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PRACTICAL NOTE

Beating storms and droughts: the Erdenedalai weather network in the Mongolian Gobi Wang Xiaoli and Ronnie Vernooy Although herders in Mongolia are embracing modernity, their livelihoods remain largely dependent on the weather and resulting grassland conditions. In recent years, natural resource degradation has made livestock production more risky. Severe weather events such as storms, droughts, and extremely harsh winters have been on the increase. Timely and adequate weather forecasts could help herders to cope more effectively with these changing circumstances. The Erdenedalai weather and early warning network in the Gobi desert represents a unique initiative to read the weather more carefully. Through collective action, the network is contributing to reduce risks and improve pastoral management practices. Vaincre les tempeˆtes et les se´cheresses : le re´seau me´te´orologique Erdenedalai dans le Gobi mongolien Les bergers de Mongolie ont beau se tourner vers la modernite´, leurs moyens de subsistance restent ne´anmoins largement tributaires des conditions me´te´orologiques et de leurs effets sur l’e´tat des prairies. Au cours des quelques dernie`res anne´es, la de´gradation des ressources naturelles a rendu la production animale plus risque´e. Les phe´nome`nes me´te´orologiques graves comme les tempeˆtes, les se´cheresses et des hivers extreˆmement rigoureux sont devenus plus fre´quents. Des pre´visions me´te´orologiques opportunes et ade´quates pourraient aider les bergers a` s’adapter de manie`re plus efficace a` ces circonstances en mutation. Le re´seau me´te´orologique et d’alerte pre´coce Erdenedalai dans le de´sert du Gobi repre´sente une initiative sans pareille pour mieux interpre´ter les conditions me´te´orologiques. A` travers une action collective, ce re´seau contribue a` la re´duction des risques et a` l’ame´lioration des pratiques pastorales de gestion. Combatendo tempestades e secas: a rede clima´tica de Erdenedalaiem em Gobi, na Mongo´lia Embora pastores da Mongo´lia sejam favora´veis a` modernidade, seus meios de subsisteˆncia permanecem altamente dependentes do clima e das condic¸o˜es resultantes do pasto. Nos u´ltimos anos, a degradac¸a˜o de recursos naturais tem tornado a produc¸a˜o de gado mais arriscada. Eventos clima´ticos difı´ceis, como tempestades, secas e invernos extremamente rigorosos teˆm aumentado. Previso˜es do tempo oportunas e adequadas poderiam ajudar os pastores a lidar de maneira mais efetiva com estas circunstaˆncias varia´veis. A rede clima´tica e de alerta com antecedeˆncia de Erdenedalai no deserto de Gobi representa uma iniciativa u´nica para 104

ISSN 0961-4524 Print/ISSN 1364-9213 Online 010104-6 # 2012 Taylor & Francis http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/09614524.2012.630986 Routledge Publishing

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interpretar o clima de maneira mais cuidadosa. Atrave´s de ac¸a˜o coletiva, a rede esta´ contribuindo para reduzir riscos e melhorar as pra´ticas de gerenciamento de pastoreio. Superando tormentas y sequı´as: la red meteorolo´gica Erdenedalai en el Gobi de Mongolia Si bien los pastores de Mongolia han entrado a la modernidad, su modo de vida depende en gran parte del clima y de sus efectos en las praderas. En los u´ltimos an˜os, la degradacio´n de los recursos naturales ha ocasionado un mayor riesgo para la ganaderı´a. Los feno´menos meteorolo´gicos graves, como tormentas, sequı´as e inviernos especialmente severos, se han incrementado. Los prono´sticos meteorolo´gicos oportunos y certeros ayudarı´an a los pastores a enfrentar estos cambios. La red meteorolo´gica de alerta temprana Erdenedalai en el desierto de Gobi es una iniciativa u´nica para pronosticar el tiempo con mayor precisio´n. A trave´s del trabajo colectivo, la red esta´ ayudando a reducir los riesgos y mejorar las pra´cticas de gestio´n de los pastores.

KEY WORDS : Environment; Labour and livelihoods; East Asia

Reading the weather Pastoral livelihoods in Mongolia are subject to often unpredictable and sometimes harsh forces of nature, and in more recent times, of a rapidly modernising society. Herders are moving from season to season – ‘following their animals’ as they say – always dependent on the vagaries of the dry weather and the resulting grassland conditions. Their livelihoods, although gradually changing to new patterns, continue to be centred on livestock-raising. They have to deal with increasingly degraded and/or scarce natural resources. Water, in particular, has become a scarce and frequently contested resource in most parts of the country. Impacts of climate change have become more visible, first observed and felt by herders about a decade ago, and only more recently addressed by the government and by national and international agencies operating in the country (Ministry of Nature, Environment and Tourism 2009). In the last decade, several severe weather events, in particular storms, drought, and extremely hard winters known as dzud, have been on the rise. The 2010 dzud was catastrophic, resulting in huge animal losses and thousands of destroyed livelihoods (UN Mongolia Country Team 2010). Unpredictability of these (extreme) weather events in a still largely nomadic society has always been a major issue to deal with, but now seems to be gaining more weight in herders’ everyday lives (Enkhbat 2010; Marin 2010; Vernooy and Wang 2010). To date, local herders across most of Mongolia have not been receiving and benefitting from location-specific weather forecasts. This represents one of the major challenges related to climate risk management (Government of Mongolia and UNDP Mongolia 2010). For local herder communities, the potential use of weather forecast information varies from season to season. In summer, the climate information would be useful for decision-making on planting, use of pasture land for grazing, movements to otor (pasture reserves), and stocking density and composition. In autumn and winter, the information would be useful for preparing hay and fodder, for pasture rotation (autumn), and for livestock sheltering and livestock pooling to avoid negative impacts of extreme low temperatures and heavy snow fall. In spring, information could be used for the timing of movements, use of pasture land for grazing, and stocking density and composition (Ykhanbai and Enkhbat 2006). In one sum (district) of the dry Gobi desert region, however, promising changes related to weather forecast provision are underway. The present article presents this innovative initiative and its relevance for Mongolia at large. Development in Practice, Volume 22, Number 1, February 2012

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A special tower in the desert Two hundred and eighty kilometres away from the capital city of Ulaanbaatar, following a sandy track first through the central steppe region and then into the dry steppe region known as the Gobi (govi in Mongolian means desert), the sum (county) centre of Erdenedalai comes into view. The first thing to observe is a metal transmission tower about 24m high installed on the highest point of the sum centre (1,477m above sea level), 100m higher than the sum’s ground level, located about 3.5km from the sum centre. The tower is accompanied by two small buildings, one housing the transmission equipment of the sum radio station plus a G-mobile telephone company transmitter, the other housing a transmitter of Mobi-com, Mongolia’s largest telephone company. The radio transmitter, using FM wavelengths, has a range of about 85km. G-mobile’s range is more-or-less 70km as well, while Mobi-com has a range of about 35km. Before, when these transmitters were operating from the sum centre, their range was only about 20km. The tower and equipment are part of a novel and courageous local initiative to establish a local weather and emergency warning network. This network, its functions, and mode of operation are a unique answer to Mongolia’s never ending and arduous struggle to ‘beat the weather’. Erdenedalai sum, covering an area of 735,100ha, is part of Dundgovi or Middle Gobi aimak (province). The total population of the sum is about 6,200 people (1,474 families, December 2010) of which approximately 1,100 are herder families who live dispersed across the sum. Distances between households in the rural area are large, sometimes up to 20 or 30km, owing to the pastoral way of living. The harsh environmental conditions – dry weather combined with desert-like land – only allow maintaining animals extensively. The total number of animals in the sum at present is about 330,000, with the majority goats and sheep. In the past heavy winter (known as dzud), the sum lost 43% of its animal population – equivalent to about 140,000 animals. The sum has no other economic activities other than herding. Some mineral resources such as coal, gold and copper have been discovered but exploration or exploitation has not yet started. The impact of the dzud is visible when travelling through the countryside: very large areas of empty grasslands as far as the eye can see. Pastoral livelihoods are mostly subsistence-oriented, based on household-level production of meat, milk, and other dairy products, and sale of cashmere and wool on the market. There is no crop land, although the sum government has plans to develop crop production in the coming years on a number of very small plots that have access to the scarce water sources in the area. Herders live a very isolated life with limited mobility and communication. But the weather and emergency warning network is bringing about change. The local weather and emergency warning network is the brainchild of a local herder’s son, Mr N. Togtokh, a former member of national parliament and now heading a local NGO called Animal Husbandry and Agriculture Risk Management Center. Raised in the sum and deeply concerned about the livelihoods of the local herders and the risks related to the bad weather, in 2003, Mr Togtokh mobilised support from central and local government organisations, brought together a creative professional team, and collected enough funds through public donations to build the transmission tower (at a total cost of 100 million Tugriks or US$100,000 at the 2003 exchange rate). Once the tower was built, negotiations with the two telephone companies led to extending the radio transmission function to the telecommunication function. The transmission equipment was designed by Mongolian engineers. At the start, solar energy was used to power the station. Later, a new electricity line was built from the sum centre.

A multi-purpose weather station The tower is connected to a station and studio in the sum centre: a two-room building, owned by Mongolia’s National Hydro-Meteorological Agency (NAMEM), that has been furnished by 106

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Mr Togtokh and his team with both meteorological and radio equipment (wireless, 350Mhz), designed and hand-built by Mr Togtokh’s team. Four people run the station-studio seven days a week. Two of them are employed and paid by NAMEM, two by the local NGO. It is the home-base of the network. According to Mr Togtokh, it would be feasible to set up similar station-studios and transmission towers in all sums of Mongolia. Transmission capacity would need to be adjusted according to geography and depending on the early warning time required to be prepared for extreme weather events. ‘Our station-studio is not very fancy,’ said Mr Togtokh, ‘but it is well-suited for the local conditions in the Gobi. That is the great advantage of tailor-made design’. Thirty metres from the station-studio, a series of the manual and automatic weather datagathering devices were installed, protected by a fence, for measuring air and soil temperature, wind speed, atmospheric pressure, and precipitation. This basic hydro-meteorological field station forms part of the national system operated by NAMEM. Even during the worst sand or snow-storms staff can find their way from the station to the devices by means of an iron wire extended between the building and the fence – regular daily measurements are crucial for the functions of the network and also for NAMEM. For meteorologists there is no such thing as bad weather!

The nodal weather informants The tower and the station-studio, and the staff running and maintaining them, are two of the three key components of the network. The herders are the third. Strategically located across the sum within a radius of 70km from the sum centre, there are about 30 herder households that serve as volunteer nodal weather informants. Many of them are equipped, with the support of Mr Togtokh, with a simple FM-radio receiver (automobile radios are very effective), a mobile phone, and, one by one, a fixed telephone connected to an outside antenna. To generate the required electricity to run this equipment, each household uses a solar-panel which powers a car battery. While the radio allows herders to receive weather forecast (and other relevant) information through one-way communication, the phone allows them to have two-way communication with the weather/radio station in the sum centre, and with each other. G-mobile and Mobi-com cover the costs of the local phone calls made by the nodal informants and the station-studio as payment for the renting of space in the transmission tower installation. Some of the nodal herders are also equipped with a barometer. Nodal weather informants play an important role: normally, twice a day (in the morning and in the afternoon) they inform the sum weather station, via telephone, about the basic weather conditions in their area – reporting temperature, rain fall, and wind speed, and any other important weather-related observations they have made. Of particular importance is early warning information about high-risk weather events, sand- and snow-storms in particular. Sand- and snow-storms can be deadly in the Gobi – smaller animals such as goats and sheep have limited capacity to withstand their heavy impact. Erdenedalai sum is located at the junction of two notorious strong wind corridors, which stretch from west to east and from north to south across the central Gobi region. The weather station team in the sum centre prepares daily weather forecasts, combining daily weather information received from the NAMEM meteorological centre in the aimak capital, its own field meteorological station in Erdenedalai, and the information communicated from all the nodal herders, with 24 hours’ lead-time (transmitted at 08:00 and 14:00), three-day forecasts, and weekly, monthly, and seasonal forecasts. In addition, they transmit emergency forecasts at any time of the day or night. During emergencies, the nodal informants constantly exchange information with the weather station-studio until the storm has passed. Development in Practice, Volume 22, Number 1, February 2012

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Shooting the clouds The station team, well-equipped, well-organised and strongly committed to its operations, does more than recording, analysing, and transmitting weather data, though. They are also doing their very best to make or modify the weather. Given the extremely dry weather conditions of the Gobi, they decided to make use of a well-known Chinese technology: firing off special rockets (filled with chemicals that increase the weight of rain drops) to shoot into rain or snow clouds. Using this technology is easier said than done. It requires the skill to read the clouds and decide which one is worth ‘shooting down’. The local team was trained by professionals from Ulaanbaatar. Every month, there are only two or three clouds worth the effort, according to the station team. Before the shooting can take place, special permission is required from Mongolia’s National Civil Aviation Authority – rockets go about 3 – 4km up into the air and one would not want to hit a low-flying airplane. It is also costly. Each rocket cost 100,000 Tugriks (US$70 based on the current exchange rate). NAMEM has financed a number of rockets. The team is also requesting financial contributions from local businessmen to purchase more rockets. In 2010, they fired 32 rockets. Results have been quite good, according to the station team. They envisage continuing this practice in the future as a means to end drought in the Gobi region.

Three in one Since 2004, the network has practiced and strengthened the functions of regular weather forecasting and early warning. A third and related function, to improve pastoral management practices based on more accurate and timely weather information, is also part of its operations, but has so far has achieved little success, largely because of lack of funding. To date, Mr Togtokh and the team have mapped the pasture land resources in the sum, estimated carrying capacities, and, for some time, supported the monitoring of animal growth and health by herders. They have set up ten small experimental plots in the sum area, to monitor natural growth of the most common grass species as well as livestock growth of the animals grazing in the pastures. They aim to do more in the near future, and are looking for ways to cooperate with and learn from other initiatives in the country that have more knowledge and experience in this field (Ykhanbai et al. 2004). The Erdenedalai weather network represents a unique initiative to read the weather more carefully and, through collective action, reduce risks and improve pastoral management practices in a region prone to weather uncertainties and disaster events. Built-up through local efforts and making use of modern communication and information tools, the network could serve as an example for other areas in Mongolia. Beating the weather will likely always remain a challenge, but the network suggests that something could be done to be better prepared. The herders in Erdenedalai are convinced that it can be done.

Acknowledgements Research for this article was supported by the Regional Integrated Multi-hazard Early Warning System (RIMES), Bangkok, Thailand as part of the Climate Risk Management – Technical Assistance Support II project funded by the UNDP. We thank the Animal Husbandry and Agricultural Risk Management Center team in Erdenedalai and staff of NAMEM for welcoming us warmly and for sharing their experience with us. The opinions expressed are those of the authors only.

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References Enkhbat, B. (2010) ‘Securing Pastoralism in Post-Socialist Mongolia: Herders’ Livelihood Strategies in the Context of Climate Change and Market Uncertainties’, unpublished MSc thesis, Chiang Mai University, Thailand. Government of Mongolia and UNDP Mongolia (2010) ‘National Strategy for Climate Risk Management and Action Plan for Mongolia’, Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia: UNDP Marin, A. (2010) ‘Riders under storms: contributions of nomadic herders’ observations to analyzing climate change in Mongolia’, Global Environmental Change 20 (1): 162–76. Ministry of Nature, Environment and Tourism (2009) ‘Mongolia: Assessment Report on Climate Change 2009’, Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia: Ministry of Nature, Environment and Tourism. UN Mongolia Country Team (2010) ‘Mongolia: Dzud Appeal’, Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia: United Nations. Vernooy, R. and X. Wang (2010) Climate Risk Management – Technical Assistance Support Project II: Community Profile Mongolia. Bangkok, Thailand: United Nations Development Program and Regional Integrated Multi-hazard Early Warning System. Ykhanbai, H. and B. Enkhbat (2006) ‘Co-management of pastureland in Mongolia’, in S. R. Tyler (ed.) Communities, Livelihoods and Natural Resources: Action Research and Policy Change in Asia, Bourton on Dunsmore, UK: ITDG; Ottawa, Canada: International Development Research Centre. Ykhanbai, H., B. Enkhbat, B. Ulipkan, R. Vernooy, and J. Graham (2004) ‘Reversing grassland degradation and improving herders’ livelihoods in the Altai Mountains of Mongolia’’, Mountain Development and Research 24 (2): 96–100.

The authors Wang Xiaoli is a lecturer at the Center for Women Studies, Shantou University, China. ,[email protected]. Ronnie Vernooy is a genetic resources policy specialist at Bioversity International, Maccarese, Italy. ,[email protected].

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