Center for Management and Economic Research Office for Economic Development
Transportation Infrastructure In Alabama Meeting the Needs for Economic Growth
Final Report on the Requirements for Infrastructure and Transportation to Support the Transformation of the Alabama Economy
U.S. Department of Transportation Grant No. DTTS59-03-G-00008 Submitted by The Office of Infrastructure, Logistics and Transportation The Office for Economic Development The University of Alabama in Huntsville William R. Killingsworth, Ph.D., Director
[email protected] 256.824.4434 Gregory A. Harris, P.E., Deputy Director
[email protected] 256.824.6060 ©The University of Alabama in Huntsville
Center for Management and Economic Research Office for Economic Development
Center for Management and Economic Research Office for Economic Development • • • • • • • • •
Lean Enterprise Lean Manufacturing Six Sigma and Quality Processes Supply Chain Design and Optimization Enterprise Software Transportation Infrastructure Innovation and New Product Development Economic Development Strategies Administration of Industry Associations ©The University of Alabama in Huntsville
Center for Management and Economic Research Office for Economic Development
Transportation infrastructure will enable or constrain economic growth in the future.
©The University of Alabama in Huntsville
Center for Management and Economic Research Office for Economic Development
The Bottom Line 1. Anticipated growth in major industry clusters will strain the existing infrastructure and limit future growth. 2. Current industrial base, geographical location, and natural resources can position Alabama as the Freight Gateway to MidAmerica. 3. Transportation logistics is the link to economic growth opportunity for the state. ©The University of Alabama in Huntsville
Center for Management and Economic Research Office for Economic Development
Findings • Alabama has a multi-modal transportation network that includes:
Highways; Navigable Inland Waterways; Deep Sea Port; Service by Multiple Railroads; and International Air Cargo.
• The network of transportation infrastructure, however, is currently functioning as independent modalities, not as a system. As a result, the transportation infrastructure of Alabama is not realizing the maximum ROI. • This transportation infrastructure will play a determining role in the on-going transition of Alabama’s economy from a natural resource and agricultural based economy to a manufacturing and knowledge based economy. The network can play either an enabling or constraining role in economic growth and transition. ©The University of Alabama in Huntsville
Center for Management and Economic Research Office for Economic Development
Findings • Trends and developments create both opportunities and looming crises for the Alabama economy and its transportation infrastructure. ◦ ◦ ◦ ◦
Continuing Deterioration of Alabama’s highways and bridges; Rapid Growth of the Automotive Industry; Expansion of the Alabama State Docks; and On-going urban/suburban sprawl.
• Key sections of Alabama’s highways face rapidly growing congestion. In 2002, there were 175 miles of interstate with average daily traffic flow in excess of capacity. By 2008, it will grow to 840 miles (increase of 380%). • Freight shipments on inland waterways have dramatically declined. ©The University of Alabama in Huntsville
Center for Management and Economic Research Office for Economic Development
Findings • The Alabama State Docks is developing a major container handling facility. However, the lack of a designated northsouth intermodal rail line in Alabama largely constrains intermodal rail cargo to east-west destinations. • Truck shipments of containers, primarily north bound, must increase to handle the growth anticipated at the State Docks. • Transportation infrastructure planning based upon independent modalities and a non-systemic view is inadequate. Trend line forecasts are incomplete.
©The University of Alabama in Huntsville
Center for Management and Economic Research Office for Economic Development
Recommendations • Near-term solutions must be identified and evaluated to address the looming interstate congestion crises. • Establish freight demand functions based upon industry clusters. • Develop robust analytical tools to evaluate and project infrastructure performance utilizing industry cluster research. ©The University of Alabama in Huntsville
Center for Management and Economic Research Office for Economic Development
Recommendations • Assess the impact of modern supply chain strategies on freight movement and traffic. • Determine the drivers and policy issues that affect the dynamics of freight mode selection. • Develop a System Dynamics model that incorporates the long-term interrelationships between population, transportation infrastructure and economic growth. ©The University of Alabama in Huntsville
Center for Management and Economic Research Office for Economic Development
Population Infrastructure Economic Activity
©The University of Alabama in Huntsville
Center for Management and Economic Research Office for Economic Development
P-I-E Interrelationship Model
©The University of Alabama in Huntsville
Center for Management and Economic Research Office for Economic Development
Population Infrastructure Economic Activity
©The University of Alabama in Huntsville
Center for Management and Economic Research Office for Economic Development
Percentage Change in Population 1980-2000 Alabama by Region 0.3 0.25 0.2
Regio n1 24.97%
AL-14.21% Regio n9 19.07%
0.15 0.1 0.05
Regio n3 12.20% Regio n2 7.92%
Regio n4 10.07%
Regio n5 13.25%
Regio n6 12.80%
0
Regio n7 9.61%
Region8 4.02%
-0.05 -0.1
©The University of Alabama in Huntsville
Center for Management and Economic Research Office for Economic Development
Percent Change In Labor Force 1980 - 2003 Alabama By Region 45.00% 40.00% 35.00%
Region 1 42.72%
Region 9 40.10%
30.00% 25.00% Region 3 25.21%
20.00% 15.00%
Region 4 21.31%
Region 5 27.10%
Region 6 28.55% Region 7 21.71%
10.00% 5.00%
Region 2 10.20%
Region 8 1.83%
0.00%
©The University of Alabama in Huntsville
Center for Management and Economic Research Office for Economic Development
Percent Change in Population 1980-2003
©The University of Alabama in Huntsville
Center for Management and Economic Research Office for Economic Development
Percent Change in Labor Force 1980-2003
©The University of Alabama in Huntsville
Center for Management and Economic Research Office for Economic Development
Population
Infrastructure Economic Activity
©The University of Alabama in Huntsville
Center for Management and Economic Research Office for Economic Development
175 Miles of Congested Facility
©The University of Alabama in Huntsville
Center for Management and Economic Research Office for Economic Development
Interstate 65 Annual Average Daily Traffic 160,000
140,000
100,000
AADT 1985
AADT 1990 80,000
AADT 1995
AADT 2000
AADT 2002 60,000
40,000
20,000
87 11 0 13 5 16 1 17 0 17 4 18 4 21 0 23 2 24 7 25 4. 5 25 9. 5 26 3 27 3 28 3 29 1 30 8. 5 31 8 32 9 34 4 36 2
55
32
17
7
0
1
# OF VEHICLES
120,000
MILE MARKER
©The University of Alabama in Huntsville
Center for Management and Economic Research Office for Economic Development
©The University of Alabama in Huntsville
Center for Management and Economic Research Office for Economic Development
Intermodal Railways Through Alabama & the Southeast ©The University of Alabama in Huntsville
Center for Management and Economic Research Office for Economic Development
Huntsville International Intermodal Center 1987 to 2004 Container Growth 40,000
35,000
33,344
30,000 26,502 24,560
25,000 Container Lifts
27,423
23,263 23,406
22,873 21,499
20,000
18,247 17,808
17,459
16,499
16,303
14,834
15,000
13,738
13,552
12,356
11,847 10,000
5,000
0 1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
©The University of Alabama in Huntsville
1999
2000
2001 2002* 2003
2004
Center for Management and Economic Research Office for Economic Development
Alabama Inland Waterways
©The University of Alabama in Huntsville
Center for Management and Economic Research Office for Economic Development
Total Barge Traffic (Upbound and Dow nbound)
25,000
Barges
20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
Tennessee River - Guntersville (1)
Tombigbee - Demopolis
Coosa River - Claiborne
Tennessee River - Wheeler (1)
Tenn-Tom-Bay Springs
Tenn-Tom-Gainesville
So ur ce: Army Corps of Engineers, compiled by the University of Alabama in Huntsville Office for Economic Development
©The University of Alabama in Huntsville
2001
Center for Management and Economic Research Office for Economic Development
Total Barge Traffic (Upbound and Downbound) Average Annual % Change 1990-2001
Coosa River - Claiborne Tombigbee - Demopolis Tennessee River - Guntersville (1) Tennessee River - Wheeler (1) Tenn-Tom-Gainesville Tenn-Tom-Bay Springs -30.00%
-25.00%
-20.00%
-15.00%
-10.00%
-5.00%
Source: Army Corps of Engineers, compiled by the University of Alabama in Huntsville Office for Economic Development
©The University of Alabama in Huntsville
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
Center for Management and Economic Research Office for Economic Development
Total Tonnage by Port
200,000,000 180,000,000 160,000,000 Charleston, SC
140,000,000
Miami, FL
120,000,000
Jacksonville, FL
100,000,000
Mobile, AL
80,000,000
Tampa Bay, FL
60,000,000
Norfolk Harbor, VA Houston, TX
40,000,000
New Orleans, LA
20,000,000 0 1990
1991 1992
1993 1994
1995 1996 1997
1998 1999
2000 2001
So urce: Army Corps of Engineers
©The University of Alabama in Huntsville
2002
Center for Management and Economic Research Office for Economic Development
Total Tonnage, by Southeastern Port Average Annual % Growth 1990-2002
Norfolk Harbor, VA Tampa Bay, FL Mobile, AL Jacksonville, FL New Orleans, LA Houston, TX Miami, FL Charleston, SC
-6.00%
-4.00%
-2.00%
0.00%
2.00%
4.00%
©The University of Alabama in Huntsville
6.00%
8.00%
10.00%
Center for Management and Economic Research Office for Economic Development
Volume By Commodity - Port of Mobile 14,000,000
12,000,000
10,000,000 McDuffie Coal
Tons
8,000,000
Garrow s Bend/DRI
6,000,000
4,000,000
Non Containerized General Cargo Bulk Plant
2,000,000 Grain 0 1991
1992
Containerized
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
Year ©The University of Alabama in Huntsville
1998
1999
2000
2001
Center for Management and Economic Research Office for Economic Development
PORT STATISTICS - 2000 TEUs 4,879,429 5000000 4,600,787 4500000
4000000
3500000
3000000
2500000
2000000 1,629,070 1500000 1,074,102 1000000
948,699
868,178 708,028 278,932
500000 8,895 0 LOS ANGELES, CA
LONG BEACH, CA
CHARLESTON, SC
HOUSTON, TX
SAVANNAH, GA
MIAMI, FL
©The University of Alabama in Huntsville
JACKSONVILLE, NEW ORLENAS, FL LA
MIOBILE, AL
Center for Management and Economic Research Office for Economic Development
Total Air Freight 250,000,000 200,000,000
lb s
150,000,000 100,000,000 50,000,000 0 1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
©The University of Alabama in Huntsville
1999
2000
2001
2002
Center for Management and Economic Research Office for Economic Development
Air Freight by Airport 200,000,000 180,000,000
lb s.
160,000,000 140,000,000
Birmingham(BHM)
120,000,000
Huntsville(HSV)
100,000,000
Mobile(MOB)
80,000,000
Mobile(BFM)
60,000,000
Montgomery(MGM)
40,000,000 20,000,000 0 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
©The University of Alabama in Huntsville
Center for Management and Economic Research Office for Economic Development
Legislative Commission on Manufacturing Infrastructure Subcommittee Recommendations The Infrastructure Subcommittee approved the following recommendations on November 18, 2004, for presentation to the Legislative Commission on Manufacturing (Adopted by full commission January 2005): •
That adequate funding be allocated on an annual basis for improvements and additions to the Alabama State Docks necessary to enhance service to existing industry in Alabama, to promote new export and import opportunities, and to foster economic development for the state. Funding for improvements and programs both underway and envisioned by the Alabama State Port Authority as vital to the competitive future of manufacturers across Alabama.
©The University of Alabama in Huntsville
Center for Management and Economic Research Office for Economic Development
Legislative Commission on Manufacturing Infrastructure Subcommittee Recommendations •
A “Blue-Ribbon” Panel on Alabama’s Infrastructure Challenges be formed to evaluate and address the state’s serious infrastructure issues. Currently, no entity exists that is looking at all elements of the total infrastructure picture. The ongoing studies by Dr. Bill Killingsworth at UAH, funded in large part by federal grants (US DOT), show a worsening infrastructure scenario in coming years that could have serious dampening effects on existing industry, economic development and public safety in Alabama. The proposed high-level panel should include Administration officials, legislative leaders, entities such as ALDOT, ADO, ADECA and the State Docks, industry leaders and research experts such as Dr. Killingsworth. The panel should be charged with identifying the nature and depth of the infrastructure challenges we face and proposing possible longterm solutions.
©The University of Alabama in Huntsville
Center for Management and Economic Research Office for Economic Development
Legislative Commission on Manufacturing Infrastructure Subcommittee Recommendations •
A recommendation to the Legislature, the Administration and Alabama’s Congressional Delegation concerning highway funding. The gap in Alabama between road and bridge maintenance needs and the funding to address those needs is a serious threat to economic development, the competitiveness of Alabama industry, and public highway safety. Congress should be urged to quickly re-authorize the Federal Highway Act, providing matching funds to the states. The subcommittee recommends that the state Legislature and the Administration be urged to work together to identify revenue sources needed to assure Alabama’s ability to match the federal funds without taking monies from state highway maintenance projects.
©The University of Alabama in Huntsville
Center for Management and Economic Research Office for Economic Development
Population Infrastructure
Economic Activity
©The University of Alabama in Huntsville
Center for Management and Economic Research Office for Economic Development
Alabama Major Traded Clusters Relative to The United States Economy
Textiles
Agricultural Products
Leather and Sporting Goods
Forest Products
Chemical Products Financial Services
Publishing and Printing
Processed Food
Transportation and Logistics
Tobacco
Education and Knowledge Creation
Communications Equipment
Entertainment
Distribution Services
Heavy Construction Services
Medical Devices Aerospace Vehicles and Defense
Aerospace Engines
Lightning & Electrical Equipment Power Generation
Hospitality and Tourism Jewelry and Precious Metals
Oil and Gas
Pharmaceuticals
Analytical Information Instruments Technology
Fishing and Fishing Products
Construction Materials
Plastics
Footwear
Apparel
Building Furniture Fixtures, Equipment and Services Prefabricated Enclosures
Automotive
Metal Manufacturing Production Technology Heavy Machinery Motor Driven Products
Business Services
Power Transmission and Distr.
©The University of Alabama in Huntsville
Source: Porter, Michael E. , Cluster Mapping Project, Institute for Strategy and Competitiveness, Harvard Business School
Center for Management and Economic Research Office for Economic Development
Major Traded & Target Clusters in Alabama’s Economy 2001
Textiles
Plastics
Apparel
Chemical Products Financial Services Forest Products
Publishing and Printing
Processed Food
Pharmaceuticals
Education and Knowledge Creation
Medical Devices
Information Analytical Technology Instruments
Aerospace Vehicles & Defense **
Transportation Transportation & Logistics and Logistics
Heavy Construction Services
Building Fixtures, Equipment and Services Prefabricated Enclosures
Aerospace Engines Automotive Automotive ** Metal; Metal Manufacturing Production Manufacturing ** Technology Heavy Machinery
Hospitality and Tourism Distribution Services
Motor Driven Motor Driven Products Products ** Business Services
©The University of Alabama in Huntsville
Adapted from work by: Porter, Michael E. , Cluster Mapping Project, Institute for Strategy and Competitiveness, Harvard Business School
Center for Management and Economic Research Office for Economic Development
©The University of Alabama in Huntsville
Center for Management and Economic Research Office for Economic Development
Automotive Production Capacity Expands by 520,000 760,000
F in is h e d A u to s
800,000 600,000
216% growth
400,000 240,000
200,000 2003 ©The University of Alabama in Huntsville
2008
Center for Management and Economic Research Office for Economic Development
Automotive Industry Truck Freight 1,880,000
2,000,000
Shipments
1,800,000 1,600,000 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000,000 800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 -
150% growth
Suppliers
198% growth
750,000
Suppliers
82% growth
OEM OEM 2003
Truck Growth Rate 1 OEM = 3.5 Supplier
©The University of Alabama in Huntsville
2008
Center for Management and Economic Research Office for Economic Development
Waterborne Freight Container Equivalents
Due to Automotive Industry Growth 25,000 19,250
20,000 102% growth
15,000 10,000
9,500
5,000 2003
©The University of Alabama in Huntsville
2008
Center for Management and Economic Research Office for Economic Development
Rail Freight Due to Automotive Industry Growth 80,000
68,500
R a ilc a rs
60,000 171% growth
40,000
25,275
20,000 2003
©The University of Alabama in Huntsville
2008
Center for Management and Economic Research Office for Economic Development
Air Freight
Tons
Due to Automotive Industry Growth 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 -
19% growth
4,200
3,500
2003 ©The University of Alabama in Huntsville
2008
Center for Management and Economic Research Office for Economic Development
Model Development and Projections
©The University of Alabama in Huntsville
Center for Management and Economic Research Office for Economic Development
Traffic Demand Modeling Network
©The University of Alabama in Huntsville
Center for Management and Economic Research Office for Economic Development
175 Miles of Congested Facility
©The University of Alabama in Huntsville
Center for Management and Economic Research Office for Economic Development
2008 Volume to Capacity Ratios Using Historical Trend Analysis
390 Miles of Congested Facility
©The University of Alabama in Huntsville
Center for Management and Economic Research Office for Economic Development
2008 Volume to Capacity Ratios with Automotive & Aerospace Cluster Information Included 840 Miles of Congested Facility
Forecas t Change 2002 to Historic al
2008 AADT Forecast with Specific Cluster Growth
Forecast Change 2002 to 2008 with Industry Clusters
Map Point
2002 AADT
2008 AADT Historical Trend Forecast
A
33,260
40,143
20.7%
44,170
32.8%
B
38,010
45,255
19.1%
50,393
32.6%
C
36,360
52,265
43.7%
58,143
59.9%
D
52,430
59,868
14.2%
62,030
18.3%
E
83,780
90,567
8.1%
99,148
18.3%
F
104,530
130,581
24.9%
139,977
33.9%
G
19,240
21,206
10.2%
28,162
46.4%
H
31,940
35,367
10.7%
38,060
19.2%
I
34,840
43,846
25.8%
47,777
37.1%
J
21,550
28,023
30.0%
29,449
36.7%
©The University of Alabama in Huntsville
Center for Management and Economic Research Office for Economic Development
Traffic Levels on Interstate 20 with Capacity Indicated 250000
D a ily V o lu m e s
200000
150000
Capacity
Volume 2002 Mercedes Mile Marker 89
100000
Trendline Volume 2008
Honda Mile Marker 168
Model Forecasted Volume 2008
50000
0 0
50
100
150
Milepost on Interstate 20 ©The University of Alabama in Huntsville
200
Center for Management and Economic Research Office for Economic Development
Traffic Levels on Interstate 10 with Capacity Indicated 120000 State Docks Mile Marker 26
100000
D a ily V o lu m e s
80000 Capacity Volume 2002
60000
Trendline Volume 2008 Model Forecasted Volume 2008
40000
20000
0 0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Milepost on Interstate 10 ©The University of Alabama in Huntsville
45
50
Center for Management and Economic Research Office for Economic Development
Traffic Levels on Interstate 65 with Capacity Indicated 200000 180000 160000
D aily V o lu m es
140000 120000
Capacity
Hyundai Mile Marker 164
100000
Volume 2002
Trendline Volume 2008
Model Forecasted Volume 2008
80000 60000 40000 20000 0 0
50
100
150
200
250
Milepost on Interstate 65
©The University of Alabama in Huntsville
300
350
Center for Management and Economic Research Office for Economic Development
Traffic Levels on Interstate 59 with Capacity Indicated 250000
D a ily V o lu m e s
200000
150000
Capacity
Volume 2002
Trendline Volume 2008
Model Forecasted Volume 2008
100000
50000
0 0
50
100
150
200
Milepost on Interstate 59
©The University of Alabama in Huntsville
250
Center for Management and Economic Research Office for Economic Development
Traffic Levels on Interstate 85 with Capacity Indicated 180000 160000 140000
D a ily V o lu m es
120000 Capacity
100000
Volume 2002 Trendline Volume 2008 Model Forecasted Volume 2008
80000 60000 40000 20000 0 0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Milepost on Interstate 85 ©The University of Alabama in Huntsville
70
80
Center for Management and Economic Research Office for Economic Development
Summary and Conclusions
©The University of Alabama in Huntsville
Center for Management and Economic Research Office for Economic Development
Findings • Alabama has a multi-modal transportation network that includes:
Highways; Navigable Inland Waterways; Deep Sea Port; Service by Multiple Railroads; and International Air Cargo.
• The network of transportation infrastructure, however, is currently functioning as independent modalities, not as a system. As a result, the transportation infrastructure of Alabama is not realizing the maximum ROI. • This transportation infrastructure will play a determining role in the on-going transition of Alabama’s economy from a natural resource and agricultural based economy to a manufacturing and knowledge based economy. The network can play either an enabling or constraining role in economic growth and transition. ©The University of Alabama in Huntsville
Center for Management and Economic Research Office for Economic Development
Findings • Trends and developments create both opportunities and looming crises for the Alabama economy and its transportation infrastructure. ◦ Continuing Deterioration of Alabama’s highways and bridges; ◦ Rapid Growth of the Automotive Industry; ◦ Expansion of the Alabama State Docks; and ◦ On-going urban/suburban sprawl.
• Key sections of Alabama’s highways face rapidly growing congestion. In 2002, there were 175 miles of interstate with average daily traffic flow in excess of capacity. By 2008, it will grow to 840 miles (380%). • Freight shipments on inland waterways have dramatically declined. ©The University of Alabama in Huntsville
Center for Management and Economic Research Office for Economic Development
Findings • The Alabama State Docks is developing a major container handling facility. However the lack of a designated north south intermodal rail line in Alabama constrains intermodal cargo to east-west destinations. • Truck shipments of containers must increase to handle the growth anticipated at the State Docks. • Transportation infrastructure planning based upon independent modalities and a non-systemic view is inadequate. Trend line forecasts are incomplete.
©The University of Alabama in Huntsville
Center for Management and Economic Research Office for Economic Development
Recommendations • Near-term solutions must be identified and evaluated to address the looming interstate congestion crises. • Establish freight demand functions based upon industry clusters. • Develop robust analytical tools to evaluate and project infrastructure performance utilizing industry cluster research. ©The University of Alabama in Huntsville
Center for Management and Economic Research Office for Economic Development
Recommendations • Assess the impact of modern supply chain strategies on freight movement and traffic. • Determine the drivers and policy issues that affect the dynamics of freight mode selection. • Develop a System Dynamics model that incorporates the long-term interrelationships between population, transportation infrastructure and economic growth. ©The University of Alabama in Huntsville
Center for Management and Economic Research Office for Economic Development
Relationships Between Major Components of the ATIM Model & Vehicle Settings
User/Data Input
Transportation Network •Nodes/Locations •Links •Speed Calculations
Vehicle Routing •Arrivals •Paths
©The University of Alabama in Huntsville
Performance Measures
Output
Center for Management and Economic Research Office for Economic Development
P-I-E Interrelationship Model
©The University of Alabama in Huntsville
