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The views expressed in this publication are made on the basis of a 2-4 week outlook and may differ from our longer term views and forecasts from the G...
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The views expressed in this publication are made on the basis of a 2-4 week outlook and may differ from our longer term views and forecasts from the Global Research function

fx strategy fx | 20 January 2014

US Dollar Makes a Comeback

Contents



The US dollar gained over the previous week, most prominently against the AUD and the EUR.

US Dollar Makes a Comeback



EUR/USD



In the short term, further USD strength is likely to depend on US economic activity data and any policy signals around the next round of Fed tapering.

USD/JPY



AUD/USD



USD/SGD





EUR/USD

GBP/USD





XAU/USD



SUPPLEMENTARY PAIRS



We turn bearish on the EUR/USD pair (from bullish earlier) as last week’s negative weekly close signals a trend reversal, in our view.

Interest Rate Differentials

10 

USD/JPY

FX Implied Volatility

10 



Disclosure Appendix

12

We remain neutral on the USD/JPY pair as we believe the pair is likely to consolidate in the short term.

AUD/USD •

We turn bearish on the AUD/USD (from neutral earlier) after it broke below a key support, signaling further downside ahead.

Weekly performance of pairs 10 January 2014 to 17 January 2014 EUR/USD

USD/SGD

USD/JPY



AUD/USD -2.38

We turn bullish on the USD/SGD pair (from bearish earlier) and expect the recent reversal up to extend further.

We remain neutral on the GBP/USD pair as momentum remains weak.

USD/S GD

0.95 -0.36

XAU/USD

0.44

-2.80 -2.30 -1.80 -1.30 -0.80 -0.30 0.20 0.70 1.20 %

Source: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered

XAU/USD •

0.13

GBP /USD

GBP/USD •

-0.94

We remain bullish on the XAU/USD pair as momentum indicators suggest the current rebound may extend a little further.

Pairs

Outlook (2-4 wk)

EUR/USD USD/JPY AUD/USD USD/SGD GBP/USD XAU/USD USD/CNH* USD/ZAR* NZD/USD* USD/CHF* USD/SEK* USD/CAD*

Bearish Neutral Bearish Bullish Neutral Bullish Bearish Bullish Neutral Bullish Bearish Bullish

Secondary Sup 1.340 102.40 0.844 1.262 1.612 1100 5.975 10.010 0.790 0.872 6.186 1.070

Primary Sup 1.348 103.30 0.865 1.267 1.629 1180 6.000 10.592 0.808 0.888 6.304 1.086

Steve Brice

Chief Investment Strategist

Rob Aspin, CFA

Head, Equity Investment Strategy

Manpreet Gill

Head, FICC Investment Strategy

Adi Monappa, CFA

Head, Asset Allocation

Audrey Goh, CFA

Investment Strategist

Victor Teo, CFA

Investment Strategist

Spot 1.354 104.29 0.877 1.276 1.642 1253 6.022 10.861 0.825 0.909 6.466 1.096

Primary Res 1.366 105.75 0.912 1.280 1.658 1290 6.042 11.000 0.843 0.912 6.663 1.110

Secondary Res 1.376 107.50 0.937 1.288 1.675 1380 6.069 11.224 0.862 0.930 6.718 1.126

*SUPPLEMENTARY PAIRS - Going forward, we will maintain the EUR, JPY, AUD, SGD, GBP and XAU outlook while adding just key technical levels for the supplementary pairs

This commentary reflects the views of the Wealth Management Group of Standard Chartered Bank. This is not a research report and has not been produced by a research unit. Important disclosures can be found in the Disclosures Appendix.

1

fx strategy | 20 January 2014 Key technical indicators and forecast

EUR/USD We turn bearish on the EUR/USD pair (from bullish earlier) as last week’s negative weekly close signals a trend reversal, in our view.

Technical Indicator

Action

RSI (14)

Sell

Oscillator (5,10)

Sell

Performance

MACD (12,26,9)

Sell



ADX (14)

Neutral

Momentum (14)

Sell



The EUR/USD was down (-0.94%) over the previous week as the dismal US employment report left investors assessing the impact of tapering. Also, housing sales began to moderate after touching new highs while industrial output continued to rise. EU Industrial Production was better than expected.

Key Levels

Level

Importance

Technical Analysis

Secondary Resistance

1.376

High



Major technical indicators are largely bearish.

Primary Resistance

1.366

Neutral



We turn bearish on the EUR/USD pair (from bullish earlier). The 100 DMA and key primary support levels were broken convincingly last week. Also, the negative weekly close indicates the uptrend may have become exhausted, which signals weakness ahead.

Spot

1.354



Primary Support

1.348

Neutral

Secondary Support

1.340

High



We would review our outlook if it recovers above 1.366. Forecast

Key Signposts •



Europe – Manufacturing and Services PMI (23 January) and Consumer Confidence (23 January) are some economic indicators to watch during the week. US – Initial jobless claims (23 January), Manufacturing PMI (23 January) and Existing Home Sales (23 January) are the key releases during the week.

Consensus

Q1 2014

1.34

Q2 2014

1.31

Q3 2014

1.30

Q4 2014

1.28

* Please see Appendix on Pg 11 for explanation on technicals Source: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered

The pair appears to be facing significant resistance Technical Analysis Chart: EUR/USD (Daily)

1.39 1.37

1.366

EUR/USD

1.35 1.348

1.33 1.31 1.29 1.27

50 dma 1.363

1.25 1.23 Dec-12

Jan-13 EUR/USD

Mar-13

Apr-13 50 dma

Jun-13

Jul-13

Sep-13 100 dma

100 dma 1.3568

Oct-13

200 dma 1.3352

Dec-13

Jan-14

200 dma

Source: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered

This reflects the views of the Wealth Management Group

2

fx strategy | 20 January 2014 Key technical indicators and forecast

USD/JPY

Technical Indicator

Action

We remain neutral on the USD/JPY pair as we believe the pair is likely to consolidate in the short term.

RSI (14)

Buy

Oscillator (5,10)

Sell

Performance

MACD (12,26,9)

Buy



ADX (14)

Neutral

Momentum (14)

Neutral

USD/JPY ended up (0.13%) over the previous week as Japanese current account data was worse than expected and the Tertiary Industry Index declined.

Technical Analysis • •



Major technical indicators, on balance, are neutral to bullish.

Key Levels

Level

Importance

We remain neutral on the USD/JPY pair as earlier strong momentum indicators have moderated. We continue to observe the pair closely to gauge if the consolidation is short-lived or the beginning of a more pronounced correction. However, we continue to believe there is further upside to the pair in the longer run.

Secondary Resistance

107.50

Low

Primary Resistance

105.75

High

Spot

104.29



Primary Support

103.30

Neutral

Secondary Support

104.40

Neutral

We would review our outlook if the pair falls below 103.30 or recovers above 105.75. Forecast

Key Signposts •

Industrial Production (20 January) is the key data point due for release in the coming week.

Consensus

Q1 2014

105

Q2 2014

107

Q3 2014

108

Q4 2014

110

* Please see Appendix on Pg 11 for explanation on technical Source: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered

USD/JPY in a consolidation Technical Analysis Chart: USD/JPY (Daily)

105.75

107 103

103.30

USD/JPY

99 95 91 87

50 dma 103.06

100 dma 100.77

200 dma 99.86

83 79 75 Dec-12

Jan-13

Feb-13 Mar-13 USD/JPY

Apr-13

May-13 50 dma

Jun-13

Jul-13

Aug-13

Sep-13

100 dma

Oct-13

Nov-13

Dec-13

Jan-14

200 dma

Source: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered

This reflects the views of the Wealth Management Group

3

fx strategy | 20 January 2014 Key technical indicators and forecast

AUD/USD

Technical Indicator

Action

We turn bearish on the AUD/USD (from neutral earlier) after it broke below a key support, signaling further downside ahead.

RSI (14)

Sell

Oscillator (5,10)

Neutral

Performance

MACD (12,26,9)

Sell



ADX (14)

Neutral

Momentum (14)

Sell

AUD/USD was down sharply (-2.38%) over the previous week as the weak Australian employment report weighed heavily on the pair.

Technical Analysis • •



Major technical indicators are bearish.

Key Levels

Level

Importance

We turn bearish on the AUD/USD pair (from neutral earlier) as it broke key support at 0.885, which signals the downtrend is still in progress. We are mindful this is an increasingly crowded trade. On balance, however, we believe the pair is likely to face more downside in the near term before it begins to recover.

Secondary Resistance

0.937

High

Primary Resistance

0.912

Neutral

Spot

0.877



Primary Support

0.865

Neutral

Secondary Support

0.844

High

We would review our outlook if the pair rebounds above 0.912.

Key Signposts •

Chinese GDP (20 January), Chinese Industrial Production (20 January), CPI (22 January) and Chinese HSBC Manufacturing PMI (23 January) are some key data points due in the coming week.

Forecast

Consensus

Q1 2014

0.88

Q2 2014

0.87

Q3 2014

0.87

Q4 2014

0.86

* Please see Appendix on Pg 11 for explanation on technical Source: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered

AUD/USD remains on a weak footing Technical Analysis Chart: AUD/USD (Daily)

1.11 50 dma 0.9035

AUD/USD

1.06

100 dma 0.9229

200 dma 0.9355

1.01

0.96 0.912 0.91 0.865 0.86 Dec-12

Jan-13

Feb-13 Mar-13

AUD/USD

Apr-13

May-13 50 dma

Jun-13

Jul-13

Aug-13

Sep-13

100 dma

Oct-13

Nov-13

Dec-13

Jan-14

200 dma

Source: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered

This reflects the views of the Wealth Management Group

4

fx strategy | 20 January 2014 Key technical indicators and forecast

USD/SGD

Technical Indicator

Action

We turn bullish on the USD/SGD pair (from bearish earlier) and expect the recent reversal up to extend further.

RSI (14)

Buy

Oscillator (5,10)

Overbought

Performance

MACD (12,26,9)

Neutral



ADX (14)

Buy

Momentum (14)

Buy

USD/SGD was up (0.95%) against the previous week as Singapore retail sales figures continued to decline.

Technical Analysis •

Major technical indicators are bullish, on balance.



We turn bullish on the USD/SGD pair (from bearish earlier) as we believe the reversal from the November 2013 lows is likely to extend higher. Also, the broader chart structure confirms a solid rounding bottom, which is usually considered a strong reversal signal for the longer-term trend.



We would review our outlook if the pair falls below 1.256.

Key Levels

Level

Importance

Secondary Resistance

1.288

High

Primary Resistance

1.280

Neutral

Spot

1.275



Primary Support

1.267

Neutral

Secondary Support

1.262

High

Key Signposts •

Industrial Production (24 January) is the main data release scheduled this week.

Forecast

Consensus

Q1 2014

1.26

Q2 2014

1.27

Q3 2014

1.28

Q4 2014

1.27

* Please see Appendix on Pg 11 for explanation on technical Source: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered

USD/SGD continues to trend up Technical Analysis Chart: USD/SGD (Daily)

1.30 1.29

50 dma 1.2595

1.280

100 dma 1.2552

200 dma 1.2575

USD/SGD

1.28 1.267

1.27 1.26 1.25 1.24 1.23 1.22 1.21 Dec-12

Jan-13

Feb-13 Mar-13

USD/SGD

Apr-13

May-13 50 dma

Jun-13

Jul-13

Aug-13

Sep-13

100 dma

Oct-13

Nov-13

Dec-13

Jan-14

200 dma

Source: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered

This reflects the views of the Wealth Management Group

5

fx strategy | 20 January 2014 Key technical indicators and forecast

GBP/USD

Technical Indicator

Action

We remain neutral on the GBP/USD pair as momentum remains weak.

RSI (14)

Neutral

Oscillator (5,10)

Sell

Performance

MACD (12,26,9)

Neutral



ADX (14)

Neutral

Momentum (14)

Sell

GBP/USD was down (-0.36%) over the previous week after stronger than expected retail sales data surprised markets.

Technical Analysis •

Major technical indicators are neutral to bearish.



We remain neutral on the GBP/USD pair. We expect the pair to remain resilient and defend support at 1.629. However, despite some moderation to overbought conditions, we believe momentum is still quite weak. We would review our outlook if the pair breaks 1.675 decisively or falls below 1.629.

Key Signposts •

CBI Industrial Trends Order (21 January), Average Earnings Index, Claimant Count Change, Monetary Policy meeting minutes, the Unemployment Rate (22 January) and BBA Mortgage Approvals (24 January) are some of the main data releases this week.

Key Levels

Level

Importance

Secondary Resistance

1.675

High

Primary Resistance

1.658

Neutral

Spot

1.642



Primary Support

1.629

High

Secondary Support

1.612

Neutral

Forecast

Consensus

Q1 2014

1.62

Q2 2014

1.62

Q3 2014

1.60

Q4 2014

1.59

* Please see Appendix on Pg 11 for explanation on technical Source: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered

GBP/USD momentum remains weak Technical Analysis Chart: GBP/USD (Daily)

1.68

50 dma 1.6334

1.658

1.66

100 dma 1.6167

200 dma 1.5765

1.64

GBP/USD

1.62

1.629

1.60 1.58 1.56 1.54 1.52 1.50 1.48 Dec-12

Jan-13

Feb-13 Mar-13

GBP/USD

Apr-13

May-13 50 dma

Jun-13

Jul-13

Aug-13

Sep-13

100 dma

Oct-13

Nov-13

Dec-13

Jan-14

200 dma

Source: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered

This reflects the views of the Wealth Management Group

6

fx strategy | 20 January 2014 Key technical indicators and forecast

XAU/USD

Technical Indicator

Action

We remain bullish on the XAU/USD pair as momentum indicators suggest the current rebound may extend a little further.

RSI (14)

Buy

Oscillator (5,10)

Buy

Performance

MACD (12,26,9)

Neutral



ADX (14)

Neutral

Momentum (14)

Buy

XAU/USD was up (0.44%) over the previous week as global equities consolidated at the start of the new year following a strong rally in 2013.

Technical Analysis •



Major technical indicators are neutral to bullish.

Key Levels

Level

Importance

We remain bullish on the XAU/USD pair. We believe major momentum technical indicators are pointing to the likelihood of the rebound extending a little further in the short term. However, longer term we continue to believe that the broader trend is bearish.

Secondary Resistance

1,290

High

Primary Resistance

1,276

Neutral

Spot

1,253



Primary Support

1,210

High

Secondary Support

1,180

Neutral

We would review our outlook if the pair falls below 1,180.

Key Signposts •



This short-term view should be viewed within the context of our longer-term Underweight view on gold. Continued tapering of Fed asset purchases and rising opportunity costs provided by equity market resilience and higher yields are likely to continue working against gold, in our view.

Forecast

Ongoing global central bank purchases, retail demand and geopolitical tensions pose risks to our view.

Consensus

Q1 2014

1,250.0

Q2 2014

1,212.0

Q3 2014

1,200.0

Q4 2014

1,212.5

* Please see Appendix on Pg 11 for explanation on technical Source: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered

Technical indicators support an extension of the current rebound Technical Analysis Chart: XAU/USD (Daily)

1,800 50 dma 1236.93

1,700

100 dma 1282.28

200 dma 1320.73

XAU/USD

1,600 1,500 1,400 1,290

1,300

1,180

1,200 1,100 Dec-12

Jan-13

Feb-13 Mar-13

XAU/USD

Apr-13 May-13 50 dma

Jun-13

Jul-13

Aug-13

Sep-13

100 dma

Oct-13

Nov-13 Dec-13

Jan-14

200 dma

Source: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered

This reflects the views of the Wealth Management Group

7

fx strategy | 20 January 2014

SUPPLEMENTARY PAIRS *SUPPLEMENTARY PAIRS – Going forward, we will maintain the EUR, JPY, AUD, SGD, GBP and XAU outlook while adding just key technical levels for the supplementary pairs We remain bearish on the USD/CNH Technical Analysis: USD/CNH

6.40

50 dma 6.0632

6.35

100 dma 6.0821

200 dma 6.1097

USD/CNH

6.30 6.25 6.20 6.15 6.10 6.042

6.05 6.00 5.95 Dec-12

6.000 Jan-13

Feb-13 Mar-13

Apr-13

USD/CNH

May-13

Jun-13

Jul-13

Aug-13

50 dma

Sep-13

Oct-13

Nov-13

100 dma

Dec-13

Jan-14

200 dma

Source: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered

We remain bullish on the USD/ZAR Technical Analysis: USD/ZAR

11.4

11.000

11.0

USD/ZAR

10.6 10.592

10.2 9.8 9.4

50 dma 10.4254

9.0 8.6

100 dma 10.2022

200 dma 9.9845

8.2 7.8 Dec-12

Jan-13

Feb-13 Mar-13

Apr-13

USD/ZAR

May-13

Jun-13

Jul-13

Aug-13

50 dma

Sep-13

Oct-13

Nov-13

100 dma

Dec-13

Jan-14

200 dma

Source: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered

We remain neutral on the NZD/USD Technical Analysis: NZD/USD

0.87 0.843

0.85

NZD/USD

0.83 0.81 0.81

0.79 0.77

50 dma 0.8245

0.75 0.73 Nov-11

Jan-12

Mar-12

NZD/USD

May-12

Jul-12

Sep-12 50 dma

Nov-12

100 dma 0.8256

Jan-13

200 dma 0.8149

Mar-13

May-13

100 dma

Jul-13

Sep-13

Nov-13

200 dma

Source: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered

This reflects the views of the Wealth Management Group

8

fx strategy | 20 January 2014 We remain bullish on the USD/CHF Technical Analysis: USD/CHF

1.01

50 dma 0.9018

0.99

100 dma 0.9072

200 dma 0.9235

USD/CHF

0.97 0.95 0.93 0.91

0.912

0.89 0.888

0.87 0.85 Mar-12

May-12

Jul-12

Sep-12

USD/CHF

Nov-12

Jan-13

Mar-13

May-13

50 dma

Jul-13

Sep-13

100 dma

Nov-13

Jan-14

200 dma

Source: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered

We turn bearish on the USD/SEK (from bullish earlier) Technical Analysis: USD/SEK

7.4 50 dma 6.5457

USD/SEK

7.2

100 dma 6.503

200 dma 6.5412

7.0 6.8

6.663

6.6 6.4 6.2 Mar-12

6.304 May-12

Jul-12

Sep-12

USD/SEK

Nov-12

Jan-13

Mar-13

50 dma

May-13

Jul-13

100 dma

Sep-13

Nov-13

Jan-14

200 dma

Source: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered

We remain bullish on the USD/CAD Technical Analysis: USD/CAD

1.11

1.12 1.10

USD/CAD

1.08

1.086

1.06 1.04 1.02 1.00

50 dma 1.0653

0.98 0.96 Nov-11

Jan-12

Mar-12

USD/CAD

May-12

Jul-12

Sep-12 50 dma

Nov-12

Jan-13

Mar-13

May-13

100 dma

Jul-13

100 dma 1.0511

Sep-13

200 dma 1.0416

Nov-13

Jan-14

200 dma

Source: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered

This reflects the views of the Wealth Management Group

9

fx strategy | 20 January 2014

Interest Rate Differentials

FX Implied Volatility

Measures the yield of holding the foreign currency relative to the base currency

An appropriate indicator used to gauge future expectations of price movements based on FX options market pricing

EUR/USD

EUR/USD 1. 7

19

2.0

1. 6

17

1. 5

15

%

1.5

1. 4

1.0

1. 3

0.5 0.0 -0.5 May-08

May-09

May-10

May-11

May-12

Difference between EUR and USD 2 yr swap

EUR/USD

2.5

9

1. 1

7

1. 0

5 Jan-11

May-13

115

25

105

20

95

1.5 1.0

85

0.5

Jan-13

Jul-13

Jan-14

May-10

May-11

May-12

Jul-13

Jan-14

Jul-13

Jan-14

Jul-13

Jan-14

Jul-13

Jan-14

15 10

75 May-09

Difference between USD and JPY 2 yr swap

5 Jan-11

May-13

Jul-11

Jan-12

USD/JPY (RHS)

Jul-12

Jan-13

2W Implied Volatility

AUD/USD

AUD/USD

6

1. 2

5

1. 1

25 21

0. 9

3

0. 8

2

0. 7

1

AUD/USD

1. 0

4 %

Jul-12

2W Implied Volatility

USD/JPY

%

2.0

0. 5 May-09

May-10

May-11

May-12

Difference between AUD and USD 2 yr swap

13

5 Jan-11

May-13

Jul-11

Jan-12

AUD/USD (RHS)

Jul-12

Jan-13

2W Implied Volatility

USD/SGD

USD/SGD

1. 0

1. 65

17.0

1. 55

14.5

1. 45 0. 5 1. 35 0. 0

May-09

May-10

May-11

May-12

Difference between USD and SGD 2 yr swap

USD/SGD

1. 5

-0.5 May-08

17

9

0. 6

0 May-08

%

Jan-12

USD/JPY

2.5

12.0 9. 5 7. 0

1. 25

4. 5

1. 15

2. 0 Jan-11

May-13

Jul-11

Jan-12

USD/SGD (RHS)

Jul-12

Jan-13

2W Implied Volatility

GBP/USD

GBP/USD 14

1.4

3. 0 2. 5

1. 5

1.8

1. 0 0. 5

2.0 May-09

May-10

May-11

Difference between GBP and USD 2 yr swap

May-12

May-13

GBP/USD

12 1.6

2. 0 %

Jul-11

EUR/USD (RHS)

3.0

0. 0 May-08

11

1. 2

USD/JPY

0.0 May-08

13

10 8 6 4 Jan-11

Jul-11

Jan-12

GBP/USD (RHS)

Jul-12

Jan-13

2W Implied Volatility

Source: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered

This reflects the views of the Wealth Management Group

10

fx strategy | 20 January 2014

TECHNICAL INDICATORS – EXPLANATORY APPENDIX RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI indicators can be used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. An RSI above 70 can indicate a currency pair is overbought while an RSI below 30 can indicate the pair is oversold. Stochastic Oscillator – The Stochastic Oscillator compares where a security's price closed relative to its trading range over a given time period. The security or index is generally considered oversold when the Oscillator falls to 20%, while a reading of 80% is considered overbought. MACD (The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence) – This indicator shows the relationship between two moving averages of prices. A bearish signal is provided when the main moving average line drops below the second moving average line, and vice versa. ADX (Average Directional Index) – This indicator quantifies a trend's strength regardless of whether it is up or down. An index rising above zero provides a bullish signal while an index falling below zero provides a bearish signal. Momentum Indicator – The momentum of a security is the ratio of today's price compared to the price at a given point in the past. If the security's price is higher today, the momentum indicator will be considered strong. If the security's price is lower today, the momentum Indicator will be weak.

This reflects the views of the Wealth Management Group

11

fx strategy | 20 January 2014

Disclosure Appendix This document is not research material and it has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. This document does not necessarily represent the views of every function within the Standard Chartered Bank, particularly those of the Global Research function. Standard Chartered Bank is incorporated in England with limited liability by Royal Charter 1853 Reference Number ZC18. The Principal Office of the Company is situated in England at 1 Basinghall Avenue, London, EC2V 5DD Standard Chartered Bank is authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and Prudential Regulation Authority. In Dubai International Financial Centre (“DIFC”), the attached material is circulated by Standard Chartered Bank DIFC on behalf of the product and/or Issuer. Standard Chartered Bank DIFC is regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (DFSA) and is authorised to provide financial products and services to persons who meet the qualifying criteria of a Professional Client under the DFSA rules. The protection and compensation rights that may generally be available to retail customers in the DIFC or other jurisdictions will not be afforded to Professional Clients in the DIFC. Banking activities may be carried out internationally by different Standard Chartered Bank branches, subsidiaries and affiliates (collectively “SCB”) according to local regulatory requirements. With respect to any jurisdiction in which there is a SCB entity, this document is distributed in such jurisdiction by, and is attributable to, such local SCB entity. Recipients in any jurisdiction should contact the local SCB entity in relation to any matters arising from, or in connection with, this document. Not all products and services are provided by all SCB entities. This document is being distributed for general information only and it does not constitute an offer, recommendation, solicitation to enter into any transaction or adopt any hedging, trading or investment strategy, in relation to any securities or other financial instruments. This document is for general evaluation only, it does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, particular needs of any particular person or class of persons and it has not been prepared for any particular person or class of persons. Opinions, projections and estimates are solely those of SCB at the date of this document and subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results and no representation or warranty is made regarding future performance. Any forecast contained herein as to likely future movements in rates or prices or likely future events or occurrences constitutes an opinion only and is not indicative of actual future movements in rates or prices or actual future events or occurrences (as the case may be). This document has not and will not be registered as a prospectus in any jurisdiction and it is not authorised by any regulatory authority under any regulations. SCB makes no representation or warranty of any kind, express, implied or statutory regarding, but not limited to, the accuracy of this document or the completeness of any information contained or referred to in this document. This document is distributed on the express understanding that, whilst the information in it is believed to be reliable, it has not been independently verified by us. 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