FFC-PEP SCHOOL TRAINING ON POVERTY AND ECONOMIC POLICY ANALYSIS
TRAINING SESSION ON CGE MODELING THREE BASIC CGE MODELS
Hélène Maisonnave and Véronique Robichaud FFC-PEP WORKSHOP – MIDRAND, SOUTH AFRICA AUGUST 2010
Table of contents Table of contents Model AUTA: A Closed Economy without Government Model AUTETA: A Closed Economy with Government Model EXTER: A Open Economy with Government Model EXTER 2: Non -Infinite Foreign Demand for Exports
1 5 13 23 35
Acknowledgement The training material was prepared by Hélène Maisonnave and Véronique Robichaud. In this document we present basic CGE models from Decaluwé, B., A. Martens and L. Savard (2001), « La politique économique du développement et les modèles d'équilibre général calculable. Une introduction », Montréal, Presses de l'Université de Montréal, 524 p. This material can be used freely by participants as long as correct reference is made to the source of the models.
Model AUTA: A Closed Economy without Government Social accounting matrix Equations and variables Simulation results
6
FFC-PEP Workshop, August 2010 ES,HW SHHW YHHW
8. Services
9. Accumulation
TOTAL (1 to 9) RK
EI,HW
7. Industry
WL
EA,HW
RKF
5. Firms
6. Agriculture
RKHC
4. Capital endowed households
3. Labour endowed households WL
YHHC
SHHC
ES,HC
EI,HC
EA,HC
4.
YF
SF
DIV
5.
6.
VXA
CIS,A
CII,A
CIA,A
RKA
3.
VXI
CIS,I
CII,I
CIA,I
RKI
WLI
7.
8.
VXS
CIS,S
CII,S
CIA,S
RKS
WLS
PRODUCTIVE ACTIVITIES
2. Capital
2.
AGENTS
WLA
1.
FACTORS
1. Labour
Expenses
Receipts
MODEL AUTA: A CLOSED ECONOMY WITHOUT GOVERNMENT SOCIAL ACCOUNTING MATRIX
IT
IVI
IVA
9.
ACC.
ST
VXS
VXI
VXA
YF
YHHC
YHHW
RK
WL
(1 to 9)
TOTAL
Legend i, j A, I , S h HW , HC
Industries and commodities (A: agriculture, I: industry, S: services) Households (HW: labour endowed households, HC: capital endowed households)
CI i , j
Intermediate consumption of commodity i in industry j Dividends Expenditure in commodity i of type h household Total investment
DIV
Ei ,h IT
IVi RK F RK HC RK j
RK SF
Investment in commodity i Capital revenue paid to firms Capital revenue paid to capitalists Return to capital from industry j Total capital revenue Firms' savings
YF
Savings of type h household Total savings Output of industry j Wage bill paid by industry j Total wage bill paid to workers Firms' income
YH h
Income of type h household
SH h ST VX
j
WL j WL
AUTA
7
8
FFC-PEP Workshop, August 2010 10,101 2,886 28,860
8. Services
9. Accumulation
TOTAL (1 to 9) 18,500
11,544
7. Industry
28,860
4,329
7,400
5. Firms
6. Agriculture
11,100
4. Capital endowed households
3. Labour endowed households 28,860
13,000
2,600
5,850
3,900
650
4.
7,400
5,500
1,900
5.
6.
9,000
136
1,544
120
1,440
3.
54,400
11,264
21,709.1
2,526.9
11,340
7,560
7.
8.
30,700
3,349
5,815.5
275.5
5,720
15,540
PRODUCTIVE ACTIVITIES
2. Capital
2.
AGENTS
5,760
1.
FACTORS
1. Labour
Expenses
Receipts
10,986
9,887.4
1,098.6
9.
ACC.
MODEL AUTA: A CLOSED ECONOMY WITHOUT GOVERNMENT NUMERICAL SAM
10,986
30,700
54,400
9,000
7,400
13,000
28,860
18,500
28,860
(1 to 9)
TOTAL
AUTA: Equations and variables
A. E Q U A TI O N S (50) Production 1. VA j v j XS j
3
2. CI j io j XS j
3
1 j
3. VA j A j LD j j KD j j PVA j VA j
4. LD j
5. DI i , j aiji , j
W CI j
3 3 9
Income and savings 6. YH hw W LD j
1
j
7. YH hc R j KD j DIV
1
j
8. SH h h YH h 9. YF 1 R j KD j
2 1
j
10. SF YF DIV
1
Demand 11. Ci ,h
i ,h YH h
6
Pi IT 12. INVi i Pi
3
13. DITi DI i , j
3
j
Prices 14. PVA j 15. R j
Pj XS j Pi DI i , j i
VA j
PVA j VA j W LD j KD j
3 3
Equilibrium 16. XSi DITi Ci ,h INVi 17. LS LD j
3
h
1
j
18. IT SH h SF
1
h
AUTA
9
B. E N DO G E N O U S
(50)
Consumption of commodity i by type h households (volume) Total intermediate consumption of industry j (volume) Intermediate consumption of commodity i in industry j (volume) Total intermediate demand for commodity i (volume) Final demand of commodity i for investment purposes (volume) Total investment Industry j demand for labour (volume) Price of commodity i Value added price for industry j Rate of return to capital from industry j Firms' savings Savings of type h household Value added of industry j (volume) Wage rate Output of industry j (volume) Firms' income Income of type h household
Ci ,h : CI j : DI i , j :
DITi : INVi : IT :
LD j :
Pi : PVA j :
Rj : SF :
SH h : VA j : W : XS j :
YF :
YH h :
C. E XO G E N O U S
V AR I AB L E S
V AR I A B L E S
DIV : KD j :
LS :
6 3 9 3 3 1 3 3 3 3 1 2 3 1 3 1 2
(5)
Dividends Industry j demand for capital (volume) Total labour supply (volume)
1 3 1
D. P A RA M ET E R S Aj : aiji , j :
j :
i ,h : io j :
:
i : h : vj :
Scale coefficient (Cobb-Douglas production function) Input-output coefficient Elasticity (Cobb-Douglas production function) Share of the value of commodity i in total income of household h Technical coefficient (Leontief production function) Share of capital income received by capitalists Share of the value of commodity i in total investment Propensity to save Technical coefficient (Leontief production function)
E. S E TS i, j I AGR, IND, SER Industries and commodities (AGR: agriculture, IND: industry,
h H HW , HC
10
SER: services) Households (HW: labour endowed households, HC: capital endowed households) FFC-PEP Workshop, August 2010
AUTA: Simulation results DEFINITIONS
SYMBOL
BENCHMARK
S I M U L A T I O N 1: LS +10%
S I M U L A T I O N 2: KDSER +10%
P R IC E S • wage rate
W
1
Ragr
1
• industry
Rind
1
• services
Rser
1
• agriculture
PVAagr
1
• industry
PVAind
1
• services
PVAser
1
Pagr
1
• industry
Pind
• services
Pser
0.976
1.000
(2.40)
(0.02)
1.063
1.005
RATE OF RETURN TO CAPITAL • agriculture
(6.29)
(0.47)
1.109
1.018
(10.94)
(1.83)
1.060
0.899
(6.02)
(10.10)
0.993
1.001
1.054
1.011
VALUE ADDED PRICE (0.72)
(0.07)
(5.40)
(1.08)
0.998
0.972
(0.20)
(2.84)
1.000
1.000
PRODUCER PRICE • agriculture (numeraire)
(0.00)
(0.00)
1
1.033
0.999
1
1.005
(3.31)
(0.15)
0.978
(0.55)
(2.24)
9,635.73
9,035.25
P R O D UC TI ON AN D F A CTO R S OUTPUT • agriculture
XSagr
9,000
• industry
XSind
• services
(7.06)
(0.39)
54,400
57,259.80
54,801.01
(5.26)
(0.74)
XSser
30,700
32,613.22
31,247.71
(6.23)
(1.78)
VAagr
7,200
7,708.58
7,228.20
• industry
VAind
• services
VALUE ADDED • agriculture
(7.06)
(0.39)
18,900
19,893.57
19,039.32
(5.26)
(0.74)
VAser
21,260
22,584.92
21,639.30
(6.23)
(1.78)
LDagr
5,760
6,273.00
5,788.21
• industry
LDind
• services
LABOUR • agriculture
• total
(8.91)
(0.49)
7,560
8,593.09
7,700.09
(13.67)
(1.85)
LDser
15,540
16,879.92
15,371.70
LS
28,860
31,746.00
28,860.00
(10.00)
(0.00)
(8.62)
(1.08)
CAPITAL • agriculture
KDagr
1,440
• industry
KDind
• services
1,440.00
1,440.00
(0.00)
(0.00)
11,340
11,340.00
11,340.00
(0.00)
(0.00)
KDser
5,720
5,720.00
6,292.00
(0.00)
(10.00)
CIagr
1,800
1,927.15
1,807.05
• industry
CIind
• services
CIser
TOTAL INTERMEDIATE CONSUMPTION • agriculture
AUTA
(7.06)
(0.39)
35,500
37,366.23
35,761.69
(5.26)
(0.74)
9,440
10,028.30
9,608.42
(6.23)
(1.78)
11
DEFINITIONS
SYMBOL
BENCHMARK
S I M U L A T I O N 1: LS +10%
S I M U L A T I O N 2: KDSER +10%
INTERMEDIATE CONSUMPT ION • agriculture
• industry
• services
DIagr,agr
120
DIind,agr
128.48
120.47
(7.06)
(0.39)
1,544
1,653.06
1,550.05
(7.06)
(0.39)
DIser,agr
136
145.61
136.53
(7.06)
(0.39)
DIagr,ind
2,526.9
2,659.74
2,545.53
(5.26)
(0.74)
DIind,ind
21,709.1
22,850.35
21,869.13
(5.26)
(0.74)
DIser,ind
11,264
11,856.15
11,347.03
(5.26)
(0.74)
DIagr,ser
275.5
292.67
280.42
(6.23)
(1.78)
DIind,ser
5,815.5
6,177.92
5,919.25
(6.23)
(1.78)
DIser,ser
3,349
3,557.71
3,408.75
(6.23)
(1.78)
30,984.28
28,852.98
IN C O M E AN D S AV IN G S INCOME • labour endowed households • capital endowed households • firms
YHhw
28,860
YHhc
13,000
14,005.06 (7.73)
(0.70)
YF
7,400
8,070.04
7,460.28
(9.06)
(0.82)
SHhw
2,886
3,098.43
2,885.30
SHhc
2,600
2,801.01 (7.73)
(0.70)
SF
5,500
6,170.04
5,560.28
(12.18)
(1.10)
4,647.64
4,327.95
(7.36)
(0.02)
13,090.42
SAVINGS • labour endowed households • capital endowed households • firms
(7.36)
(0.02)
2,616.09
D E M AN D LABOUR ENDOWED HOUSEHOLDS – CONSUMPTION • agriculture
Cagr,hw
4,329
• industry
Cind,hw
11,544
11,996.83 (3.92)
(0.12)
• services
Cser,hw
10,101
10,785.67
10,329.81
(6.78)
(2.27)
700.25
654.52
(7.36)
(0.02)
11,557.97
CAPITAL ENDOWED HOUSE HOLDS – CONSUMPTION • agriculture
Cagr,hc
650
• industry
Cind,hc
• services
(7.73)
(0.70)
3,900
4,066.97
3,932.84
(4.28)
(0.84)
Cser,hc
5,850
6,268.09
6,025.59
(7.15)
(3.00)
DITagr
2,922.4
3,080.88
2,946.41
• industrial products
DITind
• services
INTERMEDIATE DEMAND • agricultural products
(5.42)
(0.82)
29,068.6
30,681.33
29,338.43
(5.55)
(0.93)
DITser
14,749
15,559.46
14,892.31
(5.50)
(0.97)
INVagr
1,098
1,206.95
1,106.37
INVind IT
INVESTMENT DEMAND • agricultural products • industrial products • total
12
(9.86)
(0.71)
9,887.4
10,514.68
9,971.78
(6.34)
(0.85)
10,986
12,069.48
11,063.67
(9.86)
(0.71)
FFC-PEP Workshop, August 2010
Model AUTETA: A Closed Economy with Government Social accounting matrix Equations and variables Simulation results
14
FFC-PEP Workshop, August 2010 YHHC
YF
YG
YHHW
TOTAL (1 to 15)
SF
SG
SHHC
SHHW
15. Accumulation
ES,HC G
ES,HW
13. Services
EI,HC
EA,HC
TG
6.
14. Non-tradables
EI,HW
12. Industry
RK
DIV
5.
DTHHW DTHHc DTF
EA,HW
WL
RKF
RKHC
11. Agriculture
10. Non-tradables
9. Services
8. Industry
7. Agriculture
6. Government
5. Firms
3. Labour endowed households 4. Capital endowed households WL
4.
7.
VXA
CIS,A
CII,A
CIA,A
RKA
3.
2. Capital
2.
AGENTS
WLA
1.
FACTORS
1. Labour
Expenses
Receipts
VXI
CIS,I
CII,I
CIA,I
RKI
WLI
8.
VXS
CIS,S
CII,S
CIA,S
RKS
WLS
9.
INDUSTRIES
VXN
CIS,N
CII,N
CIA,N
WLN
10.
VXTA
VXA
TIA
11.
VXTI
VXI
TII
12.
VXTS
VXS
TIS
13.
COMMODITIES
MODEL AUTETA: A CLOSED ECONOMY WITH GOVERNMENT SOCIAL ACCOUNTING MATRIX
VXTN
VXN
14.
IT
IVI
IVA
15.
ACC.
ST
VXTN
VXTS
VXTI
VXTA
VXN
VXS
VXI
VXA
YG
YF
YHHC
YHHW
RK
WL
(1 to 15)
TOTAL
Legend i, j A, I , S , N h HW , HC
CI i , j
DIV
DTF
DTH h Ei ,h G IT
IVi RK F RK HC RK j RK
SF
SH h SG
ST
TG
TI i VX
j
Industries and commodities (A: agriculture, I: industry, S: services, N: non tradable services) Households (HW: labour endowed households, HC: capital endowed households) Intermediate consumption of commodity i in industry j Dividends Direct tax on firm's income Direct tax on household's h income Household h's expenditure in commodity i Public expenditures Total investment Investment in commodity i Capital revenue paid to firms Capital revenue paid to capitalists Return to capital from industry j Total capital revenue Firms' savings Household h's savings Government's savings Total savings Public transfers to workers Indirect tax on commodity i Output of industry j (at producer price)
YG
Production of commodity i (at consumer price) Wage bill paid by industry j Total wage bill paid to workers Firms' income Government's income
YH h
Household h's income
VXTi WL j
WL YF
AUTETA
15
16
FFC-PEP Workshop, August 2010
7.
3229.3
11,340
7,560
8. 6,960
10.
157.15 118.35
5,720
8,580
9.
INDUSTRIES
136
54,400
4,671
22,000
2,063.4
9,000
180
11.
54,400
2,700
12.
22,000
660
13.
COMMODITIES
8,700 9,180 57,100 22,660
285.6
1,544 27,599.7 5,479.45 1,336.05
120
6,250 9,000
29,000
TOTAL (1 to 15)
13,000 7,400
2,470 4,020 -2,590
2,842
5,557
15. Accumulation
9,947
13. Services
3,705
140
6.
8,700
11368
12. Industry
618
650 1,480
1,900
5.
14. Non-tradables
4263
28,860 18,500
7,400
11. Agriculture
10. Non-tradables
9. Services
8. Industry
7. Agriculture
6. Government
5. Firms
3. Labour endowed 28,860 households 4. Capital endowed 11,100 households 580
4. 1,440
3.
2. Capital
2.
AGENTS 5,760
1.
FACTORS
1. Labour
Expenses
Receipts
MODEL AUTETA: A CLOSED ECONOMY WITH GOVERNMENT NUMERICAL EXAMPLE
8,700
8,700
14.
6,742
6,067.8
674.2
15.
ACC.
6,742
8,700
22,660
57,100
9,180
8,700
22,000
54,400
9,000
6,250
7,400
13,000
29,000
18,500
28,860
(1 to 15)
TOTAL
AUTETA: Equations and variables A. E Q U A TI O N S (72) Production 1. VA j v j XS j
4
2. CI j io j XS j
4
3. VAtr Atr LDtr KDtr1 tr
tr
4. VAntr LDntr 5. LDtr
1
tr PVAtr VAtr W
6. LDntr
3
Pntr XS ntr PDtr DI tr ,ntr tr
7. DI tr , j aijtr , j CI j
W
3 1 12
Income and savings 8. YH hw W LD j TG
1
j
9. YH hc Rtr KDtr DIV
1
tr
10. YDH h YH h DTH h
2
11. SH h hYDH h
2
12. YF 1 Rtr KDtr
1
tr
13. SF YF DIV DTF
1
14. YG TI tr DTH h DTF
1
tr
h
15. SG YG G TG
1
16. TI tr txtr Ptr XStr
3
17. DTH h tyhh YH h
2
18. DTF tyf YF
1
Demand 19. Ctr ,h
tr ,h YDH h
PDtr IT 20. INVtr tr PDtr
21. DITtr DI tr , j
6 3 3
j
AUTETA
17
Prices 22. PVA j 23. Rtr
Pj XS j PDtr DI tr , j
4
tr
VA j
PVAtr VAtr W LDtr KDtr
3
24. PDtr 1 txtr Ptr
3
Equilibrium 25. XStr DITtr Ctr ,h INVtr
3
h
26. XS ntr Pntr G
1
27. LS LD j
1
j
28. IT SH h SF SG
1
h
B. E N DO G E N O U S Ctr ,h : CI j : DI tr , j :
(72)
Consumption of commodity tr by type h households (volume) Total intermediate consumption of industry j (volume) Intermediate consumption of commodity tr in industry j (volume)
6 4 12
Intermediate demand for commodity tr (volume) Receipts from direct taxation on firms' income
3 1
Receipts from direct taxation on household h's income Investment demand for commodity tr (volume) Total investment (value) Industry j demand for labour (volume)
2 3 1 4
Producer price of commodity i Consumer price of commodity tr Value added price for industry j
4 3 4
Rate of return to capital from industry tr Firms' savings Government's savings
3 1 1
Household h's savings Receipts from indirect tax on tr Value added for industry j (volume) Wage rate Output of industry j (volume)
2 3 4 1 4
YG :
Household h's disposable income Firms' income Government's income
2 1 1
YH h :
Household h's income
2
DITtr : DTF :
DTH h : INVtr : IT : LD j :
Pi : PDtr : PVA j :
Rtr : SF : SG :
SH h : TI tr : VA j :
W : XS j :
YDH h : YF :
18
V AR I AB L E S
FFC-PEP Workshop, August 2010
C. E XO G E N O U S
(7) Dividends Public expenditures
1 1
Industry j demand for capital (volume) Total labour supply (volume) Public transfers to households
3 1 1
V AR I A B L E S
DIV : G :
KDtr : LS :
TG :
D. P A RA M ET E R S Production functions Atr : aijtr , j :
tr : io j :
vj :
Scale coefficient (Cobb-Douglas production function) Input-output coefficient Elasticity (Cobb-Douglas production function) Technical coefficient (Leontief production function) Technical coefficient (Leontief production function)
Tax rates tyf :
Tax rate on commodity tr Direct tax rate on firms' income
tyhh :
Direct tax rate on household h's income
txtr :
Other parameters tr ,h : :
Share of the value of commodity tr in disposable income of household h Share of the value of capital income received by capitalists
h : tr :
Propensity to save Share of the value of commodity tr in total investment
E. S E TS i, j I AGR, IND, SER, NTR tr TR AGR, IND, SER h H HW , HC
AUTETA
All industries and commodities (AGR: agriculture, IND: industry, SER: services, NTR: non-tradable services) Tradable commodities Households (HW: labour endowed households, HC: capital endowed households)
19
AUTETA: Simulation results DEFINITIONS
SYMBOL
SIM1: LS +10%
BENCHMARK
SIM2: G-10%
SIM3: txi -25%
P R IC E S • wage rate
W
1
Ragr
1
• industry
Rind
1
• services
Rser
1
PVAagr
1
• industry
PVAind
• services • non-tradable services
0.969
0.991
1.007
(3.06)
(0.87)
1.069
1.015
(6.95)
(1.50)
(0.12)
1.140
1.050
0.997
(0.66)
RATE OF RETURN TO CAPITAL • agriculture
1.001 (0.34)
(13.96)
(5.00)
1.065
1.001
(6.55)
(0.12)
(2.01)
0.989
0.996
1.006
(-1.14)
(-0.40)
(0.56)
1
1.068
1.026
1.001
(6.82)
(2.60)
(0.06)
PVAser
1
1.007
0.995
1.012
(0.67)
(-0.48)
(1.20)
PVAntr
1
0.969
0.991
1.007
(-3.06)
(-0.87)
(0.66)
Pagr
1
1.000
1.000
1.000
(0.00)
(0.00)
(0.00)
• industry
Pind
1
1.051
1.019
0.987
(5.14)
(1.87)
• services
Pser
1
1.019
1.002
(1.90)
(0.17)
(0.10)
Pntr
1
0.984
0.996
1.001
1.020
VALUE ADDED PRICE • agriculture
PRODUCER PRICE • agriculture (numeraire)
• non-tradable services
(1.33)
1.001
(1.60)
(0.41)
1.020
1.020
(0.00)
(0.00)
1.104
1.069
(5.14)
(1.87)
1.050
1.032
(1.90)
(0.17)
(0.63)
9,736.14
9,171.93
8,960.91
(8.18)
(1.91)
(-0.43)
54,182.35
(0.12)
CONSUMER PRICE • agriculture • industry • services
PDagr
1.02
PDind
1.05
PDser
1.03
1.015
(0.49)
1.023
(2.49)
1.023
P R O D UC TI ON AN D F A CTO R S OUTPUT • agriculture
XSagr
9,000
• industry
XSind
54,400 58,036.85 55,664.14 (2.32)
(-0.40)
• services
XSser
22,000 23,283.73 22,131.55
22,176.56
• non-tradable services
XSntr
8,700
VAagr
7,200
(6.69) (5.84)
(0.60)
(0.80)
8,841.30
7,861.97
8,689.47
(1.62)
(-9.63)
(-0.12)
7,788.91
7,337.55
7,168.73
(8.18)
(1.91)
(-0.43)
18,824.38
VALUE ADDED • agriculture • industry
VAind
18,900 20,163.54 19,339.20 (2.32)
(-0.40)
• services
VAser
14,300 15,134.43 14,385.51
14,414.76
• non-tradable services
VAntr
6,960
KDagr
1,440
(6.69) (5.84)
(0.60)
(0.80)
7,073.04
6,289.57
6,951.58
(1.62)
(-9.63)
(-0.12)
1,440.00
1,440.00
1,440.00
(0.00)
(0.00)
(0.00)
11,340 11,340.00 11,340.00
11,340.00
CAPITAL • agriculture • industry
KDind
• services
KDser
20
5,720
(0.00)
(0.00)
(0.00)
5,720.00
5,720.00
5,720.00
(0.00)
(0.00)
(0.00)
FFC-PEP Workshop, August 2010
DEFINITIONS
SYMBOL
BENCHMARK
SIM1: LS +10%
SIM2: G-10%
LABOUR • agriculture
LDagr
5,760
• industry
LDind
• services • non-tradable services • total
SIM3: txi -25%
6,354.81
5,897.87
(10.33)
(2.39)
(-0.54)
7,560
8,887.59
8,006.88
7,484.61
(17.56)
(5.91)
(-1.00)
LDser
8,580
9,430.55
8,665.68
8,695.07
(9.91)
(1.00)
(1.34)
LDntr
6,960
7,073.04
6,289.57
6,951.58
(1.62)
(-9.63)
(-0.12)
28,860 31,746.00 28,860.00
28,860.00
LS
5,728.74
(10.00)
(0.00)
(0.00)
1,861.42
1,753.55
1,713.20
(8.18)
(1.91)
(-0.43)
33,995.57 36,268.30 34,785.55
33,859.55
TOTAL INTERMEDIATE CONSUMPTION • agriculture
CIagr
1,720.68
• industry
CIind
(6.69)
(2.32)
(-0.40)
• services
CIser
7,377.72
7,808.22
7,421.84
7,436.93
(5.84)
(0.60)
(0.80)
• non-tradable services
CIntr
1,666.19
1,693.25
1,505.69
1,664.17
(1.62)
(-9.63)
(-0.12)
127.27
119.90
117.14
(8.18)
(1.91)
(-0.43)
1,499.09
1,464.60
INTERMEDIATE CONSUMPT ION • agriculture
• industry
DIagr,agr
117.65
DIind,agr
1,470.99
1,591.31 (8.18)
(1.91)
(-0.43)
DIser,agr
132.04
142.84
134.56
131.47
(8.18)
(1.91)
(-0.43)
DIagr,ind
3,165.98
3,377.64
3,239.55
3,153.31
(6.69)
(2.32)
(-0.40)
26,294.64 28,052.53 26,905.67
26,189.43
DIind,ind
• services
• non-tradable services
(6.69)
(2.32)
(-0.40)
DIser,ind
4,534.95
4,838.13
4,640.33
4,516.81
(6.69)
(2.32)
(-0.40)
DIagr,ser
154.069
163.06
154.99
155.31
(5.84)
(0.60)
(0.80)
DIind,ser
5,220.35
5,524.97
5,251.57
5,262.25
(5.84)
(0.60)
(0.80)
DIser,ser
2,003.3
2,120.20
2,015.28
2,019.38
(5.84)
(0.60)
(0.80)
DIagr,ntr
116.03
117.91
104.85
115.89
(1.62)
(-9.63)
(-0.12)
DIind,ntr
1,272.87
1,293.55
1,150.26
1,271.33
(1.62)
(-9.63)
(-0.12)
DIser,ntr
277.28
281.79
250.57
276.95
(1.62)
(-9.63)
(-0.12)
IN C O M E AN D S AV IN G S INCOME • labour endowed households
YHhw
29,000
30,913.90 28,748.02 29,191.74
• capital endowed households
YHhc
13,000
14,234.64 13,356.23 13,047.06 (9.50)
(2.74)
(0.36)
• firms
YF
7,400
8,223.10
7,637.49
7,431.37
(11.12)
(3.21)
(0.42)
• government
YG
6,250
6,909.66
6,433.04
5,346.46
(10.55)
(2.93)
(14.46)
SHhw
2,842
3,029.56
2,817.31
2,860.79
SHhc
2,470
2,704.58
2,537.69
2,478.94
(9.50)
(2.74)
(0.36)
• firms
SF
4,020
4,678.48
4,209.99
4,045.10
(16.38)
(4.73)
(0.62)
• government
SG
2,590
(6.60)
(0.87)
(0.66)
SAVINGS • labour endowed households • capital endowed households
(6.60)
(0.66)
1,930.34 1,536.96 3,493.54 (25.47)
AUTETA
(0.87)
(40.66)
(34.89)
21
DEFINITIONS
SYMBOL
BENCHMARK
SIM1: LS +10%
SIM2: G-10%
DISPOSABLE INCOME
SIM3: txi -25%
• labour endowed households
YDHhw
28,420
30,295.62 28,173.06 28,607.91
• capital endowed households
YDHhc
12,350
13,522.91 12,688.42 12,394.71
(0.87)
(0.66)
(9.50)
(2.74)
(0.36)
194.72
183.44
(8.18)
(1.91)
(25.33)
3,028.55
2,814.26
1,990.13
(12.17)
(4.23)
711.75
665.07
(7.84)
(0.77)
(24.32)
618.28
574.96
583.84
667.81
652.35
(6.60)
RECEIPTS FROM INDIRECT TAXATION • agricultural products • industrial products • services
TIagr
180
134.41
TIind
2,700
TIser
660
DTHhs
580
DTHhc
650
711.73 (9.50)
(2.74)
(0.36)
1,480
1,644.62
1,527.50
1,486.27
(11.12)
(3.21)
(0.42)
4,455.24
4,143.10
4,227.77
(26.29)
499.46
RECEIPTS FROM DIRECT TAXATION • labour endowed households • capital endowed households • firms
DTF
(6.60)
(0.87)
(0.66)
D E M AN D LABOUR ENDOWED HOUSEHOLDS – CONSUMPTION • agriculture
Cagr,hw
4,179.41
• industry
Cind,hw
10,830.46
• services
Cser,hw
9,657.28
(6.60)
(0.87)
(1.16)
10,980.86 10,539.83 11,180.90 (1.39)
10,103.13
(2.68)
9,557.18
(3.24)
9,782.89
(4.62)
(1.04)
663.43
622.49
(9.50)
(2.74)
(0.86)
3,560.15
3,633.19
(1.30)
CAPITAL ENDOWED HOUSEHOLDS – CONSUMPTION • agriculture
Cagr,hc
605.88
• industry
Cind,hc
3,529.81
3,676.10 (4.15)
(0.86)
(2.93)
• services
Cser,hc
5,395.15
5,797.65
5,533.62
5,449.07
(6.97)
(2.57)
(1.00)
8,700
8,700.00
7,830.00
8,700.00
(0.00)
(-10.00)
(0.00)
3,785.88
3,619.29
3,541.64
(6.53)
(1.85)
(-0.34)
Public expenditures
G
611.07
INTERMEDIATE DEMAND • agricultural products
DITagr
3,553.73
• industrial products
DITind
34,258.85
• services
DITser
6,947.57
INVagr
660.98
INVind
5,780.88
36,462.36 34,806.59 34,187.62 (6.43)
(1.60)
(-0.21)
7,382.95
7,040.75
6,944.60
(6.27)
(1.34)
(-0.04)
831.60
787.06
(25.81)
(19.08)
(12.19)
6,917.53
6,757.57
5,180.64
(19.66)
(16.90)
(10.38)
8,482.28
8,028.02
5,891.29
(25.81)
(19.08)
INVESTMENT DEMAND • agricultural products • industrial products • total
22
IT
6,742
580.42
(12.62)
FFC-PEP Workshop, August 2010
Model EXTER: An Open Economy with Government Social accounting matrix Equations and variables Simulation results
24
FFC-PEP Workshop, August 2010 RK
ES,HW
14. Services
SHHW YHHW
TOTAL (1 to 19) YHHC
YF
YG Rrow
SG CAB
ETS
18. Services
19. Accumulation
ETI
G
17. Industry SF
DIV row
DTF
ETA
SHHC
ES,HC
EI,HC
EA,HC
DTHHC
DIV
TG
7.
16. Agriculture
15. Non-tradables
EI,HW
13. Industry
DTHHW
EA,HW
WL
RKrow
RKF
RKHC
12. Agriculture
11. Non-tradables
10. Services
9. Industry
8. Agriculture
7. Rest of the World
6. Government
5. Firms
3. Labour endowed households 4. Capital endowed households WL
6.
8.
VXA
CIS,A
CII,A
CIA,A
RKA
5.
2. Capital
4.
WLA
3.
AGENTS
1. Labour
Receipts FACTORS Expenses 1. 2.
VXI
CIS,I
CII,I
CIA,I
RKI
WLI
9.
VXS
CIS,S
CII,S
CIA,S
RKS
WLS
10.
INDUSTRIES
VXN
CIS,N
CII,N
CIA,N
WLN
11.
VXDA
VDA
IMA
TIA
12.
VXDI
VDI
IMI
TII
13.
VXDS
VDS
IMS
TIS
14.
DOMESTIC MARKET
VXDN
VDN
15.
ETA
EXA
TEA
16.
ETI
EXI
17.
ETS
EXS
18.
EXPORT MARKET
MODEL EXTER: AN OPEN ECONOMY WITH GOVERNMENT SOCIAL ACCOUNTING MATRIX
IT
IVI
IVA
19.
ACC.
ST
ETS
ETI
ETA
VXDN
VXDS
VXDI
VXDA
VXN
VXS
VXI
VXA
Rrow
YG
YF
YHHC
YHHW
RK
WL
(1 to 19)
TOTAL
Legend i, j A, I , S , N Industries and commodities (A: agriculture, I: industry, S: services, N: nonh HW , HC
CAB CI i , j
DIV
DIVrow DTF
DTH h EX i ETi Ei ,h G
IM i IT
IVi Rrow RK F RK HC RK j
RK row RK SF
SG
SH h ST
TE i TG
TI i VD j VX
j
VXDi WL j
WL YF
YG
YH h
EXTER
tradable services) Households (HW: labour endowed households, HC: capital endowed households) Current account balance Intermediate consumption of commodity i in industry j Dividends paid to capitalists Dividends paid to the rest of the World Direct tax on firm's income Direct tax on household's h income Exports of commodity i (excluding taxes) Exports of commodity i (including taxes) Household h's expenditure in commodity i Public expenditures Imports of commodity i Total investment Investment in commodity i Receipts of the rest of the World Capital revenue paid to firms Capital revenue paid to capitalists Return to capital from industry j Capital revenue paid to rest of the World Total capital revenue Firms' savings Government's savings Household h's savings Total savings Tax on exports of commodity i Public transfers to workers Indirect tax and tariff duties on commodity i Output of industry j sold on domestic market (at producer price) Output of industry j (at producer price) Composite commodity i (at consumer price) Wage bill paid by industry j Total wage bill paid to workers Firms' income Government's income Household h's income
25
26
FFC-PEP Workshop, August 2010 11,368 9,947
13. Industry
14. Services
6.
140
7.
2,200 7,424
2,842
29,000 13,000 6,475 10,549.46 19,674
18. Services
19. Accumulation
TOTAL (1 to 19)
1,709.46
8,160
17. Industry
8,700 1,890
2,470 2,910
5,557
3,705
618
370
650 1,295
1,900
5.
16. Agriculture
15. Non-tradables
4,263
28,860 18,500
925
6,475
12. Agriculture
11. Non-tradables
10. Services
9. Industry
8. Agriculture
6. Government 7. Rest of the World
5. Firms
3. Labour endowed 28,860 households 4. Capital endowed 11,100 households 580
4.
8.
9,000
136
1,504
160
1,440
3.
2. Capital
2.
AGENTS 5,760
1.
FACTORS
1. Labour
Receipts Expenses
177.15
5,720
8,580
10.
118.35
6,960
11.
54,400
5,186
22,000
2,063.4
7,200
379
190.24
12.
675
14.
46,240 19,800
15,300 2,700
7,069.22
13.
DOMESTIC MARKET
8,700 7,769.24 68,609.22 23,175
285.6
29,616.81 5,459.45 1,336.05
697.19
11,340
7,560
9.
INDUSTRIES
1,800
90
16.
8,160
17.
2,200
2,200
18.
EXPORT MARKET
8,700 1,890 8,160
8,700
15.
MODEL EXTER: AN OPEN ECONOMY WITH GOVERNMENT NUMERICAL EXAMPLE
17,355.46
15,619.91
1,735.55
19.
ACC.
17,355.46
2,200
8,160
1,890
8,700
23,175
68,609.22
7,769.24
8,700
22,000
54,400
9,000
19,674
10,549.46
6,475
13,000
29,000
18,500
28,860
(1 to 19)
TOTAL
EXTER: Equations and variables A. E Q U A TI O N S (104) Production 1. VA j v j XS j
4
2. CI j io j XS j
4
3. VAtr Atr LDtr KDtr1 tr
3
tr
4. VAntr LDntr PVAtr VAtr 5. LDtr tr
1 3
W
6. LDntr
Pntr XS ntr PCtr DI tr ,ntr
1
tr
W
7. DI tr , j aijtr , j CI j
12
Income and savings 8. YH hw W LD j TG
1
j
9. YH hc Rtr KDtr DIV
1
tr
10. YDH h YH h DTH h
2
11. SH h hYDH h
2
12. YF 1 ROW Rtr KDtr
1
tr
13. SF YF DIV DIV ROW DTF
1
14. YG TI tr DTH h DTF TIM tr TIEtr tr
h
tr
1
tr
15. SG YG G TG 16. TI tr txtr PLtr Dtr txtr 1 tmtr e PWM tr M tr
1 3
17. TIM tr tmtr e PWM tr M tr
3
18. TIEtr tetr PEtr EX tr
3
19. DTH h tyhh YH h
2
20. DTF tyf YF
1
Demand 21. C tr ,h
tr ,h YDH h
PCtr IT 22. INVtr tr PCtr
23. DITtr DI tr , j
6 3 3
j
EXTER
27
Prices 24. PVA j 25. Rtr
Pj XS j PCtr DI tr , j
4
tr
VA j
PVAtr VAtr W LDtr KDtr
3
26. PDtr 1 txtr PLtr
3
27. PM tr 1 txtr 1 tmtr e PWM tr
3
e PWE tr
28. PEtr
3
1 tetr
PDtr Dtr PM tr M tr Qtr PL D PEtr EX tr 30. Ptr tr tr XStr
29. PCtr
3 3
31. PINDEX j PVA j
1
j
International Trade
32. XStr BtrE trE EX tr tr 1 trE Dtr tr E
PE 33. EX tr tr PLtr
34. Qtr
AtrM
M tr
PDtr 35. M tr PM tr
E
1 trE E tr M M tr tr
1
trE
3
trE
3
Dtr
1
trM M 1 tr
M tr
M Dtr tr
1
trM
3
trM
3
Dtr
36. CAB e PWM tr M tr ROW Rtr KDtr DIV ROW e PWE tr EX tr tr
tr
1
tr
Equilibrium 37. Qtr DITtr Ctr ,h INVtr
3
h
38. XS ntr Pntr G
1
39. LS LD j
1
j
40. IT SH h SF SG CAB
1
h
28
FFC-PEP Workshop, August 2010
B. E N DO G E N O U S Ctr ,h : CI j :
Dtr : DI tr , j :
DITtr : DTF :
DTH h : e :
EX tr : INVtr : IT : LD j :
M tr : Pi : PCtr : PDtr : PEtr : PINDEX :
PLtr : PM tr : PVA j :
Qtr : Rtr : SF : SG :
SH h : TI tr : TIEtr : TIM tr : VA j : W : XS j :
YDH h : YF : YG :
YH h :
C. E XO G E N O U S CAB : DIV :
DIV ROW : G :
EXTER
V AR I AB L E S
(104)
Consumption of commodity tr by type h households (volume) Total intermediate consumption of industry j (volume) Demand for domestic commodity tr (volume) Intermediate consumption of commodity tr in industry j (volume) Intermediate demand for commodity tr (volume) Receipts from direct taxation on firms' income Receipts from direct taxation on household h's income Exchange rate Exports of commodity tr (volume) Investment demand for commodity tr (volume) Total investment Industry j demand for labour (volume) Imports of commodity tr (volume) Producer price of commodity i Consumer price of composite commodity tr Domestic price of commodity tr including taxes Domestic price of exported commodity tr GDP deflator Domestic price of commodity tr (excluding taxes) Domestic price of imported commodity tr Value added price for industry j Demand for composite commodity tr (volume) Rate of return to capital in industry tr Firms' savings Government's savings Household h's savings Receipts from indirect tax on tr Receipts from tax on export tr Receipts from import duties tr Value added for industry j (volume) Wage rate Output of industry j (volume) Household h's disposable income Firms' income Government's income Household h's income (15) Current account balance Dividends paid to capitalists households Dividends paid to the rest of the World Public expenditures
6 4 3 12 3 1 2 1 3 3 1 4 3 4 3 3 3 1 3 3 4 3 3 1 1 2 3 3 3 4 1 4 2 1 1 2
V AR I A B L E S
1 1 1 1 29
KDtr : LS :
PWE tr : PWM tr : TG :
Industry j demand for capital (volume) Total labour supply (volume) World price of export tr World price of import tr Public transfers to workers
3 1 3 3 1
D. P A RA M ET E R S Production functions Scale coefficient (Cobb-Douglas production function) Atr : Input-output coefficient aijtr , j : Elasticity (Cobb-Douglas production function) tr : Technical coefficient (Leontief production function) io j : Technical coefficient (Leontief production function) vj : CES and CET functions Scale coefficient (CES function) AtrM : E Scale coefficient (CET function) Btr : M Share parameter (CES function) tr : E Share parameter (CET function) tr : E Transformation parameter (CET function) tr : M Substitution parameter (CES function) tr : M Substitution elasticity (CES function) tr : E Transformation elasticity (CET function) tr : Tax rates tetr : tmtr : txtr : tyhh : tyf :
Tax on exports tr Import duties on commodity tr Tax rate on commodity tr Direct tax rate on household h's income Direct tax rate on firms' income
Other parameters Share of industry j in total value added j : Share of the value of commodity tr in disposable of household h tr ,h : Share of the value of capital income received by capitalists : ROW : Share of capital income received by foreigners h : Propensity to save tr : Share of the value of commodity tr in total investment E. sets
i, j I AGR, IND, SER, NTR tr TR AGR, IND, SER h H HW , HC
30
All industries and commodities (AGR: agriculture, IND: industry, SER: services, NTR: non-tradable services) Tradable commodities Households (HW: labour endowed households, HC: capital endowed households) FFC-PEP Workshop, August 2010
EXTER: Simulation results DEFINITIONS
SYMBOL
BENCHMARK
SIM1: tmind -50%
SIM2: tmind -50%; SG FIXED
P R I CE S • wage rate
W
1
PINDEX
1
e
1
• agriculture
Ragr
1
• industry
Rind
1
• services
Rser
1
• agriculture
PVAagr
1
• industry
PVAind
1
• services
PVAser
1
PVAntr
1
• agriculture
Pagr
1
• industry
Pind
1
• services
Pser
1
• non-tradable services
Pntr
1
• GDP Deflator • Exchange rate (numeraire)
0.994
(0.59)
0.990
0.946
(5.39)
0.969
(1.02)
(3.10)
1.000
1.000
(0.00)
(0.00)
0.985
1.002
0.971
1.017
1.008
0.983
RATE OF RETURN TO CAPITAL (1.48) (2.93) (0.76)
(0.25) (1.75) (1.67)
VALUE ADDED PRICE
• non-tradable services
0.992
(0.77)
0.980
(2.00)
0.999 (-0.05)
0.994 (-0.59)
0.957
(4.29)
0.988
(1.17)
0.961
(3.92)
0.961
(-5.39)
PRODUCER PRICE 0.982
0.953
(1.81)
(4.74)
(4.58)
(4.62)
(1.91)
(4.61)
0.954 0.981 0.984
(1.60)
0.954 0.953 0.944
(5.58)
PRICE OF COMPOSITE COMMODITY • agriculture
PCagr
1.025
• industry
PCind
1.115
• services
PCser
1.03
• agriculture
PDagr
1.02
• industry
PDind
1.05
• services
PDser
1.03
1.003
0.967
(2.15)
(5.67)
(6.76)
(6.79)
(1.87)
(4.62)
1.039 1.011
1.039 0.982
CONSUMER PRICE 0.997
(2.27)
0.993
(5.40)
1.008
(2.12)
0.959
(5.98)
0.993
(5.44)
0.976
(5.25)
PRODUCER PRICE OF COMMODITY SOLD DO MESTICALLY • agriculture
PLagr
1
• industry
PLind
1
• services
PLser
1
PMagr
1.122
• industry
PMind
1.312
• services
PMser
1.03
0.977
0.940
(2.27)
(5.98)
(5.40)
(5.44)
(2.12)
(5.25)
1.122
1.122
0.946 0.979
0.946 0.947
PRICE OF IMPORTS • agriculture
EXTER
(0.00)
(0.00)
1.181
1.181
(10.00)
(10.00)
(0.00)
(0.00)
1.030
1.030
31
DEFINITIONS
SYMBOL
BENCHMARK
SIM1: tmind -50%
SIM2: tmind -50%; SG FIXED
PRODUCER PRICE OF EXPORTED COMMODITY • agriculture
PEagr
1
• industry
PEind
• services
PEser
1.000
1.000
(0.00)
(0.00)
1
1.000
1.000
(0.00)
(0.00)
1
1.000
1.000
(0.00)
(0.00)
PRODUCTION AND FACTORS
OUTPUT • agriculture
XSagr
9,000
8,935.33
9,426.63
• industry
XSind
54,400
53,883.75
56,006.47
• services
XSser
22,000
22,178.64
22,514.77
(0.81)
(2.34)
• non-tradable services
XSntr
8,700
8,841.68
7,136.18
(1.63)
(-17.98)
• agriculture
VAagr
7,200
7,148.27
7,541.30
• industry
VAind
18,900
18,720.64
19,458.13
• services
VAser
14,300
14,416.12
14,634.60
(0.81)
(2.34)
• non-tradable services
VAntr
6,960
7,073.34
5,708.94
(1.63)
(-17.98)
• agriculture
LDagr
5,760
5,708.31
6,103.30
• industry
LDind
7,560
7,381.92
8,130.55
• services
LDser
8,580
8,696.43
8,917.20
(1.36)
(3.93)
• non-tradable services
LDntr
6,960
7,073.34
5,708.94
(1.63)
(-17.98)
LS
28,860
28,860.00
28,860.00
(0.00)
(0.00)
KDagr
1,440
1,440.00
1,440.00
• industry
KDind
• services
(0.72) (0.95)
(4.74) (2.95)
VALUE ADDED (0.72) (0.95)
(4.74) (2.95)
LABOUR
• total
(0.90) (2.36)
(5.96) (7.55)
CAPITAL • agriculture
(0.00)
(0.00)
11,340
11,340.00
11,340.00
(0.00)
(0.00)
KDser
5,720
5,720.00
5,720.00
(0.00)
(0.00)
DIagr,agr
156.08
154.96
163.48
DIind,agr
INTERMEDIATE CONSUMPT ION • agriculture
• industry
• services
32
(-0.72)
(4.74)
1,349.03
1,339.34
1,412.98
(-0.72)
(4.74)
DIser,agr
132.04
131.09
138.30
(-0.72)
(4.74)
DIagr,ind
680.12
673.66
700.20
(-0.95)
(2.95)
DIind,ind
26,565.21
26,313.11
27,349.70
(-0.95)
(2.95)
DIser,ind
5,034.95
4,987.17
5,183.64
(-0.95)
(2.95)
DIagr,ser
172.81
174.22
176.86
(0.81)
(2.34)
DIind,ser
4,896.93
4,936.69
5,011.51
(0.81)
(2.34)
DIser,ser
2,003.30
2,019.57
2,050.18
(0.81)
(2.34)
FFC-PEP Workshop, August 2010
DEFINITIONS • non-tradable services
SYMBOL
BENCHMARK
DIagr,ntr
115.45
DIind,ntr
1,198.39
DIser,ntr
277.28
SIM1: tmind -50%
SIM2: tmind -50%; SG FIXED
117.33
94.70
(1.63)
(-17.98)
1,217.90
982.98
(1.63)
(-17.98)
281.80
227.44
(1.63)
(-17.98)
1,625.39
1,714.76
TOTAL INTERMEDIATE CONSUMPTION • agriculture
CIagr
1,637.16
• industry
CIind
• services • non-tradable services
(-0.72)
(4.74)
32,280.28
31,973.95
33,233.54
(-0.95)
(2.95)
CIser
7,073.04
7,130.48
7,238.54
(0.81)
(2.34)
CIntr
1,591.12
1,617.03
1,305.12
(1.63)
(-17.98)
I N CO M E A N D S A V I N G S
INCOME • labour endowed households
YHhw
29,000
28,829.25
27,444.20
• capital endowed households
YHhc
13,000
12,813.59
13,063.76
• firms
YF
6,475
6,366.26
6,512.19
• government
YG
10,549.46
8,323.26
8,587.13
(0.59) (1.43) (1.68)
(20.53)
(5.37) (0.49) (0.57)
(18.60)
DISPOSABLE INCOME • labour endowed households
YDHhw
28,420
28,252.67
26,895.31
• capital endowed households
YDHhc
12,350
12,172.91
12,410.57
• labour endowed households
SHhw
2,842
2,825.27
2,689.53
• capital endowed households
SHhc
2,470
2,434.58
2,482.11
• firms
SF
2,910
2,823.01
2,939.75
• government
SG
1,709.96
456.75
1,709.46
(0.59) (1.43)
(5.37) (0.49)
SAVINGS (0.59) (1.43) (2.99)
(5.37) (0.49) (1.02)
(126.72)
(0.00)
RECEIPTS FROM DIRECT TAXATION • labour endowed households
DTHhw
580
576.59
548.88
• capital endowed households
DTHhc
650
640.68
653.19
DTF
1,295
1,273.25
1,302.44
• agricultural products
TIagr
152.34
146.58
146.62
• industrial products
TIind
3,244.22
3,009.24
3,126.,53
• services
TIser
675
665.98
654.27
TIEagr
90
91.84
101.38
(2.04)
(12.65)
• agricultural products
TIMagr
37.9
• industrial products
TIMind
3,825
• firms
(0.59) (1.43) (1.68)
(5.37) (0.49) (0.57)
RECEIPTS FROM INDIRECT TAXATION (3.78) (7.24) (1.34)
(3.75) (3.63) (3.07)
RECEIPTS FROM TAXES ON EXPORTS • agricultural products
RECEIPTS FROM DUTIES ON IMPORTS
EXTER
35.68
(5.85)
1,943.42 (49.19)
34.41
(9.21)
2,019.41
(47.21)
33
DEFINITIONS
SYMBOL
BENCHMARK
SIM1: tmind -50%
SIM2: tmind -50%; SG FIXED
D E M AN D LABOUR ENDOWED HOUSEHOLDS – CONSUMPTION • agriculture
Cagr,hw
4,158.62
• industry
Cind,hw
• services
Cser,hw
4,225.07
4,172.01
(1.60)
(0.32)
10,196.69
10,871.86
10,352.59
(6.62)
(1.53)
9,657.28
9,782.96
9,582.25
(1.30)
(0.78)
607.30
642.23
CAPITAL ENDOWED HOUSEHOLDS – CONSUMPTION • agriculture
Cagr,hc
602.87
• industry
Cind,hc
• services
Cser,hc
Public expenditures
G
(0.73)
(6.53)
3,323.25
3,513.18
3,582.82
(5.72)
(7.81)
5,395.15
5,418.90
5,684.44
(0.44)
(5.36)
8,700
8,700.00
6,737.67
(0.00)
(-22.56)
INTERMEDIATE DEMAND • agricultural products
DITagr
1,124.47
1,120.17
1,135.24
• industrial products
DITind
34,009.57
33,807.05
34,757.18
• services
DITser
7,447.57
7,419.63
7,599.55
• agricultural products
INVagr
1,693.05
1,500.46
1,783.36
• industrial products
INVind
14,010.50
13,030.66
14,935.32
IT
17,355.46
15,050.11
17,244.86
(-13.28)
(-0.64)
(0.38) (0.60) (0.38)
(0.96) (2.20) (2.04)
INVESTMENT DEMAND
• total
(11.38)
(6.99)
(5.33) (6.60)
LOCAL OUTPUT SOLD ON DOMESTIC MARKET • agricultural products
Dagr
7,200
7,097.96
7,394.45
• industrial products
Dind
46,240
45,603.91
47,398.87
• services
Dser
19,800
19,917.22
20,148.86
(0.59)
(1.76)
• agriculture
Qagr
7,579
7,453.00
7,732.84
• industry
Qind
61,540
61,222.75
63,627.91
• services
Qser
22,500
22,261.48
22,866.24
(0.54)
(1.63)
(1.42) (1.38)
(2.70) (2.51)
COMPOSITE COMMODITY (1.66) (0.52)
(2.03) (3.39)
IN T E RN A TI ON AL T R AD E IMPORTS • agricultural products
Magr
379
356.83
344.09
• industrial products
Mind
15,300
15,547.32
16,155.25
(1.62)
(5.59)
• services
Mser
2,700
2,704.37
2,718.09
(0.16)
(0.67)
EXagr
1,800
1,836.79
2,027.67
• industrial products
EXind
• services Current account balance
(5.85)
(-9.21)
EXPORTS • agricultural products
34
(2.04)
(12.65)
8,160
8,274.40
8,601.86
(1.40)
(5.42)
EXser
2,200
2,260.95
2,362.83
(2.77)
(7.40)
CAB
7,424
7,424.00
7,424.00
(0.00)
(0.00)
FFC-PEP Workshop, August 2010
Model EXTER 2: Non-Infinite Foreign Demand for Exports Equations and variables Simulation results
EXTER 2: Equations and variables A. E Q U A TI O N S (110) Production 1. VA j v j XS j
4
2. CI j io j XS j
4
3. VAtr Atr LDtr KDtr1 tr
3
tr
4. VAntr LDntr PVAtr VAtr 5. LDtr tr
1
6. LDntr
1
3
W Pntr XS ntr PCtr DI tr ,ntr tr
W
7. DI tr , j aijtr , j CI j
12
Income and savings 8. YH hw W LD j TG
1
j
9. YH hc Rtr KDtr DIV
1
tr
10. YDH h YH h DTH h
2
11. SH h hYDH h
2
12. YF 1 ROW
R
13. SF YF DIV DIV
KDtr
1
DTF
1
tr
tr ROW
14. YG TI tr DTH h DTF TIM tr TIEtr tr
h
15. SG YG G TG
tr
1
tr
1
16. TI tr txtr PLtr Dtr txtr 1 tmtr e PWM tr M tr
3
17. TIM tr tmtr e PWM tr M tr
3
18. TIEtr tetr PEtr EX tr
3
19. DTH h tyhh YH h
2
20. DTF tyf YF
1
Demand 21. Ctr ,h
tr ,h YDH h
PCtr IT 22. INVtr tr PCtr
23. DITtr DI tr , j
6 3 3
j
36
FFC-PEP Workshop, August 2010
Prices 24. PVA j 25. Rtr
Pj XS j PCtr DI tr , j
4
tr
VA j
PVAtr VAtr W LDtr KDtr
3
26. PDtr 1 txtr PLtr
3
27. PM tr 1 txtr 1 tmtr e PWM tr
3
28. PEtr
e PEtrFOB
3
1 tetr
PDtr Dtr PM tr M tr Qtr PL D PEtr EX tr 30. Ptr tr tr XStr
29. PCtr
3 3
31. PINDEX j PVA j
1
j
International Trade 32. XStr
BtrE
trE
PEtr PLtr
33. EX tr
EX tr 1
E tr
1 trE E tr
PWE 34. EXDtr EXDtr0 FOBtr PEtr
E tr
tr
3
Dtr
trE
3
M
trM M 1 tr
3
trE
35. Qtr AtrM trM M tr tr 1 trM Dtr tr PDtr 36. M tr PM tr
1
E E D tr tr
M
1
trM
3
trM
3
Dtr
37. CAB e PWM tr M tr ROW Rtr KDtr DIV ROW e PEtrFOB EX tr tr
tr
1
tr
Equilibrium 38. Qtr DITtr Ctr ,h INVtr
3
h
39. EXDtr EX tr
3
41. XS ntr Pntr G
1
40. LS LD j
1
j
41. IT SH h SF SG CAB
1
h
EXTER 2
37
B. E N DO G E N O U S Ctr ,h : CI j :
Dtr : DI tr , j :
DITtr : DTF :
DTH h : e :
EX tr : EXDtr : INVtr : IT :
LD j :
M tr :
Pi : PCtr : PDtr : PEtr : PEtrFOB : PINDEX :
PLtr : PM tr : PVA j :
Qtr : Rtr : SF : SG :
SH h : TI tr : TIEtr : TIM tr : VA j : W :
XS j :
YDH h : YF :
YG :
YH h :
38
(110) Consumption of commodity tr by type h households (volume) Total intermediate consumption of industry j (volume) Demand for domestic commodity tr (volume) Intermediate consumption of commodity tr in industry j (volume) Intermediate demand for commodity tr (volume) Receipts from direct taxation on firms' income Receipts from direct taxation on household h's income Exchange rate Exports of commodity tr (volume) Demand for exports in commodity tr (volume) Investment demand for commodity tr (volume) Total investment Industry j demand for labour (volume) Imports of commodity tr (volume) Producer price of commodity i Consumer price of composite commodity tr Domestic price of commodity tr including taxes Domestic price of exported commodity tr FOB price of exported commodity tr GDP deflator Domestic price of commodity tr (excluding taxes) Domestic price of imported commodity tr Value added price for industry j Demand for composite commodity tr (volume) Rate of return to capital in industry tr Firms' savings Government's savings Household h's savings Receipts from indirect tax on tr Receipts from tax on export tr Receipts from import duties tr Value added for industry j (volume) Wage rate Output of industry j (volume) Household h's disposable income Firms' income Government's income Household h's income V AR I AB L E S
6 4 3 12 3 1 2 1 3 3 3 1 4 3 4 3 3 3 3 1 3 3 4 3 3 1 1 2 3 3 3 4 1 4 2 1 1 2
FFC-PEP Workshop, August 2010
C. E XO G E N O U S
(18) Current account balance Dividends paid to capitalists households Dividends paid to the rest of the World Benchmark value of demand for exports tr (volume) Public expenditures Industry j demand for capital (volume) Total labour supply (volume) World price of export tr World price of import tr Public transfers to workers
V AR I A B L E S
CAB :
DIV :
DIV ROW : EXDtr0 :
G :
KDtr : LS :
PWE tr : PWM tr : TG :
1 1 1 3 1 3 1 3 3 1
D. P A RA M ET E R S Production functions Scale coefficient (Cobb-Douglas production function) Atr : Input-output coefficient aij tr , j : Elasticity (Cobb-Douglas production function) tr : Technical coefficient io j : Technical coefficient vj : CES and CET functions Scale coefficient (CES function) AtrM : E Scale coefficient (CET function) Btr : M Share parameter (CES function) tr : E Share parameter (CET function) tr : E Transformation parameter (CET function) tr : M Substitution parameter (CES function) tr : M Substitution elasticity (CES function) tr : E Transformation elasticity (CET function) tr : Tax rates tetr : tmtr : txtr : tyf :
tyhh :
Tax on exports tr Import duties on commodity tr Tax rate on commodity tr Direct tax rate on firms' income Direct tax rate on household h's income
Other parameters Share of industry j in total value added j : E Price elasticity of demand for exports tr tr Share of the value of commodity tr in disposable of household h tr ,h : Share of the value of capital income received by capitalists : ROW : Share of capital income received by foreigners h : Propensity to save tr : Share of the value of commodity tr in total investment EXTER 2
39
E.
S E TS
i, j I AGR, IND, SER, NTR tr TR AGR, IND, SER h H HW , HC
40
All industries and commodities (AGR: agriculture, IND: industry, SER: services, NTR: non-tradable services) Tradable commodities Households (HW: labour endowed households, HC: capital endowed households)
FFC-PEP Workshop, August 2010
EXTER 2: Simulation results DEFINITIONS
SYMBOL
BENCHMARK
SIM1: tmind -50%
E tr
= 3.0
SIM2: tmind -50%
trE = 0.5
P R IC E S • wage rate
W
1
PINDEX
0.988
0.968
(-1.18)
(-3.16)
1
0.983
0.961
(-1.69)
(-3.94)
e
1
1.000
1.000
(0.00)
(0.00)
Ragr
1
0.978
0.956
• industry
Rind
• services
• GDP Deflator • Exchange rate (numeraire)
RATE OF RETURN TO CAPITAL • agriculture
(-2.16)
(-4.42)
1
0.963
0.935
(-3.73)
(-6.47)
Rser
1
1.000
0.973
(-0.05)
(-2.67)
PVAagr
1
0.986
0.966
• industry
PVAind
• services • non-tradable services
VALUE ADDED PRICE • agriculture
(-1.38)
(-3.41)
1
0.973
0.948
(-2.72)
(-5.16)
PVAser
1
0.993
0.970
(-0.73)
(-2.96)
PVAntr
1
0.988
0.968
(-1.18)
(-3.16)
Pagr
1
0.976
0.957
• industry
Pind
• services • non-tradable services
PRODUCER PRICE • agriculture
(-2.37)
(-4.26)
1
0.949
0.933
(-5.08)
(-6.74)
Pser
1
0.975
0.956
(-2.48)
(-4.39)
Pntr
1
0.978
0.960
(-2.15)
(-3.99)
0.998
0.980
CONSUMER PRICE OF COM POSITE COMMODITY • agriculture
PCagr
1.025
• industry
PCind
• services
PCser
(-2.67)
(-4.41)
1.115
1.036
1.022
(-7.11)
(-8.29)
1.03
1.006
0.989
(-2.35)
(-3.99)
0.991
0.973
CONSUMER PRICE OF COMMODITY SOLD DOMESTICALLY • agriculture
PDagr
1.02
• industry
PDind
• services
PDser
(-2.82)
(-4.65)
1.05
0.988
0.970
(-5.90)
(-7.58)
1.03
1.003
0.983
(-2.67)
(-4.53)
0.972
0.954
PRODUCER PRICE OF COMMODITY S OLD DOMESTICALLY • agriculture
PLagr
1
• industry
PLind
• services
(-2.82)
(-4.65)
1
0.941
0.924
(-5.90)
(-7.58)
PLser
1
0.973
0.955
(-2.67)
(-4.53)
PMagr
1.122
1.122
1.122
• industry
PMind
1.312
• services
PMser
1.030
PRICE OF IMPORTS • agriculture
EXTER 2
(0.00)
(0.00)
1.181
1.181
(-10.00)
(-10.00)
1.030
1.030
(0.00)
(0.00)
41
DEFINITIONS
SYMBOL
BENCHMARK
SIM1: tmind -50%
SIM2: tmind -50%
trE = 3.0
trE = 0.5
PRODUCER PRICE OF EXPORTED COMMODITY • agriculture
PEagr
1
• industry
PEind
• services
PEser
0.994
0.973
(-0.62)
(-2.70)
1
0.996
0.979
(-0.45)
(-2.08)
1
0.992
0.969
(-0.80)
(-3.15)
1.043
1.022
FOB PRICE OF EXPORTED COMMODIT Y • agriculture
FOB PEagr
1.05
(-0.62)
(-2.70)
0.979
• industry
FOB PEind
1
0.996 (-0.45)
(-2.08)
• services
FOB PEser
1
0.992
0.969
(-0.80)
(-3.15)
8,928.88
8,906.38
P R O D UC TI ON AN D F A CTO R S OUTPUT • agriculture
XSagr
9,000
• industry
XSind
• services • non-tradable services
(-0.79)
(-1.04)
54,400
53,834.85
53,649.31
(-1.04)
(-1.38)
XSser
22,000
22,151.43
22,066.85
(0.69)
(0.30)
XSntr
8,700
8,891.26
9,061.78
(2.20)
(4.16)
VAagr
7,200
7,143.10
7,125.10
• industry
VAind
• services • non-tradable services
VALUE ADDED • agriculture
(-0.79)
(-1.04)
18,900
18,703.65
18,639.19
(-1.04)
(-1.38)
VAser
14,300
14,398.43
14,343.45
(0.69)
(0.30)
VAntr
6,960
7,113.01
7,249.42
(2.20)
(4.16)
LDagr
5,760
5,703.16
5,685.20
• industry
LDind
• services • non-tradable services
LABOUR • agriculture
(-0.99)
(-1.30)
7,560
7,365.18
7,301.88
(-2.58)
(-3.41)
LDser
8,580
8,678.65
8,623.49
(1.15)
(0.51)
LDntr
6,960
7,113.01
7,249.42
(2.20)
(4.16)
LS
28,860
28,860.00
28,860.00
(0.00)
(0.00)
KDagr
1,440
1,440.00
1,440.00
• industry
KDind
• services
• total
CAPITAL • agriculture
(0.00)
(0.00)
11,340
11,340.00
11,340.00
(0.00)
(0.00)
KDser
5,720
5,720.00
5,720.00
(0.00)
(0.00)
CIagr
1,637.16
1,624.22
1,620.13
• industry
CIind
• services • non-tradable services
TOTAL INTERMEDIATE CONSUMPTION • agriculture
42
(-0.79)
(-1.04)
32,280.28
31,944.93
31,834.83
(-1.04)
(-1.38)
CIser
7,073.04
7,121.73
7,094.53
(0.69)
(0.30)
CIntr
1,591.12
1,626.10
1,657.29
(2.20)
(4.16)
FFC-PEP Workshop, August 2010
DEFINITIONS
SYMBOL
BENCHMARK
DIagr,agr
156.08
DIind,agr
SIM1: tmind -50%
SIM2: tmind -50%
trE = 3.0
trE = 0.5
INTERMEDIATE CONSUMPT ION • agriculture
• industry
• services
• non-tradable services
154.85
154.46
(-0.79)
(-1.04)
1,349.03
1,338.37
1,335.00
(-0.79)
(-1.04)
DIser,agr
132.04
131.00
130.67
(-0.79)
(-1.04)
DIagr,ind
680.12
673.05
670.73
(-1.04)
(-1.38)
DIind,ind
26,565.21
26,289.23
26,198.63
(-1.04)
(-1.38)
DIser,ind
5,034.95
4,982.64
4,965.47
(-1.04)
(-1.38)
DIagr,ser
172.81
174.00
173.34
(0.69)
(0.30)
DIind,ser
4,896.93
4,930.64
4,911.81
(0.69)
(0.30)
DIser,ser
2,003.30
2,017.09
2,009.39
(0.69)
(0.30)
DIagr,ntr
115.45
117.99
120.25
(2.20)
(4.16)
DIind,ntr
1,198.39
1,224.74
1,248.22
(2.20)
(4.16)
DIser,ntr
277.28
283.38
288.81
(2.20)
(4.16)
28,659.02 (-1.18) 12,726.15 (-2.11) 6,315.26 (-2.47) 8,334.10 (-21.00)
28,087.93 (-3.15) 12,430.23 (-4.38) 6,142.63 (-5.13) 8,167.75 (-22.58)
28,085.84 (-1.18) 12,089.85
27,526.18 (-3.15) 11,808.71
(-2.11)
(-4.38)
145.65
142.50
IN C O M E AN D S AV IN G S INCOME • labour endowed households
YHhw
29,000
• capital endowed households
YHhc
13,000
• firms
YF
6,475
• government
YG
10,549.46
DISPOSABLE INCOME • labour endowed households
YDHhw
28,420
• capital endowed households
YDHhc
12,350
TIagr
152.34
• industrial products
TIind
• services
RECEIPTS FROM INDIRECT TAXATION • agricultural products
(-4.39)
(-6.46)
3,244.22
2,992.22
2,934.64
(-7.77)
(-9.54)
TIser
675
661.95
648.34
(-1.93)
(-3.95)
TIMagr
37.9
TIMind
3,825
TIMser
0
TIEagr
90
DTHhw
580
DTHhc
RECEIPTS FROM DUTIES ON IMPORTS • agricultural products • industrial products • services
35.27
33.89
(-6.95)
(-10.58)
1,935.34
1,907.81
(-49.40)
(-50.12)
0.00
0.00
(0.00)
(0.00)
91.13
88.78
(1.26)
(-1.36)
573.18
561.76
RECEIPTS FROM TAXES ON EXPORTS • agricultural products
RECEIPTS FROM DIRECT TAXATION • labour endowed households • capital endowed households • firms
EXTER 2
DTF
(-1.18)
(-3.15)
650
636.31
621.51
(-2.11)
(-4.38)
1,295
1,263.05
1,228.53
(-2.47)
(-5.13)
43
DEFINITIONS
SYMBOL
BENCHMARK
SIM1: tmind -50%
SIM2: tmind -50%
trE = 3.0
trE = 0.5
SAVINGS • labour endowed households
SHhw
2,842
SHhc
• firms • government
• capital endowed households
2,808.58
2,752.62
(-1.18)
(-3.15)
2,470
2,417.97
2,361.74
(-2.11)
(-4.38)
SF
2,910
2,782.21
2,644.11
(-4.39)
(-9.14)
SG
1,709.96
-505.90
-672.25
(-129.59)
(-139.33)
4,222.40
4,213.46
D E M AN D LABOUR ENDOWED HOUSEHOLDS – CONSUMPTION • agriculture
Cagr,hw
4,158.62
• industry
Cind,hw
• services
Cser,hw
(1.53)
(1.32)
10,196.69
10,848.55
10,768.76
(6.39)
(5.61)
9,657.28
9,773.43
9,742.44
(1.20)
(0.88)
606.35
603.01
CAPITAL ENDOWED HOUSE HOLDS – CONSUMPTION • agriculture
Cagr,hc
602.87
• industry
Cind,hc
• services
Cser,hc
Public expenditures
G
(0.58)
(0.02)
3,323.25
3,502.41
3,464.84
(5.39)
(4.26)
5,395.15
5,408.61
5,373.16
(0.25)
(-0.41)
8,700
8,700.00
8,700.00
(0.00)
(0.00)
1,119.89
1,118.78
INTERMEDIATE DEMAND • agricultural products
DITagr
1,124.47
• industrial products
DITind
• services
(-0.41)
(-0.51)
34,009.57
33,782.97
33,693.66
(-0.67)
(-0.93)
DITser
7,447.57
7,414.11
7,394.34
(-0.45)
(-0.72)
INVagr
1,693.05
1,496.06
1,480.73
INVind IT
INVESTMENT DEMAND • agricultural products • industrial products • total
(-11.64)
(-12.54)
14,010.50
12,972.84
12,772.50
(-7.41)
(-8.84)
17,355.46
14,926.86
14,510.21
(-13.99)
(-16.39)
7,094.30
7,081.12
LOCAL OUTPUT SOLD ON DOMESTIC MARKET • agricultural products
Dagr
7,200
• industrial products
Dind
• services
(-1.47)
(-1.65)
46,240
45,559.40
45,397.29
(-1.47)
(-1.82)
Dser
19,800
19,897.65
19,831.18
(0.49)
(0.16)
Qagr
7,579
7,444.71
7,415.98
• industry
Qind
• services
Qser
COMPOSITE COMMODITY • agriculture
(-1.77)
(-2.15)
61,540
61,106.77
60,699.76
(-0.70)
(-1.37)
22,500
22,596.15
22,509.94
(0.43)
(0.04)
352.68
338.89
INTERNATIONAL TRADE IMPORTS • agricultural products
Magr
379
• industrial products
Mind
• services
Mser
44
(-6.95)
(-10.58)
15,300
15,482.75
15,262.46
(1.19)
(-0.25)
2,700
2,698.67
2,679.28
(-0.05)
(-0.77)
FFC-PEP Workshop, August 2010
DEFINITIONS
SYMBOL
BENCHMARK
SIM1: tmind -50%
SIM2: tmind -50%
trE = 3.0
trE = 0.5
EXPORTS (SUPPLY=DEMAND) • agricultural products
EXagr
1,800
• industrial products
EXind
• services Current account balance
EXTER 2
1,834.04
1,824.81
(1.89)
(1.38)
8,160
8,269.85
8,246.16
(1.35)
(1.06)
EXser
2,200
2,253.41
2,235.46
(2.43)
(1.61)
CAB
7,424
7,424.00
7,424.00
(0.00)
(0.00)
45