Towards Competitive Universal High-speed Broadband Access
Dr. Sanjay S. Patel CTO, Wireline Networks Product Division WIK International Conference, Berlin, April 2010
Outline
FTTx market update
Next generation fixed access
Architectural/wholesale evolution
2 | Sanjay S. Patel - WIK Berlin, April 2010
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Mass-market multimedia devices are changing our personal lifestyle High-definition TV sets (50% of TVs purchased are HD-ready (5% in ’05))
MP3 players (35 Mio sold in ’06, 30% growth)
NG game consoles w/Internet (PS3, Xbox 360, Wii: Nintendo forecasts 16M units in ’07)
Digital photography (20% of BB subs used Internet upload services)
Multimedia-capable PCs (25 Mio sold in ‘06, 10% growth)
Digital cameras (Owned by 60% of households end ’06)
Heavy Reading FTTH Market in Europe 2006-2011
Consumer-focus Multimedia applications drive the demand for UHS broadband
3 | Sanjay S. Patel - WIK Berlin, April 2010
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Fiber Nations are gaining ground around the world Europe is struggling behind
~6.8M
~2.3M
Source: FTTH C NAR (Sept 2009); FTTH C Europe/iDate (Sept.2009 + including Russia); FTTH C AP/Ovum (Sept 2009)
4 | Sanjay S. Patel - WIK Berlin, April 2010
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~32.2M
European Economies with greater than 1% household FTTH/B Penetration 12,0%
Europe mid 2009
10,0%
2M FTTH/B subscribers
8,0%
13M FTTH/B homes passed
6,0% 4,0%
4M FTTx subscribers
2,0%
ia tv La
a
ia R us s
to ni
ly
Es
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rra D en m ar k Ic el an d Li th ua ni N a et he rla nd s Sl ov ak ia Fi nl an d
ia
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ov en
ay
Sl
N or w
Sw ed
en
0,0%
30M FTTx homes passed
Fiber To The Home Subscribers Fiber To The Building Subscribers
Source: IDATE for FTTH Council Europe
The Nordics is taking the lead, with Central and Eastern Europe making good progress. Major European economies still not in top-10. 5 | Sanjay S. Patel - WIK Berlin, April 2010
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What is wrong in Western Europe? 16
50%
14
45%
WE
Dec 07
WE
WE
June 08
South Korea
15%
USA
2
20%
FTTH/B take rate
Japan
WE
4
Japan
25%
South Korea
6
30%
Japan USA
USA
8
35%
Japan
10
South Korea
South Korea
12
40%
USA
FTTH/B subscriber [M]
Why is FTTH/B so limited? Any why is the take-rate so low?
10% 5% 0%
Dec 08
Unclear regulatory framework? No local marketing? Unclear business case? Competition? Economic stimulus? Few nation-wide FTTH strategies? Good copper? End-user mentality? 6 | Sanjay S. Patel - WIK Berlin, April 2010
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Outline
FTTx market update
Next generation fixed access
Architectural/wholesale evolution
7 | Sanjay S. Patel - WIK Berlin, April 2010
All Rights Reserved © Alcatel-Lucent 2010
Fiber to the most economical point The pragmatic way
ADSL ~12 Mbps
VDSL ~50 Mbps
GPON 100 Mbps+
VDSL ~50 Mbps
P2P/AE 100 Mbps+ VDSL ~100 Mbps
Drivers: up-front CAPEX, competition, and time-to-market 8 | Sanjay S. Patel - WIK Berlin, April 2010
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300Mbps over 2 pairs @ 400m – Bell Labs “Phantom mode” innovative demo 300Mbps in 5 steps Start with a 1st twisted pair – good for about 80Mbps.
Add a 2nd twisted pair – good for another 80Mbps.
Apply vectoring Create a 3rd virtual pair or (crosstalk cancelation) ‘phantom mode’ pair – another to boost bit rate by 50Mbps. approx 50%. BUT: bit rates on pairs 1 & 2 drop due to Xtalk from phantom pair. 400m quad pair 0.6mm
1
Bond the 3 links (2 physical pairs + phantom mode) creating one big 300Mbps pipe.
4
2
5
Downstream bit rate (Mbps)
3 4
300 250
Bonded Phantom Mode
200
Line 2
150
Line 1
5
2
100 50
3
1
0 First line
+ 2nd line
+Phantom Mode
+Vectoring
+Bonding
Industry-first demonstration of 300Mbps@400m over 2 pairs Innovative combination of phantom mode + vectoring 9 | Sanjay S. Patel - WIK Berlin, April 2010
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A Basic Comparison of Four FTTH Architectures Central Office
Point -toPoint
More concentrated
Access loop
Home
Efficient Outside Plant
More distributed
IP
Splicing Ethernet switch
Passive OSP
No remote powering
Cost-effective Feeder Active Ethernet
IP Ethernet switch
Ethernet switch
Smaller duct sizes, Less RoW,…
CO consolidation
Wavelength per user WDM PON
IP PON OLT
Wavelength Splitter
Few fibers in feeder section
CO consolidation
Best Scalability TDM PON
Passive OSP, lowest CAPEX
IP PON OLT
10 | Sanjay S. Patel - WIK Berlin, April 2010
Optical splitter All Rights Reserved © Alcatel-Lucent 2010
CO scalability & Consol. (20+ km)
Next generation point-to-point fiber How to improve P2P scalability? P2P scalability issues…
…innovation areas to expect
Increased Capacity
4
Power (W/user)
FE → GE → 10GE→ 100GE 3
High Density optics Dual Channel SFP
2
Quad SFP 1
High Density fiber 0
p2p
AE
GPON
Ribbon fiber Multi-fiber connectors
Main area of innovation for P2P is higher density optics, fiber and connectors. 11 | Sanjay S. Patel - WIK Berlin, April 2010
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10G PON value proposition – not only capacity Capacity, reach, split and optical troubleshooting 1 Three target applications
Extended 10 Gb/s PON
10 Gb/s PON 2010-2011
10 Gb/s
RE
1.FTTB backhaul 2.Business Access 3.Fiber to the base-station: LTE backhaul
RE
2.5 Gb/s GPON B+ Today
Reach Split
C+ 2 GPON 2009-2010
GPON 3 Extended 2009-2010
20km
30 km
60 km
32
64
128
Less dense areas addressed and central office consolidation
12 | Sanjay S. Patel - WIK Berlin, April 2010
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No fork-lift upgrade for 10G GPON Wavelength overlay in both uplink and downlink WDM to split GPON from 10 Gb/s GPON
GPON
10 Gb/s GPON
No changes to OSP, including fiber and splitter
Many GPON ONTs today have WBF GPON
10 Gb/s GPON
10 Gb/s on different wavelengths (up and down) XGPON up
GPON up
GPON down
CATV
1260 -1280
1290 -1330
1480 -1500
1550 -1560
XGPON down
1575 -1580
No stranded investments: GPON OLT, ONT and OSP can be reused 13 | Sanjay S. Patel - WIK Berlin, April 2010
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λ (in nm)
What about WDM PON? CAPEX and operational disadvantages CAPEX 10G PON
GPON
Operations
TDM PON
WDM PON
CAPEX
Lowest cost FTTH
x3-4 TDM PON
OPEX
Low
Eco
Lowest power consumption
CO Power, CO floor space High power consumption
Standardized
Yes
Not started
Dynamic BW
Yes
Not possible
Video overlay
Yes
Not possible
Passive OSP
Passive splitters
Temp controlled or temp extended AWG
System Design
Straight forward
Reliability
Excellent
WDM PON
(10Gb on top of 2.5Gb) (Everyone Gets a Lamda)
OLT Splitter ONT
Based on a 1:32 split
GPON
Today
Over Time
Today
Long term
Complex, many dependencies AWG needs to be athermal & reliable
WDM PON (as P2P) solutions are subscriber density ‘challenged’ 14 | Sanjay S. Patel - WIK Berlin, April 2010
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Outline
FTTx market update
Next generation fixed access
Architectural/wholesale evolution
15 | Sanjay S. Patel - WIK Berlin, April 2010
All Rights Reserved © Alcatel-Lucent 2010
Private and public hand in hand The layered model
End-user Retail Services (residential, public & business)
Active Network (network equipments, business & operation support)
Passive Infrastructure (trenches, ducts, fibre)
Retail Service Provider
Retail Service Provider Active Network Provider
Passive Infrastructure Provider
16 | Sanjay S. Patel - WIK Berlin, April 2010
Integrated or separated?
Active Network Provider
Passive Infrastructure Provider
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Zooming into the different sharing options “Open Access” is not well defined and is sometimes abused Content Provider
Service “Open Access”
GPON
P2P
WDM PON
SLA
Application Provider IP & Ethernet Wholesale
Active “Unbundling”
Network Provider
Open Access (Packet)
Open Access (Wavelength)
Wavelength Dark fiber
Passive
Dark Fibre Provider
“Infrastructure Competition”
Ducts, Sewers, Poles
Passive Infra. Provider
Open Access (Fiber) Feeder (Duct) Open Access filling
Sharing can take place at many layers, independently of technology 17 | Sanjay S. Patel - WIK Berlin, April 2010
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Infrastructure and service based competition Require different degrees of regulatory intervention Vertically Integrated
Active Sharing
Provider
Retail Service
Provider
Retail Service
Provider
Retail Service
Provider
Retail Service
18 | Sanjay S. Patel - WIK Berlin, April 2010
Provider
Access to public infrastructure
Retail Service
Provider
Retail Service
Vertical Service Provider
Vertical Service Provider
Vertical Service Provider
Infrastructure Owner
Full separation
Vertical Infrastructure Provider
Infrastructure Competition
Competition
Regulation
Vertically Integrated Operator
Passive
Vertically Integrated Operator
Active
Vertically Integrated Operator
Service
Passive Sharing
Network Operator Infrastructure Owner
Service Competition “Open Access”
Regulated passive wholesale
Regulated active wholesale
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Regulated passive & active wholesale
General principle, based on lessons from DSL: Prepare for competition on the lowest feasible layer Competition on lowest possible layer for DSL is gaining ground
Merits of infrastructure based competition 5 Differentiation Capacity
Local loop unbundling
QoS/QoE 5 Innovation 5Technology agnostic:
Bitstream
P2P GPON WDM PON 5Independent migration to NGA 5End-to-end fiber trouble shooting
Lesson learnt from DSL: Infrastructure based competition prevails. Bitstream: Entry strategy & When infra competition not feasible 19 | Sanjay S. Patel - WIK Berlin, April 2010
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Content Provider
Multi-fiber to the Central Office/Metro PoP has CAPEX, OPEX and reliability issues
SLA
Application Provider IP & Ethernet Wholesale
Multi fiber
Network Provider Wavelength Dark fiber
Dark Fibre Provider Ducts, Sewers, Poles
Passive Infra. Provider
Multi-fiber in feeder segment
Multi-fiber in terminating segment
Central Offices Infra Sharing Point
CO 1
Fiber Mangement Point
WDM PON CO2 GPON CO3 P2P
Fiber mgmt in CO CAPEX floor space
Filling ratio: New ducts needed? CAPEX fiber Reliability: fiber cut
Synchronous co-investment Limited competition: # competitors ≤ # fibers
Significant probability of misconnection
Multi-fiber to the metro PoP is expensive, with severe operational hurdles and not necessary to stimulate infrastructure competition 20 | Sanjay S. Patel - WIK Berlin, April 2010
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Content Provider
Dark Fiber Sharing in the Terminating Segment Fiber Flexibility Point Supports Any Technology
SLA
Application Provider IP & Ethernet Wholesale
Dark fiber
Network Provider Wavelength Dark fiber
Dark Fibre Provider Ducts, Sewers, Poles
Passive Infra. Provider
Duct/sewer/trench sharing Dark Fiber Sharing in the horizontal OSP in terminating segment Central Offices Fiber Flexibility Point
Infra Sharing Point
CO 1 WDM PON CO2 GPON patch panel
CO3 P2P
CAPEX per Subscriber
Rural
Fiber mgmt Urban optimum
€2,000
CPE
€1,500 €1,000 €500
CO equipment & floor space
Fiber
Civil Work Terminating Segment
Civil work OSP
Duct/sewer sharing in horizontal OSP & dark fiber in terminating segment is optimal from a techno-economic point of view 21 | Sanjay S. Patel - WIK Berlin, April 2010
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Wider benefits of fibre Reduced telecom costs E-learning Innovation in public services: Healthcare Elderly care Rural GDP Reversed urbanization trend
Simulate collaboration: between municipalities, public bodies and communities
ICT innovation/R&D
22 | Sanjay S. Patel - WIK Berlin, April 2010
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FTTH policy of competition on lowest feasible layer Public investment model should consider geographical segmentation 100 %
Market Driven
Risk Driven
Policy Driven
Services
Private €
Fraction public to private investment
Small town Active Hudiksvall
Village Kilafors Lindefallet
Medium-size town
Jönkoping
Passive
Public €
Dense city
Stockholm
0%
Low
Socio-economic impact of fiber
High
Socio-economic impact
Low/Medium
Medium
High
Investor Payback Time
~5 year
~10 year
~20 year
Public Sector Intervention
Access to infra, RoW,
Ducts, sewers,
Passive, active.
in-house labeling..
dark fiber. Active?
Utility services?
23 | Sanjay S. Patel - WIK Berlin, April 2010
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Summary Consumers benefit from competition where they can independently choose ISPs, ACPs , and, can easily switch between providers Promote competition at the lowest possible layer Remain technology neutral y Promote innovation y Let providers compete on the merits of their innovation y Do not impose regulatory burden on one technology over another
Apply graduated remedies /public investment based on geographic segmentation in case of market failure to promote Universal Broadband Access When multiple Retail SPs per subscriber are allowed, the Wholesale SP must coordinate resources among RSPs and resolve conflicts. y Likely that static partitioning among RSPs will be required (e.g., bandwidth per VLAN)
A technology-agnostic, graduated regulatory environment can promote Competitive Universal Broadband Access 24 | Sanjay S. Patel - WIK Berlin, April 2010
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www.alcatel-lucent.com www.alcatel-lucent.com
25 | Sanjay S. Patel - WIK Berlin, April 2010
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Content Provider
Sub local-loop unbundling
SLA
Application Provider IP & Ethernet Wholesale
Network Provider
SLU
Widespread agreement that complexity outweighs benefits Central Offices
Infrastructure Sharing Point
SC1
Mini MDF
Ducts, Sewers, Poles
Passive Infra. Provider
Unbundling cost: •Must be regulated •SLU
