Analog Enabling New Frontiers Semicon West July 2016 1

Agenda • • • •

Analog Impact Applications & Devices Analog Manufacturing IoT Driving Industry Focus

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Analog Impact

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Analog = 12-14% of Total Semi Revenue Total Semi & Analog Revenues

Source: SIA/WSTS and Semico Research Corp.

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Analog $ More Volatile Than Total Total Semi & Analog Revenues

Source: SIA/WSTS and Semico Research Corp.

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Units Volatile but Growing Total Semi & Analog Units

Source: SIA/WSTS and Semico Research Corp.

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$46.6B 122 B Units

Analog

Application Specific

General Purpose

$18.9B 73.3 B Units

$27.7B 48.9 B Units

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40% of Dollars 60% of Units $2.7B 11.7B Units

$2.1B 8.8B Units

Amp/ Comparator

Interface

$11.1B General Purpose 50B Units Power Management

Linear Reg Logic & Amplification

Switching Reg Other power

Conditioning protection

Voltage Reg

Battery charging

Supervisor control 8

$2.97B 2.92B Units Signal conversion

60% of Dollars 40% of Units

$2.4B 4.4B Units

$2.0B $13.1B 4.2B Units 19.5B Units Application Specific

Computer

Consumer

Communication

Computer System

Audio/Video

Storage Devices

DSC/ Camcorder

Other Computing Computer

$6.9B 8.7B Units

Automotive

Cell Phones

$2.5B 12B Units

Industrial

Infotainment

Wireless Infra Wireless Short Range

Other Consumer

RFID

Oth Wired

Medical

Oth Wireless

All Other

Peripheral

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Other Auto

Applications & Devices: Traditional Markets 10

Computing Declining but Still a $$ Market Servers  

10.9% in 2015 11.8% in 2016

Desktop  

-16% in 2015 -9.8% in 2016

Notebook 



-9.0% in 2015 -1.5% in 2016

Tablet  

-10% in 2015 -3.6% in 2016

Source: Semico Research Corp. MAP Model

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Low-end Smartphones Driving the Market

Source: Semico Research Corp. MAP Model

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Applications & Devices: IoT 13

Trends

• Sensors driving functions

• Downward ASP pressures • More standards needed

Source: Morgan Stanley and Semico Research Corp.

MEMS & Sensors: A Magnet for Suppliers The Great New Frontier: IoT

Greater than ~250 MEMS & Sensor Manufacturers

*Includes home automation, smart buildings, smart cities, environmental, security, robotics, factory automation

Source: Semico Research Corp. MEMS & Sensor Database

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IoT = Sensors to Processors Sensors

Data Conversion

Networking

Server Processors NAND

RF

MCU Standard Cell Power Management Interface Audio

Baseband

MEMS 16

DRAM

FPGA

The Great New Frontier: IoT Power Management • Energy Harvesting • Wireless Charging Connectivity • Wired • Wireless • • • • • • • • •

Sensor Fusion • MCU • MEMS • Sensors

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WiFi LP Bluetooth Thread ZigBee Sub-Ghz SIGFOX KNX M-BUS HART

Analog Comm • Wireless RF • Wired

Automotive Attracting Attention

More Electronic Systems/Car • Hybrid/EV • Navigation • Vision System • Driver Assistance • Auto Engine Start/stop • Connected/LTE • Auto Braking • Blind Spot Detection • Etc.

Source: Semico Research Corp. and Statista

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Automotive Focus

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Connectivity: Radios and connection to infrastructure, 4G/5G, WiFi, car-to-car, advanced IVI.

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ADAS & Autonomous Driving: ARM-based SoCs, Mali opportunity for Computer Vision (CV)

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Powertrain evolution: Cortex-R5 for electric vehicles, ARMv8-R for hybrids, low emissions, and gas engines. 19

Drones More Than Just Toys • Three Basic Categories • Consumer $300-$800 • Professional and Commercial $1000 and up

• Military and government $1000+ and higher • Rotor configurations • Basic = 4 rotors • Larger/more advanced > 4 rotors • 2015 market TAM $357 Million • 2020 market TAM to exceed $1.0 billion CAGR of 24% 20

Drone BOM •

Flight control main CPU •

• • •

Intel x86, Qualcomm Snapdragon class

GPS module Multiple MCUs Sensors included • • • • • •

• • •

Avg. Low-End BOM cost $137

pressure, magnetometer, accelerometer, sonar, image stabilization, proximity

Power and battery management WiFi Memory •

DRAM and NAND 21

Virtual Reality Headsets: The Race Is On

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Virtual Reality Headset Features  Two OLED displays: pixel resolution 2,160 x 1,200

 90 FPS refresh rate  Accelerometer, gyroscope, and magnetometer  360-degree headset tracking  Horizontal field of view greater than 100º  Driven by smartphone or console box

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Virtual Reality Headset: 3 Scenarios

*Includes VR and AR Headsets Source: Semico Research Corp.

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Manufacturing Impact

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Analog Revenue Impact Comparable to MPU Product Revenues as a % of Total Semiconductor Revenues

Source: SIA/WSTS and Semico Research Corp.

Analog Units Are A Different Story Units by Product

Source: SIA/WSTS and Semico Research Corp.

Analog Silicon Demand Growing Steadily

Source: SIA/WSTS and Semico Research Corp.

Revenue Per Wafer Under Pressure

Source: SIA/WSTS and Semico Research Corp.

IoT Driving Industry Focus

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New Technology Offerings

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Foundry Trends & Challenges

• Industry growth rate slowing • Advanced technology • Higher mask count/More layers • Longer process development cycle • Future market segments • Lower revenues, potentially higher margins

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Enabling IoT: Cloud versus the Edge The Cloud

The Edge

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New Analog Report

Making Digital Systems Come Alive June 2016 MP115-16 For more information Contact Rick Vogelei: [email protected]

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