Morgan Stanley Ve Por Mas Vector Casa de Bolsa
384.2 386.1 384.8 391.5 na 383.3 389.9 382.4 407.9 385.0 367.7 389.7 351.3 381.6 392.9 393.8 388.4 383.2 396.0
396.1 389.9 396.6 430.1 na 405.7 401.5 396.4 433.8 418.0 360.9 419.8 385.8 395.7 419.0 411.3 402.0 400.9 409.0
397.3 400.0 399.4 402.8 na 397.4 399.4 394.8 418.2 400.0 378.0 403.8 362.9 395.7 408.5 404.2 400.4 399.4 408.0
-34.9 -33.0 -36.7 -26.1 na -35.5 -32.2 -25.7 -35.3 -20.0 -32.9 -35.0 -31.0 -28.5 -35.9 -29.5 -32.0 -48.1 -47.0
3.3 na 3.4 3.0 3.3 3.5 3.8 3.3 3.6 na 3.3 na 3.3 3.6 na na 3.3 3.3 3.5
4.3 na 4.2 3.5 4.0 4.3 3.8 4.0 4.1 na 3.8 na 3.6 3.8 na na 4.0 3.8 4.1
Consensus (Mean)
385.5 404.0 398.3 416.4 -12.8 -12.3 -32.8 -33.3
3.4
3.9
Last Month's Mean 3 Months Ago High Low Standard Deviation
389.1 394.8 407.9 351.3 11.7
3.8 3.0 0.2
4.3 3.5 0.2
401.0 403.7 418.2 362.9 11.8
409.6 408.0 414.6 429.4 na 420.8 411.0 400.8 444.2 420.0 373.2 440.5 397.6 404.0 437.2 423.0 412.4 425.3 423.0
419.7 426.7 444.2 373.2 17.0
-13.1 -13.9 -14.6 -11.3 na -14.1 -9.5 -12.4 -10.2 -15.0 -10.3 -14.1 -11.6 -14.1 -15.6 -10.4 -12.0 -16.2 -12.0
-13.6 -18.1 -18.0 0.7 na -15.1 -9.5 -4.4 -10.4 -2.0 -12.3 -20.8 -11.8 -8.3 -18.2 -11.7 -10.4 -24.4 -14.0
2015 2016 Mar ’16 Dec’16
-32.3 -32.0 -32.7 -33.7 na -33.6 -32.7 -32.9 -31.4 -35.0 -31.4 -29.6 -30.2 -32.5 -34.9 -27.9 -35.0 -37.0 -36.0
-11.9 -11.2 -31.7 -31.7 -8.9 -7.2 -29.7 -29.3 -9.5 0.7 -27.9 -20.0 -16.2 -24.4 -37.0 -48.1 2.0 6.4 2.3 6.7
Comparison Forecasts IMF (Oct. '15) OECD (Nov. '15) ECLAC (Nov. '15)
-27.9 -24.3 -23.8 -21.0
Historical Trade Data Merchandise Exports, fob
2011 2012 2013 2014 349.4 370.8 380.0 397.1
Merchandise Im ports, fob (-)
350.8 370.8 381.2 400.0
Trade Balance, fob-fob
-1.4
0.0
-1.2
-2.8
Services Exports
16.2
16.8
20.9
21.8
Services Imports (-)
30.3
30.3
31.4
33.7
Interest, Profits and Dividends (net)
%
5.0
2014 80.2 2.7 1.5 1.5 1.2
United States Canada China Spain Colombia
Major Import Suppliers (% of Total)
2014 48.8 16.6 4.4 3.4 3.4
United States China Japan South Korea Germany Major Exports (% of Total)
Manufactures Petroleum Agriculture/Forestry/Fish Mining
2014 84.9 10.7 3.1 1.3
Major Imports (% of Total)
Intermediate Goods Consumer Goods Capital Goods
2014 75.5 14.6 9.9
28-day CETES rates (latest auction), annualised, %, end period Forecast
4.0
-20.6 -25.0 -39.7 -32.3 23.0
22.9
3.5
Current Account Balance
-13.2 -15.9 -29.7 -24.0
3.0
Foreign Currency Reserves, excl. Gold & SDRs, end year 1 includes Maquiladoras
(% of Total)
4.5
Transfers (net)
28-Day CETES Rate (% ), end yr
Major Export Markets
Interest Rate Forecasts
(US$ billion)
18
28-Day CETES Rate (%)
2015
408.5 419.6 433.8 360.9 17.1
2016 2015 2016
Current Account Balance (US$bn)
Trade Structure
4.3
22.6
4.0
21.7
3.2
2.7
137.5 153.5 168.6 185.2
2.5 Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul 10 10 11 11 12 12 13 13 14 14 15 15 16 16
© Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2015
MEXICO - 4
DECEMBER 2015
Background Data 2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
US$bn
713.3
770.3
866.3
966.9 1043.5 1101.3
894.9
1051.1
1171.2
1186.6
1262.5
1290.3
Pesos bn
7696
8693
9441 10538 11403 12257 12094
13282
14550
15627
16116
17161
7.5
13.0
9.8
9.5
7.4
3.1
6.5
Nominal GDP
Peso - % Change
8.6
11.6
8.2
7.5
-1.3
GDP per Head (US$)
6601
7042
7824
8624
9191
9579
7687
8916
9812
9819
10320
10423
Population (millions)
108.1
109.4
110.7
112.1
113.5
115.0
116.4
117.9
119.4
120.9
122.3
123.8
End-year
11.24
11.26
10.78
10.88
10.87
13.54
13.06
12.36
13.99
13.01
13.07
14.74
Average
10.79
11.29
10.90
10.90
10.93
11.13
13.51
12.64
12.42
13.17
12.77
13.30
Peso per US$
48500 43500 38500 33500
Sentiment Indicators
Stock Market - Mexico Bolsa Mexicana de Valores (BMV) IPC (Índice de Precios y Cotizaciones) Index (price index)
28500 23500 18500 13500 8500 3500 Dec-01 Dec-02 Dec-03 Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16
Price of Mexican Bonds on Secondary Debt Market, % of Par Value
200 180 160 140 120
----- Matured Bond (31/12/2019) 11.5% Bond due 15/05/2026
100 80
60 D e c - 01 D e c -0 2 D e c -0 3 D e c -0 4 D e c - 0 5 D e c - 0 6 D e c - 0 7 D e c - 0 8 D ec - 0 9 D ec - 1 0 D ec - 11 D ec - 12 D e c - 1 3 D e c - 1 4 D e c - 1 5 D e c - 1 6
Merchandise Trade
US$ Billion
Forecast
450 390 Imports
330 270 210 150
Trade Balance
90 30
Exports
-30 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 © Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2015
US$ Billion
220 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 -20 -40
Foreign Currency Reserves and Current Account Balance
Forecast
Foreign Currency Reserves (US$bn) Consensus Forecasts for: End-2015 171.1 End-2016 172.8
Current Account Balance
'92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 19
VENEZUELA - 1
DECEMBER 2015 % Change, Average Annual % change Dec-on-Dec
Average % Change on Previous Calendar Year Gross Domestic Product
Producto Interno Bruto
Private Consumption
Gross Fixed Investment
Consumo Privado
Inversión Bruta Fija
2015
2016
2015
-5.5 BofA - Merrill Lynch -6.0 Datanalisis -7.4 IHS Economics -7.4 Econ Intelligence Unit -7.5 Oxford Economics -7.5 HSBC -7.6 MPG Consultores -8.0 JP Morgan Chase -8.6 Coyuntura (Maxim Ross) Azpurua Garcia Velazquez -8.9 -9.2 Ecoanalitica -9.5 Citigroup -10.0 Capital Economics -10.4 VenEconomia -11.1 Banco Mercantil
0.5 -5.0 -5.4 -6.2 -4.5 -4.3 na -3.5 -6.8 -2.9 -6.5 -5.6 -3.0 2.9 -7.4
-5.1 -6.0 -5.6 -9.9 -6.8 -7.6 -6.6 -10.0 -7.4 na -5.6 -9.0 -8.0 -9.0 -8.5
Consensus (Mean)
-8.3
-4.1
Last Month's Mean 3 Months Ago High Low Standard Deviation
-8.0 -7.4 -5.5 -11.1 1.6
-3.9 -3.8 2.9 -7.4 2.9
Comparison Forecasts Corp Andina de Fomento (Dec. '15) IMF (Oct. '15) ECLAC (Nov. '15)
-9.9 -10.0 -6.7
-5.0 -6.0 -7.0
Economic Forecasters
2016
Consumer Prices (Caracas Metropolitan Area)
Nominal Wages (OCEI, all employees)
Central Government Budget Balance (% of GDP)
Precios al Producción Consumidor Manufacturera (Area Metropolitana de Caracas) 2015 2016 2015 2016
Salarios Nominales (OCEI, Sueldo)
Balance del Gobierno Central (% de PIB)
2015
2016
2015
Manufacturing Production
2015
2016
-1.1 -4.0 -5.3 -6.9 -6.8 -3.9 na -6.0 -4.2 na -5.0 -6.1 -2.0 3.0 -3.7
-14.7 -17.0 -22.8 -20.0 -6.1 -24.6 -13.0 -18.0 -28.8 na -32.8 -16.7 -20.0 -11.0 -23.4
-1.6 -5.0 -9.0 -19.3 -3.3 -5.1 na 2.0 -15.3 na -16.6 -10.6 -6.0 6.0 -13.8
na -10.0 -7.3 -10.1 -8.1 -13.5 -8.6 0.0 -12.2 na -9.9 na na -12.0 -16.0
na -3.0 -5.1 -8.0 -4.8 -7.7 na 0.0 -8.7 na -8.9 na na 6.0 -8.9
153.1 195.0 138.6 178.5 na 214.7 162.7 230.0 231.2 162.1 199.7 195.0 200.0 190.0 128.1
200.2 250.0 138.6 86.5 na 118.5 na 150.0 178.0 122.5 295.0 257.0 150.0 275.0 108.8
na 70.0 na na 93.8 115.0 82.0 na 83.6 na 63.2 97.0 na 125.0 36.1
na 100.0 na na 129.4 59.4 na na 125.0 na 201.9 120.0 na 200.0 59.5
-5.4 -12.0 na na -7.4 -3.6 -10.1 -9.0 -5.1 -6.8 na -9.4 na -19.8 -6.6
-2.3 -8.0 na na -4.1 -2.1 na -6.0 -5.9 -7.0 na -12.2 na -9.4 -6.8
-7.5
-4.0
-19.2
-7.5
-9.8
-4.9
184.2 179.2
85.1
124.4
-8.6
-6.4
-7.3 -6.4 -5.1 -10.0 1.6
-3.7 -2.8 3.0 -6.9 2.7
-18.7 -18.0 -6.1 -32.8 7.1
-7.1 -6.9 6.0 -19.3 7.5
-9.2 -9.1 0.0 -16.0 4.1
-4.3 -4.3 6.0 -8.9 4.8
183.5 165.2 157.1 127.3 231.2 295.0 128.1 86.5 31.8 69.5
92.5 88.3 125.0 36.1 27.0
118.5 100.8 201.9 59.4 54.5
-9.2 -10.2 -3.6 -19.8 4.4
-5.5 -6.7 -2.1 -12.2 3.1
-24.4
-25.0
231.3 272.6 190.0 210.0
President - Mr. Nicolás Maduro (PSUV). The president won a narrow victory for a six-year term on April 14, 2013. Government - The opposition Democratic Unity Roundtable (MUD) won 109 out of 167 seats in the National Assembly on December 6, 2015. The United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) lost its majority and holds 55 seats. Next Elections - Presidential elections in October 2018.
Background Data
2016
Historical Data
Government
(see page 23)
Annual Total
2011 2012 2013 2014 Gross Domestic Product*
4.2
5.6
1.3
-3.7 e
Private Consumption*
4.0
7.0
4.7
-3.6 e
Gross Fixed Investment*
4.4 23.3
-9.0 -16.5 e
Manufacturing Production*
3.8
-0.3
1.8
-7.2 e
Consumer Prices, Caracas Metropolitan Area (Dec/Dec)
29.0 19.5 52.7 64.7
Nominal Wages, all employees*
31.4 28.0 32.5 54.4 e
* average % change on previous year
Central Government Budget Balance (% of GDP)
-4.0
-4.8
-1.8 e -5.9 e
e = consensus estimate from latest survey 20
© Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2015
VENEZUELA - 2
DECEMBER 2015 Real GDP Growth and Inflation
%
200 190 180 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10
Opposition Wins Legislatives, Opens Economic Debate In spite of the Maduro administration’s jailing of opposition candidates and its almost complete lock on the media, December 6 national assembly elections were won by the conservative Democratic Unity bloc which secured a twothirds majority. It is not difficult to see why even loyal Chávistas turned against the ruling PSUV. Despite sitting on some of the largest reserves of oil in the world, poverty is rife, the rule of law has irretrievably broken down and violent crime has soared. Government control across all institutions and levers of activity have translated into a lack of prevailing checks and balances, allowing widespread corruption to flourish. The economy’s collapse has exacerbated these huge problems. The private sector has been steadily eroded by forced nationalisations and punitive law-making, leading to a deterioration in the country’s productive capacity. Venezuela must therefore import everything it needs. However, currency and capital controls have contributed to significant distortions in the economy, complicating the state’s ability to cover imports. Widespread shortages – from badly-needed US dollars to pay for imports, to basic staples – abound. The collapse in world oil prices has worsened the situation. Therefore, new policymakers face an uphill battle with regards to improving security, re-orienting economic policy and implementing such policy in the face of strong PSUV resistance. The complex, three-tiered exchange rate regime which significantly overvalues the bolivar – and which has contributed to a black market rate of Bs860/US$ – will need to be overhauled. Allowing the currency to float would likely result in a devastating devaluation. Secondly, anecdotal evidence suggests that inflation has soared to 200% on the back of shortages. Price-controlled goods are especially scarce, so goods on the black market are sought out at 10 times the cost. People may also be hoarding supplies in order to re-sell them at the higher price, therefore perpetuating the inflationary spiral. Thirdly, oil prices are likely to remain low for the foreseeable future.
Forecast
Consumer Prices (% Change, Dec/Dec)
GDP Growth (% Change yoy) '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16
GDP Growth and Inflation Forecasts % 2015
Consensus Forecasts from Survey of:
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
185.0 160.0
1.0
2016 GDP Growth (% Change yoy) right scale
0.5 0.0 -0.5
135.0
-1.0 -1.5
110.0
-2.0 -2.5
85.0
-3.0 60.0 35.0
-3.5
2016 Consumer Prices (% Change, Dec/Dec) - left scale
The president recently announced that GDP contracted by ‘only’ 4% this year while annual inflation is at 100%. Our panel predicts a much sharper contraction in GDP this year and inflation at 184.2% by end-2015.
-4.0 -4.5
Monthly Inflation Forecasts Consumer prices, Caracas, not seasonally adjusted Consensus forecasts shown in bold italics
2015 June July A ug Sep Oct N ov D ec 2016 Jan Feb Mar A pr May
% change on previous month
% change on same month in previous year
8.7 9.7 8.6 9.6 10.4 9.8 10.9 11.5 10.6 12.0 11.4 10.5
96.9 107.3 116.7 127.9 137.8 148.9 164.1 179.5 188.6 200.0 212.8 224.6
16.0 14.0 12.0
%
D ecem ber 2015 184.2 D ecem ber 2016 179.2 The December y-o-y figure for the current year may not equate to the Dec/ Dec consensus forecast shown on the main table, since the number of survey respondents may be different, or because of rounding. © Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2015
Forecast
18.0
10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 Jan 10 Jul 10 Jan 11 Jul 11 Jan 12 Jul 12 Jan 13 Jul 13 Jan 14 Jul 14 Jan 15 Jul 15 Jan 16
----- Consensus plus 1 Standard Deviation Actual and Consensus ----- Consensus minus 1 Standard Deviation 21
VENEZUELA - 3
DECEMBER 2015 Rate on Survey Date: 14.7%
Annual Total
Economic Forecasters
Merchandise Merchandise Exports Imports (fob, US$bn) (fob, US$bn)
Merch. Trade Balance (fob-fob, US$bn)
Current Account Balance (US$bn)
30-Day Deposit Rate (%)
ImportaExportaciones de ciones de Mercancías Mercancías (fab, US$bn) (fab, US$bn)
Balanza Comercial (fab-fab, US$bn)
Saldo en Cuenta Corriente (US$bn)
Tasa de Interés de Depósitos a 30 días (%)
2015
BofA - Merrill Lynch Datanalisis IHS Economics Econ Intelligence Unit Oxford Economics HSBC MPG Consultores JP Morgan Chase Coyuntura (Maxim Ross) Azpurua Garcia Velazquez Ecoanalitica Citigroup Capital Economics VenEconomia Banco Mercantil
46.6 44.0 37.6 43.1 45.9 47.7 41.5 41.2 39.3 42.2 39.0 39.5 na 35.1 43.0
Consensus (Mean) Last Month's Mean 3 Months Ago High Low Standard Deviation Comparison Forecasts Corp Andina de Fomento (Dec. '15) IMF (Oct. '15) ECLAC (Nov. '15)
End
End
na 16.0 na na 24.0 na 16.0 na 15.5 14.5 na na na 20.0 14.7
na 21.0 na na 24.0 na na na 18.0 14.5 na na na 35.0 14.7
2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 Mar’16 Dec’16
44.5 52.0 32.9 48.6 39.9 52.1 na 41.6 35.0 42.2 40.3 39.5 na 25.0 48.5
36.9 35.0 39.6 32.7 37.9 37.1 32.4 33.6 29.0 31.0 36.9 37.9 na 25.9 31.1
31.5 38.0 35.0 30.8 35.1 35.1 na 33.6 27.3 31.0 30.8 36.0 na 21.0 30.5
9.8 9.0 -2.0 10.3 7.9 10.6 9.1 7.6 10.3 11.2 2.1 1.6 na 9.2 11.9
13.0 14.0 -2.1 17.9 4.7 17.0 na 8.0 7.7 11.2 9.5 3.5 na 4.0 17.9
-9.5 -6.0 -17.1 -12.9 -8.0 -7.0 -7.3 -13.8 -9.4 -3.9 -7.3 -14.4 na -11.6 -6.9
41.8 41.7
34.1 32.0
7.8
9.7
-9.7
41.6 42.6 47.7 35.1 3.5
34.7 33.3 39.6 25.9 3.9
44.9 47.6 52.1 25.0 7.8
39.9 43.1
-3.4 -2.0 -14.0 -3.7 -6.0 2.0 na -13.0 -10.5 -4.0 -0.7 -8.8 na -12.0 -1.2
-5.9 17.2 21.2
34.0 6.9 10.8 -9.5 -5.4 33.0 9.4 14.6 -8.5 -3.7 38.0 11.9 17.9 -3.9 2.0 24.0 35.0 21.0 -2.0 -2.1 -17.1 -14.0 14.5 14.5 4.4 4.2 6.2 3.8 5.2 3.5 7.7
36.6 32.7
3.3 10.4 -14.7
-6.7
Historical Trade Data
Trade Structure Major Export Markets (% of Total)
2014 34.7 15.2 13.0 5.5 4.8
United States India China Cuba Singapore
Major Import Suppliers (% of Total)
2014 28.5 14.2 11.7 5.1 5.0
United States China Brazil Argentina Colombia Major Exports (% of Total)
2012 Petroleum, Gas & Derivatives 96.1 Others 3.9
Major Imports (% of Total)
2012 56.7 26.2 17.1
Raw & Intermediate Goods Fixed Capital Goods Final Consumption Goods
Interest Rate Forecasts
(US$ billion)
30-day Deposit Rate, annualised, %, end period
2011 2012 2013 2014 Merchandise Exports, fob Merchandise Imports, fob (-) Trade Balance, fob-fob Services Balance (net)
92.8 97.3 89.0 76.1 e 46.8 59.3 53.0 43.7 e 46.0 38.0 35.9 32.3 e -13.7 -16.0 -17.6
Interest, Profits and Dividends (net) Transfers (net)
-7.1 -10.0 -11.8 -0.8 -1.0 -1.2
Current Account Balance
24.4 11.0
30-Day Deposit Rate (%), end year
14.5 14.5 14.5 14.5
Foreign Currency Reserves, excl. Gold & SDRs, end year
6.0
6.0
5.3
2.1
7.6 e
4.1 e
% 22.0 21.5 21.0 20.5 20.0 19.5 19.0 18.5 18.0 17.5 17.0 16.5 16.0 15.5 15.0 14.5 14.0
Forecast
Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul 10 10 11 11 12 12 13 13 14 14 15 15 16 16
e = consensus estimate from latest survey 22
© Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2015
VENEZUELA - 4
DECEMBER 2015
Background Data 2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
83.53 112.47 145.50 183.48 230.36 315.60 329.42
393.82
316.50
382.45
2013
2014
419.01 e
640.05 e
Nominal GDP US$bn Bolivars bn
134228 212683 304087 393926 494592 677594 707263 1016835 1357487 1640333 2537799 e 4025933 e
Bolivar - % Change
24.5
58.4
43.0
29.5
25.6
37.0
4.4
43.8
33.5
20.8
54.7 e
58.6 e
GDP per Head (US$)
3237
4283
5443
6748
8328 11223 11526
13561
10729
12770
13779 e
20747 e
Population (millions)
25.8
26.3
26.7
27.2
27.7
28.1
28.6
29.0
29.5
30.0
30.4
30.9
End-year
1.598
1.918
2.147
2.147
2.147
2.147
2.147
2.593
4.289
4.289
6.284
6.290
Average
1.607
1.891
2.090
2.147
2.147
2.147
2.147
2.582
4.289
4.289
6.057
6.290
Bolivar per US$
Sentiment Indicators 140 130
Oil Prices – Brent price index - End Month (US$ per barrel)
120 110 100 90 80 70 60
----- Consensus Forecasts (Source: Consensus Forecasts and Energy & Metals Consensus Forecasts)
50 40 30 20
10 0 D ec -01 D ec -02 D ec -03 D ec -04 D ec -05 D ec -06 D ec -07 D ec -08 D ec -09 D ec -10 D ec -11 D ec -12 D ec -13 D ec -14 D ec -15 D ec -16 D ec -17
Venezuelan Exports and Imports of Goods – Oil & Gas Exports vs. Total Imports (FOB, Balance of Payments) US$ mn
30000
E x p o rt s - O il & G a s
25000
I m p o rt s - T o t a l 20000
Note: Official trade data only goes up to Q3 2014 currently.
15000 10000 5000 0 Q 1 01
Q 1 02
Q 1 03
Q 1 04
Q 1 05
Q 1 06
Q 1 07
Q 1 08
Q 1 09
Q 1 10
Merchandise Trade US$ Billion
Forecast
35
120 Exports
100
30 25
Q 1 12
Q 1 13
Q 1 14
Q 1 15
Q 1 16
Foreign Currency Reserves and Current Account Balance Foreign Currency Reserves (US$bn) Consensus Forecasts for: End-2015 2.8 End-2016 2.2
Forecast
20
80 60
US$ Billion
Q 1 11
Trade Balance
15 Imports
10 5
40
0
20
-5
Current Account Balance
-10
0 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 © Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2015
'92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 23
COLOMBIA
DECEMBER 2015 Average
% Change on Previous Year
% Change, Dec-on-Dec
Annual Total
Merchan- Merchan- MerchanManufacdise dise dise turing Consumer Prices Trade Exports Imports ProducBalance (fob, (fob, tion (ex. US$bn) US$bn) (US$bn) coffee)
End Year Foreign Currency Reserves (IMF, US$bn)
Gross Domestic Product
Final Gross ConFixed sumption Investment
Producto Interno Bruto
Consumo Inversión Producción Exporta- Importa- Balanza Saldo en Reservas Precios al Final Bruta Manufac- Consumidor ciones de ciones de Comercial Cuenta de Divisas Mercancías Mercancías (US$bn) Corriente Extranjeras turera Fija (US$bn) (FMI,US$bn) (fab,US$bn) (fab,US$bn)
Current Account Balance (US$bn)
Economic Forecasters 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016
JP Morgan Chase Oxford Economics BTG Pactual Capital Economics Corficolombiana Fedesarrollo Larrain Vial XP Securities CESLA (Klein-UAM) Econ Intelligence Unit Citigroup HSBC ANIF IHS Economics BBVA BofA - Merrill Lynch
3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.5
2.2 2.8 2.4 2.5 2.8 2.7 2.3 3.2 3.1 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.7 2.4 1.8
2.8 3.0 2.4 3.0 3.3 2.6 3.4 3.5 2.8 na 3.2 na 3.0 3.1 2.5 2.8
1.8 1.8 1.5 2.8 3.0 2.8 1.7 -1.9 -3.0 2.0 1.5 0.5 2.7 2.9 3.2 2.2 1.1 2.6 3.0 2.7 2.5 3.5 4.5 4.5 2.9 2.9 3.8 na 4.5 3.0 3.2 na na na 4.2 4.5 1.7 4.4 5.1 3.0 4.7 5.1 1.9 2.7 5.1 1.6 0.0 -0.5
Consensus (Mean)
2.9
2.6
3.0 2.4
Last Month's Mean 3 Months Ago High Low Standard Deviation
2.8 2.9 3.0 2.5 0.1
2.6 2.9 3.2 1.8 0.3
2.9 3.0 3.5 2.4 0.3
Comparison Forecasts Corp Andina de Fomento (Dec. '15) IMF (Oct. '15) OECD (Jun. '15) ECLAC (Nov. '15)
3.0 2.5 3.3 2.9
2.9 2.8 3.7 3.1
2.9 2.8
2.6 2.7
2.4 2.2 2.8 2.8 2.7 3.1 3.5 4.7 5.1 1.6 -1.9 -3.0 0.7 1.9 2.3
1.5 2.8
na 1.5 na na -1.0 0.1 -0.4 0.0 na -0.7 na 1.6 0.6 -0.9 1.5 na
na 3.9 na na 2.5 4.0 0.5 3.0 na 1.5 na 5.2 2.2 1.4 7.3 na
6.5 na 6.3 6.9 6.2 6.3 6.3 6.0 6.9 6.5 6.3 6.3 6.7 6.1 6.7 6.7
3.9 na 3.9 4.0 4.5 4.2 3.5 4.2 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.3 4.0 4.6 4.2 3.9
0.2 3.2
6.5
4.1 41.3 43.8 53.7 53.2 -12.5
3.3 3.4 7.3 0.5 2.0
5.8 4.4 6.9 6.0 0.3
3.9 3.4 4.6 3.5 0.3
0.7 2.9
6.4 4.2
4.0 39.4 42.1 52.9 53.9 -13.5 -11.8 -17.4 -15.6 44.1 43.5 3.3 -20.0 -19.0
0.9 1.4 1.6 -1.0 1.0
3.0 3.6
² Latest GDP data show that Colombia is outpacing its regional peers after output rose by 3.2% (y-o-y) in Q3, up from 3.0% in the prior three months. Colombia’s economy has displayed strong resilience in spite of the sharp fall in global oil prices and drop in mining output. While the risks of a sharp slowdown in growth has receded, inflation pressures have risen as illustrated by the CPI accelerating to 6.4% (y-o-y) in November from 5.9% in October. This lends support to further monetary tightening following rate hikes at each of the last three meetings. ² Upbeat Q3 growth has lifted the full-year forecast for 2015 to 2.9% this month while inflation expectations have also strengthened for this year and next. Direction of Trade - 2014 Major Export Markets (% of Total) United States China Netherlands Venezuela 24
26.3 10.5 3.9 3.6
Major Import Suppliers (% of Total) United States China Mexico Germany
28.5 18.4 8.2 4.0
41.3 39.1 39.9 na 40.0 39.4 40.0 36.0 46.9 41.3 38.9 43.8 42.6 47.8 39.1 42.9
42.7 44.5 47.8 36.0 3.1
46.6 43.8 41.1 na 41.0 40.3 39.6 42.0 48.5 43.7 38.6 48.1 44.5 50.0 46.6 43.3
45.5 48.5 50.0 38.6 3.5
50.5 50.2 50.6 na 53.0 51.6 53.2 52.0 55.2 51.4 52.2 62.3 52.1 64.5 52.4 54.9
54.5 55.2 64.5 50.2 4.2
52.0 53.1 44.5 na 49.4 51.2 52.3 51.0 55.7 51.0 48.9 63.8 50.1 65.6 55.6 54.3
54.6 56.5 65.6 44.5 5.4
-9.3 -11.2 -10.7 na -13.0 -12.2 -13.2 -16.0 -8.3 -10.0 -13.3 -18.5 -9.6 -16.7 -13.3 -12.0
-5.5 -9.3 -3.4 na -8.3 -11.0 -12.7 -9.0 -7.2 -7.4 -10.3 -15.7 -5.6 -15.6 -9.0 -11.0
-16.9 -19.6 -17.6 na -19.6 -19.1 -21.3 -25.0 -15.9 -17.4 -20.2 -18.2 -18.4 -17.3 -19.0 -18.8
-13.8 -17.7 -10.3 na -15.6 -17.0 -21.0 -15.0 -13.9 -13.8 -17.1 -11.1 -16.5 -15.6 -17.0 -16.8
46.0 45.0 na na 43.0 na 46.7 44.0 42.0 46.2 47.5 47.1 44.6 52.6 47.2 na
44.5 44.7 na na 43.0 na 46.7 46.0 42.8 45.7 47.9 47.1 43.5 66.1 45.8 na
-9.4 -19.0 -15.5 46.0 47.0
-11.9 -9.0 -10.7 -8.0 -8.3 -3.4 -18.5 -15.7 2.9 3.5
-18.8 -19.1 -15.9 -25.0 2.2
-15.6 -16.3 -10.3 -21.0 2.7
45.9 45.2 52.6 42.0 2.7
46.6 44.8 66.1 42.8 6.2
Government and Background Data President - Mr. Juan Manuel Santos. Next Elections - 2018 (legislative); 2018 (presidential). Nominal GDP - Ps756,152bn (2014). Population 48.9 million (mid-year, 2014). Peso/US$ Exchange Rate - Ps1998.16=US$1 (average, 2014).
Historical Data 2011 2012 2013 2014 6.6 4.0 Gross Domestic Product* 5.5 4.8 Final Consumption* 19.0 4.7 Gross Capital Formation* 4.7 0.1 Manuf. Production (excl. coffee)* Consumer Prices, 3.7 2.4 (Dec/Dec) 58.3 61.6 Merchandise Exports, fob 1 52.1 56.6 Merchandise Imports, fob 1 (-) 6.1 5.0 Trade Balance, fob-fob 1 -9.7 -11.3 Current Account Balance 1 Foreign Currency Reserves, 29.9 34.9 excl. Gold & SDRs, end year 1 * average % change on previous year 1 in US$, billions
4.9 5.0 6.0 0.6
4.6 4.7 10.9 0.2
1.9 60.3 57.1 3.2 -12.4
3.7 57.0 61.6 -4.6 -19.6
41.2
44.9
© Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2015
DECEMBER 2015
PERU
Average
% Change, Annual Total End Year Dec-on-Dec Manufac- Consumer Merchan- Merchan- Merchan- Current Foreign Prices dise turing dise dise Account Currency Produc- (INEI, Lima Exports Imports Trade Balance Reserves Metropolition (fob, (fob, Balance (US$bn) (IMF, tan Area) US$bn) US$bn) (US$bn) US$bn)
% Change on Previous Year
Private Gross ConDomestic sumption Product
Gross Fixed Investment
Exporta- ImportaReservas Producto Consumo Inversión Producción Precios al Balanza Saldo en Manufac- Consumidor ciones de ciones de Comercial Cuenta de Divisas Bruta Privado Interno (INEI, Area Mercancías Mercancías Extranjeras turera Fija Bruto (US$bn) Corriente (fab, (fab, Metropolitana (FMI, (US$bn) US$bn) US$bn) de Lima) US$bn) Economic Forecasters
2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 20152016 2015 2016 2015 2016
CESLA (Klein-UAM) BTG Pactual Capital Economics Larrain Vial Scotiabank Inteligo SAB Citigroup JP Morgan Chase Econ Intelligence Unit HSBC BBVA BofA - Merrill Lynch Oxford Economics IHS Economics
3.5 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.3
4.0 3.8 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.2 3.6 3.3 2.8 3.0 3.9 2.5
4.5 3.5 3.0 3.6 3.5 3.8 3.5 3.9 3.6 3.3 3.3 2.6 2.6 3.0
4.3 3.3 3.2 3.4 3.5 4.0 3.5 3.7 4.0 3.3 3.0 1.5 3.6 3.3
-1.5 2.2 -4.7 3.7 -3.0 -1.0 -3.0 1.1 -4.5 -0.5 -4.0 0.5 na na -3.0 1.0 -5.2 4.3 -0.6 0.6 -6.1 0.1 -5.3 1.8 0.5 4.4 na na
na na na -1.9 -0.6 -0.9 na -0.6 na -3.0 na na 1.1 -1.1
na na na 1.7 0.4 2.1 na 4.5 na 4.1 na na 4.9 0.8
3.1 4.0 4.2 4.2 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.2 3.8 4.2 4.1 4.1 na 3.5
2.9 3.2 3.1 3.8 3.5 3.0 3.0 3.6 3.2 3.6 3.2 3.1 na 3.0
Consensus (Mean)
2.8
3.4
3.4
3.4
-3.4
-1.0 2.6
4.0
3.2 34.7 35.5 37.3 38.1 -2.5
Last Month's Mean 3 Months Ago High Low Standard Deviation
2.8 2.8 3.5 2.3 0.3
3.5 3.6 4.0 2.5 0.4
3.3 3.3 4.5 2.6 0.5
3.4 3.6 4.3 1.5 0.7
-3.1 1.2 -2.4 1.9 0.5 4.4 -6.1 -1.0 2.0 1.8
-0.3 0.8 1.1 -3.0 1.3
2.1 2.2 4.9 0.4 1.8
3.8 3.7 4.2 3.1 0.3
3.2 3.2 3.8 2.9 0.3
Comparison Forecasts Corp Andina de Fomento (Dec. '15) IMF (Oct. '15) ECLAC (Nov. '15)
2.7 2.4 2.7
3.1 3.3 3.4
3.5
3.5
-5.2
-2.1 -1.0
4.0 3.3
3.4 33.6 34.5 37.3 37.2 -3.6 2.5
1.5
4.1
² Peru’s central bank raised interest rates by 0.25% to 3.75% earlier this month following a similar move in September. Tighter monetary conditions stem from a bid to tame accelerating inflationary pressures. Latest data show that the CPI accelerated from 3.66% (y-o-y) in October to 4.17% last month. The weak Peruvian sol, which is down by around 13% against the US$ so far this year, has stoked inflationary pressures. With inflation exceeding the central bank’s 1.0-3.0% target range, the authorities have indicated a willingness to tighten more if necessary. ² The consensus is predicting inflation of 4.0% at the end of this year, although this is expected to drop back to 3.2% at the end of 2016. Direction of Trade - 2014 Major Export Markets (% of Total)
Major Import Suppliers (% of Total)
China China 18.3 United States United States 16.1 Brazil Canada 6.6 Ecuador Japan 4.1 © Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2015
21.0 21.0 4.7 4.2
38.2 36.2 na 34.1 34.1 39.9 33.4 34.3 32.5 35.6 33.5 33.2 33.1 33.4
35.2 36.0 39.9 32.5 2.2
39.8 39.4 na 33.8 35.6 41.9 35.6 36.0 36.4 37.4 32.8 31.8 28.7 31.8
37.1 38.2 41.9 28.7 3.7
39.5 37.7 na 36.4 36.9 40.6 37.3 37.2 34.6 38.7 36.7 37.2 36.1 35.8
38.0 38.5 40.6 34.6 1.6
40.2 40.1 na 34.8 38.1 41.5 37.6 38.0 37.9 41.0 36.7 37.5 38.8 33.4
39.1 39.8 41.5 33.4 2.3
-1.3 -0.4 -8.1 -1.5 -0.6 -7.7 na na na -2.3 -1.0 -6.8 -2.8 -2.5 -7.7 -0.6 0.4 -7.2 -3.9 -2.0 -8.6 -2.9 -2.0 -7.8 -2.1 -1.4 -7.1 -3.1 -3.6 -7.5 -3.2 -4.0 -7.3 -3.9 -5.7 -8.2 -3.1 -10.1 -10.4 -2.4 -1.7 -8.7
-7.2 -6.8 na -7.7 -7.5 -6.4 -8.1 -7.1 -7.2 -8.2 -8.1 -9.0 -9.9 -8.4
61.4 na na 60.0 62.3 58.9 60.5 61.2 52.0 58.6 na na 59.2 61.5
61.9 na na 57.0 62.7 57.7 59.5 58.7 51.8 57.5 na na 61.0 64.8
-2.7 -7.9 -7.8 59.6 59.3
-2.8 -2.0 -2.6 -1.6 -0.6 0.4 -3.9 -10.1 1.0 2.8
-7.9 -8.0 -6.8 -10.4 0.9
-7.5 -7.4 -6.4 -9.9 1.0
59.6 59.4 62.3 52.0 2.9
58.9 59.0 64.8 51.8 3.6
-2.7 -7.7 -7.0 60.0 60.0
Government and Background Data President - Mr. Ollanta Humala Next Elections - 2016 (presidential). Nominal GDP - S576.12bn (2014). Population - 30.77 million (mid-year, 2014). Sol/US$ Exchange Rate - 2.8357=US$1 (average, 2014).
Historical Data 2011 2012 2013 2014 Gross Domestic Product* Private Consumption* Gross Fixed Investment* Manufacturing Production* Consumer Prices, (Dec/Dec), INEI Lima Merchandise Exports, fob 1 Merchandise Imports, fob 1 (-) Trade Balance, fob-fob 1 Current Account Balance 1 Foreign Currency Reserves, excl. Gold & SDRs, end year 1
6.5 6.0 6.0 8.6
6.0 6.1 16.4 1.5
5.8 5.3 7.4 5.0
2.3 4.1 -2.1 -3.7
4.7 46.4 37.2 9.2 -3.2
2.6 47.4 41.1 6.3 -5.2
2.9 42.9 42.2 0.6 -8.5
3.2 39.5 40.8 -1.3 -8.0
61.2
63.2
60.1
46.1
* average % change on previous year
1
in US$, billions 25
ADDITIONAL COUNTRIES
DECEMBER 2015
Forecasts for a number of additional countries, shown below and opposite, were provided by the following leading economic forecasters:
BBVA Economist Intelligence Unit JP Morgan
BOLIVIA
Capital Economics HSBC
COSTA RICA
Historical Data
Population - 10.9mn (2014, mid-year)
Economy Nominal GDP - US$30.6bn (2013) Gross Domestic Product (annual average % change) Consumer Prices (December-on-December % change) Current Account (US Dollars, bn)
2011 5.2 6.9 0.1
Population - 4.9mn (2014, mid-year)
Economy Nominal GDP - US$49.6bn (2014) Gross Domestic Product (annual average % change) Consumer Prices (December-on-December % change) Current Account (US Dollars, bn)
ECUADOR
2011 4.4 4.7 -2.2
EL SALVADOR
26
2011 2.8 7.8 -4.4
2014 5.5 5.2 0.0
2012 5.3 4.6 -2.4
2013 3.4 3.7 -2.5
2012 2.6 3.9 -4.0
2013 4.8 3.9 -2.5
2011 7.9 5.4 -0.4
2012 5.6 4.2 -0.2
2013 4.6 2.7 -1.0
2014 3.5 5.1 -2.4
2012 1.9 0.8 -1.2
2013 1.8 0.8 -1.6
2016 4.0 5.2 -0.7
2015 2.6 0.6 -1.9
2016 3.3 3.3 -2.3
Consensus Forecasts 2014 7.3 1.6 -2.0
2015 5.8 2.4 -1.2
2016 4.9 3.1 -1.5
Consensus Forecasts 2014 3.7 3.7 -0.6
Historical Data 2011 2.2 5.1 -1.1
2015 4.1 4.4 -0.9
Consensus Forecasts
Historical Data
Population - 6.4mn (2014, mid-year)
Economy Nominal GDP - US$25.2bn (2014) Gross Domestic Product (annual average % change) Consumer Prices (December-on-December % change) Current Account (US Dollars, bn)
2013 6.8 6.5 1.1
Historical Data
Population - 16.0mn (2014, mid-year)
Economy Nominal GDP - US$100.5bn (2014) Gross Domestic Product (annual average % change) Consumer Prices (December-on-December % change) Current Account (US Dollars, bn)
2012 5.1 4.5 2.0
Consensus Forecasts
Historical Data
DOMINICAN REP Popn - 10.5mn (2014, mid-year) Economy Nominal GDP - US$64.0bn (2014) Gross Domestic Product (annual average % change) Consumer Prices (December-on-December % change) Current Account (US Dollars, bn)
Citigroup IHS Economics Oxford Economics
2015 0.5 3.6 -2.9
2016 0.4 3.4 -2.4
Consensus Forecasts 2014 2.0 0.5 -1.2
2015 2.3 0.2 -0.8
2016 2.3 1.6 -1.0
© Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2015
ADDITIONAL COUNTRIES
DECEMBER 2015
GUATEMALA
Economy Nominal GDP - US$58.7bn (2014) Gross Domestic Product (annual average % change) Consumer Prices (December-on-December % change) Current Account (US Dollars, bn)
HONDURAS
PARAGUAY
2011 6.2 8.0 -1.2
© Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2015
2014 4.2 2.9 -1.4
2012 4.1 5.4 -1.6
2013 2.8 4.9 -1.8
2012 5.1 6.6 -1.1
2013 4.5 5.7 -1.2
2011 11.8 6.3 -5.1
2012 9.2 4.6 -3.5
2013 6.6 3.7 -4.9
2014 3.1 5.8 -1.4
2012 -1.2 4.0 -0.5
2013 14.0 3.7 0.5
2014 4.7 6.5 -0.8
2012 3.3 7.5 -2.6
2013 5.1 8.5 -2.8
2015 3.4 4.1 -1.4
2016 3.4 5.0 -1.4
2015 4.1 4.7 -1.0
2016 4.3 6.1 -1.1
Consensus Forecasts 2014 6.1 2.6 -5.3
2015 5.8 0.9 -4.5
2016 5.9 2.4 -4.4
Consensus Forecasts 2014 4.7 4.2 -0.1
Historical Data 2011 5.2 8.6 -1.3
2016 3.5 3.4 -1.2
Consensus Forecasts
Historical Data 2011 4.3 4.9 0.1
2015 3.7 2.9 -0.9
Consensus Forecasts
Historical Data
Population - 3.4mn (2014, mid-year)
Economy Nominal GDP - US$57.5bn (2014) Gross Domestic Product (annual average % change) Consumer Prices (December-on-December % change) Current Account (US Dollars, bn)
2013 3.7 4.4 -1.4
Historical Data
Population - 6.9mn (2014, mid-year)
Economy Nominal GDP - US$31.0bn (2014) Gross Domestic Product (annual average % change) Consumer Prices (December-on-December % change) Current Account (US Dollars, bn)
URUGUAY
2011 3.8 5.6 -1.4
Population - 3.9mn (2014, mid-year)
Economy Nominal GDP - US$40.6bn (2013) Gross Domestic Product (annual average % change) Consumer Prices (December-on-December % change) Current Account (US Dollars, bn)
2012 3.0 3.4 -1.3
Consensus Forecasts
Historical Data
Population - 6.2mn (2014, mid-year)
Economy Nominal GDP - US$11.8bn (2014) Gross Domestic Product (annual average % change) Consumer Prices (December-on-December % change) Current Account (US Dollars, bn)
PANAMA
2011 4.2 6.2 -1.6
Population - 8.3mn (2014, mid-year)
Economy Nominal GDP - US$19.5bn (2014) Gross Domestic Product (annual average % change) Consumer Prices (December-on-December % change) Current Account (US Dollars, bn)
NICARAGUA
Historical Data
Population - 15.9mn (2014, mid-year)
2015 3.5 3.4 -0.1
2016 3.8 4.2 -0.2
Consensus Forecasts 2014 3.5 8.3 -2.5
2015 2.0 8.9 -2.3
2016 2.2 8.0 -2.1
27
FOREIGN EXCHANGE POLICIES
Currency
DECEMBER 2015 Argentinian Pesos / US$ (inverted scale)
Policies
A currency board operating between 1991-2001 (pegging the peso at Argentinian parity to the US$) was abandoned on January 5, 2002. In November Peso 2011, currency controls were introduced; the peso traded around 4.5/ US$. On January 23, 2014, the central bank let the peso devalue to around Ps8/US$ but controls were maintained. On December 16, 2015, capital controls were lifted and the peso was allowed to float freely. Bolivian Boliviano
The exchange rate is set by the central bank at daily auctions under a crawling peg scheme. The central bank's monetary objective is to preserve the internal purchasing power of the boliviano.
Brazilian Real
The real was introduced on July 1, 1994 and traded in an adjustable band until January 1999, when it was allowed to float independently.
Chilean Peso
Observado rate. Links to a fixed basket of currencies were abandoned in September 1999 and replaced with a floating exchange rate. The objective of the central bank is to ensure currency and price stability.
Colombian Peso
Prior to September 25, 1999, the peso traded within a crawling band system. It has since been allowed to float.
Costa Rican A crawling peg system. On October 16, 2006, the crawling peg was Colon modified and the colon was allowed to float within a currency band with upper and lower limits. Dominican Rep Peso
Managed float with a dual exchange rate until August 2004 (although in July 1998, exchange controls were relaxed to allow the official exchange rate - set by the central bank - to trade closer to the free market rate). Since August 2004, the peso is allowed to float freely.
Ecuadorian Sucre
The sucre was floated in February 1999. On January 9, 2000, the central bank announced plans to dollarize the economy, and the US$ replaced the sucre at the rate of Es25,000 = US$1 in March 2000.
2.70 3.70 Forecast 4.70 5.70 6.70 7.70 8.70 9.70 10.70 11.70 12.70 13.70 14.70 15.70 16.70 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16
Brazilian Reals / US$ (inverted scale) 1.50 Forecast 1.75 2.00 2.25 2.50 2.75 3.00 3.25 3.50 3.75 4.00 4.25 4.50 4.75 5.00 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16
Chilean Pesos / US$ (inverted scale) 440
El A monetary integration plan beginning January 1, 2001 introduced the Salvadorian US dollar as legal tender alongside the Salvadoran colón at the pegged Colón rate of colóns 8.75=US$1. Both the US$ and the colón are legal tender. Guatemalan Managed float. The rate is determined by transactions in the interbank Quetzal market.
560 620 680 740 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16
The exchange rate is determined in the foreign exchange auctions and the authorities ensure that all bids fall within a +/-7.0% band around the base price.
Mexican Peso
Managed float since the December 1994 devaluation; has now been converted into an independent float since July 2, 2001. The central bank aims for price stability via an annual inflation target of 3%, to be permanently maintained around a range of variation of +/-1%.
11.0
Crawling peg. 5.0% annual depreciation against the US$. There are no significant exchange or capital controls.
15.0
Panamanian The balboa has been pegged to the US$ at parity since 1904. Balboa Paraguayan Managed float in place since early 1998, with the central bank intervenGuarani ing to smooth out fluctuations. Peruvian Sol
The Peruvian new sol (re-denominated in July 1991) is allowed to float independently. The objective of the central bank is to preserve stability.
Uruguayan Independent float after crawling peg abandoned in June 2002. Peso Venezuelan Currency controls were imposed on January 22, 2003. On January 1, Bolívar 2008, three zeros were taken off the currency to create the “bolivar fuerte,” fixed at 2.1473/US$. On December 31, 2010, this was devalued to Bs4.2947/US$. On February 13, 2013, it was again devalued, to Bs6.2921/US$. This remains in place for necessary goods and the public sector, but the Sicad 2 rate (introduced March 24, 2014) was replaced by the Simadi (or Foreign Exchange Marginal System) rate on February 12, 2015, which a free-floating rate.
28
500
Honduran Lempira
Nicaraguan Córdoba
Forecast
Mexican Pesos / US$ (inverted scale) Forecast
12.0 13.0 14.0
16.0 17.0 18.0 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16
Venezuelan Bolivars / US$ (inverted scale)
1.00 Forecast 6.00 11.00 16.00 21.00 26.00 31.00 36.00 41.00 46.00 51.00 56.00 61.00 66.00 71.00 76.00 81.00 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16
© Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2015
FOREIGN EXCHANGE FORECASTS
DECEMBER 2015
The following foreign exchange forecasts represent the consensus (mean) estimates of those forecasters polled in our current survey. All rates are expressed as the amount of the respective currency per US dollar.
Foreign Exchange Rates against the US Dollar All rates are amount of national currency per US dollar
Consensus Forecasts
Historical Data Latest Rates at the end of: Forecast Percent Spot Rate End Mar. Change 2011 2012 2013 2014 (Dec. 14) 2016
Forecast Percent End Dec. change 2016
Forecast Percent End Dec. change 2017
4.284 4.898 6.518 8.465
9.785
14.17
-30.9
15.69
-37.6
17.80
-45.0
Bolivian Boliviano
6.910 6.910 6.910 6.910
6.900
6.910
-0.1
6.910
-0.1
6.910
-0.1
Brazilian Real
1.859 2.043 2.359 2.658
3.888
4.020
-3.3
4.152
-6.4
4.252
-8.6
Chilean Peso
521.5 478.6 525.8 606.9
712.3
709.8
+0.4
707.9
+0.6
694.3
+2.6
Colombian Peso
1943 1772 1930 237.7
3354
3086
+8.7
3072
+9.2
3109
+7.9
Costa Rican Colon
511.8 508.2 501.4 539.1
531.3
538.8
-1.4
544.9
-2.5
550.7
-3.5
Dominican Rep Peso
38.79 40.36 42.79 44.27
45.28
45.34
-0.1
45.27
0.0
45.36
-0.2
Ecuadorian Sucre
1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000
1.000
1.000
0.0
1.000
0.0
1.000
0.0
El Salvadorian Colon
8.750 8.748 8.750 8.746
8.743
8.750
-0.1
8.750
-0.1
8.750
-0.1
Guatemalan Quetzal
7.807 7.895 7.852 7.602
7.611
7.815
-2.6
7.965
-4.5
8.135
-6.4
Honduran Lempira
19.05 19.96 20.60 21.02
22.27
22.30
-0.1
22.50
-1.0
23.00
-3.2
Mexican Peso
13.99 13.01 13.10 14.74
17.39
16.80
+3.5
16.64
+4.5
16.37
+6.2
Nicaraguan Cordoba
22.98 24.12 25.32 26.59
27.86
28.00
-0.5
28.75
-3.1
29.80
-6.5
Panamanian Balboa
1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000
1.000
1.000
0.0
1.000
0.0
1.000
0.0
Argentinian Peso
Paraguayan Guarani
4440 4289 4595 4626
5812
5734
+1.4
5907
-1.6
6054
-4.0
Peruvian Sol
2.696 2.550 2.796 2.977
3.377
3.429
-1.5
3.492
-3.3
3.558
-5.1
Uruguayan Peso
19.90 19.40 21.39 24.05
29.81
30.09
-1.0
31.30
-4.8
32.65
-8.7
6.306
23.15
-72.8
70.00
-91.0
214.13
-97.1
199.78
260.7
-23.4
344.2
-42.0
556.7
-64.1
Ven. Bolivar - Essential gds 4.289 4.289 6.290 6.290 - Simadi US$ per barrel, end period
Cushing, Oklahoma – West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Spot Price FOB – US$ per barrel Europe – Brent Spot Price FOB – US$ per barrel
150 140
Daily Rates Since January 1, 2008
130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 J a n '0 8
J u l '0 8
J a n '0 9
J u l '0 9
J a n '1 0
A u g '1 0
F e b '1 1
DECEMBER 2015
F e b '1 2
A u g '1 2
F e b '1 3
S e p '1 3
M a r '1 4
S e p '1 4
M a r '1 5
S e p '1 5
OIL PRICE FORECASTS
Brent, US$ per barrel Range 1990-2015 Spot Rate (Dec. 7)
9.10 - 143.95 39.69
Brent December Survey
Forecast for End Mar. End Dec. 2016 2016
Mean Forecast
A u g '1 1
49.3
High Low Standard Deviation No. of Forecasts
54.6
60.5 72.2 40.0 45.0 4.2 5.8 58 59 Source: Consensus Forecasts, December 7, 2015 © Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2015
Oil Prices Lower For Longer Brent continued to hover below US$45 per barrel as the standoff between major oil producers contributes to the oil supply glut. Forecasts for March and December 2016 suggest that prices may only rise as far as US$54.6 in one year’s time – and certainly nowhere near pre-crisis levels. Brent slid even lower on December 7 to US$39.69 following OPEC’s decision to maintain its production ceiling. In addition, the strong US dollar makes it more expensive to hold crude oil positions. However, many oil analysts have noted that it is not just producers like Saudi Arabia which are holding firm in the face of low prices in order to increase market share. US shale producers have not cut back as much as the market had been expecting, and US oil output could even rise further in 2016. 29
QUARTERLY FORECASTS
DECEMBER 2015
Continued from page 3
Chile *
% change over same quarter of previous year
2014
2015
2016
2017
Qtr 3
Qtr4
Qtr 1
Qtr 2
Qtr 3
Qtr4
Qtr 1
Qtr 2
Qtr 3
Qtr4
Qtr 1
Qtr 2
Gross Domestic Product*
1.0
1.8
2.5
1.9
2.2
1.7
1.7
2.3
2.3
2.5
2.7
2.7
Manufacturing Production*
-2.0
0.9
-0.5
-0.3
0.3
-0.7
0.8
1.2
0.9
1.0
1.5
1.0
Consumer Prices*
4.7
5.3
4.4
4.2
4.8
4.3
4.4
3.9
3.3
3.2
3.1
3.1
Trade Balance (US$bn)
1.1
1.7
2.3
2.4
-0.6
0.1
0.8
0.9
-0.2
0.3
1.3
1.3
Current Account (US$bn)
-1.6
-0.7
0.5
0.0
-2.6
-1.1
-0.8
-0.8
-1.7
-0.8
-0.7
-0.8
Foreign Currency Reserves (US$bn)
38.4
38.9
37.0
36.8
36.8
37.8
37.9
37.8
37.8
38.0
38.1
38.2
The Chilean economy appears to be showing signs of a fledgling recovery in Q3 after real GDP growth picked up by 2.2% from a year earlier, bolstered by a recovery in domestic demand conditions. That said, the economic recovery remains sluggish, and low copper prices and weak external demand will likely continue to weigh on the outlook. Consequently, the authorities are keen to maintain accommodative monetary conditions even though borrowing costs have started to head upwards since October. High frequency indicators point to softness at the start of Q4 and the consensus suggests renewed weakness in the headline growth rate for this period (1.7%). Going further out, the recovery is expected to remain relatively subdued, with growth staying below the 3.0% mark throughout the forecast horizon. This mirrored the trend for manufacturing production over this period. On an upbeat note, inflation is projected to trend downwards over the coming quarters, although remaining above the central bank’s 3.0% mid-point target.
y-o-y % change
Quarterly Forecasts - Chile
6.0 Cons umer Pric e Inflation (% y -o-y )
5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 R eal G DP G ro w th
1.0
0.0 Q3 14
Q4
Q1 15
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1 16
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1 17
Q2
Mexico *
% change over same quarter of previous year
2014
2015
2017
Qtr 3
Qtr4
Qtr 1
Qtr 2
Qtr 3
Qtr4
Qtr 1
Qtr 2
Qtr 3
Qtr4
Qtr 1
Qtr 2
Gross Domestic Product*
2.3
2.6
2.5
2.3
2.6
2.2
2.3
3.0
2.7
3.0
3.2
3.0
Manufacturing Production*
3.5
4.7
3.2
3.1
2.9
2.8
3.1
3.7
3.2
3.4
3.4
3.4
Consumer Prices*
4.1
4.2
3.1
2.9
2.6
2.3
2.8
3.1
3.3
3.4
3.5
3.6
Trade Balance (US$bn)
-1.7
-0.8
-2.2
-1.9
-6.5
-3.1
-2.6
-2.5
-4.4
-4.4
-2.4
-1.9
Current Account (US$bn)
-3.1
-5.1
-8.3
-7.6
-8.9
-9.0
-9.2
-9.1
-8.5
-9.9
-9.6
-10.1
182.1 185.2 188.0
184.3
172.2 171.2 170.6 171.4 171.8 174.9
177.1
179.3
Foreign Currency Reserves (US$bn)
The Mexican recovery has experienced a challenging time consolidating this year, despite the government’s ambitious reform agenda designed to spur long-term growth potential. Like Latin America as a whole, Mexico has been adversely affected by falling commodity prices and the downturn in global demand, although not as badly as other regional economies. Indeed, growth rates of +2% and inflation of below 2.6% currently make Mexico the envy of beleaguered Argentina, Brazil and Venezuela. The economy is less exposed to Chinese headwinds and trade-oriented towards the US where consumer demand is holding up well. Indeed, our panel predicts that US-linked manufacturing production will jump by 3.7% (y-o-y) in Q2 2016. The country’s exposure to the US does present it with a conundrum, however: while inflation hovers at historic lows, the central bank has indicated it could raise interest rates the day after the Fed normalised monetary policy on December 16. This is necessary to support the peso which is under strong downward pressure. 30
2016
y-o-y Quarterly Forecasts - Mexico % change Consumer Price 4.5 Inflation
4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5
Real GDP Growth
2.0 1.5 Q3 14
Q4
Q1 15
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1 16
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1 17
Q2
© Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2015
DECEMBER 2015
QUARTERLY FORECASTS
Venezuela *
% change over same quarter of previous year
2014
2015
2016
2017
Qtr 3
Qtr4
Qtr 1
Qtr 2
Qtr 3
Qtr4
Qtr 1
Qtr 2
Qtr 3
Qtr4
Qtr 1
Qtr 2
Gross Domestic Product*
-2.3
-2.6
-6.5
-6.7
-9.1
-10.0
-4.3
-4.2
-2.7
-2.8
na
na
Consumer Prices*
57.5
61.3
91.9
108.4
135.2
161.8
185.2
208.0
188.0
161.8
na
na
Great uncertainty regarding the Venezuelan outlook is evident as the economy continues to collapse into even deeper crisis. Currency and capital controls, state mismanagement, widespread shor tages, spiralling hyperinflation, corruption and violent crime: all these factors contributed to the trouncing of the ruling PSUV party by the opposition in recent legislative elections. The task facing the new lawmakers is daunting as GDP is projected to continue contracting and inflation to remain in triple-digits. Against a backdrop of low commodity prices and sluggish external demand, Colombia’s economy has displayed remarkable resilience. Latest national accounts show growth of 3.2% (y-o-y) in Q3, up from 3.0% in Q2 and 2.8% in Q1. The latest GDP figure exceeds growth in the other major economies in the region. Going forward, the economy looks set to lose some momentum, with output slipping below 3.0% throughout the next five quarters. Persistently weak global oil prices are a source of downside growth risk to the economy and a further slide in crude recently (see oil forecasts on page 29) does not bode well for the economic outlook. Colombia’s economy is heavily reliant on oil export receipts to fund public spending. While growth is expected to weaken, inflationary pressures have intensified, owing to higher food prices and pass-through from a weak peso. The consensus outlook is for inflation to exceed 6.0% over the next three quarters, although prices should drop back sharply in the latter half of 2016.
y-o-y % change
Quarterly Forecasts - Peru
4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5
Consumer Price Inflation (% y-o-y)
Real GDP Growth
2.0 1.5 1.0
0.5 0.0 Q4
Q3 14
Q1 15
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1 16
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1 17
Q2
In Peru, Q3 growth was little changed from three months earlier after the economy advanced by 2.9% (y-o-y). Low metal prices and weak investment have weighed on growth in the past year but the economy is gradually starting to recover. Growth momentum is poised to pick-up in the second half of 2016 as new mines and the expansion of existing projects come on stream. However, the country faces tighter monetary conditions as rising inflation has contributed to higher borrowing costs since September.
Colombia *
2015
2014
% change over same quarter of previous year
2016
2017
Qtr 3 Qtr4 Qtr 1 Qtr 2 Qtr 3 Qtr4 Qtr 1 Qtr 2 Qtr 3 Qtr4 Qtr1 Qtr2
Gross Domestic Product*
4.2
3.4
2.8
3.0
3.2
2.6
2.3
2.2
2.4
2.5
3.3
3.3
Manufacturing Production (excl. coffee)*
-1.1
-0.8
-2.2
-1.3
2.3
2.9
2.5
5.6
4.0
3.6
4.7
2.2
Consumer Prices*
2.9
3.5
4.2
4.5
4.9
6.4
6.3
6.1
5.3
4.1
3.5
3.3
Current Account (US$bn)
-5.0
-6.3
-5.1
-4.3
-5.1
-5.5
-5.1
-4.9
-4.3
-4.7
na
na
Peru *
% change over same quarter of previous year
Gross Dom estic Product* M anufacturing Production* Consum er P rices*
2014 Qtr 3 1.7
2015
Qtr4 Qtr 1 Qtr 2 Qtr 3
2017
2016 Qtr4 Qtr 1 Qtr 2 Qtr 3
Qtr4 Qtr 1
Qtr2
0.9
1.8
3.0
2.9
2.9
2.8
2.7
3.4
3.7
3.9
4.0
-3.8 -10.0
-5.1
-0.2
-2.3
2.5
2.2
0.8
1.9
2.6
1.9
2.3
3.0
3.3
3.8
4.0
4.2
3.9
3.7
3.3
3.2
3.0
2.9
3.2
Trade Balance (US$bn)
-0.2
0.0
-1.0
-0.9
-0.9
0.3
-0.4
-0.9
-0.7
0.3
na
na
Current Account (US $bn)
-1.6
-1.3
-2.5
-1.6
-2.4
-1.1
-2.7
-2.3
-2.4
-1.1
na
na
Foreign Currency Reserves (US$bn)
62.1
60.1
59.2
57.8
59.3
61.9
61.5
61.6
61.2
61.4
61.8
62.2
© Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2015
31
LATIN AMERICAN CONSENSUS FORECASTS: WORLD ECONOMIC ACTIVITY DECEMBER 2015 December Survey Argentina Bolivia Brazil Chile Colombia Costa Rica Dominican Republic Ecuador El Salvador Guatemala Honduras Mexico Nicaragua Panama Paraguay Peru Uruguay Venezuela
Real GDP
Consumer Prices
Current Account
% increase
% increase (Dec/Dec)
Balance, US$bn
2014
2015
2016
2014
2015
2016
2014
2015
2016
0.5
1.1
-0.2
23.9
19.0
31.8
-5.9
-11.9
-8.1
5.5
4.1
4.0
5.2
4.4
5.2
0.0
-0.9
-0.7
0.1
-3.5
-2.2
6.4
10.4
6.6
-104.1
-64.8
-42.2
1.9
2.1
2.2
4.6
4.4
3.4
-3.0
-2.3
-2.9
4.6
2.9
2.6
3.7
6.5
4.1
-19.6
-19.0
-15.5
3.5
2.6
3.3
5.1
0.6
3.3
-2.4
-1.9
-2.3
7.3
5.8
4.9
1.6
2.4
3.1
-2.0
-1.2
-1.5
3.7
0.5
0.4
3.7
3.6
3.4
-0.6
-2.9
-2.4
2.0
2.3
2.3
0.5
0.2
1.6
-1.2
-0.8
-1.0
4.2
3.7
3.5
2.9
2.9
3.4
-1.4
-0.9
-1.2
3.1
3.4
3.4
5.8
4.1
5.0
-1.4
-1.4
-1.4
2.3
2.4
2.8
4.1
2.4
3.3
-24.0
-32.8
-33.3
4.7
4.1
4.3
6.5
4.7
6.1
-0.8
-1.0
-1.1
6.1
5.8
5.9
2.6
0.9
2.4
-5.3
-4.5
-4.4
4.7
3.5
3.8
4.2
3.4
4.2
-0.1
-0.1
-0.2
2.3
2.8
3.4
3.2
4.0
3.2
-8.0
-7.9
-7.8
3.5
2.0
2.2
8.3
8.9
8.0
-2.5
-2.3
-2.1
-3.7
-8.3
-4.1
64.7
184.2
179.2
7.6
-9.7
-5.9
Latin America1 LatAm ex. Venezuela
1.0
-1.0
-0.1
13.0
26.4
25.6
-174.8
-166.3
-133.9
1.5
-0.1
0.4
7.0
7.9
7.6
-182.4
-156.7
-128.0
North America2 Western Europe3 Asia/Pacific4 Eastern Europe5
2.4
2.4
2.5
1.6
0.2
1.7
-431
-502
-515
1.3
1.7
1.8
0.7
0.1
1.1
424
432
422
1.7
2.0
401
663
642
8.4
6.0
6.4
17.6
6.3
4.8
4.6
4.6
2.7
1.8
-0.1
1.7
7.0
1
Includes countries listed above. 2USA and Canada. 3Germany, France, the United Kingdom, Italy, Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, Greece, Ireland, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden and Switzerland. 4Fifteen countries taken from the latest issue of Asia Pacific Consensus Forecasts. 5 Nineteen countries, including the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Russia and Turkey, taken from the latest issue of Eastern Europe Consensus Forecasts. Regional totals, as well as the grand total, for GDP and inflation are weighted averages calculated using 2014 GDP weights, converted at average 2014 exchange rates. Forecasts for North America and Western Europe are taken from the latest monthly issue of Consensus Forecasts. Inflation figures for non-Latin American regions shown above are annual average % changes except Russia. © Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2015
SUBSCRIPTION FORM Please enter my subscription to Latin American Consensus Forecasts. My cheque for payment (US$593 or £353 or Euro 513 for twelve monthly issues, payable to Consensus Economics Inc.) is attached. My address is as shown below: NAME COMPANY ADDRESS
COUNTRY
POST/ZIP CODE
TELEPHONE
FAX
Return this form to:
32
SIGNATURE Consensus Economics Inc., 53 Upper Brook St, London W1K 2LT, United Kingdom Tel: (44 20) 7491 3211 Fax: (44 20) 7409 2331
See www.consensuseconomics.com for a description of our other products and services. 12/15 LACF © Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2015