Trends & Statistics - October 2014

Insight Department VisitScotland October 2014 1

Welcome In today’s rapidly changing world, having an informed outlook is vital. The tourism and hospitality sectors are increasingly sensitive to consumer trends and economic conditions. The VisitScotland Insights Team combines consumer perspectives with industry knowledge to allow Scottish Tourism to meet the challenges of today’s marketplace. Our monthly Trends and Statistics Summary is a snapshot of industry performance. It also provides a commentary on the drivers influencing consumers and business now and in the future.

Insights Summary    

780,000 international visits to Scotland were recorded during Q2 of 2014, the best Q2 since 2007, and 17% up on the same period in 2013. Events such as the Commonwealth Games, and Edinburgh Festival led to day visits for August 2014 increasing by 56% to 17m against August 2013, whilst spend also increased by 135% on the same period last year. Provenance of food is becoming a popular concept with consumers, with a demand for homely, transparent brands and meals. Virgin Atlantic’s ‘Little Red’ domestic carrier will stop running its service across the UK in 2015.

International Trips to Scotland Q1-2 2014 The ‘Tree Map’ below displays the top 10 visiting countries to Scotland during Q1 and Q2 of 2014, with the proportion and dimension of each box representing the number of trips each country has taken to Scotland throughout this period. Figures indicate that throughout the first half of 2014, USA and Germany represent 41% of the total trips to Scotland of the top 10 visiting countries.

Source: International Passenger Survey 2

Tourism Performance Domestic Overnight Tourism to Scotland (GB Residents)

The month of June saw a decrease in all tourism to Scotland with 1.02 million trips taken, down 12% on June 2013. Expenditure reached £260 million, a 10% decrease on the same period last year. The average length of trip to Scotland remained fairly stagnant at 3.2 nights, however there was a slight increase in both the average spend per trip and night to £221 and £69 respectively. Holiday trips for the year to date have remained quite flat with trips decreasing 2% on the same period last year, whilst nights and expenditure also slightly decreased. Business travel trips have declined by 4.6% on the same period last year. However both nights and expenditure has increased 2.5% and 13% respectively.

Domestic Overnight Tourism 0.0%

% Change Year-on-Year

The graph opposite shows the year-on-year change in visits over the year to date (JanJun).

-1.0% -2.0% -3.0% -4.0% -5.0% -6.0%

Trips (m)

Night (m)

Spend (£m)

-3.9%

-5.1%

-1.2%

Jan - Jun 13

5.54

18.04

1190.00

Jan - Jun 14

5.32

17.12

1176.00

% Change

International Tourism to Scotland

International Inbound Tourism

% Change Year-on-Year

20.0% 15.0% 10.0%

5.0% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0%

Trips (m)

Spend (£m)

% Change

16.1%

-7.3%

Q1-2 2013

0.96

620.01

Q1-2 2014

1.12

574.65

The graph opposite shows year-on-year change in tourism to Scotland Quarter 1 and Quarter 2 2014. 780,000 visits to Scotland were recorded during Q2 of 2014, the best Q2 since 2007, and 17% up on the same period in 2013. Visitor spending in Scotland remained on par with that of Q2 2013 at £440 million. Holiday visits to Scotland grew just 1% while VFR visits rose 15%. Most notably business visits to Scotland grew by 80% compared to a weaker performance in Q2 in 2013. Visits from several major markets including Republic of Ireland, Germany, USA, Norway and Poland were up in the first half of 2014 in comparison to 2013. Visits from both France and Belgium were down on the same period last year. International travel to/from the UK UK residents took just over 17 million trips abroad in the three months to July 2014. This is in line with the number of visits taken over the same time last year. By journey purpose, visiting friends and family has been popular over the last 3 months – rising 10% during May to July 2014. Holiday visits dipped slightly 1% and business visits nudged up 1%.

3

Tourism Performance Tourism Day Visits to Scotland (GB Residents) 9.0%

Tourism Day Visits

8.0% 7.0%

% Change Year-on-Year

The twelve month rolling total of Day Visits for September 2013 to June 2014 was 128m visits , down 1.4% on the previous twelve months, whilst spend totalled £4,686m, up 5.2% against the same period. The number of trips for the year to August were up 5.2%, and spend was also up 7.8% on the same period in 2013. Day visits for August 2014 increased 56% to 17m against August 2013, whilst spend also increased by 135% on the same period last year. The Commonwealth Games may have been a strong influencing factor for day visit travel. The average spend per trip for the year to date is £35.79, slightly up on 2013’s figure of £34.92

6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0%

Trips (m)

Spend (£m)

5.2%

7.8%

Jan-Aug 2013

84

2928

Jan-Aug 2014

88

3157

% Change

Accommodation Occupancy

Accommodation Occupancy in Scotland July 2014

Occupancy rates were generally quite flat for July 2014, with Hotels, Selfcatering, and Hostel accommodation performing positively. ALLFV, Ayrshire & Arran, and Glasgow & Clyde Valley in particular have driven this increase.

Average Occupancy Rate

Hotel (Room) BB/GH (Room) Self-Catering Hostel Caravan & Camping* RevPar (to July 14) *data collected Apr-Oct

Pp change % Occupancy on 2013 82 +2 69 -2 70 +3 69 +10 57 -3 £87.17 (+)£12.59

Confidence Confidence rates in July are high among all accommodation sectors. Confidence over a 3 month outlook is at 94% among hotels, up 8% on July 2013, while 81% of B&B’s are either very or quite confident, up 15%. Among self-catering operators, confidence is up by 10%, whilst Holiday Parks are 38% on July 2013.12 month outlook confidence is also up across all sectors.

4

Tourism Trends Trend Consumer Conditions

Exchange Rates

Weather

News

Tourism Industry

Travel Demand

Commentary Provenance is proving to be a key trend developing within the tourism industry, as British food is growing in popularity. A study conducted by Allegra Strategies asked 1,200 UK consumers on their shopping, cooking, and eating out habits and found that there is a growing preference for British cuisine when cooking and eating out. Consumers are also looking for more transparency with their food choices, following the well publicised food scandal. This is leading to consumers seeking quality assurance and Red Tractor labels to ensure their products origins. The Sterling Exchange Rate Index (SERI) fell by 0.3% in September, the second decrease in 2014. However, It is 5.7% higher in comparison to the same period in 2013. It is currently 17% below its pre-recession peak in July 2007. The pound was down 2.4% ($1.63) against the dollar in comparison to August, but up 0.8% (€1.48) against the euro. September was the second driest September on record, with only 33.3mm of rain the whole month. The UK was dominated by high pressure throughout the month, with settled earlyautumn weather, with only a few short rainy spells. This led to limited showers, and above average temperatures. This was the fourth warmest September for the UK since records began in 1910. International interest in the Scottish Mountain Biking Conference is growing. The Peebles event will take place between 11 to 13 November, and has attracted delegates from Denmark, Sweden, Holland, and Switzerland. Fewer holidays have been taken by Britons over the last twelve months, according to research by ABTA. Research in the’ Consumer Holiday Trends Report’ found that holidays by Brits were slightly down on the previous year, whilst the average number of holidays taken per person was also down. However, the average foreign holiday per person remained stable from the same period in 2013 at 1.2 per person. The European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) has announced that electronic devices do pose a safety risk, and mobile phones can be left switched on during flights. Currently airline passengers have to switch devices into flight mode and cannot make calls or send messages whilst on the plane. This announcement clears the path for airlines to permit the use of mobile technology, once they have conducted their own safety reviews. A Glamping site, including 8 yurts near Rosemarkie has been recommended for approval by Highland Council officials. An area of the woodland near Hilockhead is set to be turned into a campsite, which will house the traditonal Mongolian yurts. Glamping is recognised as a form of luxury camping, designed to entice new markets to the camping industry. The Bannockburn Heritage Centre celebrated its 50,000 visitor this month after reopening in March 2014. 2014’s visitor figures have already surpassed the annual average of the centre before its redevelopment, which use to welcome around 25,000 guests per year. Virgin Atlantic is set to stop running its ‘Little Red’ domestic flight service in 2015. Flights between London Heathrow and Manchester will stop in March, whilst flights between Heathrow and Edinburgh and Aberdeen will finish September 2015. Edinburgh’s new tram line system carried 1.5 million passengers in its first 100 days. This is said to be in line with predictions, as the service averaged around 90,000 people each week using the trams. The service was helped during this period by a number of key events that took place in Edinburgh, namely concerts, sporting events, and the Edinburgh Festival. Scotland’s three main airports saw continued growth in passenger numbers in August due to events such as the Commonwealth Games, and the World Pipe Band championship helping Glasgow’s figures. Glasgow saw increases of 4.9% on August 2013, and achieving an 8.9% increase in international passenger numbers. Aberdeen saw an increase of 8.8%, whilst Edinburgh achieved a 2.9% rise in passenger traffic.

Information Sources GBTS - Great Britain Tourism Survey IPS - International Passenger Survey GBDVS - Great Britain Day Visit Survey SAOS - Scottish Accommodation Occupancy Survey (SAOS represented as % of total occupancy.) Unless stated % Change and percentage point difference is calculated against comparable period in previous 12 months. For further information on this briefing please contact the Insights Department - [email protected]

Disclaimer: This document has been produced by VisitScotland Insight Department. Due to data collection methodology figures are considered provisional, may be subject to change upon revision and may not total 100% due to rounding. VisitScotland are subject to data provision from third parties and cannot guarantee the availability of specific data. No representation or warranty is given (expressed or implied) as to accuracy or correctness of the information and of the opinions contained in this report. The material shouldn’t be regarded as specific advice and no action should be taken with reliance on it. Neither the authors nor VisitScotland accepts any liability whatsoever for any loss or damage in any way or reliance put upon the material.

5

Notes

6