ANNUAL REPORT 2006 TINBERGEN RESEARCH INSTITUTE 1.

TI-RESEARCH IN GENERAL

The Tinbergen Institute's research is organised along four themes: I Institutions and Decision Analysis; II Financial and International Markets; III Labour Region and Environment; IV Econometrics. For each theme there are two co-ordinators. Members of the research groups are research fellows, who are selected by the Board of the Institute, based on their publication records. The economic departments where the research fellows are appointed provide the nomination with additional research time. Most research groups organise annual or biannual meetings, where ongoing research is presented. In Table 1.1 an overview is given of the number of research fellows and PhD students for each research group, divided by university. Table 1.1 Research fellows, RFs per ultimo 2006, per university per research group; PhD Students and thesis defences in 2006 per research group Research group

1 Institutions and Decision Processes 2 Financial and International Markets 3 Labour, Region and Environment 4 Econometrics

RFs total (excl. Jr.RFs 33

RFs EUR

RFs UvA

RFs VU

Junior Fellows

PhD Students

PhD thesis defences

12

17

4

4

25

6

22

8

9

5

33

6

36

7

10

19

1

34

7

22

9

8

5

2

18

2

7

1

127

22

5 Miscellaneous Total

113

36

44

33

7

Within these research themes the Tinbergen Institute stimulates fundamental and applied economic research, by providing facilities for research fellows. Budgets are available for inviting scholars from abroad and organising seminars and conferences. Co-ordinators of the themes decide on the spending of the budget. In addition, there is a central budget for larger conferences, for which fellows of the institute can apply. The General Director decides on these applications. All seminars, workshops and conferences have been recorded in the next paragraphs of the annual report. The TI discussion paper series is a medium for pre-publications for the institute’s research fellows and PhD students. The discussion papers published in 2006 are all listed in this annual report. For all other research output of the TI research fellows and PhD students we refer to the annual reports of the respective departments. In Table 1.2 you can find the number of discussion papers per research group in 2006. Table 1.2 Discussion papers, DP per research group issued in 2006 Research group 1 Institutions and Decision Processes 2 Financial and International Markets 3 Labour, Region and Environment 4 Econometrics Total

DP 50 22 34 8 114

In the sections 2.1 – 2.4 the research groups’ results and activities of 2006 have been recorded. All research fellows and PhD students allied to the research groups are mentioned. In chapter 3 TI-activities not related to research groups are reported. Also in this chapter research projects funded by TI or TI projects with external funding are mentioned.

2.1

INSTITUTIONS AND DECISION PROCESSES

Co-ordinators: G. van der Laan, VU, J.H. Sonnemans, UvA, O.H. Swank, EUR. Research Fellows: EUR: H. Bleichrodt, D.P. Broer, H.P. van Dalen, R.A.J. Dur, S. Goyal, J.P.M. Groenewegen, M.C.W. Janssen, J.L. Moraga, S. Stremersch, O.H. Swank, B. Visser, P.P. Wakker UvA: K. Abbink, M.J. Boumans, J.B. Davis, J.K. Goeree, J. Hinloopen, C.H. Hommes, M. Kocher, M.S. Morgan, T.J.S. Offerman, A.M. Onderstal, A.M. Riedl, A.J.H.C. Schram, R. Sloof, J.H. Sonnemans, J. Tuinstra, F.O.O. Wagener, F.A.A.M. van Winden VU: J.R. van den Brink, T.L.C.M. Groot, H.E.D. Houba, G. van der Laan Junior Research Fellows: EUR: B.C.D. Donkers UvA: G. Dari-Mattiacci, C.G.H. Diks, A.R. Soetevent PhD Students: EUR: J. Delfgaauw, as from 01/09/02, S. Dominguez-Martinez, as from 01/09/02, R.P. Faber, as from 01/09/05, M.J. van der Leij, until 21/12/06, J.A. Non, as from 01/11/06, M.C. Non, as from 01/09/02, A. Parakhonyak, as from 01/12/05, J. Sol, as from 01/12/06, P.H. Steffens, as from 01/09/06, S.T. Trautmann, as from 01/09/03, F.M. Vieider, as from 01/09/04, B. Voogt, as from 01/09/06, M.R. Wildenbeest, until 01/09/06. UvA: E.M.F. van den Broek, as from 01/05/04, P.D.E. Dindo, until 01/09/06, J. Gillet, until 01/09/06, P. Heemeijer, until 01/06/06, A. Hopfensitz, until 01/02/06, X. Hu, as from 01/09/05, T. Kiseleva, as from 01/10/06, M.W. Krawczyk, as from 01/03/05, G. van de Kuilen, until 01/09/06, S.M. Moghayer, as from 01/09/06, M.-I. Ochea, as from 01/09/04, V. Panchenko, until 01/09/06. Discussion Papers: 001 004 005 008 010 012 013 014 016 019 022 026 028 029 030

Stefano Ficco, Vladimir Karamychev, and Peran van Reeven, EUR, A Theory of Procedurally Rational Choice: Optimization without Evaluation Hendrik P. van Dalen, EUR, and NIDI, The Hague, Who carries the Burden of Reproductive Health and AIDS Programs? - Evidence from OECD Donor Countries Robert Dur, EUR, Status-Seeking in Violent Subcultures and the Double Dividend of ZeroTolerance Marco van der Leij, EUR; Sanjeev Goyal, EUR, and University of Essex, Strong Ties in a Small World Silvia Dominguez Martinez, Otto H. Swank, EUR, A Simple Model of Self-Assessments Rob van der Noll, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy, and EUR, The Welfare Effects of Discrimination in Insurance Rob van der Noll, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis, and EUR, Competition for a Prize Yannis M. Ioannides, Tufts University, Medford, MA; Adriaan R. Soetevent, UvA, Wages and Employment in a Random Social Network with Arbitrary Degree Distribution Sebastian Buhai, EUR, and Aarhus School of Business; Marco van der Leij, EUR, A Social Network Analysis of Occupational Segregation José Luis Moraga-González, Groningen University; Matthijs R. Wildenbeest, EUR, Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Search Costs Keisuke Sato, University of Tsukuba, Japan; Yoshitsugu Yamamoto, University of Tsukuba, Japan, A Study on Linear Inequality Representation of Social Welfare Functions Hendrik P. van Dalen, EUR, and NIDI; Kène Henkens, NIDI, When the Quality of a Nation triggers Emigration Harold Houba, VU; Quan Wen, Vanderbilt University, Nashville, USA, Perfect Equilibria in a Negotiation Model with Different Time Preferences Cars Hommes, UvA, Interacting Agents in Finance Cars Hommes, UvA; Sebastiano Manzan, University of Leicester, Testing for Nonlinear Structure and Chaos in Economic Time. A Comment.

034 037 039 040 041 043 044 051 054 055 056 067 068

069 070 071 073 074

075 080 081 082 083 087 091 092 095 098 099 100

Jurjen Kamphorst, Leiden University; Gerard van der Laan, VU, Learning in a Local Interaction Hawk-Dove Game Sandra Maximiano, Randolph Sloof, Joep Sonnemans, UvA, Gift Exchange and the Separation of Ownership and Control Maarten Lindeboom, VU; Ana Llena Nozal, VU; Bas van der Klaauw, VU, Disability and Work: the Role of Health Shocks and Childhood Circumstances Maarten C.W. Janssen, EUR, On the Strategic Use of Focal Points in Bargaining Situations Maarten C.W. Janssen, EUR, Microfoundations Cees Diks, Florian Wagener, CeNDEF, UvA, A Weak Bifurcation Theory for Discrete Time Stochastic Dynamical Systems René van den Brink, VU; Robert P. Gilles, Virginia Tech, Virginia, The Outflow Ranking Method for Weighted Directed Graphs Job Swank, Otto Swank, EUR, and DNB; Bauke Visser, EUR, Transparency and Premeetings Silvia Dominguez Martinez, Otto H. Swank, Bauke Visser, EUR, Disciplining and Screening Top Executives Engelbert J. Dockner, University of Vienna, Austria; Florian O.O. Wagener, CeNDEF, UvA, Markov-Perfect Nash Equilibria in Models with a Single Capital Stock René van den Brink, VU, On Hierarchies and Communication Jeroen Hinloopen, Adriaan Soetevent, UvA, Trust and Recidivism; the Partial Success of Corporate Leniency Program in the Laboratory Guiseppe Dari-Mattiacci, ACLE, UvA, and George Mason University, Arlington, Virginia, USA; Hans-Bernd Schäfer, Hamburg University, Hamburg, Germany; and George Mason University, USA, The Core of Pure Economic Loss Guiseppe Dari-Mattiacci, Sander Onderstal, UvA; Francesco Parisi, University of Minnesota, Seeking Rents in the Shadow of Coase Guiseppe Dari-Mattiacci, ACLE, UvA, and George Mason University, Arlington, Virginia, USA, Limiting Limited Liability Guiseppe Dari-Mattiacci, ACLE, UvA, and George Mason University, Arlington, Virginia, USA, Bruno Deffains, Uncertainty of Law and the Legal Process Pietro Dindo, and Jan Tuinstra, UvA, A Behavioral Model for Participation Games with Negative Feedback Marie Goppelsroeder, Graduate Institute of International Studies, Geneva, Switzerland; Maarten Pieter Schinkel, and Jan Tuinstra, UvA, Quantifying the Scope for Efficiency Defense in Merger Control: The Werden-Froeb-Index Maarten C.W. Janssen, Mariëlle C. Non, EUR, Going where the Ad leads you: On High Advertised Prices and Search where to buy William Brock, University of Wisconsin, USA, Cars Hommes, Florian Wagener, UvA, More Hedging Instruments may destablize Markets Michelle Sovinsky Goeree, Claremont McKenna College; Jeroen Hinloopen, UvA, Cooperation in the Classroom: Experimenting with R&D Cooperatives Randolph Sloof, Hessel Oosterbeek, Joep Sonnemans, UvA, On the Importance of Default Breach Remedies Hessel Oosterbeek, Randolph Sloof, Joep Sonnemans, UvA, Rent-seeking versus Productive Activities in a Multi-task Experiment Astrid Hopfensitz, University of Geneva; Frans van Winden, UvA, Dynamic Choice, Independence and Emotions Hendrik P. van Dalen, EUR, When Health Care Insurance Does Not Make A Difference – The Case of Health Care ‘Made in China’ Otto H. Swank, EUR, The Self-Perception Theory vs. a Dynamic Learning Model Harold Houba, VU, Computing Alternating Offers and Water Prices in Bilateral River Basin Management Dennis Dittrich, University of Erfurt; Martin G. Kocher, UvA, Monitoring and Pay: An Experiment on Employee Performance under Endogenous Supervision Wolfgang J. Luhan, University of Innsbruck; Martin G. Kocher, UvA; Matthias Sutter, University of Cologne, Group Polarization in the Team Dictator Game reconsidered Jeroen Hinloopen, UvA; Charles van Marrewijk, EUR, Comparative Advantage, the Rank-size

104 107

Rule, and Zipf's Law Martin G. Kocher, UvA; Peter Martinsson, Martine Visser, Göteborg University, Sweden, Does Stake Size matter for Cooperation and Punishment? Frans W.A. van Poppel, Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute; Hendrik P. van Dalen, EUR; Evelien Walhout, International Institute for Social History, Diffusion of a Social Norm: Tracing the Emergence of the Housewife in the Netherlands, 1812-1922

Thesis defences: Ernesto Reuben París, 16 February, The Effects of Norm Enforcement in Economic Decisions, Prof. F.A.A.M. van Winden Jens Grosser, 24 May, Voting in the Laboratory, Prof. A. Schram Peter Rodenburg, 5 July, The Construction of Instruments for Measuring Unemployment, Prof. M. Morgan Rob van der Noll, 5 October, Essays on Internet and Information Economics, Prof. M.C.W. Janssen Valentijn Panchenko, 11 October, Nonparametric Methods in Economics and Finance: Dependence, Causality and Prediction, Prof. C.H. Hommes Marco van der Leij, 21 December, The Economics of Networks: Theory and Empirics, Prof. S. Goyal, Cosupervisor: Dr M. Fafchamps

Seminars: Tinbergen Institute Amsterdam January 13 Anna Khmelnitskaya, Universiteit Twente and St. Petersburg Institute for Economics and Mathematics, Two Extensions of Young's Axiomatization for the Shapley Value February 3 Ferdinand von Siemens, University of Munich, Envy and Moral Hazard with Multiple Agents 10 Game Theory and Econonomic Theory in honour of Dave Furth, to celebrate his 65th birthday: Stef Tijs, UvT, The first steps with ALEXIA, the Average Lexicographic Value Dan Kovenock, Purdue University, Multi-battle Contests Claus Weddepohl, UvA, The Myth of the Market: on the Beliefs of Economists Arnold Heertje, UvA, Some Remarks on General Equilibrium and Oligopoly Theory? Patrick van Cayseele, KUL, UvA, from O'Neill to Decathlon: the Buying of Rival Outputs 16 Workshop UvA/IO-group B2B Auctions and Procurements Profit Sharing, Cartel Formation and Cartel Stability 17 Double Seminar Shmuel Natzin, Bar-Ilan University, Contest Efforts in Light of Behavioral Considerations (joint with Eyal Baharad) Simon Gächter, University of Nottingham, Measuring Individual-Level Loss Aversion (joint with Andreas Herrmann and Eric J. Johnson) March 31 Quan Wen, Vanderbilt University, A Subsidized Vickrey Auction for Cost Sharing (Coauthor Jesse Schwartz, Kennesaw State University) April 7 Double Seminar Håkan Holm, Lund University, Sweden, Endogenous Communication and Tacit Coordination in Market Entry Games: An Explorative Experimental Study 21- Workshop Measurement in Economics 22 Mary S. Morgan, London School of Economics, UK, History of Measurement in Economics Joel Michell, University of Sydney, Australia, Representational Theory of Measurement Luca Mari, Università Cattaneo, Italy, Measurability

Roger Backhouse, University of Birmingham, UK, Representation in Economics Peter Moffatt, University of East Anglia, UK, Decision, Choice and Game-Theoretic Models Marshall B. Reinsdorf, Bureau of Economic Analysis, USA, Axiomatic Price Index Theory Frank den Butter, VU, National Accounts and Indicators Duo Qin, University of London, UK, Representation in Econometrics Hsiang-Ke Chao, National Tsing Hua University, TaiwanStructure Jan R. Magnus, Tilburg University, Netherlands, Local Sensitivity in Econometrics Thomas Mayer, University of California, USA, The Empirical Significance of Models Theodore M. Porter, University of California, USA, Precision Tomasso Proietti, University of Rome, Italy, Least Squares Regression: Graduation and Filters Glenn W. Harrison, University of Central Florida, USA, Measurement with Experimental Controls May 12- CREED-CeDEx Meeting 14 Michal Krawczyk, It Hurts More to Lose an Unfair Game Swee-Hoon Chuah, Religious Diversity and Economic Interactions in South East Asia Esther Kessler, Individual Behavior in Incentive Contracts – An Experimental Investigation Benedikt Herrmann, Getting Stressed? - Physiological Responses in Situations of Cooperation and Punishment Jacinto Braga, Price Feedback, and the Dynamics of Repeated Valuation: Hypotheses and an Experimental Design Audrey Hu, Amsterdam Second Price Auction- an Experiment Astrid Hopfensitz Eva Poen, Econometric Analysis of Experimental Data on Voluntary Cooperation and Punishment Francis Lagos and Tate Lacomba, He Who Gets to Rule, Will Get the Gold Eva van den Broek, Direct VS Indirect Reputation Joris Gillet, Group VS Individual Decision Making Ernesto Reuben, The Curse of Additional Resources Matthijs van Veelen Aljaz Ule Michail Drouvelis 19 Erik Hoelzl, University of Vienna, Social Comparison and Risk-Seeking in Economic Decisions 24 Robert P. Gilles, Virginia Tech, USA, Stability, Specialization and Social Recognition: A Smithian Theory of Economic Development (joint with Emiliya Lazarova and Pieter H.M. Ruys) June 16 Martin Sefton, University of Nottingham, Determinants of Aggressive Bidding in the "Buying a Company" Task (with Andy Lockett, Elke Renner and Deniz Ucbasaran) September 28 Florian Englmaier, Harvard Business School, A Strategic Rationale for Having Overconfident Managers October 5 Thierry Post, EUR, Deal or No Deal? Decision Making Under Risk in a Large-Payoff Game Show Jeroen van de Ven, UvA, A Public Dilemma: Cooperation with Large Stakes and a Large Audience 19 Bruna Biais, Université Toulouse 1, Dynamic Security Design: Convergence to Continuous Time and Asset Pricing Implications (co-authors: Thomas Mariotti, Guillaume Plantin & Jean-Charles Rochet) 23 Tinbergen Institute Seminar Yukihiko Funaki, Waseda University, Tokyo, Japan, Sequentially stable coalition structures Valeri Vasil'ev, Sobolev Institute of Mathematics, Novosibirsk, Russia, On m-stability of the cores of balanced TU-games

Robert Owen, University of Nantes, France, Irreversibility, sunk costs, news and evolutionary economic methodology Norma Olaizola, University of the Basque Country, Bilbao, Spain, A dynamic approach to international environmental agreements between heterogeneous countries Sjaak Hurkens, Autonomous University of Barcelona, Spain, Dynamic matching and bargaining: the role of deadlines 27- Workshop on Social Institutions and Behavior 28 Hannelore Brandt, Wirtschaftsuniversität Wien, Via Freedom to Coercion: The Emergence of Altruistic Punishment Matthijs van Veelen, UvA, Why Kin and Group Selection Models May Not Be Enough to Explain Human Other-Regarding Behaviour Aljaz Ule, UvA, Avoidance And Cooperation among Strangers Mathias Spichtig, UvA, Optional Game Play in the Iterated Prisoner’s Dilemma Toshio Yamagishi, Hokkaido University, Culture and Institutions Edward Hagen, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Game Theory and Human Evolution: A Critique Of Some Recent Interpretations of Experimental Games Laurens Gomes, UvA, Group observation and Group Competition in Public Goods Games Daniel Houser, George Mason University, Punish in Public Arthur Schram, UvA, Dynamics of Indirect Punishment in the Lab Herbert Gintis, University of Massachusetts, Principles for a Unified Behavioral Science November 16 Stefan Napel, Hamburg University, The European Commission – Appointment, Preferences, and Institutional Relations (joint with Mika Widgren) 30 Giovanni Dosi, Scuola Superiore Sant'Anna, Pisa, Statistical Regularities in the Evolution of Industries. A Guide through some Evidence and Challenges for the Theory December 7 Giovanna Devetag, University of Perugia, Classic Coordination Failures Revisited: The Effects of Deviation Costs and Loss Aversion 15 Workshop Experts in Observation Ariane Dupont (INRETS) and Olav Bjerkholt, University of Oslo, Ragnar Frisch's Conception of Econometrics Anno 1933 Marcel Boumans, UvA, Modeling a Paradox Joshua Cohen, Tuft University/Erasmus Rotterdam, Where Clinical Science, Health Economics, and Bioethics Meet Rafael Ziegler, Centre Mark Bloch Berlin, The Politics of Operationalisation - a Discussion Based on the Measurement Of Sustainability Carl Wennerlind, Columbia University, New York, Public Credit and the Public Sphere: How Opinion Shaped the Financial Revolution Margaret Schabas, University of British Columbia, Vancouver/LSE, London, Temporal Dimensions in Hume's Monetary Theory

Tinbergen Institute Rotterdam January 13 Anthony Heyes, Royal Holloway, University of London, Whistleblowers Jan Potters, CentER, Tilburg University, Cooperation under Strategic Substitutability and Complementarity: Experimental Evidence February 10 Marc Ivaldi, EHESS and IDEI, Toulouse, The Market of Scientific Journals Jan van Ours, CentER, Tilburg University, Hours of Work and Gender Identity: Does Part-time Work Make the Family Happier? March 10 Peter Sorensen, University of Copenhagen, Aggregation of Information and Beliefs in Prediction Markets April 6 Roberto Burguet, IAE, Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona, License Allocation Maarten Janssen, EUR, Price Matching and Price Beating Policies with Consumer Search May 12 Herman Vollebergh, EUR, Technology Adoption Subsidies: An Economic Experiment with Students and Managers June 9 Oriana Bandiera, LSE, and Benoît Curtzen, EUR, How to make Friends and influence them: Evidence on Network Formation and Peer Effects August 23 Paul Schure, University of Victoria, Why the Powerful drag their Feet September 29 Vianney Dequiedt, Grenoble, Mechanism Design with Private Communication Bauke Visser, EUR, Mechanism Design with Private Communication Rob van der Noll, EUR, The Welfare Effects of Discrimination in Insurance October 2 Ernst Maug, Universität Mannheim, Insider Trading Legislation and Acquisition Announcements November 3 Shelby Gerking, University of Central Florida. and Vladimir Karamychev, EUR, Microeconomics 17 Luís Santos Pinto, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Forecasts of Relative Performance in Tournaments: Evidence from the Field Benoît Crutzen, EUR, Difference in the Workplace? December 15 Matthijs Wildenbeest, Vertical Product Differentiation and Search Guests: Amsterdam: − Prof. Dr. Quan Wen, Vanderbilt University, from February 27 until April 28 − Drs. Willemien Kets, Tilburg University

2.2

FINANCIAL AND INTERNATIONAL MARKETS

Co-ordinators: F. de Jong, UvA, A. Lucas, VU, J.-M. Viaene, EUR. Research Fellows: EUR: L.J.H. Bettendorf, J.F. Francois, H.P.G. Pennings, G.T. Post, J.T.J. Smit, J. Spronk, J.-M. Viaene, C.G. de Vries UvA: R.M.W.J. Beetsma, A.W.A. Boot, J.J.A.G. Driessen, M.J. Ellman, K. Gërxhani, F. de Jong, F.J.G.M. Klaassen, E.C. Perotti, A. Schabert VU: R. Calcagno, C.T.M. Elbers, J.W. Gunning, M.A. Keyzer, A. Lucas PhD Students: EUR: A.M. Babus, until 01/11/06, G. Baltussen, as from 01/09/04, E.H.G. Bekkers, as from 01/09/03, S. van Bekkum, as from 01/09/06, G.A. Garita, as from 01/08/06, F. Lamp, as from 01/06/06, A. Lizyayev, as from 01/09/05, R. Lord, until 01/09/06, M.I.S.H. Munandar, until 01/12/06, P.J.P.M. Versijp, as from 01/02/03, A.S.K. Wong, as from 01/09/03, C. Zhou, as from 01/09/04. UvA: I.A.M. Bos, as from 01/09/04, T.R. Daniëls, as from 01/09/02, E.H.B. Feijen, until 01/02/06, F. Heukelom, as from 01/03/04, R. Huang, as from 01/12/04, D.S. Karypbaeva, until 01/09/06, T.-C. Lin, as from 01/09/04, M. Poplawski Ribeiro, as from 01/09/02, D.T. Rusinova, until 01/09/06, R.E. Vlahu, as from 01/09/04, M.W. Vorage, as from 01/09/06. VU: R. Ding, as from 1/10/03, W. Janssens, until 21/01/06, M.J.E. Kabki-van Heel, until 27/07/06, S.J.J. Konijn, as from 01/09/03, C.K.M. Lee, as of 01/09/06, A.V.P.B. Monteiro, until 01/10/06, L. Pan, as from 01/09/05, R.L. Rietveld, as from 01/09/05, M. van der Wel, as from 01/09/04, E.R. de Wit, until 01/07/06. Discussion papers: 002 006 007 009 011 015 023 024 025 035 045 048 053 062 063 065

Stijn Claessens, UvA, and World Bank; Erik Feijen, UvA, Does Campaign Finance imply Political Favors? Joseph Francois, EUR; Henrik Horn, IIES, Stockholm, Antitrust in Open Economies Joseph Francois, EUR; Julia Woerz, WIIW, Vienna, Rags in the High Rent District: the Evolution of Quota Rents in Textiles and Clothing Thierry Post, Guido Baltussen, Martijn van den Assem, EUR, Deal or No Deal? Decisionmaking under Risk in a Large-payoff Game Show Arnoud W.A. Boot, UvA; Radhakrishnan Gopaian; Anjan V. Thakor, Market Liquidity, Investor Participation and Managerial Autonomy: Why do Firms go Private? Arnoud W.A. Boot, UvA; Matej Marinc, University of Ljubljana, Competition and Entry in Banking: Implications for Stability and Capital Regulation Siem Jan Koopman, Roman Kräussl, André Lucas, André Monteiro, VU, Credit Cycles and Macro Fundamentals André Monteiro, VU; Georgi V. Smirnov, University of Porto; André Lucas, VU, Nonparametric Estimation for Non-Homogeneous Semi-Markov Processes: An Application to Credit Risk Andreas Schabert, UvA, Central Bank Instruments, Fiscal Policy Regimes, and the Requirements for Equilibrium Determinacy Robert P. Gilles, VU; Emiliya Lazarova, Pieter H.M. Ruys, Tilburg University, On Socioeconomic Roles and Specialization Andreas Schabert, Sweder van Wijnbergen, UvA, Debt, Deficits, and Destabilizing Monetary Policy in Open Economies Franc J.G.M. Klaasen, UvA; Jan R. Magnus, Tilburg University, Are Economic Agents Successful Optimizers? An Analysis through Service Strategy in Tennis Han Smit, Ward A. van den Berg, EUR, Private Equity Waves Jan Frederik Slijkerman, EUR, Insurance Sector Risk Marije Schouwstra, Michael Ellman, UvA, A New Explanatory Model for Policy Analysis and Evaluation Roger Lord, EUR, and Rabobank International; Christian Kahl, University of Wuppertal, and ABNAMRO, London, Why the Rotation Count Algorithm works

066 085 086 093 094 112

Roger Lord, EUR, and Rabobank International; Christian Kahl, University of Wuppertal, and ABN AMRO, London, Optimal Fourier Inversion in Semi-analytical Option Pricing Thomas Mikosch, University of Copenhagen; Casper G. de Vries, EUR, Tail Probabilities for Regression Estimators Phornchanok Cumperayot, Chulalongkorn University; Casper G. de Vries, EUR, Large Swings in Currencies driven by Fundamentals Ana Babus, EUR, The Formation of Financial Networks Konrad Banachewicz, Aad van der Vaart, André Lucas, VU, Modeling Portfolio Defaults using Hidden Markov Models with Covariates Franc Klaassen, Henk Jager, UvA, Model-free Measurement of Exchange Market Pressure

Thesis defences: B. Bierut, 16 February, Essays on the Making and Implementation of Monetary Policy Decisions, Prof. C.G. de Vries, and Dr. J.M. Berk R. Sparrow, 16 March, Health, Education and Economic Crisis: Protecting the Poor in Indonesia, Prof. J.W. Gunning, and Dr. M.P. Pradhan E.H.B. Feijen, 22 June, The Influence of Powerful Firms of Financial Markets, Prof. E.C.Perotti, and C.A.M.F. Claessens Otto van Hemert, 4 July, Dynamic Investor Decisions, Dr. F.C.J.M. de Jong Koen G. Berden, 30 November, On Technology, Uncertainty, and Economic Growth, Profs. J.G.M. van Marrewijk, and J.F. Francois Haris Munandar, 1 December, Essays on Economic Integration, Prof. J.-M. Viaene

Seminars: Tinbergen Institute Amsterdam March 7 Anna Pavlova, London Business School, Wealth Transfers and Portfolio Constraints 20 Andrei Shleifer, Harvard University, Persuasion in Finance 21 Ines Chaieb, Faculty of Management, McGill University, International Asset Pricing under Segmentation and PPP Deviations 29 Gilles Chemla, Imperial College, A Simple Model of Investment and Capital Structure Dynamics with Corporate Taxes and Bankruptcy Costs April 5 Asani Sarkar, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Liquidity Spillovers and CrossAutocorrelations (joint with Tarun Chordia and Avanidhar Subrahmanyam) 11 Irem Tuna, Wharton, The Book-to-Price Effect in Stock Returns: Accounting for Leverage 18 Frederic Palomino, HEC, Project Financing and the Provision of Insurance 25 Charles Jones, Graduate School of Business, Columbia University, Which Shorts are Informed? May 2 Tim Simin, PS, Can Growth Options Explain the Trend in Idiosyncratic Risk? 16 Robert Gibbons, MIT, Contracting for Control 17 Development Economics Seminar Emmanuel Skoufias, World Bank, Washington DC, An Evaluation of the Performance of Regression Discontinuity Design on PROGRESA (with Hielke Buddelmeyer) Sudarno Sumarto, The SMERU Research Institute, Jakarta, Economic Growth and Poverty Reduction in Indonesia: The Effects of Location and Sectoral Components of Growth Arjun Bedi, Institute of Social Studies, The Hague, Violence and Dowry in South India (with Sharada Srinivasan) Menno Pradhan, World Bank, Jakarta, Local Conflict in Indonesia: Measuring Incidence and Identifying Patterns (with Patrick Barron and Kai Kaiser) 23 Jeff Pontiff, Boston College, Investment Taxation and Portfolio Performance 30 Francesca Cornelli, London Business School, Ex Ante Effects of Ex Post Managerial Ownership

June 13 Mark Flannery, University of Florida, Major Investments, Firm Financing Decisions, and Long-run Performance 27 Ron Kaniel, Duke 29 Mara Faccio, Vanderbilt University, Sudden Deaths: Taking Stock of Political Connections August 29 Darrel Duffie, Stanford University, Frailty Correlated Default September 5 David Thesmar, HEC, How do Firms React to Balance Sheet Shocks? Evidence from Land Holdings 12 Daniel Paravisimi, Columbia University, Local Bank Financial Constraints and Firm Access to External Finance 26 Silvia Rossetto, Warwick University, Corporate Control and Multiple Large Shareholders 27 Mark Roe, Harvard University, Legal Origins and Modern Stock Markets 28 Conference ‘Homeownership, Commuting and Labour Mobility’ Andrew Oswald, The Thesis and Some Macro-economic Evidence Danish team: Job mobility and homeownership: The experiences in Europe revisited? Thomas de Graaff, Explanations from housing institutions Peter Nijkamp (joint work with Jan Rouwendal), Can it be explained by commuting? Wouter Vermeulen (joint work with Jos van Ommeren), Compensation of regional unemployment in housing markets Anthony Murphy, House prices and inter-regional migration in the UK British team and Spanish team, Job satisfaction and two-earners households Aico van Vuuren, The relationship between expectations of labor market status, homeownership and the duration of unemployment October 3 Per Stromberg, SIFR, The Financial Structure of Private Equity Funds 10 Masoka Ueda, University of Wisconsin, Knowing Who You are Matters: A Theory of Young Firms versus Mature Firms 11 Andrew Ang, Columbia University, The Term Structure of Real Rates and Expected Inflation 17 Ulf Axelson, Stockholm School of Economics 30 Antoinette Schoar, MIT, The Effect of Judicial Bias in Chapter 11 Reorganization November 1 Thierry Foucault, HEC, Stock Price Informativeness, Cross-Listings and Investment Decisions 7 Michael Brennan, UCLA, Asset Pricing and Mispricing 14 Paolo Volpin, LBS, Ownership Structure, Banks, and Private Benefits of Control 16 Hans-Joachim Voth, MIT, Stock Price Volatility and Political Uncertainty: Evidence from the Interwar Period 28 Oren Sussman, Oxford, Sovereign Debt without Default Penalties 29 Evan Gatev, Boston College, Liquidity Risk and Limited Arbitrage: Are Taxpayers Helping Hedge Funds Get Rich? 30 Fabio Braggion, Tilburg, Credit Market Constraints and Financial Networks in Late Victorian Britain December 5 Lucy White, HEC Lausanne, Level Playing Fields in International Financial Regulation 12 Serdar Dinc, Michigan, The Decision to Privatize: Finance, Politics, and Patronage

Tinbergen Institute Rotterdam January 30 Marie Hoerova, Cornell University, Run-prone Banking and Markets February 8 Inci Gumus, UCLA, Debt Denomination and Default Risk in Emerging Markets 13 Vadym Volosovych, University of Houston, Financial Market Integration, Risk Sharing, and

14 23

Institutions: Theory and Evidence Andrea Ferrero, New York University, Demographic Trends, Fiscal Policy and Trade Deficits Demmou Lilas, University Paris VIII, and Cepremap-ENS, Sector Specialisation, Nonhomothetic Demand and Welfare Michele Lenza, ECARES, University of Brussels, ECB, The Feldstein-Horioka Fact

March 16 Saltuk Ozerturk, Southern Methodist University, CORE, Hedge Markets for Executives and Corporate Agency Maurizio Zanardi, Tilburg University, The Global Chilling Effects of Antidumping Proliferation May 11 Ivan Pastine, UCD, Endogenous Devaluations and Speculative Attacks under Standard Assumptions Andreas Schabert, UvA, Debt, Deficits, and Destabilizing Monetary Policy in Open Economies June 22 Julia Darby, University of Strathclyde, Do Intergovernmental Grants induce Fiscal Discipline? Evidence from 14 OECD Countries Franc Klaassen, UvA, Trade Spill-overs of Fiscal Policy in the European Union: A Panel Analysis November 30 Frank van Tongeren, OECD, Paris, Using Gravity to move Armington – Empirical Approach to Small Initial Trade Share Problems in General Equilibrium Guests: Amsterdam: − Elisa Pagani, Bicocca University, Milan, Italy, from February 15 until July 31 − Dr. Siddhartha Sarkar, Dinhata College, India, from May 3 until June 5 Rotterdam: − Mario Larch, University of Innsbruck, Austria, Jan 1 – Dec 1 − Shmuel Nitzan, Bar Ilan University, Israel, February 14-17

2.3

LABOUR, REGION AND ENVIRONMENT

Co-ordinators: J.C.J.M. van den Bergh, VU, E.J.S. Plug, UvA Research Fellows: EUR: E. Dijkgraaf, E.K.A. van Doorslaer, R.A. de Mooij, T. van Ourti, J.H.P. Paelinck, Honorary Fellow, A.R. Thurik, H.R.J. Vollebergh UvA: A. Ferrer-i-Carbonell, J. Hartog, W.J. den Haan, B. Jacobs, E. Leuven, H. Oosterbeek, E.J.S. Plug, B.M.S. van Praag, Honorary Fellow, C.M. van Praag, C.N. Teulings VU: J.H. Abbring, E.J. Bartelsman, G.J. van den Berg, J.C.J.M. van den Bergh, H.G. Bloemen, F.A.G. den Butter, P.A. Gautier, H.L.F. de Groot, S. Hochguertel, B. van der Klaauw, M. Lindeboom, N.P. Lundborg, P. Nijkamp, R.H. Oostendorp, F.R.M. Portrait, P. Rietveld, J. Rouwendal, E.T. Verhoef, C. Withagen Junior Research Fellows: EUR: P.A. van Reeven PhD Students: EUR: E. Erdogan Ciftci, as from 01/09/06, J.L.W. van Kippersluis, as from 01/10/06, S.M.W. Phlippen, as from 01/09/03. UvA: A. Booij, as from 01/04/04, M. de Haan, as from 01/09/04, A.M. IJsselstein, as from 15/01/05, J. Huang, as from 01/09/04, C.P.B.J. van Klaveren, until 01/09/06, D.E. Kusmerski Bilard, until 01/09/06, S. Maximiano, until 01/09/06, J. van der Sluis, until 01/09/06, S. Worku, until 01/04/06. VU: J.A. Bolhaar, as from 01/09/04; V. Daniel, as from 01/05/04, G. Debrezion Andom, until 01/07/06, E. Demirel, as from 01/01/06, J.A. Garcia Gallego, as from 01/04/06, S. Gupta, as from 01/09/06, E. Gutierrez Puigarnau, as from 01/02/06, A.N. Halsema, as from 01/09/04, O.E. Jonkeren, as from 15/01/05, M.I. Lopez Yurda, as from 01/01/04, A.Llena Nozal, until 01/09/06, J.C.M. MelendezHidalgo, as from 01/09/02, L.C. Midgley, as from 01/01/06, F.I. Pak, as from 01/08/06, M.J. Smit, as from 01/03/06, Y.Y. Tseng, until 01/10/06, W. Vermeulen, as from 01/10/03, F. de Vor, as from 01/04/06, S.V. Vujic, until 01/09/06, R.P. Wolthoff, as from 01/09/04, T. Zavadil, as from 01/09/04, R. Zhang, until 09/12/06. Discussion Papers 003 017 018

020

021 031 032 033

036

E. Dijkgraaf, EUR; R.H.J.M. Gradus, EUR, Ministry of Social Affairs, The Hague, and VU, Deregulating Sunday Shop Policies Michiel Evers, EUR; Ruud A. de Mooij, CPB, The Hague, and EUR; Daniel J. van Vuuren, CPB, The Hague, and EUR, What explains the Variation in Estimates of Labour Supply Elasticities? Philip de Jong, Wilms & Goudriaan Public Economics BV, and UvA; Maarten Lindeboom, VU, IZA, HEB, and Netspar; Bas van der Klaauw, VU, SCHOLAR, IFAU, IZA, and CEPR, Screening Disability Insurance Applications Roberto Patuelli, VU; Aura Reggiani, University of Bologna, Italy; Peter Nijkamp, VU; Uwe Blien, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt und Berufsforschung, IAB, Nuremberg, New Neural Network Methods for Forecasting Regional Employment: An Analysis of German Labour Markets Rob Euwals, CPB, The Hague, IZA, CEPR; Daniel J. van Vuuren, CPB, and VU; Ronald P. Wolthoff, VU, Early Retirement Behaviour in the Netherlands: Evidence from a Policy Reform Ghebreegziabiher Debrezion, Eric Pels, Piet Rietveld, VU, The Impact of Rail Transport on Real Estate Prices: An Empirical Analysis of the Dutch Housing Market Pieter A. Gautier, Ronald P. Wolthoff, VU, Simultaneous Search with Heterogeneous Firms and Ex Post Competition Teresa Bago d'Uva, University of York; Eddy van Doorslaer, EUR, and Netspar; Maarten Lindeboom, VU, HEB, IZA, and Netspar; Owen O'Donnell, University of Macedonia, and Netspar; Somnath Chatterji, World Health Organization, Does Reporting Heterogeneity bias The Measurement of Health Disparities? Barry Ubbels, Erik Verhoef, VU, Governmental Competition in Road Charging and Capacity Choice

039 042

047

049

050

052

057 059 060 061 064

072 077 084 088 089 096

097 102 103

106 108

109 110

Maarten Lindeboom, VU; Ana Llena Nozal, VU; Bas van der Klaauw, VU, Disability and Work: the Role of Health Shocks and Childhood Circumstances Chiara M. Travisi, DIG, Politecnico di Milano, and Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei; Roberto Camagni, DIG, Politecnico di Milano, Milano, Italy; Peter Nijkamp, VU, The Netherlands, Analysis of Environmental Costs of Mobility due to Urban Sprawl - A Modelling Study on Italian Cities Bernard M.S. van Praag, UvA, CESifo, IZA, & SCHOLAR; Ada Ferrer-i-Carbonell, UvA, SCHOLAR, AIAS Amsterdam Institute of Labour Studies, An Almost Integration-free Approach to Ordered Response Models Roberto Patuelli, VU; Daniel A. Griffith, Michael Tiefelsdorf, University of Texas at Dallas; Peter Nijkamp, VU, The Use of Spatial Filtering Techniques: The Spatial and Space-time Structure of German Unemployment Data Simonetta Longhi, University of Essex; Peter Nijkamp, VU; Jacques Poot, University of Waikato, The Fallacy of “Job Robbing”: A Meta-Analysis of Estimates of the Effect of Immigration on Employment Chris van Klaveren, Bernard M.S. van Praag, Henriëtte Maassen van den Brink, UvA, A Collective Household Model of Time Allocation - A Comparison of Native Dutch and Immigrant Households in The Netherlands Jaap H. Abbring, VU, The Event-History Approach to Program Evaluation Jaap H. Abbring, Gerard J. van den Berg, VU, The Unobserved Heterogeneity Distribution in Duration Analysis Mark J. Koetse, Henri L.F. de Groot, VU; Raymond J.G.M. Florax, Purdue University, and VU, The Impact of Uncertainty on Investment: A Meta-Analysis Mark J. Koetse, VU; Henri L.F. de Groot, VU; Raymond J.G.M. Florax, Purdue University, and VU, Capital-Energy Substitution and Shifts in Factor Demand: A Meta-Analysis Laura de Dominicis, VU, and Universita' degli di Tor Vergata, Rome, Italy; Henri L.F. de Groot, VU; Raymond J.G.M. Florax, Purdue University, and VU, Growth and Inequality: A MetaAnalysis Gert-Jan M. Linders, Henri L.F. de Groot, VU, Estimation of the Gravity Equation in the Presence of Zero Flows Gerard J. van den Berg, VU; Aico van Vuuren, VU, The Effect of Search Frictions on Wages Antonio Dias da Silva, Bas van der Klaauw, VU, Wage Dynamics and Promotions inside and between Firms Pieter Gautier, Bas van der Klaauw, VU, Grow rich while you sleep: Selection in Experiments with Voluntary Participation Simon C. Parker, Durham University; Mirjam C. van Praag, UvA, The Entrepreneur's Mode of Entry: Business Takeover or New Venture start? Maria Francesca Cracolici, University of Palermo, Italy; Peter Nijkamp, VU, Efficiency and Productivity of Italian Tourist Destinations: A Quantitative Estimation based on Data Envelopment Analysis and the Malmquist Method Francesca Cracolici, University of Palermo, Italy; Piet Rietveld, Peter Nijkamp, VU, Assessment of Tourist Competitiveness by analysing Destination Efficiency Siv Gustafsson, Seble Y. Worku, UvA, Marriage Markets and Single Motherhood in South Africa Peter van der Zwan, CASBEC, Erasmus School of Economics, EUR, EIM Zoetermeer; Roy Thurik, CASBEC, Erasmus School of Economics, EUR, EIM Zoetermeer, Max Planck Institute of Economics, and VU; Isabel Grilo, DG Enterprise, European Commission, GREMARS, Université de Lille 3, and CORE, Université Cath. de Louvain, The Entrepreneurial Ladder and its Determinants Martijn Brons, Peter Nijkamp, Eric Pels, Piet Rietveld, VU, A Meta-analysis of the Price Elasticity of Gasoline Demand. A System of Equations Approach Tom Van Ourti, Eddy Van Doorslaer, Xander Koolman, EUR, The Effect of Growth and Inequality in Incomes on Health Inequality: Theory and Empirical Evidence from the European Panel Maarten Lindeboom, Ana Llena Nozal, Bas van der Klaauw, VU, Parental Education and Child Health: Evidence from a Schooling Reform Jaap H. Abbring, VU; Jeffrey R. Campbell, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, and NBER, Last-

113

In First-Out Oligopoly Dynamics Moshe Givoni, VU; Piet Rietveld, VU, Choice of Aircraft Size - Explanations and Implications

Thesis defences: Gert-Jan Linders, 14 February, Intangible Barriers to Trade: The Impact of Institutions, Culture, and Distance on Patterns of Trade, Profs. P. Nijkamp, and P. Rietveld Mark Koetse, 14 March, Determinants of Investment Behaviour: Methods and Applications of MetaAnalysis, Prof. P. Nijkamp, and Dr. R.J.G.M. Florax Gerrit Müller, 13 April, On the Role of Personality Traits and Social Skills in Adult Economic Attainment, Prof. C.N. Teulings Martijn Brons, 18 May, Meta-analytical Studies in Transport Economics, Profs. P. Nijkamp, and P. Rietveld Marloes De Graaf-Zijl, 20 June, Economic and Social Consequences of Temporary Employment, Profs. G.J. van den Berg, and J. Hartog Ghebreegziabiher Debrezion Andom, 28 November, Railway Impacts on Real Estate Prices, Prof. P. Rietveld, and Dr. E. Pels Carla, Angélica da Silva Pinto de Sá, 19 December, Higher Education Choice In the Netherlands: The Economics of where to go, Profs. R.J.G.M. Florax, and P. Rietveld

Seminars: Tinbergen Institute Amsterdam February 15 Workshop: The Gravity Model and International Trade: Recent Developments in Methods and Applications Johannes Bröcker, University of Kiel, Spatial Effects of European Transport Initiatives: An Update Franc Klaassen, UvA, and Maurice Bun, UvA, The Euro Effect on Trade Iis Not as Large as Commonly thought Steven Brakman, RUG and UU, Harry Garretsen, UU and Charles van Marrewijk, EUR, Cross-Border Mergers and Acquisitions: On Revealed Comparative Advantage and Merger Waves Henk Kox, CPB and Arjan Lejour, CPB, Regulatory Heterogeneity as Obstacle for International Services Trade March 7 Amitabh Chandra, Harvard Kennedy School, Productivity Spillovers: Evidence from Treatments for Heart Attacks 14 Jim Albrecht, Susan Vroman, Georgetown University, Opportunistic Matching in the Housing Market 15 Workshop: Meta-analysis in Economics Recent Developments in Methods and Applications Tom Stanley, Hendrix College, Meta-Regression Analysis as the Socio-Economics of Economic Research Tammo Bijmolt, RUG, What Really Drives Innovation Adoption by Consumers? A MetaAnalysis on the Antecedents of Intention versus Behavior (joint with Joep Arts, VU and Ruud Frambach, VU) Sjef Ederveen (CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis) Explaining the Variation in Empirical Estimates of Tax Elasticities of Foreign Direct Investment (joint with Ruud de Mooij (EUR) 21 Wilbert van der Klaauw ,University of North Carolina, Social Security and the Retirement and Savings Behavior of Low Income Households (joint with Ken Wolpin) 28 Kjell Salvanes, Bergen, Norwegian School of Economics, From the Cradle to the Labor Market: The Effect of Birth Weight on Adult Outcomes (joint with Sandra Black and Paul Devereux) April

4 11 18 24 25

Monica Costa Dias ,London, IFS, Evaluating Dynamic Treatment: The Swedish Active Labour Market Programmes Imran Rasul ,London, UCL, Social Connections and Incentives in the Workplace: Evidence from Personnel Data (joint with Oriana Bandiera and Iwan Barankay) Joel Shapiro, Barcelona, Pompeu Fabra, Downsizing and Job Insecurity Nicole Adler, School of Business Administration, Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Knowledge Flows and the Modeling of the Multi-national Enterprise Jakob Svensson, Institute for International Economic Studies, Stockholm University, Improving Schooling by Combating Corruption: Evidence from a Newspaper Campaign in Uganda

May 2 Philipp Kircher, Department of Economics, University of Bonn, Simultaneous Directed Search with Recall 9 Claudio Michelacci, Madrid, Cemfi, The Effects of Labor Market Conditions on Working Time: A look at the US-EU Experience 16 Robert Gibbons, MIT, Contracting for Control 23 Geert Ridder, University of Southern California, Complementarity and Aggregate Implications of Assortive Matching: A Nonparametric Analysis 29- International Workshop “Creativity and Smart Policy as Signposts for Innovative 30 Development” Bob Stimson, UQ Social Research Center, The University of Queensland, Modeling Regional Endogenous Growth: An Application to the Non- Metropolitan Regions of Australia Sandy Dall’Erba, The European Regional Growth Process Revisited: Increasing Returns and Spatial Dynamic Setting Andreas Cornett, University of Southern Denmark, Aims and Strategies in Regional Innovation and Growth Policy – A Danish Perspective Don Guo, Spatial Effects in China’s Regional Income Convergence Process Bart van Ark, University of Groningen and The Conference Board, The Structure of Business R and D: Recent Trends and Measurement Implications Zoltan Acs, Entrepreneurial Capitalism in "Capitalist Development” Tony Sorensen, Creativity in Rural Development: an Australian Response to Florida (or a View from the Fringe) John Martin, Regional Innovation and Entrepreneurship: Lessons from the Community Banks Scot Baum, The Implications of Creative Industries for Regional Outcomes Michael Fritsch, Are the Creatives Cause or Symptom of Economic Growth? Jan Kowalski, EU-Periphery of the Periphery: Innovative Development in the Poorest Regions in Eastern Poland on the Belarus Border Juan Cuadrado and Antonio Tabuenca, Entrepeneurs and Creativity as a Competitive Factor Bill Pritchard, Inserting Northern Sydney's IT Cluster within the 2005 Metropolitan Strategy: Policies for Creativity and Innovation in the Context of Global City Discourse Frank Vanclay, Artisanality and Culture in Innovative Regional Agrifood Development: Lessons from the Tasmanian Artisanal Food Industry David Audretsch, Entrepreneurship as a Conduit for University Spillovers Heli Koski, Innovative Software Business Strategies: Evidence from Finnish Firms Amit Batabya, Rochester Institute of Technology, Average Patent Pendency and Examination Errors: A Queuing Theoretic Analysis Adam Rose, Department of Geography, The Pennsylvania State University, Innovation, Smart Growth, and Disaster-Resilient Communities Miruna Mazurencu, Assessing the Value of E-Business in Emerging Markets: Spotlight on Romania Roger Stough, The Role of Entrepreneurship Capital in the Economies of Metropolitan America 30 Kathryn Graddy, Oxford University, Failure to Meet the Reserve Price: The Impact on Returns to Art

June 6 Aico van Vuuren, VU, The Effect of the Theo van Gogh Murder on House Prices in Amsterdam 13 Rob Sauer, University of Southampton, A Computationally Practical Simulation Estimation Algorithm for Dynamic Panel Data Models: Implications for Female Labor Supply (joint with Michael Keane) 20 Lunch seminar: Kenneth Button, George Mason University, Ownership and Regulatory Issues in Providing Air Navigation Services: Some Empirical Evidence Eric Pels, VU, Low-Cost Airlines and Airport Competition 20 Michael Kremer, Harvard University, Contracting for Health: Evidence from Cambodia 23- Workshop Entrepreneurship and Human Capital 24 David Audretsch, Max Planck Institute (Germany) and Indiana University (USA), Human Capital and University Entrepreneurship (with Taylor Aldridge, Max Planck Institute, Jena) George Baker, Harvard Business School (Harvard, USA), Specific and General Human Capital and Entrepreneurship Jean Bonnet, University of Caen (France), Inferring the Unobserved Human Capital of Entrepreneurs (with Nicolas Le Pape and Regis Renault) Robert Fairlie, University of California, Santa Cruz (USA), Families, Human Capital and Small Business (with Alicia Robb) Miri Lerner, Tel Aviv University (Israel), The Role of Initial and Acquired Human Capital in the Long term Survival and Performance of Immigrants Business Owners (with Susanna Khavul) Simon Parker, Durham Business School (UK), The Entrepreneur’s Entry Strategy (with Mirjam van Praag) Justin Van Der Sluis, University of Amsterdam (The Netherlands), Entrepreneurship, Intelligence and Human Capital (with Mirjam van Praag) Arjen van Witteloostuijn, Star Numan Institute, University of Groningen (The Netherlands), Comparing the Returns to Education for Entrepreneurs and Employees (with Justin van der Sluis and Mirjam van Praag) Mike Wright, Nottingham University Business School (UK), Opportunity Identification and Pursuit: does an entrepreneur’s human capital matter? (with Uchasaran and Westhead) Simone Baldassarri, DG Enterprise and Industry (European Commission), EC Policy Guidelines and Recommendations on Entrepreneurship and Human Capital July 11 John List, University of Chicago and NBER, What Do Laboratory Experiments Tell Us About the Real World? September 12 Paul Makdissi, Sherbrooke University, Socially-Improving Tax Reforms 19 Michael Burda, Humboldt Universität zu Berlin and CEPR, Blue Laws 26 Jeremy Lise, UCL, London, On-the-Job Search and Precautionary Savings: Theory and Empirics of Earnings and Wealth Inequality 28 Conference ‘Homeownership, Commuting and Labour Mobility’ Andrew Oswald, The Thesis and Some Macro-economic Evidence Danish team: Job mobility and homeownership: The experiences in Europe revisited? Thomas de Graaff, Explanations from housing institutions Peter Nijkamp (joint work with Jan Rouwendal), Can it be explained by commuting? Wouter Vermeulen (joint work with Jos van Ommeren), Compensation of regional unemployment in housing markets Anthony Murphy, House prices and inter-regional migration in the UK British team and Spanish team, Job satisfaction and two-earners households Aico van Vuuren, The relationship between expectations of labor market status, homeownership and the duration of unemployment 29 Andrew Oswald, University of Warwick, Does Happiness Adapt? A Longitudinal Study of Disability with Implications for Economists and Judges

October 2 Bernard Salanié, CREST, Paris, Heterogeneous Preferences Towards Risk: A Study on Horse Races (joint with P.A. Chiappori and A. Ghandi) 10 Andrew Clark, PSE, Paris, Kahneman meets the Quitters: Peak-End Behaviour in the Labour Market 17 Rafael Lalive, University of Zurich, Does Parental Leave A ect Fertility and Return-toWork? Evidence from a ”True Natural Experiment” 24 Inigo Iturbe-Ormaetxe (Universidad de Alicante) Public Transfers to the Poor: Is really Europe more Generous than the United States? (with Dolores Collado) 31 Libertad Gonzàlez, Universidad Pompeu Fabra, Barcelona, The Effect of Divorce Laws on Divorce Rates in Europe November 7 Paul Bingley, Aarhus University, Financial Return to Education: Evidence from the Population of Danish twins 7 Michele Belot, UvA 14 Hélène Turon, University of Bristol, On-the-job Search, Productivity Shocks and the Individual Earnings Process 14 Joop Hartog, UvA, A Risk Augmented Mincer Earnings Equation ? Taking Stock 17 Job Market Day 21 Iwan Barankay, University of Warwick, How to Make Friends and Influence Them: Evidence on the Formation of Social Networks and Peer Effects (with Oriana Bandiera and Imran Rasul) 21 Evgenia Motchenkova, VU, Stricness of Leniency Programs and Cartels of Asymmetric Firms 28 Ken Burdett, University of Pensylvania, Wage/Tenure contracts with Heterogeneous Firms (with Melvyn Coles) 28 Adam Booij, UvA, A Parameter-Free Analysis of the Utility of Money for the General Population under Prospect Theory (joint with G. van de Kuilen) December 11 Amil K. Petrin, University of Chicago, Job Security does Affect Economic Efficiency: Theory, A New Statistic, and Evidence from Chile 11 Jaap Abbring, VU, Last-In First-Out Oligopoly Dynamics (with Jeffrey R. Campbell) 19 Thijs van Rens, Universidad Pompeu Fabra, Barcelona, Wage Rigidity and Job Creation (with Christian Haefke and Marcus Sonntag) 19 Randolf Sloop, UvA Guests: Amsterdam: − Dr. Rob (P.) Gilles, Virginia Tech, USA, from January 2 until June 30 − Aura Reggiani, Università di Bologna, August 7 – September 29 − (Mr.) Mircea Trafandir, Maryland, from February 27 until Friday March 3 − Prof. Dr. Yoshitsugu Yamamoto, University of Tsukuba, from February 1 until February 28 − Jim Albrecht and Susan Vroman, Georgetown University, Washington, from December 11 until December14

2.4

ECONOMETRICS

Co-ordinators: S.J. Koopman, VU R. Dekker, EUR Research Fellows: EUR: R. Dekker, D.J.C. van Dijk, H.K. van Dijk, Honorary Fellow, P.H.B.F. Franses, J.B.G. Frenk, T. Kloek, Honorary Fellow, R. Paap, H.P.G. Pennings, A.P.M. Wagelmans UvA: H.P. Boswijk, M.J.G. Bun, J.S. Cramer, Honorary Fellow, N.M. van Dijk, K.J. van Garderen, J.G. de Gooijer, M.J. Goovaerts, J.F. Kiviet VU: C.S. Bos, B. Heidergott, S.J. Koopman, D.A. van der Laan, H.C. Tijms, Honorary Fellow Junior Research Fellows: EUR: D. Fok VU: I. Vis PhD Students: EUR: G. Budai, until 01/10/06, A. van Dijk, as from 01/09/04, R.P. Nicolai, as from 01/06/03, M.D. de Pooter, as from 16/03/03, F. Ravazzolo, as from 01/09/03, R. Segers, as from 16/05/04. UvA: Y. Cheng, until 01/09/06, Z. Gao, as from 01/09/06, A. al-Ibrahim, as from 14/11/03, J. Niemczyk, as from 01/11/04, C.J. Ariza Rojas, as from 01/10/04, Y. Zu, as from 01/09/06. VU: A.I.W. Hindrayanto, as from 01/09/03, B.M.J.P. Jungbacker, H. Leahu, J.W. van der Straaten, as from 01/05/04, T. Yuan, as from 01/09/05, S.Y. Wong, as from 01/09/04. Discussion Papers: 027 046 058 076 078 079 101 105

H.P. Boswijk, UvA; D. Fok, P.-H. Franses, Department of Econometrics, EUR, A New Multivariate Product Growth Model Roger Lord, EUR; Remmert Koekkoek, Robeco Alternative Investments; Dick van Dijk, EUR, A Comparison of Biased Simulation Schemes for Stochastic Volatility Models Ao Yuan, Howard University; Jan G. De Gooijer, UvA, Semiparametric Regression with Kernel Error Model Michiel D. de Pooter, René Segers, Herman K. van Dijk, EUR, On the Practice of Bayesian Inference in Basic Economic Time Series Models using Gibbs Sampling Jan F. Kiviet, Jerzy Niemczyk, UvA, The Asymptotic and Finite Sample Distributions of OLS and Simple IV in Simultaneous Equations H. Peter Boswijk, UvA; Roy van der Weide, World Bank, Wake me up before you GO-GARCH Siem Jan Koopman, Marius Ooms, Irma Hindrayanto, VU, Periodic Unobserved Cycles in Seasonal Time Series with an Application to US Unemployment Siem Jan Koopman, Soon Yip Wong, VU, Extracting Business Cycles using Semi-parametric Time-varying Spectra with Applications to US Macroeconomic Time Series

Thesis Defences: Antoine van der Ploeg, 10 February, Stochastic Volatility and the Pricing of Financial Derivatives, Profs. H.P. Boswijk,and F.C.J.M. de Jong Lennart F. Hoogerheide, 29 June, Essays on Neural Network Sampling Methods and Instrumental Variables, Prof. H.K. van Dijk

Seminars: Tinbergen Institute Amsterdam January 13 Jeremy Large, Oxford, Estimating Quadratic Variation When Quoted Prices February 24 Monica Billio, University of Venice, Granger-causality in Markov Switching Models March 8 Double Seminar Andrew Harvey, Cambridge University, Time-varying Quantiles Michel Lubrano ,GREQAM, Marseille, A Minimum Hellinger Distance Estimator for Stochastic Differential Equations: An Application to Statistical Inference for Continuous Time Interest Rate Models 17 Kevin Lee, Leicester, Real Time Representations of the Output Gap (with Anthony Garratt, Emi Mise, and Kalvinder Shields) 29 Yanqin Fan, Vanderbilt University, Maximization by Parts in Extremum Estimation (with Sergio Pastorello, Eric Renault) 31 Cesar Ariza, UvA, Saddlepoint Approximation of the Density of the MLE of the Mean for the Normal Distribution with Fixed Coefficient of Variation April 6 Professor Uri Yechiali, Dept. of Operations Research, Tel-Aviv University, Analysis of Customers Impatience in Queues with Server Vacations 7 Sylvia Fruhwirth-Schnatter, Johannes Kepler University, Linz, Econometric Modelling of Discrete-valued Data Using Auxiliary Mixture Sampling May 12 Jan F. Kiviet, UvA and Jerzy Niemczyk, UvA, On the Limiting and Empirical Distribution of IV Estimators when some of the Instruments are Invalid 19 Steve Bond, Oxford & IFS, Uncertainty and Investment Dynamics June 2 Jonathan Dark (Monash University, Australia, A New Long Memory Volatility Model with Time Varying Skewness and Kurtosis 9Econometric Institute 50 year 10 16 Seminar, Econometric Institute 50 year 23 Uwe Hassler, Goethe-University Frankfurt, Long Memory Testing in the Time Domain 30 Piet de Jong, Macquarie University, Adverse Selection Spirals September 15 Felisa J. Vázquez-Abad, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne, Australia, Urban Legend Busted: The IPA Method May Not Be the Holy Grail of Gradient Estimation (Joint work with Bernd Heidergott and Warren Volk-Makarewicz) October 6 Peter E. Kennedy, Simon Fraser University, When Are Supply and Demand Determined Recursively Rather than Simultaneously? Another Look at the Fulton Fish Market Data 20 Murray D.Smith, University of Sydney, Dependence Structures in Microeconometrics 24- Second Korea-Netherlands Conference on Queueing Theory and its Applications to 27 Telecommunication Systems: Choi ,Korea University, Performance Analysis of IEEE 802.15.4 in Non-Beacon Mode under Non-Saturated Condition (joint work with T.O. Kim) B. Kim, Korea University, Stability of Jackson Type Networks with Multi-Server Stations and Alternate Routes (joint work with J.G. Dai and J.J. Hasenbein) J.A.C. Resing, Eindhoven University of Technology, Queues with Service Speed Adaptations (joint work with R. Bekker and O. Boxma) R.D. van der Mei, CWI, Analysis of Polling Systems with Two-Stage Gated Service: Fairness Versus Efficiency (joint work with J.A.C. Resing) Y. Lee, Donguei University, Analysis of slotted CSMA/CA in IEEE 802.15.4 WPAN C.G. Park ,Sunmoon University, Queueing Analysis of IEEE 802.11 MAC Protocols in a

Wireless LAN N.M. van Dijk, UvA, Two Basic Queueing Problems with Communications (joint work with Erik van der Sluis) S.K. Cheung, University of Twente, Insensitive Bounds for the Moments of the Sojourn Time Distribution in the M/G/1 Processor-Sharing Queue (joint work with J.L. van den Berg and R.J. Boucherie) J.S.H. van Leeuwaarden, Eindhoven University of Technology, The M/D/s Queue, the Halfin-Whitt Regime and the Gaussian Random Walk (joint work with A.J.E.M. Janssen and A.P. Zwart) B.D. Choi, Korea University, Analysis of Sleep Mode for Best Effort traffic in IEEE 802.16e (joint work with Y.K. Baek) R. Litjens, TNO Information and Communication Technology, Performance Analysis of Access Selection and Transmit Diversity in Multi-Access Networks (joint work with F. Berggren) W.R.W. Scheinhardt, University of Twente, Asymptotics for Networks of Two Fluid Queues (joint work with I.J.B.F. Adan, M.R.H. Mandjes, and E. Tzenova) T. Kim, Korea University, Efficient Polling Scheduler for IEEE 802.11 WLAN (joint work with J. Koh) Y.H. Chung, Korea Telecom, Internet Traffic Characteristics of Residential Subscribers I.J.B.F. Adan, Eindhoven University of Technology, Mean Value Analysis for Polling Systems M. Jonckheere, CWI, Stability of Multi-Class Queueing Systems with State-Dependent Service Rates (joint work with S.C. Borst) J.L. van den Berg, TNO Information and Communication Technology, Performance Modeling of a Bottleneck Node in an IEEE 802.11 Ad-hoc Network (joint work with M.R.H. Mandjes and F. Roijers) M.R.H. Mandjes, UvA, A Fluid System with Coupled Input and Output, and Its Application to Bottlenecks in Ad Hoc Networks (joint work with F. Roijers) G..U. Hwang, KAIST, Cross-layer Design and Analysis of Wireless Networks with Effective Bandwidth Function (joint work with F. Ishizaki) F. Ishizaki, Korea University, Delay Performance under the Joint Scheduling over GilbertElliot Channel (joint work with G.U. Hwang) H.C. Tijms, VU, Negative Probabilities in the Finite-Buffer M/D/1 Queue: Positive Results (joint work with K. Staats) R. Nunez-Queija, CWI and TNO Information and Communication Technology, TCP as an Implementation of Age-Based Scheduling: Fairness and Performance (joint work with A.A. Kherani) O.J. Boxma, Eindhoven University of Technology, On a Queueing Model with Service Interruptions (joint work with O. Kella and M.R.H. Mandjes) November 3 Jonathan Hill, Florida International University, Robust Tests of Extremal Volatility Spillover with an Application to Extremal Asset Market Contagion. 3 Francisco Saldanha da Gama, Department of Statistics and Operational Research/Operational Research Centre, Faculty of Science, University of Lisbon, Portugal, Reformulating Location Models by Discretization 10 Joakim Westerlund, Lund University, Sweden, Simple Tests for Cointegration in Dependent Panels with Structural Breaks 17 Marc Paolella, ISB Zurich, An Econometric Analysis of Emission Trading Allowances 24 Charles Bos, TI & Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Model-based Estimation of High Frequency Jump Diffusions with Microstructure Noise and Stochastic Volatility December 1 Christian Hafner, Stat, UCL, Asymptotic Theory for Multivariate GARCH Models 15 Andreas Löpker, University of Osnabrueck, Martingales, Generators and Piecewise Deterministic Markov Processes

Tinbergen Institute Rotterdam: January 5 Frank Kleibergen, UvA, and Brown University, Tests of Risk Premia in Linear Factor Models February 23 Ben Tims, EUR, Purchasing Power Parity and Heterogeneous Mean Reversion March 9 Valentyn Panchenko, UvA, Estimating and Evaluating the Predictive Abilities of the Semiparametric Copula-based Multivariate Models 11 Erik Kole, EUR, Crash Risk in the Cross Section of Asset Returns 30 Kevin Sheppard, University of Oxford, Realized Covariance and Scrambling April 6 Peter Wakker, EUR, Adapting De Finetti’s Proper Scoring Rules for Measuring Bayes’ Subjective Probabilities when Those Probabilities are not Bayesian 20 Ralf van der Lans, EUR, Brand Salience in Brand Search 27 Marcelo Medeiros, Pontifica’ Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro, Asymmetric Effects and Long Memory in the Volatility of DJIA Stocks May 18 Michael Ehrmann, ECB, Monetary Policy in the Media June 14- Lecture series by Ariel Pakes, Harvard University, Empirical Analysis and Econometrics in 16 Applied Industrial Organization, Econometric Institute and Princeton University Press September 5 Rodney W. Strachan, University of Leicester, Weakly Informative Priors and Well-Behaved Bayes Factors October 5 Birgit Strikholm, Stockholm School of Economics, Testing the Granger Noncausality Hypothesis in Stationary Nonlinear Models of Unknown Functional Form 12 José Luis Aznarte, Universidad de Granada, Time Series Analysis: Relations amongst Statistical and Fuzzy Logic-based Models 19 Mohamad Khaled, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne Paris I, A Multivariate Generalization of the Markov Switching Model November 2 Geert Dhaene, KU Leuven, Jackknife Bias Reduction for Nonlinear Dynamic Panel Data Models with Fixed Effects 7 Christian Henning, University College London, A General Stability Measure for Cluster Analysis 30 Helena Chulia Soler, University of Valencia, The Economic Value of Volatility Transmission between the Stock and Bond Markets December 14 Henk Don, EUR, Schuldpolitiek, Vergrijzing en de Verkiezingen

3

OTHER RESEARCH ACTIVITIES

3.1

PhD Students:

Some of the students cannot be classified in one of the TI-research groups concerning the content of their subjects, but are affiliated with the Tinbergen Institute: EUR:. UvA: S.W. Bissessur, until 01/09/06, F. Felsö, as from 01/09/03, R. Haijema, as from 01/09/02, N.J. Leefmans, until 01/10/06, K.P.A.B. Schreuder, until 01/05/06, E.R. de Wit, as from 01/09/06.. VU: L.C.M. Agterberg, as from 01/09/06, P.M. Bal, as from 01/08/05; L. Crul, as from 01/09/03, S.C.P.J. Go, as from 01/01/02, X.J. de Graaf, until 01/09/06, V. Kartseva, as from 01/10/03, T.A.M. Kooij, as from 01/09/06, J. Liu, as from 01/03/06, S. Meents, until 01/09/06, M.J. Reinders, until 01/09/06, J.A.B. Walschots, as from 01/09/04.

3.2

Thesis Defences:

Zuzana Šašovová, 30 June, The Dynamic Effects of Social Networks during a Large-scale Information System Implementation, Prof. M. Newman

3.2

Research on Monday

Series XX January 30 Andrea Galeotti, Caltech University, and Essex, Network Games February 6 Thierry Post, EUR, Deal or No Deal; Decision Making in a Large Payoff Setting 13 Wilhelm Kohler, Tübingen, Immigration and Native Welfare 27 Lex Borghans, Maastricht University, Is there a Link betweeen Economic Outcomes and Genetic Evolution? Cross-country Evidence from the Major Histocompatibility Complex March 6 Frank Verboven, Leuven, Entry and Regulation: Evidence from Health Care Professions 13 Douglas Irwin, Dartmouth, Tariff Incidence in America’s Gilded Age 20 Dermot Leahy, University College Dublin, Vertical Integration versus Outsourcing in International Oligopoly 27 Dorothea Kübler, TU Berlin, Job Market Signaling and Screening: An Experimental Comparison April 3 Rob Alessie, Utrecht University, Saving and Cohabitation: The Economic Consequences of Living with One’s Parents in Italy and The Netherlands 10 Ray Rees, Münich Universität, On Piecewise Linear Tax System 24 Patrick van Cayseele, KU Leuven, Complementarity Platforms: The Economics of Securities Safekeeping and Custody May 1 William J. Ethier, University of Pennsylvania, The Theory of Trade Policy and Trade Agreements: A Critique 8 Peter Kort, University of Tilburg, A Non-Monotonic Uncertainty Effect in the Value of Waiting to invest 22 Aner Sela, University of Bonn, The Theory of Assortative Matching based on Costly Signals Organisation: Bas Donkers, Robert Dur, Joseph Francois, and Enrico Pennings, all EUR. Series XXI

September 25 Joe Francois, EUR, Deconstructing EU Trade Policy October 2 Ernst Maug, Universität Mannheim, Insider Trading Legislation and Acquisition Announcements: Do Laws matter? 9 Ralph Bayer, University of Adelaide, Tax Compliance and Firms’ Strategic Interdependence 16 Massimo Marinacci, University of Turin, Ambiguity Aversion, Robustness, and the Variational Representation of Preferences 30 Alan Manning, LSE, Respect November 6 Michael Katz, UC Berkeley, Information and the Hold-up Problem 13 Franc Klaassen, UvA, Are Economic Agents Successful Optimizers? An Analysis through Service Strategy in Tennis 20 Chris Starmer, University of Nottingham, Why does Market Experience eliminate Some Preference Anomalies, and create New Ones? 27 Stefano Breschi, Bocconi University, Mobility of Inventors and the Geography of Knowledge Spillovers December 4 Gani Aldashev, Namen, The Internationalization of NGOs and the Competition on the Markets for Donations 11 Roland Strausz, Freie Universität Berlin, Planned Obsolescence and the Provision of Unobservable Quality 18 Jacob Sagi, UC Berkeley, Modeling Implications of Source-invariance to Machina’s ‘Almost Objective Fair Bets’ Organisation: Ingolff Dittman, Bas Donkers, Robert Dur, Joseph Francois, Enrico Pennings, all EUR.

3.3

TI Financial Support

The Tinbergen Institute gives financial contributions to conferences and workshops, organised by researchers allied to the institute. In 2006 the following activities have been realised with support of TI: 50 Years Econometrics - The 50th Anniversary of the Econometric Institute December 15, 2006 Welcome address by Luc Bauwens, Université Catholique de Louvain Session 1 Chair: Eric Renault, University of North Carolina Chapel Hill Invited lecture Tom Sargent, New York University, Fragile Beliefs and the Price of Model Uncertainty Discussant: Herman van Dijk, EUR Jean Boivin, HEC Montréal, DSGE Models in a Data-Rich Environment Session 2 Chair: Dick van Dijk, EUR Monica Billio, Università di Venezia, Phase-Locking and Switching Volatility in Hedge Funds Erik Kole, EUR, Crash Risk in the Cross Section of Stock Returns Elena Andreou, University of Cyprus, Quality Control for Structural Credit Risk Models Session 3 Chair: Philip Hans Franses, EUR Invited lecture James Hamilton, University of California San Diego, Daily Monetary Policy Shocks and the Delayed Response of New Home Sales Discussant: Massimiliano Marcellino, Bocconi University Simon van Norden, HEC Montréal, Modeling Data Revisions: Measurement Error and Dynamics of True Values Poster session 1 Mohamad Khaled, University of Paris I, A Multivariate Generalization of the Markov-switching Model Jean-Yves Gnabo, FUNDP, Does Transparency in Central Bank Intervention Policy Bring Noise to the FX Market? Peter Schotman, Maastricht University, Robust Portfolio Optimisation with Multiple Experts Kirstin Hubrich, European Central Bank, Inflation Co-Movements and Differences Within the Euro Area An Investigation of Disaggregate Regional and Sectoral Inflation Rates Biing-Shen Kuo, National Chengchi University, Nonlinear Inflation Risk: Toward Resolving the Forward Premium Anomaly Angel Liao, Unversity of Wales, Bangor, Financial Integration and Price Discovery Ad Stokman, De Nederlandsche Bank, Regime Transplants in GDP Growth Forecasting: A Recipe for Better Predictions? Simon Potter, Federal Reserve Bank of New York – Re-examining the Consumption-wealth Relationship Costas Milas, Keele University – Testing the Opportunistic Approach to Monetary Policy Simone Manganelli, European Central Bank, Asset Allocation by Penalized Least Squares Javier Guillermo Gomez, Banco de la República, Capital Flows and Monetary Policy Alessandro Flamini, Keele University – ‘Taylored’ Rules. Does One Fit, or Hide All? Crina Pungulescu, Tilburg University, Model Uncertainty, Financial Market Integration and the Home Bias Puzzle Jose Gonzalo Rangel, New York University, News, Announcements, and Stock Market Volatility Dynamics Kerstin Bernoth, De Nederlandsche Bank, The Futures Premium Puzzle Typical V-Shape Denise Osborn, University of Manchester, The New Keynesian Phillips Curve: From Sticky Inflation to Sticky Prices Peter Reinhard Hansen, Stanford University, Model Confidence Sets for Forecasting Models Govert Bijwaard, EUR, Does Rounding Matter? René Segers, EUR, Do the Leading Indicators Lead Peaks More Than Troughs?

Ser-Huang Poon, University of Manchester, Modelling Contagion in International Stock Markets Using Copula and Risk Appetite Charles Bos, UvA, Model-based Estimation of High Frequency Jump Diffusions with Microstructure Noise and Stochastic Volatility Pierre Giot, University of Namur, Commonalities in the Order Book Eric Girardin, GREQAM, The Effects of Monetary Policy in China Since 1997 Lieven Baele, Tilburg University, Does the Stock Market Value Bank Diversification? Session 4 Chair: Hans-Martin Krolzig, University of Kent Silvia Sgherri, European Central Bank,, Unnaturally Low? Barbara Rossi, Duke University, Optimal Impulse Response Function Matching Estimation George Monokroussos, SUNY Albany, Dynamic Limited Dependent Variable Modeling and US Monetary Policy Session 5 Chair: H. Peter Boswijk, UvA Invited lecture Frank Schorfheide, University of Pennsylvania, Monetary Policy with Potentially Misspecified Models Discussant: Raf Wouters, National Bank of Belgium Lynda Khalaf, Carleton University, Structural Multi-Equation Macroeconomic Models: A System-Based Estimation and Evaluation Method Session 6 Chair: Peter Hansen, Stanford University Ilias Tsiakas, University of Warwick, An Economic Evaluation of Empirical Exchange Rate Models: Robust Evidence in Favor of Predictability Roland Meeks, Nuffield College, High Dimensional Yield Curves: Models and Forecasting Eric Renault, University of North Carolina Chapel Hill, Implications of Asymmetry Risk for Portfolio Analysis and Asset Pricing Session 7, Chair: Peter Schotman, Maastricht University Invited lecture Geert Bekaert, Columbia University, New-Keynesian Macroeconomics and the Term Structure Discussant: Denise Osborn, University of Manchester John Driffill, Birkbeck College, University of London, Inertia in Empirical Taylor Rules Poster session 2 Michel van der Wel, VU, The Informativeness of Customer Order Flow following Macroeconomic Announcements: Evidence from Treasury Futures Markets Rachida Ouysse, University of New South Wales, Bayesian Variable Selection of Risk Factors in the APT model Ana Maria Herrera, Michigan State University, Dynamic Censored Regression and the Open Market Desk Reaction Function Yarema Okhrin, European University, Frankfurt, Flexible Shrinkage in Portfolio Selection Jerome Lahaye, FUNDP, Central Bank Intervention and Exchange Rate Volatility, Its Continuous and Jump Components Dick van Dijk, EUR, Instability and Nonlinearity in the Euro Area Phillips Curve David Veredas, University of Brussels, Does the Open Limit Order Book Matter in Explaining Long Run Volatility? Ana Beatriz Galvao, Queen Mary, University of London, The Changing Effect of the Yield Curve on GDP Growth Noud van Giersbergen, UvA, The Effect of a Feedback Mechanism on the Bias in the Stable AD(1,1 Model Fabio Fornari, European Central Bank, Compensation for Volatility Risk in Interest Rate Markets Hans-Martin Krolzig, University of Kent, Impulse-Response Analysis in Markov Switching Vector Autoregressive Models Andres Gonzalez, Banco de la Republica, Modelling and Forecasting Inflation in the Presence of Gradual Change Jan Groen, Bank of England, Investigating the Structural Stability of the Phillips Curve Trade-Off

Francesco Bianchi, Princeton University, The UK Great Stability: a View from the Term Structure of Interest Rates Andrea Cipollini, University of Essex, Dynamic Factor Analysis of Industry Sector Default Rates and Implications for Portfolio Credit Risk Modelling Koen Inghelbrecht, Ghent University, Structural versus Temporary Drivers of Country and Industry Risk Herman van Dijk, EUR, Evidence on the Likelihood and Importance of the Liquidity Trap in the UK, the USA and Japan Umberto Triacca, University of L'Aquila, Estimating Volatility of an Asset Return by using Generalized Dynamic Factor Model Approach Christiaan Heij, EUR, Time Series Forecasting by Principal Covariate Regression Luca Fanelli, University of Bologna, Evaluating the New Keynesian Phillips Curve under VAR-based Learning Elena Pesavento, Emory University, Oil Price Shocks, Systematic Monetary Policy and the Great Moderation Ümit Özlale, TOBB University of Economics and Technology, Does Inflation Targeting Matter? Evidence From The Industrialized Countries Francesco Violante, FUNDP and CORE, Comparing and Ranking Covariance Structures of M-GARCH Volatility Models Francesco Ravazzolo, EUR – Predicting the Term Structure of Interest Rates: Incorporating Parameter Uncertainty, Model Uncertainty, and Macro-Economic Information Session 8 Chair: Luc Bauwens, Université catholique de Louvain Arnab Bhattacharjee, University of St. Andrews, Taking Personalities out of Monetary Policy Decision Making? Interactions, Heterogeneity and Committee Decisions in the Bank of England's MPC Carlo Altavilla, University of Naples Parthenope, Inflation Forecasts, Monetary Policy and Unemployment Dynamics: Evidence from the US and the Euro Area Sophocles Mavroeidis, Brown University, Testing the New Keynesian Phillips Curve Without Assuming Identification

PhD Lunch Seminars Lunch seminars are organised at the Amsterdam and the Rotterdam locations. Each week a PhD student presents a paper. The paper is commented on by another student or research fellow, in front of an audience of students and research fellows. Tinbergen Institute Amsterdam January 31 Ronald Wolthoff, VU, Coordination Frictions, Heterogeneity and Multiple Applications February 21 René Haijema, UvA, Blood Platelet Production: Optimization by Dynamic Programming and Simulation 28 Marco van der Leij, EUR, Economics: An Emerging Small World March 7 Irma Reci, VU, Unemployment Insurance Benefits – Trap or Bridge? Longitudinal Evidence from The Netherlands 1985-2000 14 Ferdinand Vieider, EUR, Causes of Ambiguity Aversion: Known Versus Unknown Utilities 21 Martin v Gaudecker, Mannheim Research Institute for the Economics of Aging---MEA, The Impact of Income Shocks on Health: Evidence from English Cohorts (joint with Jerome Adda and James Banks) 28 Amine Ouazad, CREST and Center for the Economics of Education, Peer Effects in English Primary Schools (joint with Eric Maurin and Sandra McNally) April 4 Michal Krawczyk, UvA, It Hurts More to Lose an Unfair Game. A Model of Preference for Procedural and Distributive Justice 11 Jaap Abbring, Tinbergen Institute, Mixed Hitting-Time Models 18 Pietro Dindo, UvA, Informational Differences in an Asset Market with Boundedly Rational Agents 25 Michel van der Wel, VU, Trading Treasuries Around Macroeconomic Announcements May 2 Irma Hindrayanto, VU, Periodic Unobserved Cycles in Seasonal Time Series: Identification and Estimation (joint with Prof. Dr. Siem Jan Koopman and Dr. Marius Ooms) 9 Alex Halsema, VU, Managing Multiple Fishery Pools: Property Right Regimes and Market Structures (Joint with Cees Withagen) 16 Francesco Ravazzolo & Chen Zhou, The Power of Weather 30 Suncica Vujic, VU, Crime and Education: New Evidence from Britain June 6 13 20 27

Yinyen Tseng, VU, Valuation of Travel Time Reliability for Railway Passengers Liselore Crul, VU, Institutional logics: When does What Matter? Tijmen Daniëls, UvA, Self Fulfilling Debt Crises Jeroen Walschots, VU

September 12 Jian Huang, UvA, Are There Social Benefits to Higher Education Achievement? Does Gender Make a Difference? 26 Floris Heukelom, UvA, Economics’ Psychology

October 3 10 17 24 31

Lei Pan, VU, Risk Pooling and Transfers in Rural Ethiopia Matthijs Bal, VU, The Relationship between Ageing and the Psychological Contract: A Meta-analysis of 20 years Research Tijmen Daniëls, UvA, Social Choice, , and Logic Sandra Philippen, EUR, When Clusters Become Networks Brian Wong, VU, Business Cycles and Semi-Nonparametric Estimation of Time-Varying Parameters in the Frequency Domain

November 7 14 21 28

Bob Rietveld, VU, Market Strategic Innovativeness; Conceptualization and Impact of an Overlooked Dimension of Market Strategy Eva van den Broek, UvA, Trust Your Own Eyes- Reputation Versus Experience in a Trust Game (joint with Astrid Hopfensitz) Audrey Hu, UvA, Auction under Moral Hazard Marcos Poplawski Ribeiro, UvA, The effectiveness of the Maastricht Treaty and the Stability and Growth Pact: Evidence from the OECD

December 5 19

Vilen Lipatov, IUE, Tax Evasion and Coordination Julia Mensink, London School of Economics, Economic Indicators as Products: The Human Development Index from a Business Point of View

Organisation: Tijmen Daniëls (Spring), Lei Pan (Spring) and Floris Heukelom (Fall) Tinbergen Institute Rotterdam: January 18 Marco van der Leij, EUR, An Emerging Small World February 23 Thierry Post, EUR, Deal or NoDeal? Decision Making Under Risk In A Large Pay-Off Game Show March 2 Guido Baltussen, EUR, Decision Making Behaviour 9 Lenny Pattikawa, EUR, Evaluating New Brand Performance Using Stock Market Analysis: the Case of Pharmaceutical Brands 16 Ludo Waltman, EUR, Q-Learning Agents in a Cournot Oligopoly Model 23 Francesco Ravazzolo, EUR, Bayesian Model Averaging 30 Chen Zhou, EUR, A 2-step Estimator of the Extreme Value Index April 6 Eddy Bekkers, EUR, Heterogeneous Productivity in Monopolistic Competition Models of International Trade 13 Michiel de Pooter en Mariëlle Non, EUR, Going where the Ad leads you: On High Advertised Prices and Searching where to buy 20 Matthijs Wildenbeest, EUR, Identification and Semi-Nonparametric Estimation of Search Costs 27 Ward van den Berg, EUR, Private Equity Waves May 4 Haris Munandar, EUR, Human Capital Formation and Income Inequality 11 René Segers, EUR, Do the Leading Indicators Lead Peaks More Than Troughs? October 26 Maarten Janssen, EUR, Do Auctions select Efficient Firms? November 2 Joao Quariguasi, A Framework for Assessing Eco-Efficiency 9 Francesco Ravazzolo, EUR, Predicting the Term Structure of Interest Rates 16 Carlos Hernandez Mireles, EUR, When should Nintendo launch its Wii? 23 Michiel de Pooter, EUR, Examining the Nelson-Siegel Class of Models – In-sample Fit vs. Outof-sample ForecastingPerformance 30 Ward van den Berg, EUR, The Role of Consolidators, Targets and Passive Observers in a Consolidating Industry December 7 Mariëlle Non, EUR, The Relation betwee Interlocking Boards and Performance of the Firm: An Exploratory Analysis 14 Robin Nicolai, EUR, A General Framework for Statistical Inference of Discrete Event Systems 21 Martijn Kagie, EUR, Graphical Shopping Interfaces: Adding a New Dimension to Recommender Systems

Organised by Mariëlle Non and Michiel de Pooter (Spring) and by Bram van Dijk and René Segers (Autumn).

Other activities: Economics Colloquia, Series Lunch Seminars February 16 Ulrich Horst, British Columbia, Non-Ergodic Behavior in a Financial Market With Interacting Investors 23 Jacques Melitz, Strathclyde, North, South and Distance in the Gravity Model March 2 9 Peter Claeys, Florence, Crowding Out in Europe 16 Jürgen Huber, Innsbruck Properties of an Experimental Financial Market with Asymmetrically Informed Traders 23 Matthias Sutter, Innsbruck, Choosing the Stick or The Carrot? - Endogenous Institutional Choice in Social Dilemma Situations 30 Carlos Alós-Ferrer, Konstanz April 6 Harry Huizinga, Tilburg, International Profit Shifting within European Multinationals 20 Stephanie Rosenkranz, Utrecht, Structure Versus Risk: An Experimental Investigation of the Determinants of Investment Decisions in Networks 27 May 4 Veronica Rappoport, Columbia Business School, Persistence of Dollarization after Price Stabilization 11 18 Martin Kocher, Innsbruck, Limited Contracts - Extended Efficiency. Do Collective Contracts Increase Labor Market Efficiency? June 8 Hashem Pesaran, Cambridge, Survey Expectations September 7 Veronica Rappoport, Columbia Business School, Persistence of Dollarization after Price Stabilization 28 Florian Englmaier, Harvard Business School, A Strategic Rationale for Having Overconfident Managers 28 Florian Englmaier, Harvard Business School

October 12 26

Esfandiar Maasoumi, Southern Methodist University, A Reexamination of the Equity Premium Puzzle: A Robust Nonparametric Approach Evi Pappa, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Capital Maintenance and the Propagation of Technology Shocks

November 16 23

Volker Nitsch, Free University Berlin, The Trade Effects of the Euro: A Deeper Look Inside Sebastiano Manzan, University of Leicester, A Semiparametric Analysis of Gasoline Demand in US: Re-examining the Impact of Price (joint work with Dawit Zerom) 30 Károly Takacs, Uni Groningen, Smiling Contributions: Social Control in a Public Goods Game with Network Changes December 7 Ettore Dorrucci, European Central Bank 14 Engelbert Dockner, University of Vienna, Leaders, Followers, and Risk Dynamics in Industry Equilibrium Organisation: Franc Klaassen, Aljaz Ule, Mikhail Anufriev

FaDo Lunch Seminars February 9 Aart de Vos, VU, Econometrics and Operations Research, Optimal Audit Systems 23 Gert Jan Linders, VU, Regionale Economie, Estimation of The Gravity Equation of Bilateral Trade in the Presence of Zero-Flows March 9 Sandy Dall’Erba, VU, Regionale Economie, Regional Convergence and the Impact of EU Structural Funds, a Special Econometric Analysis 23 Paul Jansen/Peter Risseeuw, VU, Management and Organisation, The Profits of Pay for Profit April 6 Svetlana Khapova, VU, Management and Organisation, The Subjective Career in the Knowledge Economy 27 Maura Soekijkad, VU, Knowledge Creation is Safer than Sharing in Co-opetitive Environments 18 Riccardo Calcagno, VU, Finance and Financial Sector Management, June 1 Leo Paas, Marketing September 28 Pieter Gautier (AE) "Grow Rich While You Sleep": A Dictator-Game-Field Experiment

October 12 26

Claartje Vinkenburg (M&O) Managerial Careers In The Arena Stefan Hochguertel, Early Retirement Incentives, Self-employment, and Voluntary Unemployment Insurance: Evidence from Administrative Data (joint with M. Ejrnaes, Copenhagen)

November 9

Ziv Baida (I&L) Ontology Based Analysis Of E-Service Bundles For Networked Enterprises 23 Albert Menkveld (BFS) Competition For Order Flow And Smart Order Routing Systems? December 7 Josje Dikkers (M&O) Work-Home Interactions 21 Claudia Van Der Heijde (M&O) The Role Of Mobility For Career Development Among ICT Professionals In European Smes December 11 Bart Van Den Hooff (I&L) Managing Knowledge Sharing: Emergence Vs Engineering Organisation: Roman Kraeussl, Irene Lammers and Ina Putter

EuReka Lunch Seminars January 31 Moshe Givoni, VU, Aircraft and High Speed Train Substitution: The Case for Airline and Railway Integration February 21 Mark Koetse, VU, Capital-Energy Substitution Potential and Shifts in Factor Demand: A Meta-Analysis March 7 Ghebre Debrezion, VU, The Effect of Local Railway Accessibility Index on House Prices: Spatial Autocorrelation Model 21 Mediha Sahin, Ethnic Employees’behaviour Vis-À-Vis Customers in the Service Sector April 11 Alex Halsema, VU, Managing Multiple Fishery Pools: Different Property Right Regimes and Market Structures Analyzed 18 Roberto Patuelli, Spatial and Space-Time Structure of German Unemployment Data May 2 Eveline van Leeuwen, VU, Contemporary Functions of Small and Medium-Sized Towns: A

9 16 30 June 13

Study of Consumption Patterns in the UK and The Netherlands Gaston Chang, Accessibility of Industrial Sites, the Employers´ Perspectives Romy Zhang, Travel Time Uncertainty and Willingness to Pay for Information Willem Loonen, Spatial Optimization in Land Use Allocation Luke Brander, VU, The Recreational Value of Coral Reefs: A Meta-Analysis

October 3 17 31

Thomas de Graaf, VU, A Cross-Country Comparison of the Impact of Housing Market Institutions on Labour Mobility Jeroen van den Bergh, VU, Evolution and Transitions: Efficiency Versus Diversity Laura de Dominicis, Spatial Distribution of Economic Activities in Local Labour Larket Areas: the Case of Italy

November 14

Soushi Suzuki, VU, A Public Participation Support System Based on Multi Criteria Analysis - An Application to HOKKAIDO SIRAOI Town, 4th Comprehensive Plan 28 Jasper Knockaert, The Welfare Cost of More Fuel Efficient Cars December 12 Roos Andadari, VU, Local Clusters in Global Chains: The Evolution of the Jepara Wood Furniture Industry 19 Jos van Ommeren, The Effect of Search Imperfections on Commuting Behaviour: Evidence from Employed and Self-Employed Workers Organisation: Eric Pels

Field Workshops January 13 Industrial Organisation / Public Economics, Economic Theory / Experimental Economics Prof. G. van der Laan, VU Dr. R.A.J. Dur, EUR, Status-Seeking in Violent Subcultures and the Double Dividend of Zero-Tolerance Prof. C. Hommes, UvA, Heterogeneous Agent Models in Economics and Finance: Theory, Laboratory Experiments and Empirical Testing Prof. Th. Offerman, UvA, Doing a Ph-D at Creed 20 Prof. Philip Hans Franses, EUR Prof. Peter Boswijk, UvA Prof. Siem Jan Koopman, VU 27 Spatial and Environmental Economics Henri de Groot, Institutional and Cultural Determinants of Bilateral Trade and FDI Cees Withagen, The Alberta Dilemma – Optimal Sharing of a Water Resource By an Agricultural and an Oil Sector Erik Verhoef, Time-Dependent Values of Time and Trip Scheduling for Commuters – Theory and Empirics Organisation: Reshma Jitbahadoer