19th Sept 2011

Weekly Technical Report Weekly Technical Report Weekly Technical Report The Bear Market Pull Back Continues (19th to 23rd Sep 2011, Nifty CMP: 5084): Market is still in a downtrend and bulls have lot of work (at least a close above 5200 ) to do before we can expect any meaningful change in the present scenario. Spot Nifty ended the week at 5084, up 25 points or 0.49%. Sensex closed at 16934, up by 67 points or 0.39%. BSE Midcap index was down by 45 points or 0,70% to close at 6390 and BSE Smallcap index was down by 91 points or 1.2% to close at 7213 respectively. Volume was slightly lower as compared to previous week and the market breadth was mostly in a neutral bias.

Trend Analysis:

The market will form a credible base only if it manages to surpass 5200, until that happens we will continue to rate the intermediate term trend as negative, although the three week rise has turned the short term trend upward. In a nutshell, we continue to be in a bear market and experiencing a pull back rally.

Momentum Indicators:

Not surprisingly, most of the momentum indicators remain negative in their weekly timeframe. MACD on weekly chart is in a sell mode along with RSI treading below 50 and +DI (14.0) treading well below –DI (30.0) making the scenario bearish too. On the contrary, Stochastic is in a buy mode, but in the present context, this carries lesser weightage.

Moving Averages 50 SMA: 5266 & Falling. 100 SMA: 5382 & Falling

Spot Nifty Important levels for Next Week Support Resistance

1 5000 5180

2 4940 5250

3 4825 5330

200 SMA: 5547 & Falling

NIFTY Derivatives Statistics Spot Nifty ended the week at 5084 whereas Nifty Sep Future ended at 5087 commanding a premium of 3 points to the underlying. The highest number of call option build up is visible in the Nifty strike 5200 call totaling 6.16 million and the maximum put option build up is visible in the Nifty strike 4700 put totaling 9.03 million.

Trading Strategy for next week: We would consider being sellers: around 5100 with stop loss above 5180 targeting 5000/4940. In case Nifty goes past 5200, we would like to buy with stop loss at 5100 and targeting for 5300/5360.

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19th Sept 2011

Weekly Technical Report Weekly Technical Report Weekly Technical Report Commodity and Currency Previous week global market was quite strong especially the western market where most of the major indices moved ahead further. Among the European majors DAX had the best performance where some light was visible to solve the Greece debt problem and the announcement from the Chinese government regarding the buying of Italian bonds also boosted the market sentiment. In the US, major indices had advanced further on the hopes of QE3 which might be announced in the FED meeting in the last week of Sep. Among the emerging markets most of them ended the week flat of course Hang Seng and Russian market had some dip cut. Back home our market too responded well along with the international bourses and ended the week with a minor gain. During the week country’s apex bank RBI has raised the repo rate by 25 bps to 8.25%, for twelfth consecutive time to contain the inflation also petrol prices too went up by Rs3/litre. Of course not much reaction was felt in our market due to strong global sentiment. FII’s figure in the cash market was positive during the week. So in the near term our markets are likely to take direction from the local macro factors, global cues and FII stance. In the commodity space, Gold has corrected nearly 2.5% during the week to finish at $1810/oz and Silver too corrected nearly 2% to finish the week at $40.58/oz. Base metal complex finished flat during the week. Light sweet Crude oil finished the week flat near $87.9/barrel. In the currency segment US Dollar index lost some weight against the basket of major cross currencies where Euro bounced back nicely during the week. Dollar index finished the week at 76.6.On the other hand Indian currency depreciated heavily against the US Dollar and finished the week at 47.32 down by 84 paisa which is the lowest level in last two years.

Technical Outlook for S&P 500 Next Week (19th to 23rd Sept 2011, CMP: 1216 Bulls Trying To Hold the Line It is interesting to note that the S&P 500 is trying to stay above the 1200 mark. So far at least, it appears that the bulls have been able to hold the line. Thus, we'll be watching the 1220 and the 1230 area on the S&P very closely. A breakout above 50DMA(1228) will be bullish. Alternatively, failure to do so chances are S&P 500 will resume its intermediate term downtrend. S&P 500 closed at 1216 up by 61.78 points or 5.35% on w.o.w basis. The intermediate-term trend remains moderately negative as indicated by the fact that S&P 500 has still trading below its 50DMA(which is slopping down). In weekly MACD is in sell mode and RSI(14) has recovered from its oversold zone. While Positive Directional Indicator (+DI) is trading below Negative one (-DI) making the scenario bearish.

We would consider being buyers: on pullback around 1200 with stop loss below 1180 targeting 1228-30/1240 in 1-2 week.

Support Resistance

1 1200 1230

2 1180 1240-45

3 1160 1260

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19th Sept 2011

Weekly Technical Report Weekly Technical Report Weekly Technical Report Technical Outlook for Spot Gold Next Week (19th to 23rd Sept 2011, CMP: $1810/oz) The retracement Phase Has Commenced The "retracement" phase of the strong uptrend appears to be in action this week. The key question now is how long this may continue. We believe $1750/oz to $1730/oz (50DMA is at $1728/oz) will be the place Gold should find strong demand (in case any retracement) from intermediate term point of view. Gold settle at $1810.84/oz down by $46.47/oz or 2.50%. The primary trend of Gold is extremely positive (although overbought and not making any fresh progress in last couple of week) and intermediate term trend is choppy. In weekly MACD is in buy mode and RSI (14) remains overbought for a extend period (sign of strong up trend). Positive Directional Indicator (+DI) is trading well above the Negative one (-DI) making the scenario extremely bullish too.

We would consider being buyers: on breakout above $1830/oz with a stop loss below $1788/oz targeting $1900/oz and $1920/oz.

We would consider being sellers: below $1780/oz with a stop loss above $1815/oz targeting $1765/oz and $1730/oz. Support Resistance

1 1788 1850

2 1765 1880

3 1730 1900-1910

Technical Outlook for WTI Light Sweet Crude Next Week (19th to 23rd Sept 2011, CMP: $87.96/barrel) Resistance looming ahead Nothing has changed much since last week. WTI Crude still trading below its 50DMA posted at $91.00/barrel, which is acting as a strong resistance. As such, only a breakout above this will be bullish. On the other hand trading below this level the resumption of the intermediate term downtrend is likely. WTI Crude closed the week at $87.96/barrel up by $0.72/points or 0.82%. Presently MACD is in sell mode and 14 weeks RSI placed below 50 keeping the scenario bearish. On the other hand, Positive Directional Indicator (+DI) is trading below the Negative one (-DI) making the scenario bearish too.

We would consider being sellers: below $85.00/barrel with stop loss above $88.10/barrel targeting $82.00/barrel and $78.00/barrel in 2-3 weeks.

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19th Sept 2011

Weekly Technical Report Weekly Technical Report Weekly Technical Report We wolud consider being buyers: above $91.00/barrel with stop loss below $88.80/barrel targeting $95.00/barrel in 2-3 weeks.

Support Resistance

1 85.00 91.14

2 82.00 93.40

3 80.00 95.46

World Indices Security Name DAX S&P 500 INDEX DOW JONES INDL AVG (DJIA) FTSE 100 INDEX BRAZIL BOVESPA CAC NIKKEI 225 INDEX S&P CNX NIFTY BSE - SENSEX TAIWAN WEIGHTED SHANGHAI COMP HANG SENG INDEX RUSSIAN RTSI INDEX

Close 5573.51 1216.01 11509.1 5368.41 57210.1 3031.08 8864.16 5084.25 16933.83 7577.4 2482.34 19455.3 1574.94

POD 383.5796 61.78 517 153.7603 1431.703 56.49 126.5 24.7998 66.8594 -33.1699 -15.4099 -411.299 -50.3501

%Change 7.3908 5.3525 4.7034 2.9486 2.5668 1.8991 1.4478 0.4902 0.3964 -0.4358 -0.617 -2.0703 -3.0979

CMP 5101.70 8748.63 1801.79 3194.80 7762.14 8832.91 2216.90 11127.53 5986.40 12248.06 3933.69 6390.12 7213.02 6612.40 12049.71

POD 151.59 130.45 25.61 40.87 96.68 79.13 11.06 29.69 3.07 -57.96 -26.75 -45.36 -91.00 -108.79 -386.16

%Change 3.06 1.51 1.44 1.30 1.26 0.90 0.50 0.27 0.05 -0.47 -0.68 -0.70 -1.25 -1.62 -3.11

BSE Sectoral Indices Security Name BSE IT SECTOR BSE OIL & GAS INDEX BSE REALTY INDEX BSE TECK BSE PSU INDEX BSE AUTO INDEX BSE POWER INDEX BSE BANKEX BSE HEALTHCARE BSE METAL INDEX BSE FMCG INDEX BSE MIDCAP BSE SMALLCAP BSE CONSUMER DURABLES BSE CAPITAL GOODS

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19th Sept 2011

Weekly Technical Report Weekly Technical Report Weekly Technical Report Weekly technical Pick: Kajaria Ceramics (CMP: 110.75) Stochastic (Daily): In a buy mode RSI: Above 50 Intermediate Trend: Upward Volume: Steady

Buying Zone

Target -1

Target - 2

Stop Loss

Time Horizon

Around : 108110

115

119

104.7 on closing

2 to 3 weeks

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19th Sept 2011

Weekly Technical Report Weekly Technical Report Weekly Technical Report Weekly technical Pick: GSFC (CMP: 434.90) Stochastic (Daily): In a buy mode RSI: Above 50 Intermediate Trend: Upward Volume: Steady

Buying Zone

Target -1

Target - 2

Stop Loss

Time Horizon

Around : 428432

450

465

414 on closing

2 to 3 weeks

Technical Research Team SPA Securities Ltd [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] Tele:033-40114821

Disclaimer: The trading ideas discussed or recommended in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Investors should use this research as one input into formulating an investment opinion. Additional inputs should include, but are not limited to, the review of other. This is not an offer (or solicitation of an offer) to buy/sell the securities/instruments mentioned or an official confirmation. Spa Securities Limited is not responsible for any error or inaccuracy or for any losses suffered on account of information contained in this report. This report does not purport to be offer for purchase and sale of share/ units. We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees, including persons involved in the preparation or issuance of this material may: (a) from time to time, have long or short positions in, and buy or sell the securities thereof, of company (is) mentioned herein or (b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation discussed herein or act as advisor or lender or borrower to such company (is) or have other potential conflict of interest with respect to any recommendation and related information and opinions. The same persons may have acted upon the information contained here. No part of this material may be duplicated in any form and/or redistributed without Spa Securities Limited’ prior written consent.

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