U.S. Auto Industry Chartbook BBVA Research USA Houston, TX
Second Quarter 2015
Key messages •
Robust demand for light weight vehicles driven by low interest rates, low energy prices, and improving job availability/income prospects
•
Lower inflation and employment growth are boosting real personal income, which has returned to its pre-recession pace
•
CPI shows further downward pressures on prices of used vehicles
•
Credit continued to flow as loan originations are about to reached 2005-2006 levels
•
The average age of passenger cars in operation flattened at 11.4 years, suggesting a turning point that could lead to more sales in the following years
•
On a year-over-year basis, sales of plug-in vehicles declined in 2Q15 reflecting the impact of low gasoline prices
Sales
3
Sales U.S. Total light weight vehicle sales (SAAR*, million units) 25 Average 2001-2007: 16.7 million
20
Jun 2015: 17.2 million
15
10
5
0 2005
Total Domestic Imported
2006
2007
2008
*SAAR = seasonally adjusted annual rate Source: BBVA Research & Haver Analytics
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015 4
Sales U.S. Total vehicle sales (SAAR, million units) 14
0.6
12
0.5
10 0.4 8 0.3 6 0.2 4
Cars (left axis) Light trucks (left axis)
2
0.1
Medium and heavy trucks (right axis) 0 2003
0.0 2005
2007
*SAAR = seasonally adjusted annual rate Source: BBVA Research & Haver Analytics
2009
2011
2013
2015 5
Sales U.S. Vehicle days to turn (industry average) 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 2010 Source: Bloomberg
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015 6
Sales U.S. Market share by brand (%) 30 25 20
2Q15
2Q05
15 10 5 0
Source: Bloomberg
7
Sales U.S. Quarterly unit sales (yoy % change) 60.0 40.0 20.0 0.0 -20.0 -40.0 2015 Q2
2014 Q2
-60.0
Source: Bloomberg
8
Prices U.S. Consumer price index: cars and trucks (yoy % change) 20% 15%
New Used
10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% 2005
2006
Source: Haver Analytics
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015 9
Prices U.S. Auto prices 34
130
33
125
32 120 31 115
30
110
29 28
105 100 95 2005
2006
2007
Source: Haver Analytics & Bloomberg
2008
2009
Manheim used vehicle value index (left axis)
27
True market value (avg. all segments, $ thous, 4-Q moving average, right axis)
26
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
25 2015 10
Financing conditions U.S. Car loan rates (%) 8 7
48-month new car loan 36-month used car loan 60-month new car
6 5 4 3 2 2008
2009
Source: Haver Analytics
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015 11
Financing conditions U.S. Auto loan 90+ days delinquent (% of balance) 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 2005
2006
Source: Haver Analytics
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015 12
Financing conditions U.S. Leasing penetration rate, % 35
30
25
20
15
10 2005
2006
Source: Bloomberg
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015 13
Financing conditions U.S. Newly originated installment auto loans ($ billion, eop, 4-qtr moving average) 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 2005
2006
Source: Haver Analytics
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014 14
Gasoline U.S. Spot price ($/gallon) 4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5 2005
2006
Source: Haver Analytics
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015 15
Consumers
16
Consumers U.S. Consumer sentiment index 120 Current economic conditions 110
Consumer expectations
100 90 80 70 60 50 40 2005
2006
Source: Haver Analytics
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015 17
Consumers U.S. Plans to buy a car within 6 months, % of respondents 15.0 14.5 14.0 13.5 13.0 12.5 12.0 11.5 11.0 10.5 10.0 2005
2006
Source: Haver Analytics
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015 18
Consumers U.S. Employment and real disposable personal income growth (yoy % change) 6% Average RDPI growth 2001-2006 = 3.2%
4% 2% 0% -2% -4%
Real disposable personal income Employment growth
-6% 2005
2006
2007
2008
Source: BBVA Research and Haver Analytics
Average RDPI growth 2010-1Q15 = 1.9%
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014 19
Household equity U.S. Household equity and home prices 140
15%
120
10%
100 5% 80 0% 60 -5% 40 -10%
20 0 2005
Owners equity in real estate (NSA, Bil $, left axis) FHFA house price index (yoy change, right axis)
2006
Source: Haver Analytics
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
-15% 2013
2014 20
Savings and deleverage U.S. Debt-to-income ratio and savings rate 16
10
15
9
14
8
13
7
12
6
11
5
10
4
9
3 Debt service ratio (right axis) Personal savings (left axis) 12 per. Mov. Avg. (Personal savings (left axis))
8 7 6 2005
2 1 0
2006
Source: Haver Analytics
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014 21
Production
22
Production U.S. Auto production 180
5.0
160
4.5
140
4.0 3.5
120
3.0
100
2.5 80
2.0
60
1.5
40 20 0 2005
1.0 Industrial production index: autos (2007=100, left axis)
0.5
BEA auto production estimate (SAAR, million.units, right axis)
0.0 2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
SAAR = seasonally adjusted annual rate, BEA = U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis Source: BBVA Research & Haver Analytics
2012
2013
2014 23
Structural
24
Fundamentals U.S. Mean age of passenger cars in operation Years
U.S. Vehicle miles of travel Trillions
12
3.5 3.0
11
2.5 2.0
2014: 11.4
10
2014: 3.03 1.5 1.0
9
0.5
Source: Haver Analytics
14
09
04
99
94
89
84
79
0.0 74
13
12
11
10
09
08
07
06
05
04
8
25
Demographics U.S. Population projections by age (millions) 300 65 years and over 250
15-44 years
200 150 100 50
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 2042 2044 2046 2048 2050 2052 2054 2056 2058 2060
0
Source: Haver Analytics
26
Demographics U.S. Licensed drivers by age 25%
20% 2002
2012
15%
10%
5%
0% Les than 19 years old
Source: Haver Analytics
20-29
30-39
40-49
50-59
60-69
70 and more 27
Source: Electric Drive Transportation Association
Jun-15
Apr-15
Feb-15
Dec-14
Oct-14
Aug-14
Jun-14
Apr-14
Feb-14
Dec-13
Oct-13
Aug-13
Jun-13
Apr-13
Feb-13
Dec-12
Oct-12
Aug-12
Jun-12
Apr-12
Feb-12
Dec-11
Oct-11
Aug-11
Jun-11
Apr-11
Feb-11
Alternative vehicles
U.S. New plug-in vehicle sales (thousands)
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
28
Forecasts
29
Forecasts Average Auto sales (millions units)
GDP growth (% change)
Unemployment rate
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
14.5
15.6
16.5
17.1
17.5
2.3
2.2
2.4
2.5
2.8
8.1
7.4
6.2
5.3
4.9
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.50
1.50
0.35
0.69
1.06
1.32
1.96
(% avg.)
Fed funds (%, eop)
3-year Treasuries (%, eop.) Source: BBVA Research
30
U.S. Auto Industry Chartbook BBVA Research USA Houston, TX
Second Quarter 2015
