VeraSun Energy Corporation Lehman Brothers CEO Energy / Power Conference September 6, 2007
AMERICA THROUGH RENEWABLE FUELS
Forward-Looking Statements Certain statements in this presentation, and other written or oral statements made by or on behalf of us, are “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of the federal securities laws. Statements regarding future events and developments and our future performance, including statements regarding the extraction of oil from distillers grains, expected completion of our facilities, the commencement of our ethanol marketing efforts and expectations concerning our ability to finance our growth plans, as well as management’s expectations, anticipations, beliefs, plans, targets, estimates, or projections and similar expressions relating to the future, are forwardlooking statements within the meaning of these laws. These statements are based on assumptions and assessments made by our management in light of their experience and their perception of historical trends, current conditions, expected future developments and other factors they believe to be appropriate. Any forward-looking statements are not guarantees of our future performance and are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results, developments and business decisions to differ materially from those contemplated by any forward-looking statements. We disclaim any duty to update any forward-looking statements. Some of the factors that may cause actual results, developments and business decisions to differ materially from those contemplated by any forward-looking statements include the volatility and uncertainty of corn, natural gas, ethanol and unleaded gasoline prices; our ability to develop an oil extraction business; the completion of our pending acquisition; the results of our hedging transactions and other risk mitigation strategies; operational disruptions at our facilities; our ability to implement our expansion strategy as planned or at all; our ability to locate and integrate potential future acquisitions; development of infrastructure related to the sale and distribution of ethanol; our limited operating history; excess production capacity in our industry; our ability to compete effectively in our industry; our ability to implement a marketing and sales network for our ethanol; changes in or elimination of governmental laws, tariffs, trade or other controls or enforcement practices; environmental, health and safety laws, regulations and liabilities; our reliance on key management personnel; future technological advances; limitations and restrictions contained in the instruments and agreements governing our indebtedness; our ability to raise additional capital and secure additional financing; and costs of construction and equipment, as more fully described in the "Risk Factors" section of our reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
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VeraSun Snapshot • •
• •
Largest independent ethanol producer in the U.S., with 6% of the domestic market Leadership shown through our firsts: – First 100 mmgpy greenfield dry grind ethanol plant; – First to self-market substantial internal production; – First to introduce branded E85 product, in partnership with Ford and GM; – First to extract corn oil from DDGS for re-sale (Aurora plant 2008); – Among first to widely employ unit train strategy; – Among first to explore cellulosic opportunities; and – Active role in shaping legislative landscape and end markets 450 MMGY (4 facilities) growing to 1,000 MMGY (9 facilities) by 4Q08 Proven track record of building, operating, de-bottlenecking and expanding ethanol plants and delivering results “through the cycle”
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Industry Update
Ethanol Supply and Demand
(1) Source: RFA, August 2007 (2) Includes 5.9 billion gallons of ethanol capacity under construction (Source: BBI, July 2007) (3) Calculated as 10% of the projected 2015 gasoline market of 163.0 billion gallons (Source: EIA, 2006) (4) Calculated assuming 600 gallons of ethanol used each year per FFV and 20% mileage loss compared to conventional gasoline. FFV count assumes increase in annual production to 2 million FFV’s per year by 2012.
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Multiple “Legs” of the Gasoline Market Continue to Underpin Ethanol Demand Positive Demand Outlook…
RFG Conventional RFS
= = = = =
Current Capacity as of 8/29/07 (Source: RFA website) Capacity Under Construction (Source: BBI, July 2007) Environmental Blending (Required) Octane Boost Blending (Discretionary) Federal Ethanol Blend Mandates
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Ethanol Prices Historically Track Above Gasoline
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Senate Proposes Increasing RFS
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Refiners Recognize Economic Benefit Of Ethanol
(1) (2)
•
Refiners able to produce suboctane blend stock (about 84 octane) (2) – Improves refinery output
•
Adding ethanol – Increases octane – Expands fuel – Reduces emissions
•
Ethanol viewed as a strategic blend component
Source: EIA, 2006, total refinery capacity has increased from 16.1 million barrels per day in 1984 to 17.3 million barrels per day in 2006. Results vary by refinery, gasoline specification and market.
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Increased Corn Production Supports Increased Ethanol Production •
USDA projects crop at 13.1 billion bushels this year – Ethanol production accounts for 17%
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USDA believes the US corn supply can accommodate up to 18 BGY of ethanol with corn prices in the $3.00 - $3.75 area
Corn Ethanol Production
Sources: • Testimony of Alexander Karsner, Assistant Secretary, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, before the Committee on Environment and Public Works United States Senate. • USDA Long-term Projections, February 2007.
2006
2007
Corn Acreage Yield per acre Corn production
75.0 150 11,250
85.4 153 13,054
% consumed by ethanol
13.8%
17.7%
Corn used in ethanol production
1,552
2,310
Gallons per bushel Ethanol production (MMGY)
2.9 4.5
2.9 6.7
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Corn Prices Expected to Decline as Production Increases
Updated as of 8/28/07
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Sales of Distillers Grains Co-Product are a Credible Hedge
Updated as of 8/28/07
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VeraSun Energy Corporation
Large Scale and Low Cost Strategy
Accelerated Growth One Billion Gallons by End of 2008 (5)
(4)
(4)
(3)
(2)
(1)
(1) (2)
Expected startup in Q3 2007 Expected startup in Q4 2007
(3) (4)
Expected startup in Q1 2008 Expected startup in Q2 2008
(5)
Expected startup in Q4 2008
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Capital Projects on Schedule
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Nearly 300% Capacity Growth Over Next Six Quarters
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Plants Located In Low Cost Corn Areas Access to abundant supplies at prices $0.20 to $0.30 below national average
+ 80¢
+ $1.10 + 68¢ + 65¢
+ 65¢ (1)
Source for corn prices: FCStone, LLC, 2006; determined using the basis differential to the Chicago Board of Trade over a five-year period (2001 – 2006): Midwest $(0.15); Pacific Northwest $0.65; California $1.10; Panhandle $0.50; Gulf $0.50; Southeast $0.53.
(2)
Top ten corn producing states (five-year average): IA, IL, NE, MN, IN, SD, KS, WI, OH, MS; source: NASS (USDA), 2006.
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VeraSun Continues to Choose Sites Based on Low Cost Corn…
18 Source: DTN Database
Illustrative Example: Chart represents cash corn cost as of 08/28/07 based on $3.27 CBOT price.
VeraSun’s “Virtual Pipeline”
HIGH
+ $1.48 AVERAGE
+ $0.16
HIGH
+ $0.85 AVERAGE
+ $0.13 HIGH
+ $0.68 AVERAGE
+ $0.11 19 Source for ethanol prices: OPIS, 2006; determined using the highest differential from Chicago ethanol price from January 2006 through December 2006.
Unit Train Strategy Lowers Transportation Costs Made Possible by Plant Size
Assumption: Ethanol plants are unit train capable at 80 mmgpy of nameplate capacity
Source: RFA Website
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…and Represents Meaningful Savings
Rates subject to change
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Corn Oil Extraction Corn Oil Extraction What Are We Doing?
Why Are We Doing It?
• • •
Innovative process allows for extraction of corn oil from DDGS Extracting 150–175 lbs of corn oil from each ton of DDGS Aurora plant will be our first extraction installation with production targeted to begin in 2008
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Superior economics: ROIC between 25% and 40%, incremental EBITDA between $0.05 and $0.10 per gallon Reduce cyclicality of results Improves DDGS penetration Current selling price for oil in the range of $0.20–$0.30 per pound
• • • •
How Are We Doing It? •
Phase I: Install in Aurora, SD and operational by the end of 2008 Phase II: Install in Fort Dodge and Charles City and operational by the end of 2009
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Production Facilities
VERASUN AURORA
VERASUN FORT DODGE
23 VERASUN CHARLES CITY
The VeraSun Advantage
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August 2007
Kroger Becomes First National Retailer to Sell VeraSun’s Branded E85 at 20 Fueling Locations in Ohio and Kentucky July 2007
VeraSun Energy and Enterprise Rent-A-Car Announce Initiative to Expand E85 Use will Concentrate Enterprise’s FlexFuel Vehicles Near Strategic VE85™ Fueling Locations 2005 - 2007
© 2006 General Motors Corporation
VeraSun and General Motors Collaborate to Bring E85 Ethanol-Based Fuel to Major Metropolitan Markets –Chicago, Minneapolis, Pittsburgh, Washington, DC 2006
VeraSun, Ford Open Industry-First Ethanol Corridor In America's Heartland © 2006 Ford Motor Company
Increased pledge to 50% of annual production becoming E-85 or biodiesel compatible by 2012, pending sufficient infrastructure
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SECOND QUARTER FISCAL YEAR 2007 RESULTS
Second Quarter Highlights •
Financial results in Q2 2007 – Diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.19 share – Net income of $15.1MM, or 8.9 percent of revenues – Revenues of $169.6MM, up $16.0MM compared to Q2 2006 – Cash on hand was $663.9MM, including $249.5MM of designated cash – EBITDA of $33.0MM, or 19.5 percent of revenues – Ethanol shipped increased to 63.4MM gallons, or 11 percent over the 2006 period
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Solid operational performance – Exceptional safety record – Zero federal reportable spills or releases – Production was 81.5MM gallons, a 43.6 percent increase over Q2 2006 – June production was 105.0% of nameplate capacity
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Revenue Growth Continues
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Capacity Grows to 140 Million Gallons at Year End
29 Assumes ASAlliances acquisition is completed Q3 & Q4 are projected
Improving Gross Margins Driven by Lower Corn Costs
30 (1) Ethanol COGS = COGS less Distillers Revenues
Operating Metrics
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Financial Performance ($ in Millions except EPS data)
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Financial Metrics
LTM Based on latest public filings available as of August 1, 2007. Source: Data included in public earnings releases and SEC filings.
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VeraSun Energy Corporation
AMERICA THROUGH RENEWABLE FUELS
APPENDIX
Net Income to EBITDA Reconciliation ($ in Thousands)
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STRAIGHT TALK ON KEY ISSUES
Food vs. Fuel
Increase from Jan. 06 to Mar. 07 is 2.1% Average Yearly Food Inflation is 2.9% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, National Corn Growers
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Energy Balance • Eight of nine different groups that have studied the issue have concluded ethanol produces a positive energy balance • USDA with Argonne National Labs concluded ethanol yields 34% BTU improvement • Ethanol yields 6 BTU’s for every BTU of liquid fossil fuel • Ethanol energy yield increases as farming practices and ethanol production processes improve
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