UCDP 2007 Annual Report In 2007, the UCDP continued to both broaden and deepen the program. Worth mentioning is the fact that we have received grants from a number of funders, that the work with the new database has commenced and intensified, the UCDP has appeared in the media at several occasions, that the dataset over preventive measures has been finalized and made public and that our international cooperation has continued. Also, a number of presentations have been held, nationally and internationally. Finally, in a large evaluation (KoF) of the University activities, the UCDP was labelled the “flagship” of the faculty of social sciences and the University. Outlined below are some of the main UCDP activities during 2007. Applications submitted in 2007 • The Bank of Sweden Tercenary Foundation: funding for a prevention workshop in Uppsala on April 19. • Swedish State Department: funding for an expert conference on the Darfur crisis and a field trip to Sudan. • The Bank of Sweden Tercenary Foundation: funding for a larger project called

“Program on governance, institutions, and civil conflict”. • • • • • • • • •

The Linné: funding for infrastructural support. European Union: application within the so called FP7. The Swedish Research Council: travel grant for workshop in New York in March. The Swedish Research Council: travel grant for a set of meetings with policy makers and academics in New York in October. Ford Foundation: joint application with the Kroc Institute. Carnegie Foundation: joint application with the Kroc Institute. The Swedish Research Council: funding for a project on communal conflicts: Communal conflicts- Causes and Solutions”. The Swedish Research Council: funding for infrastructural support. University of Notre Dame: two applications

The UCDP received the following grants in 2007: • The Bank of Sweden Tercenary Foundation: funding for a prevention workshop in Uppsala on April 19. • The Swedish Research Council: travel grant for workshop in New York in March. • Swedish State Department: a field trip to Sudan.

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United States Institute of Peace: study to evaluate and compare different data collection methods. The Swedish Research Council: infrastructural support The Swedish Research Council: funding for a project on communal conflicts: Communal conflicts- Causes and Solutions”. The National Board of Psychological Defence: grant to write 9 conflict descriptions and update previous ones for their web site. SIPRI Yearbook: assist with data on armed conflicts Human Security Report: assist with data United States Institute of Peace: joint grant with Kroc Institute Kroc Institute: salaries for Peter Wallesnteen and Erik Melander (part time) Kroc Institute: co-funders of the meeting held in New York on October 29.

Media UCDP staff and UCDP data has appeared in the media: • Lotta Harbom and Peter Wallensteen have appeared on Swedish and Finnish radio (P4, Yle radio, Radio Uppland) as a result of the press release of the 2005 conflicts. • Peter Wallensteen appeared in the radio show ”Starkt material” on Swedish radio P3 where he delivered a Top 5 list of the world’s most interesting ceasefires. • Peter Wallensteen appeared on February 13th on Swedish TV8’s ”Världen i Fokus” where the theme was that the armament is rising while the number of armed conflicts are decreasing. • Lotta Harbom appeared on the radio show ”Starkt material” in the Swedish radio station P3 where she delivered a Top 5 of the most noticeable invasions. • The Swedish radio show ”Starkt material” contacted Lotta Harbom for a piece on the invasions of the Comors. • Johan Brosché appeared on Swedish TV8’s ”världen i fokus” where he discussed the crisis in Darfur. • Peter Wallensteen appeared on Swedish radio P1 and made comments on the developments in Northern Ireland. • Johan Brosché was interviewed in the Swedish paper Pax on the conflicts in Sudan, Chad and CAR. • Joakim Kreutz appeared on Swedish TV8’s ”världen i fokus” on April 24th where he talked about the conflict in Iraq and the wall in Baghdad. • Joakim Kreutz appeared in Swedish radio P1 morning show on May 1 to talk about walls. • Peter Wallensteen contributed to the debate in Sweden on whether there is a war raging in Iraq or not. • Joakim Kreutz was interviewed by the Swedish journal “Arena” on the conflict in Iraq. The article was published on August 27. • Joakim Kreutz appeared in Swedish radio P1 to talk about the situation in Burma. • Frida Möller was interviewed by the Lunds University Student paper on conflict prevention measures.

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Joakim Kreutz and Ralph Sundberg were interviewed by the Pol. Mag. (Master’s) Student’s paper about sport and conflict. Joakim Kreutz appeared on TV in the (Swedish) News at 9 (Aktuellt) to discuss the development in Burma. Joakim Kreutz was interviewed by BBC Vietnam on Burma. Peter Wallensteen was interviewed by the Russia speaking news site “Washington Profile”. The Swedish daily morning paper “Dagens Nyheter” published a chronicle on December 19 on the conflicts in the world, based on UCDP’s States in Armed Conflicts. The Swedish daily paper ”Expressen” published a one page article about the conflicts in the world based on the UCDP data. The Swedish daily paper “Svenska Dagbladet” published on December 21 an article on ”the number of conflicts is increasing”, based on the States in Armed Conflicts. The Swedish paper ”Uppsala Nya Tidning” published an article on December 28 based on States in Armed Conflicts. The subject was that the number of conflicts has ceased to decline. States in Armed Conflicts 2006 was mentioned in a number of blogs on the internet. The Human Security Gateway included the States in Armed Conflicts in their news. The press release and the summary of the States in Armed Conflicts 2006 received attention internationally, e.g. by the Kerala News and South Asia Post (India), Telepolis (Germany) and Uutiset Ilta Sanomat (Finland).

Lectures, presentations and teaching • Ralph Sundberg and Joakim Kreutz talked about the Chechnya conflict at the Linnéskolan. • A series of lectures on various conflicts were held at the Senioruniversitetet (Senior University) in Stockholm during the autumn. • Peter Wallensteen held a lecture for social sciences teachers in March, when he among other things showed the database and its potential. • Joakim Kreutz held a lecture on Burma at the Folkuniversitet on October 9. • Ralph Sundberg and Joakim Kreutz went to Avesta on October 24 to talk about armed conflicts with high school students. • Erik Melander held a lecture for the Rotary Club in Sigtuna on the theme ”conflicts of our time”. • Lotta Harbom held a lecture on conflict trends for the Save the Children’s kick off in September. • Erik Melander taught a course in conflict resolution in Bangkok at the Rotary Center for Peace and Conflict Studies, Chulalongkorn University. • Johan Brosché was in charge of the Conflict Analysis course in October. • UCDP material has been used in the course literature.

Conferences, seminars and work shops • UCDP attended the International Studies Association’s yearly conference, this year held in Chicago on February 28 to March 3, exhibiting the UCDP database and presenting papers. • UCDP organized together with the UN University in Tokyo and New York and with the Folke Bernadotte Academy, Sweden a workshop in New York on March 5-6. A number of UCDP staff participated in the workshop. The aim of the workshop was to bring together academics and practitioners. • Johan Brosché participated in ICG conference on Darfur in Brussels. • UCDP together with the Madariaga Foundation and funded by the Bank of Sweden Tercenary Foundation, organized and participated in the workshop ”Third parties and Conflict Prevention” in Uppsala on April 19. UN Special envoy to Sudan Jan Eliasson participated as well as a number of UCDP members. • Erik Melander participated in the workshop “Disaggregating the Study of Civil War and Transnational Violence” in Essex. • Johan Brosché och Ralph Sundberg participated in a seminar on Darfur organized by the UCDP, Life and Peace Institute and the Nordic Africa Institute on February 14. • Joakim Kreutz and Kristine Eck represented the UCDP at the NATO Conference on June 21-23 in Grenoble. • On April 16, Frida Möller participated in prepatory seminar for NATOs Foreign Minister’s meeting in Oslo. Frida presented our research on “conflict prevention as an alternative security strategy”. • Erik Melander presented a revised version of his ISA-paper at the Peace Science in Amsterdam on June 25-27. • Peter Wallensteen participated in a seminar in New York that dealt with sanctions. He was given the opportunity to talk about the UCDP data. • Johan Brosché participated in a seminar at the State Department regarding Darfur. Also present was an ICRC representative and the Swedish Minister for International Development Cooperation Gunilla Karlsson. • Johan Brosché participated in a conference in Lund dealing with the Horn of Africa, organized by the Somalia International Rehabilitation Centre (SIRC). Johan held a presentation on the implementation of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) in Sudan. • Frida Möller and Magnus Öberg were invited by United States Institute of Peace to the ”Prevention Expert Meeting” in Washington on September 24-25 to present the MILC dataset and initial findings. • Peter Wallensteen attended the conference ”Why is war” organized by the International Law Association in September. The UCDP received attention. • Peter Wallensteen and Erik Melander visited the University of Illinois, UrbanaChampain in October to among other things discuss the work by the UCDP. • UCDP was co-organizer of a workshop with the UN Mediation Support Unit in New York on October 29.

International cooperation • Peter Wallensteen spent the autumn at Kroc Institute at the University of Notre Dame. • Erik Melander visited the Kroc Institute at the University of Notre Dame to discuss a more extensive cooperation • UCDP was approached by Professor Wilkenfeld (University of Maryland) with the proposition of using UCDP data in his book Peace and Security, which we approved. • Peter Wallensteen attended a meeting organized by the SAPS (Swedish Advanced School of Asia-Pacific Studies where an idea was launched by PRIO to start up a research program on ”East Asian Peace” where UCDP data would be used. • A number of meetings in Sweden and abroad have been held with Andrew Mack of the Human Security Report Project. • The close cooperation with PRIO has continued during the year. • Cooperation with Karl De Rouen, University of Alabama, has been initiated. • UCDP has initiated a close collaboration with the UN mediation Support Unit and has met with its project manager Nita Yawanarajah on a number of occasions. • UCDP has had a close cooperation with the UN Mediation Support Unit and its project manager Nita Yawanarajah in particular. A number of meetings have been held, in Sweden and the USA. • Lotta Harbom and Peter Wallensteen presented the database for a representative of the Stanford University, department of international politics. Other collaborations • On May 16, representatives from the Folke Bernadotte Academy visited the UCDP to discuss our respective prevention projects. • UCDP representatives met with Prof. Dr. Sven Chojnacki and his collegue Nils from the Freie Universität Berlin to discuss databases. • A number of meetings have been held with Sida representatives. • The UCDP has written a number of conflicts descriptions and updated a number of old ones for the National Board of Psychological Defence’s web site: www.sakerhetspolitik.se • Joakim Kreutz and Johan Brosché visited with the UN, OCHA, HRW, Open Society Institute, Human Rights First, Amnesty International, NYU, Res Publica and Crisis Watch in New York. Other • UCDP staff was part of the group stationed at the Department to support UN’s Jan Eliasson’s efforts to bring peace in Darfur. • Peter Wallensteen participated in a meeting with Gareth Evans (ICG), where UCDP’s data was looked upon very favourably. • A pilot study on if and how the coding of non-state conflicts are affected by the type of material used has been conducted. The countries studied were Honduras, Guatemala and El Salvador, which are countries that are experiencing serious gang violence. Media reports in Spanish were compared to traditional ones in English.

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Also, a wider set of sources and Factiva indexing were compared to our traditional methods. The study showed that even though the new approach captured more events, the level of information was insufficient in order to be coded. The conclusion was that the result is not affected by using complementary material. However, we should continue to develop our search terms and to look for land specific media. The UCDP has been selected as one of the projects at the University that the new fundraising group will collaborate with to attain external funds. This is seen a great success as only two projects from each faculty has been selected. Christian Altpeter and Claire Pigache were interns during the spring. In May, Peter Wallensteen went to Brussels together with Anders Mellbourn and a representative from The Bank of Sweden Tercenary Foundation to discuss a new potential journal -”European Prevention Journal”, that would focus on conflict preventive research. The new dataset of third party efforts called ”Managing Intrastate Low-level Conflicts” (MILC) was made public in October. Peter Wallensteen participated at the launch of SIPRIS yearbook. The UCDP participated at ”DN:s utrikesdag”. Peter Wallensteen took part in a panel discussion and Maria Wold-Troell, Johan Brosché and Joakim Kreutz were part of the audience. The UCDP was commissioned by the United States Institute of Peace to evaluate and compare UCDP’s traditional data compiling method using media reporting with other material such as diplomatic and historical accounts. The study focused on data collection regarding conflict preventive measures. The efforts of creating a new informations folder have begun. In the large evaluation of the University activities (KoF), the UCDP was appointed a flagship of the faculty of social sciences and of the University. Johan Brosché was in Sudan on a field trip in November. UCDP met with Joshua Goldstein, a well known author of international relations literature. The UCDP web site has been restructured and improved. A new web address has been created to gain access to the database: ucdp.uu.se/database The process of creating the new database has continued. UCDP computer programmer Maryam Ladjvardi has programmed the user interface. Many of the texts to the various pages are completed.

Publications

By UCDP staff Books: • •

Wallensteen, Peter; Understanding Conflict Resolution ,(second edition) Harbom, Lotta and Peter Wallensteen; States in Armed Conflict 2006

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Harbom, Lotta and Peter Wallensteen (2007) “Pattern of major armed conflict, 19902006.” Sipri Yearbook 2007. Armaments, Disarmament and International Security 2007. Oxford: Oxford University Press Kreutz, Joakim (2007) "Burma/the Union of Myanmar" i DeRouen Jr. och Heo (eds), "Civil wars of the World: Major conflicts since World War II". Santa Barbara: ABCClio Kreutz, Joakim (2007) "Colombia" in DeRouen Jr och Heo (eds), "Civil wars of the World: Major conflicts since World War II". Santa Barbara: ABC-Clio Melander, Erik & Claire Pigache, 2007. “Conflict Prevention: Concepts and Challenges”, in Walter Feichtinger and Predrag Jurekovic, ed., Konfliktprävention zwischen Anspruch und Wirklichkeit. Wien: the Austrian National Defence Academy (9-17). Wallensteen, Peter and Frida Möller “Third parties in conflict prevention: a systematic look” i Mellbourn, Anders “Conflict Prevention and Third Parties”. Kreutz, Joakim (2007) “Conflicts without borders? A brief overview of non-state conflicts” in Harbom and Wallensteen (eds), “States in Armed Conflict 2006.”

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Brosché, Johan "CPA - New Sudan, Old Sudan or Two Sudan? A review of the implementation of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement", Journal of African Policy Studies Vol 13 (1) Eck, Kristine and Lisa Hultman (2007) “Violence against civilians in war: insights from new fatality data.” Journal of Peace Research Vol 44(2):233-246 Harbom, Lotta and Peter Wallensteen (2007) “Armed Conflict 1989-2006.” Journal of Peace Research Vol 44(5):617-631. Melander, Erik & Magnus Öberg, 2007. “The Threat of Violence and Forced Migration: Geographical Scope Trumps Intensity of Fighting”, Civil Wars 9(2): 156173. Möller, Frida, Karl DeRouen Jr., Jacob Bercovitch, and Peter Wallensteen “The Limits of Peace: Third Parties in Civil Wars in Southeast Asia, 1993-2004”

Negotiation Journal 23 (4) Reports: •

Möller, Frida Approaching Prevention: Comparing Two Methods. A report to the United States Institute of Peace.

Conference Papers: •

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Brosché, Johan and Joakim Kreutz. Stopping the killing of civilians from the outside. The Annual Convention of International Studies Association (ISA), February 28 – March 3 2007, Chicago, USA Melander, Erik. 2007. Peacekeepers and Mass Killers: Uncovering a relationship using seemingly unrelated probit. Paper presented at the 2007 Jan Tinbergen Peace Science Conference, June 25-27, Tinbergen Institute, Amsterdam, the Netherlands.

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Melander, Erik. 2007. The Middle Powers in Conflict Prevention. Paper presented at the "Third Parties and Conflict Prevention, workshop of the Anna Lindh Network on Conflict Prevention, 19 April, Uppsala, Sweden. Melander, Erik. 2007. Preventing Mass Killings Through Peacekeeping: A First Glance and a Seemingly Unrelated Analysis. The 2007 Annual Convention Möller, Frida, Peter Wallensteen and Magnus Öberg. Practice of Prevention: Third Party Measures in Low-Intensity Conflicts, 1993-2004. The Annual Convention of International Studies Association (ISA), February 28 – March 3 2007, Chicago, USA Möller, Frida and Isak Svensson. Who Prevents Civil Wars? Mediation Selection in Minor Armed Conflicts. The Annual Convention of International Studies Association (ISA), February 28 – March 3, 2007, Chicago, USA

Other: •

Kreutz, Joakim. "Burma: protest, crackdown - and now?" October12, 2007,

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(http://www.opendemocracy.net/article/democracy_power/politics_protest/burma_fu ture) Kreutz, Joakim. "Burma's challenge: nationalism, not democracy", November 12, 2007

opendemocracy.net

progressivebangladesh.com (http://www.progressivebangladesh.org/index.php?option=com_content&task=view& id=104&Itemid=1)

By researchers at the Department using UCDP data Articles in Journals • • • •

Hultman, Lisa (2007) “Battle losses and rebel violence: raising the costs for fighting.” Terrorism and Political Violence Vol 19(2):205-222 Svensson, Isak. “Fighting with Faith: Religion and Conflict Resolution in Civil Wars?” Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol: no 6, 930-949 Svensson, Isak.”Mediation with Muscles or Minds?: Exploring Power and Trust Mediators in Civil Wars”, International Negotiation, (Vol 12, no 2, 2007) Svensson, Isak.”Bias, Bargaining, and Peace Brokers: How Rebels Commit to Peace”, Journal of Peace Research, 44(2), 2007

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Eck, Kristine, “From Armed Conflict to War: Ethnic Mobilization and Rebel Recruitment,”, Jan Tinbergen Peace Science Conference; Amsterdam; 25-27 June, 2007 Eck, Kristine, “An Overview and Typology of Conflict Data: the Advantages of Data Diversity,”, NATO Advanced Research Workshop on Indicators and Databases for Risk Prevention; Grenoble, Frankrike; 21-23 June 2007 Eck, Kristine, “Recruiting Rebels: Indoctrination and Political Education in Nepal,”, 36th Annual Conference on South Asia and the 2nd Annual Himalayan Policy Research Conference; Madison, WI; 10-14 October 2007

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Forsberg, Erika, "Inspiration and the Contagion of Internal Conflict: A Preliminary Look at the Role of Concessions.”, Jan Tinbergen Peace Science Conference, Amsterdam, 25-27 June, 2007. Forsberg, Erika, “Demonstration Effects and the Contagion of Ethnic Conflict: Theoretical Specifications and Tentative Findings”, 48th Annual International Studies Association Convention, Chicago, 28 February - 3 March, 2007. Jarstad, Anna K. “Power-Sharing Elections and War Recurrence”. The Swedish Network of Peace, Conflict and Development Research: ‘The Democratization Project: Challenges and Opportunities’, Uppsala, 23–24 October 2007. Hultman, Lisa “Rebel Attacks on Civilians: Targeting the Achilles Heel of Democratic Governments”, (1)European Peace Science Conference, Amsterdam, 25-27 June 2007, (2) Peace Science Society (PSSI) North American Meeting, Columbia, SC, 2-4 November 2007. Nilsson, Desiree, “Political Pacts--No Promise of Peace?” With Anna Jarstad, The International Studies Associations Annual Convention, in Chicago, USA, 28 February–3 March 2007. Nilsson, Desiree, “Partial Peace: Rebel Groups Inside and Outside of Civil War Settlements”, The World Bank Post-Conflict Transitions Conference, The World Bank, Washington DC, USA, 30 April–1 May 2007. Nilsson, Desiree, “Multiple Rebel Groups and Civil War Settlements”, (1) Jan Tinbergen European Peace Science Conference, within the Network of European Peace Scientists, Amsterdam, the Netherlands, 25–27 June 2007. (2) The Conference of the ECPR Standing Group on International Relations (SGIR), Turin, Italy, 12–15 September 2007. Nilsson, Desiree, “Civil Society in Peace Agreements”, The SYLFF Asia-Pacific Regional Forum at Jadavpur University, Calcutta, India, 19–23 November 2007. Svensson, Isak, Favouring Friends? The Effect of Neutral and Biased Mediators on the Content of Peace Agreements?, Annual Convention for the International Studies Association, USA Svensson, Isak , Gods and Guns: Patterns of Religious Dimensions in Asian Armed Conflicts, 1945-2005, the Annual Peace Network Conference Svensson, Isak. The Democratization Project: Challenges and Opportunities, 23-24 October 2007, Uppsala, Sweden. Arranged by the Swedish Network of Peace, Conflict and Development Research. (co-author: David Rangdrol) Svensson, Isak. Gods and Guns: Patterns of Religious Dimensions in Asian Armed Conflicts, 1945-2005, Paper presented at the Church of Sweden National Research Conference, 15 November 2007, Uppsala, Sweden. (co-author: David Rangdrol)

Dissertations at the Department, using UCDP data • Svensson, Isak Elusive Peacemakers. A Bargaining Perspective on Mediation in Internal Armed Conflicts, Uppsala University, Uppsala, (Research Reports; 75)