Effects of E-Commerce on Markets (Equilibrium & Existence) Kaipichit Ruengsrichaiya (ไกรพิชิต เรืองศรีไชยะ)
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1858843
Main Questions • What are the effects of e-‐commerce in economic ac1vi1es, par1cularly transac1on? • Supposed, e-‐commerce enhances the technological efficiency, does it improve economic efficiency in markets? How? • If it does improve, how? and what are the necessary condi1ons? Kaipichit Ruengsrichaiya (c) Copyright NOT Allowed To Copy & Distribute
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Outline • First Part : Review & Discussion – Summary of the technological effects of the e-‐commerce and internet from economic perspec1ve – Review on early models of e-‐commerce & Discussion on the effects of e-‐commerce on the markets Kaipichit Ruengsrichaiya (c) Copyright NOT Allowed To Copy & Distribute
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Outline • Second Part : Analysis & Models
– Linear Loca1on Model – Circular Loca1on Model – Applica1on to E-‐Commerce Modelling & Analysis
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First Part : e Effects • Technological Effects (Upside) – b/c lower cost of semi-‐conductors – b/c expansion of personal computers – b/c expansion of interconnec1on infrastructure (internet, func1onal soSware, entertaining apps) Kaipichit Ruengsrichaiya (c) Copyright NOT Allowed To Copy & Distribute
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First Part : e Effects • Technological Effects (Upside) (con1nued) – THEN lower cost and price of ‘digitalized lifestyle’, especially on informa1on processing (communica1on, replica1on, gathering , etc.) – THEN : Lower (get rid of?) the physical limits (1me & space) in people’s interac1on
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First Part : e Effects • Economic Effects – Organiza1on (non-‐market) : enhance efficiencies within a firm (facilita1ons on communica1ons, opera1onal -‐ admin – managerial tasks etc.) : PRODUCTION – Market : enhance market efficiency for communica1on and decision making of market par1cipants => Lower Transac1on Cost : EXCHANGE Kaipichit Ruengsrichaiya (c) Copyright NOT Allowed To Copy & Distribute
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First Part : e Effects • Discussion : Any downsides? Bad Experiences? – Technological Effects ? – Economic Effects ? How do they harm our society and economic benefit in both direct and indirect ways? Any CauBons? Kaipichit Ruengsrichaiya (c) Copyright NOT Allowed To Copy & Distribute
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First Part : Some Questions • Incen1ve : Economic Agents (consumers, producers, firms, investors, government) try to make use of informa1on technology and e-‐ commerce for their own benefits – In e-‐commerce, can digitalized ac1vi1es replace the tradi1onal – physical ones? – As a society, do we gain from e-‐commerce collec1vely?
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First Part : Scope • We consider ‘effects of e-‐commerce on markets’
Ø We then need to understand the basic funcBons of a market and its parBcipaBons of economic agents. Ø Then we consider how e-‐commerce can improve its efficiency. Kaipichit Ruengsrichaiya (c) Copyright NOT Allowed To Copy & Distribute
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First Part : Market Functions • BASIC FLOW of the linkage from produc1on to consump1on : Each step adds cost “TransacBon Cost”
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First Part : Market Functions • Wholesaler and Retailer serve as INTERMEDIARY between Producer and Consumer • They incur transac1on cost which is paid by consumer • What if e-‐commerce can short-‐cut the intermediary and/or lower the transac1on cost ? Kaipichit Ruengsrichaiya (c) Copyright NOT Allowed To Copy & Distribute
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First Part : Market Functions • When transac1on cost reduces . . . • For each unit of a product – Producer receive higher (bid) price (produce more) – Consumer pay lower (ask) price (consume more)
Ø Basically, economic welfare improves Kaipichit Ruengsrichaiya (c) Copyright NOT Allowed To Copy & Distribute
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First Part : Market Functions
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First Part : Market Functions • CLOSER LOOK on market transac1ons Summary of Market Func1ons (3 steps to complete an economic transac1on) 1. Matching Buyers and Sellers 2. Facilita1on of Transac1ons 3. Ins1tu1onal Infrastructure Kaipichit Ruengsrichaiya (c) Copyright NOT Allowed To Copy & Distribute
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First Part : Market Functions Step 1 : Iden1fica1on
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First Part : Market Functions Step 2 : Facilita1on
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First Part : Market Functions Step 3 : Verifica1on
Ques1on : Where and How does e-‐commerce can enhance the market func1ons ? Any limita1ons and possible difficul1es ? Kaipichit Ruengsrichaiya (c) Copyright NOT Allowed To Copy & Distribute
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First Part : Roles of E-Commerce • E-‐Commerce could help on – Informa1on gathering on • product qualifica1on and its offering • iden1fying where sellers & buyers are (loca1on & logis1cs) • price comparisons
– Providing choices of logis1cs and seelement
• It lowers search cost & transacBon cost Kaipichit Ruengsrichaiya (c) Copyright NOT Allowed To Copy & Distribute
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First Part : Roles of E-Commerce • E-‐Commerce can also create problems – Trust the informa1on of the product – price ? – What if something wrong ? • Sending wrong or damage products • Charging higher price than shown • Product does not arrive as agreed (product qualifica1on, 1ming etc.)
• E-‐Commerce has Trust & Legal Infrastructure issues . . . However . . . Problems vary among people & socie1es. Kaipichit Ruengsrichaiya (c) Copyright NOT Allowed To Copy & Distribute
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Second Part : Analysis & Models o Linear City Model o Circular City Model o Application for Analysis of E-Commerce Market
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Second Part : Linear City Model • Linear City Model captures the essence of “Product Differen1a1on” – Loca1on Difference – Taste difference : No product has beeer quality. Consumers just have different taste / preferences
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Second Part : Linear City Model Model : Horizontal Differen1a1on Consider “Linear City” of length 1 unit (normalized) – Two shops located at two ends (at “x” = 0 and “x” = 1) – Consumers are equally distributed along the city – Consumer has to ‘travel’ to one of two shops to buy a product. The transporta1on cost is “t” – Each consumer wants only 1 unit of product – Let p 1 , p 2 denote price charged by shop 1 and 2 respec1vely Kaipichit Ruengsrichaiya (c) Copyright NOT Allowed To Copy & Distribute
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Second Part : Linear City Model
No,ce : a consumer located at “x” has a travel cost to each shop as shown in figure above – Let s denote the surplus enjoyed by each consumer when he consumes a product – The price of going to shop 1 (and respec1vely shop 2) for a consumer located at “x” is p 1 + tx (and p 2 + t (1 − x ) at shop 2 respec1vely) Kaipichit Ruengsrichaiya (c) Copyright NOT Allowed To Copy & Distribute
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Second Part : Linear City Model – U1lity from consuming at shop 1 : s − p1 − tx – U1lity from consuming at shop 2 : s − p2 − t (1 − x) – Total number of consumer on this city is “N”
We then consider the situa1on where the prices are not too high and all consumers will buy from either shop 1 or shop 2 Kaipichit Ruengsrichaiya (c) Copyright NOT Allowed To Copy & Distribute
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Second Part : Linear City Model
– There exist a consumer with loca1on x% who is indifferent between buying from shop 1 and shop 2 Kaipichit Ruengsrichaiya (c) Copyright NOT Allowed To Copy & Distribute
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Second Part : Linear City Model So the demand of shop 1 depends on price set by shop 2 and vice versa. We can know the demand from each shop by studying the consumer who is indifferent between two shops ( p2 − p1 − t ) p1 + tx%= p2 + t (1 − x% ) ⇔ x% ( p1 , p2 ) = 2t D1 ( p1 , p2 ) = Nx% ( p1 , p2 )
D2 ( p1 , p2 ) = N [1 − x% ( p1 , p2 )]
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Second Part : Linear City Model To consider the equilibrium pricing of two shops, we ASSUME – QuadraBc TransportaBon Cost – Normalize Total Demand (N) to be 1 Demand of each shop is following
p1 + tx 2 = p2 + t (1 − x) 2 ⇔ x( p1 , p2 ) =
( p2 − p1 + t ) 2t
( p2 − p1 + t ) D1 ( p1 , p2 ) = x( p1 , p2 ) = 2t ( p − p2 + t ) D2 ( p1 , p2 ) = 1 − x( p1 , p2 ) = 1 2t Kaipichit Ruengsrichaiya (c) Copyright NOT Allowed To Copy & Distribute
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Second Part : Linear City Model – Profit func1on of Firm ‘i’ is
Πi ( pi , p j ) = ( pi − c)( p j − pi + t ) / 2t – Firm ‘i’ chooses its own price to maximize profit given its compe1tor’s price. Its FOC is following, for both firms ‘i = 1, 2’ :
p j + c + t − 2 pi = 0
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Second Part : Linear City Model – Using symmetry of the problem, Nash Equilibrium prices and profits are following p1∗ = p2∗ = c + t Π1 = Π 2 = t
2
Price is equal to cost of “produc(on (c)+ transporta(on (t)”
All consumers will travel to either shop 1 or shop 2 and pay the price charged regardless of individual transporta1on cost. Each seller enjoys Local Monopoly Power to put mark-‐up equal to “t” Kaipichit Ruengsrichaiya (c) Copyright NOT Allowed To Copy & Distribute
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Second Part : Linear City Model • No,ce : We talk about product differen1a1on, while they are physically iden1cal. • The differen1a1on is reflected by distance and transporta1on cost (t) from consumer’s perspec1ve. When transporta1on cost is higher, the products are more differen1ated for consumers !! • Horizontal Produc1on Differen1a1on is about TASTE & ABILITY TO SUBSTITUTE Kaipichit Ruengsrichaiya (c) Copyright NOT Allowed To Copy & Distribute
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Second Part : Circular City Model • Extension of Linear City is “Circular City” – “Fixed Cost (f)” of Entry into the market/city – Circumference of the Circular City Model is normalized to 1 unit (similar to Linear City) – Circular City Model accommodate ‘many sellers’ to capture the idea of brand prolifera1on (taste & product differen1a1on.) Kaipichit Ruengsrichaiya (c) Copyright NOT Allowed To Copy & Distribute
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Second Part : Circular City Model
ASSUME – Once entry and incur fixed cost, sellers are symmetrically distributed. In fact, each firm has only 2 real compeBtors – The city has ‘n’ firms. Distance between 2 firms is ‘1/n’
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Second Part : Circular City Model
– Suppose that, firm ‘i’ chooses price p i . A consumer located at distance x ∈ [0, (1/ n )] from this firm will be indifferent between buying from it and from its closest neighbor if pi + tx = p + t[(1/ n) − x] Kaipichit Ruengsrichaiya (c) Copyright NOT Allowed To Copy & Distribute
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Second Part : Circular City Model – The demand of firm ‘i’ is following p + (t / n) − pi Di ( pi , p) = 2 x = t
– Its profit is following
( pi − c) Di − f Again, this firm will choose price to maximize his profit using the same Nash Equilibrium pricing strategy. Kaipichit Ruengsrichaiya (c) Copyright NOT Allowed To Copy & Distribute
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Second Part : Circular City Model – To characterize NE price, we differen1ate profit func1on with respect to p i and set p i = p . – The equilibrium price (of all firms) is following p =c+
t n
No1ce : Profit margin decreases with ‘n’ (number of firms on the city)
– Number of firms is determined by “zero-‐profit condi1on” 1 t ( p − c) − f = 2 − f = 0 n n Kaipichit Ruengsrichaiya (c) Copyright NOT Allowed To Copy & Distribute
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Second Part : Circular City Model – Equilibrium number of firms and price (of all firms) are n∗ =
t f
p∗ = c + tf
Note : We will use similar idea and methodology to study the equilibrium prices and existence of e-‐ commerce market Kaipichit Ruengsrichaiya (c) Copyright NOT Allowed To Copy & Distribute
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Second Part : Circular City Model • AGAIN!! The differen1a1on is reflected by distance and transporta1on cost (t) from consumer’s perspec1ve. When transporta1on cost is higher, the products are more differen1ated for consumers !! – Horizontal Differen1a1on : difference in loca1on is the difference in taste and the transporta1on cost is the compensa(on (ie. money or u1lity) for the difference in taste – More firms on the circular city induces closer distance between two adjacent firms and reflects “more similarity” of the product Kaipichit Ruengsrichaiya (c) Copyright NOT Allowed To Copy & Distribute
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Modeling E-Commerce Market • We know Ø EC reduces cost of produc1on and exchange, including transporta1on cost Ø Market composes of sellers and buyers and the equilibrium prices • Seller must decide to enter the market and sell • Buyer must decides to buy and pay the offered price • Equilibrium price is seeled when demand is equal to supply Kaipichit Ruengsrichaiya (c) Copyright NOT Allowed To Copy & Distribute
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Modeling E-Commerce Market Important Ques1ons (incen1ve & market => existence & equilibrium) • If a consumer can buy via EC with cheaper cost & price, why do we s1ll have ‘normal markets’? • If seller know EC will reduce his sale volume in normal market, why do they s1ll invest in and use EC as a second channel ? • More importantly, what is the difference in pricing strategy of a seller between TWO selling methods under compe11ve pressure from other sellers? What is the equilibrium price in each market (normal & EC) ? Kaipichit Ruengsrichaiya (c) Copyright NOT Allowed To Copy & Distribute
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Modeling E-Commerce Market Model Selng : Consumer – two choices of shopping : Normal & EC – normal market is circular city with 1 unit length with transporta1on cost ‘t’ – ‘N’ consumers are equally distributed around city – U1lity from 1 unit of product is ‘u’ – In normal market, he pays transporta1on cost ‘t x’ ; where ‘x’ is distance to the nearest seller – In E-‐Commerce market, he pays shipping cost ‘s’ ; assuming ‘s < t’ Kaipichit Ruengsrichaiya (c) Copyright NOT Allowed To Copy & Distribute
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Modeling E-Commerce Market Model Selng : Consumer (con1nued) – in current technology, there is the RISK from shopping on E-‐Commerce market (e.g. internet fraud, difficul1es of online shopping, security) – among ‘N’ consumers, each one will decide where to buy 1 unit of product between normal and EC market and each consumer has different degree of subs1tu1on between normal and EC shopping. – This degree of subs1tute tells how much reduc1on in u1lity from buying the product from EC market, denoted by θ i ∈[0,1] Kaipichit Ruengsrichaiya (c) Copyright NOT Allowed To Copy & Distribute
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Modeling E-Commerce Market Model Selng : Consumer (con1nued) – Let p denote price on normal market and p denote price e on EC nmarket – Let denote net u1lity from 1 unit consump1on of vi consumer ‘i’ with degree of subs1tu1on θi – Since , means consumer ‘a’ is indifferent θi ∈n[0,1] = 1EC shopping, while means between ormal θaand θb =s0ubs1tute consumer ‘b’ thinks that EC shopping cannot the normal shopping and he has not u1lity from EC shopping Kaipichit Ruengsrichaiya (c) Copyright NOT Allowed To Copy & Distribute
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Modeling E-Commerce Market Model Selng : Consumer (con1nued) – Net u1lity of consumer ‘i’ from 1 unit of product where he chooses between two methods / markets is following
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Modeling E-Commerce Market
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Modeling E-Commerce Market Model Selng : Seller / Producer – a firm starts with decision to sell in normal market (circular city) and the charged price when there are ‘M’ firms in the equilibrium entry – Ini1ally, normal market, fixed cost of entry is ‘F’ and marginal cost of product is ‘c’. Total cost of selling ‘q’ units in normal market is : ‘F + cq’ – ASer entering the normal (circular city) market, a firm decides to enter into EC market Kaipichit Ruengsrichaiya (c) Copyright NOT Allowed To Copy & Distribute
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Modeling E-Commerce Market Model Selng : Seller / Producer (con1nued) – If enter into EC market, firm ‘j’ pays fixed cost of having e-‐ storefront, denoted by f j ∈ [ f L , f H ] – selling on EC market can save marginal marke1ng cost per unit of product. Since c = c% + m % , marginal cost of product ;(c%< c) on EC market is just c%
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Modeling E-Commerce Market Model Selng : Seller / Producer (con1nued) – The cost structure of firm ‘j’ for selling a product in each method is following
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Modeling E-Commerce Market
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Modeling E-Commerce Market Results : Market without E-‐Commerce
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Modeling E-Commerce Market • Proof of Lemma 1 (Equilibrium without EC) – Follow the equilibrium entry and pricing in circular city model, but we include the effect of market size (number of consumers ‘N’) in equilibrium.
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Modeling E-Commerce Market
– To find the demand for firm ‘j’, we find distance ‘x’ that the consumer at ‘x’ is indifferent between buying from two sellers surrounding him when there are ‘M’ firms in the normal market (circular city)
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Modeling E-Commerce Market
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Modeling E-Commerce Market
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Modeling E-Commerce Market
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Modeling E-Commerce Market – The equilibrium number of firms and market price in normal market with ‘N’ consumers is following
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Modeling E-Commerce Market Results : Market without E-‐Commerce (Con1nued)
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Modeling E-Commerce Market Ques,on : Why does equilibrium price decrease when market size increases (more consumers in the market) ?
Logic In circular city, if market size (‘N’) increases, each firm
can sell more and have higher profit. Ø This high profit aeracts new firm to enter the market. Then market has more firms and each of them locates ‘more closer’ to each other. Ø Distance between firms decreases, hence local monopoly falls down and equilibrium price also decreases. Kaipichit Ruengsrichaiya (c) Copyright NOT Allowed To Copy & Distribute
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Modeling E-Commerce Market Results : Market with E-‐Commerce – If a firm ini1ates EC market by inves1ng a fixed cost for electronic storefront f j ∈ [ f L , f H ] , some consumers with high level of product subs1tu1on will migrate to EC and leave the normal market – So there is a level of market subs1tu1on θ ∗ at which the consumer is indifferent between two methods of shopping – Consumers with higher degree of subs1tu1on θ ∗ ≤ θ i will buy in EC market and ones with lower degree θ k < θ ∗ buy from stores in normal market Kaipichit Ruengsrichaiya (c) Copyright NOT Allowed To Copy & Distribute
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Modeling E-Commerce Market
– Number of consumers buying in normal market decreases => Some sellers will go out of business – We need to reconsider the equilibrium price and number of firms in normal market and also recover equilibrium price in EC market Kaipichit Ruengsrichaiya (c) Copyright NOT Allowed To Copy & Distribute
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Modeling E-Commerce Market – When we have EC market, number of consumers in normal market is θ ∗ N – We use the same method to find equilibrium price in normal market (circular city). The profit maximiza1on of firm ‘j’ is following
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Modeling E-Commerce Market
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Modeling E-Commerce Market
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Modeling E-Commerce Market • If there is a firm to ini1ate EC market (launch electronic storefront to sell online), it must be the firm with lowest fixed cost ( f L ) • When there are more than one firm selling in EC, each firm has equal market share of total consumers in EC market ( (1 − θ ∗ )N ) • Consumers in EC market pay the same price and equal shipping cost (‘s’) in all EC seller Kaipichit Ruengsrichaiya (c) Copyright NOT Allowed To Copy & Distribute
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Modeling E-Commerce Market • To find the size of EC market, we need to discover θ ∗ ∗ θ • We find it by using the fact that consumer at would be indifferent between two methods of buying. His net u1lity from each method is equal
v EC = v Normal
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Modeling E-Commerce Market
– This is the total demand in EC market to be shared by all EC sellers. – Suppose the number of EC seller is ‘g’ Kaipichit Ruengsrichaiya (c) Copyright NOT Allowed To Copy & Distribute
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Modeling E-Commerce Market • The profit maximiza1on of EC seller and its necessary condi1on to set online price are following
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Modeling E-Commerce Market
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Modeling E-Commerce Market ⎛ m%− s ⎞ Since, m % > ⎜ 2 ⎟ the EC price is lower!! ⎝ ⎠
• To find the EC market share (θ ∗ ) and the minimum market size (‘N’) to have both normal and EC market together, we consider the non-‐zero profit condi1on of the seller with lower online fixed cost ( f L ) Kaipichit Ruengsrichaiya (c) Copyright NOT Allowed To Copy & Distribute
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Modeling E-Commerce Market
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Modeling E-Commerce Market
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Modeling E-Commerce Market
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Modeling E-Commerce Market
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Modeling E-Commerce Market
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Modeling E-Commerce Market Effects of E-‐Commerce on Product Market : Both Normal and E-‐Commerce Markets
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Modeling E-Commerce Market
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Modeling E-Commerce Market Another Important Result : Comparing Prices, EC Market improves economic efficiency !!
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Empirical Evidence & Support
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Empirical Evidence & Support
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Empirical Evidence & Support
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Empirical Evidence & Support
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Empirical Evidence & Support
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ank you
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