Weekly Market Monitor
GBCM Research
Current Week
Previous Week
WTD (%)
MSM30
5,758.92
5,848.66
‐1.53%
‐14.74%
1.000
6,281.02
6,433.02
‐2.36%
‐24.50%
1.069
6,413.61
6,582.73
‐2.57%
‐12.22%
0.980
2,462.68
2,471.64
‐0.36%
‐8.98%
0.814
Financial
YTD (%)
August 6, 2011
Index Performance
Beta (5 Yr)
MSM slide continues amidst low volumes…
Industrial
Service
Source: MSM, GBCM Research
MSM 30 Index Performance Vs Turnover
A total of 18.8 million shares got traded during the week amounting to an aggregate turnover of RO 7.693 million as compared to RO 10.838 million in the previous week. In terms of investor participation, Foreign Investors emerged as net buyers during the week to an extent of RO 525K. GCC Investors emerged as net sellers to an extent of RO 467K during the week.
2,500
(RO '000s)
5,900
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
‐
5,850
Turnover ('000s)
MSM 30 Index
Fig. In RO GCC Arabs Others
As per the executive president of CBO, Oman’s first Islamic bank, the Bank Nizwa is expected to start operation by towards the end of 2011 or early next year with a capital of RO150 million. Of this, 40% will be offered to the public through an IPO. CBO is working on formulating a separate regulation for Islamic banks. Existing banks, intending to start window operation for Sharia‐compliant products, can offer them through an existing branch and there is no need for opening an exclusive branch. (Source: Times of Oman)
5,750
31‐Jul
1‐Aug
2‐Aug
3‐Aug
5,700
4‐Aug
2,072
1,658
1,395
1,717
1,605
1,318
5,849
5,808
5,832
5,812
5,758
5,759
MSM Weekly Trading Activity ‐ Total Turnover RO 7.693 million
Omanis
Bank Nizwa gears up to open doors early…
5,800
28‐Jul
Net Buy / (Sell)
Buy
Sell
5,416,795
5,416,372
423
515,977
982,557
(466,581)
117,920
176,890
(58,970) 525,128
1,642,442 1,117,313
Despite resolution of US Debt ceiling issue in the week gone by, weakening health of global economy had a negative impact on the performances of equity markets all over. The MSM Index closed the week lower by 1.53% at 5758.92 points. This level of MSM marks a two year low. From among the sectoral indices, the Financial Index closed the week lower by 2.36%. The Industrial Index ended the week with loss of 2.57%. The Services Index too ended the week in red by 0.36%.
Outlook for the upcoming week… Post downgrading of the credit rating of United States from AAA to AA+ by S&P, we expect the global equities and commodities to continue their volatile run during the upcoming week. GBCM Research anticipates the local equities to open gap down in tomorrow’s trading session and see a wave of panic selling by the traders. With the Omani equity markets already underperformed during the current year, we believe that the anticipated decline due to global uncertainties could be taken as an accumulation strategy for the long only funds. We also expect the Q2 2011 Earnings of index heavyweights Omantel, Renaissance and Galfar Engineering during the week.
Source: MSM, GBCM Research
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Weekly Market Monitor
GBCM Research
Value Leaders‐ Weekly
Top five Gainers/ Losers for the Week 35%
2,500
Uni Power
8.33%
30% 2,000
Nat Min Water
3.23%
25%
29.67%
Acwa Power
2.50%
1,500
20%
Transgulf Inv Hldg
1.52%
15%
1,000
Taageer Fin
2.31%
Fin Service
10% 12.35%
500
10.19%
0
4.43%
5.60%
Bank Muscat
Renaissance
Nawras
Omantel
5%
Al Sharqia Inv Hldg
0%
Al Hassan Eng
Al Anwar Cer
Volume Leaders‐ Weekly
MSM Sectoral Market cap for the week
3,500
Other Services, 8.5%
24%
21%
2,500
18%
2,000
15%
16.78%
Power Utilities, 2.1%
12%
1,500
6%
6.85%
6.67%
6.40%
Transgulf Inv Hldg
Bank Sohar
Al Anwar Cer
6.24%
0
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Leasing, 2.3%
Renaissance
Source: MSM, GBCM Research
Investments, 4.5%
Oil Marketing, 6.1%
3% 0%
Bank Muscat
Banking, 38.7%
Telecom, 18.2%
9% 1,000
‐9.83% ‐10.60%
500
‐8.90% ‐9.62%
ONIC
3,000
‐8.33%
Gulf Int Chem
Other Insurance, Industry, 0.9% 10.1% Engg & Brokerage, Const., 2.3% Cement, 5.7% 0.5%
Source: MSM, GBCM Research
Weekly Market Monitor
GBCM Research
MSM – Value Indicators
Oman ‐ Weekly News watch…
Mkt. Cap (In RO’000s)
PER
P/BV
Dividend Yield (%)
MSM 30
5,345,023
10.9
1.7
5.1%
Financial
2,877,962
11.9
1.4
3.6%
Industrial
829,832
12.6
1.5
5.8%
2,088,582
9.5
2.1
6.8%
Value Indicators
Service
Source: MSM, GBCM Research
Bank Muscat SAOG raised US$ 300 million from a three‐year term loan to fund its business. The debt pays interest at 150 basis points more than the London interbank offered rate. Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Commerzbank, Credit Agricole CIB, HSBC Holdings Plc, Standard Chartered Plc and Wells Fargo & Co. arranged the transaction. (Source: Bloomberg)
GCC‐ Market Performance for the week 2.00%
1.00%
0.50%
0.00% ‐2.00%
‐0.50% ‐1.00%
‐1.50%
‐8.00% ‐10.00%
‐2.00%
‐2.50%
‐12.00% ‐14.00%
Oman
‐3.00%
Saudi
UAE (DFM)
UAE (Abu Dhabi)
Kuwait
Qatar
Bahrain
YTD
‐14.74%
‐2.97%
‐5.48%
‐1.80%
‐12.79%
‐2.20%
‐10.56%
WTD
‐1.53%
‐0.33%
2.33%
1.63%
0.50%
1.36%
‐1.34%
Source: Zawya, GBCM Research
GCC ‐ Weekly News watch…
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Dubai Islamic Bank, or DIB, announced its first‐half net profit rose 10% to Dhs 552 million due to a sharp increase in customer deposits despite higher provisions. The customer deposits stood at Dhs 77.6 billion as of June 30, reflecting a 22% increase from December 31, while total assets rose 14% to Dhs 102.9 billion during the same period. (Source: Gulf Base) Zain Group posted a net income of KD 140.2 million (US$ 506.5 million) for the first half of this year, a 17% increase over the same period last year. The group recorded consolidated revenue of KD 659.4 million, reflecting a positive 2% increase on the same period in H1‐2010. (Source: Trade Arabia) Masraf Al Rayan has reported a 14% growth in its net profit to QR 691 million in the first six months of this year. EPS reached QAR0.92, compared with QAR0.81 in the first six months of 2010. Total assets amounted to QAR48.93 billion at the end of June, up from QAR29.07 billion in the same period last year. Total shareholder equity rose by 20% YoY to QAR7.82 billion. The customer deposits rose 84% to QAR40.6 billion during the period under review. (Source: Zawya, Gulf Base)
0.00%
‐4.00% ‐6.00%
Oman Investment & Finance announced net profit of RO 663K for the three months ended June 2011 as against RO 664K in the same period last year. (Source: MSM)
Ahli Bank announced net profit of RO 8.70 million for the six months ended June 2011 as against RO 6.76 million in the same period last year. The Bank’s total assets as at the end of June 2011 reached RO 880 Million representing a growth of 37% from June 2010. (Source: MSM) Oman International Bank announced net profit of RO 8.376 million for the six months ended June 2011 as against RO 9.225 million in the same period last year. (Source: MSM)
Weekly Market Monitor
GBCM Research
Crude Oil Performance (One Year)
Weekly ‐ Commodities Tracker… 125
125
115 105
115
105
95 85
95 85
75 65 55 45
Oil prices spent much of the day in negative territory, gripped by fears about the weak global recovery, but an afternoon rally in the equities market was enough to power crude futures to a positive finish.
75 65
30‐Jul‐10
Crude Oil Crude oil futures prices finished slightly higher on the last trading day, after signs of progress in Europe's debt crisis vaulted markets into positive territory late in the day.
55 45 20‐Sep‐10
11‐Nov‐10
2‐Jan‐11
World Crude
23‐Feb‐11
16‐Apr‐11
7‐Jun‐11
29‐Jul‐11
Light, sweet crude for September delivery settled up 0.3% to $86.88 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude settled up 2% to $109.37 a barrel. Nymex crude futures fell 9.2% this week, wiping out all of the year's previous gains (Sources: Reuters)
Oman Crude
Gold ‐ YTD Performance (YTD)
Gold
Gold prices settled lower as investors toyed with safe assets amid mounting fears of a global downturn but ultimately opted for stocks after Italy agreed to reforms that will pave the way for the European Central Bank to begin purchasing Italian and Spanish bonds.
Copper ‐ Performance (One Year)
Reuters)
Copper Copper extended its losses Friday, as concerns about U.S. growth and government debt problems in Europe overshadowed a better‐than‐expected U.S. jobs report.
The most actively traded contract, for September delivery, settled down 2.8% at $4.1170 a pound on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange.
Adding to the downbeat tone, workers at the world's largest copper mine, Escondida in northern Chile, reached a wage deal Friday. The 15‐day long strike had stalled copper output, sparking concern about global supply and giving copper prices a boost. (Sources: WSJ, Reuters)
Source: KITCO, EIA, GBCM Research
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Gold prices closed lower at $ 1,651.8 on the last trading day after a roller coaster day as stocks see‐sawed despite a better‐than‐expected read on the labor market for July. (Sources: The Street,
Weekly Market Monitor
GBCM Research
Disclaimer: This document has been prepared and issued by GULF BAADER CAPITAL MARKETS SAOC ("the Company") on the basis of publicly available information, internally developed data and other sources believed to be reliable. While all care has been taken to ensure that the facts stated are accurate and the opinions given are reasonable, neither GULF BAADER CAPITAL MARKETS SAOC nor any employee shall be in anyway responsible for the contents of this report. The Company may have a position and may perform buying/selling for itself or its clients in any security mentioned in this report. This is not an offer to buy or sell the investments referred therein.
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