World and Brazilian Fertilizer Market
MARCH 2012
Company Overview
GLOBAL FERTILIZER CONSUMPTION BY NUTRIENT
157.0
159.6
170.4
176.8
181.0
107
109
2011
TOTAL N
99
101
103
29% 60% 24%
P2O5 K2O
34
36
40
41
42 23%
24
23
27
2008
2009
2010
29
30
2011
2012
47%
17% World
Brazil
Estimated growth of 2.4% in 2012 Annual estimated average growth of 3.6% from 2010 to 2012
Source: IFA, June 2011 (e) estimate
3
GLOBAL PRODUCTION CAPACITY OF FERTILIZERS % of Utilized Capacity
85%
millions of tons by nutrient - NPK
81%
76%
Production recovery after 2009 by increasing utilized capacity
Source: IFA Note 1 – The total volume contemplates industrial use fertilizers
4
GLOBAL FERTILIZER PRODUCERS BY REGION -2009 AMMONIA (NITROGEN)
ASIA
65.0%
EUROPE & OTHERS AMERICAS AFRICA Source : ANDA / IFA
17.6% 14.8% 2.6% 5
GLOBAL FERTILIZER PRODUCERS BY REGION- 2009
PHOSPHATE ROCK
54.9%
ASIA 21.5%
AMERICAS
21.0%
AFRICA EUROPE & OTHERS Source: ANDA / IFA
2.6% 6
GLOBAL FERTILIZER PRODUCERS BY REGION- 2009
POTASSIUM CHLORIDE
42.2%
ASIA AMERICAS EUROPE Source : ANDA / IFA
31.1% 26.7% 7
INVESTMENTS IN RAW MATERIAL PRODUCTION
WORLD RESERVES INVESTMENTS IN NEW CAPACITIES
Available
Limited
Limited
US$ 1,4 billion per 1 million tons of ammonia – 3 years
US$ 1,6 billion per 1 million tons of P2O5(i) 3-4 years
US$ 1,6 billion per 1 million tons of KCL(ii) 5-7 years
~ 75 countries (ammonia basis) 1 st China; 2nd Russia; 3rd India; 4th USA
~ 100 countries (P205 basis) 1st China; 2nd USA; 3rd Morocco; 4th Russia
12 countries (KCL basis) 1st Canada; 2nd Russia; 3rd Belarus; 4th Germany
Regional
Global Players
Global few global players
PRODUCING COUNTRIES MARKET CHARACTERISTICS BRAZILIAN POSITION ANNOUNCED INVESTMENTS
1% of World’s Production 3% of World’s Consumption China, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Brazil and Iran
4% of World’s Production 1% of World’s Production 9% of World’s Consumption 14% of World’s Consumption China, Brazil, Maroccos, Saudi Arabia and Peru
(i) Includes phosphates rock, sulfuric acid and MAP/DAP (ii) Conventional Mining
Source: IFA / ANDA / Potash Corp / BMO –april/2009
Canada, Brazil, Maroccos, Saudi Arabia and Peru
8
GLOBAL MARKETS AND CARG OF LARGEST MARKETS 2010 Global Largest Fertilizer Markets (1) Market Share 2010
29.8%
CAGR of Largest Markets % CAGR
27.7%
3,5%
11.8%
4,6%
5.9% 2.9% 2.2%
1.8%
0,4%
6,2%
mm tons
mm tons
1.7%
CAGR 1990 - 2010
16.3%
Brazil is the world’s 4th largest market and is growing above the global average Note:(1) In nutrient consumption / source: IFA/ANDA
9
EVOLUTION OF BRAZILIAN INDUSTRY AND HERINGER Industry CAGR 6.2%
Heringer CAGR 17.0%
Brazilian Market
Heringer 28.3
22.8 22.8
(mm tons)
10.8
12.2
13.8 14.6 13.6
16.3 17.0
19.1
24.6 20.2 21.0
0.4
0.7
0.8
1.0
1.1
1.5
1.5
1.7
2.1
2.2
2.0
2.5
3.3
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
22.4 22.4
24.5
3.2
3.9
4.5
4.9
2008
2009
2010
2011
Heringer’s Market Share 17.2% in 2011
Source: Anda / Heringer CAGR - 1995 - 2011
10
SUSTAINABILITY AND FERTILIZERS IN BRAZIL 2,000
*PLANTED AREA/HA (CAGR 2%) 1,800
*AGRI PRODUCTION (CAGR 5%)
1,600
FERTILIZERS (CAGR 7%)
1,400
Planted area CAGR (1969 to 2011) of 2%, vs. agricultural production CAGR of 5%
1,200 1,000
Fertilizer consumption CAGR of 7% shows the important gain in agricultural productivity and contribution of this input to environmental preservation
800 600 400 200 0 1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2011
*Planted area in hectares of soybean, corn, beans (grain), paddy rice, wheat (grain), herbaceous cotton, oats (grain), barley (grains), triticale (grain), sunflower (grain), rye (grain). •Agricultural production of following crops: soybean, corn, beans (grain), paddy rice, wheat (grain), herbaceous (seed), sorghum (grain), oats (grain), triticale (grain), sunflower (grain), rye (grain)
Source: Agroconsult
11
BRAZIL – TOTAL AND ARABLE LAND TERRITORIAL DISTRIBUITION (MILLION PER HA)
BRAZIL
851.0
%TOTAL LAND
%ARABLE LAND
100%
---
329.9
38.8%
100%
Cultivated Area (annual and permanent)
72.2
8.5%
21.9%
Grain
49.9
5.9%
15.1%
Soybean
24.2
2.8%
7.3%
Corn
13.8
1.6%
4.2%
Bean
4.0
0.5%
1.2%
Rice
2.8
0.3%
0.9%
Cotton
1.4
0.2%
0.4%
Sugarcane
9.2
1.1%
2.8%
Coffe
2.2
0.3%
0.7%
Orange
0.8
0.1%
0.3%
Planted Forest
6.5
0.8%
2.0%
172.0
20.2%
52.1%
85.7
10.1%
26.0%
Arable Land
Pasture Available Area >> arable land – (cultivated + pasture)
Brazilian grain production uses only 21.9% of arable land Brazil has 14.0% of fresh water of the world Fontes: FGV
12
BRAZILIAN FERTILIZER PRODUCTION CHAIN Basic and Intermediate Fertilizer Producers NPK Mixture Producers
Mineral Extraction Natural Gas
Natural Gas (N)
Phosphate Rock (P)
Potassium (K)
Vale Fert. Petrobras
Copebras Galvani
Urea / Nitrate/ Sulfate
Vale Fert. Vale Fert.
Petrobras Proquigel
MAP / DAP
Copebras Vale Fert.
TSP
SSP
Copebras
Vale Fert. Copebras Galvani
Vale Fert. Yara
Potassium Chloride
Mixers and Distributors (NPK)
Heringer Bunge Mosaic Yara Fertipar ADM Others (+-
Heringer Yara Timac Bunge Cibrafertil Fospar
Vale Fert.
110 compan.)
Clear segmentation of the production and distribution on Brazilian market In 2011 Brazil imported 70% of the fertilizer it consumed 13
BRAZIL’S AGRICULTURAL CALENDAR 35% CROPS
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
65% MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEPT
OCT
NOV
DEC
Planting
SOYBEAN
Harvest Planting/Coverage
Sugarcane Planting 18-Month System
SUGARCANE
Northeast Harvest Planting/Coverage
COFFEE
Planting/Coverage Harvest
Winter Crop Planting
CORN
Northeast Harvest
Center – South Harvest
Harvest
Planting Winter Crop Harvest Planting
COTTON
Harvest
Production cycle of the five crops with the highest fertilizer consumption in Brazil Historic sazonality 35% in 1H and 65% in 2H 14
BRAZIL: IMPORTANTE AGRIBUSINESS PLAYER Brazil as a % of Global Production – 2010/11
Brazil as a % of Global Exports 2010/11 1º
1º 1º
1º 2º
1º
1º 4º
3º
2º
5º
3º
Brazil is one of the largest producers/exporters of agricultural products and has one of the lowest production costs in the world Sources: USDA/ Agroconsult – in metric tons
15
FERTILIZER DELIVERIES BY CROP Brazilian Market - 2011
Heringer - 2011 Soybean 14%
Soybean 34%
Sugarcane 20%
Sugarcane 15% Corn 18%
Corn 18%
Others 23%
Coffe 7%
Reflorest. 3%
Others 23%
Coffee 19% Reflorest. 6%
Heringer offers solutions for many different crops, minimizing the volatility associated with local climates and other specific conditions, such as price cyclicality, pests and disease. Source: LSPA – IBGE/CEPE AGRO e ANDA
16
SALES BY SEGMENT - 2011 Number of Clients
Sales by segment Individuals 45%
50,229 Resale 6% cooperatives 6%
45,190
44,959
2009
2010
Companies 43%
Individuals/Companies = 88% of volume
2011
Focus on the segment is important for increasing profitability and mitigating risks More than 50,000 clients in 2011– a retail Company 17
MIXING UNITS AND PRODUCTION CAPACITY 19 units located in the main consumer market, with installed mixing capacity around 6 million metric tons
1 Sulfuric acid and single super phosphate (SSP) Unit
Rosário do Catete
Brazilian Market Distribution 2010 South 27.60%
Camaçari Rondonópolis Anápolis
North 1.90%
Rio Verde
Northeast 12.20%
Catalão
Uberaba Bebedouro Ourinhos Dourados
Manhuaçu Iguatama Três Corações
São João do Manhuaçu Viana
Paulínia
Paranaguá
Southeast 28.60%
Middle East 29.70%
Porto Alegre
Legenda Legend Unidades Misturadoras Mixing Units
Rio Grande
Unidade SSP Unitde SSP
18
FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Volume (million metric tons)
2.5
3.3
3.2
3.9
4.5
4.9
Net Revenue (R$ thousand)
1,435,969
2,260,839
3,524,559
3,192,314
3,521,473
4,704,010
58,606
83,266
90,113
38,765
212,331
352,491
4.1%
3.7%
2.6%
1.2%
6.0%
7.5%
EBITDA (R$ thousand)
EBITDA Margin
EBITDA in 2011 was the highest in Heringer’s history 19