Cautionary Information

December 3, 2015 Credit Suisse 3rd Annual Industrials Conference 2015 Rob Knight CFO 1 Cautionary Information This presentation and related materi...
Author: Juliana Charles
1 downloads 1 Views 2MB Size
December 3, 2015

Credit Suisse 3rd Annual Industrials Conference 2015

Rob Knight CFO

1

Cautionary Information This presentation and related materials contain statements about the Corporation’s future that are not statements of historical fact, including specifically the statements regarding the Corporation’s expectations with respect to economic conditions, government regulation, and demand levels; and its ability to generate financial returns, improve network performance and cost efficiency, and provide returns to its shareholders. These statements are, or will be, forward-looking statements as defined by the Securities Act of 1933 and the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. F Forward-looking d l ki statements t t t also l generally ll include, i l d without ith t limitation, li it ti i f information ti or statements t t t regarding: di projections, predictions, expectations, estimates or forecasts as to the Corporation’s and its subsidiaries’ business, financial, and operational results, and future economic performance; and management’s beliefs, expectations, goals, and objectives and other similar expressions concerning matters that are not historical facts. Forward-looking statements should not be read as a guarantee of future performance or results, and will not necessarily be accurate indications of the times that, or by which, such performance or results will be achieved. Forward-looking information, including expectations regarding operational and financial improvements and the Corporation’s future performance or results are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual performance or results to differ materially from those expressed in the statement. Important factors, including risk factors, could affect the Corporation’s and its subsidiaries’ future results and could cause those results or other outcomes to differ materially from those expressed or implied in the forward-looking statements. Information regarding risk factors and other cautionary information are available in the Corporation’s Annual Report on Form 10K for 2014, which was filed with the SEC on February 6, 2015. The Corporation updates information regarding risk factors if circumstances require such updates in its periodic reports on Form 10-Q and its subsequent Annual Reports on Form 10-K (or such other reports that may be filed with the SEC). Forward-looking statements speak only as of, and are based only upon information available on, the date the statements were made. The Corporation assumes no obligation to update forward-looking information to reflect actual results, changes in assumptions or changes in other factors affecting forward-looking information. If the Corporation does update one or more forward-looking statements, no inference should be drawn that the Corporation will make additional updates with respect thereto or with respect to other forward-looking statements. References to our website are provided for convenience and, therefore, information on or available through the website is not, and should not be deemed to be, incorporated by reference herein. 2

The Strength of a Unique Franchise Excellent Network Strategic Terminal Locations Broad Port Access Border and Interchange Coverage

Business Mix Sep 2015 YTD Freight Revenue: $15.5B Intermodal 20%

Autos 11%

Automotive Distribution Centers Industrial Products 19%

Intermodal Terminals Manifest Terminals Ports

Coal 16%

Border Crossings, Gateways and Interchanges

Agricultural Products 17%

Chemicals 17%

3

Third Quarter 2015 Results Earnings Per Share Third Quarter $1.53

-2%

• Earnings Per Share Down 2%

$1.50

• Softness in Demand

$1.24

• Solid Core Pricing 2013

2014

2015

• Record Operating Ratio 4

2015 Volumes 4QTD 2015 Volumes*

7-Day Monthly Carloadings

(vs 2014)

(000s)

+7%

Automotive

200 2006 @192 2014 @188

190 2015 YTD Down 5%*

2011 @176 2013 @ 176 2012 @176

180

170

-4%

Chemicals Intermodal

Dom: -1% Int’l: -14%

December

-7% -15%

Industrial Products Coal

160 January

-2%

Agricultural Products

-18%

-8%

TOTAL

*Through November 18, 2015

5

Resourcing to Demand Significant Progress in Aligning to Demand Total TE&Y**

• TE&Y Workforce

18,090

17,593 16,341

• Furlough / AWTS: ~ 3,300*

• Locomotives • Storage: ~ 1,150*

1Q15

2Q15

3Q15

Active Locomotive Fleet 7,778

7 454 7,454

7,211

2Q15

3Q15

• Aligning Other Resources 1Q15 * As of November 20, 2015

** Full-time Equivalent

6

Network Performance UP Velocity (As reported to the AAR, in mph) Good

26.5

25.8

26.5

26.7

• Solid Improvement

25.6 24.6

23.8

24.6

• Dynamic Environment 4Q13

4Q14

1Q15

2Q15

3Q15

Week Week Week 44 45 46 Weekly Trend

• Leverage Franchise Strengths

UP Terminal Dwell Good

(As reported to the AAR, in hours) 31.0

28.0

4Q13

4Q14

30.6

1Q15

28.4

28.7

2Q15

3Q15

28.4

27.8

•F Focus on Further F th Improving Service & Costs

27.8

Week Week Week 44 45 46 Weekly Trend

7

Coal Trends

Powder River Basin Coal Stockpiles

Volume Impact

(Days of Burn)

(Weekly Carloadings)

2013 -15 Inventory

100

50,000

5-Year Average

86 2014

24

62

60

30,000 2015* PRB Flooding

10,000 1Q

2Q

3Q

4Q

20 Jan 2013

Jul 2013

Jan 2014

Jul 2014

50%

% from natural gas

50%

48%

48%

47% 38%

40% 42%

Apr ’12: 32%

20%

19%

2009

21%

37% 35% 35%

27% 17%

2007 *Through November 21, 2015

Oct 2015

Electricity Generation Market Share* % from coal

• Natural Gas Prices • Coal Inventory Levels • Exports

Jan 2015

25%

24%

28%

20%

2011

*U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

2013

Aug ‘15 8

Shale-Related Volumes 3.3% of 2015 YTD Total Volume YTD 2015 Through September

Frac Sand*

Volume

% Incr

(000s)

(vs 2014)

% of Total UP Volume

144

-22%

2.1%

Crude Oil

70

-36%

1.0%

Pipe

15

-40%

0.2%

229

-28%

3.3%

• Lower Energy Prices / Lower Rig Counts • Enhanced Fracking Technology

• Crude Oil By Rail Market Drivers • Lower Crude Oil Prices • Unfavorable Price Spreads

2,500

UNP Montthly Carloads

Ave. Month hly U.S. Rig Cou unts

Total Shale

• Frac Sand Drivers

30,000

2,000 20 000 20,000

1,500 1,000

10,000

500 0

0 Jan-14

May-14

Sep-14

U.S. Rig Count**

Jan-15

May-15

Sep-15

UNP Frac Sand Carloads* UNP Crude Oil Carloads

Grain Volumes

* Includes barites ** Source: Baker Hughes

9

U.S. Grain Exports* (Bushels in Millions)

Export Grain Flows

2013/14 1,920 1,864 1,800

2014/15

1,638

2015/16 Est.

1,843 1,715 1 176 1,176 854

800

Major UP-Served Grain Producing Region Corn

Soybeans

Wheat

*Source: USDA November 2015

UNP Weekly Grain Carloads 9,000 ,

(As reported to the AAR) 2015* 2015

2014

7,500 6,000 4,500 3,000 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 *Through November 21, 2015

10

Intermodal

2015 Volume Mix YTD Through September

Seattle Tacoma

International 49%

Portland Twin Cities

Domestic D ti 51%

Chicago Sparks

Council Bluffs Salt Lake City

Lathrop Oakland

Kansas City

Denver

Retail Inventory-to-Sales Ratio Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

Memphis

Las Vegas LA Long Beach

St. Louis

1.6

Tucson Dallas Nogales Santa Teresa / San Antonio El Paso

Intermodal Terminals

Interchange Points

1.4 Houston New Orleans

Eagle Pass

Ports

1.48

1.5

1.46

Shreveport

Laredo

1.39

60 0

1.34

1.3 Jan-10

Jan-12

Jan-14

Sep-15 11

Anticipated North American Expansions Plastic Resins

2016 2017

Overall New U.S. Chemical Industry Investment: $100+ Billion*

Sarnia, ON

Joffre, AB 2016 2018 La Porte, TX

Lake Charles, LA

La Porte, TX

2016 Plaquemine, LA

2017

2017 Baytown, TX Plaquemine, LA Freeport, TX 2018 Sweeny, TX

2015

Coatzacoalcos, VL

2016

Point Comfort, TX

Corpus Christi, TX *American Chemistry Council

12

U.S. Vehicle Sales

2015 Volume Mix YTD Through September

Eastport

Seattle

Auto Parts 43%

Duluth

Portland

Finished Vehicles 57%

Twin Cities Chicago Omaha Oakland

Salt Lake City

Denver Kansas City

Los Angeles

U.S. Light Vehicle SAAR*

St. Louis Memphis

Dallas

18.2

17.8

17.4 16 5 16.5

18.1

17.7

16 4 16.4

New Orleans Borders & Interchange

Houston

10.4

Distribution Centers/Ports (UP Owned/Leased and Private)

2006

2009

2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E

Assembly Centers (UP served) *Source: November 2015 IHS Global Insight forecast 13

UP Positioned for Mexico Growth Strong Investments – Foreign & Domestic

Volume Growth (Carloads in Thousands) +8% +3%

+5% +9%

708

764 776 743

750

817

857

956

882

600 '05

'06

'07

'08

'09

'10

'11

'12

'13

'14

2015 Volume Mix YTD Through September

Autos 47% Ag Products 14%

Chemicals 7%

Industrial Intermodal 22% 10%

Coal

Suggest Documents