West Lothian. Skills Assessment January SDS-1143-Jan16

West Lothian Skills Assessment January 2016 SDS-1143-Jan16 Acknowledgement The Regional Skills Assessment Steering Group (Skills Development Scotla...
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West Lothian Skills Assessment January 2016

SDS-1143-Jan16

Acknowledgement The Regional Skills Assessment Steering Group (Skills Development Scotland, Scottish Enterprise, the Scottish Funding Council and the Scottish Local Authorities Economic Development Group) would like to thank Ekosgen for their highly professional support in the analysis and collation of the data that forms the basis of this Skills Assessment Update.

Skills Assessment Update: West Lothian

Contents Introduction What is this report? What has changed since 2014? The West Lothian RSA

3 3 3 3

Selected headline indicator changes

4

1 Economic performance Headline summary Gross Value Added (GVA) Productivity Earnings Business base Infrastructure

5 5 5 5 5 6 7

2 Profile of the workforce Headline summary Total employment Employment Structure by industry Occupational profile

7 7 7 8 9

3 People and skills supply Headline summary Population Labour market participation Qualifications and Attainment

9 9 9 10 11

4 Deprivation Headline summary Key messages

11 11 12

5 Education and training provision Headline summary Modern Apprenticeships (MAs) Further/ higher education provision

12 12 12 13

6 Skills mismatches Headline summary

15 15

7 Looking forward Headline summary Population projections Education provision projections Employment projections

16 16 16 16 16

8 Conclusions and considerations

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Skills Assessment Update: West Lothian

Introduction What is this report? This is the 2015 summary Regional Skills Assessment (RSA) for West Lothian. It has been developed by Skills Development Scotland (SDS) in partnership with Scottish Enterprise (SE), the Scottish Funding Council (SFC) and the Scottish Local Authorities Economic Development (SLAED) Group. It updates the 2014 RSA evidence base with the latest data, refreshing and developing what this means for skills investment planning. The 2015 RSA areas now align with Regional Outcome Agreement areas. As part of this realignment, the regional footprint for some RSAs remains unchanged, whilst for others, there has been some change. West Lothian was previously combined with City of Edinburgh, Midlothian and East Lothian to make Edinburgh and the Lothians RSA, whereas now it stands on its own. The update is therefore designed to support the SFC and Regional Colleges in negotiating Regional Outcome Agreements. The update also supports SDS in planning its provision for individuals and businesses, whilst also helping regional partners with their skills investment planning. The 2015 update reports highlight some of the key messages for the regions. They are summary reports, underpinned by the full data matrix, available at sds.co.uk/what-we-do/partnerships/regional-skills-assessments. The data matrix has been redesigned to be more user-friendly, and accompanying guidance on how to use the matrix can be found alongside the full data matrix.

What has changed since 2014? The economic situation in Scotland has continued to improve in the last year, and the recovery evident at the time of the last RSA is more firmly established, with rising GVA and falling unemployment. Against many indicators, Scotland has returned to prerecession levels. There continues to be a rise in the participation of women and older workers, and youth unemployment previously apparent has started to fall. Still, underemployment remains an issue and productivity growth in Scotland (and the UK) remains weak and largely consumer-driven. In policy terms, a new Economic Strategy for Scotland is in place. This puts the 4 ‘I’s – Internationalisation, Investment, Innovation and Inclusive Growth – as central to the strategy. Increasing exports continues to be a key policy objective, and the prominence of Inclusive Growth reflects the desire for a re-balancing form of economic growth. Innovation, including workplace innovation, continues to be highly important. Investment continues to be necessary for firms to be successful. Existing strategies and policies also remain important, including the 2010 Skills Strategy and the 2014 Developing the Young Workforce - Scotland’s Youth Employment Strategy. The 2015 RSA update seeks to reflect some of these policy developments. For the first time the data matrix includes deprivation indicators, and there is greater attention paid to inequality issues such as age, disability and gender indicators. There is also more detail on school-level provision, migration, travel to work/study, claimant counts and employment projections.

The West Lothian RSA This 2015 RSA update covers the geographic area of West Lothian, which is coterminous with the local authority area.

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Skills Assessment Update: West Lothian

Selected headline indicator changes 2014 RSA

2015 RSA

% change

Gross Value Added (GVA) (£m)

£3,556 (2012)

£3,484 (2013)

-2.0%

GVA per worker

£41,100 (2012)

£41,100 (2013)

No change

5,110 (2013)

5,315 (2014)

+4.0%

27 (2012)

36 (2013)

+33.3%

£543 (2012)

£707 (2013)

+30.2%

Total employment

72,800 (2013)

78,200 (2014)

+7.4%

Professional occupations

15,300 (2013)

15,300 (2014)

No change

Total population

176,100 (2013)

177,200 (2014)

+0.6%

ILO unemployed

6,900 (2013/14)

5,400 (2014/15)

-21.7%

16-24 unemployed

837 (Sep 2014)

635 (Sep 2015)

-24.1%

18-24 unemployed (claimants)

835 (Aug 2014)

590 (Aug 2015)

-29.3%

10,904 (2012)

10,825 (2013)

-0.7%

n/a

41% (2015)

n/a

MA starts

840 (2013/14)

785 (2014/15)

-6.5%

MA achievements as % of all leavers

76% (2013/14)

73% (2014/15)

-3 percentage points

-

625 (2014/15)

-

College provision (headcount)

n/a

9,184 (2013/14)

n/a

College provision of HE

n/a

17% (2013/14)

n/a

Total Higher Education students

n/a

172 (2013/14)

n/a

% of employers reporting hard to fill vacancies

7%* (2014)

(next updated 2016)

n/a

% of employers reporting skills shortage vacancies

6%* (2014)

(next updated 2016)

n/a

Economic performance

Number of businesses Business births per 10,000 BERD per head Profile of the workforce

People and skills supply

Deprivation Workless households % of children with free school meals Education and training

Employability Fund starts

Skills mismatches

*Please note, these figures are for the Edinburgh, Fife and the Lothians (City of Edinburgh, Fife, Midlothian and East and West Lothian)

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Skills Assessment Update: West Lothian

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Economic performance

Headline summary • GVA fell by 2% in the region between 2012 and 2013. It remains 3% of the national total, dominated by the production and distribution, transport, accommodation & food sectors. • Productivity levels in 2013 remained below the Scotland and UK averages, unchanged from the previous year. • Average workplace earnings in West Lothian are below Scottish and UK averages, although the gap narrowed in the last year. • The business base is growing at a higher rate than nationally, and professional, scientific and technical and retail businesses making up a quarter of the base. • Business Expenditure on Research and Development (BERD) per head is very high, over four times the Scottish average, with a number of high tech businesses in the region.

Gross Value Added (GVA) Output in West Lothian fell slightly between 2012 and 2013, after it had grown the previous year. The region accounted for 3% of Scotland’s total output in 2013, the same proportion as the previous year, and in line with the region’s share of national population. Output from the region is dominated by the production sector (26%), and by distribution, transport and accommodation and food (23%). The growth rate to 2013 (latest data) was -2.0%, although the average annual growth rate from 2010 to 2013 was positive, at 0.7%, yet well below the Scotland average of 2.6%.

Productivity Levels of productivity in West Lothian are below the Scottish and UK averages and remained unchanged in the last year. GVA per worker as a measure of productivity in the region was £41,100 in 2013, 13% lower than the Scottish average of £47,000 and 19% below the UK average of £51,100. GVA per worker in West Lothian increased by 13% between 2006 and 2013, although this was slower than the 18% growth for Scotland and 17% for the UK.

Earnings Most recent (2014) data shows that jobs in West Lothian, at £491 per week, pay below the Scotland average of £519 and the UK average of £518. Between 2013 and 2014, the median full time worker earnings in the workplace increased by 4% in the region, while they rose by 2% across Scotland.

However, those living in West Lothian earn more – £503 per week – than those working in the region (£491). This reflects some commuting from West Lothian to better-paid jobs in Edinburgh. Median residence-based earnings are however also below the Scotland average, £518. This is for those in full time work.

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Skills Assessment Update: West Lothian

Business base There were 5,315 VAT/ PAYE registered businesses in 2014. This was an increase of 4.0% from 2013, higher than the 2.8% Scotland increase. Overall, the business base has grown by 8% since 2010, which is again higher than the 5% increase in Scotland and 6% across the UK.

Index of Business Base, 2010-14 Source: UK Business Counts

110 105 100 95 90 2010

2011

2012

West Lothian

2013

Scotland

2014 UK

The business base in West Lothian broadly mirrors that of Scotland as a whole. Professional, scientific and technical and retail businesses each accounted for 13% of the business base in 2014, compared to 15% and 11% respectively in Scotland. The West Lothian proportions of businesses in these two sectors were unchanged from 2013. The region has a higher proportion of information and communication businesses (8%) than Scotland (5%) and fewer agriculture, forestry and fishing businesses. Business base by sector Professional, scientific & technical Retail Construction Information & communication Arts, entertainment, other services Accommodation & food services Business admin & support Production Health Wholesale Transport & storage Motor trades Education Agriculture, forestry & fishing Property Finance & insurance Public admin & defence Total

West Lothian

Scotland

13% 13% 10% 8%

15% 11% 9% 5%

7% 7% 6% 6% 6% 5% 5% 3% 3% 3% 2% 1% 1% 5,315

7% 8% 6% 5% 6% 4% 3% 3% 3% 9% 3% 2% 1% 203,760

Source: UK Business Counts

The profile of businesses by size remains broadly similar to Scotland. 77% of registered businesses in West Lothian are micro firms employing fewer than 10 people, compared to 80% across Scotland. 4% employ more than 50, slightly higher than the Scotland average. In 2014, there were 35 businesses in West Lothian employing more than 250. There were 635 business births in 2013, and, at 36 per 10,000 population, this was a significant increase on the 27 per 10,000 in 2012, but still below the Scottish average of 40. Levels of Business Expenditure on R&D (BERD) in the region continue to be very high, and at £707 per head are over four times the Scotland average of £150 per head. This is due to the cluster of high tech businesses in the region, including Silicon Glen near Livingston and Oracle/Sun Microsystems near Linlithgow. There are 95 Scottish Enterprise account managed companies, up from 79 a year previously and 4% of the lowland Scotland total, above the region’s national share of businesses. 6

Skills Assessment Update: West Lothian

2

Profile of the workforce

Headline summary • Total employment increased significantly between 2013 and 2014, twice the Scotland rate, after several years of employment decline in the region. • The health and construction sectors dominate the employment base, making up almost one quarter of jobs in the region. • Employment in the information and communications sector is more than twice as concentrated as that in Scotland as a whole. • The number and proportion employed in professional occupations in the region fell back in 2014, after growth from 2004.

Total employment This update provides new employment data for 2013 and 2014. Total employment increased sharply between 2013 and 2014 to 78,200, at 7% a rate well above the Scottish average of 3%, after falling year-on-year since 2009. Overall, between 2009 and 2014, total employment fell by 3%, while it grew by 1% in Scotland and 4% in Great Britain.

Index of Total Employment, 2009-14 Source: Business Register and Employment Survey

110 105 100 95 90 85 80 2009

2010

2011

West Lothian

2012 Scotland

2013

2014

GB

Employment structure by industry The health sector is the top employing sector in the region, with 9,300 jobs, followed by construction (9,200), both employing 12% of the workforce. Construction employment in West Lothian is double the Scottish (6%) and Great Britain (5%) proportions. The health sector accounts for 12% of total employment but just 6% of the business base, reflecting a small number of large employers in the sector.

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Skills Assessment Update: West Lothian

Information and communication is an important employment sector in West Lothian, employing almost 5,000 and 6% of the workforce. It is more than twice as concentrated as Scotland’s employment overall. Other concentrated sectors are construction, wholesale and motor trades. The employment base is under-represented in a number of sectors, including public sector services such as health and education and financial services. West Lothian region sector specialisation (2014) Information & communication

254%

Construction Wholesale Motor trades Transport & storage (inc postal) Retail Business admin. & support services Production Professional, scientific & technical

208% 198% 182% 134% 113% 104% 99% 79%

Education Arts, entertainment, recreation & other services Health Public administration & defence Accommodation & food services Property

77%

Financial & insurance Agriculture, forestry & fishing

45% 8%

75% 74% 73% 71% 53%

Source: Business Register and Employment Survey

The 2014 RSA identifies the top 20 sectors in 2012 (of 616 sectors). Key changes over the 2012-2014 period included significant growth in electrical installation employment, almost 2,700 jobs and a fall in meat and poultry production and cleaning, with the region losing almost 1,000 job losses from each of these two sectors. Electrical installation (+236%) Restaurants (+42%) Other human health activities (+38%)

Meat and poultry production (-97%) General cleaning of buildings (-53%) Pharmaceutical wholesale (-32%)

In 2013, there were 11,700 jobs in the Scottish Government’s identified growth sectors in the region, the majority being in Sustainable tourism (4,000) and Financial and business services (3,700), as was the case in the previous year. West Lothian has a concentration of employment in the Creative industries sector, 108% of the national average. However, the region is under-represented in the Energy (15%) and Food and drink (44%) sectors. Over £3m of Regional Selective Assistance was awarded to businesses in the region between 2011 and 2014, 2% of the national total. This is slightly below the region’s share of the national business base (3%). Over one third (37%) of this grant funding went to businesses in the Digital media and enabling technologies sector, and these grants are estimated to have created/safeguarded some 350 jobs in the region.

Occupational profile The occupational profile in West Lothian is broadly similar to that of Scotland, although there are a number of important differences. Whilst 15,300 are employed in the professional occupations in West Lothian, at 17% of the workforce, this is a lower proportion than nationally (20%) and a fall from 20% in the previous year. That said, the number of people employed in professional occupations in the region has increased overall by 42% between 2004 and 2014. The region also has a lower proportion employed in associate professional and technical occupations.

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Skills Assessment Update: West Lothian

Occupational Profile, 2014 Source: Annual Population Survey Elementary occupations Process, plant and machine operatives Sales and Customer Service Caring, leisure and other service occupation Skilled Trades Occupations Administrative and Secretarial Associate Prof & Tech Professional Occupations Managers, Directors & Senior Officials

0%

5%

West Lothian

10%

15%

20%

25%

Scotland

There are also higher proportions employed in sales and customer services and elementary occupations, as well as in process, plant and machine operative occupations, although in the case of the latter numbers continue to fall. Almost one third (31%) of operative jobs have been lost or relocated since 2004. The proportion of caring, leisure and other service occupations has increased by just 4% over the period from 2004, compared to the 20% increase across Scotland.

3

People and skills supply

Headline summary • The population in West Lothian increased between 2013 and 2014, returning the region to the strong growth levels evident between 2004 and 2011. • The employment rate remains higher in the region than in Scotland, and at 77% indicates a relatively tight labour market. • ILO unemployment fell between 2012/13 and 2014/15. The number of young people out of work and not in education or training is well below 2013 levels. • The proportion of school leavers entering Higher Education increased in the year to 2013/2014. A lower proportion of young people than average also has no qualifications.

Population The West Lothian population increased at a higher rate than Scotland between 2013 and 2014, returning the region to one of strong population growth which outpaced Scotland and UK growth rates between 2004 and 2011. At an estimated 177,200, the 2014 population was a further 0.6% higher than 2013, and an 8% increase from 2004. This compares to 5% growth in Scotland and 8% growth in the UK over the same 2004-2014 period.

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Skills Assessment Update: West Lothian

Index of Total Population, 2004-14 Source: Mid-Year Population Estimates

110 108 106 104 102 100 98 96 94 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 West Lothian

Scotland

UK

The largest increases have been those aged 65+ (of almost 40%), more than double the rate of increase for this age group across Scotland. The 45-54 age group has also seen a significant increase of 27%, 11 percentage points higher than the national rate of increase. There is a certain amount churn in the population: just under 5,500 have left the area over the 10 year period, although population has increased overall.

Labour market participation In 2014/15, the employment rate for West Lothian was 77%, above the Scotland rate of 73%. This maintains the 4 percentage point increase evident in 2013/14, reflecting a relatively tight labour market. Employment rates have consistently been above the Scotland rate over the past decade.

80% of jobs in West Lothian are full time, and this is higher than the 74% across Scotland. Conversely, the proportion of part time jobs in West Lothian is also lower than the 26% in Scotland and the UK.

In 2012/2013 there were 5,800 ILO unemployed (those out of work and actively seeking work), and this decreased to 5,400 in 2014/2015, although there had been an increase in the intervening year. The ILO unemployment rate in 2014/15 was 6% in West Lothian, comparable to the 6% in Scotland and the UK. In 2015 there were 635 unemployed young people aged 16-24 in the region, down 24% from the previous year, in line with falling youth unemployment across Scotland. There were 590 young people aged 18-24 out of work and claiming Jobseekers Allowance (as of August 2015). There were also 650 young people described as Not in Employment, Education or Training in 2014 and this has fallen by almost 40% since 2009, in line with the Scottish average. However the rate (at 7.5%) is higher than the 6.4% average across Scotland.

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Skills Assessment Update: West Lothian

In all, 15% of all those aged 16-64 in West Lothian are work-limited through disability, comparable with the 15% in Scotland and the UK. This indicates that some 17,400 people in the region are work-limited through disability. Travel to work distances are slightly higher the Scotland averages. Just under one in ten works from home (11% nationally) and 9% travel less than 2km (13% nationally). 18% travel more than 20km, compared to 13% nationally. The modal journey is between 10km and 20km reflecting a strong commuting flow to Edinburgh.

Qualifications and attainment There was a decrease in the proportion of West Lothian school leavers entering Higher Education in 2014/2015, 37% of the total, up from 42% in 2012/2013, and below the Scotland average of 39%. The proportion entering Further Education, at 30% is an increase from the previous year. Just over a fifth (21%) entered employment, an increase from the previous year. The proportion unemployed (seeking or otherwise) continues to fall, to 7% in 2014/2015 (from 8% the previous year, and 10% in 2012/2013). In all, 93% entered a positive destination, in line with the Scotland level. 9% of those aged 16-64 years in West Lothian have no qualifications; in Scotland and the UK this is also 9%. Those with lower level qualifications (SCQF 1-4) are also in line with averages, 11% in West Lothian and 11% in Scotland. Similarly a comparable proportion have higher level qualifications (at SCQF 7-12), which at 35% in West Lothian is in line with the Scotland average of 41% In terms of 16-24 year olds, just 4% have no qualifications in the region, compared with 7% of this age range in Scotland. A larger proportion of young people have qualifications at SCQF 5 (42% versus 27% nationally), although lower proportion has high level qualifications in the region than nationally – 15% versus 24%.

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Deprivation

Headline summary • Average household earnings are marginally higher than the Scotland average. • However, there are still around 11,000 workless households in the region. • The proportion of school pupils entitled to free school meals is also higher than the Scotland average. The 2015 data matrix includes data on deprivation for the first time. This affects both labour market supply and the skills support needs of individuals. On the whole, West Lothian is more affluent than the Scottish average, yet this masks concentrations of residents on low incomes and some quite high numbers suffering relative deprivation.

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Skills Assessment Update: West Lothian

Key messages 9% of households in West Lothian have average household earnings of less than £10,000 per year, a lower proportion than the 13% average across Scotland. By contrast, 32% of households in West Lothian have incomes above £30,000, which is higher than the 31% across Scotland.

18% of West Lothian households are workless households, compared to 20% in Scotland, and 17% in the UK. Still, this equates to some 10,825 workless households in the region (2013). The employment domain of the latest (2012) Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD) provides further information on employment deprivation. 8% of the region’s 211 datazones (16) are in the 15% most employment deprived datazones in Scotland. Whilst there are concentrations of unemployment, particularly in and around Linlithgow and Almond Valley, these are less widespread than in other parts of Scotland.

In all, 41% of those at school in the region are entitled to free school meals, above the Scottish average of 39%. This represents around 11,000 children.

5

Education and training provision

Headline summary • The most popular SDS-supported MAs in the region are retail, hospitality, business administration, and automotive. • There were just over 9,000 FE students at West Lothian College and the Oatridge campus of SRUC in 2013/14, with care and hairdressing, beauty and complementary therapies the most common courses taken. 17% of these students were studying HE at college. • 172 students were studying at the one (SRUC) Higher Education Institution in the region in 2013/2014, with 84% of the students from the rest of Scotland.

Modern Apprenticeships (MAs) There were 785 MA starts in West Lothian 2014/2015 supported by SDS, a decrease from the 840 in 2013/2014. Almost two thirds of these starts were male (61%) and four in ten were female, broadly in line with the Scotland average. There were 895 leavers in 2014/2015, a similar figure to the previous year (885 in 2013/14).

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Skills Assessment Update: West Lothian

The most popular frameworks for starts in 2014/15 were in retail (115), hospitality (75), business and administration (75) and automotive (60). Some of these remain dominated by one gender or the other, including automotive, with all starts being male and the majority of business and administration starts female. In other sectors, such as hospitality, there is more of a gender balance. In all, 57% of MA starts in in 2014/2015 were aged 16-19, which is similar to the Scottish average. Achievements at 73% in 2014/2015, as a percentage of all leavers, is slightly lower than the previous year of 76%. At 73% this is also slightly below the Scotland average of 74%. The rates in the region in general, however, have risen over the last five years.

Employability Fund (EF) The EF supports a range of interventions to support employability. There were 625 EF starts in the region in 2014/2015. Just over two thirds of these (69%) were male, higher than the 63% in Scotland. EF starts in West Lothian are typically younger than the Scottish average, with 66% aged 16-17 years old, ten percentage points higher than the Scottish average of 56%. Within this, there were 175 starts on the Certificate of Work Readiness (CWR), the new national work placement and class-based Award, involving up to 30 employers.

Further/ Higher Education provision School provision For the first time the data matrix provides information on school provision. There were 10,749 pupils enrolled at secondary school in the West Lothian region in 2014, 27% of whom were S5 and S6, a little lower than the 29% across Scotland. The school roll is projected to fall slightly until 2016 with an increase of 3% by 2018. Across Scotland, the trend is for a 2% fall over the period to 2018.

College provision College provision is via West Lothian College and the Scottish Rural College (SRUC) Oatridge campus. 59% of West Lothian residents who are at College study locally. 9,184 students (headcount) were studying at college in West Lothian in 2013/2014. 83% of this was at FE level, 17% at HE level. Previous data provides figures for students collectively at college in in Edinburgh and the Lothians as a whole. A total of 28,430 students were at college within the wider Edinburgh and the Lothians region in 2012/2013. In 2013/14, 40% of college students in West Lothian, were from outside the region. A higher proportion than the Scotland average are aged over 25 (48% compared to 39%). As in 2012/13, a higher proportion aged 16-19 are on full time courses.

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Skills Assessment Update: West Lothian

51% of college students in the area are female; overall just 5% of all students are from the most deprived 10% - (compared to 16% in Scotland) – reflecting the relative affluence of the area. Care (17% of courses taken by students) and hairdressing, beauty and complementary therapies (13%) were those most taken up by college students in West Lothian, both above the Scottish average (and higher than the figures for Edinburgh and the Lothians in 2012/2013). Land based industries is the third most popular course (11%) which is above the 2% nationally.

University provision In all, 172 students (headcount) were studying at the one Higher Education Institute (HEI) in West Lothian in 2013/2014 i.e. the Scottish Rural College (SRUC) Oatridge campus in West Lothian. Of these, 15% were from West Lothian with the vast majority of the remainder from the rest of Scotland, reflecting that SRUC is a national institution. A higher proportion than the Scottish average are aged between 16 and 19 (65% compared to 25%). Overall, 58% of HEI students in the region are male, in line with the national figures. The most popular course in 2013/14 was Vet Sciences, Agriculture and Related (80% of student enrolment) followed by Physical Sciences (13% of student enrolment). These figures reflect SRUC’s specialisms.

Graduates There were 137 graduates from West Lothian in 2013/14, less than 1% of all graduates from Scotland’s HEIs. All of the graduates in the area had a first degree. Six months after graduating, 35% of graduates were in full time work, less than the 61% nationally. A further 10% were in part time work, 35% were in further study and 18% working and studying. Just 2% were unemployed, lower than the national figure of 5%. West Lothian graduates were most commonly employed in agriculture, forestry and fishing (19%) compared to less than 1% of all graduates in Scotland.

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Skills mismatches

Headline summary • The majority of employers in the wider Edinburgh, Fife and the Lothians region have recruited in the past 2-3 years, with many employing leavers from Scottish education institutions. • FE/HE and school leavers in the region are deemed more work-ready by employers than the Scottish average. • Employers were more likely to report vacancies than the Scottish average, including those hard to fill or skills shortages. • Skills gaps span a variety of occupational groups including skilled trades, care, leisure, sales and customer services, operatives and elementary occupations. There is no new data on skills mismatches from the previous year, given that the survey is undertaken every two years. The previous dataset of skills mismatches was for the wider regional data set for Edinburgh, Fife and the Lothians. The key messages to reemphasise are:

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Skills Assessment Update: West Lothian

Almost three quarters (72%) of employers in the region had recruited in the 2-3 years prior to the survey, and 32% had taken on leavers from Scottish education institutions (both above the Scotland averages of 67% and 26%). Of those recruiting leavers, 91% of those from universities were regarded as well or very well prepared for work, and 79% of those from colleges. However, 68% of school leavers were regarded as well or very well prepared for work, although still above the national average of 65%. Of those reported to be poorly prepared, the main reasons cited are a lack of world/ life experience or maturity, poor attitude/personality or lack of motivation or lack of required skills or competencies. Employers in the wider Edinburgh, Fife and the Lothians region were more likely to report current vacancies than the Scotland average (18%, compared to 12%); more hard to fill vacancies (7% compared to 6% nationally) and skills shortage vacancies (6% compared to 4%). Just over a fifth ( 21%) of employers in the wider Edinburgh, Fife and the Lothians region reported that not all of their staff are fully proficient, with at least one skill gap, above the average for Scotland of 19% - with skills gaps across different occupational groups such as care, skilled trades, leisure, sales and customer services, operatives and elementary occupations. The wider Edinburgh, Fife and the Lothians region has high concentrations of employment in financial services. A Skills Investment Plan has been produced for this sector and highlights a series of priority actions to address current and future skills gaps and shortages in alignment with the Scottish Government’s economic strategy. The Skills Investment Plans can be found here: sds.co.uk/what-we-do/partnerships/skills-investment-plans/

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Skills Assessment Update: West Lothian

7

Looking forward

Headline summary • The population of the region is forecast to continue to rise, by almost 9,000 (5%) to 2024, while there is similar growth forecast across Scotland and the UK. • The greatest increases are forecast for those of retirement age, although school roll numbers are also set to rise in the next five years when they are falling across Scotland. • Employment growth across Scotland is also forecast, of more than 5% to 2022, with the proportion growing fastest in information technology and health and social work.

Population projections

2012 based projections indicate that the population of West Lothian is forecast to grow by a further 8,918 over the 2014-2024 period, an increase of 5%. This is in line with a 5% growth at the UK level, and higher than the 4% forecast increase at the Scotland level.

The largest increases are expected in those of retirement age, where there is anticipated to be a 53% increase in those aged over 75 (well above the 28% nationally) and a 17% increase in those aged 65-74. However, there is an increase in population projected in all ages, except for 30-49 year olds, which is forecast to fall by 13%.

Education provision projections As the summary indicates, the school roll is projected to rise slightly by about 3% to 2018. Across Scotland, the trend is for a 2% fall over the period to 2018.

Employment projections Based on 2012 figures, national employment figures are projected to rise by 5.3% between 2012 and 2022, with the fastest increases occurring between 2017 and 2020. The sectors with the largest projected employment growth over the period are information technology (32%), health and social work (17%), real estate (14%) and electricity and gas, finance and insurance and construction (all 13%). As top employers in West Lothian, an anticipated 17% rise in health employment and 13% rise in construction employment could see a number of new jobs created in the region. There is, however, projected to be considerable fall in agriculture employment (-15%), other manufacturing (-12%), public administration (-11%) and mining and quarrying (-10%). These sectors are of lesser importance in employment terms to West Lothian, and so any sectoral decline is likely to have less severe impacts than elsewhere in Scotland.

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Skills Assessment Update: West Lothian

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Conclusions and considerations

The economy of the West Lothian region is growing and the employment rate, at 77%, reflects a relatively tight labour market. Both the business base and total employment are growing at faster rates than Scotland and UK averages, following some recession-related decline. West Lothian has a strong production sector, including high tech manufacturing, and a concentration of information and communication employment. These are positive economic trends, although jobs in the region are less well paid on average than those working outside the region, and there is a certain amount of commuting to Edinburgh, which offers better paid employment. There remains a lower proportion than average in the professional occupations and higher proportions in sales and customer services, elementary occupations and amongst those working as operatives. There has also been a very modest increase in the proportion employed in caring, leisure and other service occupations at a time of strong demand and increases across Scotland. In line with increasing employment rates, unemployment rates have fallen, and these are now in line with the Scotland average. Youth unemployment is also falling. At the same time, there is a high (and increasing) proportion of school leavers entering Higher Education, and this may have implications for meeting employer demand in the future, especially for lower skilled sectors and occupations. Despite the strengthening labour market, there are concentrations of deprivation, and there are 11,000 workless households in the region. It may not be possible to significantly increase employment rates further however, although those not part of the labour market should continue to be supported. Nonetheless, there are likely to be challenges meeting employer demand for skills. The number of MA starts fell in 2014/2015, as did achievement rates, and West Lothian College will have an important role in providing the future supply of skills required. Across the wider region at the time of the last survey, there were skills gaps including care, skilled trades, leisure, sales and customer services, operatives and elementary occupations. This is likely to continue to be the case in West Lothian, and despite care and personal services being the most popular College courses, and retail, hospitality, business and administration and automotive the most popular MAs, there is likely to be an ongoing need for such provision. The population and employment base are forecast to increase, and there is projected to be a significant increase in those of retirement age. This is likely to further increase the demand for health and care sector skills, which for social care includes strong replacement demand, which will require sufficient levels of supply. Some key considerations arising are therefore:

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How best to meet the demands of the growing West Lothian regional economy, particularly given competition for higher skilled labour from Edinburgh.



How to meet the needs of the ageing population, particularly given very modest recent increases in care occupation employment – are there sufficient numbers entering the care sector to meet replacement demand and sector growth?

Skills Assessment Update: West Lothian

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How to increase the employment rate, when at 77% the rates are already quite high and above the national average?



How to overcome the gender domination in certain College/MA subjects when this has persisted over time?