Transportation Fuels & Plug-in Electric Vehicles Utility Collaboration Dan Bowermaster Program Manager, Electric Transportation MGA Webinar January 20, 2015
© 2015 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Contents State of the Plug-in Electric Vehicle Industry What Is Around the Corner Utility Actions Closing Thoughts
2 © 2015 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Cumulative PEV Sales In USA Exceed 290k 119k Sold in 2014 (Versus 97k in 2013) 300,000 275,000 250,000 225,000
Total Sales
200,000 175,000 150,000 125,000 100,000 75,000 50,000 25,000
Nissan
GM
Tesla
Toyota
Ford
Other
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PHEV/EREV
BEV
Dec-14
Oct-14
Aug-14
Jun-14
Apr-14
Feb-14
Dec-13
Oct-13
Aug-13
Jun-13
Apr-13
Feb-13
Dec-12
Oct-12
Aug-12
Jun-12
Apr-12
Feb-12
Dec-11
Oct-11
Aug-11
Jun-11
Apr-11
Feb-11
Dec-10
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Regulatory Push – California has Mandated 1.5M ZEVs by 2025 (3.3M including seven other states)
We Are Here
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Plug-In Electric Vehicles Fuel Cell Vehicles
Auto Industry Investing $ Billions In New PEVs 6 PEVs Arrived In 2014 and More On The Way Make
Model
Type
Body Style
Battery (kWh)
AER (miles)
Launch
BMW
i3
BEV; REx
5 door hatchback
22
84/72
Q2 2014
Mercedes
B-Class
BEV
5 door hatchback
36
104
Q3 2014
BMW
i8
PHEV
Sports car
7.1
15
Q3 2014
KIA
Soul
BEV
5 door hatchback
27
95
Q4 2014
Porsche
Cayenne
PHEV
SUV
10.8
22
Q4 2014
VW
eGolf
BEV
5 door hatchback
24
83
Q4 2014
5 © 2015 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Auto Industry Investing $ Billions In New PEVs 15+ Models Are On The Way Make
Model
Type
Body Style
Battery (kWh)
AER (miles)
Launch
Hyundai
Sonata
PHEV
Sedan
9.8
22
Q1 2015
Chevrolet
Volt
PHEV
Hatchback
18.4
50
Q3 2015
BMW
X5
PHEV
SUV
9
20
Q3 2015
Audi
A3 etron
PHEV
Wagon
8.8
30
Q3 2015
Mercedes
C350
PHEV
Luxury sedan
6.2
20
Q4 2015
Tesla
Model X
BEV
SUV/Crossover
TBD
250
Q4 2015
Mercedes
S-Class
PHEV
Luxury sedan
TBD
TBD
Q4 2015
Volvo
XC90 T8
PHEV
SUV
9.2
20
Q4 2015
Mitsubishi
Outlander
PHEV
SUV/Crossover
TBD
TBD
2016
Chrysler
Town & Country
PHEV
Minivan
TBD
TBD
2016
Volvo
V60
PHEV
Wagon
TBD
TBD
2016
Audi
Q7 etron
PHEV
SUV
TBD
25
Q4 2016
Nissan
Leaf
BEV
Hatchback
TBD
TBD
Q4 2016
Chevrolet
Bolt
BEV
Hatchback
TBD
200
Q4 2017
VW
Cross Coupe
PHEV
SUV
14.1
20
Q4 2017
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2016 Chevrolet Volt 50 Mile All-Electric Range Arrives Q3 2015
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2018 Chevrolet Bolt 200 Miles All-Electric Range Arrives Q4 2017
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PEV ‘State of the Nation’ and Looking Ahead Market – Sales strong through Q4 2014 – over 290,000 in the USA (+20% YOY) Leaf sold 30k in 2014; PHEVs lower Major launches 2014-2015 by BMW, Mercedes, VW, Mitsubishi, Audi, Porsche, and Tesla – Mercedes will offer 10 plug-in models by 2017 – Honda announced BEV and PHEV by 2018 – Next-gen Chevy Volt, Nissan Leaf, Toyota Prius (2016/2017 model year) – Oil/gas prices expected to stay low – what does this mean for PEV sales? New PEV buyer – mainstream New PEV buyer – Tesla buyer PEV drivers finishing up with Gen 1 Volt/LEAF/etc.
Charging infrastructure – More focus on workplace and MUDs and less on public – Proprietary networks versus OCPP – Utility role Georgia Power now offering businesses $500 rebate for L2 install CA IOU proposals (see next page) 9 © 2015 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
CA CPUC Now Considering Utility Infrastructure Proposals
Note: Should be 5,000 for SDG&E and 30,000 for SCE
Source: Slide presented by Adam Langton, CPUC, Silicon Valley Leadership Group/PG&E PEV Workshop, Palo Alto, CA, December 16, 2014
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What About Impact on the Grid? Open Standards-based Vehicle-Grid-Integration Gives Flexibility • OEMs Evaluating Direct Path • Chrysler • Mercedes • Toyota
• OEMs Evaluating B2B Path • BMW • GM • Ford • Honda • Toyota Goal: Evaluate system-level cost and performance trade-offs among various information paths while enabling all approaches 11 © 2015 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
What About Smart Charging? Vehicle-to-Grid? Does Anyone Know? One Viewpoint: Open VGI Platform Overview
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Phase 1: Proof Of Concept for Open VGI Platform “The Big Demo” Sacramento • Status: completed 10/16/2014 at SMUD • Action: sent single signal to stop and start charging of seven PEVs
Charge Status Display
Result: Success! Plugged In
The Line Up: 7 OEM PEVs Plugged In 13 © 2015 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
A Few Closing Thoughts From the Mainstream Automotive Press
“Most Tesla Model S owners will be happy with 240V charging at home. Plug it in at night, sleep, and wake to a car ready for another 200-mile day. Beats pumping gas.” – “Tesla Model S P85D.” Car and Driver, Feb 2015: 52. Print.
“Audi, BMW, Mercedes-Benz, and Porsche are about to invest a combined $7.5B in new high-end electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids due out between 2018 and 2021. Their target: the American upstart from Silicon Valley.” – Kacher, Georg. “Germany’s Plan to Shock Tesla.” Automobile, Feb 2015: 52. Print.
14 © 2015 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.