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Wimbledon 2015 – Ones to Watch: 10 players for the notebook... 17th June 2015 Inside this exclusive Ones to Watch report for Wimbledon 2015: 

In search of a big payout...

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Wimbledon 2015 – Outright Winner betting...

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Ones to Watch – big prices, form players, grass court specialists & rising stars...

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Including 40/1, 50/1 and 150/1 shots...

In search of a big payout… Welcome to your Total Tennis Betting Ones to Watch report for Wimbledon 2015... We are setting our sights on a handful of players at double-figure prices (and bigger) for what is the third Grand Slam event of the year, and the only one of the four Major tournaments to be played on grass. As with Wimbledon in the last couple of years – where we’ve successfully flagged up 100/1 winner Marion Bartoli, 80/1 runner-up Sabine Lisicki and 50/1 runner-up Eugenie Bouchard – our aim is to target the big Each Way prices and the ‘outsiders’ capable of making a name for themselves on the biggest stage. Recent history shows us that in the Women’s event in particular, we can be somewhat optimistic that a big-price outsider will find their way through to the final. These Grand Slam results from the last couple of years give plenty of hope for big-odds hunters…     

66/1 Lucie Safarova was runner-up at the French Open this year 200/1 Dominika Cibulkova made it to the Australian Open final in 2014 50/1 Eugenie Bouchard was runner-up at Wimbledon 2014 100/1 Marion Bartoli won Wimbledon 2013 66/1 Li Na reached the Aussie Open final 2013

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150/1 Sara Errani was runner-up at the French Open 2012

In the Men’s Grand Slams there have been fewer big prices & surprises in the last decade or so. But in the last 18 months the Grand Slam dominance of the Big Four – Novak Djokovic, Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal and Andy Murray – has been broken...    

25/1 Stan Wawrinka won the French Open this year 66/1 Stan Wawrinka won the Australian Open 2014 100/1 Marin Cilic won the US Open 2014 50/1 Kei Nishikori was runner-up at the US Open 2014

Plenty of reasons to look beyond the short-price favourites at Wimbledon this year, then…

Wimbledon 2015 – Outright Winner betting The tournament takes place at Wimbledon, London from 29 th June to 12th July. This Ones to Watch report aims to identify big-price players, early… Positive results... injuries to star names... and the Wimbledon draw when it is made... could well mean some of the players we mention here – almost a fortnight before the event – go off at shorter prices.

Wimbledon 2015 – Men’s: Here are the bookies’ Outright Winner prices, current World Rankings – and career Grass Court Match Win/ Loss form – as of 17th June: Player Novak Djokovic Andy Murray Roger Federer Rafael Nadal Stan Wawrinka Grigor Dimitrov Kei Nishikori Tomas Berdych Jo-Wilfried Tsonga Milos Raonic Marin Cilic Nick Kyrgios 100/1+ bar

Odds 5/4 10/3 6/1 12/1 16/1 25/1 33/1 33/1 33/1 40/1 40/1 50/1

(Decimal) (2.25) (4.33) (7.00) (13.00) (17.00) (26.00) (34.00) (34.00) (34.00) (41.00) (41.00) (51.00)

Ranking #1 #3 #2 #10 #4 #11 #5 #6 #12 #8 #9 #28

GRASS career win/ loss % 80% 83% 87% 79% 51% 62% 54% 70% 72% 56% 67% 86%

Taking a closer look at the favourites... It’s hard to disagree with the Big Four of Djokovic, Murray, Federer and Nadal at the top of the betting for any tournament. But with Djokovic, Murray and Federer all at single-figure odds, we need to tread carefully – at those prices, you’d need to pin your colours to the mast on just one of the three to make that betting tactic a worthwhile pursuit… Djokovic has reached the Wimbledon Final 3 times in the last 4 years (winning twice). Overall, he has reached the Final in 7 of the last 10 Grand Slams – but as impressive as that record is, it’s also worth noting that Djokovic has failed to win 4 of those 7 Grand

Slam Finals. If you’re backing a player at hot-favourite prices like the 5/4 for Djokovic to win Wimbledon, there’s no Each Way consolation to be had: you need him to win. Murray has proved very consistent in Grand Slams, reaching the Quarter Finals or better in each of his 17 Grand Slam appearances. That run includes reaching the French Open Semi Final in June, the Australian Open Final in January – and of course winning Wimbledon in 2013 (a 4/1 winner at the time). Of the Big Four players, only Federer can boast a better career grass court match win-rate than Murray’s 83% record – but at odds of just 10/3 at best, I’d want to see the Wimbledon draw-sheet (to map out a potential route to the Final) before backing Murray this year. Federer – not surprisingly – is top of the grass court tree with a magnificent 87% career match win-rate. He’s won Wimbledon 7 times. And has made the Final twice in the last 3 years since turning 30 (winning in 2012, and finishing Runner-up last year – landing an Each Way payout for us). The key negative against backing Federer here is the fact that, despite his awesome career haul of 17 Gram Slam titles, he hasn’t actually won one in 11 attempts since Wimbledon 2012. Having said that, if Federer is to ever win another Grand Slam title – it’s most likely to come on Centre Court at SW19. I find myself in familiar territory writing this: last year Federer looked the most attractive price of the Big Four at 6/1, and it’s the same case again this year. Nadal is a two-time Wimbledon champion but before the start of this season he’d won just 5 of 10 grass court matches going back to summer 2012, a run that includes early defeats at SW19 in the 4th Round (2014), 1st Round (2013) and 2nd Round (2012). He kicked off the current 2015 grass court season with a tournament win in Stuttgart, only to lose in the 1st Round at Queen’s the very next week. Outside of the French Open (where he has won in 9 of the last 11 years), Nadal has just one Grand Slam title to his name from his last 10 attempts. At 12/1, Nadal is the only Big Four player available at double-figure odds – but that price reflects his drop in form, rankings (and confidence) in 2015. If you back him for Wimbledon this year a leap of faith is required. I’m not convinced and will be looking to oppose him as I have done in the last two summers. VERDICT: As World No.1, Djokovic is a justified favourite but his record in Finals means his price of 5/4 doesn’t look good value. After reaching the Semi Finals at the French Open, Murray could well go one better and make the Final here, but again the price doesn’t leave much room for Each Way backers. Nadal’s recent Wimbledon record and overall 2015 record is poor by his own high standards – he’s dropped to No.10 in the world which is his lowest ranking for a decade – and his double-figure price reflects his suspect form. That leaves Federer who at 6/1 looks the pick of the Big Four with Each Way betting in mind (that price gives 3/1 for reaching the Final). But as with Murray, I’d want to wait until the Draw was made before backing any of the Big Four this year. And with the knowledge that the Big Four have claimed just 3 of the last 6 Grand Slam titles between them, there’s scope for looking further down the betting list for bigger-price Each Way players to follow at Wimbledon this summer…. 

See below for my Wimbledon 2015 Men’s Ones to Watch list.

Wimbledon 2015 – Women’s: Here are the bookies’ Outright Winner prices, current World Rankings – and career Grass Court Match Win/ Loss form – as of 17th June: Player Odds (Decimal) Serena Williams 2/1 (3.00) Petra Kvitova 7/2 (4.50) Maria Sharapova 8/1 (9.00) Victoria Azarenka 10/1 (11.00) Simona Halep 18/1 (19.00) Lucie Safarova 20/1 (21.00) Madison Keys 25/1 (26.00) Sabine Lisicki 25/1 (26.00) Caroline Wozniacki 33/1 (34.00) Karolina Pliskova 40/1 (41.00) Eugenie Bouchard 40/1 (41.00) Sloane Stephens 40/1 (41.00) Agnieszka Radwanska 40/1 (41.00) Venus Williams 40/1 (41.00) Angelique Kerber 40/1 (41.00) Garbine Muguruza 50/1 (51.00) Ana Ivanovic 50/1 (51.00) Timea Bacsinszky 50/1 (51.00) Ekaterina Makarova 50/1 (51.00) 100/1+ bar

Ranking #1 #2 #4 #25 #3 #6 #18 #19 #5 #12 #11 #42 #13 #16 #10 #21 #7 #15 #8

GRASS career win/ loss % 87% 77% 83% 69% 63% 51% 68% 72% 68% 61% 53% 60% 70% 83% 68% 56% 70% 63% 67%

Taking a closer look at the favourites... Without being too blunt – this is all about Serena Williams. Serena is the World No.1 and has won each of the last 3 women’s Grand Slam titles – French Open 2015, Australian Open 2015 and US Open 2014. If she is fit and well and plays her best – she wins Wimbledon. But… There is hope for the other players. And this is hope for anyone looking for odds bigger than 2/1 for a player to win 7 matches in a row and lift the Wimbledon trophy… Serena last won Wimbledon in 2012. Since then she has performed better (eg. won the title) at each of the 3 other Grand Slam events. Last year Serena was knocked out in the 2nd Round at Wimbledon and in the year before that she went out in the 4 th Round. Nobody is unbeatable. Shocks do happen. And what’s more, even if Serena does boss the tournament and reach her fourth straight Grand Slam Final – there’s certainly no guarantee that her opponent will come from the likes of Kvitova (7/2), Sharapova (8/1) or Azarenka (10/1) at the top of the betting. As mentioned at the start of this report, women’s Grand Slams often produce surprise winners and/ or big-price Each Way payouts on the runner-up. And nowhere has this been more evident in the last couple of years than at Wimbledon… where last year Eugenie Bouchard was runner-up (50/1 at the start of last year, 25/1 on day one of

Wimbledon 2014), and in 2013 where the Final was contested by 80/1 shot Sabine Lisicki and 100/1 winner Marion Bartoli. There is definitely a more ‘open’ feel to the Women’s betting (besides Serena) than in the Men’s event. For example, in the lists of Outright Winner prices above for Wimbledon 2015, there are 12 men within a price range of 50/1 or shorter, whereas on the women’s list there are no fewer than 19 players in the 50/1-or-shorter bracket… VERDICT: Serena is of course the player to beat. But I’ll be looking to find this year’s ‘surprise package’ or breakthrough player at bigger prices. When the Wimbledon Draw is made I’ll be specifically looking to back a player from the opposite side of the Draw to Serena. But that doesn’t mean we should run scared of Serena’s side of the draw-sheet… it will be tough, but each of the players listed below have the potential to do it – and some of them have even beaten Serena before… 

See below for my Wimbledon 2015 Women’s Ones to Watch list.

Wimbledon Men’s – Ones to Watch Here is my Ones to Watch list for Wimbledon 2015. These players all standout at the prices, with bookies betting 1/2 odds for 1-2 places, Each Way… Of course, they can’t all win, or reach the Final for an Each Way payout. As discussed above, the likes of Djokovic and Serena are favourites for good reason. But knowledge of the lesser-known and bigger-price players below can also help you find winners in markets beyond the Outright Winner betting, such as Quarter Winner and Match Winner bets throughout the tournament. Starting with the Men’s event...

The Grass Court Lover - Grigor Dimitrov @ 25/1 He’s still only 24 years of age but already it looks as if Grigor Dimitrov’s career will be defined by his quest to win Wimbledon… Last year he won the prestigious grass court tournament at Queen’s, before going on to reach the Semi Finals at Wimbledon – where it took the eventual champion Novak Djkovic to stop him. Dimitrov’s performance at other events has been patchy – aside from that Wimbledon Semi Final last year he has only reached one Quarter Final (Australian Open 2014) from 18 Grand Slam attempts. But this is a player on the up, and on grass at Wimbledon – a man on a mission… He’s prodigiously talented – touted as a child star as the ‘Baby Federer’ – and with his early arrival at Queen’s this year, having been knocked out of the French Open in the 1 st Round – the message is clear: Dimitrov loves playing on grass more than any other surface, and winning Wimbledon is his number one goal. He went off at 20/1 last year, and is available at a general 25/1 and as big as 33/1 in places at the time of writing – prices that will look very big indeed if Dimitrov stylishly plays himself into the Semi Finals or better once again.

The ‘Big-Serving Croatian’ – Marin Cilic @ 40/1 We’ve seen a few ‘big-serving Croatian’ players over the years – Goran Ivanisevic won Wimbledon in 2001 (in that Tim Henman year)… Mario Ancic knocked out Roger Federer in 2002 (only to be denied by Federer twice in Quarter Finals in years to come)… and the 6’9” Ivo Karlovic reached the Wimbledon Quarter Finals in 2009, losing to the eventual winner Federer… Marin Cilic is the current Croatian No.1, and with a Grand Slam victory to his name at the US Open last year and the injury layoff that followed now behind him, he looks primed for another Grand Slam run here… Cilic beat Federer in straight sets in the Semi Final on the way to US Open glory, and if he can put together his big-serving, powerful hitting game at Wimbledon this summer then he could well prove the most dangerous ‘outsider’ in the draw at odds of 40/1. Along with Stan Wawrinka (see below) and (the currently injured) Juan-Martin Del Potro, Cilic is one of only three ‘non-Big Four’ players to win a men’s Grand Slam in the last 10 years. That’s a significant achievement and I believe Cilic is good enough to prove that win was no flash in the pan.

The best of the rest... With the dominance of Djokovic, Murray and Federer at the top of the betting I don’t want to fire out too many names in regards to the Outright Winner market. But these men are also worthy of a mention here as they all have recent form... grass court prowess... and/ or Grand Slam pedigree in their favour... The Grand Slam Champion – Stan Wawrinka (16/1)… Stan Wawrinka blasted his way to the French Open title in Paris and has now won 2 of the 6 Grand Slam titles contested since the start of 2014. That’s an incredible achievement in this era of the game and shows that when he’s at his best, Wawrinka genuinely can beat anyone. His current Wimbledon price of 16/1 is noticeably shorter than the 66/1 he went off at in Australia 2014 and the 25/1 for the French Open this year, and it’s worth noting that after winning the Australian Open he went out in the 1 st Round in his very next Grand Slam – but confidence should be sky high and if he catches fire again I wouldn’t want to back against him. The ‘Serve-bot’ – Milos Raonic (40/1) Milos Raonic was one of my Each Way picks for the title last year and fell one hurdle short, losing in the Semi Final to Roger Federer. The 6’5” Canadian is ranked No.3 for Most Aces so far in 2015 and his serve will be key to his success on grass this season. He’s no one-trick pony – his ground-strokes have improved over the last couple of years, and his match-play mentality/ nerve looks strong, too – but if your serve is your best tool then there’s no better surface to go to work on than grass. Raonic went off at 40/1 last year and is the same price to mount another Wimbledon challenge this year. The Young Gun – Nick Kyrgios (50/1) Nick Kyrgios burst onto the scene with a sensational victory over Rafael Nadal at Wimbledon last year and ever since then his Grand Slam odds have been in doublefigures rather than triple-figures. The 20-year-old Australian is not shy – he’s already beaten Nadal and Federer in the last year and his on-court persona suggests he’s not intimidated by anything. His play can sometimes be erratic but his serve is massive and

he has the talent to back up his showmanship. If you’re looking for an exciting young player to get behind then 50/1 Nick Kyrgios is your man.

Wimbledon Women’s – Ones to Watch In the Women’s event there is greater potential for a ‘surprise’ finalist or winner, as demonstrated by the stack of big price Grand Slam results mentioned at the start of this report. Here are the names on my Wimbledon 2015 Women’s Ones to Watch list – including some huge prices…

The Ace Machine – Karolina Pliskova @ 40/1 Karolina Pliskova is not only one of the tallest women on the Tour – at 6’1” – she’s also one of the very best servers… The big-hitting Czech is No.12 in the World Rankings but No.1 when it comes to Most Aces hit this year. Pliskova is also ranked 3rd for Most 1st Serve Points Won (72%), 6th for Most Overall Service Points Won and 5th for Most Break Points Saved. All those traits will put her in good stead on a fast, low-bouncing Wimbledon surface, and while she has little grass court form to go on, Pliskova is still just 23 years of age and we’re yet to see the best from her. If she serves as well as she can then she has the potential to take out one or two big names here. At 40/1 this improving player looks a dangerous outsider.

The Rising Star – Sloane Stephens @ 40/1 At just 22 years of age we can expect to see much more of Sloane Stephens in the years to come – and sooner or later I expect her to make another splash at a Grand Slam… In 2013 Stephens reached the Semi Finals at the Australian Open – knocking out Serena Williams – and the Quarter Finals at Wimbledon. When she’s on her game her powerful shot-making can blow away opponents, and she seems to me a ‘streaky’ player… when she’s good, she’s very good and although consistency is the missing factor right now, at odds of 40/1 we’re getting a fair price about a player with bags of ability and potential. Stephens was in my book at 50/1 last year and I’m following her again this year.

The best of the rest... In the search for this year’s breakthrough players and big price ‘surprises,’ these women should also go in the notebook... The Grass Court Specialist – Sabine Lisicki (25/1)… Long-time readers will know all about Sabine Lisicki and Wimbledon. She was on our list at huge odds in 2013 – beating Serena at 10/1, and making the Final having been available at as big as 80/1 Each Way. And I backed her again last year at 25/1, where she reached the Quarter Finals. It’s all about the grass courts of Wimbledon for Lisicki – she’s never been past the 4th Round of any other Grand Slam but has made the Quarter Finals or better 4 years running at Wimbledon, including the Final in 2013 and the Semi Final in 2011. She’s a hard player to watch (and bet on) at times as her serving can be erratic – Lisicki is ranked 9th this year for Most Aces and is officially in possession of the Fastest Women’s Serve ever recorded, but is also ranked 6 th this season for Most Double Faults. Odds of 25/1 aren’t overly generous but if you asked me to name one female

player that was a ‘grass court specialist’ (a Wimbledon specialist, even) – it would be Sabine Lisicki. The Former World Number One – Jelena Jankovic (150/1)… Jelena Jankovic may be 30 years of age now, with her only Grand Slam Final appearance back in 2008 at the US Open, but there are signs that she’s enjoying a bit of a return to form of late. Like former World No.1’s Caroline Wozniacki (who made the US Open Final last year to cement her ‘comeback’) and fellow Serbian, Ana Ivanovic (who reached the French Open Semi Final this year having won the title back in 2008), Jankovic has suffered a lull since having the No.1 tag. But runs to the Quarter Finals and Semi Finals in 2 of her last 3 tournaments played at the time of writing, along with a runner-up trophy at the prestigious ‘fifth Major’ at Indian Wells earlier this year show that Jankovic is still capable of performing well in 2015. She kicked off her grass court season with 5 wins out of 6, with all 5 wins coming in straight sets – and at big outsider prices of 150/1 she’s another player that could cause a shock or two at Wimbledon, as well as taking advantage of any gaps in the Draw if some big names go out early. The Consistent Performer – Carla Suarez Navarro (150/1)… Carla Suarez Navarro was on my French Open 2015 Ones to Watch list at 40/1 on the grounds that she is having the best season of her career, and although she went out in the 3rd Round in Paris I can’t ignore odds of 150/1 here for a player ranked No.9 in the world. Suarez Navarro is actually ranked No.1 for Most Match Wins on the WTA Tour in 2015 to date – a figure that shows her fitness & consistency as well as her ability. While she may not have much of a grass court record to speak of, this season has been one of ‘firsts’ for the Spaniard (a first ever WTA Premier level Final, for example, and breaking the Top 10) and with an improved serve now an important part of her game, she could well continue her impressive year by posting the best grass court season of her career, too. Suarez Navarro reminds me of a fellow Spaniard – David Ferrer in the Men’s game – in the way she can just keep on getting the ball back. And – like Ferrer – while she lacks the power to really scare the top players, Suarez Navarro has the consistency to see off an opponent having an off day or to take advantage if the big names fall and the Draw starts to open up. I believe Suarez-Navarro has a Grand Slam run in her at some point and at triple-figure odds she has to go on the Ones to Watch list here.

The countdown is on... That brings my report to a close – 10 players for the notebook ahead of Wimbledon 2015, with a Ones to Watch list including big-price picks at 40/1, 50/1 and even 150/1. And this is just the beginning of our Wimbledon betting… The tournament takes place from 29th June to 12th July. Lookout for more Wimbledon stats, bets and advice from me in your free weekly Total Tennis Betting email updates...

Tom Wilson Total Tennis Betting www.TotalTennisBetting.co.uk Oxfordshire Press 2015