The views expressed in this publication are made on the basis of a 2-4 week outlook and may differ from our longer term views and forecasts from the Global Research function
fx strategy fx | 20 January 2014
US Dollar Makes a Comeback
Contents
•
The US dollar gained over the previous week, most prominently against the AUD and the EUR.
US Dollar Makes a Comeback
1
EUR/USD
2
In the short term, further USD strength is likely to depend on US economic activity data and any policy signals around the next round of Fed tapering.
USD/JPY
3
AUD/USD
4
USD/SGD
5
•
EUR/USD
GBP/USD
6
•
XAU/USD
7
SUPPLEMENTARY PAIRS
8
We turn bearish on the EUR/USD pair (from bullish earlier) as last week’s negative weekly close signals a trend reversal, in our view.
Interest Rate Differentials
10
USD/JPY
FX Implied Volatility
10
•
Disclosure Appendix
12
We remain neutral on the USD/JPY pair as we believe the pair is likely to consolidate in the short term.
AUD/USD •
We turn bearish on the AUD/USD (from neutral earlier) after it broke below a key support, signaling further downside ahead.
Weekly performance of pairs 10 January 2014 to 17 January 2014 EUR/USD
USD/SGD
USD/JPY
•
AUD/USD -2.38
We turn bullish on the USD/SGD pair (from bearish earlier) and expect the recent reversal up to extend further.
We remain neutral on the GBP/USD pair as momentum remains weak.
USD/S GD
0.95 -0.36
XAU/USD
0.44
-2.80 -2.30 -1.80 -1.30 -0.80 -0.30 0.20 0.70 1.20 %
Source: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered
XAU/USD •
0.13
GBP /USD
GBP/USD •
-0.94
We remain bullish on the XAU/USD pair as momentum indicators suggest the current rebound may extend a little further.
Pairs
Outlook (2-4 wk)
EUR/USD USD/JPY AUD/USD USD/SGD GBP/USD XAU/USD USD/CNH* USD/ZAR* NZD/USD* USD/CHF* USD/SEK* USD/CAD*
Bearish Neutral Bearish Bullish Neutral Bullish Bearish Bullish Neutral Bullish Bearish Bullish
Secondary Sup 1.340 102.40 0.844 1.262 1.612 1100 5.975 10.010 0.790 0.872 6.186 1.070
Primary Sup 1.348 103.30 0.865 1.267 1.629 1180 6.000 10.592 0.808 0.888 6.304 1.086
Steve Brice
Chief Investment Strategist
Rob Aspin, CFA
Head, Equity Investment Strategy
Manpreet Gill
Head, FICC Investment Strategy
Adi Monappa, CFA
Head, Asset Allocation
Audrey Goh, CFA
Investment Strategist
Victor Teo, CFA
Investment Strategist
Spot 1.354 104.29 0.877 1.276 1.642 1253 6.022 10.861 0.825 0.909 6.466 1.096
Primary Res 1.366 105.75 0.912 1.280 1.658 1290 6.042 11.000 0.843 0.912 6.663 1.110
Secondary Res 1.376 107.50 0.937 1.288 1.675 1380 6.069 11.224 0.862 0.930 6.718 1.126
*SUPPLEMENTARY PAIRS - Going forward, we will maintain the EUR, JPY, AUD, SGD, GBP and XAU outlook while adding just key technical levels for the supplementary pairs
This commentary reflects the views of the Wealth Management Group of Standard Chartered Bank. This is not a research report and has not been produced by a research unit. Important disclosures can be found in the Disclosures Appendix.
1
fx strategy | 20 January 2014 Key technical indicators and forecast
EUR/USD We turn bearish on the EUR/USD pair (from bullish earlier) as last week’s negative weekly close signals a trend reversal, in our view.
Technical Indicator
Action
RSI (14)
Sell
Oscillator (5,10)
Sell
Performance
MACD (12,26,9)
Sell
•
ADX (14)
Neutral
Momentum (14)
Sell
•
The EUR/USD was down (-0.94%) over the previous week as the dismal US employment report left investors assessing the impact of tapering. Also, housing sales began to moderate after touching new highs while industrial output continued to rise. EU Industrial Production was better than expected.
Key Levels
Level
Importance
Technical Analysis
Secondary Resistance
1.376
High
•
Major technical indicators are largely bearish.
Primary Resistance
1.366
Neutral
•
We turn bearish on the EUR/USD pair (from bullish earlier). The 100 DMA and key primary support levels were broken convincingly last week. Also, the negative weekly close indicates the uptrend may have become exhausted, which signals weakness ahead.
Spot
1.354
–
Primary Support
1.348
Neutral
Secondary Support
1.340
High
•
We would review our outlook if it recovers above 1.366. Forecast
Key Signposts •
•
Europe – Manufacturing and Services PMI (23 January) and Consumer Confidence (23 January) are some economic indicators to watch during the week. US – Initial jobless claims (23 January), Manufacturing PMI (23 January) and Existing Home Sales (23 January) are the key releases during the week.
Consensus
Q1 2014
1.34
Q2 2014
1.31
Q3 2014
1.30
Q4 2014
1.28
* Please see Appendix on Pg 11 for explanation on technicals Source: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered
The pair appears to be facing significant resistance Technical Analysis Chart: EUR/USD (Daily)
1.39 1.37
1.366
EUR/USD
1.35 1.348
1.33 1.31 1.29 1.27
50 dma 1.363
1.25 1.23 Dec-12
Jan-13 EUR/USD
Mar-13
Apr-13 50 dma
Jun-13
Jul-13
Sep-13 100 dma
100 dma 1.3568
Oct-13
200 dma 1.3352
Dec-13
Jan-14
200 dma
Source: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered
This reflects the views of the Wealth Management Group
2
fx strategy | 20 January 2014 Key technical indicators and forecast
USD/JPY
Technical Indicator
Action
We remain neutral on the USD/JPY pair as we believe the pair is likely to consolidate in the short term.
RSI (14)
Buy
Oscillator (5,10)
Sell
Performance
MACD (12,26,9)
Buy
•
ADX (14)
Neutral
Momentum (14)
Neutral
USD/JPY ended up (0.13%) over the previous week as Japanese current account data was worse than expected and the Tertiary Industry Index declined.
Technical Analysis • •
•
Major technical indicators, on balance, are neutral to bullish.
Key Levels
Level
Importance
We remain neutral on the USD/JPY pair as earlier strong momentum indicators have moderated. We continue to observe the pair closely to gauge if the consolidation is short-lived or the beginning of a more pronounced correction. However, we continue to believe there is further upside to the pair in the longer run.
Secondary Resistance
107.50
Low
Primary Resistance
105.75
High
Spot
104.29
–
Primary Support
103.30
Neutral
Secondary Support
104.40
Neutral
We would review our outlook if the pair falls below 103.30 or recovers above 105.75. Forecast
Key Signposts •
Industrial Production (20 January) is the key data point due for release in the coming week.
Consensus
Q1 2014
105
Q2 2014
107
Q3 2014
108
Q4 2014
110
* Please see Appendix on Pg 11 for explanation on technical Source: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered
USD/JPY in a consolidation Technical Analysis Chart: USD/JPY (Daily)
105.75
107 103
103.30
USD/JPY
99 95 91 87
50 dma 103.06
100 dma 100.77
200 dma 99.86
83 79 75 Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13 Mar-13 USD/JPY
Apr-13
May-13 50 dma
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
100 dma
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
200 dma
Source: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered
This reflects the views of the Wealth Management Group
3
fx strategy | 20 January 2014 Key technical indicators and forecast
AUD/USD
Technical Indicator
Action
We turn bearish on the AUD/USD (from neutral earlier) after it broke below a key support, signaling further downside ahead.
RSI (14)
Sell
Oscillator (5,10)
Neutral
Performance
MACD (12,26,9)
Sell
•
ADX (14)
Neutral
Momentum (14)
Sell
AUD/USD was down sharply (-2.38%) over the previous week as the weak Australian employment report weighed heavily on the pair.
Technical Analysis • •
•
Major technical indicators are bearish.
Key Levels
Level
Importance
We turn bearish on the AUD/USD pair (from neutral earlier) as it broke key support at 0.885, which signals the downtrend is still in progress. We are mindful this is an increasingly crowded trade. On balance, however, we believe the pair is likely to face more downside in the near term before it begins to recover.
Secondary Resistance
0.937
High
Primary Resistance
0.912
Neutral
Spot
0.877
–
Primary Support
0.865
Neutral
Secondary Support
0.844
High
We would review our outlook if the pair rebounds above 0.912.
Key Signposts •
Chinese GDP (20 January), Chinese Industrial Production (20 January), CPI (22 January) and Chinese HSBC Manufacturing PMI (23 January) are some key data points due in the coming week.
Forecast
Consensus
Q1 2014
0.88
Q2 2014
0.87
Q3 2014
0.87
Q4 2014
0.86
* Please see Appendix on Pg 11 for explanation on technical Source: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered
AUD/USD remains on a weak footing Technical Analysis Chart: AUD/USD (Daily)
1.11 50 dma 0.9035
AUD/USD
1.06
100 dma 0.9229
200 dma 0.9355
1.01
0.96 0.912 0.91 0.865 0.86 Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13 Mar-13
AUD/USD
Apr-13
May-13 50 dma
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
100 dma
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
200 dma
Source: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered
This reflects the views of the Wealth Management Group
4
fx strategy | 20 January 2014 Key technical indicators and forecast
USD/SGD
Technical Indicator
Action
We turn bullish on the USD/SGD pair (from bearish earlier) and expect the recent reversal up to extend further.
RSI (14)
Buy
Oscillator (5,10)
Overbought
Performance
MACD (12,26,9)
Neutral
•
ADX (14)
Buy
Momentum (14)
Buy
USD/SGD was up (0.95%) against the previous week as Singapore retail sales figures continued to decline.
Technical Analysis •
Major technical indicators are bullish, on balance.
•
We turn bullish on the USD/SGD pair (from bearish earlier) as we believe the reversal from the November 2013 lows is likely to extend higher. Also, the broader chart structure confirms a solid rounding bottom, which is usually considered a strong reversal signal for the longer-term trend.
•
We would review our outlook if the pair falls below 1.256.
Key Levels
Level
Importance
Secondary Resistance
1.288
High
Primary Resistance
1.280
Neutral
Spot
1.275
–
Primary Support
1.267
Neutral
Secondary Support
1.262
High
Key Signposts •
Industrial Production (24 January) is the main data release scheduled this week.
Forecast
Consensus
Q1 2014
1.26
Q2 2014
1.27
Q3 2014
1.28
Q4 2014
1.27
* Please see Appendix on Pg 11 for explanation on technical Source: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered
USD/SGD continues to trend up Technical Analysis Chart: USD/SGD (Daily)
1.30 1.29
50 dma 1.2595
1.280
100 dma 1.2552
200 dma 1.2575
USD/SGD
1.28 1.267
1.27 1.26 1.25 1.24 1.23 1.22 1.21 Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13 Mar-13
USD/SGD
Apr-13
May-13 50 dma
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
100 dma
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
200 dma
Source: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered
This reflects the views of the Wealth Management Group
5
fx strategy | 20 January 2014 Key technical indicators and forecast
GBP/USD
Technical Indicator
Action
We remain neutral on the GBP/USD pair as momentum remains weak.
RSI (14)
Neutral
Oscillator (5,10)
Sell
Performance
MACD (12,26,9)
Neutral
•
ADX (14)
Neutral
Momentum (14)
Sell
GBP/USD was down (-0.36%) over the previous week after stronger than expected retail sales data surprised markets.
Technical Analysis •
Major technical indicators are neutral to bearish.
•
We remain neutral on the GBP/USD pair. We expect the pair to remain resilient and defend support at 1.629. However, despite some moderation to overbought conditions, we believe momentum is still quite weak. We would review our outlook if the pair breaks 1.675 decisively or falls below 1.629.
Key Signposts •
CBI Industrial Trends Order (21 January), Average Earnings Index, Claimant Count Change, Monetary Policy meeting minutes, the Unemployment Rate (22 January) and BBA Mortgage Approvals (24 January) are some of the main data releases this week.
Key Levels
Level
Importance
Secondary Resistance
1.675
High
Primary Resistance
1.658
Neutral
Spot
1.642
–
Primary Support
1.629
High
Secondary Support
1.612
Neutral
Forecast
Consensus
Q1 2014
1.62
Q2 2014
1.62
Q3 2014
1.60
Q4 2014
1.59
* Please see Appendix on Pg 11 for explanation on technical Source: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered
GBP/USD momentum remains weak Technical Analysis Chart: GBP/USD (Daily)
1.68
50 dma 1.6334
1.658
1.66
100 dma 1.6167
200 dma 1.5765
1.64
GBP/USD
1.62
1.629
1.60 1.58 1.56 1.54 1.52 1.50 1.48 Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13 Mar-13
GBP/USD
Apr-13
May-13 50 dma
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
100 dma
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
200 dma
Source: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered
This reflects the views of the Wealth Management Group
6
fx strategy | 20 January 2014 Key technical indicators and forecast
XAU/USD
Technical Indicator
Action
We remain bullish on the XAU/USD pair as momentum indicators suggest the current rebound may extend a little further.
RSI (14)
Buy
Oscillator (5,10)
Buy
Performance
MACD (12,26,9)
Neutral
•
ADX (14)
Neutral
Momentum (14)
Buy
XAU/USD was up (0.44%) over the previous week as global equities consolidated at the start of the new year following a strong rally in 2013.
Technical Analysis •
•
Major technical indicators are neutral to bullish.
Key Levels
Level
Importance
We remain bullish on the XAU/USD pair. We believe major momentum technical indicators are pointing to the likelihood of the rebound extending a little further in the short term. However, longer term we continue to believe that the broader trend is bearish.
Secondary Resistance
1,290
High
Primary Resistance
1,276
Neutral
Spot
1,253
–
Primary Support
1,210
High
Secondary Support
1,180
Neutral
We would review our outlook if the pair falls below 1,180.
Key Signposts •
•
This short-term view should be viewed within the context of our longer-term Underweight view on gold. Continued tapering of Fed asset purchases and rising opportunity costs provided by equity market resilience and higher yields are likely to continue working against gold, in our view.
Forecast
Ongoing global central bank purchases, retail demand and geopolitical tensions pose risks to our view.
Consensus
Q1 2014
1,250.0
Q2 2014
1,212.0
Q3 2014
1,200.0
Q4 2014
1,212.5
* Please see Appendix on Pg 11 for explanation on technical Source: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered
Technical indicators support an extension of the current rebound Technical Analysis Chart: XAU/USD (Daily)
1,800 50 dma 1236.93
1,700
100 dma 1282.28
200 dma 1320.73
XAU/USD
1,600 1,500 1,400 1,290
1,300
1,180
1,200 1,100 Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13 Mar-13
XAU/USD
Apr-13 May-13 50 dma
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
100 dma
Oct-13
Nov-13 Dec-13
Jan-14
200 dma
Source: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered
This reflects the views of the Wealth Management Group
7
fx strategy | 20 January 2014
SUPPLEMENTARY PAIRS *SUPPLEMENTARY PAIRS – Going forward, we will maintain the EUR, JPY, AUD, SGD, GBP and XAU outlook while adding just key technical levels for the supplementary pairs We remain bearish on the USD/CNH Technical Analysis: USD/CNH
6.40
50 dma 6.0632
6.35
100 dma 6.0821
200 dma 6.1097
USD/CNH
6.30 6.25 6.20 6.15 6.10 6.042
6.05 6.00 5.95 Dec-12
6.000 Jan-13
Feb-13 Mar-13
Apr-13
USD/CNH
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
50 dma
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
100 dma
Dec-13
Jan-14
200 dma
Source: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered
We remain bullish on the USD/ZAR Technical Analysis: USD/ZAR
11.4
11.000
11.0
USD/ZAR
10.6 10.592
10.2 9.8 9.4
50 dma 10.4254
9.0 8.6
100 dma 10.2022
200 dma 9.9845
8.2 7.8 Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13 Mar-13
Apr-13
USD/ZAR
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
50 dma
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
100 dma
Dec-13
Jan-14
200 dma
Source: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered
We remain neutral on the NZD/USD Technical Analysis: NZD/USD
0.87 0.843
0.85
NZD/USD
0.83 0.81 0.81
0.79 0.77
50 dma 0.8245
0.75 0.73 Nov-11
Jan-12
Mar-12
NZD/USD
May-12
Jul-12
Sep-12 50 dma
Nov-12
100 dma 0.8256
Jan-13
200 dma 0.8149
Mar-13
May-13
100 dma
Jul-13
Sep-13
Nov-13
200 dma
Source: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered
This reflects the views of the Wealth Management Group
8
fx strategy | 20 January 2014 We remain bullish on the USD/CHF Technical Analysis: USD/CHF
1.01
50 dma 0.9018
0.99
100 dma 0.9072
200 dma 0.9235
USD/CHF
0.97 0.95 0.93 0.91
0.912
0.89 0.888
0.87 0.85 Mar-12
May-12
Jul-12
Sep-12
USD/CHF
Nov-12
Jan-13
Mar-13
May-13
50 dma
Jul-13
Sep-13
100 dma
Nov-13
Jan-14
200 dma
Source: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered
We turn bearish on the USD/SEK (from bullish earlier) Technical Analysis: USD/SEK
7.4 50 dma 6.5457
USD/SEK
7.2
100 dma 6.503
200 dma 6.5412
7.0 6.8
6.663
6.6 6.4 6.2 Mar-12
6.304 May-12
Jul-12
Sep-12
USD/SEK
Nov-12
Jan-13
Mar-13
50 dma
May-13
Jul-13
100 dma
Sep-13
Nov-13
Jan-14
200 dma
Source: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered
We remain bullish on the USD/CAD Technical Analysis: USD/CAD
1.11
1.12 1.10
USD/CAD
1.08
1.086
1.06 1.04 1.02 1.00
50 dma 1.0653
0.98 0.96 Nov-11
Jan-12
Mar-12
USD/CAD
May-12
Jul-12
Sep-12 50 dma
Nov-12
Jan-13
Mar-13
May-13
100 dma
Jul-13
100 dma 1.0511
Sep-13
200 dma 1.0416
Nov-13
Jan-14
200 dma
Source: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered
This reflects the views of the Wealth Management Group
9
fx strategy | 20 January 2014
Interest Rate Differentials
FX Implied Volatility
Measures the yield of holding the foreign currency relative to the base currency
An appropriate indicator used to gauge future expectations of price movements based on FX options market pricing
EUR/USD
EUR/USD 1. 7
19
2.0
1. 6
17
1. 5
15
%
1.5
1. 4
1.0
1. 3
0.5 0.0 -0.5 May-08
May-09
May-10
May-11
May-12
Difference between EUR and USD 2 yr swap
EUR/USD
2.5
9
1. 1
7
1. 0
5 Jan-11
May-13
115
25
105
20
95
1.5 1.0
85
0.5
Jan-13
Jul-13
Jan-14
May-10
May-11
May-12
Jul-13
Jan-14
Jul-13
Jan-14
Jul-13
Jan-14
Jul-13
Jan-14
15 10
75 May-09
Difference between USD and JPY 2 yr swap
5 Jan-11
May-13
Jul-11
Jan-12
USD/JPY (RHS)
Jul-12
Jan-13
2W Implied Volatility
AUD/USD
AUD/USD
6
1. 2
5
1. 1
25 21
0. 9
3
0. 8
2
0. 7
1
AUD/USD
1. 0
4 %
Jul-12
2W Implied Volatility
USD/JPY
%
2.0
0. 5 May-09
May-10
May-11
May-12
Difference between AUD and USD 2 yr swap
13
5 Jan-11
May-13
Jul-11
Jan-12
AUD/USD (RHS)
Jul-12
Jan-13
2W Implied Volatility
USD/SGD
USD/SGD
1. 0
1. 65
17.0
1. 55
14.5
1. 45 0. 5 1. 35 0. 0
May-09
May-10
May-11
May-12
Difference between USD and SGD 2 yr swap
USD/SGD
1. 5
-0.5 May-08
17
9
0. 6
0 May-08
%
Jan-12
USD/JPY
2.5
12.0 9. 5 7. 0
1. 25
4. 5
1. 15
2. 0 Jan-11
May-13
Jul-11
Jan-12
USD/SGD (RHS)
Jul-12
Jan-13
2W Implied Volatility
GBP/USD
GBP/USD 14
1.4
3. 0 2. 5
1. 5
1.8
1. 0 0. 5
2.0 May-09
May-10
May-11
Difference between GBP and USD 2 yr swap
May-12
May-13
GBP/USD
12 1.6
2. 0 %
Jul-11
EUR/USD (RHS)
3.0
0. 0 May-08
11
1. 2
USD/JPY
0.0 May-08
13
10 8 6 4 Jan-11
Jul-11
Jan-12
GBP/USD (RHS)
Jul-12
Jan-13
2W Implied Volatility
Source: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered
This reflects the views of the Wealth Management Group
10
fx strategy | 20 January 2014
TECHNICAL INDICATORS – EXPLANATORY APPENDIX RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI indicators can be used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. An RSI above 70 can indicate a currency pair is overbought while an RSI below 30 can indicate the pair is oversold. Stochastic Oscillator – The Stochastic Oscillator compares where a security's price closed relative to its trading range over a given time period. The security or index is generally considered oversold when the Oscillator falls to 20%, while a reading of 80% is considered overbought. MACD (The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence) – This indicator shows the relationship between two moving averages of prices. A bearish signal is provided when the main moving average line drops below the second moving average line, and vice versa. ADX (Average Directional Index) – This indicator quantifies a trend's strength regardless of whether it is up or down. An index rising above zero provides a bullish signal while an index falling below zero provides a bearish signal. Momentum Indicator – The momentum of a security is the ratio of today's price compared to the price at a given point in the past. If the security's price is higher today, the momentum indicator will be considered strong. If the security's price is lower today, the momentum Indicator will be weak.
This reflects the views of the Wealth Management Group
11
fx strategy | 20 January 2014
Disclosure Appendix This document is not research material and it has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. This document does not necessarily represent the views of every function within the Standard Chartered Bank, particularly those of the Global Research function. Standard Chartered Bank is incorporated in England with limited liability by Royal Charter 1853 Reference Number ZC18. The Principal Office of the Company is situated in England at 1 Basinghall Avenue, London, EC2V 5DD Standard Chartered Bank is authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and Prudential Regulation Authority. In Dubai International Financial Centre (“DIFC”), the attached material is circulated by Standard Chartered Bank DIFC on behalf of the product and/or Issuer. Standard Chartered Bank DIFC is regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (DFSA) and is authorised to provide financial products and services to persons who meet the qualifying criteria of a Professional Client under the DFSA rules. The protection and compensation rights that may generally be available to retail customers in the DIFC or other jurisdictions will not be afforded to Professional Clients in the DIFC. Banking activities may be carried out internationally by different Standard Chartered Bank branches, subsidiaries and affiliates (collectively “SCB”) according to local regulatory requirements. With respect to any jurisdiction in which there is a SCB entity, this document is distributed in such jurisdiction by, and is attributable to, such local SCB entity. Recipients in any jurisdiction should contact the local SCB entity in relation to any matters arising from, or in connection with, this document. Not all products and services are provided by all SCB entities. 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Any forecast contained herein as to likely future movements in rates or prices or likely future events or occurrences constitutes an opinion only and is not indicative of actual future movements in rates or prices or actual future events or occurrences (as the case may be). This document has not and will not be registered as a prospectus in any jurisdiction and it is not authorised by any regulatory authority under any regulations. SCB makes no representation or warranty of any kind, express, implied or statutory regarding, but not limited to, the accuracy of this document or the completeness of any information contained or referred to in this document. This document is distributed on the express understanding that, whilst the information in it is believed to be reliable, it has not been independently verified by us. 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