What is climate change and what can we do about it? Dr Tony Weir Pacific Centre for Environment and Sustainable Development University of the South Pa...
What is climate change and what can we do about it? Dr Tony Weir Pacific Centre for Environment and Sustainable Development University of the South Pacific Pacific Ports Conference 6 September 2010
Climate and Climate Change • Climate is the (30 year) average of weather, including ranges (variability) and patterns • Climate change is change over decadal time scales Minimum temperature at Suva 1961-2003
Trend
30-yr variability
Climate change = global warming (IPCC- A1B, av 2090-99 rel to av 1980-99)
Sea level rise (expansion only, without ice melt)
1.0m ->
0 ->
2000
2100
What Does this mean for the Pacific? Sea Level Rise (adds to effects of storms and high tides)
Kiribati
Water Sources • As sea level rises, salty water enters the freshwater water lens of an atoll and ruins drinking water and crops
Stronger cyclones Perhaps no more frequent but probably more intense (and possibly more in Eastern Pacific)
TC Heta January 2004
Global issues MITIGATING THE CAUSE OF CLIMATE CHANGE • Reduce emissions of ‘greenhouse gases’ (industrialised countries) • Emission reductions (other large countries, e.g. China etc) HELP TO DEAL WITH THE SYMPTOMS • Adaptation (assistance to vulnerable countries) • Technology and finances
Pacific hopes for international action Copenhagen 2009!! Cancun 2010??
Key concepts for any hazard Vulnerability: the potential to be harmed Adaptation: adjustments to reduce vulnerability (“being prepared”)
Adaptation to climate change in the Pacific •
Dealing with climate change is mainly dealing with extreme climate events like those we already encounter. • But the extremes may be more severe and/or more frequent than now. • Pacific people adapted in the past to such events and can do much to do so now. • It’s like the step-up from club football to international football: same game but it’s tougher. Exception: Long term sea level rise may require migration to higher ground or even to other countries
An adaptation to flooding: stilts (Buretu, Rewa delta, Fiji)
Short-term solutions – not sustainable in long-term Flooding in Nadi Town, Fiji – May 2007
Nadi Town (Fiji): the imperative for re-location [Nunn, 2007]
Re-location: the ultimate adaptation? • Acceptance that in future some places cannot continue to be occupied or utilised (as they are today). • Disruption associated with relocation can be reduced by early (anticipatory) action.
Maloku, Moala Island, Fiji
CROSS-CUTTING ISSUE #1: Taking ownership of climate change • Economic development of Pacific Island nations is inextricably tied to environmental productivity.
• Pacific Island nations should not continue to depend on external funding for climate-change adaptation; they should accept the issue as one that affects them intimately and should signal this acceptance by committing recurrent in-country funds.
CROSS-CUTTING ISSUE #2: Effective long-range planning • Long-term national plans should focus on environmental sustainability not short-term profit. • ‘Prevention costs less than cure.’ (-> “Climate-proofing”: Build infrastructure right the first time!
CROSS-CUTTING ISSUE #3: Mainstreaming climate-change awareness • Media responsibility • Coordinated efforts to raise awareness through written and oral outreach • Role of churches • School education
CROSS-CUTTING ISSUE #4: Empowering communities • Direct targeting of community-level decision-makers by international donors and NGOs • Awareness raising by national bodies
The Way Forward – Land loss • Anticipating future land loss – re-locating vulnerable activities – strengthening coastal resilience
The Way Forward – Effective management • Taking ownership of climate change • Long-term development plans • Mainstream climatechange awareness • Empowering community leaders • Re-locating vulnerable activities
The way forward: USP teaching on Climate Change • Course on climate change impacts and adaptation (V&A) is now online annually • Aimed at officials, NGO and church workers, community leaders, etc •
Short courses on request
• Full postgraduate diploma in climate change offered from 2010 (with scholarships from AusAID)
Training
EU ‘Global Climate Change Alliance’ (Pacific regional component, 8m Euro) - From 2011 - USP to lead
