Transmission Lines and Property Values: Briefing Paper
Prepared for
Clean Line Energy Partners LLC Houston, Texas
April 2015
Thomas Priestley, PhD 1000 Wilshire Boulevard, Suite 2100 Los Angeles, CA 90017
Introduction
Proposals to develop new electric transmission lines often raise concerns about the potential of the lines to adversely affect the value of nearby properties. These concerns are often based on anecdote and conjecture, which can generate public apprehension and lead to unwarranted assumptions about the project’s potential impacts on property values. The question of whether and the extent to which transmission lines may affect the value of nearby properties has been the subject of systematic research for nearly 50 years. The accumulated body of knowledge provides a reliable basis for considering transmission line/property value concerns. This report provides a brief summary of available research that has taken a careful look at what effects transmission lines have actually had on the sales prices of properties in the areas surrounding them. This report emphasizes the findings of the most recent peer-reviewed studies, and the studies that are relevant to the proposed Plains and Eastern Clean Line project.
Overview of the Research
The earliest studies of the potential effects of electric transmission lines on the value of nearby properties date from the 1950s and consist of analyses prepared by appraisers. In approximately 1975, the research activity devoted to studying the influence of transmission lines on property value issues increased and the research approaches became more rigorous, using more powerful analytic tools. From 1975 through the early 1990s, a substantial body of research on the transmission line/property value relationships was generated in the U.S. and Canada. With the drop-off in the level of transmission line development activity that occurred starting in the mid-1990s, there was also a decline in the volume of transmission line/property value research. In spite of this drop in research activity in the 1990s, several important and valuable studies have been completed in recent years. Reviews of the research that has been done on transmission line/property value relationships, include those by Kinnard (1988 and 1989), Kroll and Priestley (1992), Kinnard and Dickey, (1995), Priestley (2009), and Jackson and Pitts (2010). As Kroll and Priestley indicate in their 1992 review, the transmission line/property value research can be divided into three categories: appraiser studies, attitudinal surveys, and statistical analyses. The term “appraiser studies” refers to studies conducted by real estate appraisers applying the traditional tools of their profession. Up until about 1975, most studies of the influence of transmission lines on property values were conducted by appraisers. These studies used paired-sales analysis, which entails comparing sales prices of properties located close to the transmission line with the sales prices of carefully matched properties located in areas presumed to be out of the transmission line’s zone of influence, and then noting any price differences, which are assumed to be related to the property’s proximity to the transmission line. One of the difficulties in using the paired sales approach is that identifying pairs of essentially identical properties requires a great deal of judgment, and finding a sufficient number of pairs to provide a representative sample of the market is often difficult (Kinnard and Dickey, 1995). A critical concern is that the paired sales approach may not provide statistically reliable results, because differences between the properties (unrelated to transmission line proximity) may contribute to the price differences between the properties (Kroll and Priestley, 1992). Attitudinal surveys are used to determine how property owners or real estate professionals perceive the effect of transmission lines on property sale values. Results of attitudinal surveys must be treated with great caution, because what residents and even real estate professionals say about perceived effects of transmission lines on property values may in fact be quite different from actual effects that occur. For example, in a summary of an advanced analysis of a comprehensive survey of perceptions of those living near transmission lines, Priestley and Evans found respondents may have a tendency to overstate the transmission line’s effects (Priestley and Evans, 1996). In a 1994 conference paper, William Kinnard and colleagues (Kinnard, Geckler, and Dickey 1994) observe that there can be a significant divergence between opinions expressed in the abstract, in response to a survey question, and actual behavior (Kinnard, et al., TRANSMISSION LINES AND PROPERTY VALUES BRIEFING PAPER 041715__FINAL
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1994). For example, Kinnard et al. cite their findings in a study of the property value impacts of a transmission line in Orange County, New York, in which they interviewed real estate professionals active in the local market and owners of properties adjacent to the transmission lines, in addition to conducting statistical analyses of the actual effect of the transmission line on sales prices. They found that the real estate professionals had a more negative perception of the transmission line’s effects on property values than the owners of the properties. They also found that these perceptions of negative effect were not supported by the analysis of the actual sales prices, which found no statistically significant reduction in the sales prices of properties located alongside the transmission line (Kinnard et al., 1988). Since the mid-1970s, there has been increasing reliance on statistical analyses that use multiple regression analysis in the hedonic pricing model format to determine the effect of proximity to transmission lines on property values. Regression analysis is a statistical method by which the changes in a variable of interest, known as the dependent variable (which in a property value study would be the sales prices of the properties in the study area), are explained as a function of changes in other factors that are known as explanatory variables, or regressors. Regression analysis allows the relationship between the dependent variable and each of the explanatory variables to be included in a model and estimated, providing a numerical estimator for each relationship. The hedonic pricing model format that is used to structure the regression model assumes that the amount paid for the purchase of a property reflects the value placed on specific attributes of the home and property, including contextual factors. Using this approach allows the relationship between property value and the variables that determine it to be statistically isolated, and the relative contribution to property value of each of the explanatory variables to be identified. The use of the multiple regression approach requires a large data set of sales in the area of potential impact, and in a control area. For each sale, data is required for variables related to the broad spectrum of factors potentially affecting sales price, including variables that measure the distance from and the visibility of the 1 transmission line. Through application of multiple regression analysis in the hedonic pricing model format, it is possible to identify each variable that has a statistically significant effect on property sales value in the study area, and to identify the percentage of the total sales value that can be attributed to each of the variables. At present, the multiple regression/hedonic modeling approach is favored by academic researchers and professionals as the means to identify the effects of proximity to transmission lines on sales prices (Kinnard and Dickey, 1995). Hedonic modeling is also in widespread use for evaluating the effects of other environmental and contextual variables on property value.2 The value of the multiple regression/hedonic modeling studies is that, because they reflect the prices that buyers actually pay, rather than speculation about what buyers might do under hypothesized conditions, they are more reliably reflective of actual transmission line effects than the attitudinal surveys. In addition, the use of large sample sizes and advanced statistical techniques makes the results of the multiple regression/hedonic modeling studies considerably more reliable than those of the paired-sales studies. F
Key Findings
Although the research thus far is not unanimous in its conclusions, when taken as a whole, it provides a general basis for understanding possible transmission line/property value relationships. The following sections summarize results of these studies that are relevant to the proposed Plains and Eastern Clean Line project.
1
For a detailed review of the variables included in studies of this type, the efforts required to generate this data, and the strategies for analyzing it, see Ignelzi and Priestley 1989. 2 For example, a journal article by Boyle and Kiel (2001) reviews a large number of studies based on hedonic modeling that evaluate the property value effects of air quality; water quality; distance from undesirable land uses, including nuclear and fossil fuel electric power plants, hazardous waste sites, landfills, incinerators, and heavy industrial facilities; multiple environmental pollutants; and neighborhood factors, such as location relative to roads, public transportation, and airports, school quality, crime levels, and water amenities. 2
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Impacts on Single Family Residences
Most of the research studies based on paired-sales analysis have found that transmission lines have no effect on the value of nearby single-family residences. The following studies support this conclusion:
A Study of Transmission Line Effects on Subdivisions in Harris County, Texas (Blanton, 1980)
Real Estate Market Data Analysis (for a proposed 230 kV Electrical Transmission Line, Transylvania County, North Carolina). (Earley and Earley, 1988)
Transmission Line Impact on Property Values, and Transmission Line Impact on Property Values; Supplemental Study: Visibility (Rhodeside and Harwell and A. White,3 1992 and 1995).
Transmission line impact on residential property values; a study of three Pacific Northwest metropolitan areas (Cowger, Bottemiller, and Cahill, 1996)
Impacts on residential property values along transmission lines; an update study of three Pacific Northwest metropolitan areas (Bottemiller, Cahill, and Cowger, 2000)
In addition, the following studies using statistical analysis found that transmission lines do not have a significant effect on the sales prices of nearby properties, including single-family homes.
An Analysis of the Impact of High Voltage Electric Transmission Lines on Residential Property Values in Orange County, New York. Storrs, Connecticut: Real Estate Counseling Group of Connecticut (Kinnard et al., 1984)
Effects of Proximity to High-Voltage Electric Transmission Lines on Sales Prices and Market Values of Vacant Land and Single-Family Residential Property: January 1978 - June 1988, (An Analysis of Real Estate Market Activity in Penobscot County, Maine) (Kinnard, 1988)
Evidence Of EMF Impacts On Nearby Residential Property Values. Price Effects from Publication of and Widespread Publicity About the Floderus and Ahlborn-Feychting Studies in Sweden and Effects Of Proximity To High Voltage Transmission Lines On Nearby Residential Property Values: An International Perspective On Recent Research (Kinnard, 1997a and 1997b)
Further analysis of transmission line impact on residential property values (Wolverton and Bottemiller, 2003)
A few of the paired-sales studies, as well as many of the studies that relied on multiple regression analysis, found that transmission lines’ effect on the sales values of nearby single-family residences are limited, generally ranging from 2 to 10 percent (Van Court and Company, 1988) (Ignelzi and Priestley, 1991) (Hamilton and Schwann, 1996) (Chalmers and Voorvart, 2009). A number of studies provide evidence that overhead transmission lines and their rights-of-way may have positive effects on the value of some properties in some cases. The degree to which this occurs depends on the circumstances of the line itself, the neighborhood, and the improvements made to the right-of-way. These positive effects are most likely to occur in urban and suburban areas where the transmission line rights-of-way create an open space corridor. The most frequently mentioned benefit of having a property located next to a transmission line right-of-way is the advantage of having one less neighbor (Blanton, 1980). In one of the neighborhoods included in Ignelzi and Priestley’s 1991 study, the right-of-way of an existing transmission line was integrated into the design of the subdivision that was developed around it; the transmission line was landscaped, and turned into a neighborhood amenity. In this neighborhood, location next to the right-of-way has had a positive impact on sales prices. The Des Rosiers study found that, for
3 In two of the three Virginia regions analyzed, Rhodeside and Harwell found no effect on the value of properties located adjacent to transmission line rights-of-way. In the Eastern region, they found that location adjacent to a right-of-way was associated with an increase in property value. TRANSMISSION LINES AND PROPERTY VALUES BRIEFING PAPER 041715__FINAL
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properties located next to the transmission line right-of-way, but not right next to a transmission tower, there is a positive price impact that ranges from 7 to 22 percent (Des Rosiers, 2003). Des Rosiers also found that for properties that were not immediately adjacent to the right-of-way, but for which the transmission corridor affords views that have an open character, the presence of the corridor creates property value increases in the range of 3 to 4 percent. These findings are consistent with the findings of some of the perception studies. For example, Rhodeside and Harwell found that in a Northern Virginia suburban area, residents perceived a heavily wooded transmission line right-of-way to be an aesthetic amenity (Rhodeside and Harwell, 1988). A comprehensive survey of those living in neighborhoods around a transmission line found that residents evaluated the landscaping of the right-of-way in a positive way (Priestley and Evans, 1996). This same study also found that those who made informal use of the right-of-way for recreational activities tended to evaluate the transmission line in more positive ways than those who didn’t use the rightof-way. Des Rosiers provides an apt summary of the findings of the research on transmission line effects on property values in his observation that, “In short, most studies conclude that proximity to a [high voltage transmission line] per se does not necessarily lead to a drop in the value of surrounding properties and that other physical as well as neighborhood variables prevail in the price determination process” (Des Rosiers, 2002).
Impacts on Vacant Residential Land
In an evaluation of the impacts of transmission lines on the sales prices of vacant residential land in two subdivisions, Blinder found no effect on the value of lots in one subdivision and a negative effect on the value of lots on the other (Blinder, 1979). In a study in Maine, Kinnard found that a high voltage transmission line did not have a statistically significant effect on the sales prices of vacant parcels with potential for development for residential use (Kinnard, 1988). A study of vacant land with potential for future residential development along the route of a high voltage transmission line in New York State (Kinnard and Mitchell 1988 and Mitchell and Kinnard 1996) found that once it was in place, the transmission line did not have a significant effect on the sales value of these properties.
Impacts on Rural and Agricultural Land
The effect of transmission lines on the sales prices of rural and agricultural properties has received less attention than transmission line effects on single family residences. A recent effort to provide an understanding of these issues is a 2012 study conducted by James Chalmers, who evaluated the sales of rural properties that occurred between 2000 and 2010 along a 500-kV transmission line in Montana. The rural properties studied represent a wide range of terrain, character, and land uses that are relatively similar to that found along the proposed route for the Plains & Eastern Clean Line, including lands with varying combinations of agricultural, recreational, and rural residential use. In brief, Chalmers found that on production agricultural lands (a category that includes both cropland and range lands), there was no evidence supporting a transmission line effect on sales price. For agricultural lands with recreational influence (for example, having a high level of environmental amenity) and agricultural lands with high amenity recreation and natural features (for example, having a river or trout stream, a historic character, or spectacular views), there was also no evidence of a transmission line effect on sales price. There was also no evidence of a price effect on sales of large-acreage rural residential tracts (that is, tracts ranging from 60 acres to 591 acres) or of recreational tracts and cabin sites. One of the insights that Chalmers developed based on this research is that higher levels of recreational use on a rural property do not necessarily make the property more sensitive to adverse property value effects from a transmission line. He noted that when there are recreational uses on an agricultural property, there are often other variables at work having to do with the mix of the property’s attributes that tend to dilute the transmission line’s effect (Chalmers, 2012). A statistical study conducted by Brown on agricultural properties crossed by transmission lines in Saskatchewan found no adverse impact on property sales prices (Brown, 1976). Other studies, noted below, have found the effect of transmission lines on the sales prices of agricultural parcels that are expected to remain in agricultural use for the long term generally in the range of a few percentage points. In a study of 4
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high voltage lines in agricultural areas in Ontario, Woods Gordon found no effects in two out of the six areas studied, and positive effects in two of the other areas (Woods Gordon 1981). The positive effects were attributed to the fact that, although the utility corridors were owned by the utility, the farmers were able to use the land in these corridors for free or for a low fee. In the remaining two areas, negative effects were found. These negative effects were attributed to the fact that these areas were in regions where residential development was taking place, creating a potential for conversion of the agricultural parcels to residential use. In a study of agricultural sales in Arizona that took place later in the 1980s, Thomas A. Ball found a decrease of two percent in the sales prices of the agricultural properties evaluated (Ball 1989). The most recent major statistical study of the impacts of transmission lines on the value of agricultural properties is the one undertaken by Thomas Jackson in Wisconsin. Jackson evaluated the sales of a large sample of agricultural parcels, some of which were crossed by transmission lines, and some of which were not. Jackson’s general finding was that on the parcels crossed by the transmission lines, there were 1.11% to 2.44% decreases in sales value that could be attributed to the presence of the lines, and that the decreases were too small to be statistically significant or attributable to the presence of the line alone (Jackson 2010). The Plains and Eastern Draft Environmental Impact Statement discussion of property value impacts includes a statement that “A review of studies of impacts on agricultural land found that overhead transmission lines have the potential to reduce the sales price and the effect can vary widely, ranging from no effect to a decrease of 20 percent or more.” (U.S. Department of Energy 2014. Plains and Eastern DEIS, Section 3.13.6.2.5, p. 3.13-53, ln 8-10.) It is important to note that even though the source provided to support this statement is Kroll and Priestley 1992, this statement is not a direct quotation from the Kroll and Priestley literature review. Rather it is a summary developed by the author of the DEIS property value section based on a reading of the Kroll and Priestley report. The DEIS fails to note that the 20% decrease figure cited is a finding of a single appraiser study that Kroll and Priestley had mentioned in their review, and that this figure is not consistent with the findings of other research on transmission line effects on the value of agricultural properties. Rather than reflecting the representative range, the range stated in the DEIS is bracketed by an outlier that is considerably higher than the findings of the other studies involving agricultural land included in Kroll and Priestley’s 1992 review. In addition, the range stated in the DEIS is at substantial variance with the findings of the most recent research, which has established that a transmission line crossing an agricultural parcel has either no effect (Chalmers 2012) or an effect in the range of several percentage points that is not statistically significant (Jackson 2010).
Distance Effects
Several studies that have found transmission lines to affect property values include findings that the effects are highest in the areas closest to the transmission line and taper off quickly with distance. Colwell and Foley, for example, found any effect drops off very quickly with increasing distance, decreasing to zero after 200 feet from the centerline of the transmission line easement (Colwell and Foley, 1979). The multiple regression analysis/hedonic model study conducted by Hamilton and Schwann in 1996 found that any property value effect decreases with distance, decreasing to zero at 200 meters (626 feet) from the transmission towers
Temporal Effects
In the studies that have found an effect to property values due to the development of a new transmission line or upgrading of an old transmission line, the evidence suggests that such property value effects may decrease over time. Colwell and Foley found that property value impacts in their study area decreased over time, leading them to speculate that the decrease may have been related to the growth of vegetation that increased the extent to which the transmission line was screened from view (Colwell and Foley, 1979). In a study of a transmission line upgrade, Ignelzi and Priestley found that the effects were greatest in the first year after the upgrade was completed and tapered off quickly, disappearing nearly completely within 5 years (Ignelzi and Priestley, 1991). TRANSMISSION LINES AND PROPERTY VALUES BRIEFING PAPER 041715__FINAL
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References
Ball, Thomas A. 1989. A Study of the Economic Effects of High Voltage Electrical Transmission Lines on the Market Value of Real Properties. Prepared for Salt River Project, Phoenix. Tempe. March. Blanton, Herman W. 1980. A Study of Transmission Line Effects on Subdivisions in Harris County, Texas. Prepared for Gulf States Utility Company. Blinder, Calvin L. 1981. The effect of high voltage overhead transmission lines on residential property value. Tillman, R. E, ed. Environmental Concerns in Rights of Way Management, Proceedings of Second Symposium Held October 16 - 18, 1979. Palo Alto: Electric Power Research Institute. Bottemiller, S., J. Cahill, and J. Cowger, 2000. Impacts on residential property values along transmission lines; an update study of three Pacific Northwest metropolitan areas. Right of Way. 18 (July August): 18-20, 55. Boyle, M. and K Kiel, 2001. A survey of house price hedonic studies of the impact of environmental externalities. Journal of Real Estate Literature. 9 (2): 117-144. Brown, Dean J.A. 1976. The effect of power line structures and easements on farm land values. Right of Way. (December 1975 - January 1976): 33-38. Chalmers, James A. 2012. High Voltage Transmission Lines and Rural, Western Real Estate Values. The Appraisal Journal. Winter 2012. Pp. 30-45. Chalmers, James A. and Frank Voorvart. 2009. High Voltage Transmission Lines: Proximity, Visibility, and Encumbrance Effects. The Appraisal Journal. Summer, 2009. Pp 227-245. Colwell, Peter F. 1990. Power lines and land value. Journal of Real Estate Research. 5 (1): 117-127. Colwell, Peter F. and Kenneth W. Foley. 1979. Electric Transmission Lines and the Selling Price of Residential Property. The Appraisal Journal. October, 1979: 490-499. Cowger, J., S. Bottemiller, and J. Cahill. 1996. Transmission line impact on residential property values; a study of three Pacific Northwest metropolitan areas. Right of Way. 43 (September/October): 13-17. Des Rosiers, 2002. Power lines, visual encumbrance and house values: a microspatial approach to impact measurement. Journal of Real Estate Research. 23 (3): 275-301. Earley, Edward M., and Michael H. Earley. 1988. Real Estate Market Data Analysis (for a proposed 230 kV Electrical Transmission Line, Transylvania County, North Carolina). Report prepared for Duke Power Company. Golden, Colorado. Hamilton, S. and G. Schwann, 1995. Do high voltage electric transmission lines affect property value? Land Economics. 71 (4): 436-44. Ignelzi, P. and T. Priestley, 1989. A Methodology for Assessing Transmission Line Impacts in Residential Communities. Prepared for Edison Electric Institute Siting and Environmental Planning Task Force, Washington, DC. Ignelzi, P. and T. Priestley. 1991. A Statistical Analysis of Transmission Line Impacts on Residential Property Values in Six Neighborhoods. Final Report Prepared for Pacific Consulting Services, Albany, CA, 110 pp. Jackson, Thomas. 2010. Electric Transmission Lines: Is There an Impact on Rural Land Values? Right of Way. November/December 2010. Pp. 32-35 Jackson, Thomas O. and Jennifer Pitts. 2010. The Effects of Electric Transmission Lines on Property Values: A Literature Review. Journal of Real Estate Literature. Vol. 18. No. 2, pp 239-259 Kinnard, William N. Jr., M.B. Geckler, J.K. Geckler, J.B. Kinnard, and P.S. Mitchell. 1984. An Analysis of the Impact of High Voltage Electric Transmission Lines on Residential Property Values in Orange County, New York. Storrs, Connecticut: Real Estate Counseling Group of Connecticut. May. 6
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Kinnard, William N. Jr. 1988. The Effect of High-Voltage Overhead Transmission Lines on Sales Prices and Market Values of Nearby Real Estate: An Annotated Bibliography and Evaluative Analysis. Prepared for Central Maine Power Company by The Real Estate Counseling Group of Connecticut, Inc. September. Kinnard, William N. Jr., and Philip S. Mitchell. 1988. Effects of Proximity to Marcy South Transmission Line Right of Way on Vacant Land Sales: Towns of Hamptonburgh and Wawayanda, Orange County, New York, January 1983 - December 1987. Storrs, Connecticut: Real Estate Counseling Group of Connecticut. May. Kinnard, William N. Jr., John K. Geckler, Jeffrey B. Kinnard, and Phillip S. Mitchell. 1988. Effects of Proximity to High-Voltage Electric Transmission Lines on Sales Prices and Market Values of Vacant Land and SingleFamily Residential Property: January 1978 - June 1988, (An Analysis of Real Estate Market Activity in Penobscot County, Maine). Storrs, Connecticut: Real Estate Counseling Group of Connecticut. December. Kinnard, W., M. Geckler, and S. Dickey. 1994. Fear (As A Measure of Damages) Strikes Out: Two Case Studies Comparisons Of Actual Market Behavior With Opinion Survey Research. A Paper Prepared for Presentation at the 1994 Annual Conference American Real Estate Society. Santa Barbara, California. April 16. Kinnard, W. and S Dickey, 1995. A primer on proximity impact research: residential property values near high-voltage transmission lines. Real Estate Issues. 20 (1):23-29. Kinnard, W., M. Geckler, and J. DeLottie. 1997a. Post-1992 Evidence Of EMF Impacts On Nearby Residential Property Values. Price Effects from Publication of and Widespread Publicity About the Floderus and AhlbornFeychting Studies in Sweden. A Paper Presented at the 1997 Annual Conference American Real Estate Society. Sarasota, Florida. April 16-19. Kinnard, W., S. Bond, P. Syms, and J. DeLottie. 1997b. Effects Of Proximity To High Voltage Transmission Lines On Nearby Residential Property Values: An International Perspective On Recent Research. A Presentation at the 1997 International Conference American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, University of California at Berkeley, Berkeley, California. May. Kroll, C., and T. Priestley, 1992. The Effects of Overhead Transmission Lines on Property Values. Edison Electric Institute Siting and Environmental Planning Task Force, Washington, D.C., 101 pp. Mitchell, P. and W. Kinnard. 1996. Statistical analysis of high-voltage overhead transmission line construction on the value of vacant land. Valuation. June: 23-29. Priestley, Thomas. 2009. Transmission Lines and Property Values: Review of the Research and Summary of Key Findings. Prepared for the Montana Department of Environmental Quality, June, 2009. Priestley, T. and G. Evans. 1996. Resident perceptions of a nearby electric transmission line. Journal of Environmental Psychology. 16: 65-74. Rhodeside & Harwell, Incorporated. 1988. Perceptions of Power Lines: Residents' Attitudes. Prepared for Virginia Power. Alexandria, Virginia: Rhodeside and Harwell. Rhodeside and Harwell and A. White, 1992. Transmission Line Impact on Property Values. Prepared for Virginia Power. Alexandria, Virginia: Rhodeside and Harwell. Rhodeside and Harwell and A. White, 1995. Transmission Line Impact on Property Values; Supplemental Study: Visibility. Prepared for Virginia Power. Alexandria, Virginia: Rhodeside and Harwell. U.S. Department of Energy. 2014. Draft Environmental Impact Statement for the Plains & Eastern Clean Line Transmission Line Project. Van Court and Company. 1988. Real Estate Appraisals: Greenwood-Daniels Park 115/230 KV Conversion-Arapahoe County, Colorado. Wolverton, M., and S. Bottemiller. 2003. Further analysis of transmission line impact on residential property values. The Appraisal Journal. July (71 3): 244-252. TRANSMISSION LINES AND PROPERTY VALUES BRIEFING PAPER 041715__FINAL
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Woods Gordon (Management Consultants). 1981. Study on the Economic Impact of Electric Transmission Corridors on Rural Property Values: Final Report.
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