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Controlling class size to manage enrollment decline of secondary schools
Ma, Jo-zin.; 馬晉修. Ma, J. [馬晉修]. (2012). Controlling class size to manage enrollment decline of secondary schools. (Thesis). University of Hong Kong, Pokfulam, Hong Kong SAR. Retrieved from http://dx.doi.org/10.5353/th_b5025562 2012
http://hdl.handle.net/10722/184375
The author retains all proprietary rights, (such as patent rights) and the right to use in future works.
Controlling Class Size to Manage Enrollment Decline of Secondary Schools
Ma Jo Zin 2010935631
Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Public Administration Department of Politics and Public Administration University of Hong Kong
Supervised by Dr Helen Liu
June 2012
DECLARATION
I declare that this dissertation is my own work, except where due acknowledgement has been made in the text or in the footnotes, and that this dissertation has not been previously included in a thesis, dissertation or report submitted to this University or any other institutions for any academic qualifications.
1
ABSTRACT
In the recent decade or so, the phenomenon of enrollment decline of secondary schools has been clearly observed in Hong Kong.
The significance of this
phenomenon has grown over time such that the number of public sector schools has had to be reduced.
Meanwhile, an alternative to school closure is to reduce the class
size of schools which is however not less controversial.
On the surface, the
arguments against class size reduction include perceived extra cost per student and ineffectiveness of small class teaching in secondary schools.
Hidden in the agenda
of the Government could be, arguably, the political difficulty to reverse such class size reduction trend when the enrollment rebounds eventually.
This dissertation reviews how the Government has reacted to the changing situation and developing public concern on the issue, and cautiously evaluates the effectiveness of the Government’s responses.
Then, this dissertation explores the
literature in public administration in relation to school retrenchment policies, and hence addresses the Hong Kong case accordingly.
Finally, recommendations are
made along with rationale for the betterment of managing enrollment decline by means of controlled class size subject to a mechanism to be agreed on.
In making
these recommendations, it is hoped that the policy direction should point to the future, with an aim to look for positive management opportunities while solving problematic phenomenon at the same time.
2
TABLE OF CONTENTS Page DECLARATION
1
ABSTRACT
2
TABLE OF CONTENTS
3
Chapter 1
Introduction
5
1.1
Trend of number of students & number of births
9
1.2
Trend of number of students & class size
12
1.3
Problem definition by Government
14
1.4
Government responses
14
1.4.1 Relaxation of criterion for approving classes
14
1.4.2 Voluntary Optimisation of Class Structure Scheme
16
Effectiveness of the Scheme
17
1.5.1 Overall effectiveness
18
1.5.2 Overall responses
18
Literature Review
21
2.1
Nature of decline
21
2.2
Theoretical framework of retrenchment policies
23
2.2.1 Substantive retrenchment policies
26
2.2.2 Process retrenchment policies
27
Model of environmental change & institutional response
29
2.3.1 Erosion
33
2.3.2 Contraction
33
2.3.3 Dissolution
34
2.3.4 Collapse
34
Managerial opportunities of decline
34
Review of Secondary Data
37
Small class teaching
37
3.1.1 Situation in other developed economies
37
3.1.2 Local situation
41
1.5
Chapter 2
2.3
2.4 Chapter 3 3.1
3
3.2
Children of Mainland mothers
43
3.2.1 Proportion of children of Mainland mothers
46
residing in Hong Kong 3.2.2 Factors for children of Mainland mothers
48
residing in Hong Kong Chapter 4
Discussion
51
4.1
Nature of decline: Hong Kong case
51
4.2
Theoretical framework of retrenchment policies
53
4.2.1 Substantive retrenchment policies
57
4.2.2 Process retrenchment policies
59
4.3
Model of environmental change & institutional response
60
4.4
Managerial opportunities of decline
63
Conclusion
65
5.1
Principal findings
65
5.2
Suggestions
67
5.3
Rationale of suggestions
68
5.4
Mechanism to increase flexibility of class size
70
5.5
Assumptions of study
72
5.6
Limitations of study
74
Chapter 5
BIBLIOGRAPHY
78
4
Chapter 1
Introduction
In recent years, there have been continuing debates in Hong Kong on whether or not to adopt small class teaching (SCT) by schools.
Since SCT was widely
adopted by primary schools in 2009, the focus of discussion has gradually turned to the secondary education.
While advocates argue that SCT is intrinsically beneficial
for students, some also suggest that the policy may represent a good way to alleviate the pressure on under-enrolled schools to close chiefly due to falling student population of Hong Kong.
The student population in Hong Kong has been on a decreasing trend.
While
the situation could be broadly attributable to various socio-economic factors including more couples in Hong Kong having one child only nowadays and some even not having kids, as well as aging population partly because of improved medical care services, there also exists an incidental factor which was the sudden drop in the number of newborns prior to and around 2003.
Coupling with the uncertainty
brought about by the influx of Hong Kong-born children whose parents in the Mainland China may send them across the border to attend schools, the society has become increasingly concerned about the enrollment situation to be encountered by Hong Kong in the years ahead.
In particular, instead of worrying about overcrowded classrooms in the 1990s, educators and policy-makers have started to ask what if schools could not enroll
5
enough students, and whether school closure is inevitable after all.
But a more
forward-looking question would be: How to manage enrollment decline before schools close?
Before addressing the above, an even more fundamental question is: Why school closure is problematic during periods of enrollment decline?
In a typical
market economy, it is contended that quantities of consumer products produced are largely decided by and directly proportional to their demand.
During times of
economic crisis such as the world had witnessed years ago and would potentially witness in the years ahead, demand for consumer products shrinks, resulting in excessive supply.
Factories, shops, restaurants and the likes once profitable become
unprofitable and have to find ways to survive, by either raising revenue or cutting cost, or both at the same time. to operate.
Those businesses failing to do so would eventually cease
This is how market works as commonly understood.
To address the why question, it is useful to review some of the distinctive characteristics of schooling as common pool resources which make it unique and different from typical consumer products or private goods in the market economy: 1)
The Government has pledged to provide free secondary school education to all children of Hong Kong.
In particular, it is stated that
one of the education policy objectives is to provide nine years of free and universal primary and junior secondary education to all children
6
attending public sector schools. 1
In addition, starting from the
2008/09 school year, senior secondary education has also been provided freely by public sector schools; 2)
Schooling is perceived as a basic need of people.
In particular,
education enables the underprivileged to climb up the social ladder and improve their living.
This explains why education usually constitutes
a major share of governments’ spending.
For instance, in the 2012/13
financial year, an estimate of nearly $60 billion or 22.6 % of the recurrent Government expenditure would be spent on education, making it the policy area spending most2; 3)
Schooling has the nature of low excludability (that no one could exclude or ban a child from receiving schooling) and high subtractability (that what a child has consumed in the education system, say a school place, cannot be consumed by another child), which can be identified as an example of common pool resources.3
In short, schools, unlike factories, shops and restaurants, are fundamentally not providing children with private goods or services.
Rather, schooling has some nature
of public goods (low excludability in particular).
It follows that some sort of
government policies is required to intervene and overcome any market failure and
1
2
3
HKSAR Government. Education Bureau. Policy highlights of primary and secondary education. http://www.edb.gov.hk/index.aspx?nodeID=139&langno=1 HKSAR Government. The 2012-13 Budget. http://www.budget.gov.hk/2012/eng/speech.html Weimer, David, and Aiden Vining. 1999. Policy Analysis: Concepts and Practice, 3rd ed., Chapter 5. NJ: Prentice Hall.
7
resume market equilibrium.
It should be noted that, however, some argue that in
Hong Kong, teachers are becoming less respected by students (and parents), that teachers are sometimes regarded as “service providers” for students, who play the role of “customers”.4
This is why the society is concerned about schools, highlighting the importance of the research question, the how question, of this dissertation: How to manage the enrollment decline better?
In this dissertation, Chapter 1 introduces the general enrollment situation the secondary education in Hong Kong has been facing, and the responses by the Government.
In Chapter 2, selected literature will be reviewed forming a theoretical
framework for analysis.
Then Chapter 3 will go on present some important
secondary data on SCT and perceived enrollment fluctuation caused by the influx of children of Mainland mothers.
These data will be used in Chapter 4 to assess how
well Hong Kong’s situation fits into the theoretical framework.
Some important
factors and points for consideration, including the views and perspectives of various stakeholders, will also be discussed.
Finally, it will be concluded and proposed in
Chapter 5 how controlling class size could be used to increase the flexibility of managing enrollment fluctuations, during periods of enrollment decline as well as growth.
Assumptions and limitations of the analysis will also be presented towards
the end of the dissertation. 4
Private or Direct Subsidy System (DSS) schools to a certain extent are providing private services, but they are not the exclusive schooling providers.
8
1.1
Trend of number of students & number of births The following is a graphical representation extracted from the presentation by
the Education Bureau (EDB) at the Legislative Council (LegCo) Education Panel meeting on 8 November 20105.
It shows the variation of Secondary One (S1)
student enrollment of public schools6 during a period of 16 years.
From the highest
point in 2000 at about 80,000 students per year, the S1 student enrollment fell gradually to some 65,000 in 2009, and was expected to plunge further to the lowest point in 2016 at just over 40,000.7
This is equivalent to some 50 % dive in 16 years!
What might have caused the major decline in student enrollment?
Figure 1.1: Actual or projected S1 student enrollment (2000-16)
The table below lists out the number of newborns recorded in Hong Kong and
5
6 7
HKSAR Government. Education Bureau. PowerPoint presentation materials at the Legislative Council Education Panel meeting on 8 November 2010. http://www.legco.gov.hk/yr10-11/chinese/panels/ed/papers/ed1108cb2-212-1-c.pdf It refers to government and aided secondary day schools. The actual enrollment figure for 2010 was 57,801.
9
the corresponding birth rate since the turn of the century.8
Both the number of births
and birth rate attained a minimum in 2003, presumably because of the adverse economic situation and gloomy atmosphere revolving around the society in the wake of the SARS outbreak.
Afterwards, the number of births and birth rate have
experienced a U-turn, rising steadily to nearly 90,000 and above 12 per 1,000 population respectively by 2010.
Table 1.1 Number of births & birth rate (2000-10)
Year
No. of births
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
54,134 48,219 48,209 46,965 49,796 57,098 65,626 70,875 78,822 82,095 88,584
Birth rate (per 1,000 population) 8.1 7.2 7.1 7.0 7.3 8.4 9.6 10.2 11.3 11.7 12.5
Plotting the number of births against Figure 1.1:
8
HKSAR Government. Census and Statistics Department. HK Annual Digest of Statistics (2003, 2009, 2010, 2011 ed.).
10
Figure 1.2: Trend of S1 student enrollment & number of births (2000-16)
From Figure 1.2, it can be noted that: 1)
The number of S1 student enrollment is highly related and directly proportional to the number of births, but with a delay of about 12 years. Assuming children usually enter secondary schools at the age of 12, the low enrollment near 2015 to 2016 can be explained by the relatively small number of newborns back in 2003;
2)
By the same logic, as the number of births has been recovering steadily since 2003, it could be expected that after 2016, the number of S1 student enrollment would also rebound gradually;
3)
In other words, it is reasonable to say that the enrollment decline of secondary schools in recent years could be “temporary” and resolved “naturally” as time goes by.
11
1.2
Trend of number of students & class size Assuming the number of classes were to remain unchanged in the next few
years, it is reasonable to suggest that owing to the enrollment decline, the average class size would also decrease, as illustrated in the following table:9
Table 1.2 Average S1 class size (2000-10, 2016) Year 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2016
No. of S1 classes 2,207 2,220 2,225 2,256 2,270 2,261 2,285 2,290 2,246 2,201 2,163 2,16310
9
Average class size 39.1 38.2 38.4 37.8 37.9 37.9 37.5 36.7 35.4 34.3 32.0 24.9
HKSAR Government. Education Bureau. Student Enrolment Statistics, 2009/10 (Kindergarten, Primary and Secondary Levels). Figures include all local and international secondary day schools. 10 Projected figure assuming that the number of classes in 2016 remains the same as in 2010.
12
Figure 1.3: Trend of S1 student enrollment & average class size
From Figure 1.3, it can be noted that: 1)
The average class size is highly related and directly proportional to the number of S1 student enrollment;
2)
Assuming the number of classes in 2016 were to remain the same as in 2010, or in other words, no classes were to be cut and no schools were to close, then the average class size would shrink to 24.9 students per class;
3)
But from Figure 1.2, the number of S1 student enrollment was expected to rebound after 2016, and so will the average class size.
In
other words, it is reasonable to expect that the class size problem (that there would be too few students in a class) could be “temporary” and resolved “naturally” as time goes by.
13
1.3
Problem definition by Government From the analysis in the last section, it can be learnt that the enrollment
decline of secondary schools would likely be resolved “naturally” after 2016. Accordingly, it is argued that the Government has also defined the nature of problem as temporary, that if the Government could successfully handle the class size problem in the next few years without closing down a substantial number of schools and making people unhappy, the situation would become better after 2016.
1.4
Government responses In response to the enrollment decline, two stages of government responses
have been identified, namely a) relaxing the criterion for approving classes, and b) the Voluntary Optimisation of Class Structure Scheme (the Scheme).
1.4.1 Relaxation of criterion for approving classes In the current system, the EDB is responsible to set out criterion for approving secondary school classes, i.e. the minimum number of students per class that allows schools to participate in the Secondary School Places Allocation (SSPA) in the corresponding school year.
Schools fail to operate three classes (with at least two
classes fulfilling the minimum requirement of student number) would be left with several options, including co-operating with post-secondary institutions such as the Hong Kong Institute of Vocational Education (IVE), merging with other underenrolled schools, joining the Direct Subsidy Scheme (DSS), switching into private
14
schools, and lastly, ceasing operation/closing/being axed.
The criterion for approving classes has been relaxed in recent years as follows:
Table 1.3 Criterion for approving classes
Year
Criterion for approving classes
2006 2008 2009
35 33 30
Minimum student number for schools to join SSPA (to run at least 3 classes) (35 x 2) + 1 = 71 (33 x 2) + 1 = 67 (30 x 2) + 1 = 61
Relaxing the criterion for approving classes is a direct way to prevent closure of under-enrolled schools.
It is obvious that, however, the criterion could not be
relaxed indefinitely because too small classes would be uneconomical and ineffective to run given limited resources.
In the meantime, to ensure even distribution of students in different schools, the EDB has also in stages lowered the maximum number of students allocated to each S1 class through SSPA from 38 to 34.
15
1.4.2 Voluntary Optimisation of Class Structure Scheme In March 2010, the EDB launched the Voluntary Optimisation of Class Structure Scheme (the Scheme), a major initiative to encourage schools with five or more S1 classes to each reduce a class starting from the 2011/12 or 2012/13 school year on a voluntary basis in a bid to share the burden of decline, so that under-enrolled schools are prevented from closing down.
The idea is that class reduction starts
from S1 and will extend to higher classes year by year, until eventually there will be 24 classes (four classes in each of Secondary One to Secondary Six) under the New Senior Secondary (NSS) academic structure.
In order to attract as many schools as possible to participate in the Scheme, the EDB at first offered a package of relief measures to address schools’ concerns. These measures include most importantly the pledge to allow schools retaining their existing teaching staff establishment for five years after the commencement of class reduction, so that schools could manage to adapt through natural wastage of teachers such as retirement.
This is also known as the “five-year toleration period”.
Secondly, on top of the grants that all public schools are entitled to receive from the Government, schools participating in the Scheme would receive an extra sum of grants of $0.25 million per year during the five-year toleration period.
The five-year
accumulated grants of $1.25 million can be used to appoint teachers and teaching assistants, and to procure services to enhance quality of education.
Due to the not satisfying initial responses from schools, about half a year later,
16
in November 2010, the EDB further revealed a set of enhanced measures to attract more participating schools ahead of the 2011/12 school year.
These enhanced
measures include a further commitment of a “six-year transitional period” after the commencement of class reduction, during which schools would be given a quota of six teaching posts.
The schools may use the quota to “absorb surplus teachers”,
meaning that not only the existing teachers can be retained, but even when any teachers (up to six of them) leave the schools or retire during these six years, the schools could employ new teachers to fill the vacancies.
After the six-year
transitional period, the quota will be withdrawn over three years at a rate of two teaching posts per year.
For instance, in the seventh year when the quota will be
reduced to four teaching posts, say if there were five teachers who had departed, the school would then be allowed to fill four (instead of five) of the resulting vacancies. Having said that, the EDB has made it clear that even if there were surplus teachers not being absorbed by the above arrangements, they might still be tolerated given that resources allow.
On the whole, the job security of teachers, at least of existing
teachers, becomes more promising after the introduction of these enhanced measures.
1.5
Effectiveness of the Scheme After the announcement of the enhanced relief measures and a new round of
meetings and negotiations between the EDB and schools and the fact that the 2011/12 school year was approaching, more schools had agreed to join the Scheme by the application deadline of 25 February 2011. reduce one class by the 2012/13 school year.
17
A total of 221 schools had agreed to
1.5.1 Overall effectiveness To evaluate the overall effectiveness of the Scheme, suppose that the target is to keep the average class size in 2016 at the same level as in 2010:
Table 1.4 Estimation of target number of S1 classes in 2016 Year 2010 2016
No. of S1 students11 69,224 53,90012
No. of S1 classes 2,163 X
Average class size 32.0 32.0
By dividing the number of S1 students in 2016 (projected at 53,900) by the average class size (kept at 32.0), X is estimated to be 1,684.
In other words, it would be
necessary to reduce a total of (2,163 – 1,684) = 479 classes by 2016 in order to keep the average class size at the 2010 level.
Assuming each school would reduce at most
one class, it means 479 schools are needed to participate in the Scheme to achieve the target class size.
In reality, however, the number of participating schools (221) is far
less than the requirement, by (479 – 221) = 258 number of schools.
In this regard,
the Scheme is, seemingly, not very successful (or only partially successful) in bringing down the number of S1 classes in a bid to prevent massive school closures.
1.5.2 Overall responses Although the number of participating schools is less than half of the 11 12
Figures in this table refer to local and international day schools. Projected figure is from the presentation by the EDB at the LegCo Education Panel meeting on 8 November 2010.
18
requirement, it is premature to conclude that the Scheme is a failure after all.
In fact,
there were only 393 government, aided and caput secondary day schools in Hong Kong.13
Basically, even all these 393 schools agree to each cut a class, it would still
be short of 479.
Some of the Direct Subsidy Scheme (DSS) schools, and even
international schools, would be needed to “give helping hands” by reducing their scale of operation or even closing down so as to maintain the average class size at the 2010 level.
But this is unlikely given that the DSS and international schools are profit-
based and would hardly agree to give up revenues unconditionally.
Arguably, these
two types of schools are providing private goods instead of common pool resources by selling schooling services to their “customers”.
Moreover, notice that NOT all of the 393 government, aided and caput schools were eligible to join the Scheme, since many of them were already operating less than five S1 classes.
Many schools had four S1 classes, while some had only got three.
In fact, only 251 schools out of these 393 schools were having five or more S1 classes. Their participation rates are consolidated as follows:
13
Committee on Home-School Co-operation. Secondary School Profiles 2011/12. http://www.chsc.hk/ssp/
19
Table 1.5 Participation rates of the Scheme
No. of schools eligible to join the Scheme No. of participating schools % of participating schools
Government
Aided
Caput
Total
15
234
2
251
15
204
2
221
100%
87.2%
100%
88.0%
Surprisingly, as shown in Table 1.5, the overall school participation rate (excluding the ineligible schools) was already high (88.0%).
In particular, even if
the EDB were able to persuade more schools to join the Scheme, it would not be able to complete the mission impossible of keeping the average class size at the 2010 level. At least, something more has to be done in addition to the Scheme. leads to once again the heart of the study of this dissertation: How to manage the enrollment decline better?
20
On that note, it
Chapter 2
Literature Review
Significant and territory-wide enrollment decline, as depicted in the last chapter, did not occur for secondary schools in Hong Kong until the turn of century as the society developed and demography changed.
On the other hand, the
phenomenon of school enrollment decline has actually been observed and discussed for some time already by educational and administrative scholars in the US. Therefore, it is felt that the current study can make reference to the US experience.
In this regard, papers in Peabody Journal of Education, Vol. 60, No. 214 have been selected for study.
The special issue of journal was a collection dedicated to a
conference, hosted by Peabody College of Vanderbilt University, Nashville, Tennessee in February 1982, on the issue of school enrollment decline.
Despite the history of
papers, it should be noted that some of them are particularly relevant to the decline situation currently faced by Hong Kong secondary schools.
The papers involve both
knowledge about decline in general as well as applications of the knowledge on future policy-making.
This chapter will review some of the main points and frameworks
put forward by various scholars under the US or broader context.
2.1
Nature of decline To better understand the characteristic nature of school enrollment decline and
14
Dokecki, Paul R. 1983. Peabody Journal of Education, Vol. 60, No. 2, on “Managing Enrollment Decline: Current Knowledge and Future Applications.” Nashville: Vanderbilt University.
21
the corresponding policy-making process, the papers have given abundance of qualitative descriptions of observations a selection of which will be reviewed in this section.
a)
Berger (1983)15 observes that serious problems occur “when it takes more and
more dollars to educate fewer and fewer students”, and at some point, the “crunch” comes so that “taxes must be raised, budgets must be cut, teachers must be terminated, and schools must be closed”.
What is worse is that “overtaxed communities rebel,
teachers protest, and parents mobilize”. problem.
He defines the situation as a management
In addition, two reasons are proposed to explain the delay in the interest of
educational researchers on the topic of school enrollment decline.
First, enrollment
decline often fails to compete in the “market” of research topics until it becomes a real problem eventually.
Second, many people perceive decline as a temporary condition
which would go away sometime.
b)
By comparing data of ten US cities experiencing enrollment decline, Cibulka
(1983) 16 highlights his findings that, contrary to the common misunderstanding, decline does not necessarily imply service or cost reductions.
This is partly
explained by that despite decline in student number, unit cost of students increases due to dis-economy of smaller scale.
15
16
Berger, Michael A. 1983. “Editor’s Introduction.” Peabody Journal of Education, Vol. 60, No. 2, pp. 1-9. Cibulka, James G. 1983. “Response to Enrollment Loss and Financial Decline in Urban School Systems.” Peabody Journal of Education, Vol. 60, No. 2, pp. 64-78.
22
Babcock (1983)17 recognizes changes in the operational aspects of teaching as
c)
a type of adaptive responses to decline.
Technical adjustments are made to increase
efficiency, fit supply to demand or provide flexibility.
She also encourages prompt
evaluation of school programs in terms of strength, quality and mission etc. before decline starts or even during periods of growth.18
Echoing Cibulka’s view, Babcock
does not take cost reductions for granted during periods of decline.
Rather, she
realizes that there would be costs involved in reorganization, and reorganization for the sole purpose of cutting costs and saving money should be avoided.
She further
points out that administrative costs tend to increase during enrollment decline.
2.2
Theoretical framework of retrenchment policies Berger (1983) continues to identify two major categories of retrenchment
policies of schools during periods of enrollment decline, namely a) substantive retrenchment policies and b) process retrenchment policies.
By sub-dividing the
policies of each category according to their intended consequences and types of nature, he generalizes them by two 2 x 2 matrices for comparison and discussion.
The common and defining dimension for both categories of retrenchment policies is their organizational consequences, i.e. whether the policy outcome is equitable or not.
For policy outcomes that are equitable and applicable across-the-
board (一刀切 ), the policies belong to the equity group.
17
18
Otherwise, policies
Babcock, Judith A. 1983. “Adjustments to Decline: A Longitudinal Study.” Peabody Journal of Education, Vol. 60, No. 2, pp. 79-92. Babcock refers to higher education such as colleges in her paper.
23
applicable to individual schools only are classified into the efficiency group.
In
particular, Levin (1978) has suggested concise definitions to efficiency and equity respectively:
Efficiency refers to cutting employees and units to maximize longterm survival of the organization as a whole, irrespective of the distribution of those cuts.
Equity, in contrast, means the distribution of cuts
across the entire organization, irrespective of the impact of the cuts on the longterm capacity of the organization.19
Berger argues that the choice between equity and efficiency policies involves different tradeoffs and considerations.
For instance, equity policies, explicitly known as
“sharing the pain”, are usually easier to implement because they have avoided singling out certain schools for sacrifice.
However they often punish efficient
schools while rewarding inefficient ones, which is arguably not so fair and “equitable”. In addition, the perspective of equity is based on “an open-system, political model of educational policy-makers”, as it intends to “balance the tradeoffs, build coalitions, and satisfy competing interests”.
On the other hand, efficiency policies, commonly
known as “selective cuts”, enhance efficiency by better resource allocation, raising the chance of school survival with regard to the school system as a whole.
But at the
same time, agreement on such selective cuts, resources of which schools are to be cut, is particularly hard to reach and planning and analysis could be costly. 19
As a result,
Levine, Charles H. 1978. “Organizational decline and cutback management.” Public Administration Review, 39, pp. 316-325.
24
efficiency policies are likely to stir up controversies, and are arguably not so “efficient”.
The perspective of increasing organizational efficiency also assumes that
policy-makers know the cause and effect of relevant policies, and are able to implement them despite opposition.
Echoing Berger’s view, Behn (1983)20 suggests that across-the-board cuts may not be the best way to pursue the goal of organizational maintenance in long run. Such cuts minimize conflict, however also damage all.
Behn warns that such
decremental, across-the-board approach could be the “quickest way to destroy the organization”.
Boyd and Wheaton (1983)21 further point out that in the US scenario, uppermiddle class suburban districts tend to try carry out the “rational” model, also known as the professional advice and consensus-building strategy, to manage enrollment decline, meaning that those districts are more prone to efficiency policies.
In
working class and large urban districts, on the contrary, school closing and retrenchment decision-making are characterized by avoidance and delay tactics. This is largely because there are usually clearer winners and losers in retrenchment policies, and that urban districts tend to face more opposition to school closing than suburban districts.
Therefore, a convenient way to address the decline and minimize
conflict would be across-the-board or dispersed equity type of cutbacks instead of 20
21
Behn, Robert D. 1983. “The Managerial Opportunity of Enrollment Decline.” Peabody Journal of Education, Vol. 60, No. 2, pp. 108-119. Boyd, William Lowe, and Dennis R. Wheaton. 1983. “Conflict Management in Declining School Districts.” Peabody Journal of Education, Vol. 60, No. 2, pp. 25-36.
25
selective or focused efficiency policies.
2.2.1 Substantive retrenchment policies This is the first category of retrenchment policies.
The criterion suggested by
Berger to distinguish the two types of substantive retrenchment policies is whether they are meant to raise revenues or cut costs, or both.
Along with the consequence
dimension of policies discussed in the last section, there are four possible combinations: a) equity and revenue-generating; b) equity and cost-cutting; c) efficiency and revenue-generating; and d) efficiency and cost-cutting.
Examples of
these four combinations under substantive retrenchment policies are summarized into the following 2 x 2 matrix:
Table 2.1 Classification of substantive retrenchment policies
Consequence
Equity
Efficiency
Type of policies Revenue-generating Cost-cutting Freeze hiring of teachers Freeze salary Short-term loans, same Encourage early interest rates for all retirement of teachers schools Cut classes across-theLobby to increase board funding for all schools Defer spending, such as maintenance of facilities Reduction-in-force (RIF) Explore and serve new by seniority and “clients” (students) performance Sell or rent vacated Cut classes or close schools schools selectively
26
Note that in Berger’s original matrix, salary freeze is put in the bottom left cell, i.e. efficiency and revenue-generating.
Here, it is felt that teachers’ salary is a cost of
school operation.
Salary freeze should result in cutting down the cost instead of
raising revenue.
Also, unless salary freeze is applied to teachers selectively, it
should be classified as an equity policy.
Therefore, such policy is put in the top right
cell of Table 2.1, i.e. equity and cost-cutting.
2.2.2 Process retrenchment policies This is the second category of retrenchment policies.
In the process of
gaining acceptance of any decisions made by the administration or school board, it always involves different managerial strategies.
The two types of process
retrenchment policies are termed in Berger’s work as technical and political respectively.
While technical policies are mainly related to the analysis of facts and
data resulting in a logical and rational decision, political policies are generally more delicate and sophisticated as they deal with benefits of stakeholders and involve bargaining and compromising among stakeholders.
Similar to substantive retrenchment policies in the last section, along with the consequence dimension of policies, there are four possible combinations under process retrenchment policies: a) equity and technical; b) equity and political; c) efficiency and technical; and d) efficiency and political:
27
Table 2.2: Classification of process retrenchment policies Type of policies
Consequence
Technical
Equity
Efficiency
School survival analysis Enrollment projections Personnel and facility analysis
Zero-based budgeting of individual schools Evaluate school performance Develop long range strategy
Political Form task forces Delay time of announcement of problem, school closing etc. Consult and educate the public Involve teachers Change leadership Employ consultants to study how to increase efficiency of certain schools or school districts
Note that Berger’s original matrix places teachers’ involvement in the bottom right cell, i.e. efficiency and political.
But it is felt that genuine involvement should not
be confined to selective teachers only, and each teacher should be given equal opportunity to express his/her views.
Therefore, Table 2.2 places such policy in the
top right cell, i.e. equity and political.
But of course, whether involving teachers
would eventually lead to equity or efficiency type of substantive retrenchment policies is another question independent of the process of garnering support from stakeholders.
Finally, it is argued that the distinction between equity and efficiency consequences of process retrenchment policies is less apparent than that for substantive retrenchment policies.
For instance, personnel and facility analysis is
classified in Table 2.2 as an equity policy (equitable resource allocation), but such
28
analysis could lead to improvement in efficiency too.
Similarly, employing
consultants is regarded as an efficiency policy (the aim of increasing school district efficiency), but a fair consultant could come up with equitable ideas too.
Moreover,
many a time the administration or school board carries out multiple combinations of process retrenchment policies at the same time or in stages, so that the boundaries between the four cells in Table 2.2 are sometimes not easy to define.
2.3
Model of environmental change & institutional response Zammuto, Whetten and Cameron (1983)22 in their paper present a model of
environmental change and institutional response with respect to school enrollment decline.
The model suggests various kinds of environmental condition changes
causing the decline which necessitate different institutional retrenchment strategies in response.
Such changes in environmental condition can be brought about by
increased competition for school places, and changing demographics and demand characteristics etc.
It should be noted that the authors’ interest is primarily on
colleges and universities.
The extent to which this model is applicable to secondary
schools in Hong Kong will be addressed later in this section.
Under this model, there are two dimensions of environmental condition change, namely a) type of change in niche configuration, and b) the continuity of such change.
22
Zammuto, Raymond F., David A. Whetten, and Kim S. Cameron. 1983. “Environmental Change, Enrollment Decline and Institutional Response: Speculations on Retrenchment in Colleges and Universities.” Peabody Journal of Education, Vol. 60, No. 2, pp. 93-107.
29
The important notion of the model, niche, is defined as follows: A niche can be defined as the intersection of available resources and the demands for services in the environment that create the potential for an organization, or population of organizations, to exist.23
Two types of change in niche configuration have been identified, namely a) change in the size of niche, and b) change in the shape of niche:
Figure 2.1 Two types of niche change
a) Change in niche size
b) Change in niche shape
Delicate differences exist between these two types of niche change.
To experience a
change in niche size, it means that the available resources of a school become unable to match with the size of potential student population.
23
In particular, shrinking of
Zammuto, Raymond F., David A. Whetten, and Kim S. Cameron. 1983. “Environmental Change, Enrollment Decline and Institutional Response: Speculations on Retrenchment in Colleges and Universities.” Peabody Journal of Education, Vol. 60, No. 2, pp. 94.
30
niche size or decline occurs when demand for the school’s services reduces.
A
typical example is decreasing student population. On the other hand, a change in niche shape refers to qualitative shift in the demand for the school’s services.
In
other words, students demand something different from the services the school is providing.
For instance, students are becoming keener on science subjects than arts
subjects because of better job prospect.
Another dimension of environmental condition change is the continuity of such change.
While a continuous change involves gradual evolution of niche size or
shape, a discontinuous change occurs when a school experiences an abrupt and significant deviation in niche size or shape.
The authors believe that the relative
continuity of environmental condition change affects both perception of such change and responses by the administration and school board.
In particular, the more
discontinuous a change is, the faster it would be perceived and addressed by the administration and school board.
Also, the more continuous a change is, the more
likely it would be perceived as an opportunity instead of a threat.
Consequently,
retrenchment strategies for continuous changes are likely to be more proactive than for discontinuous changes.
Based on the two dimensions of environmental condition change – type of change in niche configuration and its continuity – the following 2 x 2 decline matrix is proposed:
31
Table 2.3 Model of environmental change & institutional response Type of change in niche configuration
Niche size
Continuity of environmental condition change Continuous Decline type: EROSION
Discontinuous Decline type: CONTRACTION
(Example: major doctoral and comprehensive universities)
(Example: two-year colleges)
Response: minor realignment Response: reconstruction Decline type: Decline type: DISSOLUTION COLLAPSE Niche shape
(Example: general baccalaureate colleges)
(Example: specialist colleges)
Response: expansion
Response: experimentation
As noted earlier, since the authors’ main focus is on higher education, the examples given in Table 2.3 are also for tertiary institutions.
Despite this, it is felt that the
examples could serve as a reference to help understand the model better.
In the
meantime, the authors point out that generalist institutions are more susceptible to changes in niche size (erosion and contraction), while specialist institutions tend to suffer from changes in niche shape (dissolution and collapse).
It is because the
relative lack of program diversity of specialist institutions makes them vulnerable to shifting student preferences which cause changes in niche shape.
On the other hand,
the broad curriculum offered by generalist institutions allows them to survive such shifting preferences.
32
Since this dissertation is about secondary schools in Hong Kong which are mostly generalist institutions, more attention should be paid to changes in niche size – erosion and contraction types of decline.
The model relates the types of decline with the corresponding responses as follows.
2.3.1
Erosion Erosion is usually slow in coming.
Uncertainty at the beginning stage on
whether the decline would sustain often prevents radical policy measures.
As a
result, responses would likely focus on organizational fine-tuning and minor realignment.
However, the authors also argue that if institutions are not fast enough
to perceive erosion, eventually they may have to adopt rapid readjustments to increase efficiency, including across-the-board or selective cutbacks in operation.
2.3.2 Contraction Contraction is drastic and could not be simply ignored or denied.
To cope
with the abrupt decline in student number, more vigorous measures might be necessary to reconstruct the mechanism of school programming because supply of students is negatively affected by the discontinuous change.
It should be stressed
that in general, reconstruction should incorporate strategies providing flexibility for the institutions to contract or expand operations in order to adapt to discontinuous
33
changes or fluctuations in enrollment, during periods of decline as well as growth.
2.3.3 Dissolution Similar to erosion, dissolution comes slowly and progressively.
For specialist
institutions, however, the potential adverse consequences of shift in niche shape are far more threatening than shrinking niche size.
Therefore, specialist institutions are
sensitive to dissolution and require less time to perceive it than in the case of erosion. In response, they tend to focus on expansion, such as by modification of programs and creation of new ones.
2.3.4 Collapse Collapse type of decline is characterized by its suddenness and lack of predictability.
It is largely unknown what kind of strategies would work best since
the situation has never been experienced by the institution before.
Under this
situation, responses would tend to be experimental and trial-and-error.
The
institution would look for short-term survival instead of long-term development because situation could further change and long-term forecast is hardly possible.
2.4
Managerial opportunities of decline Contrary to the common view on decline as problematic, Behn (1983) argues
that enrollment decline could create at least five distinct managerial opportunities. They are the opportunities to a) rethink organizational strategy; b) rethink the
34
meaning and measures of performance; c) increase managerial flexibility; d) rethink the meaning of equity; and e) develop new managerial styles.
Since much or part of
these opportunities has been touched on in previous sections, this section will only shed light on d) to rethink the meaning of equity.
Behn sees decline as an opportunity to redefine the meaning of equity: Equity...means being fair to parents, and to teachers, and to taxpayers. Above all, it means being fair to students.24 For equitable retrenchment policies, Behn argues that they must be fair to students as they are to teachers.
This is because, very importantly, it is the school system’s
ultimate mission to provide education for all students, instead of just providing employment for teachers.
While avoiding school closure, policy-makers and
educators should bear in mind to ensure all students have the opportunities to receive education.
Moreover, by saying that policies must be fair to students, administrators
should also ask themselves whether incapable students, such as some students from “Band 3” schools in Hong Kong, should receive more attention and help than other more capable students.
Turning to alternatives to school closure, Phelan (1983) 25 interviewed principals and teachers in the State of Massachusetts.
He concludes that most
interviewees are in favor of job training, granting teachers unpaid leaves of absence 24
25
Behn, Robert D. 1983. “The Managerial Opportunity of Enrollment Decline.” Peabody Journal of Education, Vol. 60, No. 2, pp. 116. Phelan, William T. 1983. “Staffing Policies in Times of Retrenchment: Teacher Opinions.” Peabody Journal of Education, Vol. 60, No. 2, pp. 37-48.
35
from schools for work or study experience in another educational field, such as vocational education, or for chance to change career from education to other fields, such as business and government.
In the meantime, more female interviewees agree
with the policy of job sharing, splitting a teaching post among two or more teachers, than their male counterparts.
This is explained by that some professional women
with children prefer working half-time.
Last but not the least, in his discussion on equity and efficiency consequences of policies, Berger (1983)26 suggests that policy-makers could actually formulate policies to produce both equity and efficiency.
For instance, job roles of teachers
can be redefined such that older teachers become consultants and full-time teachers can work as part-time.
He argues that these examples demonstrate how demand for
greater efficiency is met without punishing individual teachers or schools.
26
Berger, Michael A. 1983. “Retrenchment Policies and Their Organizational Consequences.” Peabody Journal of Education, Vol. 60, No. 2, pp. 49-63.
36
Chapter 3
Review of Secondary Data
This chapter will focus on reviewing some important secondary source data concerning a) small class teaching (SCT) in secondary schools, and b) the effect of influx of children of Mainland mothers on Secondary One (S1) enrollment.
3.1
Small class teaching The following sections will look at SCT from the perspective of other
developed economies in the world and from the local angle of Hong Kong respectively.
3.1.1 Situation in other developed economies In its annual report Education at a Glance, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) regularly conducts studies on different indicators or parameters of educational institutions of its member countries across the world. The following figure is reproduced from the 2011 edition report 27 showing the average class size in primary and lower secondary education for 29 OECD countries28 as well as five other G20 countries: Argentina, Brazil, China, Indonesia and Russian Federation.
The countries are listed in descending order of average class size in
lower secondary education. 27
28
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). Education at a Glance 2011: OECD Indicators. Chapter D - The Learning Environment and Organisation of Schools. Indicator D2 - What is the student-teacher ratio and how big are classes? http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/61/28/48631144.pdf Figures for lower secondary education are not available for Turkey, Ireland and Belgium (Fr.).
37
Figure 3.1 Average class size of some OECD & G20 countries (2009)
It should be noted that: 1)
The OECD countries’ average class size for lower secondary education in 2009 was about 23.5;
2)
The G20 countries’ average class size, 26.8, was substantially higher, but it was positively skewed by China (54.9) and Indonesia (36.5);
3)
In about one-third of the OECD countries surveyed, the class size ranged from 22 to 25;
4)
On average, the class size in lower secondary education for the OECD countries exceeded the class size in their respective primary education by two or more number of students;
5)
Placing Hong Kong (34.3)29 into the picture, it was near the high end of spectrum between Korea (35.3) and Japan (32.9).
29
As shown in Table 1.2, the average S1 class size for Hong Kong in 2009 was 34.3.
38
It is interesting to note that in a written reply by the Education Bureau (EDB) to the Legislative Council’s (LegCo) question on SCT dated 1 February 201230, the Government included an annex to the reply tabling the average class size in primary and secondary schools for Hong Kong and “other developed economies in Asia”, extracted as follows:
Table 3.1 Average class size of Hong Kong & “other developed economies in Asia”
Country/Region Hong Kong Taiwan Singapore Korea Japan
Average class size Primary schools Secondary schools 28.1 33.431 25.9 32.7 34.3 36.6 28.6 35.3 28.0 32.9
Among the five countries or regions compared by the Government, Korea and Japan also appear in the above survey by the OECD.
While it is reasonable for the
Government to compare Hong Kong with developed economies in Asia such as Taiwan and Singapore, the Government did somehow “tactfully” include Korea and Japan which were at the high end of spectrum in the OECD survey (Figure 3.1).
In
fact, Korea and Japan were the two surveyed OECD countries with the highest average class sizes.
On the other hand, if Hong Kong were instead compared with
the same set of countries surveyed by the OECD, one could readily come to conclude 30
31
Legislative Council. 2012. “LCQ16: Small class teaching”. http://www.info.gov.hk/gia/general/201202/01/P201202010295.htm The average class size of Hong Kong’s secondary schools was taken as 33.4 to reflect the situation in the 2011/12 school year.
39
that Hong Kong had a class size much larger than an average OECD country (34.3 versus 23.5, or 46.0% larger)32.
On SCT, the OECD report points out that such policy is often perceived as allowing teachers to spend more time on individual needs of students, apart from reducing the time required to handle disruptions in class.
Moreover, it is evident that
small class may benefit certain groups of students more such as disadvantaged students.
On the other hand, the report also cautions that overall it is weakly evident
that differences in class size have an effect on student performance.
Instead, smaller
classes would have more effect on increasing flexibility for innovative teaching and boosting morale of teachers.
Before talking more about the local situation, it is worth mentioning that the OECD survey finds out that on average, the student-teacher ratio of the surveyed OECD countries was 13.7 for secondary education in 2009.
In addition, the student-
teacher ratio was lower in secondary level than in primary level in 25 of the 34 countries surveyed.
In 2009, the average student-teacher ratio in primary education
for the OECD countries, 16.0, was substantially higher, despite the fact that primary schools tend to have smaller classes33.
The report attributes the reduction in student-
teacher ratio from primary to secondary education to the difference in annual teaching time, which usually increases with the level of education.
In other words, secondary
school teachers tend to spend more time to prepare for classes and teach than their 32 33
Figures as in 2009. See point 4) of Section 3.1.1.
40
primary school counterparts.
3.1.2 Local situation The Hong Kong Government has defined SCT as having a class size between 20 to 25 students.34
While the trend of average S1 class size in Hong Kong over the
years has been reviewed in Chapter 1, it should be pointed out that the Government has been consistently reluctant to implement SCT in secondary schools as a tool to resolve the enrollment decline situation. 1)
For instance:
In a LegCo debate on 3 December 2003, the Secretary for Education and Manpower Arthur Li expressed disagreement on “making the implementation of SCT a solution to teacher redundancy”, because the Government had to be careful in prioritizing education services “given the prevailing financial status”, referring to the bad economic situation during the SARS period35;
2)
In another LegCo debate session on 2 December 2004, the Secretary pointed out that there was “no unanimous conclusion” on the effectiveness of SCT, and that the full implementation of SCT would “incur a huge recurrent expenditure” of the Government.
Mr Li
argued that if the same amount of resources were used to train teachers, it would be “10 times more effective” than the benefits brought about
34
35
Legislative Council. 2004. “LegCo’s Hansard”, pp. 92. http://www.legco.gov.hk/yr04-05/english/counmtg/hansard/cm1202ti-translate-e.pdf Legislative Council. 2003. “LegCo’s Hansard”, pp. 136-138. http://www.legco.gov.hk/yr03-04/english/counmtg/hansard/cm1203ti-translate-e.pdf
41
by SCT36; 3)
In response to a LegCo’s question on 1 February 2012, the Secretary for Education Michael Suen reiterated that international studies had suggested “SCT is more effective when students are small but its effectiveness tends to wane as students age”.
Furthermore, the
Secretary made it clear that the Government did not intend to implement SCT in secondary schools “in a hasty manner to meet the demand of the community”, because it would have to consider “the difficulties of such doing when student population starts to rebound a few years later”37.
In the same reply on 1 February 2012, Mr Suen pointed out that the studentteacher ratio of public secondary schools had improved from 18.5 in the 2000/01 school year to about 15.3 in the 2011/12 school year.
At the same time, the student-
teacher ratio of public primary schools also improved to 14.9.
Interestingly, contrary
to the findings of the OECD report in the last section, in Hong Kong the studentteacher ratio for secondary education was higher than primary education.
Also, for
secondary level, the ratio was higher in Hong Kong (15.3) than an average OECD country (13.7); while for primary level, the ratio was lower in Hong Kong (14.9) than an average OECD country (16.0).
36
37
Legislative Council. 2004. “LegCo’s Hansard”, pp. 89-98. http://www.legco.gov.hk/yr04-05/english/counmtg/hansard/cm1202ti-translate-e.pdf Legislative Council. 2012. “LCQ16: Small class teaching”. http://www.info.gov.hk/gia/general/201202/01/P201202010295.htm
42
3.2
Children of Mainland mothers The issue of children born in Hong Kong to Mainland mothers has been
widely discussed and debated by the public in recent years.
To date, it remains
highly controversial because it involves not only medical, educational and other resources allocation, but in a broader context the population policy and integrity of judicial system in Hong Kong under the principle of “One Country, Two Systems”. While the scope of issue is so extensive that a separate and comprehensive study is necessary, the following discussion would confine itself to and focus primarily on one of the consequences of the influx of children of Mainland mothers into Hong Kong – its effect on S1 enrollment in the years to come – and in particular its implication to the secondary school enrollment policy.
Generally speaking, there are two types of babies born in Hong Kong to Mainland mothers – Type I babies with fathers being Hong Kong residents and Type II babies with fathers being non-Hong Kong residents.
This classification is
fundamental as parents of the two types of babies may have different considerations and intentions in letting their children to stay in Hong Kong after birth, sending them back to Hong Kong at an older age, or not arranging them to reside in Hong Kong at all.
The tables and figures below summarize the number of newborns in Hong Kong to Mainland mothers since 2000 in comparison with the total number of
43
newborns:38
Table 3.2 Breakdown of number of newborns in HK by mother types (2000-11)
Year
Total no. of births
No. of births with Mainland mothers (Type I) (a)
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
54,134 48,219 48,209 46,965 49,796 57,098 65,626 70,875 78,822 82,095 88,584 95,41840
7,464 7,190 7,256 7,962 8,896 9,879 9,438 7,989 7,228 6,213 6,169 6,110
No. of births with Mainland mothers (Type II) (b)
No. of births with Mainland mothers (others)39 (c)
Total no. of births with Mainland mothers (a + b + c)
709 620 1,250 2,070 4,102 9,273 16,044 18,816 25,269 29,766 32,653 35,736
n/a n/a n/a 96 211 386 650 769 1,068 1,274 1,826 2,136
8,173 7,810 8,506 10,128 13,209 19,538 26,132 27,574 33,565 37,253 40,648 43,982
No. of births with local or foreign mothers = Total no. of births – (a + b + c) 45,961 40,409 39,703 36,837 36,587 37,560 39,494 43,301 45,257 44,842 47,936 51,436
Figure 3.2: Number of newborns in HK by mother types (2000-11) No. of births with local or foreign mothers Type II
Type I
38
39 40
The statistical data are provided by the Demographic Statistics Section, Census and Statistics Department, HKSAR Government. Fathers’ residential status unknown. Provisional figure.
44
Table 3.3 Breakdown of proportion of newborns in HK by mother types (2000-11)
Year
Total births
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
100 % 100 % 100 % 100 % 100 % 100 % 100 % 100 % 100 % 100 % 100 % 100 %
% births with Mainland mothers (Type I) (a) 13.8 14.9 15.1 17.0 17.9 17.3 14.4 11.3 9.2 7.6 7.0 6.4
% births with Mainland mothers (Type II) (b) 1.3 1.3 2.6 4.4 8.2 16.2 24.4 26.5 32.1 36.3 36.9 37.5
% births with Mainland mothers (others) (c) n/a n/a n/a 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.0 1.1 1.4 1.6 2.1 2.2
Total % births with Mainland mothers (a + b + c) 15.1 16.2 17.7 21.6 26.5 34.2 39.8 38.9 42.7 45.5 46.0 46.1
% births with local or foreign mothers = 100 – (a + b + c) 84.9 83.8 82.3 78.4 73.5 65.8 60.2 61.1 57.3 54.5 54.0 53.9
Figure 3.3: Proportion of newborns in HK by mother types (2000-11) % of total births
with local or foreign mothers
with Mainland mothers
45
It can be noted that: 1)
Except for 2007, the proportion of newborns with Mainland mothers (the second last column of Table 3.3) had increased year-on-year to nearly half (46.1 %) of the total births in 2011;
2)
Although the number of Type I newborns had stayed at a relatively stable level (with a minimum of 6,110 and a maximum of 9,879), its share among the total births decreased significantly (the third column of Table 3.3).
This was largely due to the surge in the number of Type
II newborns.
In fact, the number of Type II newborns in 2011 (35,736)
was more than 50 times of that 11 years ago (709); 3)
Similarly, the number of newborns with local or foreign mothers had also stayed at a relatively stable level with a moderate increasing trend (with a minimum of 36,587 and a maximum of 51,436), but its share among the total births dropped substantially (the last column of Table 3.3), owing to more Mainland mothers giving births in Hong Kong.
3.2.1 Proportion of children of Mainland mothers residing in Hong Kong In 2011, the Census and Statistics Department released the results of a feature survey about babies born in Hong Kong to Mainland mothers41. rounds of survey were conducted between 2007 and 2011.
A total of five
In the last round of
survey conducted in March and April 2011, questionnaires on 778 Type I babies and 41
HKSAR Government. Census and Statistics Department. 2011. Hong Kong Monthly Digest of Statistics Feature Article - Babies Born in Hong Kong to Mainland Women. http://www.statistics.gov.hk/publication/feature_article/B71109FB2011XXXXB0100.pdf
46
5,142 Type II babies were completed, and it was found out that: 1)
31 % of the surveyed Type I babies were intended by their parents to stay in Hong Kong starting from below age one.
Among the
remaining 69 % Type I babies not intended to reside in Hong Kong before age one, 88 % would eventually be brought back to Hong Kong, of which 93 % cases would happen by the age of 11, meaning that most Type I children would be brought back before entering secondary schools.
Overall, 92 % of Type I babies were intended to reside in
Hong Kong eventually; 2)
Only 1 % of Type II babies were intended by their parents to stay in Hong Kong starting from below age one.
Among the remaining 99 %
Type II babies not intended to reside in Hong Kong before age one, 64 % would eventually be brought back, of which 71 % cases would happen by the age of 11.
In other words, the majority of Type II
children would also be brought back to Hong Kong before entering secondary schools.
Overall, 64 % of Type II babies were intended to
reside in Hong Kong eventually.
This percentage was lower than that
for Type I babies (92 %) as both parents of Type II babies were nonHong Kong residents who were not eligible to reside in Hong Kong.
Further, focusing on Type II babies, the number of which had been rising steadily as discussed in the last section, the overall proportion of them intended to reside in Hong Kong eventually obtained in each of the five rounds of survey is as
47
follows:
Table 3.4 Proportion of Type II babies intended to reside in HK eventually
Survey round
Enquiry period
1st round 2nd round 3rd round 4th round 5th round
29.1.2007 – 15.3.2007 5.1.2009 – 26.2.2009 7.10.2009 – 23.12.2009 6.1.2010 – 29.6.2010 4.3.2011 – 28.4.2011
Proportion of Type II babies intended to reside in HK eventually 62 % 30 % 62 % 68 % 64 %
While the proportion obtained was relatively stable for the first, third, fourth and fifth rounds of survey (62-68 %), it was less than half for the second round of survey (30 %).
It should be noted that the enquiry period of the second round of survey
coincided with the financial turmoil in early 2009. As long as uncertainties exist on the share and number of Type II babies, the magnitude of impact of any fluctuations in the number of Type II babies on school enrollment could be significant.42
3.2.2 Factors for children of Mainland mothers residing in Hong Kong In the fifth round of the above feature survey, an additional question was asked on the decisive factors that affected the intentions of parents of Type I or II babies to arrange their babies to reside in Hong Kong right after birth or at an older age. 42
For
In the Progress Report 2012 of the Steering Committee on Population Policy, the Government also concluded that “it is highly uncertain as to whether, and if so, when, these babies would return to Hong Kong for education and/or settlement” (pp. 39).
48
parents who did not intend to arrange their babies to reside in Hong Kong at all, they were asked instead what the decisive factors were for them NOT to make such arrangement.
It is highlighted that: 1)
The most common decisive factor for arranging babies to reside in Hong Kong was “better education in Hong Kong” (71 % for Type I babies; 82 % for Type II), indicating that these children were intended to enjoy education in Hong Kong, posing significant and lasting impact on the city’s school system and enrollment;
2)
On the other hand, the second most common decisive factor for NOT arranging babies to reside in Hong Kong was “good transportation and not necessary to stay in Hong Kong” (47 % for Type I babies; 48 % for Type II).43
This is interesting because by not arranging babies to
reside in Hong Kong, it does not mean these children would not go to schools in Hong Kong.
Instead, they could go to schools in Hong
Kong by crossing border.
An implication is that it becomes harder to
predict the actual number of these children who would go to schools in Hong Kong, and thus the impact and pressure brought about to the school system and enrollment.
43
Meanwhile, the most common decisive factor for not arranging babies to reside in Hong Kong was “hope that the children will grow up under the guidance of their parents”.
49
Coupling with the fresh round of debates on whether or not to allow pregnant women with Type II babies to deliver in Hong Kong and the policy matter evolved, it is reasonable to conclude that the issue of children of Mainland mothers would complicate Hong Kong’s school enrollment pattern by inducing uncertainty and unseen fluctuations in the number of schoolchildren – ups as well as downs – in the years ahead.
50
Chapter 4
Discussion
This chapter will go on discuss using data from Chapters 1 and 3 with respect to the theoretical framework set out in Chapter 2.
4.1
Nature of decline: Hong Kong case First of all, it is worth pointing out that the decline situation currently faced by
secondary schools in Hong Kong matches quite well and readily with the observations by the US scholars reviewed in Section 2.1.
This is despite the history of these
observations and the geographical distance and cultural differences between the two places as well as the two educational systems.
Just as Berger (1983) observes44, the enrollment issue in Hong Kong has been clearly recognized by the Government as a temporary situation.
In particular, it had
been projected by the Government that the S1 student enrollment would rebound after attaining a minimum near 2016.
Contrary to teachers who maintain SCT as a tool to
improve overall education quality and reduce their heavy workload and pressure, the Government has reiterated that it is unwise to implement SCT for the main purpose of resolving the problem of teacher redundancy in the wake of enrollment decline.
In
the Government’s agenda, the “crunch” – the set of problems related to the shortage of student population – has come essentially because financially, “it takes more and more dollars to educate fewer and fewer students”. 44
See point a) of Section 2.1.
51
This is particularly true because in
Hong Kong, funding of schools is allocated according to the number of classes each school is able to sustain and independent of the class size.
For instance, under the
current arrangement, a school with three 20-student S1 classes would receive more funding than (1.5 times the funding of) a school with two 30-student S1 classes, although the total number of S1 students of these two schools is the same (which is 60).
In other words, the unit cost of students increases as class size decreases.
The
fiscal element as a consideration for NOT implementing SCT is indeed evident from the remarks by the Secretary for Education Michael Suen: Education expenditure amounts to 23 % of the Government’s recurrent expenditure, or $52 billion in the 2010-11 financial year.
Of the $52
billion, the secondary sector takes up 40 % or $20 billion.
If the unit
cost is doubled, it will take up 80 % or $40 billion.45
46
This is consistent with Cibulka’s (1983) findings that the unit cost of students tends to increase during decline due to dis-economy of smaller scale.47
Moreover, Babcock
(1983) also points out that administrative costs tend to increase during decline.48
All
in all, it is fair not to expect major cost reduction, if any, when facing decline situation.
Once the characteristic nature of decline has been identified, Berger defines the situation as a management problem.
Babcock takes a further step forward by
suggesting prompt evaluation of school programs, not only during periods of decline but before the decline actually starts.
In addition, she maintains that such evaluation
is needed even in the case of growth.
Strategic planning of an organization should
45 46
47 48
South China Morning Post. 2010. “Suen restates opposition to smaller classes.” 14 September. But the Secretary was probably inaccurate because doubling the unit cost of students does not necessarily double the education expenditure, provided that the enrollment actually falls. See point b) of Section 2.1. See point c) of Section 2.1.
52
be carried out timely at any stages of development with respect to different scenarios, which in the case of discussion refer to predictable and unpredictable ups and downs in student enrollment.
Fitting all these into the context of Hong Kong, the central
notion points to the evaluation of different approaches to manage the decline better, which has already been established as the key of this dissertation.
The Hong Kong Government, however, was in general slow in response to the decline.
In particular, the Scheme was rolled out only in March 2010, years after the
decline began, left alone time was needed to publicize the Scheme and persuade schools to take part in it.
Strategic planning is lacking or largely invisible, and it has
been shown that even if all eligible schools agree to join the Scheme, it would unlikely totally resolve the problems related to student shortage and school closure. What is missing here is a proper evaluation of class size policy and student allocation mechanism, as implied by the literature.
The refined policy and mechanism should
be designed to efficiently respond to fluctuations in enrollment, not only for the current and “temporary” decline but more importantly, for future and possibly lasting decline as well as growth.
4.2
Theoretical framework of retrenchment policies According to the theoretical framework developed by Berger reviewed in
Section 2.2, a defining dimension of retrenchment policies is about the organizational consequences, or the equitability of policies.
While equity policies share pain
among basically all constituents, efficiency policies implement cuts on selected
53
members only.
It is evident that the Hong Kong Government tends to formulate
equity policies in managing the enrollment decline.
The two more prominent
examples are a) the relaxation of criterion for approved classes, and b) the Scheme.
a)
For the criterion for approved classes, as elaborated in Section 1.4.1, the
minimum number of students per secondary school class had been scaled down from 35 to 30 gradually during 2006-09.
By doing so, schools could survive with fewer
students per class in order to be eligible to join the Secondary School Places Allocation (SSPA).
As such relaxation of criterion for approved classes was
basically decided by the EDB and applicable to all public schools, the measure was an example of equity-based policies.
b)
As for the Scheme, following the discussions in Section 1.4.2, it might be
argued that the Scheme was NOT an equity policy, since not all public schools were eligible to participate.
Indeed, by definition, only schools with five or more S1
classes were eligible to reduce one class and benefit from the incentive packages under the Scheme.
From another angle of view, however, it can also be argued that
the eligibility of having five or more S1 classes was just a necessary prerequisite of the Scheme.
Any schools with five or more S1 classes were in fact allowed to
participate, irrespective of the school’s name, district, composition of students, quality of teachers and students etc.
For this reason, the Scheme is still regarded here as an
equity policy.
54
The emphasis on equity retrenchment policies echoes with the literature that in working class and large urban districts such as Hong Kong, retrenchment decisionmaking is characterized by avoidance and delay tactics.
On one hand, the Hong
Kong Government had delayed the decision to implement the Scheme until the situation worsened; on the other, the Scheme itself has actually been criticized as a delay tactic for the full implementation of SCT in secondary schools.
Moreover,
more forceful or drastic retrenchment decisions such as school closure have been avoided as far as possible.
This is of course related to the notion that urban districts
tend to encounter more opposition to school closure when compared with suburban districts, the underlying reason of which is about politics.
For instance, teachers in
Hong Kong are held together and represented by strong unions, including the influential Hong Kong Professional Teachers’ Union (HKPTU), the ex-chairman of which, Cheung Man-kwong, also a member of Democratic Party, has long acted as an active policy advocate in the LegCo.
Outside the council, the HKPTU is often able
to mobilize teachers to the streets to protest against the Government’s education policies as well.
The highly politicized environment has made the Government more
prone to equity policies, which are usually less controversial than efficiency policies. This notion is in line with the literature that equity policies are easier to implement because they can prevent singling out schools for sacrifice.
Most of the time, it is
hard to build consensus for efficiency policies, such as picking a few schools for closure, because few schools, if any, are willing to sacrifice themselves for others after all.
“Sharing pain” is one thing, but “sacrificing” oneself can be a lot more
“painful”.
55
According to the literature, there are however drawbacks of equity retrenchment policies. good of others.
For instance, equity policies punish efficient schools for the
Actually, when the Scheme rolled out in Hong Kong, a government
school King’s College, one of the most popular schools in the Central and Western District, was also asked to support and participate.
The school’s alumni association
was very concerned about this as it regarded the policy as punishing the popular schools, which had no difficulty in enrolling students, for unjustifiable reasons. Chairman of the alumni association, Lam Chiu-ying, who was also the former Director of Hong Kong Observatory, even argued openly with the Government.
He
wrote in his blog:
現在再提出要求英皇書院（及其他歷史悠久的官中）每級五班減 至四班……嚴重剝削最優秀的基層家庭學生得到最優秀學校教育 的機會，是把教育的不公義推向更大的極端。49 Despite his criticism on the policy, King’s College, along with many government schools, joined the Scheme eventually (and “voluntarily”, according to the Government).
While it is debatable whether across-the-board equity policies are better than efficiency policies in sustaining long-term development of the school system, it is felt that equity policies are more pragmatic given the increasingly politicized environment of Hong Kong society.
But as a refinement to the current practice of policy
formulation, it is suggested that the Government should carry out strategic planning at 49
林超英。網誌《草雲居》〈感恩、感慨〉。二零一零年十一月十四日。
56
the early stage no matter equity or efficiency retrenchment policies are intended, so as to engage stakeholders and address their concerns properly, in a bid to prevent opposition during the policy implementation stage.
4.2.1 Substantive retrenchment policies Fitting the local context into the 2 x 2 matrix about substantive retrenchment policies which distinguishes revenue-generating and cost-cutting policies, the following matrix is proposed: Table 4.1 Substantive retrenchment policies Type of policies Revenue-generating Cost-cutting Relaxation of criterion for approved classes Allow schools to retain existing teaching staff (five-year toleration period) # Voluntary reduction of Extra grant of $1.25 class (the Scheme) Equity million during toleration Increase of class size period # during periods of growth* Quota to absorb surplus teachers (six-year transitional period) # Reduction of class size during periods of decline* Natural wastage of teachers Join Direct Subsidy Co-operation with postScheme (DSS) Efficiency secondary institutions such Switch into private as IVE schools Merge with other schools School closure # Incentive measures applicable to schools joining the Scheme Consequence
* Currently not implemented by the Government
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Note that: 1)
As explained in the last section, both the relaxation of criterion for approved classes and the Scheme fall under equity policies.
By
relaxing the criterion for approved classes, the minimum number of students per class is reduced.
Because every class basically receives
the same amount of funding, reducing the minimum number of students per class increases the unit cost of students, or increases the revenue of school.
On the other hand, as the Scheme reduces one
class per participating school, it cuts the cost running the school; 2)
Since the Scheme has been classified as an equity policy, it is reasonable to put the incentive packages that come with the Scheme under equity policies as well (indicated by # in Table 4.1).
Moreover,
the incentive measures are meant to generate revenue for participating schools.
Interestingly, these incentive measures can be understood as
“compensations” to participating schools, so that a “balance” is reached between the two columns (i.e. the revenue-generating and cost-cutting policies); 3)
In addition to the existing policies, it is proposed to introduce a mechanism that reduces class size during periods of decline, and increases class size during periods of growth (indicated by * in Table 4.1).
This mechanism has the advantage of micro-managing class size
(with decrements or increments as small as one student per class) “automatically” (for it is a regular mechanism rather than an ad-hoc
58
measure) during periods of decline as well as growth (in view of the uncertainty in school enrollment brought about by children of Mainland mothers etc.).
Moreover, by reducing class size (relief of
teachers’ burden) during decline and increasing class size (extra burden on teachers) during growth, again a “balance” can be reached between the two columns of revenue-generating and cost-cutting policies, offsetting or at least minimizing potential opposition from schools and teachers.
4.2.2 Process retrenchment policies Fitting the local context into the 2 x 2 matrix about process retrenchment policies which distinguishes technical and political policies, the following matrix is proposed:
Table 4.2 Process retrenchment policies Type of policies
Consequence
Technical
Equity
Efficiency
Enrollment projections
-
Political Delay tactics Engage teachers and headmasters Bid for school participation in the Scheme Change leadership *
* The head of EDB, the Secretary for Education, is expected to change following the forming of the new term Government.
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Note that: 1)
As discussed in Section 4.2, the emphasis on equity retrenchment policies could be largely due to the highly politicized environment of today’s Hong Kong.
As a matter of fact, technical policies are about
analysis of data and making rational decisions, and are often not so powerful when coming to the political field.
That’s why even when
the Government revealed the enrollment projections, stakeholders could not come into agreement and the Government found it hard to push forward the Scheme despite the urgency of issue; 2)
Although the EDB did pay effort on the issue politically, it is argued that the real hope for breakthrough still lies in the change of leadership as the new term Government assumes office on 1 July 2012.
It is
because a new government is usually more prone to policy changes and forward looking to ensure its policies remain sound and effective throughout its term which in this case already covers until 2017.
4.3
Model of environmental change & institutional response In Section 2.3, the model designed by Zammuto, Whetten and Cameron (1983)
has been reviewed, which suggests the suitable choices of institutional retrenchment strategies would very much depend on the specific sets of environmental condition. The two types of changes in niche configuration are changes in niche size and niche shape respectively, where niche is known as the intersection of resources and demands for services.
In the case of discussion, it has also been pointed out that secondary
60
schools in Hong Kong are mostly generalist institutions, and are more susceptible to changes in niche size, or more precisely, shrinking of niche size during periods of decline (compared with expansion of niche size during growth).
Figure 4.1 Changes in niche size
Shrinking of niche size, e.g. enrollment decline since 2000
Expansion of niche size, e.g. expected enrollment rebound after 2016
The other dimension of the model is the continuity of changes.
In the Hong
Kong case, it is argued that the Government has responded as if the enrollment decline were discontinuous.
From the Government’s perspective, the discontinuity
was mostly caused by the economic crisis and had resulted in an abrupt and significant deviation in niche size, which would be equivalent to some 50 % drop in 16 years.
According to the literature, the corresponding decline type is contraction,
which requires more vigorous measures to reconstruct the mechanism of school
61
programming.50
In particular, strategies are needed to provide flexibility allowing
expansion or contraction of operation to be in place, so as to adapt to the discontinuous changes.
However, note that both the relaxation of criterion for
approved classes and the Scheme were more or less one-off arrangements, and were unable or ineffective to provide the required flexibility to adapt to future changes in enrollment.
It is therefore proposed that a mechanism should be established to allow
expansion or contraction of school operation by fine-tuning the standard S1 class size (and class size of Secondary Two to Secondary Six in subsequent years).
This is
consistent with the proposal set out in point 3), Section 4.2.1.
A separate point for discussion about the literature is that a discontinuous change is more likely to be perceived as a threat rather than an opportunity51, and as a result, strategies for a discontinuous change are likely to be less proactive than for a continuous change.
While this might be true for the current situation in Hong Kong
and the responses by the Government so far, that the decline has been overwhelmingly regarded as a threat to survival of schools, there exists an alternative point of view that such change in enrollment could also be regarded as part of a bigger picture of continuous enrollment fluctuations, the corresponding decline type of which is erosion.
In that sense, it is possible to look at the current decline in a more positive
way, that revamping of policy and mechanism involving fine-tuning and minor realignment strategy could bring about managerial opportunities, such as preparing for possible enrollment fluctuations in future. 50 51
See Section 2.3.2. On the contrary, a continuous change is more likely to be perceived as an opportunity rather than a threat.
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4.4
Managerial opportunities of decline This section will explore other managerial opportunities in the wake of the
current enrollment decline.
As reviewed in Section 2.4, Behn (1983) finds it possible to redefine decline as an opportunity to revisit the meaning of equity.
In the Hong Kong case, it is
apparent that the Government’s reluctance to implement SCT in secondary schools has been mainly due to fiscal consideration, that its implementation would inevitably increase the unit cost of students.
Here, equity is translated as being fair to taxpayers.
Meanwhile, teacher unions, such as the HKPTU, have been very concerned about teacher redundancy following the decline and the heavy workload of teachers, although at the same time they maintain SCT could improve the quality of education and benefit students.
Here, equity is largely taken as being fair to teachers.
On the
other hand, some parents have been worried whether there would be enough places in the popular schools for them to choose from after the class cut. is about being fair to parents’ choice.
Here, it seems equity
But above all, what is missing here is ever
more fundamental – being fair to students themselves.
For the betterment of
students, an opportunity of decline could be explored by making changes to the student allocation policy.
For instance, the Government could consider relaxing the
class size requirement for some “Band 3” schools, since students of these schools would need extra care and attention from teachers.
This arrangement has the
advantages of addressing students’ needs as well as alleviating the pressure of underenrolled schools (win-win situation), and is an example of efficiency, revenue-
63
generating retrenchment policies.
Other managerial opportunities mentioned in the literature include providing “redundant” teachers with job training in another educational field or other fields, hiring older, more experienced teachers as “consultants” of schools, and full-time teachers working as part-time.
While comprehensive studies on introducing similar
arrangements in Hong Kong might be yet to be done, they could at least show that there are plenty of opportunities associate with decline yet to be explored, and that decline is not necessarily a threat but opportunity.
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Chapter 5
Conclusion
In the previous chapters, a systematic study has been conducted on the enrollment decline of secondary schools in Hong Kong.
This dissertation has served
to review first the general situation and the corresponding relief measures by the Government, and then selected literature on the subject, supplemented with data on small class teaching (SCT) as well as children of Mainland mothers.
Subsequently,
it has attempted to apply the framework developed from the literature to the real case of Hong Kong and discuss various findings by contrasting the literature with the case. While most of the findings have already been covered in the previous chapters, they will be presented again in an integrated manner in the following sections.
5.1
Principal findings In regard to the general situation of the enrollment decline and retrenchment
measures in Hong Kong, this dissertation has come to conclude the following useful points.
On top of the significant drop in S1 student enrollment in recent years, there remains considerable uncertainty factors in the years ahead, that could lead to either decline OR growth OR fluctuations in student number.
These uncertainty factors
include whether the rising trend of Type II babies born in Hong Kong would sustain, the proportion of Type II babies who would reside in Hong Kong eventually, the
65
proportion of Type II babies residing north of the border who would go to schools in Hong Kong, and the fragile economic situation which is often decided by the international environment, etc.
As fluctuations in student enrollment cannot be ruled
out, the current decline can be perceived instead as a part of continuous fluctuations the nature of which could be more lasting than a discontinuous and temporary change. If so perceived, a long-term policy or mechanism should be duly set out in order to cope with possibly lasting enrollment fluctuations, instead of using ad-hoc and oneoff measures which are designed to tackle only one problem at a time (頭痛醫頭、腳 痛醫腳).
Action-wise, an evaluation of long-term policy or mechanism, also understood as strategic planning, should be carried out promptly before the decline starts or even during periods of growth.
In particular, a proper evaluation should test the school
system with respect to different scenarios including ups and downs in student enrollment.
Very importantly, education policies should be equitable to students, not
only to taxpayers, teachers and parents.
On retrenchment policies, equitable policies are more pragmatic and preferable in Hong Kong than efficiency policies, mainly due to the highly politicized environment in the society.
In general, retrenchment policies during decline should
not be readily regarded as or set out for the purpose of cost-cutting, because both the unit cost of students and the administrative cost would likely increase during periods of decline.
However, overall cost-cutting is still possible provided that public money
66
saved due to shrinking student number could offset the increased unit cost of students and administrative cost.
Back to the Hong Kong case, the change of the governing team provides an opportunity window for policy changes.
Moreover, it is factual that Hong Kong’s secondary schools were having an average class size substantially larger than an average OECD country (34.3 in Hong Kong against OECD average of 23.5)52.
Besides, Hong Kong’s secondary schools
were having an average student-teacher ratio higher than an average OECD country (15.3 in Hong Kong against OECD average of 13.7)53.
5.2
Suggestions With respect to the research question of how to manage the enrollment decline
better, this dissertation proposes the Government’s future responses as follows.
Firstly, it is desirable to keep the Voluntary Optimisation of Class Structure Scheme (the Scheme) in place, at least until 2016 when the decline is expected to cease, for any more schools that would like to participate in it.
52 53
As in 2009. Hong Kong figure as in 2011; OECD figure as in 2009.
67
Secondly, it is proposed to introduce an equitable mechanism that controls class size by reducing class size of secondary schools during periods of decline, and increasing class size during periods of growth54.
At the same time, Band 3 schools (or using another classification of schools deemed appropriate) should be allowed to adopt a smaller class size than the remaining schools.
Additional and more creative measures should also be looked into to help alleviate teacher redundancy problem, including job training for redundant teachers, changing role of teachers such as school consultants, and full-time teachers working as part-time.
Finally, early strategic planning should be carried out for all the above measures and arrangements.
5.3
Rationale of suggestions The proposal in the last section has the following advantages.
First of all, early strategic planning has the merit of allowing enough time for genuinely engaging stakeholders, the purpose of which is to improve the 54
Details of such mechanism will be elaborated in Section 5.4.
68
Government’s proposal, garner support from the public and reduce opposition against the proposal.
Judging from its high overall participation rate of 88.0 %, the Scheme has been somewhat successful in relieving the pressure of school closure in the wake of enrollment decline.
Since there are still about 30 eligible schools which have not yet
joined the Scheme, keeping it in place until the current decline stops could allow more schools to participate should they change mind.
On top of the Scheme, the suggested mechanism of controlling class size could further relieve the pressure of school closure.
It allows the Government grasping the
managerial opportunities brought about by the current decline as well as future potential enrollment fluctuations.
It is also designed to produce fine-tuning and
minor realignment effect on any continuous fluctuations.
The establishment of the
mechanism could provide an opportunity for the Government to reduce the average class size and student-teacher ratio of secondary schools in Hong Kong, which is consistent with the trend of the more developed economies such as the OECD countries.
Moreover, by attending smaller classes, disadvantaged students could benefit from receiving extra care from teachers.
This is consistent with the notion of being
equitable to students.
69
The various measures and arrangements proposed could also better address teachers’ concern about the problem of teacher redundancy.
It is believed that these
measures could boost teachers’ morale and reduce their dissatisfaction towards the Government.
Last but not the least, the mechanism allows room for class size increase during periods of growth, eliminating the Government’s worry that any class size reduction is “irreversible” (meaning that the class size could not be raised again once class size reduction has been allowed during decline).
5.4
Mechanism to increase flexibility of class size It has been suggested in the last two sections to introduce a mechanism that
reduces class size during enrollment decline and increases class size during growth. However, it is not intended by this dissertation to quantitatively set out the exact parameters for this mechanism.
This is because such evaluation would inevitably
require professional knowledge in education, such as the optimal class size in ordinary secondary schools, which is not in the realm of this study.
Despite this, for
administrative and managerial sake, this section would continue to discuss a proposed mechanism to increase flexibility of controlling class size in a bid to manage enrollment decline. purpose.
The following discussion should serve for an illustrative
In particular, the mechanism should be applicable across-the-board, since it
has been argued repeatedly that equity policies are more pragmatic and preferable in the context of Hong Kong.
70
In Section 1.5.1, it has been estimated that in order to keep the average class size unchanged, some 479 classes would have to be reduced by 2016:
Table 5.1 Estimation of number of S1 classes required Year 2010 2016
No. of S1 students 69,224 53,900
No. of S1 classes 2,163 1,684
Average class size 32.0 32.0
On the contrary, consider a simplified mechanism to keep the number of S1 classes unchanged:
Table 5.2 Estimation of average S1 class size required Year 2010 2016
No. of S1 students 69,224 53,900
No. of S1 classes 2,163 (2,163 – 221) = 1,94255
Then, Y, the reference class size, is estimated to be 27.8. that by 2016, the average class size should be lowered to 27.8. 1)
Average class size 32.0 Y
It is therefore proposed Note that:
The new average class size is still larger than the OECD average of 23.5 in 2009;
2) 55
The mechanism should incorporate a range of class size (exact range to
Less 221 classes, since 221 public secondary schools have already joined the Scheme by each reducing one class.
71
be determined by educational experts) to provide flexibility.
For
instance, if the range were to be set as 25 to 30 students per class, then the EDB should adopt the reference class size (Y) as long as it falls within 25 to 30.
Otherwise, if Y were out of this range, the EDB
would then consider reduce the number of classes (when Y < 25) or increase the number of classes (when Y > 30) so that the average class size would fall back to the set range; 3)
During periods of decline, the mechanism would likely lead to reduction in Y, i.e. class size reduction.
In this case, some of the
more popular schools (such as King’s College) might be unsatisfied, for they have to “share the pain” by admitting fewer students.
To be
more equitable, it is suggested that schools which have joined the Scheme should be allowed to withdraw from it under certain circumstances (exact circumstances to be determined by educational experts) so that those more popular schools could resume operating five classes should they be able to sustain the classes.
But of course,
the incentive packages that come with the Scheme would also be withdrawn at the same time.
5.5
Assumptions of study This section serves to identify the major assumptions made in the analysis of
data.
In the meantime, the next section will focus on various limitations of the
models and suggestions.
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One of the most important assumptions of the analysis is about enrollment projections.
In Chapter 1, it has been assumed that S1 student enrollment would
start to rebound after 2016 due to the fact that birth rate started to climb up near 2004. This is presumably because students are often admitted to S1 at the age of 12.
But,
the degree of correlation between birth rate and enrollment rate is yet to be properly tested and constructed.
In fact, evaluation of the validity of such high correlation
between birth rate and enrollment rate as suggested in Section 1.1 could NOT be confirmed until after the rebound actually happens (if it happens after all). every projection, there would be uncertainty and risks involved.
Just like
A related point is
the assumption made when attempting to explain the birth rate trend since 2003, that the birth rate was largely and negatively affected by SARS and its consequences. Admittedly, this has over-simplified the situation. More often, the birth rate trend cannot be explained by one single factor and should be attributed to a function of factors instead.
Another assumption frequently made is about the discrepancy in point of reference between different sets of statistical figures.
The analysis has tried its best
using the same point of reference for different statistical figures, but this has proved to be hard.
For instance, Figure 1.1 showing the enrollment projections refers to
students of government and aided secondary day schools only.
On the other hand,
the class size data of these two types of schools were not readily available.
As a
compromise, Table 1.2 has made use of the overall class size figures instead which refer to all local and international secondary day schools.
Although the two sets of
figures largely agree and do not contradict with one another (as shown by Figure 1.3),
73
it has to be assumed that such discrepancy in point of reference has insignificant or negligible effect on the accuracy of analysis on the whole.
Similarly, in Section
3.1.1, the survey by the OECD covers average class size for lower secondary education, while the Hong Kong’s average class size used is confined to S1 only. Again, the effect of such discrepancy in point of reference has been assumed to be negligible.
As for the Scheme itself, it has been assumed that each participating school would reduce at most one class, while in fact some schools with five or more classes could possibly reduce more than one class and at the same time operate at least three classes.
Furthermore, it has also been assumed that the Direct Subsidy Scheme
(DSS) schools and international schools would hardly help in resolving the difficult situation of public schools, although such help cannot be ruled out after all.
5.6
Limitations of study This final section serves to identify various limitations of the theoretical
models as well as suggestions made earlier in this chapter.
Firstly, it has been repeatedly argued that equity retrenchment policies are more pragmatic and preferable than efficiency policies amid the hostile political context of Hong Kong.
But as discussed in Chapter 2, such equity policies could
also be the “quickest way to destroy the organization”, for across-the-board cuts may
74
not be good for organizational maintenance in long run.56
For instance, under the
proposed mechanism to increase flexibility of controlling class size, each and every public secondary school were required to adopt the same class size basically (except selected groups of schools such as Band 3 schools which were allowed to adopt an even smaller class size).
Having said that, the popular schools would probably have
to experience substantial reduction of class size, since the maximum allowed class size currently stands at as high as 34.
Effective communication would have to be
established and maintained between the EDB and those popular schools in order to garner support from schools and teachers.
Secondly, as noted by the OECD report in Section 3.1.1 and the remarks by Hong Kong education officials in Section 3.1.2, the overall effectiveness of SCT in improving student performance in secondary education is yet to be proved and established, although by adopting smaller classes teachers could probably feel less work pressure and as a result be able to spend more time and care on each student.
It
remains arguable whether the same amount of money necessary for adopting smaller classes could be used in some other more effective ways to improve education quality.
As for the proposed mechanism in Section 5.3, the various calculations have been greatly simplified and might not be able to reflect the complex situation in reality. Moreover, expertise in education is necessary in designing the actual mechanism to adjust class size.
56
The lack of such expertise of the author of this dissertation causes
See Section 2.2.
75
limitations in devising a detailed mechanism or policy solution, as revealed in points 2) and 3) in Section 5.3.
On the literature side, in reviewing the model of environmental change and institutional response by Zammuto, Whetten and Cameron (1983), it has been noted that their model is primarily proposed for colleges and universities in the US.57
The
suitability of fitting the model into the secondary school case of Hong Kong is debatable to a certain extent.
Lastly, it has also been suggested that the environmental changes faced by the secondary education of Hong Kong involve mostly changes in niche size, due to the generalist nature of secondary schools.58
As a result, the subsequent discussion has
been limited to erosion and contraction types of decline of school system, and has basically neglected the chance for changes in niche shape in regard to school enrollment.
However, such changes in niche shape are possible under certain
circumstances.
For instance, schools specializing in arts, business or science stream
of subjects in higher forms might suffer from changes in niche shape, especially when more students prefer certain stream of subjects due to different reasons, such as more science students than arts students in view of higher chance to pursue studies in universities or better remuneration when working after graduation.
Also, under-
enrolled schools which choose to work with post-secondary institutions such as the IVE could suffer from niche shape changes too because they usually become more 57 58
See Section 2.3. See Section 4.3.
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specialized by co-operating with other institutions.
This study has not taken into
great consideration these factors causing changes in niche shape, mainly because the current decline situation has been linked to the falling number of schoolchildren and changes in niche size, and due to the common view that most public secondary schools in Hong Kong belong to “generalist institutions”.
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BIBLIOGRAPHY Books & Periodicals Babcock, Judith A. 1983. “Adjustments to Decline: A Longitudinal Study.” Peabody Journal of Education, Vol. 60, No. 2, pp. 79-92. Behn, Robert D. 1983. “The Managerial Opportunity of Enrollment Decline.” Peabody Journal of Education, Vol. 60, No. 2, pp. 108-119. Berger, Michael A. 1983. “Editor’s Introduction.” Peabody Journal of Education, Vol. 60, No. 2, pp. 1-9. Berger, Michael A. 1983. “Retrenchment Policies and Their Organizational Consequences.” Peabody Journal of Education, Vol. 60, No. 2, pp. 49-63. Boyd, William Lowe, and Dennis R. Wheaton. 1983. “Conflict Management in Declining School Districts.” Peabody Journal of Education, Vol. 60, No. 2, pp. 25-36. Cibulka, James G. 1983. “Response to Enrollment Loss and Financial Decline in Urban School Systems.” Peabody Journal of Education, Vol. 60, No. 2, pp. 64-78. Dokecki, Paul R. 1983. Peabody Journal of Education, Vol. 60, No. 2, on “Managing Enrollment Decline: Current Knowledge and Future Applications.” Nashville: Vanderbilt University. Levine, Charles H. 1978. “Organizational decline and cutback management.” Public Administration Review, 39, pp. 316-325. Phelan, William T. 1983. “Staffing Policies in Times of Retrenchment: Teacher Opinions.” Peabody Journal of Education, Vol. 60, No. 2, pp. 37-48. Weatherley, Richard, Betty Jane Narver, and Richard Elmore. 1983. “Managing the Politics of Decline: School Closures in Seattle.” Peabody Journal of Education, Vol. 60, No. 2, pp. 10-24. Weimer, David, and Aiden Vining. 1999. Policy Analysis: Concepts and Practice, 3rd ed., Chapter 5. NJ: Prentice Hall. Zammuto, Raymond F., David A. Whetten, and Kim S. Cameron. 1983. “Environmental Change, Enrollment Decline and Institutional Response: Speculations on Retrenchment in Colleges and Universities.” Peabody Journal of Education, Vol. 60, No. 2, pp. 93-107.
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Past school work Wong, Candy, Chan Ming-chung, Victor Ma, and Erik Ngai. 2010. Case analysis report – “Policy process involved in handling under-enrolment in secondary schools.” Hong Kong: University of Hong Kong.
HKSAR Government & Legislative Council Census and Statistics Department. HK Annual Digest of Statistics (2003, 2009, 2010, 2011 ed.). Census and Statistics Department. 2011. Hong Kong Monthly Digest of Statistics Feature Article - Babies Born in Hong Kong to Mainland Women. http://www.statistics.gov.hk/publication/feature_article/B71109FB2011XXXXB0100. pdf Education Bureau. PowerPoint presentation materials at the Legislative Council Education Panel meeting on 8 November 2010. http://www.legco.gov.hk/yr10-11/chinese/panels/ed/papers/ed1108cb2-212-1-c.pdf Education Bureau. 2011. Press release – “Results announced for Voluntary Optimisation of Class Structure Scheme applications”. 30 March. http://www.info.gov.hk/gia/general/201103/30/P201103300148.htm Education Bureau. Student Enrolment Statistics, 2009/10 (Kindergarten, Primary and Secondary Levels). HKSAR Government. The 2012-13 Budget. http://www.budget.gov.hk/2012/eng/speech.html Legislative Council. Database on Particular Policy Issues – Small class teaching. http://www.legco.gov.hk/database/english/data_ed/ed-small-class-teaching.htm Legislative Council. 2012. “LCQ16: Small class teaching”. http://www.info.gov.hk/gia/general/201202/01/P201202010295.htm Steering Committee on Population Policy. Progress Report 2012. http://www.admwing.gov.hk/pdf/SCPP%20Progress%20Report%202012%20(Eng).p df
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Other electronic resources Committee on Home-School Co-operation. Secondary School Profiles 2011/12. http://www.chsc.hk/ssp/ Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). Education at a Glance 2011: OECD Indicators. Chapter D - The Learning Environment and Organisation of Schools. Indicator D2 - What is the student-teacher ratio and how big are classes? http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/61/28/48631144.pdf 林超英。網誌《草雲居》。 http://tiandiyouqing.blogspot.com
Newspapers Apple Daily. Ming Pao. South China Morning Post. Ta Kung Pao.
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