Where is the Single European Market heading? Impact of the MiLoG law on the Polish road market sector

Content

2

Key report conclusions

4 Introduction 6 Analyzing Poland’s road transport sector and its importance for the country’s economy 16 The influence of the MiLoG implementation on the Polish road transport sector and its economic environment 30

Detailed analysis of non-tariff limitations resulting from the MiLoG and their implications

40

The MiLoG as an element that restricts free trade in the EU and its economic implications

Where is the Single European Market heading? Impact of the MiLoG law on the Polish road market sector 1

Key report conclusions

The transport sector accounts

The transport market has now

The minimum wage law

As part of this report analysis

The regulation will also have an

for about 6.6% of Poland’s

become a consumer market and

introduced in Germany

was carried out into the direct

indirect effect on companies

gross domestic product (GDP)

carriers are largely competing on

(Mindestlohngesetz in German,

and indirect impact that the

that do not provide services in

and hence is a key element of

price to win over customers.

MiLoG in short) has also

implementation of the MiLoG

Germany and road transport

the country’s economy. The

Available analyses show that the

affected Polish transport sector

had on the Polish road transport

related industries. The negative

sector plays a significant role at

sector is fragmented and

employees temporarily working

sector in economic and social

consequences may be felt

home but also in Europe,

dominated by microenterprises,

in that country. The law sets out

terms. The direct impact will be

mainly in the financial sector,

because a seamless flow of

yet recently larger companies

the minimum hourly wage of

different for individual

since some companies may stop

goods determines the extent to

have been gaining in impor-

8.5 EUR, severe administrative

companies and depend on the

paying off their debts and

which advantages that ensue

tance. Analysis of financial

requirements and control

number of man-hours worked in

leasing installments. The

from the EU internal market can

statements from major

measures, and heavy fines for

Germany. In the worst case

implementation of the MiLoG

be explored.

companies conducted as part of

failing to comply with the

scenario a rise in salaries paid by

may have an indirect adverse

this report shows that sales are

regulation amounting to up to

Polish transport companies for

impact on exporters, wholesale

At the same time international

going up although the dynamics

500,000 EUR.

work in Germany will amount to

companies and the automotive

road carriage is gaining more

of the growth are lower and

113% compared to the current

industry, too.

and more importance in the

lower. Also, margins are on a

level. A simulation that was

transport sector, especially that

relatively low level and debt is

conducted shows that 42% of

In the boundary scenario

carried out in EU member states.

relatively high.

the studied transport companies

according to which companies

will have a negative net margin

do not conduct adaptation

The sector is an example of Polish entrepreneurs’ success in

The financial situation makes

following a growth in salaries,

activities 14,000 people in 1074

the EU market. In recent years

the sector strongly dependent

which is likely to put them out

studied companies may lose

Polish companies have also

on external factors, particularly

of business in a situation in

their jobs an as many as 53,000

managed to regain their

on the cost side. The sector is

which other circumstances

people may be made redundant

position after a downturn

considerably influenced by

remain the same.

in the entire sector. This will

caused by the global economic

legislation risks (both on the EU

have particularly negative

crisis. Because of the country’s

and national levels), but also the

consequences in regions with

geographical location and size

overall economic situation in

high unemployment rates and

of the market the most

Poland and EU member states,

local job markets which have a

significant amount of carriage

fuel prices, and a variety of

high concentration of

within the European Union is

employee-related expenses.

companies providing interna-

conducted to, from and via

tional transport services. Most

Germany.

such enterprises can be found in the Dolnośląskie, Wielkopolskie, Śląskie and Mazowieckie regions.

2 Where is the Single European Market heading? Impact of the MiLoG law on the Polish road market sector

Owners of transportation

The MiLoG is also associated

In addition, the German law has

Economists say that free trade

For the last decade the

companies will try and raise

with non-tariff barriers. Analysis

become a model for other

contributes to a rise in overall

European Union has been

their efficiency, which may result

of the regulation proves that the

European regulations, the most

prosperity. Liberating trade has a

increasingly troubled with

in consolidation and better

administrative requirements it

important of which is the French

variety of advantages: it enables

processes that tend to inhibit

performance in the sector in the

defines for companies are out of

Macron act (loiMacron), which

creating new trade streams,

trade from being liberated

long run. Market experiences

proportion to the objectives set,

also introduces minimum wages

shaping specializations that

further. These tendencies

show that some entrepreneurs

which may violate EU law. The

and severe administrative

ensure an increase in manage-

translate into specific solutions:

may use unfair methods of

same can be said for fines that

requirements. Similar laws

ment efficiency, achieving

diluting the services directive

competition and seek savings by

the law sets out which greatly

concerning drivers have been

economies of scale, and raising

and proposals to limit the free

for example extending drivers’

exceed those for similar

implemented in Norway and

levels of investment, also

flow of people. A recent

working hours, which is illegal

violations under German

they are going to be introduced

foreign.

example of this trend is the

and worsens their social

national law. Entrepreneurs

in Belgium, the Netherlands,

conditions. In addition, limiting

themselves mainly pay attention

Luxembourg, and Italy. As a

For the last hundred years there

other EU countries. In some

transport markets by Polish

to the following factors:

result of subsequent laws the

has been a decrease in excise

areas such tendencies may lead

transport companies considering

• lack of access to reliable

consequences of the MiLoG

duties and other trade barriers,

to the fragmentation of the

may escalate.

and the World Trade

internal market, which forms the

Organization has been

basis of European prosperity.

MiLoG and similar regulations in

a high mobility of drivers may

information as to whether

lead to them being hired by

various remuneration

foreign enterprises. This will

elements are covered by the

The implementation of the

established, too. The economic

MiLoG (legal uncertainty);

minimum wage law in Germany

integration within the European

English version of the report is

was also analyzed in the context

Union has also progressed,

available on the website: www. deloitte.com/pl/milog

have an indirect negative influence on public finances,

• • contracting parties

since personal income tax

providing them with annexes

of the tendency to depart from

which is based on an internal

revenues are going to fall.

to contracts or including

the fundamental principles of

market operating on the four

clauses in newly concluded

the European Union that has

freedoms mentioned above.

ones according to which

been observed in recent years,

According to recent estimates

carriers should take full

namely concerning the free flow

with no internal market in place

responsibility for complying

of people, goods, services, and

the average level of the GDP per

with the MiLoG and possible

capital.

capita in EU countries would

litigations, and in many cases

have been 12% lower than it is

failure to accept the new

now.

conditions means termination of cooperation; • costs of translating documents; • costs of changes to HR systems; • costs of changes to the manner in which hours are calculated.

Where is the Single European Market heading? Impact of the MiLoG law on the Polish road market sector 3

Introduction

Context of the report The road transport sector, also known as the motor transport sector, has a special place in Polish economy, for example because of the GDP share it accounts for, the number of people employed in the industry and its share in the European transport market. Polish entrepreneurs are leading carriers in Europe with state-of-the-art fleets and scale similar to that of carriers operating in the largest European economies. In the last six months, the media have regularly reported the industry is at risk of collapse following the implementation of the minimum wage law in Germany (MiLoG). Since there are no unambiguous legal opinions as to the necessity of complying with the regulation on the part of Polish entrepreneurs and it is interpreted in a number of different ways, it is difficult to determine the consequences it will have for the sector and economy. Nevertheless, Deloitte has made an attempt to assess the impact that changes to the German regulations will have on the Polish market and their subsequent consequences.

This report is a voice in the public debate that is being carried out on legal requirements that have been introduced in Germany. According to the authors of the report any changes to regulation that may have considerable consequences for the market, society, and environment should be analyzed in detail from the point of view of their validity and logic. For this reason, the authors aimed at determining the influence of the MiLoG on the Polish road transport sector presenting the results obtained against the essence of the introduced changes by: • analyzing the Polish road transport sector, in the case of which particular emphasis was placed on its characteristics such as high competitiveness or the financial condition of companies in the sector; • presenting directions of transport; • describing those MiLoG elements that are important for analysis; • carrying out calculations with regard to changes in profitability of the studied companies resulting from the necessity to raise driver wages to the minimum level as required in the MiLoG; • determining the indirect consequences of the regulation on other sectors, too; • analyzing additional barriers stemming from the implementation of the MiLoG, and carrying out a partial assessment of their costs; • presenting selected theories of international relations and the history of trade liberalization in the world.

4 Where is the Single European Market heading? Impact of the MiLoG law on the Polish road market sector

Assumptions and methods of analysis In order to ensure the reliability of the presented analyses, the following principles of action were adopted: • Independence — the report was prepared by an organization that did not directly participate in the market and only acted as its observer, • Objectivity — to present the problem, the authors described the potential consequences of the undertaken activities, rather than offer value judgments on them, • Constructivism — the report touches upon issues that are important from the point of view of changes, excluding those that do not contribute any value to the debate.

The subjective scope of this report refers to road transport, also called motor transport, which is the most significant part of Poland’s transport sector in terms of road performance. The analysis focused on companies registered in Poland with both Polish and foreign capital. Logistics and forwarding companies were excluded, yet the report makes references to the trends in the sector because of the interdependencies among the industries.

It needs to be stressed that the final report was solely decided upon by Deloitte. In order to ensure reliable data, a variety of research techniques was employed, among which the following are worthy of mention: • analysis of secondary data, especially literature, statistical data, and regulations in the sector, • a survey carried out among 24 big transport companies in a sector association, • a survey conducted among 717 entities using Trans. eu, a freight exchange for carriers, forwarders, and logisticians1, • individual in-depth interviews with 10 representatives of the sector, • qualitative simulation concerning changes in the profitability of the studied organizations based on the Top 1500 ranking, a list of the biggest Polish transport and logistics companies prepared by the “Truck&Business Polska” magazine. Top 1500 is a “Truck&Business Polska” magazine ranking prepared on the basis of financial statements and economic indicators of companies in the sector obtained from Krajowy Rejestr Sądowy (Poland’s National Court Register).

1 Trans.eu is a freight exchange for European carriers, forwarders, and logisticians. According to information found on www. trans.eu, about 2 million cargo offers appear on the exchange each month.

Where is the Single European Market heading? Impact of the MiLoG law on the Polish road market sector 5

Analyzing Poland’s road transport sector and its importance for the country’s economy

Analysis of the impact that the regulation has on the sector is possible after its nature has been analyzed and embedded in a wider context to identify its place in Europe. In addition, it is necessary to analyze the condition of companies in the sector to determine what financial consequences the regulation will have on them. For this reason the chapter presents sector-related problems crucial for further analysis.

Structure of the Polish road transport sector Road transport is the most significant branch of the transport sector: it has the biggest share in the tonnage of transported cargo and road performance measured in ton-kilometers compared to railway, air, and sea transport as well as transport via pipelines and inland navigation. In recent years, the share of road transport in cargo transportation has been rising steadily. In 2000, it stood at 79% and in 2014 — at as much as 84%. The share of road transport in road performance has been growing more rapidly: from 26% in 2000 to 75% in 2014. Road transport has gained more significance in the market mainly to the detriment of sea navigation, which played the biggest role until 2004. In 2014, in Poland 1547.9 million tons of cargo were transported by road, which is 0.3% less on the previous year, and road performance was higher by 1.2%.

The increasing role that road transport has been playing for the last decade is confirmed by the ever-growing number of registered trucks. From 2000 to the end of 2014, it rose by 78% to 3.3 million. Road transport can be divided into earnings-driven, in the case of which services are provided for a fee, and individual, i.e. moving cargo for own use2. The share of earnings-driven transport in overall transportation amounted to 56.5%, whereas transport for own use — to 43.5%. The share of earnings-driven transport in road performance reached 83.9%, while transport for own use — 16.1%. 2 Polski transport samochodowy: Rynek – Koszty – Ceny, Instytut Transportu Samochodowego, Warszawa, 2012, p. 26 3 Transport – wyniki działalności w 2014 r., GUS, Warszawa, 2015, p. 53 4 Transport pod lupą, Europejski Program Modernizacji Polskich Firm, 2013, p. 20

In 2014, earnings-driven transport was responsible for moving 874.3 million tons of goods (1.9% more than in the previous year), and road performance was higher by 2%. 673.6 million tons of cargo was moved for own use (3.1% less than in 2013), and road performance decreased by 2.7%.3

Number and size of companies Road transport is dominated by companies registered in the section “Land transport and transport via pipelines” in the PKD classification (Polish Classification of Activity). In 2014, over 226,000 companies were registered in this section. Microenterprises (with up to nine employees) were predominant among companies operating in the earnings-driven road transport sector. Their share amounted to 62.6% of the total weight of the moved cargo and 29.7% of road performance expressed in ton-kilometers. In 2014, 3969 companies with more than nine employees were registered in the road transport sector itself4. The data confirm the sector is greatly fragmented. It is dominated by small companies operating locally, which is confirmed by the relatively low share of smaller companies in road performance expressed in ton-kilometers despite the considerable share in cargo carriage expressed in tons. Such a market structure — numerous small companies — is a feature of highly-competitive sectors. The Polish road transport market is among the most fragmented in Europe, which is confirmed by data on average employment. An average company employed slightly more than two people in 2010, whereas in Luxembourg — 17 and 11 in the Netherlands. At the same time the data confirm there is a steady increase in importance as for larger companies. Last year, companies with more than nine employees moved 248.6 million tons (8.2% more than in the previous year). Their road performance was higher by 8.3%. In addition, the number of microenterprises fell slightly as for the section “Land transport and transport via pipelines” in the PKD classification in 2014. Most Polish companies with license to carry goods in the European Union have from two to four trucks.

6 Where is the Single European Market heading? Impact of the MiLoG law on the Polish road market sector

Ways of counting: Transport and road performance Cargo transport is calculated in 22% tons of the goods moved. Road performance, however, is a better measure of the share in the 84.13% transport market. It is a product of 84.13% the distance covered by a given rail transport road transport means of transport and the rail transport transport by pipelines road transport number of tons of the goods inland navigation transport by pipelines moved expressed in ton-kilometers sea navigation inland navigation sea navigation (tkm). Source: GUS (Central Statistical Office of Poland)

Figure 4. Moving goods using road transport — earnings-driven transport and transport for own use

[millions of ton-kilometers]

1000

250

1000

38%

30%

22% 42%

27%

5% 42%

1

5%

27%

Export

2-4

1

5-10 11-20

2-4 5-10 11-20

Import Transit

Export

Import Carriage outside the country Transit (including cabotage) Carriage outside the country (including cabotage)

Source: Główny Inspektorat Transportu Drogowego (Poland’s Main Inspectorate of Road Transport)

Source: GUS (Central Statistical Office of Poland)

[millions of ton-kilometers] 250

200

800 800 600

200 150

600 400

150 100

400

100 50

200 200 0

30%

Figure 5. Transport performance of earnings-driven road transport and transport for own use

[thousands of tons] [thousands of tons]

Figure 3. International earnings-driven road transport by transport type

Figure 2. Share of road transport companies operating in the EU by number of vehicles 4% 1% 7% 24% 4% 1% 38% 7% 24%

Figure 1. Share of transport branches in cargo transport in 0.41% 0.37% 2014 2.71% 12.38% 0.41% 0.37% 2.71% 12.38%

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

50 0

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

0 earnings-driven 0 earnings-driven 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 for own use for own use earnings-driven earnings-driven for own use for own use Source: GUS (Central Statistical Office of Poland) Source: GUS (Central Statistical Office of Poland)

Where is the Single European Market heading? Impact of the MiLoG law on the Polish road market sector 7

Figure 6. Najważniejsze kierunki przewozów ładunków eksportowanych transportem drogowym Source: GUS (Central Statistical Office of Poland)

RU 4,7%

NE 6,4%

DE 39,1% 40,4%

CZ 9,6% 8,8%

SK 5,2% 5,0%

FR 5,5% 4,6%

IT 5,4% 6,5%

Share of cargo: exported by road transport from Poland imported by road transport to Poland

The Polish transport sector plays a significant role in the European market. Road transport road performance carried out by Polish companies amounted to 14.4% of the entire EU carriage, which makes Poland rank second after Germany and before Spain and France. The share of Polish companies in international carriage was even higher and amounted to over 24%, which made them the leader with Spain and Germany trailing behind6.

The German market is important for the Polish road transport sector not only because of the scale but mainly because of its geographical location: providing services in almost all Western European countries entails traveling across Germany.

After the global economic crisis Central and Eastern European were able to faster than Methodcompanies III Method IV recover 8,50 eur/h European those from Western Europe. In 2010, Western companies found their road performance was 8% below the 2007-2008 level, i.e. before 8,05 EUR/hthe crisis, and since that 0,45 EUR/h

4,5 EUR/h

6,03 EUR/h

6

time companies in our region have improved their results by an average of 8%. Companies in Poland, Bulgaria, Slovakia and the Czech Republic have experienced the fastest growth7.

3,14 EUR/h

Ibid. Ibid. 7 Task A – Executive Summary Collection and Analysis of Data on the Structure of the Road Haulage Sector in the European Union, February 2014, s. 4, http://ec.europa. eu/transport/modes/road/ studies/road_en.htm 8 Cabotage means that an entrepreneur provides land transport services as part of the economic activity it conducts without a registered office in a particular country. For example, a Method I Polish carrierMethod II is commissioned to transport goods inside Germany. The legal framework for cabotage is provided in regulation no. 1072/2009. 5

Domestic and international carriage International carriage is gaining more and more importance in the sector, especially in the EU market. The year 2014 saw a fall in domestic carriage using road transport by 0.8% and road performance in ton-kilometers by 3.7% on the previous year. At the same time international carriage increased by 4.9% in tons and 4.8% in ton-kilometers. In effect, the share of international carriage in overall transport rose from 14.1% to 14.8% in tons, and from 59.5% to 61.5% in ton-kilometers5.

Geography of carriages In Poland, international carriage both in terms of exports and imports is dominated by carriage to and from European Union countries (92.4%). Transport to and from Germany played a special role among individual states.

Polish companies operate in Germany with regard to various activities: • two-way carriage between Poland and Germany; • carriage among Germany and third countries; • transit through Germany (without loading and unloading); • as part of cabotage8.

5,36heading? EUR/h Impact of the MiLoG law on the Polish road market sector 8 Where is the Single European Market 4 EUR/h

Figure 7. Share of companies from individual regions in road transport international cargo carriage Śląskie

14,4%

Dolnośląskie

13,2%

Wielkopolskie

12,7%

Mazowieckie

9,2%

Lubuskie

7,2%

Zachodniopomorskie

6,5%

Małopolskie

6,4%

Łódzkie

5,8%

Kujawsko-pomorskie

4,1%

Pomorskie

4,0%

Opolskie

3,3%

Podlaskie

3,0%

Podkarpackie

2,9%

Lubelskie

2,8%

Warmińsko-mazurskie Świętokrzyskie

2,6% 1,9%

Source: GUS (Central Statistical Office of Poland)

In 2013, Germany registered the total value of cabotage amounting to 9971 million tkm, of which 4431 million tkm (43%) was conducted by Polish carriers. Cabotage still remains an insignificant fraction of Germany’s overall transport market, which amounted to 256,721 million tkm in 2013, less than 4%. However, in recent years it has been rising dynamically and it has grown by a factor of almost three (from 3600 million tkm) since 2007. Cabotage is raising efficiency in transport by decreasing the number of empty-leg journeys and external costs of transport (by lowering congestion and exhaust emissions). Most international carriage is conducted by companies located in the west and south of the country, namely in the Śląskie, Dolnośląskie and Wielkopolskie regions, and the least — by companies in the east: from the Warmińsko-Mazurskie to Podkarpackie regions.

Employment and remuneration The average employment in the road transport sector based on job contracts in companies with more than nine employees stood at 230.3 thousand people in 2013 and was 2.1% higher than in 2012. The average gross salary of people with job contracts in these companies amounted to 2867.1 PLN and rose by 2% during the year. In 2013, the average gross salary was at the level of 3191.93 PLN in the entire domestic economy, which means it was higher by almost 325 PLN (or over 11%). The average salary concerned all those employed in the sector. This does not mean that Polish drivers receive salaries that are below the national average: amounts due to international drivers include business expenses and lump sums which formally are not classified as remuneration. The structure of remuneration is described in chapter 3.

Where is the Single European Market heading? Impact of the MiLoG law on the Polish road market sector 9

Financial standing of road transport sector companies For the present report the authors studied the financial results of the 1074 biggest companies operating in the road transport sector9. 74.79% of these were Polish private enterprises, 19% — foreign companies (probably with private capital, too) and 5% were those with mixed capital. The leading role in the Polish road transport sector is played by companies with Polish and foreign private capital, which generate the majority of revenues (68% and 26% of revenues in total, respectively) and have the most assets (70% and 23%, respectively). State-owned businesses and cooperatives constitute a marginal fraction in all these respects. The oldest company we studied was founded in 1945 and the youngest — in 2012, but the majority of companies in the research group, i.e. 54%, was established between 2000 and 2009, especially during the 2007 boom in the transport market. The dynamic development of the Polish sector in those years may be attributed to Poland joining the EU in 2004. An increase in trade exchange with EU Member States meant more demand for transport of goods and may have contributed to a rise in the number of newly-established businesses. Those that were set up in the 1990s, when Poland began its transformation and transition to a free market economy, constituted 28% of all. The demand for transport services was spurred by the Polish economy having opened to foreign markets. As early as in 1991, Poland signed an associate agreement which established a relationship with the European Communities (later the European Union) and began exchanging industrial goods on the largest scale in the country’s history.

9 The list was created on the basis of Top 1500, a register of Poland’s biggest transport and logistics companies. Top 1500 is a “Truck&Business Polska” magazine ranking prepared on the basis of financial statements and economic indicators of companies in the sector obtained from Krajowy Rejestr Sądowy (Poland’s National Court Register).

The remaining 14% of companies are younger ones that were started between 2010 and 2013. The number of companies that have been created for the last couple of years confirms that the sector is dynamic, highly competitive and with low market entry thresholds.

Revenues of transport companies Analysis of revenue data shows that a small group of companies in the industry accounts for a considerable part of sales revenues in the entire sector, and a numerous group of businesses generates a relatively low percentage of the revenues. In 2013, the highest sales revenue of a company in the industry amounted to almost 399 million PLN, whereas 90% of companies did not reach levels higher than several hundred thousand PLN. The total value of sales revenues in the studied companies reached 23.5 billion PLN in 2013. Debt In addition, we verified debt levels of road transport companies in the country. The expected value of the overall debt ratio in companies stands at 0.57-0.67 according to modern corporate financial management theories. The average debt ratio for all the companies we examined amounted to 0.68, which means that road transport sector companies are heavily in debt. High debt levels may have been incurred by transport companies making widespread use of leasing as one of the main capital sources to buy new vehicles for their fleets. The ratios characteristic of big enterprises are the same for companies with various sales volumes. So debt as a way of financing their economic activities is commonly used by both smaller and larger companies in the sector. Profit levels in the sector Another indicator that was examined was the level of profits attained by road transport companies. In 2013, the researched companies generated the total net profit amounting to 749.4 million PLN. The net profit of the examined group stood at 671 million PLN considering the companies that closed the year below their profitability thresholds.

10 Where is the Single European Market heading? Impact of the MiLoG law on the Polish road market sector

Kujawsko-pomorskie

4,1%

Pomorskie

4,0%

Opolskie

3,3%

Podlaskie

3,0%

Podkarpackie

2,9%

Lubelskie

2,8%

Warmińsko-mazurskie

2,6%

Świętokrzyskie

The companies that reached 5 million PLN of net profit formed the largest group of the researched businesses (77.8%). The net profit they generated totaled over 526.3 million PLN, which accounts for 70.2% of net profits in all the examined entities.

Figure 8. Structure of costs of activities in selected EU member states 17% 18%

These data confirm the statement that companies in the sector are highly diversified. On the one hand, the sector has companies with considerable profits, and on the other hand, there are many more entities that make losses with the vast majority of businesses somewhere in the middle with profits reaching not more than 10 million PLN. Cost structure in the sector Road transport activities incur the following costs: • wages and other expenses paid to drivers (including business expenses, lump sums for lodging, training), • fuel expenses, • road tolls, • costs of financing investments, especially in fleets (cost of capital), • costs of registering and maintaining fleets, • taxes (PIT, CIT, VAT, tax on means of transport, property tax). The most significant costs of activities in European road transport companies relate to remuneration and fuel expenses, among others.

18%

29% 35%

38%

42%

There were only five companies with more than 10 million PLN in net profit and they constituted merely 0.5% of the studied group. Almost 20% of the researched companies made losses in their operational activities in 2013. In that year, the average profit in the studied group stood at 624,000 PLN, and the median — 166,000 PLN. The highest profit attained by one of the examined businesses amounted to 19.7 million PLN, and the highest loss stood at 8.8 million PLN.

1,9%

48% 33%

47% 56%

20%

35%

38%

38%

38%

35% 26%

24%

France

Portugal

Poland

Germany

Denmark

30%

Hungary

35%

The Netherlands

Other Remuneration Fuel

Source: EC report

In the figure above, fuel expenses include due taxes and surcharges. Driver expenses include remuneration, training and social security contributions. Other costs are associated with maintenance, insurance, taxes, depreciation, costs of financing and tires.

Where is the Single European Market heading? Impact of the MiLoG law on the Polish road market sector 11

Figure 9. Structure of operational costs in the studied companies11

Figure 10. Sales dynamics and net margins in the studied companies between 2010 and 2013

35%

18,2%

19,0%

Other operational costs

30%

8,0%

8,1%

Remuneration

25%

39,8%

39,7%

External services

29,7%

28,6%

Energy

5%

Depreciation

0%

20% 15% 10%

4,3%

2012

4,5%

2013

2010

2011

2012

2013

Dynamics of sales Net margin

Source: Own elaboration based on Top 1500

Source: Own elaboration based on Top 15000

Fuel has the lowest share in French road transport companies’ costs and the largest in Poland and Portugal. Personnel costs, in turn, are the highest in Denmark and the lowest in Poland10. Compared to EU member states, Polish companies spend more on fuel and considerably less on driver wages (with a large share of external services).

which is also reflected in the high level of external services costs.

Data analysis for the 1074 examined companies in the road transport sector confirms a different cost structure. Differences between the tables presented above are due to different classifications and presentations of some cost positions.

During this period sales kept on rising, but the dynamics of the growth were lower and lower. Figures for orders must have been closely related to the economic situation and the level of international exchange of goods, which have been subject to turbulences for the last couple of years.

For example, costs of remuneration in the studied sample of enterprises on average amount to only 8% of operational costs, whereas the figure for Poland stands at 20% according to the European Commission. The Number of products difference is caused by the fact that remuneration costs in the studied sample include only basic pay. However, driver pay is also Autarky composed of business expenses Exchange ofand goods lump sums for lodging, which are likely to be included in the amount cited by the Commission. Task A: Collection and Analysis of Data on the Structure of the Road Haulage Sector in the European Union, Aecom, European Commission, 3 February 2014 [http://ec. europa.eu/transport/modes/ road/studies/road_en.htm] 11 Data available from 331 companies. 12 Polski transport samochodowy: Rynek – Koszty – Ceny, Instytut Transportu Samochodowego, Warszawa, 2012, p. 17 10

Dynamics of sales and net margins Analysis of the examined companies in the road transport sector also concerned their average dynamics of sales and their net margins between 2010 and 2013.

In the studied period, margin levels, however, kept on changing, and both increases and decreases in their values were reported. The results are indeed a proof that Number products margins areofnot really high in the sector. Possibilities of lowering margins when it comes to changes to the Przepływ structure of costs (e.g. statutory Capital obligation pay Autarky flow to raise kapitałów elements) are limited. Potential and challenges in the sector Competitive market, low margins The transport market is now a consumer market, characterized by supply being higher than demand12. ThisWealthy meanscountry that the consumer can choose a means of transport and influence the conditions under which transport services are provided. Since transport services Poor country are homogeneous (with little diversity), carriers compete on prices to win over customers.

A survey conducted among members of an association for road transport sector employers showed a considerable difference between the average share of basic pay Wealthy country in the costs of transport for own use (15.3%) and driver pay with business expenses and lump sums for lodging (24.9%) in the total expenses. Moreover, some drivers Poor country are self-employed, which means that remuneration they receive is classified as external services. Many transport Lasting gap companies also deal with forwarding; in other in wealth levels words, among countries they commission transport services to other businesses,

Decreasing gap in wealth levels among countries

Time

12 Where is the Single European Market heading? Impact of the MiLoG law on the Polish road market sector

Time

The market for companies operating in the road transport sector remains heavily fragmented. According to estimates of the European Commission there are about 600,000 companies in the sector, 80% of which are microenterprises with up to nine employees and 99% with no more than 50 employees. On the other hand, recent years have witnessed larger companies playing a slightly more important role in the market13. As the average weight of carried goods is decreasing and the distances for which goods are moved is becoming longer, the market is faced with stronger and stronger tendencies to consolidate and develop large logistics companies14. The economic crisis led to a decrease in margins both in the logistics and road transport markets. Less profitable activities were commissioned to smaller businesses, which created more relationships in supply chains. The financial standing of many companies in the sector across Europe is pretty sensitive (e.g. according to Banque de France one in three French companies in the sector is threatened with bankruptcy). On the other hand, relatively low market entry thresholds mean that the companies that have gone out of business return to the market or are replaced by new enterprises (e.g. despite an economic slowdown in Spain the number of Community licenses grew from under 26,000 in 2010 to over 27,000 in 2012). This proves that companies operating in the sector are capable of adapting rapidly to changing economic conditions15. In the last decade transport companies have made considerable investments to upgrade their fleets and raise related environmental standards. At the same time the sector’s representatives stress that social conditions for drivers have improved, including those related to working time, breaks and rest, which has contributed directly to better road safety. Dependence on external factors The road transport sector is strongly dependent on external factors which can impact the results of both individual companies and the entire sector. Factors related to costs incurred by road transport companies are particularly important — with relatively low margin

levels a rapid increase in one of the cost elements may have a detrimental effect on the profitability of the businesses. • Legislation risks. Road transport is heavily regulated both on domestic and European levels. A variety of regulations concern many operational aspects of transport companies: from road safety, through environmental protection standards to labor law relating to both drivers’ social conditions and pay, which is given particular attention in the report. All of these affect the financial standing of companies operating in the road transport sector. Some European entrepreneurs believe that the sector is at serious risk of being over-regulated. • Economic situation in Poland and EU member states. The sector’s performance is based on carriage volumes and these, in turn, are closely aligned to the state of the economy and economy-related trade exchange. During the boom that started in 1995 the value of the entire EU market tripled. The 2007-2009 financial crisis meant an adjustment to the sector’s revenues. Since 2010 Central and Eastern European companies, also in Poland, have begun to recover thanks to an improvement in domestic markets and a rise in Western European market shares16. • Fuel prices. As already stated above, fuel prices are a major cost factor in road transport companies. Depending on an individual EU member state they account from 24 to 38% of their overall expenses. Fuel price fluctuations in global markets instantly affect companies’ performance. Transport companies protect themselves from this risk by making the price of their services dependent on that of fuel. Accordingly, decreasing fuel prices, the trend we are faced with this year, improve the financial standing of transport businesses. • Level of employee pay. Apart from fuel driver pay is also an important cost factor. Changes to remuneration and other payments that result both from market conditions and relevant regulations also have a significant influence on the profitability of individual companies.

Report from the Commission to the European Parliament and the Council on the State of the Union Road Transport Market, Brussels, 14 April 2014, p. 5 14 Task A…, p. 7 15 Report…, pp. 5-6 16 Task A…, pp. 4-5 13

Where is the Single European Market heading? Impact of the MiLoG law on the Polish road market sector 13

The sector’s dependence on external factors is evident in the recent Russian embargo on EU food. In Poland there were 3,000 companies that specialized in carrying goods to the east. They had a fleet of about 30,000 trucks and in 2013 they had about 270,000 runs to Russia, which generated 700 million EUR in revenue. Food transports accounted for 60% of them. As a consequence of the Russian ban on fruit and vegetable imports their margins dropped by 20-30%, and the number of orders fell dramatically17. Russia also forbid transit transportation of goods subject to embargo regimes through its territories, e.g. to Kazakhstan and Mongolia. Another example can be found in a Supreme Court resolution dated June 2014 on business expenses for drivers sleeping in their truck cabins18. The Court ruled that if a driver was ensured lodging during international transport in their truck cabin only, that did not equal being provided with free lodging, so business expenses should be paid. New rules may be applied retroactively reaching back three years, and in some individual cases drivers may demand that their employers pay them back a staggering several dozen thousand PLN. According to estimates of the sector’s representatives, the total value of drivers’ claims reached 40 million PLN19,20. W. Pawłuszko, Kryzys na Wschodzie uderzył w przewoźników, 19 December 2014, https://www.politykainsight.pl/gospodarka/ transport/1603501,1,sytuacja-jak-rosyjskie-embargo-wplywa-na-przewoznikow-drogowych.read 18 Uchwała SN (Supreme Court resolution) II PZP 1/14 19 W. Pawłuszko, Op cit. 20 Although laws on lodging business expenses, including free lodging, are being examined by the Polish Constitutional Tribunal under reference K 11/15 and have been referred for a preliminary ruling to the European Court of Justice, the number of lawsuits filed in the transport sector is not on the decrease.11/15 oraz pytania prejudycjalnego do Trybunału Sprawiedliwości Unii Europejskiej, skala pozwów przeciw pracodawcom w sektorze transportu nie maleje. 21 ETF (the European Trade Federation), DTL (the Association of Danish Transport and Logistics) and NTR (the French Federation for Road Transport). 22 Report from the Commission…, p. 6 23 Ibidem, pp. 11-13 24 Ibidem, p. 21 17

Competition in the European market Competing for Western European domestic markets is a major factor in deciding the sector’s future. Markets of carriages in the case of which the EU’s internal borders are not crossed still account for two thirds of the entire European Union road transport market. In the Fifteen the proportion reaches as much as 78%. In turn, the great European five markets (Germany, France, the UK, Italy, and Spain) account for 80% of the EU’s entire domestic markets. For this reason transport companies from these countries expect their governments to protect their respective domestic markets from transport businesses from other UE member states to provide cabotage services.

In addition, according to estimates from the European Commission, although remuneration costs in countries that accessed the EU in 2004 and 2007, including Poland, are still lower than in Western Europe, they are gradually approaching this level, which enables excluding any risk of unfair competition23. Domestic control systems for ensuring compliance with the regulations in the road transport sector is an important factor that influences competition in the EU market. In each member state this problem is regulated differently, which makes it difficult for the conditions for competition on the European transport market to even out. The European Commission paid attention to pathologies in the area, including controls aimed at foreign companies operating in a given market. Brussels promotes common control standards and information exchange among member states’ authorities. On the other hand, the Commission reports an improvement in the number of drivers in the sector complying with relevant regulations. Future challenges In a long time perspective insufficient employee numbers can also present a serious challenge to the sector. Drivers are aging and in Germany alone 250,000 of them are going to retire in the next 10-15 years. Workforce shortages were already felt before the economic crisis. In some EU member states companies hired drivers from non-EU countries. New technologies will play a bigger and bigger role. Car computers, new digital tachographs and other mobile devices together with related applications will play an increasing role in organizing the operations of transport companies and ensuring that regulations are complied with by managers and employees. Employing new technologies to be used by aging drivers will require the intensification of adaptation efforts24.

Some Western European market players21 even claim that competition from carriers coming from countries with lower costs and providing cabotage services have led to job losses. According to preliminary estimates from the European Commission these statements have not turned out to be true and the number of employees in the entire sector in the European Union returned to its pre-crisis level as early as in 201122.

14 Where is the Single European Market heading? Impact of the MiLoG law on the Polish road market sector

Summary

Road transport market

International carriage is gaining

The sector is strongly

The road transport sector

more and more significance

dependent on external factors,

is very fragmented. It is

in the sector. Their share in

particularly on the cost side. It

dominated by microenterprises

carriage and road performance

is considerably influenced by

with up to nine employees.

is on the increase, which

legislation risks (both on the EU

Lately, however, larger

compensates for the stagnation

and national levels), but also

companies have been gaining

in the domestic market. The

the overall economic situation

in importance. Data analysis

most significant amount of

in Poland and EU countries, fuel

shows that a small group of

carriage is conducted to and

prices, and employee-related

enterprises generates the vast

from the European Union,

expenses. The Russian embargo

majority of sales revenue in the

especially Germany.

on EU food and a judgment of the Polish Supreme Court

entire sector. The transport market is now a

regarding business expenses

It can also be seen that

consumer market, characterized

on driver lodging (thereby

between 2010 and 2013 sales

by supply being higher than

increasing costs) are examples

in transport companies kept

demand. The consumer can

of how external factors affect

on rising, yet the dynamics of

choose a means of transport

the sector.

this growth was getting lower

and influence the conditions

and lower. At the same time

under which transport services

Competing for Western

margins in the sector remained

are provided. Since transport

European domestic markets

at a rather low level. The

services are only slightly

will be a significant factor

recovery of the sector after

diversified, carriers compete on

in deciding the future of

the 2007-2009 economic crisis

prices to win over customers.

the sector. The market will

proves that road transport

be shaped mainly by new

companies have strong

technologies and expected

adaptive capabilities

labor shortages.

Where is the Single European Market heading? Impact of the MiLoG law on the Polish road market sector 15

The influence of the MiLoG implementation on the Polish road transport sector and its economic environment

In order to determine the potential influence of the MiLoG implementation on the Polish road transport sector, it is necessary to specify the nature of the regulation first. This chapter presents its scope and the results of the impact assessment study.

Para. 1 sec. 2 MiLoG. 26 Para. 1 sec. 1 MiLoG. 27 A review of MiLoG provisions was prepared based on an expert opinion of J. Barcz titled „Niemiecka ustawa o płacy minimalnej (MiLoG) a transport międzynarodowy w świetle prawa Unii Europejskiej” commissioned by the „Transport i Logistyka Polska” Employers’ Association (Związek Pracodawców). 28 Para. 20 MiLoG. 29 Law on the Posting of Workers (ArbeitnehmerEntsendegeset, AEntG) dated 20 April 2009. 30 Para. 2 AEntG. 31 Para. 20 MiLoG 32 Wendler, Tremml, Świadczenie usług w Niemczech po wprowadzeniu płacy minimalnej od 1.01.2015 r.,Rechtsanwälte, Düsseldorf-München-BerlinBrüssel-Warschau-Krakau, Berlin 2014. Two parts of this presentation can be found on the website of the Trade and Investment Promotion Section (WPHI) of the Polish Embassy in Berlin. 33 In the directive on the posting of workers 96/71/EC and case laws by the European Court of Justice. 34 Recital 40 of the justification of the 7 November 2013 judgment by the Court regarding Isbir Case C-522/13 says that “only the elements of remuneration which do not alter the relationship between the service provided by the worker, on the one hand, and the consideration that he receives in return, on the other, can be taken into account in determining the minimum wage”. 35 The 12 February 2015 judgment regarding Case C-396/13. 36 Para. 16 MiLoG. 25

Context of the implementation of the law and its provisions The minimum wage law (Gesetz zur Regelung eines allgemeinen Mindestlohns, MiLoG) was passed on 11 August 2014, became effective on 16 August 2014, and came into force on 1 January 2015. It sets up the hourly minimum wage of 8.50 EUR25 and guarantees each employee the right to make a claim against the employer to pay at least that26.

person that must perform paid work for the sake of another person, whereby it is sufficient for the worker to have the obligation — under a relevant employment contract regardless of its name — to carry out jobs as instructed by their supervisor and hence acknowledge the employer’s right to use their labor32. The scope of the MiLoG then concerns workers employed in companies with their registered offices outside Germany as long as they work in that country.

The MiLoG is supplemented with a number of important regulations that clarify obligations resulting thereof27, e.g. the obligation to report the minimum wage to a relevant office (here Bundesfinanzdirektion West), as well as file and retain relevant documentation.

Defining the minimum wage EU law provides the setting of a minimum wage and its definition are left to the national legislator and the practice of a given State. The MiLoG does not clarify which remuneration elements can be counted towards the minimum wage. They come from national practice (in Germany mainly from case-laws by Bundesarbeitsgericht — BAG) and guidelines under Union law33.

The MiLoG is applicable in the territory of Germany regardless of the “employment agreement’s” time scope. The law obliges employers with “the headquarters at home and abroad” to pay employees employed in Germany (in German: im Inland) at least the aforementioned minimum wage28. The German act is supplemented with a law on posting employees which says that minimum wages must be “applied” with reference to “employment agreements” between an employer with their main office abroad and their employee employed in Germany (im Inland)29. The aim of the other law is to ensure proper working conditions for employees posted across borders and guarantee fair and efficient competition conditions30. More importantly, the law on the posting of workers does not introduce any limitations as to the duration of “employment agreements” falling within the scope of the minimum wages act. For this reason it also applies to workers who drive through the territory of Germany only for a brief period of time. The laws apply to all workers that must follow their employers’ instructions. The MiLoG is applicable with reference to “workers”. Each employee has the right to a claim against their employer to pay the hourly wage of at least 8.50 EUR, and the employer must pay at least that wage31. Under German law a “worker” is every

In line with the guidelines of the directive on the posting of workers “allowances specific to the posting shall be considered to be part of the minimum wage, unless they are paid in reimbursement of expenditure actually incurred on account of the posting, such as expenditure on travel, board and lodging.” The similar was held by the European Court of Justice34 and the German BAG. The European Court stipulated, however, that the national definition of the minimum wage cannot create “an obstacle to the freedom to provide services in Member States”35. Severe administrative requirements and control measures. The MiLoG has been the basis for administrative requirements and control measures against employers with their registered offices outside Germany, including transport businesses. Employers are obliged to give numerous notifications if their employee performs work in Germany36. Among additional requirements the following should be mentioned: • the obligation to give notification of their workers in a German-language form with detailed information about them,

16 Where is the Single European Market heading? Impact of the MiLoG law on the Polish road market sector

• employers’ commitment to comply with the MiLoG as for supplying relevant documentation (in German), stored outside Germany and submitted upon the request of a competent German authority, • the obligation to submit an operational schedule that may cover the period of employment of up to six months. Employers with their registered offices outside Germany must store the documentation (in German) in the country for at least two years that is related to the requirements laid down in the MiLoG, in particular precise data on the period of employment in Germany and the remuneration paid37 (with certain simplifications for transport companies that hire mobile workers). The employer may be released from the obligations to make filings and store documentation if the worker receives a monthly remuneration of at least EUR 2,958 (or in excess of 2000 EUR (gross) regularly paid within the last 12 months)38. Fines for failing to comply with the MiLoG. The law provides for heavy fines for non-compliance with its requirements: • up to 500,000 EUR for failing to pay the wage due or deferring the payment; • up to 30 000 EUR in each case as laid down in the act39. Fines may be imposed for a failure to comply with the obligations to give all kinds of notifications, cooperate during control, confirm working time, store working time documents and provide easy access to such documentation. Violating the MiLoG is regarded as an administrative offense40. Relevant proceedings are set out in the Federal Code of Administrative Offenses41. Other regulations in Europe The German law has become a model for other regulations in EU member states. Adopted on 10 July 2015, the French act for the growth, activity and equal economic opportunities (the so called Macron act after the surname of Emmanuel Macron, its initiator and the Minister of Economy) is the most important. The law is designed to reform wide sectors of the French economy, stimulate economic growth, investment and employment, mainly by reforming regulated professions as well as the labor, restructuring, and transport laws.

MINIMUM WAGE The minimum wage is one of the tools of an economic policy. This refers to the minimum pay that an employee must receive for the work he or she performs on an hourly or monthly basis. Applying such a wage creates a lot of controversy both in political and economic terms. The economic consequences of applying the minimum wage are ambiguous. The objective of applying it is to ensure that workers receive the subsistence level income and prevent a situation in which they cannot cover their living costs. It is particularly important in markets with economically active people figures higher than the number of job offers. Workers are then willing to work for low pay in order to keep their jobs. The grounds for applying the minimum wages is the belief that there is some fair distribution of income in the economy which should be ensured and enforced by the state. On the other hand, the minimum wage raises employment costs (assuming that some employers offer their workers lower wages), which may have a detrimental effect for the employees themselves. Increased employment costs may contribute to a rise in unemployment and, paradoxically, a fall in employees’ social security. In order to avoid higher employment costs employers might be motivated to offer employees civil-law agreements that do not provide for social benefits. In extreme cases this may lead to illicit employment. In economic theory the minimum wage may result in inefficiency, because in some markets the minimum wage can be higher than market balance remuneration (in other words, pay in the case of which demand for and supply of work are equal). This means employment below the optimum level required by the market, and then unemployment. In addition, the minimum wage set in a given country does not take account of regional differences in pay levels. Similar inefficiency is brought about by the minimum wage set in one country being applied in another.

The Macron act aims at combating illicit employment and “unfair social competition”, protecting the French economic and social model and French entrepreneurs. The loiMacron includes an amendment concerning the rules of posting employees during cabotage carriages in river and road transport. The law provides for the rules of posting employees to be applied for international road carriers conducting cabotage carriages in France. This means introducing the hourly minimum wage of at least 9.61 EUR42, fines for failing to comply with relevant obligations on part of companies, and tougher measures against illegal employment. The law also requires that companies fulfill a variety of obligations, including the obligation to have a representative in France, as well as translate and store documents where services are provided. The ordering party has a number of obligations, including the requirement to “stay vigilant”. The labor inspectorate will ensure that the law is adhered to. Both a foreign

Para. 17 sec. 2 MiLoG. However, employers must have the relevant documentation (in the German language) that proves that the aforementioned condition has been met at their disposal in Germany (Para. 1 Mindestlohndokume ntationspflichten-Verordnung — MiLoDokV). 39 Para. 21 MiLoG. 40 Ordnungswidrigkeiten. 41 Gesetz über Ordnungswidrigkeiten. 42 Cross-industry agreements may provide for higher minimum wages. 37 38

Where is the Single European Market heading? Impact of the MiLoG law on the Polish road market sector 17

LICZBA FIRM BIORĄCYCH UDZIAŁ W ANKIECIE WG UDZIAŁU ROBO TERYTORIUM NIEMIEC W ROBOCZOGODZINACH OGÓŁEM

114

11-20%

21-40%

As for a micro scale, i.e. individual companies, the effects will be diversified. First, the adverse consequences of the MiLoG implementation directly concern only companies that move goods inside Germany. The severity of the results is mainly conditional on the extent to which the operations of a particular company depend on carriages conducted in Germany. Since MiLoG provisions concern the hourly minimum wage, the best measure in this respect is the number of man-hours spent in Germany.

13

46

81

The influence of the MiLoG implementation on the Polish road transport sector and its economic environment The scale of the MiLoG impact on the Polish road transport sector Germany is Poland’s main partner in international carriage. It is the country where about 40% of cargo exported and imported via road is loaded or unloaded. This means that the consequences of the implementation of the German minimum wage law will be significant on a macro scale, i.e. for the sector.

54%

116

Subsequent laws concerning drivers have been implemented in Norway (to the amount of 18 EUR) and they are going to be introduced in Belgium, the Netherlands, Luxembourg, and Italy.

Figure 11. The number of companies that took part in the survey by the number of man hours worked in Germany in the total number of man-hours

108

company and the ordering party may be fined from 10,000 to 500,000 EUR for failing to do so.

0-10%

41-60%

61-80%

81-100%

1-5

Source: Own elaboration

companies.

For the vast majority of respondents (70%) the share of man-hours worked in Germany in the total number of man-hours amounts to less than 40%. The average share of man-hours worked in Germany in the total of man-hours forTABORU the studied sample at ŹRÓDŁA number FINANSOWANIA FIRM stands TRANSPORTOWY Unfortunately, official statistics do not contain data on 30%. The value obtained for the studied sample may the share of man-hours worked in the volume of however be underestimated with regard to the average carriage in individual companies. Information on the figure for the entire sector. share of man-hours worked in Germany in the total resources number of man-hours was obtained from a survey ThisOwn stems from the limitations of the survey that 65.2% was conducted among users of Trans.eu, a freight exchange. carried out that may have covered a group of responLeasing 54.6% dents that was unrepresentative of the sector. The Questions were answered by 717 respondents, the vast straight majority use the Trans.eu freight Credit of respondents 21.7% majority of whom, i.e. 540 entities, carry out carriages exchange. Analysis of existing orders offered on Trans.eu Hire, long-term rent 6.6% in Germany. Additionally, the survey was targeted at the (as of 9 September 2015) shows that they mainly have members of an association for road transport sector short Lack deadlines. This might mean that the site is visited of data 1.3% employers. Answers were obtained from 24 responmore frequently by micro- and small enterprises which Loans in0.9% dents, all of whom conduct carriages in Germany. One are more flexible the way they respond to the needs of the survey questions concerns the share of man-hours of the market. worked by the employees of a respondent’s company in Germany in the total number of man-hours. 478 Among respondents of the survey the Trans.eu site was participants answered that question. The results show largely used by companies with no more than 10 that the share is very much diversified for individual vehicles, that is micro- and small enterprises (according 18 Where is the Single European Market heading? Impact of the MiLoG law on the Polish road market sector

LICZBA FIRM BIORĄCYCH UDZIAŁ W ANKIECIE WG UDZIAŁU ROBOCZOGODZIN PRZEPRACOWANYCH NA TERYTORIUM NIEMIEC W ROBOCZOGODZINACH OGÓŁEM

Figure 12. Percentage of companies participating in the survey by the fleet size 54%

114

The potential underestimation of the average share of the man-hours worked in Germany in the total number of man-hours provided in the survey is also confirmed by the fact that the indicator was higher and amounted to 39% for survey participants being members of an association for transport companies. The association has mainly medium-sized and large enterprises as members. In-depth interviews with representatives of medium-sized and large transport businesses also prove that the share of man-hours worked in Germany in the total number of man-hours is higher than 30% for this group. For the sake of further estimates, however, it was accepted on a precautionary basis that the value stood at 30%.

2%

2%

4%

3%

9%

20%

6%

13

46

81

108

116

to the classification by the Motor Transport Institute/ Instytut Transportu Samochodowego43).

Direct economic influence of the introduction of the MiLoG 0-10% 11-20% 21-40% 41-60% 61-80% 81-100% 1-5 6-10 11-15 16-20 21-30 31-50 51-100 >100 Direct consequences of the MiLoG implementation concern companies that conduct carriages in Germany. vehicles In the short term, companies incur greater costs related to pay for drivers working in the country in order to Source: Own elaboration comply with the minimum wage act. The severity of the direct consequence that the MiLoG introduction has for The amount to cover the expenses of a business trip is individual companies hinges first of all on three factors: laid down in Art. 775 (4) of the Labor Code, which says • the share of carriages conducted in Germany in the it cannot be lower than the amount due for traveling in total number of carriages; the country, i.e. 30 PLN44 (7.1 EUR based on the average exchange rate of the National Bank of Poland as of 9 • the payment scheme for workers on business in ÓDŁA FINANSOWANIA TABORU FIRM TRANSPORTOWYCH September 2015). The annex to the Polish Social Policy Germany; and Labor Minister regulation dated 29 January 2013 • the interpretations of MiLoG provisions. concerning the amount of dues to which an employee of a State or local-government unit financed by the Payment schemes for employees of companies State budget is entitled sets an amount of 49 EUR for operating Own resources in the Polish road transport sector 65.2% business expenses that an employee is entitled to when In practice various payment schemes may co-exist for Leasing traveling to Germany. An employee on a business trip workers on a business trip in Germany.54.6% Payments to the abroad is also entitled to reimbursement of lodging worker that conducts carriages in Germany is made up Credit 21.7% expenses. The annex sets the maximum limit for reimof the following components: Hire, long-term 6.6% bursement of lodging expenses in Germany, which is • wagesrent under the employment contract that comprise 150 EUR. When an employee is unable to produce basic and additional pay (premiums, overtime pay Lack of data 1.3% relevant documents to ascertain the amount spent on etc.), lodging, they receive 25% of the limit, which is 37.5 • payments cover the expenses of a business trip: Loans to 0.9% EUR for Germany. The other option is widely used in the – business expenses, transport sector since a number of drivers sleep in the – lump sums for lodging. cabins of their trucks (which is legal provided a cabin has a berth).

K. Bentkowska-Senator, Z. Kordel, J. Waskiewicz, Małe i średnie przedsiębiorstwa w transporcie samochodowym. Stan - strategia. Monografia, Instytut Transportu Samochodowego, Warszawa 2015, p.11 44 The amount of business expenses set out in Para. 7 sec. 1 of the Polish Social Policy and Labor Minister regulation dated 29 January 2013 concerning the amount of dues to which an employee of a State or local-government unit financed by the State budget is entitled 43

Where is the Single European Market heading? Impact of the MiLoG law on the Polish road market sector 19

As an examination of legislative acts shows, the amount of dues to cover business travel related expenses may be in the following ranges: Table 1. The range of additional allowances for working abroad Business expenses

7,1 – 49 euro

Lump sum for lodging

37,5 – 150 euro

Total

44,6 – 199 euro

Source: Own elaboration

Such a model of allowances paid to Polish drivers going abroad can be mainly justified historically. Drivers’ basic pay is low because most payments that they receive are sector-related. To compensate for the inconveniences of conducting carriages, such as e.g. long stay away from home and arduous conditions for working and recreation, driver pay is increased by business expenses and a lump sum for lodging. These elements have particular significance in international carriage, especially in developed countries, where costs of living are much higher than those in Poland. The amount of allowances added to driver basic pay is set to compensate for the difference in costs incurred and to even out the wage gap between Polish and Western European drivers. The total amount of driver pay that comes close to that in Western Europe is meant to discourage them from emigrating and working for transport companies abroad. Western European models of driver pay have evolved in totally different directions: both pay and prices have always been higher than those in Central and Eastern Europe. For this reason it has not been necessary to even out the gap between pay and costs with regard to those in territories in which international carriage is conducted. http://www.zoll.de/DE/ Fachthemen/Arbeit/ Mindestarbeitsbedingungen/ MindestlohnMindestlohngesetz/mindestlohn-mindestlohngesetz. html?nn=529862#doc529866bodyText7 [accessed: 09.09.2015]

45

For the sake of further calculations we will adopt the minimum amount of business travel related pay, i.e. 44.6 EUR (which means 5.58 EUR per hour during an eight-hour working day). The amount includes business expenses and a lump sum for lodging for work in Germany. Basing calculations on this option is justified

because it is widely used in the road transport sector. The amount of business expenses and a lump sum for lodging should be increased by the amount of basic pay. Sticking to the minimum option, let us assume that a driver’s basic pay is equal to the 2015 minimum pay, i.e. amounts to 2.47 EUR per hour. To sum up, a driver that works in Germany receives the minimum wage of 8.05 EUR per hour. It needs to be stressed that there is no unambiguous interpretation of MiLoG provisions concerning pay components which can be counted towards the base covered by the requirements of the act. In particular, it is not clear whether business expenses and a lump sum for lodging can be considered components of basic pay that fall within the scope of the minimum wages act. For this reason the sector’s representatives should not be too optimistic about the slight difference between the amount of 8.05 EUR calculated above and the minimum wage of 8.5 EUR as laid down in the MiLoG. The difference between the minimum wage as specified in the MiLoG and the Polish pay can be calculated in a variety of ways depending on basic pay and MiLoG interpretations. Method I. Only basic pay calculated on the basis of the Polish minimum wage is covered by the MiLoG. In this case an increase in employment costs required after the MiLoG implementation is the biggest. As for the Polish minimum wage (which amounted to 2.47 EUR in 2015) the increase is equal to 6.03 EUR, or 244%. Method II. Only basic pay calculated on the basis of the sector’s average is covered by the MiLoG. Based on Central Statistical Office of Poland data the average wage in the road transport sector equals 4 EUR per hour. Then the increase will amount to 4.5 EUR, or 113%, as required in the MiLoG. Method III. MiLoG provisions apply to basic pay and part of dues to cover business travel related expenses, namely a lump sum for lodging and business expenses. According to information found on the German Ministry of Finance web page and concerning customs45, business travel related allowances (business expenses plus a lump sum for lodging) cannot be counted towards basic pay if they have been incurred and

20 Where is the Single European Market heading? Impact of the MiLoG law on the Polish road market sector

Share of cargo: exported by road transport from Poland imported by road transport to Poland

0,45 EUR/h

3,14 EUR/h

4,5 EUR/h

6,03 EUR/h

reimbursed. The amount that is left after the minimum The following diagram shows the methods presented amount has been deducted to cover the costs of above: lodging and board can be regarded as the minimum Figure 13. Possible methods of calculating driver basic pay covered by the wage. After necessary calculations were made based on MiLoG amounts laid down in the relevant regulation,46 the minimum amount to cover the costs of lodging and Method I Method II Method III Method IV board in Germany amounts to 21.52 EUR per day, or 2.69 EUR per hour. According to the information 8,05 EUR/h provided above, the excess over that amount can be counted towards the minimum wage.

8,50 eur/h

5,36 EUR/h

4 EUR/h

Under Polish law the minimum amount of business 2,47 EUR/h expenses and a lump sum for lodging in Germany stands Minimum wage Polish minimum Average pay in Polish minimum wage at 5.58 EUR per hour, which means the excess of 2.89 + business expenses wage the sector (GUS data) + part of business and a lump sum for expenses and a lump EUR that can be counted towards the minimum pay. lodging sum for lodging that According to this method a pay increase necessary for exceeds living costs Source: Own elaboration reaching the hourly wage required under the German minimum wage law is equal to 3.14 EUR (provided that driver basic pay equals the Polish minimum wage, or Further calculations exclude method 1 as the least likely. 2.47 EUR per hour). The increase then amounts to 59%. They were carried out for the other three methods with particular attention to the second. The average pay as Method IV. MiLoG provisions apply to basic pay and calculated by the Central Statistical Office (GUS) seems the total of dues to cover business travel related to be a better reflection of reality, since the amount is expenses, namely a lump sum for lodging and business dedicated to the road transport sector (whereas the expenses. In this best case scenario for companies in the minimum pay is set for all industries and sectors in the sector the difference between the amount actually paid country). out to a driver for work in Germany and the amount as required in the MiLoG is insignificant and stands at the maximum of 0.45 EUR. In this case the implementation of the MiLoG has a limited impact on the road transport sector and the Polish economy.

Verordnung über die sozialversicherungsrechtliche Beurteilung von Zuwendungen des Arbeitgebers alsArbeitsentget(Sozialversicherungsentgeltverordnung - SvEV)

46

Where is the Single European Market heading? Impact of the MiLoG law on the Polish road market sector 21

Influence of the MiLoG implementation on the financial standing of companies operating in the sector The implementation of the MiLoG has directly resulted in a rise in employee pay in a short period of time, which has decreased profits and, consequently, margins. A simulation was carried out to calculate the new net margin considering the increase in employee pay to comply with MiLoG provisions. To conduct the simulation, we used financial data of 1074 enterprises. These were mainly big, middle-sized and small. The percentage of microenterprises in the sample is disproportionately small compared to their total number in the sector. The enterprises were classified by turnover volume47: • Microenterprises — turnover of up to 400,000 EUR; • Small enterprises — turnover of up to 3 million EUR; • Medium-sized enterprises — turnover of up to 18 million EUR; • Big enterprises — turnover in excess of 18 million EUR. Results of simulations of changes to the margin for the studied sample and their interpretation

The net margin provides information on how much net profit an enterprise generates from sales revenues. The net profit is the final result obtained from a company’s economic activities that takes account of basic activity, financial activities and taxes due. The net margin indicates the efficiency of a company’s activity in all aspects of its operations. It shows which part of sales revenues is left for the company after all dues have been paid.

Bentkowska-Senator, Z. Kordel, J. Waskiewicz, Małe i średnie przedsiębiorstwa w transporcie samochodowym. Stan - strategia. Monografia, Instytut Transportu Samochodowego, Warszawa 2015, p.10

47

Method II: A simulation of changes to the margin was carried out considering the following assumptions: • employee wage in the road transport sector stands at 4 EUR per hour (according to Central Statistical Office data); • the MiLoG does not take account of business expenses and a lump sum for lodging as basic pay components. For this reason it was accepted that the basis for remuneration is the amount of 4 EUR per hour. The most important results of the simulation of how margins have changed for the studied sample of companies are presented below. Following the MiLoG implementation: a) the average increase in remuneration costs stood at about 34%, i.e. on average almost 600,000 PLN on an annual basis; b) the average fall of the net margin was equal to 2.69 percentage points; c) the new average net margin after remuneration costs had risen amounted to -0.20%. d) 451 companies (i.e. 42% of the studied sample) would have a negative net margin as a result of the increase in remuneration costs. An examination of the studied sample shows that the financial standing of micro- and small enterprises will be affected the most in the wake of the MiLoG implementation. In the researched sample of microenterprises continued operation of 73% of them is threatened (because of negative net margin levels) and the average net margin for this group stands at -3.93%. The proportion of small companies that may go out of business stands at 65% and the figure is falling steadily for medium-sized and big enterprises. It needs to be stressed, however, that the proportion of companies with a negative net margin before the implementation of the MiLoG is the highest for micro- and small enterprises. In this respect the law makes things even worse. The results presented above show that the direct economic consequences of the MiLoG implementation may be quite severe for companies operating in the Polish road transport sector. Under economic calculation principles companies that have negative net margins (and hence negative net profit) are at risk of going out of business.

22 Where is the Single European Market heading? Impact of the MiLoG law on the Polish road market sector

Table 2. Net margin and percentage of companies with negative net margins by company size Type of the company size

Average net margin

Percentage of companies with neagtive net margins before the MiLoG implementation

Percentage of companies with neagtive net margins after the MiLoG implementation

Percentage of companies for which net margins became negative as result of the MiLoG implementation

Mikro

-3,93%

44%

73%

29%

Small

-0,19%

24%

65%

41%

Medium-sized

0,47%

10%

56%

46%

Large

-0,12%

3%

52%

49%

Source: Own elaboration based on Top 1500 and GUS data

In the worst case scenario it can be assumed that negative net margins make entrepreneurs close their businesses (or they are made to do so by a loss of financial liquidity and the inability to settle their liabilities). It can be inferred from this that 42% of the studied companies may cease operating as a result of the MiLoG implementation. It would be the most serious consequence that the MiLoG implementation would create for the Polish road sector and entire economy. The above conclusions were drawn based on a simulation carried out for the worst case scenario, which assumes that business expenses and a lump sump for lodging cannot be counted towards pay as laid down in the MiLoG. In addition, we considered the amount of the average basic pay in the road transport sector standing at 2,867 PLN a month according to Central Statistical Office data. As in-depth interviews show, the amount is now lower than the actual pay for drivers, because it probably does not include such additional sums as premiums. The higher the basic pay, which forms the basis for calculation, the less serious consequences the MiLoG implementation has. This means that the calculation results presented in this chapter constitute the boundary scenario. So in all likelihood the consequences of the MiLoG introduction will be less severe. In addition, it is possible that basic pay that is covered by the MiLoG will comprise part of allowances for working abroad and business travel expenses. The

results of simulations carried out for two methods that provide for the possibility to include part of all business travel expenses in basic pay, respectively, are presented below. Method III: A simulation of changes to the margin was carried out considering the following assumptions: • basic pay for employees of the road transport sector stands at 2.47 EUR per hour (Polish minimum wage); • according to the MiLoG part of business expenses and a lump sum for lodging are basic pay components to the extent that these elements are the excess over the minimum cost of living in Germany. In accordance with the approach described in the subchapter titled Payment schemes for employees of companies operating in the Polish road transport sector basic pay that falls within the scope of the MiLoG stands at 5.36 EUR per work hour in this case. The most important results of the simulation of how margins have changed for the studied sample of companies are presented below. Following the MiLoG implementation: a) the average increase in remuneration costs in companies stood at about 18%, i.e. over 300,000 PLN on average on an annual basis; b) the average fall of the net margin was equal to 1.4 percentage points; c) the average new net margin after remuneration costs had risen amounted to 1.08%;

Where is the Single European Market heading? Impact of the MiLoG law on the Polish road market sector 23

d) 278 companies (i.e. 26% of the studied sample) would have a negative net margin as a result of the increase in remuneration costs. Method IV: A simulation of changes to the margin was carried out considering the following assumptions: • basic pay for employees of the road transport sector stands at 2.47 EUR per hour (Polish minimum wage); • the MiLoG takes account of the total of business expenses and a lump sum for lodging as basic pay components; For the sake of estimates the minimum value of 8.05 EUR was assumed in the method. The most important results of the simulation of how margins have changed for the studied sample of companies are presented below. Following the MiLoG implementation: a) the average increase in remuneration costs in companies stood at about 2%, i.e. on average over 30,000 PLN on an annual basis, b) the average fall of the net margin was equal to 0.14 percentage points, c) the average new net margin after remuneration costs had risen amounted to 2.34%. d) 34 companies (i.e. 3% of the studied sample) would have a negative net margin as a result of the increase in remuneration costs. In the longer run the implementation of the MiLoG may also result in possible claims for drivers in the case of whom MiLoG provisions have not been complied with. On the basis of previous experiences with laws on lump sums for lodging it is highly likely that drivers will take legal action against their employers who have failed to pay them dues as laid down in the MiLoG. Potential claim amounts will be equal to the difference between the pay required under the MiLoG and the current pay of drivers who work in Germany. If it is assumed that companies do not adapt the amounts they pay to the requirements specified in the MiLoG, the total value of the claims may even stand at almost 2.7 billion PLN48.

Based on Central Statistical Office of Poland data on average wages and employment in the sector for companies with more than nine employees.

48

Possible adaptive activities declared by entrepreneurs in the sector The negative net margin means that the costs of running a business are higher than its revenues. The consequences of this imbalance will be different in the

short and the long run. It needs to be stressed that calculations regarding net margin changes and the percentage of companies that are at risk of going out of business presented in the previous subchapter are based on the static case scenario, i.e. without considering the activities that such enterprises conduct to improve their situations. Companies respond dynamically to changes in market trends and undertake adaptive action. As a result not all that suffer from negative net margin levels will cease operating. In the short run a company has limited adaptive capabilities. It is not capable of responding to a changed market situation in a flexible manner. It is bound by long-term contracts and agreements. In order to meet its obligations, it needs to generate revenues and cash flows even though realizing certain orders in new conditions may prove unprofitable. In the short run possible adaptive action is limited to bringing down current expenses and making shifts in the structure of costs incurred to cover increased costs of driver remuneration. Investments are at risk of being stopped, e.g. those in upgrading fleets, because investment expenses do not generate profit in the short run so they may affect a company’s profitability further. In the longer perspective a company has a wider range of adaptive tools. Respondents of the survey mentioned the following activities that transport companies may undertake if they are to fully comply with the MiLoG: a) limiting the number of carriages to Germany, b) decreasing their own margins, c) seeking savings in other areas of their operations, d) putting up prices for their contracting parties, e) looking for new transport markets, f) delegating the best qualified drivers with wages close to those required under the MiLoG to work in Germany, g) failing to adhere to pay-related MiLoG obligations, h) failing to adhere to MiLoG obligations concerning administration. Most respondents say that companies will probably raise prices for their contracting parties, seek new transport markets and limit the number of carriages to Germany in order to conform to the MiLoG.

24 Where is the Single European Market heading? Impact of the MiLoG law on the Polish road market sector

30% 20%

20%

9%

10%

6%

3%

4%

21 - 30

31 - 50

0% 1-5

6 - 10

11 - 15

16 - 20

51

vehicles

It needs to be stressed that putting up freight costs is possible only to a limited extent because transport services are quite homogeneous, in which case price diversity has little justification. Additionally, there is a great deal of competition among companies in the sector. Limiting the number of carriages in Germany may bring favorable consequences in the short term, because it means avoiding the MiLoG and its implications. However, in the longer run providing services in fewer markets may have serious negative consequences for the road transport sector. Companies in the sector have high fixed costs (leasing and loan servicing costs), which they are able to cover provided they have high volumes of services. What is more, introducing minimum wage laws in Western Europe may contribute to the fact that personnel costs will increasingly determine in which countries carriers will provide their services. Limiting the amount of time spent in countries with high minimum wages rather than reducing the number of empty-leg journeys will become an optimization criterion. In-depth interviews carried out among representatives of the sector supplemented this perspective with long-term adapting activities. It is possible that micro- and small enterprises will consolidate and form bigger entities in response to increased operational costs. Consolidation may help control and reduce operational costs as well as optimize carriage activities, including raising carriage volumes. According to analysis of net margin levels in the studied group of 1074 companies on average larger enterprises rarely have negative net margin levels. Therefore consolidation seems to be a rational response on the part of companies to the threat of them going out of business. For some entities MiLoG provisions and their implications will lead to professionalization of services. The implementation of the MiLoG is highly likely to drive the most unprofitable transport companies out of business if they conduct most of their activities in Germany. With operational activities increasing the remaining enterprises will probably seek other competitive advantages beside price. As net margins are falling, price competition may hurt dramatically the entire sector. Seeking new competitive edges may result in new investments to upgrade performance enhancing systems in companies and limit the necessity to replace their fleets.

In individual interviews representatives of the sector also suggested that the implementation of the MiLoG might bring about unfair competition and a subsequent failure to care about social conditions in the sector. In some POTENCJALNE TRANSPORTOWYCH companies drivers REAKCJE may be madeFIRM to exceed work hour WEDŁUG RESPONDENTÓW ANKIETY limits and give up breaks and rest time between journeys in order to raise efficiency

NA WPROWADZENIE

Figure 14. Possible responses on the part of transport companies to the MiLoG implementation according to survey respondents. Raised prices for contracting parties

Sought new transport markets

Reduced carriages to Germany Failed to comply with pay-related MiLoG provisions Failed to comply with administration-related MiLoG provisions Sought new savings in other areas of their economic activity Decreased their own margins Posted the best qualified drivers whose wages to work in Germany 0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

Source: Answers submitted by respondents of the survey on the Trans.eu exchange page

Indirect economic influence of the introduction of the MiLoG The MiLoG can have an indirect influence on companies in the road transport sector that do not conduct their operations in Germany and road transport related sectors. In the case of companies in the road transport sector that are not directly affected by the law one consequence is that it may change the geography of transport for Polish transport companies. According to respondents, increased costs of providing transport services in Germany will probably result in searching new transport markets. This means greater supply of transport services in those markets and, as a consequence, enhanced competition. The oversupply of services in those markets may make companies lower prices and compete on price, which may mean worsening their financial standing.

Where is the Single European Market heading? Impact of the MiLoG law on the Polish road market sector 25

LICZBA FIRM BIORĄCYCH UDZIAŁ W ANKIECIE WG UDZIAŁU ROBOCZOGODZIN PRZEPRACOWANYCH NA TERYTORIUM NIEMIEC W ROBOCZOGODZINACH OGÓŁEM

Decreased financial capacity of companies in the road transport sector may also have long-term adverse consequences on the development and upgrading road transport companies. Such companies may have problems obtaining debt financing (credits, leasing, loans). 20%

46

81

It needs to be stressed, however, that change to the geography of transport may not be the perfect solution to overcoming the problem of greater transport costs in Germany. Other European countries such as France, Italy and Norway have already implemented or are going to implement similar regulations. This will make it difficult for companies to diversify their activities in terms of geography.

The total value of new contracts concluded in 2014 and concerning lease of vehicles amounted to 9.3 billion PLN in road transport49. Greater operational costs after the MiLoG implementation and shrinking of transport markets after the number of possible carriages has been lowered may result in bringing down the financial capacity of companies operating in the sector. In effect, they may not be able to pay off their leasing installments or debt. Considering the significant value of assets financed from foreign equities, the MiLoG implementation may exert a negative indirect influence on the financial sector. 54%

114

108

116

Warto jednak zaznaczyć, że zmiana kierunków przewozów może nie stanowić optymalnego rozwiązania problemu wzrostu kosztów przewozów w Niemczech. Kolejne kraje europejskie jak Francja, Włochy, Norwegia wprowadziły lub planują wprowadzenie podobnych regulacji. Utrudni to dywersyfikację geograficzną działalności.

Own resources

65.2%

Leasing

54.6%

Credit Hire, long-term rent

21.7% 6.6%

Lack of data

1.3%

Loans

0.9%

Source: “Transport pod lupą” (“Zoom In On Transport”) Europejski Program Modernizacji Polskich Firm, 2013

2%

2%

4%

3%

13

6%

9%

In addition, limiting transport operations in one of the most important partners means that markets for transport services will shrink. This is undesirable effect Because of the nature of the road transport sector, it has from the perspective of the entire road transport a dense network of relationships with other Polish companies, which is dependent on sizable volumes of 0-10% 11-20% 21-40% 41-60% 61-80% 81-100% 1-5 6-10 11-15 16-20 21-30 31-50 51-100 >100 industries. Polish goods in various sectors are mainly provided services. High turnover is crucial to covering exported by road. considerable fixed costs characteristic of the sector. vehicles Significant fixed costs are first of all incurred because of The graph below illustrates the share of individual the necessity to finance and maintain fleets. According groups of cargo in international cargo carriage by road to the results of the report titled “Transport pod lupą” in Poland in 2014 We considered exports, imports and (“Zoom In On Transport”), Polish road transport cabotage cargo transport. The most cargo (in tons) companies buy vehicles for their own resources or transported internationally concerned the following through lease. The following graph shows the results of groups of goods: the investigation into sources of funding fleets by • food products transport companies conducted among 1,200 ŹRÓDŁA FINANSOWANIA TABORU FIRM TRANSPORTOWYCH • wood and wood products respondents.. • chemical and plastics products • metal and metal products. Figure 15. Sources of financing fleets by transport companies It can be inferred that the sectors mentioned above are particularly sensitive to changes that are taking place in the road transport sector. The tendency to change the geography of road transport carriages may have an influence on the directions of Polish international exchange. The fact that the number of journeys to Germany will probably be reduced (or other countries that will implement regulations similar to the MiLoG) and unprofitable companies will probably go out of business may become an obstacle for Polish importers and exporters that exchange trade with these countries.

Data come from Związek Polskiego Leasingu (Polish Leasing Association)

49

26 Where is the Single European Market heading? Impact of the MiLoG law on the Polish road market sector

The cost of freight is the most important channel because of which changes in the transport sector may affect related industries. Survey respondents believed that companies may respond to increased operational costs by raising the prices of transport services. Since there is a great deal of competition in the transport market, under current conditions there is little space for putting freight prices up. However, the prices may grow as a result of possible changes to the structure of companies operating in the road transport sector (unprofitable companies going out of business, consolidating and professionalizing entities, limiting carriage volumes to countries with minimum wages regulations). This will be brought about especially when there has been a reduction in supply of transport services in markets with minimum wages regulations in place, and demand for these services will be constant on the part of exporters and importers. Individual related sectors may be sensitive to changes that are taking place in the road transport sector for various reasons because of a number of factors. First, an important factor is the extent to which an individual sector is dependent on road transport and the sector’s flexibility to switch to alternative means of transport (e.g. rail transport, navigation). Second, if freight prices are raised, some sectors may pass on operational costs increases to the final consumer by putting up product prices. Other sectors will have to bear the costs of more expensive transport services by lowering their margins or seeking savings in their own cost structure. The manner in which an individual company will react depends on the extent to which customers of other sectors are sensitive to changes in product prices (price elasticity of supply) as well as margin levels and competitiveness in a particular sector. The lower the margin levels in a sector (which proves competitiveness is high in the market), and customers are sensitive to changes in product prices, the less chance of compensating for a growth in the prices of transport services by putting up product prices.

Social influence of the introduction of the MiLoG Possible changes in employment are the most serious social consequence of the MiLoG implementation. Greater remuneration for employees working in Germany may mean that companies that will not be able to bear increased personnel costs will carry out redundancies. Assuming that a company has a fixed budget for employee remuneration (identical before and after the MiLoG implementation), it is possible to determine the worst case scenario as for changes in employment in the wake of the MiLoG introduction. When it comes to the 1074 entities we examined, the possible number of redundancies amounts to almost 14,000 people and even 53,000 in the entire sector. The possible decrease in jobs in the sector resulting from the implementation of the MiLoG will have particularly negative consequences in regions that have high unemployment rates and little chance of changing their employment structures. There may be a rise in unemployment as it is difficult to redeploy and retrain workers that have been made redundant, especially that smaller transport companies are major local employers that take on the vast majority of economically active people in the region. If employment is reduced or companies that generate a lot of jobs in a given region go out of business, the local community may be badly affected by an increase in unemployment levels, a fall in disposable income and a standard of living.

Figure 16. International cargo carriage by road by cargo groups in Poland in 2014

7% 12%

39%

11%

12%

7%

Agricultural products Food products Wood and wood products Chemical and plastics products Goods made from other non-metallic raw materials Metal and metal products Other Source: GUS (Central Statistical Office of Poland)

As was noticed by a respondent during an in-depth interview, the job market in the transport sector belongs to drivers, yet this may change after the MiLoG implementation. Higher personnel costs may mean that the transport market will become employer centered and a result drivers will be adversely affected. It is likely that drivers who have lost their jobs or are at risk of being dismissed will agree to worse employment conditions, including illegal ones (e.g. being employed in the gray economy). The owners of transport companies may also seek savings by using unlawful practices that will worsen drivers’ social conditions, such as extending their working hours illegally.

Where is the Single European Market heading? Impact of the MiLoG law on the Polish road market sector 27

Respondents also paid attention to the fact that introducing the same minimum wage for all employees means that pay is not differentiated according to length of service, experience, and scope of duties. When the minimum wage has been introduced young drivers who have so far gained experience working with more skilled ones could lose out. Since younger employees have worked for a shorter period of time and have less experience, they are paid less, too. After the introduction of the MiLoG employers will find it less profitable to take them on, because the personnel costs that the workers will generate will rise dramatically and having less work experience, they will be less efficient. In a respondent’s view, helpers that help drivers load and unload goods may also be badly affected by the fact that the minimum wage is not differentiated. Despite the fact that helpers and drivers have different duties, they should be paid the same minimum wage as laid down in the law. As a result, employing the former will become unprofitable. On the other hand paying higher wages to drivers working in countries with a specific minimum wage may be against the principle that each employee within an organization is treated equally, considering that their employer is selective in paying different wages to people doing the same job. This may lead to pay being adjusted to the highest level, which will make the already negative consequences of the MiLoG implementation even worse when it comes to the financial standing of road transport companies.

level of consumption will rise, too, which may cause internal demand to go up. Moreover, if Polish companies reduce carriage volumes and decrease employment, Polish drivers may be taken on by foreign transport companies, especially that considering the nature of drivers’ work in international transport, moving a company’s registered office to another country does not have to entail emigration. Influence of the MiLoG implementation on state revenue Implementing the MiLoG will have a multi-faceted influence on state revenue. Increased remuneration costs will bring down gross profit and the taxable amount will be decreased by corporate income tax. The impact on personal income tax amounts is ambiguous. On the one hand, taxation of higher remuneration will generate additional budget revenue. Greater consumption expenditure on the part of the employees whose pay has risen is subject to taxation (VAT). On the other hand, employing Polish drivers by foreign employers will have a negative effect on PIT budget revenue. Considering the multi-pronged influence of the MiLoG implementation on state revenue, it is not likely to change considerably.

However, the consequences of the MiLoG introduction will be beneficial for those drivers that will manage to hold on to their jobs and conduct carriages in Germany. They will enjoy a growth in pay and, as a result, disposable income. Their standard of living will improve. The

28 Where is the Single European Market heading? Impact of the MiLoG law on the Polish road market sector

Summary

Influence of the MiLoG on

A simulation shows that 42%

In the longer perspective

In the static case scenario,

transport companies

of the 1074 studied transport

companies — especially those

which does not consider

The German MiLoG law

companies will have a negative

that may face unprofitability —

adaptive processes, almost

sets the minimum hourly

net margin following a growth

will undertake adaptive action

14,000 people may lose their

wage of 8.5 EUR, stringent

in salaries, which is likely to

that may lead to consolidating

jobs in the studied 1074

administrative requirements

put them out of business. The

micro- and small enterprises

companies in the wake of

and control measures as well as

average rise in remuneration

and professionalizing the

the MiLoG implementation.

heavy fines for failing to comply

costs will equal almost 600,000

sector. However, these

This means 53,000 dismissals

with it. The law may have

PLN per annum in the sector’s

favorable tendencies may

in the entire sector. As a

serious consequences for the

companies. The average fall of

concern a smaller transport

result, unemployment may

Polish road transport sector.

the net margin will be equal

market — minimum wages

rise locally in regions where

to 2.69 percentage points. the

laws introduced in other

transport companies create

On a macro scale, i.e. on the

average new net margin after

countries will probably mean

a considerable share of jobs.

level of individual companies,

remuneration costs have risen

fewer operations in their

Some drivers are likely to be

the consequences will be

will amount to -0.20%.

markets on the part of Polish

taken on by foreign employers.

transport companies.

different depending on the number of man-hours worked

In the short term companies

in Germany and the payment

bound by long-term contracts

Changes that are taking place

scheme for workers on business

have limited adaptive

in the road transport sector

in Germany.

capabilities. In the long run

will have a direct influence

they can raise prices for their

on related industries. The

Employee payment schemes in

contracting parties, seek new

decreased financial capacity of

the sectors are diversified. They

markets and limit carriages to

the sector’s companies brought

include basic pay and additional

Germany. Similar regulations

about by a rise in remuneration

allowances (premiums,

have been or going to be

costs may have adverse

overtime pay etc.), as well as

introduced in other countries,

consequences for the financial

dues to cover business travel

too: France, Norway, Belgium,

sector, especially the leasing

costs: business expenses and a

the Netherlands, and Italy,

sector, which finances their

lump sum for lodging. It is not

which makes it difficult

fleets. It may have a detrimental

entirely clear which of these

for companies to diversify

impact on the automotive

elements are counted towards

their operations in terms of

industry, too. A possible rise in

the minimum pay by German

geography. What is more, low

freight prices may worsen the

authorities.

margins in the sector that prove

financial standing in industries

it is highly competitive mean

that use transport services. This

In the worse case scenario an

there is little space for raising

may also cause the prices of

increase in wages will amount

freight prices.

transported goods to go up.

to 4.5 EUR, or 113% when it is assumed that only basic pay falls within the scope of the MiLoG and the average pay in the transport sector now stands at 4 EUR per hour.

Where is the Single European Market heading? Impact of the MiLoG law on the Polish road market sector 29

Detailed analysis of non-tariff limitations resulting from the MiLoG and their implications

Beside forcing employers to raise driver remuneration, the German minimum wage law introduces a number of requirements in the form of non-tariff barriers that restricts access to the domestic market. Since the law entered into force German contracting parties and authorities have undertaken activities that raise the operational costs of Polish transport companies even further. Practices used in Germany are presented in the chapter.

Analysis of MiLoG legal solutions that introduce non-tariff restrictions When speaking of the influence that the MiLoG has on the road transport sector it should be noted that the controversy surrounding the law’s compliance with EU law is part of the fundamental problem of the functioning of the Union internal market, where a balance is sought out between the effective operation of internal market freedoms and the implementation of social policy — at Union level — aimed at improving living and employment conditions, ensuring adequate social protection and dialogue between social partners50.

J. Barcz (2015) “Niemiecka ustawa o płacy minimalnej (MiLoG) a transport międzynarodowy w świetle prawa Unii Europejskiej”, commissioned by the Transport i Logistyka Polska Employer Association, pp. 10-11 51 Cf. regulation no 1072/2009 (especially recitals 2 and 4 of the Preamble) and regulation no 1073/2009 (recital 4 of the Preamble) adopted as part of the common transport policy. 52 Art. 94-96 of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union 53 J. Barcz (2015), pp. 25-26 54 Directive 96/71/EC on posting employees and regulations 1072/2009 and 1073/2009 50

The MiLoG deeply interferes with the freedom to provide services and the free movement of goods, especially when it comes to international transport operations covered by the common transport policy51. Member states must ensure that national measures that limit these freedoms (such as MiLoG) conform to EU law. As set out in the Lisbon Treaty,52 such national measures must consider the economic situation of carriers, compliance with the principles of non-discrimination and the ban — in principle — to impose protectionist economic measures in the area of transport on the part of EU member states.

In so far as MiLoG provisions interfere with the freedoms to provide services and move goods they will be regarded as the so called national measures that restrict these freedoms to the extent that goes beyond what is admissible under EU law. Under EU law such national measures: • must not entail an infringement on the non-discrimination principle, i.e. it must not discriminate on grounds of origin (nationality or the place of the undertaking’s anchorage); • must be justified by “the overriding requirements of the general interest” i.e. the imperative requirement (also the protection of the workers’ rights is deemed to be the “overriding requirements of the general interest”) • in that case (the reference to the “overriding requirements of the general interest”), national measures must fulfill the requirements of the proportionality principle (have to lead to the achievement of the objective that it serves and cannot go beyond what is necessary to achieve it); • cannot be motivated by a business objective only53. As provided for in EU law54 particularly mobile employees in the transport sector have a special status, which, justifiably, should make them exempt from the minimum wage law (on the ground that the service they provide lasts for a short period of time and has little scope in a country different from the one that has the

30 Where is the Single European Market heading? Impact of the MiLoG law on the Polish road market sector

company’s registered office and in which they are employed)55,56. In accordance with the case law of the European Court of Justice, though, “an overriding public interest”, which may justify the restrictions of internal market freedoms also refers to employees’ rights (including a guaranteed minimum wage). However, referring to such “an overriding public interest” must take account of the principle of proportionality)57. Complying with the principle with reference to particularly mobile employees (those in the transport sector), account should be taken of their relation to “costs of living” in the country where the service is provided and also with the “center of life” (i.e. the registered office in which they are employed). It is also important to find out whether establishing such national measures makes a significant contribution to safeguarding employees’ rights. The European Court of Justice held that “the requirement of an equitable remuneration in the state where the services are provided is linked with the cost of living in that Member State. If the contractor does not have such a link, then obliging it to provide the same minimum wage as in the country where the services are provided would make it impossible for it to leverage a competitive benefit from the differences existing between the respective rates of wages58”

SOCIAL DUMPING Unilateral legal solutions that protect domestic markets are part of discussion on social dumping perceived as social standards being deliberately lowered in order to obtain unfair competitive advantage. The term, however, does not have a legal definition although it is commonly used in media and politics. Social dumping as a slogan with political connotations has been described by for example the Center for Economic Policy (“Social dumping and relocation: Is there a case for imposing a social clause”) as supplying its domestic market through production located in a developing economy where labor standards do not comply with the minimum requirements adopted by the home country, therefore allowing the firm to enjoy lower production costs. In practice social dumping is now equated with remuneration differences — as for minimum wages — among EU member states. Discussion on the subject particularly refers to the so called “low-wage countries” (the way new EU member states are called) and the necessity to abolish, it is assumed, unacceptable differences in remuneration levels in the European Union. The problem of different living costs in individual member states and different statutory employee payment schemes is, however, excluded.

The proportionality principle requires that (time) scope in which a service is provided and the scope in which an employee is linked with the cost of living in the member state in which the service is provided is considered. National measures (such as the MiLoG) that interfere with the Union internal market cannot lead to a

As laid down in the 96/71/ EC Directive. J. Barcz (2015), pp. 26-27 57 Judgment by the European Court of Justice dated 15 March 2001 regarding Mazzoleni Case C-165/98. 58 Judgment by the European Court of Justice dated 18 September 2014 regarding C-549/12 Bundesdruckerei. 59 Judgment by the European Court of Justice dated 15 March 2001 regarding Mazzoleni Case C-165/98. 55 56

Where is the Single European Market heading? Impact of the MiLoG law on the Polish road market sector 31

situation where the fact of benefiting from the freedoms becomes illusory for the undertaking and less attractive59. Regardless of that national measures (such as the MiLoG) will be contrary to EU law if they have a dominant economic position and their consequences are protectionist in nature. The provisions of MiLoG that are currently in force unambiguously make it difficult for transport undertakings to benefit from freedoms on the internal market and trigger far-reaching protectionist consequences resulting in creating barriers to the entry to the German market. Administrative requirements and control measures The scope of administrative requirements and control measures specified in MiLoG (cf. chapter 2.1 of this report) is significantly contrary to EU law. It violates the proportionality principle because it discourages (and often even prevents) transport undertakings from other Member States from using the freedoms of the European internal market – the freedom of providing services and the free movement of goods60. Fines The sanctions (fines) provided under the MiLoG (cf. chapter 2.1 of this report) are drastically high and violate the proportionality principle: first, the fines are significantly higher than relevant fines provided for similar violations under German national law. Second, the use of such drastic fines may lead to the bankruptcy of transport undertakings based in other Member States (also in Poland), in particular small and medium enterprises. Therefore, we may conclude that the fines established under MiLoG violate the proportionality principle, discourage companies from using the freedoms of internal market and most of all are economically protectionist61.

J. Barcz (2015), pp. 32-33 J. Barcz (2015), pp. 33-35 J. Barcz, pp. 14-15

60 61 62

Legal uncertainty The practice of the first months when the MiLoG was applied indicates that the lack of harmonization of the concepts and the components of a minimum wage in a country that requires a specific minimum wage (Germany) with the law of the State where a worker who performs work in Germany is employed (e.g. Poland), leads to the lack of

certainty in the law (with respect to undertakings that employ the workers) and as a result, to uncertainty in trading, which constitutes a material barrier to the use of the EU internal market freedoms62. Analysis of examples of non-tariff barriers presented by road transport companies The biggest problem of road transport companies with reference to the MiLoG is that they have no access to reliable information and are thus faced with the lack of certainty in the law. The problem concerns the following: • what elements of remuneration are counted towards the minimum wage (whether premiums, lump sums for lodging and business expenses can make up the minimum wage beside basic pay); • how to calculate working time and specific jobs carried out by the worker (a driver moving goods to or from Germany performs work when he or she drives, waits for the goods to be loaded or unloaded, and takes a break); • in which situations drivers performing work in Germany are posted to work in that country (which would determine whether they are covered by the MiLoG or not). Entrepreneurs are left with the feeling of uncertainty and expectation due to the lack of clear explanations and interpretations as far as the act is concerned. The owners of companies that we conducted telephone interviews with mentioned investments had been stopped and no strategic decisions were taken. As a Entrepreneur A We are not changing our payment scheme because we do not know yet how to. Entrepreneur B So far we haven’t had to bear any costs, we notified the MiLoG but we do not apply it yet because we do not know how. We are preparing for possible litigations started by the German side. Entrepreneur C Polish transport companies have stopped investment as a result of the MiLoG. We are worried about the future. If the sector is not developing, it is already losing.

32 Where is the Single European Market heading? Impact of the MiLoG law on the Polish road market sector

result, the sector is beginning to lose against foreign competition. Those that took part in our interviews said they signed commitments to comply with the MiLoG with their contracting parties, and they were preparing themselves for possible litigations disputes. As the MiLoG was implemented contracting parties started providing transport companies with annexes to contracts or clauses in newly concluded ones according to which carriers should take full responsibility for complying with MiLoG and possible litigations. Such action on the part of German ordering parties stems from the fact that they are also responsible for their contracting parties adhering to MiLoG provisions. The annexes and clauses mentioned above are an example of how responsibility for compliance with the MiLoG is passed on to Polish contracting parties and a way of German entrepreneurs to ensure they are protected against possible derogation from the act requirements on the part of contractors. Since it is impossible to verify effectively whether a transport company conforms to the MiLoG, ordering parties are afraid of cooperating with Central and Eastern European companies, which are treated as high-risks partners. Some ordering parties

seek other solutions, e.g. insurance products dedicated to limiting MiLoG-related risks. Companies responded differently: • Part of the respondents pointed out that in order to maintain their market position they signed all annexes they had been sent by their contracting parties. This was most frequently the case of companies operating mainly in the German market (those that conducted as much as 90% of their operations in that country). Some respondents that have signed all new annexes assume that this will not change their situation because they already pay their drivers the wage as set out in the MiLoG. • Part of representatives of transport companies did not sign all the annexes they had been sent after they analyzed the consequences of accepting them. Individual companies accepted new agreements with their major contracting parties. Where annexes concerning the MiLoG were not signed, there was a decrease in the number of carriages for a given contracting party or cooperation was terminated. • Some companies argued their operations were not covered by the MiLoG and decided to dismiss the

Where is the Single European Market heading? Impact of the MiLoG law on the Polish road market sector 33

Entrepreneur A We received the following clauses to sign: “Exemption declaration DECLARATION We hereby assure (NAME OF CLIENT) and all associated companies of (NAME OF CLIENT), to whom we provide transport services (hereinafter referred to as the Ordering Party) that we will comply with all obligations ensuing from the minimum wages act in all companies we will be assigned while carrying out orders of the Ordering Party. This includes, but is not limited to: – pursuant to Para. 20 MiLoG paying our workers employed in the country at least the minimum wage as laid down in Para. 1 sec.. 2 MiLoG not later than the date as set out in Para. 2 sec. 1 MiLoG; – pursuant to Para. 17 MiLoG determining the beginning, end, and length of daily working time for workers that we have been assigned not later than the seventh day following the date on which work was commenced and storing all the relevant records for at least two years following the date specified as the start for record keeping, and – pursuant to Para. 16 MiLoG submitting a written statement in German to a relevant customs office as an employer with the registered office outside of Germany.

Entrepreneur B Personally, I remember our contract with [NAME OF COMPANY] in which they proposed the following clauses (obliging us and our subcontractors to comply with the MiLoG). We did not accept them. 1. The contractor is obliged to comply with the minimum wage act (Gesetz zur Regelungeinesallgemeinen Mindestlohns, MiLoG). The contractor shall pay the minimum wages at a regular basis and on time. If the contractor hires subcontractors to meet his contractual obligations, he shall oblige them to comply with the minimum wage act. 2. At the request of X the contractor shall prove that the aforementioned obligations, i.e. arising from the act, are met and submit relevant documentation within 15 working days. 3. The contractor shall release X on first demand from any claims, penalties, fines and costs imposed on X pursuant to Para. 13 21 of the minimum wage act. 4. Should the contractor violate the obligations arising from the minimum wage act, X may terminate the contract.

We also assure the Ordering Party that in principle we will provide the services you have ordered on our own, and any subcontractors will be taken on after the Ordering Party has been notified of this. As for subcontractors we shall: – employ and/or permit employing only those subcontractors that pay their workers the minimum wage on time pursuant to Para. 20 of the MiLoG.”

34 Where is the Single European Market heading? Impact of the MiLoG law on the Polish road market sector

Entrepreneur C After 1 January 2015 we received several dozen letters and mails from German forwarding and manufacturing/trade companies urging us to sign a statement that we would comply with and take over responsibility for MiLoG provisions or our agreements would be terminated, We’ve had quite a number of German forwarding companies refusing to settle our invoices for transport services if we don’t sign a statement that we would comply with/take over responsibility for MiLoG provisions. Entrepreneur D 100% of long-term tender agreements (over six months) that we received from German forwarding and manufacturing/trade companies after 1 January 2015 had statements urging us to comply with/take over responsibility for MiLoG provisions. Entrepreneur E In our client statement (1-2) urges us to comply with the MiLoG, (3) obliges us to make sure our subcontractors adhere to the MiLoG, and (4) says we shall provide the client with relevant documentation on remuneration in original and on demand. (5) gives the other party the right to terminate their agreements with us without giving us notice when we have not complied with any of the above. Entrepreneur F Some companies use the opportunity and include their own fines, e.g. TSE wants to impose a fine of 5,000 EUR for each case of non-compliance with the MiLoG ((5) on the last page).

Entrepreneur G Attached is an example of an order from Y which says that forwarding services are not going to be paid for unless we have signed a statement concerning the MiLoG. Some companies demand we sign statements concerning transit despite the fact this part of the act is suspended. Ladies and Gentlemen, Effective as of 16 August 2014 the German minimum wage law will come into force on 1 January 2015. Road transport companies that subcontract their work are responsible for ensuring that their contractors pay their personnel the hourly wage of 8.5 EUR as set out in the MiLoG if their transport activities are conducted in the territory of Germany. As the new law came into force, we kindly ask you to sign the attached document. Confirming the contract is absolutely necessary in order to ensure further cooperation. Entrepreneur H So far we have had a couple of companies that we have concluded contracts with saying that signing these was dependent on us willing to comply with the MiLoG. Entrepreneur I Contracts we sign are accompanied by statements that our company conforms with MiLoG requirements. If our client is fined in connection with the MiLoG, we pay the fine (another statement). This stems from the fact that we have obliged ourselves to comply with the law and we have made our subcontractors do the same, that is customers in the territory of Germany, direct producers and forwarding companies that subcontract transport services to our company. From the German biggest companies to small manufacturing/trade companies. We have had two cases of customers withdrawing from negotiations because of the MiLoG (we did not agree to sign related documents).

Where is the Single European Market heading? Impact of the MiLoG law on the Polish road market sector 35

annexes. For them the German market was one of the many they operated in internationally. Apart from general consequences mentioned above, the implementation of the MiLoG will have detailed results in the form of new barriers to providing transport services in the common market. Costs of translating documents In the wake of the MiLoG Polish companies have been made to translate corporate documents (National Court Register and personnel documentation). MiLoG related annexes sent by contracting parties have also had to be translated. Some companies have decided to expand their IT systems to generate German-language documents automatically, which has increased their operational costs.

Entrepreneur A We have already incurred costs of preparing preliminary documentation: translating our employment agreements and National Court Register documentation. Entrepreneur B So far I have only incurred costs of: • translating documents: 1900.35 PLN, • preparing a German pay roll version: 1000 PLN. • preparing and translating contracts — 620 PLN. For the time being we are not modifying our systems, but this cost is inevitable. Entrepreneur C We’ve adapted our system to generate Germanlanguage documents. The system costs about 2000-3000 PLN gross a month Entrepreneur D The MiLoG has made us: • invest resources into translating all basic HR documents and corporate regulations and policies into German, • translate orders and additional information — about 30 PLN per page. So far not more than 500 PLN net.

Costs of changes to HR systems In the wake of the MiLoG implementation Polish companies are starting to introduce changes to HR systems (changes in both personnel and software). The system needs to be adapted to calculating different wages of one driver depending on the territory he or she works in.

36 Where is the Single European Market heading? Impact of the MiLoG law on the Polish road market sector

Entrepreneur A In addition of course [we bear] the costs of adapting the system to calculate the number of hours our drivers spend in Germany.

Entrepreneur A The MiLoG has made us: • adapt our HR systems to calculate new remuneration elements, • use new personnel resources to control, register, and verify the working time of drivers in the territory of Germany.

Entrepreneur B Apart from that we will have to pay for modifying our calculation system which will enable us to register the amount of time spent in Germany via GPScode. The cost of this modification is estimated at over 10,000 EUR. Unfortunately, we do not have our confirmation document yet.

Entrepreneur B In order to calculate the number of hours worked in the territory of Germany, we will have to employ two new people full-time.

Entrepreneur C Modifying, updating and implementing systems — about 5,000 PLN net. Entrepreneur D Implementing transport management systems in order to calculate the exact amount of time our drivers spend in Germany — approx. 2 million PLN.

Costs of changes to the manner hours are calculated In connection with the MiLoG companies have also been forced to introduce changes to the systems that calculate the number of hours the drivers spend in the territory of Germany. It is essential to use GPS systems to determine exactly how many hours a driver and his or her vehicle have spent in Germany.

Where is the Single European Market heading? Impact of the MiLoG law on the Polish road market sector 37

During interviews we conducted Polish entrepreneurs mentioned other barriers created by the MiLoG: • so far in the vast majority of Polish companies Germany has not conducted yet any MiLoG related control; • there are no known cases of activities on the part of the so called parking law firms that specialize in representing drivers during litigations with their employers;

• companies know cases of trade union undertaking action with regard to the so called social dumping (alleged decreasing of costs), but these come from the Netherlands and Belgium, rather than Germany; • one company had decided to start cooperation with a law firm in Germany to represent it during possible MiLoG related disputes.

38 Where is the Single European Market heading? Impact of the MiLoG law on the Polish road market sector

Summary

Non-tariff barriers ensuing

The proportionality principle in

Entrepreneurs themselves pay

from the MiLoG

particular orders one to take

attention to the following

Considerations on the German

into account the duration of

MiLoG related non-tariff

law are part of wider discussion

the service delivery in a given

barriers based on their

on the functioning on the

state (i.e. in Germany) and the

experience in the German

internal market and its

“connection” of the worker

market:

freedoms, as well as social

who provides the service with

• lack of access to sufficient

policy that aims at improving

the costs of living in that

information as to whether

living conditions, social

Member State (i.e. where the

various parts of a salary are

protection and social dialogue.

service is provided) and in the

covered by the MiLoG, • contracting parties providing

country of origin.

them with annexes to

Under EU law limitations to the free movement of goods and

Administrative requirements,

contracts or including clauses

services must not violate the

control measures and fines for

in newly concluded ones

non-discrimination principle on

failing to comply with the

according to which carriers

grounds of origin. Even

MiLoG may violate the free

should take full responsibility

interventions that aim at

movement of goods and

for complying with MiLoG

protecting the “justified

services principle mainly

requirements of the general

because of their disproportio-

interest” e.g. safeguarding of

nality to the objectives set.

employees’ rights, must fulfill

Since the regulations are

the requirements of the

imprecise (e.g. with regard to

proportionality principle (have

what remuneration elements

to lead to the achievement of

are covered by the MiLoG),

manner in which hours are

the objective that it serves and

they lead to the lack of

calculated.

cannot go beyond what is

certainty in the law. All these

necessary to achieve it).

factors may lead to foreign,

and possible litigations, • costs of translating documents, • costs of changes to HR systems, • costs of changes to the

also Polish, undertakings to be marketed off from Germany.

Where is theImplementation Single European of Market the German heading? minimum Impact wage of the law MiLoG (MiLoG)law andonthe thePolish Polishmarket road market - assessment sector 39

The MiLoG as an element that restricts free trade in the EU and its economic implications

Previous chapters concern the implementation of the minimum hourly wage and other administrative barriers in Germany as a result of the MiLoG introduction as well as its implications for the Polish transport sector, economy and labor market. Nevertheless, a different question may be asked whether such sanctions are opportune from the perspective of Germany, other countries and the entire European Union. For this reason the German act should be analyzed with respect to tendencies to liberate trade or introduce protectionism as presented in economic and historical theories in the last hundred years. Justification for free trade: Ricardo and Heckscher & Ohlin The German MiLoG act introduces a number of barriers to free movement of goods and services. Abolishing such barriers is well supported in the theory of international economic relations and economic analysis of liberalization of trade. In economists’ view fairer international trade and exchange of services (including transport services discussed in this report) is beneficial to either party, even when there are considerable differences between the market players. David Ricardo, a British classical economist, was the first to describe a model that justified the advantages of free trade among countries as early as in 1817. So far the model has not been contested and it is still widely used in modern economics.63 Ricardo used a simplified example in which two countries, England and Portugal, produce two goods of the same quality — wine and cloth — using labor only (labor being the only production factor). In spite of the fact that the Portuguese could produce both cloth and wine with less amount of labor, both countries can still benefit from trade with each other because it is a comparative advantage that plays the most important role rather than an absolute one.

P. Krugman, M. Obsfeld (2007), Ekonomia międzynarodowa. Teoria i polityka, Vol. 1, Warszawa, pp. 41-74 64 D. Ricardo(1817), On the Principles of Political Economy and Taxation, London, pp. 146-185 65 P. Krugman, M. Obstfeld, Op. cit., p. 75-111 66 The Journal of Economic History, Vol. 18, Cambridge, March 1958, pp. 116-117 63

The model shows that in the presence of free trade if two countries specialize in producing a good for which they have a comparative advantage, they will manufacture more of both products. In general, the fact that countries specialize in the production of goods and these are exchanged is beneficial to everyone, because this means a rise in global production. From the perspective of an individual country, in turn, its specialization brings it benefits if it produces goods for which it has a comparative advantage in production unit costs64. According to another classical economic theory interna-

tional trade is mainly driven by the differences in resources among countries. It was developed by two Swedish economists, Eli Heckscher and Bertil Ohlin, from whom the Heckscher-Ohlin theory takes its name. Some countries have relatively more capital, others more labor and yet others — raw materials and advanced technologies. According to the theory countries manufacture relatively more goods and services that require factors of production that are abundant locally. As a result, such goods are also exported by these countries, too. International trade influences income distribution: the owners of factors that there are relatively more of in a country benefit from trade, and the owners of factors that there are relatively fewer of lose out. However, global prosperity is increasing and if the winners were able to compensate for the losses of others, then everyone would be better off. Free trade also causes global labor costs and capital to even out65. Development through trade and convergence In the 1950s Frederic Benham, an English economist, formulated the development through trade theory after he had been observing the development of the South and East Asia for many years. In his view a policy of overcoming relative poverty requires that poorer countries participate in the global economy and there is movement of production factors such as labor, capital, and raw materials. According to the theory trade should benefit both wealthy counties that export highly processed goods and poorer states that sell raw materials and unprocessed goods abroad. The latter should attract foreign capital and take out international loans to finance their production. Benham stressed the comparative advantage of poorer countries, e.g. raw material extraction and agriculture, which should lead to a harmonized increase in efficiency and income.66

40 Where is the Single European Market heading? Impact of the MiLoG law on the Polish road market sector

35% 18,2%

19,0%

Other operational costs

30%

8,0%

8,1%

Remuneration

25%

39,8%

39,7%

External services

20% 15%

Another concept derived from the theory of compara-10% of 48 American states68. Among others, Jeffrey Sachs tive costs is convergence theory. The theory implies that and Andrew Warner offered empirical proofs of the idea 29,7% 28,6% Energy 5% poorer regions or countries that develop faster than of convergence and dependence of growth on the Depreciation 4,5%regions and 4,3%relatively more wealthy countries. According opening of economy69. 0% 2012 2013 2010 2011 2012 2013 to its strongest version — also known as the notion of Dynamics sales liberalization Benefits ofoftrade absolute convergence — as a result of trade exchange Net margin In economists’ view trade liberalization has a number of countries should attain the same level of income per benefits which enable better use of resources. Opening capita in the longer perspective. of the economy enables achieving the following effects: For convergence to appear, however, participation in • International labor (specialization) distribution. A trade exchange will not suffice. More poorly developed given country produces only part of goods it needs, countries must have proper amount of capital to acceleyet in amounts that will make it possible to satisfy rate growth67. Poorer countries can develop faster than wealthy ones, e.g. based on a law of diminishing returns internal and international demand. At the same time it — more capital outlays invested in a poorer country gives up producing goods that other countries speciawhere there is little of it will produce far greater benefits lize in. A specialization that ensures a growth in than the same amount of capital invested in a wealthy management efficiency cannot emerge without a free country. In addition, poorly developed countries can use flow of goods. cheaply technologies that have been developed and proven useful in developed countries. • Possibility to achieve economies of scale. Economies of scale may lead to a unit cost decreasing The notion of absolute convergence was formulated by because fixed costs are divided among a larger Robert J. Barro based on research into the development number of products. Countries with big internal

Figure 17. Gap in the level of wealth in countries in the absence of convergence

Figure 18. ???

Number of products

Autarky

Number of products

Autarky

Exchange of goods

Capital flow

Przepływ kapitałów The theory first developed by Dutch economist Jan Tinbergen is based on Robert Solow’s model of growth, in which the value of production is a function of outlays: capital and labor. 68 Barro, R., Sala-I-Martin, X. (1992), Convergence, Journal of Political Economy. pp. 223-251 69 J. Sachs, A. Warner (1995), Economic Reform and the Process of Global Integration, in Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Vol 1. According to their calculations, open developing economies 4.49% per annum between 1970 and 1989, whereas closed developing economies registered a growth of 0.69%. For developed economies the figures amounted to 2.29% for open and 0.74% for closed, respectively. 67

Wealthy country

Wealthy country

Poor country

Poor country Lasting gap in wealth levels among countries

Source: Own elaboration

Decreasing gap in wealth levels among countries Time

Source: Own elaboration

Time

Where is the Single European Market heading? Impact of the MiLoG law on the Polish road market sector 41

markets can achieve such benefits without international exchange, yet in smaller ones it is international trade that makes it possible to obtain production volumes that go far beyond what their markets can absorb. • Improving operational efficiency of domestic companies. Foreign competition encourages producers to decrease manufacturing costs and raising product quality. In order for the mechanism to work, imported goods must have similar possibilities of reaching the market, so it is necessary to liberate trade exchange. In addition, international trade influences management efficiency also through imports of technology. • Increase in investment, also foreign. Abolishing barriers contributes to a rise in turnover in international exchange. Opening borders to a free flow of production factors, including capital, makes it possible to make foreign investments in places which are favorable for various reasons at a given moment, e.g. they have access to cheap raw materials or cheap human resources with necessary qualifications.

P. Krugman, M. Obstfeld, Op. cit., pp. 314-320 To take an example, sugar producers can advocate for introducing import quotas. They are a small well-organized group that knows how much there is to gain after such limits have been introduced. On the other hand, sugar manufacturers are numerous and they do not perceive themselves as a group of interests. Therefore they are not capable of defending themselves against such action. 72 P. Krugman, M. Obstfeld, Op. cit., pp. 92, 100-101, 320-326 70 71

impossible for labor force to move, limiting free trade in the industry, e.g. imposing excise duties, may bring down the number of unemployed people. It needs to be borne in mind, however, that free trade is not the primary reason for a bad situation in the labor market. Thus a better solution for the country would be to improve conditions in its own labor market rather than violating free trade principles70. Free trade also has an effect on income distribution inside a country. If tariff barriers are reduced and overall prosperity rises some groups may gain disproportionately more. Therefore liberating or restricting trade conditions is always sensitive in political terms. Trade policies may be particularly influenced by small and concentrated groups of interest (e.g. farmers71, clothes manufacturers)72.

On the other hand, there are certain economic reasons that justify some limitations to free trade. According to the most important one, countries can push down the prices of imported goods by imposing small excise duties. They may also introduce an export tax that raise the prices of goods sold abroad to foreigners. Such a country, though, must be big enough to influence the prices of goods and services on international markets. This activity is called improvement of terms of trade, but it needs to be stressed that they may prove to be a double-edged sword. When they are applied, they may lead to other countries taking retaliatory action by introducing favorable excise duties and taxes. As a result, free trade will be deformed and at the end of the day the costs of protectionist measures may prove higher than advantages. Another argument may be based on the concept of domestic market failure: if a domestic market, e.g. a labor market, does not function properly, abandoning free trade may reduce the consequences of the failure. If a country suffers from for instance high unemployment in the textile market and, to make matters worse, had an unwieldy, inflexible labor market that makes it

42 Where is the Single European Market heading? Impact of the MiLoG law on the Polish road market sector

Liberalization of global trade: The Uruguay Round and creation of WTO Building on economic assumptions that trade liberalization is conducive to raising overall prosperity for the last hundred of years we have witnessed a gradual tendency to reduce global excise duties and trade barriers. Coordinated efforts to decrease excise duties started in the 1930s as a response to increased protectionist tendencies in various countries after the Great Crisis. The first consisted in bilateral talks between countries to reduce tariffs they used. Shortly after the end of World War 2 multilateral negotiations started as part of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT). Since 1947 there have been eight rounds of GATT negotiations. During the last one, the Uruguay Round, in 1995 the World Trade Organization was established, which now has 160 members. GATT and subsequently WTO are based on four basic principles: • non-discrimination and equal treatment — parties give one another an unconditional clause of most-favored-nation (MFN) treatment, • mutuality, or equality of benefits and concessions, • the possibility to interfere in trade using excise duties only, rather than restricting quantities, • national treatment — imported and locally-produced goods should be treated equally. The Uruguay Round contributed to another decrease of excise duties all over the world, a partial liberalization of trade in agricultural and textile goods and abolition of barriers in access to government contracts and use of intellectual property rights. The most significant achievement, however, is that a clear procedure of resolving disputes was introduced73. Countries that believe that another state has violated free trade principles may initiate a WTO dispute. A team of WTO experts resolve the case in a year at the most (15 months in the case of an appeal). If the WTO confirms the complaining country is right, and the country violating principles does

not change their actions, the organization may introduce specific retaliatory actions (e.g. higher excise duties). In addition, GATT principles applied to goods trade only, and WTO rules are also applicable to providing services, such as insurance, trade, and banking (the General Agreement on Trade in Services, GATS). The extent to which trade in services is liberated as a result WTO activities is still much lower than it is the case for goods, even though, as economists claim, it would bring more benefits, and what is more, they would be relatively higher for developing countries74. In the last decade advancement in multilateral trade talks has come to a halt and the Doha round of talks has not been completed yet due to opinion differences among developing and developed countries. According to a report from the European Commission Union trade partners have introduced 170 protectionist mechanisms since the middle of 201375. Main players such as the European Union, the United States, and Japan liberate trade through bilateral agreements, e.g. the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership that is now being negotiated. Abolishing or reducing non-tariff barriers play the biggest role in the negotiations.

P. Krugman, M. Obstfeld, Op. cit., pp. 330-354 Andżelika Kuźniar (2004), Proces liberalizacji międzynarodowego handlu usługami w ramach WTO oraz jego skutki, Zeszyty Naukowe SGH, No 15, pp. 134-159 75 European Commission Trade and Investment Barriers Report 2015, Brussels, 17.3.2015, COM(2015) 127 final 73 74

Where is the Single European Market heading? Impact of the MiLoG law on the Polish road market sector 43

European internal market The economic integration of the continent has been taken much further in the European Communities, and then the European Union. The Union is based on the internal market, earlier known as the Common Market. According to the Lisbon Treaty, “the internal market comprises an area without internal frontiers in which the free movement of goods, persons, services and capital is ensured”76. There are four freedoms within the Union internal market: • The free movement of goods, based on a customs union within the Union that ensures circulation of goods without customs duties and establishes a common external tariff on goods from third countries. The freedom bans qualitative restrictions in trade, as well as discriminatory and protectionist taxes. • The free movement of people covers two separate areas: freedom of movement for workers (each EU citizen is entitled to seek employment in another member state) and freedom of establishment (EU citizens and companies can conduct business activity in another member state). EU citizens and companies working and operating in one member state should be treated equally to the citizens and companies in that state. The freedom is reinforced by the abolition of border control at internal borders (the so called Schengen group).

Art. 26 sec. 2 of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union 77 Directive 2006/123/EC is key to this freedom. 78 It falls within the scope of regulation no 883/2004. 79 It mainly falls within the scope of Directive 2005/36. 80 J. Barcz, M. Górka, A. Wyrozumska (2012), Instytucje i prawo Unii Europejskiej, Warszawa, pp. 61-68 81 N. Campos, F. Coricelli, L. Moretti (2014), Economic Growth and Political Integration: Synthetic Counterfactuals Evidence from Europe, after: Breugel Working Paper 2015/1 82 M. Mariniello, A. Sapir, A. Terzi, The long road towards the European single market, in: Breugel Working Paper 2015/1 76

• The freedom to provide services, which is of particular importance to this report. The right concerns transborder economic activity that is temporary and not subject to other freedoms. It applies in the following situation: a service provider (a natural person) crosses a border (active freedom), a recipient of services crosses a border (passive freedom), a service crosses a border (correspondence services), and providing services in an EU member state that neither a service provider nor a recipient of services is a citizen of77. • The free movement of capital enables capital to be moved to and invested in another EU member state. This is the youngest of all Union freedoms and was fully implemented in 1994.

The so called horizontal rules were necessary for the freedoms to be enjoyed fully: coordination of social security systems78 and recognition of professional qualifications in a member state other than that in which they were obtained79. The common market also comprises common policies: trade, agricultural, and transport and common competition rules aimed at companies and member states80. The macroeconomic results of the common market are quite difficult to calculate. According to Nauro Campos, an economist at Brunel University in London, the average GDP level per capita would have been 12% lower, had it not been for the European integration81. Now the completion of the internal market is perceived as a cure for the continent’s ills in the European Union: it should raise prosperity, stimulate economic growth and increase Europe’s competitiveness in an increasingly demanding global market. But the work is very far from complete for instance in capital markets, digital economies and energy markets. Transborder trade in EU member states did go up from 12% of their GDPs in 1992 to 22% in 2012, but the figures are still insignificant compared to for example the USA. According to a recent report from the Breugel Institute82 the EU still has too many barriers that make it impossible to gain benefits associated with full integration of markets. Union directives are only partly or wrongly implemented into national legal systems and recognition of mutual standards for trade and services is still in a tailspin. Barriers are particularly high in public procurement and the service sector, which accounts for only 20% of internal trade, yet it represents 70% of national economies and creates 90% of new jobs. There are also obstacles to free movement of people — only 3% of Union citizens work in another EU member state. The Juncker Commission in office since last year concentrates on individual priorities, such as creating a capital market union, building common energy and digital service markets. In line with the Commission’s work plan European Commissioner for Internal Market Elżbieta Bieńkowska is scheduled to reveal the internal market strategy for goods and services on 21 October. The document is designed to provide for deepening integration, improving the principle of mutual recognition in areas with the biggest economic potential, such as

44 Where is the Single European Market heading? Impact of the MiLoG law on the Polish road market sector

business services, construction, retail trade, regulated professions, advanced production, and combining industry and services.83

fence along its external border and other countries, including Germany, have returned to one-sided border controls at internal frontiers.

Brussels has already announced detailed plans concerning the construction of the digital service market which is meant to provide all EU citizens with equal access to content, services and goods offered via the Internet. Other plans cover for instance a package of reforms to increase mobility in the labor market and create a union of capital markets. Tendency to move away from the idea of deepening free trade At the same time for the last decade the European Union has been increasingly faced with processes that tend to inhibit trade from being liberated further. These have been mainly caused by: • Fears on the part of the fifteen old EU member states concerning the 2004 enlargement. According to expectations the accession of ten new countries with a much lower level of income per capita was to have led to economic problems. There was a particular concern about the so called social dumping, or selling goods and services for lower prices, and the migration of workers that would allegedly lead to increased unemployment in Western countries. The so called “Polish plumber” was the symbol of these concerns. • Financial and fiscal crisis. Although Europe seems to have weathered the worst of the storm, the continent’s countries have not managed to return to sustainable growth since 2009. Greece is still confronting a crisis, it has taken a heavy toll on Portugal, Ireland, and Spain and Italy was also hit, yet to a lesser extent. The most substantial effect of the crisis was a jump in unemployment rates which has led to a rise in protectionist sentiments. A crisis of confidence in markets, entrepreneurs, and democratic institutions both at national and EU levels has intensified. • Migration crisis. An influx of refugees arriving in Europe has started to endanger border-free travel ensured by the Schengen Agreement. Coordinated efforts to respond to the crisis have not proven successful and individual capitals have started to take matters into their own hands. Hungary has put up a

The result of the trend is a crisis of confidence in European integration and a rise in popularity of populist extremist political factions, such as the British UKIP, the French National Front, the Spanish Podemos and the Greek Syriza. On the other hand, Germany, the Netherlands, and also Slovakia and Finland have increasingly begun to ask questions that undermine the sense of European solidarity towards Greece and other countries that are faced with crisis. Meanwhile traditional mainstream parties are beginning to apply populist and anti-liberal rhetoric to maintain popularity. An example is the anti-immigration sentiments voiced by the British Tories under David Cameron to target UKIP voters in this year’s election. Populist slogans, in turn, are reflected in policies of European countries. For these reasons recent years have seen a worrying trend to shift away from deepening free trade within the European Union. This is apparent in putting up non-tariff barriers in trade among countries and decelerating the rate of bringing them down. An example is the 2004-2006 discussions on the freedom to provide services. In January 2014 European Commissioner for Internal Market Frits Bolkestein took the initiative of proposing the Services Directive prescribing the complete abolition of barriers to exchange of services in the internal market. The implementation of the Directive was to produce 600,000 jobs and raise consumption by 37 billion EUR. It was supposed to be based on the country of origin principle that would ensure providing services in the entire European Union under the law of countries of service providers. The Directive raised considerable criticism especially in France, Germany, and Belgium as well as on the part of trade unions. It was finally adopted by the European Parliament in February 2006, but it was significantly limited: the country of origin principle was replaced with the freedom to provide services which subjects services provision to the law of the destination country84. In addition, it excludes, among others, health, social, financial, transport, port and audiovisual services as well

http://ec.europa.eu/atwork/ pdf/ cwp_2015_withdrawals_ en.pdf 84 M.Stürner (2010), Zasięg swobody świadczenia usług i jej ograniczenia delivered at the conference Usługi w polsko-niemieckim obszarze gospodarczym bez barier – skutki dla przedsiębiorców i konsumentów 27 October 2010 in Frankfurt am Oder. 83

Where is the Single European Market heading? Impact of the MiLoG law on the Polish road market sector 45

as any services related to public good85. Discussions on the so called social dumping that have been going on since that time restrict the possibility of doing away with barriers in the services market. The European Commission deals with abolishing and reducing the barriers. For example, in June 2015 the Commissioner for Internal Market officially warned Germany with reference to minimum wages for engineers, architects, and tax counselors. A similar warning was issued for Poland, Austria, and Spain86. In subsequent years most disputes in Western Europe concerned a variety of limitations to the free flow of people. The UK was the most fierce critic: on 29 December 2014 Prime Minister David Cameron announced his plan to limit an influx of foreign migrants going to the country, including citizens of other EU member states. The plan provides for restricting the right to claim benefits for job seekers from outside of the United Kingdom and deporting those who have not found employment after six months87. In the view of Home Secretary Teresa May the UK should only accept migrants who have already found employment88.

attention to such obstacles in food exports in other EU member states. They are the most common in the Czech Republic, Germany and the UK. The barriers that are most frequently cited in 2015 are: more frequent sanitary controls, negative press campaigns, the necessity to store transaction-related documents for a number of years, the necessity to obtain additional certificates, the necessity to place specific text information on product packaging, and the necessity to provide consumers with information which part of a given product has been manufactured in a particular country89. Against this background the MiLoG is in fact a form of protecting the German market although the law and similar regulations are justified on the grounds they combat social dumping. Especially in the case of a favorable interpretation of the regulation, which includes all remuneration elements as the basis for MiLoG fulfillment (which may be justified because of the logic of using business expenses and lump sums in Polish law), it is the formal and legal requirements that impose additional obligations on entrepreneurs in the sector that come to the fore.

Protectionist tendencies can also be observed for the oldest and seemingly least controversial freedom, i.e. the free movement of goods. There are also a variety of non-tariff barriers here. Polish producers still pay

J. Petsch (2006), Dyrektywa usługowa, w: Analizy natolińskie 9 (13). 86 A. Barker, Former Polish deputy PM to warn Germany over EU single market, Financial Times, 17 June 2015 http://www.ft.com/intl/ cms/s/0/6d900b86-14e3-11e5-9509-00144feabdc0. html#axzz3ktLb9r2W 87 P. Arak, Cameron: Jak chce ograniczyć imigrację, Polityka Insight, 1 December 2014 88 Theresa May: Free movement only for ‘those with jobs’, http://www.bbc. com/news/uk-34100643, 30 August 2015 89 Bariery pozataryfowe dla polskich eksporterów żywności w UE (2015), report from PwC, pp. 11-16 85

46 Where is the Single European Market heading? Impact of the MiLoG law on the Polish road market sector

Summary

The MiLoG as an element of

Free trade has an effect on

Now the completion of the

As a result of all those fears

limiting free trade

income distribution inside a

internal market is perceived as

there has been increased

Economists say that free trade

country. Even if tariff barriers

a cure for the continent’s ills in

support for populist political

contributes to a rise in overall

are reduced and overall

the Union: it should raise

factions in Europe. In addition,

prosperity. David Ricardo, a

prosperity rises some groups

prosperity, stimulate economic

populist slogans are promoted

British classical economist, was

may gain and others may lose

growth and increase Europe’s

by mainstream political parties

the first to describe a model

out.. Therefore liberating or

competitiveness in an incre-

that are fighting for power. An

that justified the advantages of

restricting trade conditions is

asingly demanding global

example is the anti-immigration

free trade among countries as

always sensitive in political

market. But the work is very far

rhetoric of the British

early as in the nineteenth

terms. Nevertheless, the last

from complete for instance in

Conservative Party. For a

century. So far the model has

hundred of years have

capital markets, digital

decade all these tendencies

not been contested and it is still

witnessed a gradual tendency

economies and energy markets.

have produced specific

widely used in modern

to reduce excise duties and

economics.

other trade barriers in the

At the same time for the last

so called Polish plumber diluted

world, which has given rise to

decade the European Union has

the Services Directive. Recently,

the World Trade Organization.

been increasingly faced with

the British government has

processes that tend to inhibit

proposed limitations to free

According to economists

solutions. In 2006 fears of the

liberating trade has a number of advantages:

The economic integration

trade from being liberated

movement of people. Recent

• it enables new streams of

within the European Union has

further. The main causes are

examples of this trend is the

also progressed, which is based

the economic and migration

MiLoG and similar regulations

on an internal market. The

crises and fears on the part of

in other EU countries. They can

division of labor (specializa-

market performs well if the four

the fifteen old EU member

de-fragment some areas of the

tion), which ensures a rise in

freedoms are ensured: the free

states concerning the 2004 and

internal market.

management efficiency,

movement of goods, people,

2007 enlargements. There was

goods exchange to emerge, • it creates the international

services, and capital. According

a concern about the so called

economies of scale, or

to recent estimates with no

social dumping, or selling

decreasing unit costs and

internal market in place the

goods and services for lower

increasing production

average level of the GDP per

prices, and the migration of

volumes,

capita in EU countries would

workers that would allegedly

have been 12% lower..

lead to increased unemploy-

• it enables achieving

• it improves operational efficiency of domestic

ment in Western countries.

companies, • it increases investment, also foreign.

Where is the Single European Market heading? Impact of the MiLoG law on the Polish road market sector 47

Bibliography

P. Arak, “Cameron: Jak chce ograniczyć imigrację” (“Cameron. How he wants to curb immigration”), Polityka Insight, 1 December 2014 https://www.politykainsight.pl/europa/stoliceunijne/1600937,1,rozwiazania-jak-londyn-chce-ograniczyc-imigracje.read J. Barcz, “Niemiecka ustawa o płacy minimalnej (MiLoG) a transport międzynarodowy w świetle prawa Unii Europejskiej” (“The German minimum wage act (MiLoG) and international transport in the light of EU law”), expert opinion prepared at the request of the Employers’ Association “Transport i Logistyka Polska” (“Transport & Logistics Poland”), Warsaw 2015 “Bariery pozataryfowe dla polskich eksporterów żywności w UE” (”Non-tariff barriers for Polish food producers in the EU”), PwC, Warsaw 2015, http://www. pwc.pl/pl/publikacje/2015/bariery-pozataryfowe-dla-polskich-eksporterow-zywnosci.html A. Barker “Former Polish deputy PM to warn Germany over EU single market” in: “Financial Times” 17 June 2015 http://www.ft.com/intl/ cms/s/0/6d900b86-14e3-11e5-9509-00144feabdc0. html#axzz3ktLb9r2W R. Barro, X. Sala-I-Martin “Convergence” in: “Journal of Political Economy”, 1992, pp. 223-251, K. Bentkowska-Senator, Z. Kordel, J. Waskiewicz “Małe i średnie przedsiębiorstwa w transporcie samochodowym. Stan — strategia. Monografia” (“Small and medium-sized enterprises in road transport. State — Strategy. Monograph”), Instytut Transportu Samochodowego (Road Transport Institute), Warsaw 2015

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48 Where is the Single European Market heading? Impact of the MiLoG law on the Polish road market sector

19 December 2014 https://www.politykainsight.pl/ gospodarka/transport/1603501,1,sytuacja-jak-rosyjskie-embargo-wplywa-na-przewoznikow-drogowych.read J. Petsch Dyrektywa usługowa (The Services Directive), in: Analizy natolińskie (Natolin Analyses), 2006/13 “Polski transport samochodowy: Rynek – Koszty – Ceny” (“Polish road transport: market — costs — prices”), Instytut Transportu Samochodowego (Motor Transport Institute), Warsaw 2012 “Report from the Commission to the European Parliament and the Council on the State of the Union Road Transport Market”, Brussels 2014, http://ec. europa. eu/transport/modes/road/news/com(2014)-222_en.pdf D. Ricardo “On the Principles of Political Economy and Taxation”, London 1817 J. Sachs, A. Warner “Economic Reform and the Process of Global Integration”, in: “Brookings Papers on Economic Activity”, 1995, Vol. 1 M. Stürner “Zasięg swobody świadczenia usług i jej ograniczenia” (“Freedom to provide services and its limitations”), a speech during the conference “Usługi w polsko-niemieckim obszarze gospodarczym bez barier – skutki dla przedsiębiorców i konsumentów” (“Services with no barriers in the Polish-German economic areas — consequences for entrepreneurs and consumers”) in Frankfurt am Oder, 27 October 2010. “Task A – Executive Summary Collection and Analysis of Data on the Structure of the Road Haulage Sector in the

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Where is the Single European Market heading? Impact of the MiLoG law on the Polish road market sector 49

Contact

Authors

Julia Patorska Senior Manager, Sustainability Consulting Central Europe Deloitte +48 22 511 03 26 [email protected]

Katarzyna Lauresh Consultant, Sustainability Consulting Central Europe Deloitte +48 22 5110644 [email protected]

Editorial Łukasz Lipiński

50 Where is the Single European Market heading? Impact of the MiLoG law on the Polish road market sector

Where is the Single European Market heading? Impact of the MiLoG law on the Polish road market sector 51

This report was financed by the “Transport i Logistyka Polska” (TLP – Transport and Logistics Poland) Employer Association. The name “Deloitte” refers to one or several firms of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited, a private limited liability company under UK law and its member firms that are separate and independent legal entities. For a detailed description of the legal structure of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited and its member firms visit www.deloitte.com/ pl/onas. Deloitte provides audit, consulting, tax and financial advisory services to public and private sectors clients operating in various industries. Thanks to a network of member firms in 140 countries we offer top-class skills and experience combined with knowledge of local markets. We help clients achieve success regardless of the place and industry they operate in. 169,000 Deloitte employees across the world are implementing the company’s mission: to ensure the highest quality standards. Deloitte specialists collaborate in a culture of professional reliability and integrity. They endeavor to achieve the maximum value for clients and base their cooperation on loyalty and strength that they draw from diversity. Deloitte provides an environment conducive to the constant broadening of knowledge, acquisition of new experiences and professional development. Deloitte professionals are committed to co-creating corporate social responsibility by undertaking initiatives to build public trust and support local communities. Member of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited © 2015 Deloitte Advisory Sp. z o.o