AVON NUNN MILLS ENVIRONMENTAL STATEMENT Socio-economics

6

Socio-economics

6.1

Introduction

6.1.1

This chapter considers the likely significant socio-economic effects of the Proposed Development. These considerations are most commonly related to the effects upon the human population who will live in the new development area and those who live in close proximity to the Application Site. The analysis focuses on provision for housing, employment and community services within Northampton and the surrounding area.

6.1.2

A description is provided of the methods used to determine: the baseline conditions currently existing at the Application Site and surrounding area; the mitigation measures required to reduce or offset any significant adverse effects; and the residual effects after these measures have been employed.

6.2

Assessment Approach Study Area

6.2.1

This chapter focuses on the urban area of Northampton. However, for comparative purposes, and to provide the necessary context, reference is also made to baseline data for the wider county, regional and national levels. Legislation and Guidelines

6.2.2

There is no single specific legislation and / or guideline documents relevant to the preparation of this Chapter. However, regard has been given to the best practice guidance on the content and presentation of Environmental Statements issued by the former Department of the Environment, Transport and the Regions (DETR), which includes a brief discussion of socio-economic effects.

6.2.3

Consideration has also been given to the provisions of the National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF) and in particular the objectives of achieving sustainable development. Paragraph 7 of the NPPF states the three dimensions of sustainable development as being economic, social and environmental. Paragraph 8 continues that these factors should not be undertaken in isolation, because they are mutually dependent. To achieve sustainable development, economic, social and environmental gains should be sought jointly and simultaneously through the planning system.

6.2.4

As such, assessment of the various socio-economic aspects within this chapter has been considered in the light of the sustainable development objectives of the NPPF and in particular the associated gains that sustainable development can deliver. Sources of Baseline Information

6.2.5

Baseline information was derived from a variety of sources. These include numerous publications as well as internet sources and direct telephone interviews: i)

Office for National Statistics (ONS) Census 2011;

ii)

Office for National Statistics (ONS) (2010) Mid Year Estimates;

iii)

West Northamptonshire Joint Planning Unit (JPU) (2011) Joint Annual Monitoring Report;

iv)

ONS (2010) Summary of key birth statistics;

v)

West Northamptonshire JPU (2011) Population, Household and Labour Force Technical Paper;

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AVON NUNN MILLS ENVIRONMENTAL STATEMENT Socio-economics vi)

West Northamptonshire JPU (2010) Strategic Housing Market Assessment;

vii) South Northamptonshire Council (SNC) (2010) Strategic Housing Team Growth Report viii) DCLG (2012) National Planning Policy Framework; ix)

Parks and Open Spaces Strategy for Northampton (November 2009);

x)

West Northamptonshire JPU (2009) Sports Facilities Strategy for West Northamptonshire;

xi)

National Online Manpower Information System (NOMIS);

xii) NHS Choices; xiii) The Network of Public Health Observatories; xiv) HCA (2010) Employment Densities Guide, 2nd Edition; xv) West Northamptonshire JPU (2009) West Northamptonshire Retail Study 2008 to 2026 Final Report. General Effects on Population from Socio-Economic Changes 6.2.6

There are a number of general effects on the population that can arise from socio-economic changes. Physical effects can be as diverse as community severance or the coalescence of settlements. Direct economic effects can relate to labour supply and training, wage levels, the characteristics of employment and whether job opportunities are created locally, or at a distance. Wider economic effects include retail expenditure, labour market pressures, and the effect on the supply chain.

6.2.7

Demographic effects can include changes in population size (temporary / permanent), and changes in the characteristics of the population, for example household size. These have a bearing on the housing requirements, including tenure systems (private and non-private), house prices and homelessness. Scope

6.2.8

This chapter considers the socio-economic issues arising from the Proposed Development. It examines various social and community matters including: i)

Demographic Change

ii)

Housing Need

iii)

Employment Generation

iv)

Education Provision

v)

Local Retail Facilities

vi)

Sports and Recreation Provision; and

vii) Health. 6.3

Baseline Conditions Population

6.3.1

According to the Office for National Statistics (ONS) 2010 Mid-Year database for population estimates and forecasts, Northamptonshire has a population of approximately 687,000 people, whilst Northampton Borough has a population of approximately 212,000 people1.

6.3.2

The current population composition and future projected population of Northampton Borough is shown in Table 6.1 below. As at 2010 Northampton Borough’s population was projected to grow

1

ONS 2010 Mid Year Estimates – Table 8 – Local Authority Selected Ages 2010

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AVON NUNN MILLS ENVIRONMENTAL STATEMENT Socio-economics by some 50,800 persons between 2010 and 2026. This represents a projected increase of just over 23%. Low birth and death rates have continued in Northamptonshire and these low rates are projected to remain roughly equal and constant 2. Table 6.1: Northampton Borough’s Population Profile (000’s) Age

2010

2018

2026

0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85-89 90+ Total

15.6 12.0 11.4 13.2 16.2 17.0 15.3 15.5 15.8 14.9 12.7 11.2 12.0 8.5 6.8 5.5 4.4 2.8 1.4 212.2

18.0 16.0 14.0 12.0 16.0 20.0 19.0 17.0 15.0 16.0 15.0 14.0 11.0 11.0 10.0 6.0 5.0 3.0 2.0 239.0

18.0 17.0 16.0 16.0 17.0 18.0 20.0 20.0 18.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 14.0 12.0 10.0 10.0 7.0 4.0 3.0 263.0

Growth 2010-2026 2.4 +15.4% 5.0 +41.6% 4.6 +40.4% 2.8 +21.2% 0.8 +4.9% 1.0 +5.8% 4.7 +30.7% 4.5 +29.0% 2.2 +13.9% 0.1 +0.6% 3.0 +18.1% 3.8 +33.9% 2.0 +16.6% 3.5 +41.2% 3.2 +47.1% 4.5 +81.8% 2.6 +59.1% 1.2 +42.9% 1.6 +214.3% 50.8 +23.9%

Source: ONS Table 9 Mid-2010 Population Estimates & ONS 2008-based Sub-national Population Projections: Table 2b

6.3.3

It should be noted that the ONS projections in Table 6.1 are only based on past rates and as such do not take future policy decisions or objectives into consideration. It can therefore be assumed that the ‘actual’ population projection figures for Northampton will be higher than indicated above where developments, such as that proposed, will not have been fully considered in calculating future projections. Age Profile

6.3.4

It can be seen in Table 6.1 above that Northampton currently has a relatively youthful population with some 52,200 (approximately 25%) of the population being aged under 20 years. However, the table highlights some important trends for the development proposals. Table 6.1 above breaks the population down by Quinary-Age groups in Northampton as projected to 2026. It can be seen that Northampton is expected to see a significantly higher percentage increase of older people (65+) up to 2026 than any other age group. This is consistent with national projections where there is evidence of an ageing population. Household Growth

6.3.5

2

Table 6.2 shows that at 2008 there were approximately 90,000 households in Northampton. This is projected to increase to 118,000 households by 2026 and 127,000 households by 2033. This represents an increase of 31.1% and 41.1% respectively against the 2008 baseline. Again these

ONS Summary of key live birth statistics, 2010

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AVON NUNN MILLS ENVIRONMENTAL STATEMENT Socio-economics figures are derived from past rates and therefore policy objectives such as the construction of the Proposed Development will not necessarily have been fully taken into consideration. Table 6.2: Northampton Household Projections Year

2008

2013

2018

2023

2026

2028

2033

Northampton Household Projection

90,000

98,000

106,000

114,000

118,00

120,000

127,000

Source: DCLG: Live Tables on Household Projections, 2008

6.3.6

In 2001 the average household size in Northamptonshire was 2.60 persons per household (Census 2001); this had decreased to 2.41 by 2008 (2008 mid-year) and as of 2011 is currently 2.34 persons per household3. This is consistent with the national trend as single person households are becoming more common.

6.3.7

This significant reduction in household size is due to consistent trends nationwide, including: young adults moving out of the parent home, increases in relationship breakdown and divorce, people choosing to have fewer children and many older people who outlive their partners and are continuing to live alone for significantly longer4.

6.3.8

For the purposes of this assessment, future population estimates are based on current household sizes (i.e. 2.34 persons per household). This then provides a maximum / ‘worst case scenario’ to assess the socio-economic effects of the Proposed Development against, whilst remembering that ‘actual’ effects are likely to be further reduced due to the anticipated reductions in household sizes in future. Housing Need

6.3.9

The West Northamptonshire Strategic Housing Market Assessment (May 2010) (SHMA) provides the most comprehensive and up-to-date assessment of the current housing needs in the region. The study found that West Northamptonshire has a diverse mix of housing tenures. Table 6.3 below shows the overall tenure of housing stock in West Northamptonshire (no data exists for Northampton at a local level) and highlights that owner-occupation forms a majority of housing stock in the sub-region. 78.7% of all properties across the area are owned outright or are owned with a mortgage. Around 12.5% of stock is rented from social landlords with the remaining 8.9% in private rent. There is little difference between the local authorities within West Northamptonshire and their tenure distribution. The supporting text of the SHMA states that Northampton has a slightly lower proportion of those who own outright and slightly more who own with a mortgage. Table 6.3: Housing Tenure in West Northamptonshire

West Northamptonshire

Owned Outright

Owned with Mortgage

Rented from Private Landlord

Rented from Housing Association

Rented from Council

22.8%

55.9%

8.8%

2.2%

10.3%

Source: West Northamptonshire Strategic Housing Market Assessment (May 2010)

3 4

West Northamptonshire JPU (2011) Population, Household and Labour Force Technical Paper West Northamptonshire Strategic Housing Market Assessment, May 2010

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AVON NUNN MILLS ENVIRONMENTAL STATEMENT Socio-economics 6.3.10 Table 6.4 below highlights the West Northamptonshire Strategic Housing Market Assessments findings in terms of size and mix of housing requirement to 2026 for the ‘Northampton Implementation Area’ (NIA). The Table indicates that there is a total ‘housing need’ within NIA for some 31,000 additional dwellings. The provisions of the emerging Joint Core Strategy should also be noted. This identifies, for the period 2001 to 2026, a net additional housing requirement of 50,150 new dwellings, of which a requirement for 19,810 remains beyond 2011. Table 6.4: Size Mix of Housing Requirement in Northampton to 2026 (Note: Figures in table may not sum due to rounding) Housing Type

Market Housing

Intermediate Affordable Housing

Social Rented Housing

All Housing

No of Bedrooms

Housing Need

1

1,400

2

5,300

3

10,200

4

3,100

5+

700

Sub-Total

20,600

1

-

2

-

3

100

4

-

5+

-

Sub-Total

100

1

3,800

2

3,100

3

3,000

4

300

5+

100

Sub-Total

10,300

1

5,200

2

8,400

3

13,300

4

3,400

5+

800

Sub-Total

31,000

Source: West Northamptonshire Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2009

6.3.11 The Proposed Development is supported by a local evidence-base of housing need within the region and represents a significant and necessary contribution towards meeting this housing requirement. Employment and Unemployment 6.3.12 The emerging Joint Core Strategy identifies Northampton as a ‘Regional Town Centre’ where development should be concentrated. The development proposals aim to build on this objective by providing a mix of residential and employment opportunities. 6.3.13 Table 6.5 highlights locally available employment statistics for Northampton.

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AVON NUNN MILLS ENVIRONMENTAL STATEMENT Socio-economics Table 6.5: National and Local Authority Labour Supply Northampton (Numbers/%)

East Midlands (%)

Great Britain (%)

Economically Active

119,800

81.8

77.5

76.5

Unemployed

9,200

7.6

8.0

8.1

Source: NOMIS Employment and Unemployment (April 2011-March 2012)

6.3.14 Table 6.5 shows that unemployment in Northampton was below the national and regional averages in the same period. 6.3.15 When compared to previous datasets, the effect of the economic recession of 2008/09 can be seen. In March 2005 prior to the ‘Credit Crunch’ the unemployment rate in Northampton was just 3.5%, compared to 4.3% regionally and 4.8% nationally. 6.3.16 Whilst unemployment in Northampton has worsened as a result of the prevailing economic conditions, Northampton has been shown to be more robust than the regional and national position which would add support for the proposals to increase the employment offer in the town as part of the mixed-use development. Education 6.3.17 Local Authorities have a statutory duty to secure sufficient school places within its area. The school that any particular child attends is a matter of parental choice and availability of capacity at the selected school. It is, however, always subject to the overriding requirements of any published admission criteria that the school has, as well as an appeals procedure for individual pupils. 6.3.18 The proposed development of circa 750 new dwellings will generate additional school-aged children and will therefore have implications for local education provision. It is difficult to accurately estimate the number of children that will occupy these dwellings. This is because some children will arrive as migrants to the town, whilst others will simply be part of families moving to the site from existing residential areas in the town, thus not adding to the total number of children in the area. 6.3.19 Northampton is served by no fewer than 69 schools of various type and size, covering all age groups and ability. An assessment of school capacities of those schools identified to be located within the catchment area of the Application Site has been provided by the Northamptonshire Education Authority and the findings of which are located in Figure 6.1. The existing and anticipated education capacity in Northampton will inform S106 negotiations with regards to the level of developer contributions to support education provision linked to the Proposed Development. Open Space, Sports and Recreation 6.3.20 Green spaces play a critical role in enhancing the quality of life for Northampton’s communities by improving the appearance of settlements, offering places of recreation, sport and play as well as providing essential ‘breathing space’. 6.3.21 The NPPF is the national guidance relating to such provision in new developments. The NPPF states that planning policies should be based on robust and up-to-date assessments of the needs for open space, sports and recreation facilities and opportunities for new provision. The assessments should identify specific needs and quantitative or qualitative deficits or surpluses of open space, sports and recreational facilities in the local area. It continues to say that information gained from the assessments should be used to determine what open space, sports and recreational provision is required.

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AVON NUNN MILLS ENVIRONMENTAL STATEMENT Socio-economics 6.3.22 West Northamptonshire Joint Planning Unit published a Sports Facilities Strategy for West Northamptonshire in April 2009 as part of the emerging Core Strategy evidence base. The study provided a comprehensive local assessment and strategy for sports facilities in West Northamptonshire. It noted that the population of West Northamptonshire is due for significant growth as a result of proposals in its major towns, including Northampton. It was anticpated that this growth will have a significant impact on the provision of sports facilities in the area. The Study highlights that at present there is a surplus stock of facilities in Northampton. 6.3.23 The Parks and Open Spaces Strategy for Northampton was published in November 2009 and provides a background to the local provision of amenity open space in the town. The Study identifies that Northampton has 21 identified Parks; 496 Amenity Green Spaces, of which over 50 are larger than 1 hectare; 111 Natural or Semi Natural areas; over 100 children or young peoples equipped play spaces; 178 Outdoor Sports Facilities, 23 Allotment Sites; and 45 cemeteries and churchyards. These make up over 1,670 hectares of green space. Figure 6.2 shows more clearly the current provision of open space in Northampton by location. Local Retail Provision 6.3.24 Northampton is considered to be a ‘Regional Town Centre’ according to the emerging Joint Core Strategy. Northampton is well served by existing comparison and convenience retail units. However, much of this retail provision comes from out-of-town locations situated around the wider urban area of Northampton. As such, the town centre itself is currently underperforming, especially in the wake of competition from external retail networks such as Milton Keynes. Crime 6.3.25 Northampton is served by two Police Stations and figures released by Northamptonshire Police indicate that the town has a higher than average crime rate as shown in Table 6.6 below: Table 6.6: Northampton Crime Statistics (January 2013) AntiSocial

Robbery

Burglary

Vehicle Crime

Violent Crime

Other Crimes

All Crimes

Total Crime

304

13

43

32

113

7

820

Crime Rate

15.44

0.66

2.18

1.68

5.74

0.36

41.65

Crime Level

High

Above Average

Above Average

Above Average

High

Average

High

Source: Northamptonshire Police, 2013

6.3.26 In addition to the wider context of Northampton, a detailed investigation of the Application Site and immediate surroundings has been undertaken. Figures obtained from the Force Crime Reduction Analyst at Northamptonshire Police highlights the crime statistics covering a 500m radius of the Avon Cosmetics site:  Avon Cosmetics is within St Crispin Ward. This ward is ranked 2 nd for all crime and 2nd for anti-social behaviour when compared to 23 wards in Northampton.  St Crispin Ward is ranked 2nd for all crime and 2nd for anti-social behaviour when compared to 23 wards in Northamptonshire.  The area to the south falls within Delapre Ward. This ward is ranked 5 th for all crime and 9th for anti-social behaviour when compared to 23 wards in Northampton.

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AVON NUNN MILLS ENVIRONMENTAL STATEMENT Socio-economics  Delapre Ward is ranked 7th for all crime and 12th for anti-social behaviour when compared to 144 wards in Northamptonshire. Health 6.3.27 Northampton is served by the Northampton General Hospital, BMI Three Shires Hospital and St. Andrew’s Hospital all of which are within 5 miles of the Proposed Development. These hospital centres provide numerous facilities and services including Accident and Emergency, Neurology and Cardiology. 6.3.28 In terms of primary care, Northampton is primarily served by some 33 GP practices, 46 dentists, 52 pharmacies and 22 opticians.5 6.3.29 Table 6.7 below highlights the capacity of those GP surgeries within 2 miles of the Application Site. Table 6.7: Local GP Surgery Services Capacity

5

Surgery

Distance from Site

Accepting New Patients

No. of GP’s

Number of Patients on Roll*

No. of GP’s Required to Serve Patients on Roll based on NHS Average of 1,800 Persons Per GP

Surplus / Deficit

Maple Access Partnership LLP NN1 1LG The Mounts Medical Centre NN1 3DS Abingdon Park Surgery NN1 5LT Delapre Medical Centre NN4 8QF Leicester Terrace Health Care Centre NN2 6AL Kind Edward Road Surgery NN1 5LY Langham Place Surgery NN2 6AA County Surgery NN1 4QA Crescent Medical Centre NN1 4SB Penvale Park Medical Centre NN4 0GP Queensview Medical Centre NN2 6LS

0.42 miles away

Yes

2

5,323

2.9 (rounded to 3)

-1 GP

0.9 miles away

Yes

7

13,929

7.7 (rounded to 8)

-1 GP

1.01 miles away

Yes

6

12,032

6.7 (rounded to 7)

-1 GP

1.11 miles away

Yes

7

16,804

9.3 (rounded to 9)

-2 GPs

1.11 miles away

Yes

6

12,643

7.0 (rounded to 7)

- 1 GP

1.14 miles away

Yes

7

10,358

5.7 (rounded to 6)

+1 GP

1.17 miles away

Yes

6

8,988

4.9 (rounded to 5)

+1 GP

1.28 miles away

Yes

2

3,925

2.2 (rounded to 2)

+/- 0

1.36 miles away

Yes

2

3,700

2.1 (rounded to 2)

+/- 0

1.53 miles away

Yes

2

4,128

2.3 (rounded to 2)

+/- 0

1.67 miles away

Yes

5

8,789

4.9 (rounded to 5)

+/- 0

NHS Choices Website

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AVON NUNN MILLS ENVIRONMENTAL STATEMENT Socio-economics Clarence Avenue Surgery NN2 6NZ

1.71 miles away

Yes

2

4,645

2.6 (rounded to 3)

-1 GP

Abington Medical Centre NN3 2JG The Surgery NN5 7AQ Kingsthorpe Medical Centre NN2 7JN Greenview Surgery NN2 7PB Park Avenue Medical Centre NN3 2HZ

1.73 miles away

Yes

7

13,443

7.5 (rounded to 8)

-1 GP

1.76 miles away

Yes

5

19,636

10.9 (rounded to 11)

-6 GPs

1.82 miles away

Yes

2

5,773

3.2 (rounded to 3)

-1 GP

1.87 miles away

Yes

7

Unknown

Unknown

unknown

1.91 miles away

Yes

6

Unknown

Unknown

unknown

-

79.9 (rounded to 80)

-13

-

(68 not including last two surgeries)

143,845

TOTALS

Source: NHS Choices, Public Health Authority and Telephone interviews with surgery practice managers

6.4

Likely Significant Effects Construction

6.4.1

The proposed development will generate additional employment for construction workers in the area. This will result in continued employment for subcontractors in the town and for those outside the immediate area. However, the resident population is unlikely to change significantly from the present levels in this regard.

6.4.2

It is estimated that the construction phases will last at least 10 years including site preparation and infrastructure provision, although this may be reduced with multiple developers. There may be an increased demand for temporary accommodation, depending on the level and availability of locally sourced labour and phasing with the construction of other large schemes in the locality. This will arise primarily during weekdays for temporary construction workers.

6.4.3

750 new homes are also estimated to generate 1,125 jobs (i.e. person years) for their construction – at a ratio of 1.5 person years per dwelling derived by the Home Builders Federation and Construction Industry Training Board (Ball, M, 2010, The Labour Needs of Extra Housing Output) – and up to 3,000 indirect jobs (i.e. person years at a rate of 4 indirect jobs per dwelling) in the wider economy in primary, manufacturing and service industries within the supply chain.

6.4.4

In light of the above calculations, it can be anticipated that the potential effect of the construction works, in socio-economic terms, would have a Major Beneficial effect on a local to regional scale. It is considered that the employment generated during the construction phase will have a Major Beneficial effect on the local economy.

6.4.5

In terms of the likely construction effects upon the other areas identified within this chapter (Population, Housing Need, Employment, Education, Local Shopping, Open Space and Health services) it is considered that there will be neither adverse nor beneficial effects upon these aspects during the construction phase of the Proposed Development therefore the significance of effects would be Neutral.

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AVON NUNN MILLS ENVIRONMENTAL STATEMENT Socio-economics 6.5

Operational Effects Population Effects

6.5.1

The Proposed Development will deliver 750 new homes which at an average household size of 2.34 persons will accommodate a population of 1,755 persons. In future the average household size is anticipated to reduce further due to consistent national trends including young adults moving out of the parent home, increases in relationship breakdown and divorce, people choosing to have fewer children and many older people who outlive their partners are continuing to live alone for significantly longer than older people lived in the past 6. As such, looking further ahead, the Proposed Development can be expected to generate a population of approximately 1,613 people based on an average household of 2.15 7. In planning for the provision of facilities the potential of the comparatively reduced overall requirement should be taken into account when assessed against current household size-derived projections.

6.5.2

The development will include a range of house types including flats, terraced, semi-detached and detached properties, as well as a range of sizes and tenures (including affordable housing provision) to provide for a variety of household requirements amongst the local population.

6.5.3

The Proposed Development will inevitably increase the local ward population. Whilst a proportion of the people that will live at the new development will be new to the town, a significant number will choose to move from other parts of the town including a number of people from newly-formed households from the existing population. Increased demand for facilities and services will therefore not necessarily correspond directly with the anticipated population of the development.

6.5.4

The Proposed Development is planned on the requirements identified in a sound local evidencebase, much of which has informed the emerging Core Strategy. As such, the likely effects on the demographic profile of Northampton are anticipated and can be effectively mitigated by ensuring that sufficient community infrastructure is in place to serve the new and existing populations. Such community infrastructure is planned within the Application Site and will be brought forward during the development, or may be the subject of off-site financial contributions through S106 negotiations.

6.5.5

The proposed residential scheme, with its proximity to the town centre and the linked proposals for new employment and retail opportunities, will influence where people choose to live and work and combined with the Council’s aspiration to regenerate Northampton’s Waterside could ultimately make Northampton a more desirable place to live.

6.5.6

It is anticipated that those residents and businesses attracted to the Proposed Development will have a Major Beneficial effect on the demographic profile of the local area. Housing

6.5.7

The proposed development of 750 new dwellings would contribute towards the housing requirements that have been identified for Northampton within the emerging Joint Core Strategy (February 2011) and its associated evidence-base. As identified in Table 6.4 above, Northampton (as a whole) has a current need for some 31,000 new dwellings to 2026.

6.5.8

The development of 750 new dwellings would make an important and necessary contribution towards the supply of open market and affordable housing in Northampton as a whole in the period to 2026 and beyond.

6.5.9

The mix of market and affordable housing will be subject to negotiation with the Local Planning Authority (LPA) subject to viability in accordance with the NPPF. It is anticipated that the provision of affordable housing will be determined in the context of the wider mixed-use development and infrastructure provision, subject to project viability.

6 7

West Northamptonshire Strategic Housing Market Assessment, May 2010 South Northants Council, Strategic Housing Team Growth Report (August 2008)

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AVON NUNN MILLS ENVIRONMENTAL STATEMENT Socio-economics 6.5.10 The housing provision is considered to constitute a Major Beneficial effect for Northampton in terms of meeting part of the overall housing requirement of the existing population (as set out in the emerging Core Strategy) as well as increasing the numbers of affordable housing units. Employment 6.5.11 The Proposed Development includes approximately 1.4 hectare of Class B1 (office) employment and 0.3 hectares of mixed A1/A3 Class (retail / restaurant) provision in accordance with the emerging Core Strategy. Based on the calculations of the Employment Densities Guide (2010), Table 6.8 indicates the level of employment anticipated to be generated from the provision of employment land and additional uses within the proposed Local / Neighbourhood Centres within the Proposed Development. Table 6.8: Anticipated Employment Generation Land Use

Site Area (ha)

Use Class

60% Developable Area

GEA (sqm) (0.4 plot ratio)

Job Ratio (sqm)

Full Time Employment (FTE)

Office

1.4

B1

N/A*

10,000

12

833

Retail

0.15

A1

0.6

360

19

19

Restaurant

0.15

A3

0.6

360

18

20

Total

1.5

-

-

-

-

872

*Typical ‘developable areas’ will not apply in this instance as it is proposed to provide higher density office accommodation Source: Employment Densities Guide 2010 2nd Edition

6.5.12 Table 6.8 therefore indicates that approximately 872 direct FTE new jobs are expected to be generated by the Proposed Development. 6.5.13 The provision of employment opportunities on site is important in supporting the sustainable credentials and self-containment of the scheme. The retail offer is relatively small, only acting to serve the immediate community’s day-to-day needs. This is to ensure that retail trade is not taken away from the town centre which, as highlighted above, is already struggling to compete with out-of-town retail centres. 6.5.14 Additional employment will also be generated by the additional local facilities and by the construction industry. 6.5.15 The general aim of the emerging Core Strategy, across a number of policy strategies, is to achieve a continued transition of the local economy towards a more diversified economy with a greater emphasis placed on the service sector, knowledge / service-based activities and hightechnology manufacturing, with a wider range of job opportunities in accessible locations to reduce out-commuting and provide greater self-containment. 6.5.16 The employment development proposals have been located to maximise accessibility to the transport network and enhance its commercial attractiveness to a broad range of employment activities. The socio-economic impact of the Proposed Development, when taken collectively with the delivery of housing and employment development and related infrastructure, has the potential for Major Beneficial economic effects on the area. In addition, the future sustainable transport link along the old rail corridor will provide a pedestrian and cycle link to the proposed Brackmills Sustainable Urban Extension to the south and potentially to the new rail station to the west. The proposals will therefore help to promote enhanced sustainable connectivity for the new communities of Northampton and with it, commercial investment in the town.

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AVON NUNN MILLS ENVIRONMENTAL STATEMENT Socio-economics 6.5.17 It is therefore considered that the employment provision provided by the Proposed Development and related infrastructure would have a direct Major Beneficial effect on job creation, particularly given the unemployment rates currently experienced as a result of the 2008-2009 recession and ‘double dip’ in 2012. Education 6.5.18 The proposed development of 750 new dwellings will generate additional school-aged children, and will therefore have implications for local education provision. In estimating the number of additional children as a result of the Proposed Development care should be exercised. Some children will arrive as migrants to the area, whilst others will be part of families moving to the site from other parts of the town, thus not adding to the total number of children in the area. 6.5.19 As identified above, a full assessment of the current and future capacities of the schools within the catchment area of the Application Site will need to be undertaken in order to inform the background evidence upon which future capacities and therefore education provision estimates can be assessed. 6.5.20 Using the calculations from the Northampton County Council Planning Obligations Framework and Guidance SPD (March 2011) and an indicative dwelling mix as set out below in Table 6.9 it is possible to estimate the number of children likely to be generated by the Proposed Development. Table 6.9 – Indicative Number of Pupils Generated by Proposed Development

House Type

No. of Dwellings

Early Years

Primary

Secondary

Sixth Form

2 bed

187

2

8

4

1

3 bed

188

15

53

24

3

4 bed

188

34

119

46

4

5 bed

187

35

121

81

17

Total

750

86

301

155

25

6.5.21 Until such time as a full assessment of the current school capacities has been undertaken it is not possible to calculate what the effect of the Proposed Development might be on existing education provision in Northampton and in particular the likely additional provision that may need to be provided on-site or through developer contributions to enable off-site provision to serve the new development. 6.5.22 Northamptonshire Education Authority have previously advised that whichever residential development comes forward first, be it on the Avon Nunn Mills or Ransome Road site, land for a school site will be required to be transferred to the County Council at the earliest opportunity in order to construct a new school. Contributions will be expected from both developments in order to pay towards construction. However, consistent with Northampton Borough Council’s Masterplan for the Avon / Nunn Mills / Ransome Road development area, it is now anticipated that the new primary school will be delivered to the south of the former railway corridor, within the Ransome Road scheme to the south.

CIR.P.0847 Pegasus Group Ltd

March 2013

AVON NUNN MILLS ENVIRONMENTAL STATEMENT Socio-economics Local Community and Retail Facilities 6.5.23 Access to existing shops, services and community facilities in the locality by means other than the private car is already good. As identified within the baseline information, Northampton currently has a good retail offer within the town centre, but this service is struggling to compete with out-oftown centres and larger settlements like Milton Keynes. The location of the Proposed Development being within striking distance of the town centre will increase the resident population likely to use Northampton’s retail services and is therefore seen as vital to improving the viability and vitality of the town centre. 6.5.24 The town centre is a sustainable location and is accessible by car, bus and is within walking distance of many of the town’s residents. 6.5.25 The Proposed Development includes the provision of new mixed use local facilities, which will complement and enhance the retail and community services available to those within the new development area. They are not designed to be large enough to compete with the town centre or the existing local centres, but only to provide for the day-to-day needs of the local community. It is considered that within the Proposed Development, there would be sufficient scope to justify the provision of retail floorspace to support the Proposed Development without detracting from the primacy of the town centre. The provision of retail floorspace within the Proposed Development is supported within the emerging Joint Core Strategy as part of the essential community infrastructure to serve the new community. 6.5.26 The proposed community / retail facilities will have suitable linkages with Ransome Road and also with the town centre so as to be accessible on foot and by public transport in order to reduce travel by private car, thereby promoting more sustainable modes of travel. 6.5.27 The Proposed Development is likely to increase the population and with it potential spending power in Northampton to the benefit of the town centre. 6.5.28 The Community use site within the Application Site has the potential to deliver a new community hall to meet the local demand for this type of facility that is likely to be generated by the proposed development. 6.5.29 It is anticipated that the local facilities will complement the town centre retail facilities rather than compete for trade, thereby helping to sustain the vitality of the town as a whole. It is also considered that the additional population and workforce living and working at the site would benefit the town centre by supporting continued spending and investment in the area. This is considered to be a Moderate Beneficial effect of the Proposed Development. Crime 6.5.30 The Proposed Development aims to regenerate a deprived area of the town which currently suffers from some of the highest crime rates in the County. 6.5.31 The Proposed Development is for Outline permission and as such it is not appropriate to set out the specific details that will be incorporated into the scheme’s design to ensure the highest degree of safety and security within the new development. However, the indicative scheme has been drawn up to show how crime prevention measures can be incorporated into the design and layout of the site. The design has been based on an understanding of Best Practice, and particular reference is made to the guidance contained within established publications, including ‘Safer Places: The Planning System’ and ‘Manual for Streets’ (Association of Chief Police Officers (ACPO)), ‘New Homes 2010’ guidance, ‘Planning Out Crime in Northamptonshire’ (2003) and ‘Secured by Design’. 6.5.32 The incorporation of established Best Practice and the wider regeneration of the Nunn Mills area is anticipated to assist in the reduction in crime within the wider area which in turn is considered to constitute a Moderate Beneficial effect.

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March 2013

AVON NUNN MILLS ENVIRONMENTAL STATEMENT Socio-economics Open Space, Sports and Recreation 6.5.33 The increase in the population as a consequence of the Proposed Development will lead to an additional demand for both formal and informal open space. 6.5.34 The amount of open space provided is based on the anticipated recreational needs of the new community at Avon Nunn Mills. The public open space has been calculated against policy aspirations and land availability within the Application Site, equating to the provision of 3.5ha of public open space. 6.5.35 As highlighted above, Northampton is currently blessed with good open space provision to serve its existing population. The proposed open space provision within the Application Site is intended to complement the existing offer whilst having consideration to the Application Site’s constraints in terms of its urban setting. 6.5.36 Consultation with NBC has informed the approach to public open space provision, on the basis that Avon Nunn Mills lies at the centre of several important green open spaces: Becket’s Park to the north west, Midsummer Meadows to the north east, and Delapre Park to the south. Further east is the Upper Nene Valley, a popular destination for walkers. 6.5.37 The new community at Avon Nunn Mills will be provided with small-scale open spaces such as pocket parks for safe play and informal recreation and there will be provision for walking and cycling through landscaped areas along the river frontage with connections along the multifunctional linear green spaces which will be provided throughout the site. There will eventually be onward links via bridges over the River Nene (although the bridges will not be built as part of this scheme), and along the disused railway corridor which is planned to become a sustainable transport corridor, as well as southwards across the railway corridor to Delapre Park and Abbey. 6.5.38 Within the application site all proposed residential development will be within 300m of a green space whilst also benefiting from the significant existing open space and amenities within close proximity. 6.5.39 In combination with access to nearby areas of open space and recreation, the proposed open space provision is considered to be sufficient to serve the new population of the Proposed Development, and is therefore considered to constitute a Moderate Beneficial effect. Health Facilities 6.5.40 With a likely increase in population of up to approximately 1,755 people, the Proposed Development of up to 750 dwellings would create the demand for approximately 0.98 (rounded to 1) additional GPs based on the national average of 1,800 patients per GP. 6.5.41 An analysis of existing healthcare provision in the vicinity of the application site, as detailed above, has identified that Northampton currently has a deficit of primary healthcare provision. 6.5.42 It is therefore proposed to apply for a D1 use within the local centre which could be used for a medical health centre if required by the LPA. Unless an appropriate health facility is provided on site or appropriate financial contributions provided towards existing off-site health provision, then the proposed development is likely to have a Major Adverse effect on local health provision in Northampton. Should the provision of health facilities on-site be forthcoming then the proposed development is likely to have a Neutral effect on health care in Northampton as the site would be self-sufficient in this respect. Likewise, if a suitable off-site financial contribution were made to improve health facilities nearby, then the effect on health would also be assessed as being Neutral.

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March 2013

AVON NUNN MILLS ENVIRONMENTAL STATEMENT Socio-economics 6.6

Mitigation and Enhancement

6.6.1

The Proposed Development provides for housing (including affordable housing) which will meet local housing need. This would be supported by other uses which would meet the day-to-day needs of residents including employment, community and retail needs.

6.6.2

It is anticipated that there may be a requirement for mitigation in respect of appropriate financial contributions being provided towards health facilities and suitable links to off-site open space.

6.7

Cumulative Effects

6.7.1

In assessing the anticipated socio-economic effects of the proposed development, due consideration has been paid to the cumulative effects of those developments (existing and proposed) identified in Chapter 2: Environmental Impact Assessment: Process at paragraph 2.7 as set out below. Ransome Road, Nunn Mills

6.7.2

The Ransome Road site completes the Avon Nunn Mills allocation to deliver the complete regeneration of this former industrial site.

6.7.3

The Ransome Road element of the Avon / Nunn Mills / Ransome Road area is subject to a resolution to grant consent for approximately 800 residential dwellings under planning application references 06/0016/OUTWNN and N/2004/0510. Although it is known that a revised scheme for the Ransome Road site is currently being prepared which will reduce the overall number of dwellings on this site, the details are not yet within the public domain. As such, it is appropriate that an assessment of socio-economic effects be undertaken against the scheme with Resolution to Grant consent as a ‘worst-case’ scenario, and this approach has been agreed with NBC.

6.7.4

The Ransome Road proposals will deliver a significant proportion of the Avon / Nunn Mills / Ransome Road residential requirement as part of the aspirations of adopted Policy 28 of the Northampton Central Area Action Plan (CAAP) which was adopted in January 2013. The provision of approximately 800 new dwellings will potentially generate a new local population of some 1,872 people (based on an average of 2.34 persons per household). Whilst this is known to be a ‘worst-case’ scenario, it is considered likely that the new population will increase the spending power of the local population to the benefit of Northampton’s local economy.

6.7.5

The Ransome Road scheme is not expected to provide any commercial floorspace on site as such provision is to be delivered on the Avon Nunn Mills site north of the railway as part of the proposals to regenerate Northampton’s Waterside and encourage investment into the town.

6.7.6

The Ransome Road development will be fully integrated with the adjacent Avon Nunn Mills site via good pedestrian, cycle and vehicular links and the new sustainable transport corridor along the disused railway line.

6.7.7

It is the aspiration of Northampton Borough Council that a new Primary School, to serve both north (Avon Nunn Mills) and south (Ransome Road) will be delivered on the Ransome Road element of the allocation.

6.7.8

It is considered that the delivery of the Ransome Road scheme would be consistent with a planned approach to development within Northampton as part of the CAAP which will help to achieve a number of strategic aspirations for the area. Such complementary developments are considered to constitute a Major Beneficial cumulative effect. Green Street Innovation Centre,

6.7.9

The Green Street Innovation Centre was granted planning permission on 16 th March 2012 for a new six storey office building comprising 3,737sqm of office space (LPA reference: N/2011/1147) (WNDC Reference: 11/0067/FULWNN). The building would also feature a cafe and function

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March 2013

AVON NUNN MILLS ENVIRONMENTAL STATEMENT Socio-economics space upon the ground floor. The purpose of the development is to promote and facilitate growth in new and existing businesses within Northampton, work in conjunction with companies located within the Enterprise Zone and provide greater linkages between business and academia in the form of Northampton University. 6.7.10 The development is allocated as part of the ‘Waterside Regeneration Area’ of Northampton. Cumulatively, the proposed development combined with the Innovation Centre is considered to assist in the delivery of the regeneration of Northampton’s Waterside. The consented scheme links well with the proposed development and would support the wider economic viability and vitality of the Northampton’s Waterside and as such is considered to constitute a Moderate Beneficial cumulative effect. Midsummer Meadows Boat Restaurant 6.7.11 An application for a permanent Boat Restaurant on the River Nene at Midsummer Meadows was approved by Northampton Borough Council, subject to conditions, on 8th April 2010. 6.7.12 The proposal is small in nature. Northampton Borough Council have highlighted it as a relevant cumulative scheme to be assessed as part of the Environmental Statement. 6.7.13 It is considered that the River Boat Restaurant will link well with the aspirations of the Council to bring people back to the Waterside by providing leisure and recreational opportunities and as such is consistent with the objectives of the proposed development. The River Boat Restaurant scheme is therefore considered to constitute a Moderate Beneficial cumulative effect. 6.7.14 The following schemes are not subject to live planning applications or decisions, but have nonetheless been identified by Northampton Borough Council as suitable for cumulative assessment. Project Angel 6.7.15 Project Angel involves the building of a new Council office in Northampton Town Centre, thereby consolidating staff from 12 existing council buildings in the Northampton area. 6.7.16 Project Angel is currently in the pre-tender stage of the development process and an application is not likely to be submitted before December 2013/January 2014. 6.7.17 The project is designed to be a catalyst for the regeneration of Northampton Town Centre showcasing Northampton as a major investor, boosting construction and stimulating growth within the Enterprise Zone. The scheme will eventually increase local employment opportunities during both the construction stage (which is expected to promote and make best use of the Council’s apprenticeship initiatives) and longer term employment through additional economic activity being brought into the town centre. 6.7.18 Therefore, in the longer term, Project Angel is considered to comply with the regeneration aspirations of Northampton Town Centre which will be intrinsically linked with those objectives of rejuvenating the Waterside, including the proposed development. Project Angel is therefore considered to constitute a Moderate Beneficial cumulative effect by assisting in promoting investment into Northampton in the medium to longer term. Waterside Way, Bedford Road 6.7.19 The Waterside Way scheme is not yet a formal planning submission although a screening opinion for 120 dwellings has been submitted to Northampton Borough Council (Reference: N/2012/0813). 6.7.20 The site comprises approximately 3.2 hectares of land off the Bedford Road to the east of Northampton. The site is accessed off a recently built roundabout that serves the Phase 1

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AVON NUNN MILLS ENVIRONMENTAL STATEMENT Socio-economics Waterside Way office development. The proposed Waterside Way residential development will therefore complement the mixed development of this part of the town. 6.7.21 The Upper Nene Valley Gravel Pits Site of Special Scientific Interest (SSSI) and Special Protection Area (SPA) for birds is located directly to the east of the site. 6.7.22 It is considered that the development of 120 dwellings to the east of the application site would assist in the regeneration objectives of central Northampton, especially along the Waterside bringing the length of the River Nene back into active use and encouraging further investment in to the town. Therefore, from a socio-economic perspective the Waterside Way development is considered to constitute a Moderate Beneficial cumulative effect. However, the development is likely to bring additional recreational pressures from walkers (especially those with dogs) and leisure seekers on the sensitive ecological Upper Nene Valley Gravel Pits SSSI / SPA. The cumulative effect of the proposed development and Waterside Way is therefore considered to have a Moderate Adverse cumulative effect upon this sensitive ecological area. Brackmills Sustainable Urban Extension 6.7.23 The Brackmills Sustainable Urban Extension (SUE) forms part of the strategic vision for the emerging West Northamptonshire Joint Core Strategy (WNJCS) for the period up to 2026. The development proposes a new SUE comprising up to 1,000 dwellings, mixed-use local centres, a new Primary School, public open space and associated infrastructure to the south of Northampton. The Brackmills site lies approximately 2km south east of the application site at Avon Nunn Mills. 6.7.24 A planning application for the Brackmills SUE is anticipated to be submitted imminently in March / April 2013. Cumulatively therefore the proposed development at Avon Nunn Mills and that at Brackmills has the potential for significant cumulative effects. 6.7.25 The Brackmills SUE is located just 3km from the town centre and benefits from the Brackmills employment area adjacent to the north. 6.7.26 The Brackmills SUE is consistent with the strategic vision for Northampton and will assist in the delivery of much needed housing and local infrastructure. As such, it is considered that the SUE will constitute a Moderate Beneficial cumulative effect when considered in combination with the proposed development at Avon Nunn Mills. Grosvenor Centre Redevelopment 6.7.27 The Grosvenor Centre constitutes a significant part of the retail frontage within Northampton’s Central Area. According to the CAAP it is one of the biggest and most important development sites within and adjacent to the Primary Shopping Area of the Central Area. 6.7.28 The Grosvenor Centre site redevelopment provides an opportunity for a logical extension and remodelling of the principal purpose-built shopping centre within Northampton’s centre. The redevelopment is considered by Northampton Borough Council to be critical to sustaining Northampton town centre’s competitiveness as a retail destination and in delivering the Central Area vision. 6.7.29 The CAAP sets out that the Grosvenor Centre redevelopment will comprise of 37,000sqm (gross) retail floorspace plus ancillary uses including restaurant / leisure floorspace as an extension to the existing primary shopping area and provide a mix of other main town centre uses, such as offices, leisure and entertainment, hotel and residential development. 6.7.30 The plans for the Grosvenor Centre are not yet in planning as the viability of the scheme is uncertain at this point in time. Northampton Borough Council is working closely with the landowners to deliver the scheme and a planning application is anticipated to be submitted, subject to overcoming viability issues, towards the end of 2013.

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March 2013

AVON NUNN MILLS ENVIRONMENTAL STATEMENT Socio-economics 6.7.31 The Grosvenor Centre redevelopment will provide the opportunity to accommodate a range of other town centre uses to reinforce the role of the Central Area and provide potential for significant improvements to the townscape. The regeneration of Northampton’s town centre will ensure appropriate employment opportunities to serve the existing and proposed new population, ensuring low out-commuting and high retention rates within the town whilst also providing an attractive leisure and recreational offer encouraging people to spend their money within the town itself, rather than travelling to other large retail centres in the region such as Milton Keynes which they currently do. 6.7.32 The Grosvenor Centre redevelopment is considered to be vital to the regeneration of Northampton’s town centre and the success of the strategic vision for the town and as such the complementary and cumulative effects when considered in combination with the proposed development are considered to be Moderate Beneficial. 6.8

Summary

6.8.1

The Proposed Development would have a Major Beneficial effect on the area by providing much-needed residential provision for the area and bringing forward opportunities for 1,125 direct construction jobs, up to 3,000 indirect construction jobs and 872 direct FTE new jobs following the completion of the Proposed Development. This would make an important contribution to the supply of jobs within Northampton and provides the opportunity to enhance the self-containment of the town and continue the sustainable trend of limiting outward commuting patterns.

6.8.2

The Proposed Development provides for appropriate supporting uses in the form of mixed-use Local Centres (with provision for retail and community facilities) and areas of public open space for recreation and amenity to meet the day-to-day needs of the development. S106 contributions are likely to be the subject of negotiations to secure other improvements to public transport and community infrastructure where necessary.

6.8.3

Overall the Proposed Development is considered to represent a Significant and Major Beneficial contribution towards the strategy for residential and employment regeneration within Northampton and the wider district.

CIR.P.0847 Pegasus Group Ltd

March 2013