Wireless backhaul via Satellite, 5th Edition

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Satellite Communications

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Broadcasting & Digital Media Hybrid & Emerging Applications Commercial Space

Report Overview

Report Specifics

NEW in this Edition:

Primary Forecast Elements Include:

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Regions Covered North America Latin America Western Europe Central & Eastern Europe Middle East/North Africa Sub Saharan Africa Asia Atlantic Ocean Region Pacific Ocean Region Indian Ocean Region

Mobility Platforms (Land, Air & Sea) Picocells Dedicated Forecasts for O3b Dedicated Forecasts for Wideband Ka-band (Newsat) SWOT Analysis: • SCPC • TDMA • L-band • Wideband Ka-band (Newsat) • O3b

In this latest NSR study, the wireless backhaul via satellite roadmap is analyzed both from a qualitative and quantitative perspective. Extensive primary research from equipment manufacturers, service providers and key players in the wireless ecosystem help form the emerging satellite wireless backhaul solution mix, particularly as it translates to market prospects as well as market shares per technology and platform over the next 10 years. Specific satellite earth station equipment forecasts and picocells for wireless technology solutions are provided per region, and the SCPC versus TDMA debate is assessed and forecasted. The evolution or move towards IP as well as the impact of HTS, Wideband Ka-band and O3b are quantified as well. Programs such as the current iPSTAR and Viasat-1, to name a few, are thoroughly examined in order to determine how each program stacks up against the others. NSR likewise provides a SWOT analysis to determine a proposition’s market fit, including: • Traditional C-band and Ku-band offerings • SCPC • TDMA • Picocells • HTS platforms • O3b Together, quantitative forecasts and qualitative assessments provide a roadmap for satellite backhaul demand on traditionally-served fixed locations as well as emerging demand for mobile assets, specifically commercial airliners, trains and maritime vessels. The ultimate goal of this study is to act as a tool that can be utilized to provide strategic insights for companies that are looking to serve various business models that tap the satellite backhaul market in individual as well as integrated propositions that include space segment solutions, earth station equipment, frequency mix and regional targeting.

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S atell i te C ommun i cat i ons From spacecraft manufacturing and launching to the applications that drive capacity supply and demand

Elements Analyzed per Region & Wireless Platform •

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Supply Side o Platform Competition o CAPEX & OPEX o Distribution Partners

B roadcast i n g & D i g i tal M ed i a Video is the core and

Demand Side o Application Requirements - Rural & Remote Areas o Digital Divide / Internet Connectivity Needs o Population & Urbanization Trends o Regulatory Environment o End User Equipment & Service Price Considerations – Price Elasticity

foundation of the industry, typically accounting for 60% or more of total revenues

Primary Questions Addressed in this Report Include • • • • • • • • • • • • • •

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Satellite Backhauled Sites, by Technology Platform Annual Unit Shipments of Satellite-based equipment Installed Base & Unit Shipments of backhaul earth stations o SCPC o TDMA Pricing C-band Transponder Demand Ku-band Transponder Demand The HTS Impact O3b Demand Wideband Ka-band Demand Picocells o Land o Maritime o Aeronautical

NSR Coverage Areas

Which technology offering or satellite program is the most compelling today and over the long term? Why? Is global better than regional? Is simple better than complex and vice-versa? Which program or offering wins, and which programs lose? Where are SCPC and TDMA headed? Will O3b survive only with a backhaul play? What is the overall effect of HTS? Who are the key players, and what is their market differentiator? What is the role of satellite backhaul currently and over the long term for each regional market? Which regions provide the best backhaul prospects over the next 10 years? What is the expected take-up rate per wireless offering, and what are the implications for satellite-backhauled equipment? What level of satellite bandwidth demand is likely to be required in each regional market for the provision of wireless backhaul services? What is the impact of wireless broadband connectivity to the satellite backhaul market? How do prices affect market take-up for satellite backhaul solutions?

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H y br i d & E mer g i n g A ppl i cat i ons NSR’s leading edge coverage has shown that satellite is more than ever intertwined with the fabric of terrestrial networks

C ommerc i al S pace Beyond telecommunictions services, Commercial Space presents promising opportunities for the space industry

E X ECUTIVE SU M M AR Y The NSR Difference

Introduction

This 5th Edition report continues to build upon NSR’s body of work with more strategic and Bottom Line insights as

The wireless backhaul via satellite market has been considered or characterized by many in the industry as flat in

technologies and satellite programs enter the marketplace. Lingering questions on the future of SCPC as it competes

terms of growth and relegated to C-band SCPC solutions. The prognosis certainly appears true, particularly when

with TDMA, the financial prospects of O3b, and the role of HTS and Wideband Ka-band programs are explored, not

viewed over the past decade when one company in particular has dominated the market -- Comtech.

just in terms of individual market performance but more importantly, in terms of competitive positioning vis-à-vis legacy and new program offerings.

However, within the industry solutions like TDMA are posing a challenge and gaining headway either via its own unique market space or competing head-on with SCPC in the area of new installations and replacements.

A separate forecast on Wideband Ka-band via Newsat’s program as well as O3b is featured, which indicates their

HTS, notably iPSTAR, has entered the fray as well and has in 2010 established a solid foothold in the market. On

market viability, in terms of the wireless backhaul market over the long term. For O3b specifically, since backhaul is its

the horizon of course is O3b as well as other players such as Newsat for a Wideband Ka-band offering and other

main offering and market target at this given point in time, market numbers specific to O3b should indicate whether a

HTS systems such as Inmarsat’s GlobalXpress that could potentially compete and impact the market.

single service offering is enough to anchor its business plan or whether other offerings need to be targeted as well. Global Wireless Backhaul In-service Units, 2010-2020 This unbiased report, which builds upon market needs that include application requirements, urbanization trends, cost structures and other end user elements, serves as a reality check on whether the latest “hyped” technologies will make the grade or will go by the way side similar to a few highly technically ambitious programs of the past that have led to bankruptcies. Hard line demand side analysis will test engineering prowess and will be the main gauge in picking market winners. The report provides an honest assessment of legacy FSS systems that have been the technology choice of backhaul engineers, while providing an analysis of new programs such as high throughout satellite (HTS), Wideband Ka-band and O3b. L-band in Mobility Platforms is likewise assessed with new offerings. Value proposition are scrutinized and their future role in the complex interplay of technology choices is determined. Those looking for the bottom line can expect to find both qualitative and quantitative elements for each technology, highlighting and examining their unique and compelling value proposition as they address traffic needs while being

The wireless backhaul via satellite market is expected to show steady growth within the forecast period. The

subject to stringent ROI benchmarks.

following exhibit provides a summary of platforms and their corresponding penetration in terms of in-service units within a 10-year period. By way of a roadmap, the solution mix shows steady growth levels for systems

By segmenting both the 2010 baseline and the 2011-2020 forecasts by equipment type and space segment category,

currently being used, specifically SCPC and TDMA. In a way, the industry players who considered the market

the reader is able to navigate this market, which is both promising and risky, and determine the best course of action

as flat, in terms of SCPC C-band at least, appear to be right.

and strategic direction to undertake for areas of growth and future impact. However, other platforms that have recently entered or are about to enter the market are expected to Finally, this 5th Edition study provides expected long term trends that will affect the entire wireless business for

show better growth prospects, particularly those targeting Mobility Platforms. In fact, NSR expects Mobility

current developments that include the introduction and perhaps the proliferation of bandwidth intensive, complex

Platforms in-service units to outpace Fixed Land Tower installations by the 2015-2016 timeframe.

devices that could end up in the hands of developing country users. In Mobility Platforms, the impact of developed country usage is assessed as well.

Overall Market Findings The market includes three core segments, and each one is expected to exhibit positive growth with Mobility Platforms accounting for the highest levels of market expansion as well as the highest levels of revenue beginning in 2016. It is worth noting that some solutions including O3b and Wideband Ka-band are still not included in this report edition as no strategic plans were publicly announced or disclosed to NSR for tapping Mobility Platforms. Market dynamics and the revenue mix can and should change if these camps enter the Mobility market with a compelling solution.

Global Wireless Backhaul Revenues, 2010-2020

Global Wireless Backhaul Revenues by Region, 2010-2020

Global Wireless Backhaul In-service Units, Macrocells & Picocells 2010-2020

Conclusions •

The wireless backhaul market offers various opportunities for service providers, satellite operators and equipment manufacturers where each player can carve a niche.

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Comtech or SCPC is still expected to account for a large share of the market; however, other players are likely to gain inroads, particularly in targeting the market transition that is beginning to take place.

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The market transition regionally implies the following market characteristics or dynamics: o The Fixed Land Tower market is a developing country proposition. o The Mobility Platforms market is mainly a developed country market offering. o Thus, as the number of wireless subscribers or the penetration level of the wireless industry increases throughout the globe, the next stage of market growth for satellite backhaul services at least will be wireless subscribers from developed countries that need connections while in motion or in

Picocell technology is expected to be a major factor in impacting the market going forward. By definition, Mobility Platforms (except for large cruise ships and passenger vessels) run on picocells. Picocells can also serve traditional Fixed Land Towers, which should add to its market proposition. The picocell CAGR compared to macrocell growth is expected to be highly dynamic, leading to an almost doubling of installed units when compared to macrocells by 2020. Regionally in revenue terms, Asia, Sub Saharan Africa and Latin America were dominant in 2010. By 2020, similar trends in in-service units are expected where Asia and Sub Saharan Africa get the top posts. But here, the third largest market is likely to be North America and fourth Latin America. Once again the market in transition from Fixed Land Towers to Mobility Platforms impacts regional market prospects significantly. Western Europe and the Middle East/ North Africa region likewise improve their rank and more importantly, their revenue potential.

transit.

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Our goal is to help manager’s worldwide plan for growth based on unbiased, actionable intelligence and analysis

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R e s e a r c h R e p o r t To p i c s

Gov’t and Military Satellite Communications



Broadband Satellite Markets



Machine to Machine (M2M) and SCADA Mobile Satellite Services



Wireless Backhaul via Satellite



Satellite Capacity Supply & Demand



IPTV via Satellite



Advanced Satellite Coding and Modulation



Direct-to-Home (DTH) Digital Signage



Mobile TV and Mobile Video Earth Observation High Throughput Satellites (HTS) Remote Sensing Video Broadcasting

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Broadcasting & Digital Media Video is the core and foundation of the industry, typically accounting for 60% or more of total revenues, while other digital media applications show some of the industry’s fastest growth rates. NSR’s extensive coverage of this important market leverages its geographically diverse analyst pool to capture the regional differences of video traffic and digital media applications around the world. By analyzing growth in video channels and feeds, in addition to location of emerging video platforms and applications in each region, NSR is able to provide detailed market insight for our customers.

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