Top 10 Global Growth Markets 67th Virginia Conference on World Trade November 5, 2015
Courtney Rickert McCaffrey
[email protected]
Developed markets
Canada and the UK continue to provide export opportunities for U.S. businesses United Kingdom • 2016 GDP growth: 2.2%
Canada • 2016 GDP growth: 1.7%
• Consumption growth: 2.7%
• Consumption growth: 1.7%
• Investment growth: 3.8%
• Investment growth: 0.5%
• Imports growth: 2.7%
• Imports growth: 2.3%
• Share of U.S. exports: 5.0%
• Share of U.S. exports: 16.0%
• Share of services exports: 9.0% • Sources of opportunity
• Share of services exports: 8.6% • Sources of opportunity
• Long-time economic partner of the United States • Consumer confidence and spending growth is high • British pound has risen in value against the US dollar this year Sources: International Monetary Fund, Economist Intelligence Unit, U.S. Census Bureau, A.T. Kearney analysis
• NAFTA and TPP member • United States is largest source of imports • New government is seeking to stimulate the economy, especially through infrastructure spending 2
Emerging markets
An analysis of eight factors reveals which emerging markets are poised to drive new business opportunities and global growth Identifying the next wave of emerging market growth
Policy factors
Economic factors Size of economy Economic performance
Reform status
Regulations and governance
Emerging growth markets
Economic imbalances
Economic resilience
Infrastructure Labor force
Growth-facilitating factors Source: A.T. Kearney analysis
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Emerging markets
The “2020-Seven” Growth Markets Scores Size of economy
Economic performance
Economic resilience
Economic imbalances
Very High Labor force
High Infrastructure
Moderate Regulations and governance
Low Reform status
Very Low
Growth market
China Malaysia Chile Poland Peru Mexico Philippines Indonesia Turkey Colombia Romania Thailand India Kazakhstan South Africa Nigeria Hungary Brazil Iran Russia
Argentina Pakistan Algeria Egypt Venezuela Sources: Economist Intelligence Unit, International Monetary Fund, World Bank, World Economic Forum, United Nations, A.T. Kearney analysis
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Frontier markets
The Sub-Saharan Africa region is also an increasingly attractive business opportunity Star performers
Economic Community of West African States GDP
Population
$634 billion
344 million
2015 GDP (billions)
2015-2020 GDP growth
Côte d’Ivoire
$31.3
7.3%
Ethiopia
$63.0
7.8%
Kenya
$63.1
6.9%
Nigeria
$493.0
4.6%
Tanzania
$46.2
6.9%
East African Community Economic and Monetary Community of Central Africa GDP
Population
$105 billion
46 million
Southern African Customs Union
GDP
Population
$146 billion
132 million
Southern Africa Development Community
GDP
Population
GDP
Population
$350 billion
62 million
$621 billion
314 million
1. GDP data are 2015 estimates at current prices and market exchange rates Sources: International Monetary Fund, World Trade Organization, A.T. Kearney analysis
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A.T. Kearney is a leading global management consulting firm with offices in more than 40 countries. Since 1926, we have been trusted advisors to the world's foremost organizations. A.T. Kearney is a partner-owned firm, committed to helping clients achieve immediate impact and growing advantage on their most missioncritical issues. For more information, visit www.atkearney.com. Americas
Atlanta Bogotá
Calgary Chicago
Dallas Detroit
Houston Mexico City
New York Palo Alto
San Francisco São Paulo
Toronto Washington, D.C.
Asia Pacific
Bangkok Beijing
Hong Kong Jakarta
Kuala Lumpur Melbourne
Mumbai New Delhi
Seoul Shanghai
Singapore Sydney
Taipei Tokyo
Europe
Amsterdam Berlin Brussels Bucharest
Budapest Copenhagen Düsseldorf Frankfurt
Helsinki Istanbul Kiev Lisbon
Ljubljana London Madrid Milan
Moscow Munich Oslo Paris
Prague Rome Stockholm Stuttgart
Vienna Warsaw Zurich
Middle East and Africa
Abu Dhabi Doha
Dubai Johannesburg
Manama Riyadh
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