Community Snapshot – Action Southwest Saskatchewan

Overview This snapshot examines demographic, economic, and social characteristics in the Action Southwest region, which encompasses the Swift Current-Moose Jaw Economic Region. A number of indicators are considered, including: resource-reliance, population change, language, education, income, employment, housing, and vulnerability to population decline. Gendered breakdowns are included for many indicators. There are 166 Census Subdivisions, or communities in the Swift Current-Moose Jaw region, grouped into 4 Census Divisions. Ninety-eight percent (162) of the region’s communities are rural. Within the region’s rural areas, 11 communities were in Strong MIZ, 33 communities were in Moderate MIZ, 43 communities were in Weak MIZ, and 75 communities were in No MIZ1. Satellite Image: Action Southwest region

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Rural areas are broken down into Metropolitan Influence Zones (MIZ). Each MIZ represents varying degrees of rurality (economic and social integration between rural and urban areas) based on the percentage of the workforce that commutes from a rural area to an urban area. Size of commuting flows: Strong MIZ (30-49%); Moderate MIZ (5-30%); Weak MIZ (0-5%), No MIZ (0%).

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Community Snapshot – Action Southwest Saskatchewan

Economy The Action Southwest region is comprised of 70 resource-reliant communities: 63 agriculture-reliant communities, 5 energy-reliant communities, and 2 mining-reliant communities (Map 1). The province of Saskatchewan has 271 agriculture-reliant communities, 30 energy-reliant communities 28 mining-reliant communities, and 16 forestry-reliant communities. Map 1: Resource-reliant communities in the Action Southwest region

Demography Between 1996 and 2006, population in the Action Southwest region decreased by 8.1%. Population declined in all Census Divisions of the Action Southwest region, with the largest loss of population experienced in Division No. 3. Division No. 7 lost the lowest percentage of population in the Action Southwest region (Table 1).

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Community Snapshot – Action Southwest Saskatchewan

Table 1: Population change by Census Divisions in the Action Southwest region Geography Population 1996 Saskatchewan 976615 Swift Current - Moose Jaw 107695 Division No. 3 16195 Gravelbourg 1160 Division No. 4 12145 Shaunavon 1790 Division No. 7 48105 Moose Jaw 31940 Division No. 8 31255 Swift Current 14685

Population 2001 978933 102250 14839 1187 11714 1775 46982 32131 30720 14821

Population 2006 % Change 1996-2006 968157 -0.9 98950 -8.1 13133 -18.9 1089 -6.1 11086 -8.7 1691 -5.5 45532 -5.3 32132 0.6 29199 -6.6 14946 1.8

The Action Southwest region gained population in the 45-64 age group between 1996 and 2001, but lost population in all other age groups. In addition, the region had a higher proportion of women compared to men (Figure 1). Figure 1: Population by age group and gender for the Action Southwest region

60000 1996

2001

50000

Population

40000

30000

20000

10000

0 Male

Female Male 0-19

Female 0-19

Male 20-44

Female 20-44

Male 45-64

Female 45-64

Male 65+

Female 65+

Age group/gender

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Community Snapshot – Action Southwest Saskatchewan For all Census Divisions in the Action Southwest region there was a decrease in population in the 0-19 and 20-44 age groups between 1996 and 2001, and an increase in population in the 45-64 and 65 years and over age groups (Table 2). Population aged 019 decreased the most in Division No. 3 (19.1%) and Division No. 7 (11%). Population aged 20-44 decreased the most in Division No. 3 (16.1) and Division No. 4 (12.8%). The strongest growth in population aged 45-64 occurred in Division No. 7 (15.7%) and Division No. 8 (13.4%), while the strongest growth in population over 65 years was in Division No. 7 (7.6%) and Division No. 8 (7.1%). Table 2: Population change by age group by Census Divisions in the Action Southwest region Geography Saskatchewan Swift Current - Moose Jaw Division No. 3 Division No. 4 Division No. 7 Division No. 8

Total 0.2 -5.1 -8.4 -3.5 -2.3 -1.7

Population change (1996-2001) 0-19 20-44 45-64 -6.5 -5.4 15.2 -11.5 -11.4 12.1 -19.1 -16.1 8.8 -8.3 -12.8 12.4 -11.0 -9.9 15.7 -9.4 -9.2 13.4

65+ 9.2 -1.5 2.4 3.8 7.6 7.1

Language Eighty-eight percent of residents in the Action Southwest region have English as their mother tongue. The percentage of residents in the region that have French as their mother tongue was 2.6% in 2001. Between 1996 and 2001, the number of people reporting French as their mother tongue declined by around 560 (17.5%). There are a number of communities in the region that have a high proportion of residents reporting French as their mother tongue: Rush Lake (15.4%), Willow Bunch No. 42 (15.9%), St. Victor (20.4%), South Lake (21.3%), Willow Bunch (22.8%), Gravelbourg No. 104 (26.9%), Val Marie (29.9%), Gravelbourg (31.4%), Ponteix (36.4%), Cadillac (36.8%). Education The Action Southwest region has a higher proportion of residents with secondary school certificates and certificates or diplomas compared to the provincial average (Figure 2). However, the proportion of residents in the Action Southwest region with a university bachelor’s degree is lower than the Saskatchewan average, and the region has a much higher proportion of residents with less than grade 9 compared to the province.

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Community Snapshot – Action Southwest Saskatchewan

Figure 2: Percentage educational attainment in 2001 for the Action Southwest region (population over 20) 45 Saskatchewan Swift Current - Moose Jaw

40

Percent of population

35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Less than grade 9

Secondary school Certificate or diploma University with graduation certificate bachelor's degree or higher Educational attainment

Income Average male, female, and family income in 2001 was lower for the Action Southwest region compared to the Saskatchewan average (Table 3). Male income in 2001 was on average $10572 more than female income in the Action Southwest region, compared to a gap of $12064 in 1996. Average male income in two Census Divisions grew less than the regional average. Average male income in Division No. 3 declined by 3.1% between 1996 and 2001. The strongest growth in average male income occurred in Division No. 7 (9.7%) and Division No. 4 (7.9%). Average female income in three Census Divisions grew more than the regional average, with the greatest growth in Division No. 8 (20.6%) and Division No. 4 (20.5%). Average family income in Census Division No. 7 grew faster than the regional average. Growth in average family income for the Census Divisions was lower than both the provincial and the regional average, except for Division No. 7, which, at 12.5%, was higher than the region.

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Community Snapshot – Action Southwest Saskatchewan

Table 3: Average income by sex and average family income for Census Divisions in the Action Southwest region Geography Saskatchewan Swift Current - Moose Jaw Division No. 3 Division No. 4 Division No. 7 Division No. 8

Average income - males 1996 2001 % Change 28103 31323 11.5 28800 30389 5.5 27344 26495 -3.1 26297 28376 7.9 28221 30968 9.7 31362 32192 2.6

Average income - females 1996 2001 % Change 17002 20496 20.6 16736 19817 18.4 16271 19337 18.8 15903 19158 20.5 16718 19428 16.2 17289 20850 20.6

Average family income 1996 2001 % Change 49483 57005 15.2 49972 54860 9.8 48633 50984 4.8 46273 49565 7.1 48440 54514 12.5 54341 59084 8.7

Employment The employment rate in the Action Southwest region was higher than the Saskatchewan average, while the participation rate was around the same as the provincial rate, and the unemployment rate was lower. Between 1996 and 2001, the unemployment rate in the Action Southwest region decreased from 4.4% to 4% while the unemployment rate for Saskatchewan decreased from 7.2% to 6.3% (Figure 3). Figure 3: Employment, participation, and unemployment rates for the Action Southwest region Employment rate

Participation rate

Unemployment rate

80 70

Percentage

60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1996

2001

1996

Swift Current-Moose Jaw

2001 Saskatchewan

Geography and year

The overall number of residents employed in the Action Southwest region declined between 1996 and 2001 (Table 4). The strongest growth in employment occurred in natural and applied sciences (22.5%) and management (19.3%) while the strongest decline occurred in processing, manufacturing, and utilities (15.9%) and sales and services (13.9%). Female employment grew the most in management (43.5%) and social

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Community Snapshot – Action Southwest Saskatchewan science, education, government service, and religion (16.4%) but declined the most in sales and services (12.9%) and art, culture, recreation, and sport (12%). The number of men employed grew the most in art, culture, recreation, and sport (37.5%) and natural and applied sciences (24.2%) but declined the most in processing, manufacturing and utilities (20.6%) and health (17.5%). Table 4: Employment by occupation and sex for the Action Southwest region 1996

Total 2001

% Change

1996

Male 2001

% Change

1996

Female 2001

% Change

All occupations

56725

55335

-2.5

31470

30385

-3.4

25255

24950

-1.2

Management occupations Business, finance and administrative occupations Natural and applied sciences and related occupations

3490

4165

19.3

2375

2565

8.0

1115

1600

43.5

6650

6180

-7.1

1320

1110

-15.9

5330

5070

-4.9

935

1145

22.5

785

975

24.2

150

170

13.3

Health occupations Occupations in social science, education, government service and religion Occupations in art, culture, recreation and sport

3350

3245

-3.1

515

425

-17.5

2835

2820

-0.5

2920

3060

4.8

1150

1000

-13.0

1770

2060

16.4

785

790

0.6

200

275

37.5

585

515

-12.0

Sales and service occupations Trades, transport and equipment operators and related occupations

13435

11570

-13.9

4670

3940

-15.6

8765

7630

-12.9

7180

7720

7.5

6595

7175

8.8

585

545

-6.8

Occupations unique to primary industry Occupations unique to processing, manufacturing and utilities

15925

15710

-1.4

12120

11525

-4.9

3805

4185

10.0

2070

1740

-15.9

1750

1390

-20.6

320

350

9.4

Housing Seventy-six percent of dwellings in the Action Southwest region were owner-occupied in 2001. The average value of owned dwellings increased from $59,548 to $70,465 between 1996 and 2001. Average gross rent and average payment on owned dwellings increased 12.4% and 17.1% (Table 5). Table 5: Housing in the Action Southwest region Number of occupied private dwellings Number of occupied private dwellings - Owned Number of occupied private dwellings - Rented Average Gross Rent $ - Tenant-occupied Average value of dwelling $ - Owner-occupied Average owner's major payment $ - Owner-occupied

1996 42400 31330 11030 404 59548 450

2001 41840 32125 9655 454 70465 527

% change -1.3 2.5 -12.5 12.4 18.3 17.1

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Community Snapshot – Action Southwest Saskatchewan

Vulnerability to Population decline The Community Information Database includes a number of indicators that have been developed, including one that examines the probability that a community may experience population or employment decline – in other words, vulnerability. Communities in the Action Southwest region have a median vulnerability to future population decline of around 54%. Almost half (49%) of the communities in the Action Southwest region are vulnerable to population decline in the future. The highest vulnerability to population decline in the region is found in Tugaske (89.5%), Chaplin No. 164 (89.6%), Chaplin (89.6%), Enterprise No. 142 (90.8%), Richmound (90.8%), Old Post No. 43 (94.6%), and Wood Mountain (94.6%) (Map 2).

Map 2: Vulnerability to future population decline for communities in the Action Southwest region

Summary The Action Southwest region has agriculture, energy, and mining-reliant communities. The region gained population in the 45-64 age group, but lost population in all other age groups between 1996 and 2001. Income increased in the region while overall employment declined. Employment in management and natural and applied science increased the most, while employment in manufacturing, processing and utilities and sales and service declined the most. Close to half of the communities in the Action Southwest region are vulnerable to population decline in the future.

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