December 3, 2015
Credit Suisse 3rd Annual Industrials Conference 2015
Rob Knight CFO
1
Cautionary Information This presentation and related materials contain statements about the Corporation’s future that are not statements of historical fact, including specifically the statements regarding the Corporation’s expectations with respect to economic conditions, government regulation, and demand levels; and its ability to generate financial returns, improve network performance and cost efficiency, and provide returns to its shareholders. These statements are, or will be, forward-looking statements as defined by the Securities Act of 1933 and the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. F Forward-looking d l ki statements t t t also l generally ll include, i l d without ith t limitation, li it ti i f information ti or statements t t t regarding: di projections, predictions, expectations, estimates or forecasts as to the Corporation’s and its subsidiaries’ business, financial, and operational results, and future economic performance; and management’s beliefs, expectations, goals, and objectives and other similar expressions concerning matters that are not historical facts. Forward-looking statements should not be read as a guarantee of future performance or results, and will not necessarily be accurate indications of the times that, or by which, such performance or results will be achieved. Forward-looking information, including expectations regarding operational and financial improvements and the Corporation’s future performance or results are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual performance or results to differ materially from those expressed in the statement. Important factors, including risk factors, could affect the Corporation’s and its subsidiaries’ future results and could cause those results or other outcomes to differ materially from those expressed or implied in the forward-looking statements. Information regarding risk factors and other cautionary information are available in the Corporation’s Annual Report on Form 10K for 2014, which was filed with the SEC on February 6, 2015. The Corporation updates information regarding risk factors if circumstances require such updates in its periodic reports on Form 10-Q and its subsequent Annual Reports on Form 10-K (or such other reports that may be filed with the SEC). Forward-looking statements speak only as of, and are based only upon information available on, the date the statements were made. The Corporation assumes no obligation to update forward-looking information to reflect actual results, changes in assumptions or changes in other factors affecting forward-looking information. If the Corporation does update one or more forward-looking statements, no inference should be drawn that the Corporation will make additional updates with respect thereto or with respect to other forward-looking statements. References to our website are provided for convenience and, therefore, information on or available through the website is not, and should not be deemed to be, incorporated by reference herein. 2
The Strength of a Unique Franchise Excellent Network Strategic Terminal Locations Broad Port Access Border and Interchange Coverage
Business Mix Sep 2015 YTD Freight Revenue: $15.5B Intermodal 20%
Autos 11%
Automotive Distribution Centers Industrial Products 19%
Intermodal Terminals Manifest Terminals Ports
Coal 16%
Border Crossings, Gateways and Interchanges
Agricultural Products 17%
Chemicals 17%
3
Third Quarter 2015 Results Earnings Per Share Third Quarter $1.53
-2%
• Earnings Per Share Down 2%
$1.50
• Softness in Demand
$1.24
• Solid Core Pricing 2013
2014
2015
• Record Operating Ratio 4
2015 Volumes 4QTD 2015 Volumes*
7-Day Monthly Carloadings
(vs 2014)
(000s)
+7%
Automotive
200 2006 @192 2014 @188
190 2015 YTD Down 5%*
2011 @176 2013 @ 176 2012 @176
180
170
-4%
Chemicals Intermodal
Dom: -1% Int’l: -14%
December
-7% -15%
Industrial Products Coal
160 January
-2%
Agricultural Products
-18%
-8%
TOTAL
*Through November 18, 2015
5
Resourcing to Demand Significant Progress in Aligning to Demand Total TE&Y**
• TE&Y Workforce
18,090
17,593 16,341
• Furlough / AWTS: ~ 3,300*
• Locomotives • Storage: ~ 1,150*
1Q15
2Q15
3Q15
Active Locomotive Fleet 7,778
7 454 7,454
7,211
2Q15
3Q15
• Aligning Other Resources 1Q15 * As of November 20, 2015
** Full-time Equivalent
6
Network Performance UP Velocity (As reported to the AAR, in mph) Good
26.5
25.8
26.5
26.7
• Solid Improvement
25.6 24.6
23.8
24.6
• Dynamic Environment 4Q13
4Q14
1Q15
2Q15
3Q15
Week Week Week 44 45 46 Weekly Trend
• Leverage Franchise Strengths
UP Terminal Dwell Good
(As reported to the AAR, in hours) 31.0
28.0
4Q13
4Q14
30.6
1Q15
28.4
28.7
2Q15
3Q15
28.4
27.8
•F Focus on Further F th Improving Service & Costs
27.8
Week Week Week 44 45 46 Weekly Trend
7
Coal Trends
Powder River Basin Coal Stockpiles
Volume Impact
(Days of Burn)
(Weekly Carloadings)
2013 -15 Inventory
100
50,000
5-Year Average
86 2014
24
62
60
30,000 2015* PRB Flooding
10,000 1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
20 Jan 2013
Jul 2013
Jan 2014
Jul 2014
50%
% from natural gas
50%
48%
48%
47% 38%
40% 42%
Apr ’12: 32%
20%
19%
2009
21%
37% 35% 35%
27% 17%
2007 *Through November 21, 2015
Oct 2015
Electricity Generation Market Share* % from coal
• Natural Gas Prices • Coal Inventory Levels • Exports
Jan 2015
25%
24%
28%
20%
2011
*U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)
2013
Aug ‘15 8
Shale-Related Volumes 3.3% of 2015 YTD Total Volume YTD 2015 Through September
Frac Sand*
Volume
% Incr
(000s)
(vs 2014)
% of Total UP Volume
144
-22%
2.1%
Crude Oil
70
-36%
1.0%
Pipe
15
-40%
0.2%
229
-28%
3.3%
• Lower Energy Prices / Lower Rig Counts • Enhanced Fracking Technology
• Crude Oil By Rail Market Drivers • Lower Crude Oil Prices • Unfavorable Price Spreads
2,500
UNP Montthly Carloads
Ave. Month hly U.S. Rig Cou unts
Total Shale
• Frac Sand Drivers
30,000
2,000 20 000 20,000
1,500 1,000
10,000
500 0
0 Jan-14
May-14
Sep-14
U.S. Rig Count**
Jan-15
May-15
Sep-15
UNP Frac Sand Carloads* UNP Crude Oil Carloads
Grain Volumes
* Includes barites ** Source: Baker Hughes
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U.S. Grain Exports* (Bushels in Millions)
Export Grain Flows
2013/14 1,920 1,864 1,800
2014/15
1,638
2015/16 Est.
1,843 1,715 1 176 1,176 854
800
Major UP-Served Grain Producing Region Corn
Soybeans
Wheat
*Source: USDA November 2015
UNP Weekly Grain Carloads 9,000 ,
(As reported to the AAR) 2015* 2015
2014
7,500 6,000 4,500 3,000 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 *Through November 21, 2015
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Intermodal
2015 Volume Mix YTD Through September
Seattle Tacoma
International 49%
Portland Twin Cities
Domestic D ti 51%
Chicago Sparks
Council Bluffs Salt Lake City
Lathrop Oakland
Kansas City
Denver
Retail Inventory-to-Sales Ratio Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
Memphis
Las Vegas LA Long Beach
St. Louis
1.6
Tucson Dallas Nogales Santa Teresa / San Antonio El Paso
Intermodal Terminals
Interchange Points
1.4 Houston New Orleans
Eagle Pass
Ports
1.48
1.5
1.46
Shreveport
Laredo
1.39
60 0
1.34
1.3 Jan-10
Jan-12
Jan-14
Sep-15 11
Anticipated North American Expansions Plastic Resins
2016 2017
Overall New U.S. Chemical Industry Investment: $100+ Billion*
Sarnia, ON
Joffre, AB 2016 2018 La Porte, TX
Lake Charles, LA
La Porte, TX
2016 Plaquemine, LA
2017
2017 Baytown, TX Plaquemine, LA Freeport, TX 2018 Sweeny, TX
2015
Coatzacoalcos, VL
2016
Point Comfort, TX
Corpus Christi, TX *American Chemistry Council
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U.S. Vehicle Sales
2015 Volume Mix YTD Through September
Eastport
Seattle
Auto Parts 43%
Duluth
Portland
Finished Vehicles 57%
Twin Cities Chicago Omaha Oakland
Salt Lake City
Denver Kansas City
Los Angeles
U.S. Light Vehicle SAAR*
St. Louis Memphis
Dallas
18.2
17.8
17.4 16 5 16.5
18.1
17.7
16 4 16.4
New Orleans Borders & Interchange
Houston
10.4
Distribution Centers/Ports (UP Owned/Leased and Private)
2006
2009
2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E
Assembly Centers (UP served) *Source: November 2015 IHS Global Insight forecast 13
UP Positioned for Mexico Growth Strong Investments – Foreign & Domestic
Volume Growth (Carloads in Thousands) +8% +3%
+5% +9%
708
764 776 743
750
817
857
956
882
600 '05
'06
'07
'08
'09
'10
'11
'12
'13
'14
2015 Volume Mix YTD Through September
Autos 47% Ag Products 14%
Chemicals 7%
Industrial Intermodal 22% 10%
Coal