What Does it Take to Implement a 1 Gig Network Presented by: Dean L. Mischke, P.E., V.P.

APRIL 27-30, 2014

ACE/RUS SCHOOL AND SYMPOSIUM

1

So What Does It Take?

If you want it today: Fiber If you want it Symmetrical: Fiber

An Exponential Terminology Bits and Bytes • A terminology for digital information transfer rates (bits) and storage (Bytes) – – – – – – – – –

bit = 0 or 1 Nibble = 4 bits Byte = 8 bits KiloByte (KB) = 1024 Bytes MegaByte (MB) = 1024 KB GigaByte (GB) = 1024 MB TeraByte (TB) = 1024 GB PetaByte (PB) = 1024 TB ExaByte (EB) = 1024 PB

– ZettaByte (ZB) = 1024 EB – YottaByte (YB) = 1024 ZB

http://lifehacker.com/the-difference-between-bits-and-bytes-and-why-it-matte-510705022 http://www.whatsabyte.com/

Download at 10 Mbps Average Sizes and Downloads of some common residential items: Ideal speeds based on no packet loss and no overhead. Actual speeds will vary based on packet size.

• A picture taken with my Android Device

1.4 MB …. 1.2 S

• A song download from iTunes

5.0 MB …. 4.0 S

• A photo taken with a SLR digital camera

10.0-59.9 MB …. 8.0-47.9 S

• A CD worth of data

560 MB …. 7.5 M

• A HD movie on Netflix (varies) but today

3.8 GB …. 50.7 M

– Netflix Ultra (4K) HD Movie

7 GB …. 1.6 H

Perspective on Size Sizes of a large business file: • Digital Lidar file flown by a fixed wing aircraft for a 50 mile segment of new transmission line imaging 800’ in width @ 6 data points per square meter:

= 500 GB file

Perspective on Size • If a vacation picture (1.4 MB) taken on my Android device was the size of a golf ball… (Surface Area of a Sphere)

Dia. = 1.68”

Perspective on Size • Then a 50MB GIS database has the surface area equivalent to a men’s basketball • Diameter = 10”

Perspective on Size • The Finley 500 GB Lidar file would require a football field • Diameter = 84.6’ (28.2 yards) • 4.63 Days to download on a 10 Mbps connection • 1 Hr and 14 Minutes to download on 1 Gbps connection

How Much Bandwidth is Enough? FCC National Broadband Plan Goals • Current – 4 Mbps down / 1 Mbps up actual data rates to all homes

– FCC announced on 4/24/2014 that downstream may raise to 10 Mbps for rural carriers

• 2015 – 50 Mbps down / 20 Mbps up actual data rates to 100 million homes

• 2020 – 100 Mbps down / 50 Mbps up actual data rates to 100 million homes

How Much Bandwidth is Enough? •

The average broadband package today is approximately 9.0 Mbps

•

3.0 Mbps to 50.0 Mbps Advertised by Telecommunications Companies

•

“Fast” broadband is typically advertised by CATV as being over 30 Mbps

•

CATV & FTTP companies are rolling out 50 -100 Mbps services, promising 150 Mbps and 300 Mbps services

•

Only 34% of Comcast Customers subscribe to speeds over 35 Mbps

•

FTTP can deliver over 1 Gbps services and is currently rolled out to over 40 cities

Current Broadband Speeds Globally 27% increase over 2012

US 43.7

US 10.0

Netherlands 12.4 -0.6% from 3rd Q

Netherlands 43.6 Taiwan 50.9

http://www.akamai.com/dl/akamai/akamai-soti-q413-infographic.pdf

Current Broadband Speeds Downstream Variance (Max to Min) = 3.94 Upstream Variance (Max to Min) = 8.60 Downstream Traffic Upstream Traffic

0:00 3:00 6:00 9:00 12:00 15:00 18:00 21:00 0:00 3:00 6:00 9:00 12:00 15:00 18:00 21:00 0:00 3:00 6:00 9:00 12:00 15:00 18:00 21:00 0:00 3:00 6:00 9:00 12:00 15:00 18:00 21:00 0:00 3:00 6:00 9:00 12:00 15:00 18:00 21:00

Ratio between Downstream and Upstream: Maximum = 7.75 Minimum = 1.23 17/04/2014

18/04/2014

19/04/2014

20/04/2014

21/04/2014

Future Bandwidth Requirements • Many experts envision customers will use 100 Mbs within the next 5 years: – As HDTV becomes the normal TV medium – As 20-50 Mbps High Speed Internet becomes the norm to support: – Multimedia Applications (i.e.. Online Gaming) – Streaming Video (i.e. YouTube, Netflix, Apple TV)

– The Cloud increases the need for higher upload speeds – Symmetrical bandwidth becomes more important

Gigabit FTTH Momentum • Momentum highlighted by Google’s entrance – Kansas City, Austin, Provo – Causing incumbents and broader industry to respond

• Anchor institution interest – Gig.U – Gigabit Squared

• FCC called for one Gigabit network in each state by 2015 • Municipals have embraced Gigabit before and after Google • AT&T just announced 21 additional Cities: Some overlap Google

Gigabit FTTH Momentum

http://www.gigabitethernet.solveforce.com/gigabit-ethernet-bandwidth-missouri

Residential Gigabit Pricing • Cedar Falls: $275 • Reedsburg $274.95 to $299.95 Urban and Rural • Chattanooga: Mostly Urban – Gigabit symmetrical for $349.99 -> $299.99 – Sept 2013: Announced 1G to residential for $70, passes 56,000 customers

Residential Gigabit Pricing • Google Fiber: $125 Internet + TV; $70 Internet: Urban – Google: pay construction cost($25/month for 1 year), receive service free for 7 years; •

5 megabits download, 1 megabit upload

• AT&T “U-Verse with GigaPower” $70 with data harvest or $80 otherwise: Urban • Vtel: $35.00 2.5TB data cap, Includes Rural

Is it Really a Gigabit • Sort of – OLT/ONTs will get pretty close • 1 Gbps optical line speed on Active ONTs • 2.4 Gbps optical line speed for GPON – OLT/ONT Overhead – Other Subscribers

Is it Really a Gigabit • Speed test may show 1 Gbps, but throughput determined by: – Local Source or from the Internet – Google KC Last June; Megapath Site on World Wide Web (64 Meg throughput) not Gigabit – Caching

– Packet Size – Capability of the source and destination devices • TCP window size • Latency – Wide Are Network Accelerator – Wide Area Application Services

Is it Really a Gigabit • Sort of – Access Gateways • 10 Gbps Uplink per active or PON blade – Anywhere from 24 Active Customers to 256 GPON customers on an 8 port blade with 1x64 split ratio

• Most Access Gateways are designed with multiple blades served by a single uplink • Support Network and Uplink: Typically 10 Gbps

Calculation of TCP Throughput • How to Calculate TCP Throughput: – Many of the models use the Monte Carlo method • Difficult for the average person to apply

– Many large companies consider how they calculate bandwidth requirements propriety information

Bandwidth = # of Subscribers * Busy Hour Offered Load + Maximum Speed Offered Richard Goodson, CTO Adtran

APRIL 27-30, 2014

ACE/RUS SCHOOL AND SYMPOSIUM

21

Calculation of TCP Throughput Busy Hour Offered Load or Maximum Download Per Subscriber (kbps) 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 5 Mbps or Less 5 Mbps or Less Predominantly Wireless or DSL

Between 5 and 10 Mbps Between 5 - 10 Mbps Relatively even mix between DSL/Coax/FTTH

Above 10 Mbps Above 10 Mbps Predominantly Coax/FTTH

Calculation of TCP Throughput • Bandwidth based on 2000 customers with an BHOL of 0.4 Mbps and a maximum speed of 50 Mbps

BW = 2000 * 0.4 Mbps + 50 Mbps = 850 Mbps • Bandwidth based on 2000 customers with an BHOL of 1.0 Mbps and a maximum speed of 100 Mbps

BW = 2000 * 1.0 Mbps + 50 Mbps = 210 0 Mbps 0r 21 Gbps APRIL 27-30, 2014

ACE/RUS SCHOOL AND SYMPOSIUM

23

Calculation of TCP Throughput Time to Download 7 GB Ultra HD Movie (Seconds) 1000 Mbps 640 Mbps 320 Mbps 160 Mbps 80 Mbps

40 Mbps 20 Mbps 10 Mbps 0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

Calculation of TCP Throughput • Bandwidth based on 2000 customers with an BHOL of 1 Mbps and a maximum speed of 1000 Mbps

BW = 2000 * 1 Mbps + 10000 Mbps = 3000 Mbps or 3 Gbps • Bandwidth based on 2000 customers with an BHOL of 100 Mbps and a maximum speed of 1000 Mbps

BW = 2000 * 100 Mbps + 1000 Mbps = 20100 Mbps or 201 Gbps APRIL 27-30, 2014

ACE/RUS SCHOOL AND SYMPOSIUM

25

The Impact of Gigabit on the Backbone • Cost for backbone bandwidth – Two components: • Capacity Costs: Anywhere from $0.50 to $2.00 per Mbps per Month • Transport Costs: Anywhere from “Included” in some state networks to $2.00 to 6.00 per Megabit from a Typical Statewide Network

– A 10 fold increase in subscriber bandwidth may not cause a 10 fold increase in uplink cost to the ISP/Telco • Local Content Caching Servers – $50,000 to $100,000 Plus – Minimum bandwidth requirements by some content providers

• Local Speed Test Servers

Questions? Dean L. Mischke, P.E., V.P. 715-930-7255 [email protected]

APRIL 27-30, 2014

ACE/RUS SCHOOL AND SYMPOSIUM

27

References:

• AT&T U-verse Gigabit pricing: http://ipcarrier.blogspot.com/2014/04/gigabit-accessalso-disrupts-isps-other.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_ campaign=Feed%3A+blogspot%2FCxDEk+%28IP+Carrier%29 • http://packetpushers.net/tcp-over-ip-bandwidth-overhead/ • http://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2013/12/why-comcast-and-othercable-isps-arent-selling-you-gigabit-internet/ • Adtran Presentation Delivering Gigabit Services over GPON, Richard Goodson Director, Office of the CTO • https://blogs.akamai.com/2013/04/clarifying-state-of-the-internet-reportmetrics.html

APRIL 27-30, 2014

ACE/RUS SCHOOL AND SYMPOSIUM

28